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DOE OSTI2026

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shedding light on the economic costs of long-duration power outages: A review of resilience assessment methods and strategies

Here this paper provides a literature review of methods and modeling techniques to estimate the cost of power system outages, along with the value of outage mitigation or system resilience. Regulators, policymakers, and infrastructure owners have a growing need to understand the methods for estimating the benefits of resilience improvements of electric infrastructure against natural and man-made disasters. There is a broad literature that estimates the cost of short-duration outages and a small but developing literature on estimating the cost of long-duration outages. This article reviews the models used to estimate the cost of outages and discusses their relative strengths. Additionally, this paper identifies key questions from stakeholders regarding resilience investment and maps them to the relevant models that would help answer them. We include recommendations for future work to include recent advances in regional economic modeling that can estimate region and demographic-specific costs and the distributional consequences of potential resilience projects.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing building resilience in cold climates: Integrating heat pump technologies with renewable energy

As electrification advances and Cold Climate Heat Pump technology progresses, ensuring grid stability becomes increasingly critical for effective heating in cold climates. However, natural disasters, especially during winter, pose significant threats to grid stability, impacting the reliability of air-source heat pumps. Despite these challenges, the integration of renewable energy sources and storage solutions in heating systems has not been extensively studied within the context of resilience. Here, this paper delves into the literature on renewable-powered heat pumps to assess their potential in enhancing building resilience in U.S. cold climate zones, which are particularly susceptible to extreme weather and grid disruptions. By leveraging renewable sources—solar, geothermal, and water—in conjunction with heat pump technology and supported by thermal or battery storage, this approach aims to provide a dependable solution for maintaining indoor heating during grid failures. Our analysis begins with a review of various renewable energy sources suitable for heat pumps, followed by an exploration of their application in cold climate regions across the U.S., and discussions on potential integration strategies with heat pump systems. This study highlights the advantages and suitability of solar irradiance and geothermal resources, emphasizing the importance of tailored, site-specific assessments to maximize energy efficiency and resilience. Additionally, it outlines the economic and environmental considerations necessary for implementing such systems and identifies potential challenges and areas for future research to facilitate the broader integration of renewable energy in heating solutions for enhanced resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Post-extreme-event restoration using linear topological constraints and DER scheduling to enhance distribution system resilience

In this paper, a post-extreme-event restoration (PEER) algorithm is proposed to improve distribution system resilience. Linear topological constraints are proposed to ensure radial topology after N-k contingencies, possibly in multiple islands. The approach is made comprehensive by considering dispatchable distributed energy resources (DERs), non-dispatchable DERs, and demand responses, as well as on-load tap changers (OLTCs) and shunt capacitors. The goal is to minimize the accumulative expense caused by load reduction payment or penalty, as well as DER operation cost. As a result, the overall system will survive longer with higher resilience during an extreme event. To verify the effectiveness of the PEER algorithm, we proposed a resilience evaluation algorithm using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with reduced scenarios. This is based on a probabilistic model for generating random scenarios which consider the uncertainty of line faults and solar irradiance. Combined with the proposed PEER algorithm, this reduced-scenario MCS can evaluate the expected energy not served (EENS) which is an essential index for distribution system resilience. Case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems validate the proposed algorithm in reducing EENS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Achieving ultrahigh modulus of resilience and enhanced thermal stability in ZnO x /SU-8 interpenetrating network polymer nanocomposite nanopillars

The modulus of resilience, a mechanical property that quantifies the maximum strain energy density a material can store during elastic deformation, is a crucial parameter for materials used in flexible displays, micro/nano-electro-mechanical system (M/NEMS) actuators, and ultra-sensitive pressure sensors. In this study, ZnO x /SU-8 nanocomposite nanopillars with a diameter of 300 nm, fully infiltrated with a uniformly distributed, interpenetrating amorphous ZnO x filler network, were synthesized via vapor-phase infiltration (VPI). In-situ uniaxial nano-compression tests revealed that the modulus of resilience of ZnO x /SU-8 reaches ∼ 12 MJ/m 3 , which is an ultrahigh value among all engineering materials with comparable strength. In addition, the synthesis fidelity, inorganic infiltration depth, and mechanical performance were all significantly improved compared to VPI-synthesized AlO x nanocomposites. Thermal stability, another key requirement for M/NEMS device materials operating under extreme environments, was also notably enhanced. Furthermore, partial crystallization of the amorphous ZnO x fillers during annealing contributed to an additional increase in modulus of resilience, reaching up to ∼ 13.9 MJ/m 3 . This work presents an effective fabrication strategy for producing nanostructured organic–inorganic hybrid nanocomposites with ultrahigh modulus of resilience and superior thermal stability, paving the way for their integration into next-generation flexible displays and high-performance M/NEMS devices working under harsh environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards

Civil infrastructure systems are subjected to multiple hazards, including natural and anthropogenic, that disrupt their function or the level of service offered. Estimating the function recovery of these systems (or how soon normalcy of operations will be restored) when subjected to repeated hazard events by considering the inter-event dependencies is an important problem in multihazard infrastructure resilience. However, this problem has been less addressed in the field. This paper proposes a series of semi-Markov processes model to capture the inter-event dependencies in infrastructure recovery when subjected to successive hazard events. Recovery after each new hazard event is represented by a unique semi-Markov process that models the reduced recovery rates and the increased recovery times caused by the system’s incomplete recovery from the preceding event. Two novel formulations of the inter-event dependency modeling, namely Maximal Effects Dependency (considers the worst impact of two successive hazard events) and Cumulative Effects Dependency (considers the aggregated impacts of two successive hazard events), are proposed and discussed. The model is demonstrated by considering the following applications: Three-state system subjected to deterministic and random occurrences of identical hazard events; and Multihazard resilience of a building in Charleston, SC, considering earthquake and hurricane hazards. Results indicate that considering inter-event dependencies in recovery modeling can lead to lesser-predicted resilience, thereby affecting resilience-based decision-making.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Resiliency-based restoration optimization for dependent network systems against cascading failures

Due to the increasing importance of large-scale and complex network systems and the potential for massive cascading failures in these real-world systems, modeling of system resiliency and optimization of restoration strategies to mitigate system performance loss caused by diverse disruptions is of significant interest among researchers and practitioners. Although society has experienced many incidents that demonstrate the influence of cascading failures aggravated by dependencies inside network systems, existing resiliency-based restoration optimization research rarely if ever jointly considers the impact of system dependencies on cascading failures. In this paper, different restoration prioritization strategies are applied to network systems subject to cascading failures that take into account system dependencies. By conducting case studies on synthetic networks and the U.S. airport network system, the effects of restoration strategies are evaluated using a system resiliency metric and two system performance measurements. Furthermore, the influence of system dependency characteristics and the interplay between them and restoration strategies on system resiliency regarding cascading failures are also investigated. This work demonstrates the distinct effects of restoration prioritization actions against cascading failures to mitigate the performance loss in network systems with different properties. It also provides insights about restoration improvement by considering dependency impacts to effectively reduce the intensity and extent of cascading failures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic pre-event preparation for enhancing resilience of distribution systems

Extreme weather events are the common causes for power supply interruptions and power outages in electrical distribution systems. Improving the distribution system and enhancing its resilience is becoming crucial due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Preparation and allocation of multiple flexible resources, such as mobile resources, fuel resources, and labor resources before extreme weather events can mitigate the effects of extreme weather events and enhance the resilience of power distribution systems. Here, in this paper, a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) is proposed to optimize the preparation and resource allocation process for upcoming extreme weather events, which leads to faster and more efficient post-event restoration. The objective of the proposed two-stage SMILP is to maximize the served load and minimize the operating cost of flexible resources. The first stage in the optimization problem selects the amounts and locations of different resources. The second stage considers the operational constraints of the distribution system and repair crew scheduling constraints. The proposed stochastic pre-event preparation model is solved by a scenario decomposition method, Progressive Hedging (PH), to ease the computational complexity introduced by a large number of scenarios. Furthermore, to show the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on system resilience, three types of PV systems are considered during a power outage and the resilience improvements with different PV penetration levels are compared. Numerical results from simulations on a large-scale (more than 10,000 nodes) distribution feeder have been used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cyber–physical vulnerability and resiliency analysis for DER integration: A review, challenges and research needs

High penetration of renewable and sustainable Distributed Energy Resources (DER) into the traditional distribution system requires a well-coordinated control strategy for the improvement of system-wide reliability and resiliency. Implementation of such a holistic control architecture requires a flexible, near real-time, and bi-directional communication framework for facilitating the participation of various agents in a multi-vendor heterogeneous smart grid. While the sustainability of energy generation is ensured, this exposes the smart grid to extrinsic cyber threats, and appropriate defense mechanism(s) must be deployed to guarantee continued reliability and resiliency of the power grid. Further, the comprehensive literature review presented in this paper discusses the latest trends in the DER control schemes with fast communication requirements and their accompanying cyber–physical vulnerabilities. These control schemes are compared and contrasted for various traits. A three-level DER system architecture has been depicted, facilitating the deployment of these control schemes. The current developments of standard communication protocols, key security mechanisms, and best practices along major standards and guidelines are explored. The impacts of different attack types with miscellaneous DER functions based on various control schemes and associated mitigation solutions are also provided. Finally, challenges and future research directions for limiting cyber-power susceptibility to enhance resiliency are summarized. The work presented here will help us enabling a cyber-resilient and sustainable smart electric grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Survey on Social Media to Enhance the Cyber-PhysicalSocial Resilience of Smart Grid

Smart sensor that enables power grid resiliency at distribution network is a very expensive solution and its implementation has been very sluggish. Social media has great potential to become an alternate abstract information channel that can replace/reinforce smart sensor capabilities towards a more resilient power grid. In this paper, we present a survey on the progress of utilizing social media as a platform to extract and analyse abstract data to produce intelligent information. This information can be utilized to plan and implement resources towards power grid resiliency from micro level (consumers) to macro level (cities/states). This paper discusses the reliability of social sensors, various concepts relating to social media and their implementation to solve problems, and how we can develop a framework based on the social media towards a resilient power grid. The realization of social media framework for information will benefit as robust communication and control channels that can be used together with prediction models to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of system operators' decision-making.

DISASTER RESPONSE, HASHTAGS, POWER GRID RESILIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Role of Building Codes and Controls in Enhancing Community Resilience

Countries, states, and cities around the world are seeking to enhance power sector resilience through a combination of policy and technology. However, few of these efforts fully incorporate the built environment into power sector planning. Buildings account for more than a third of the global annual energy consumption and more than 60% of the annual electricity consumption. As such, buildings play a critical role in enhancing resilience in the power sector. Buildings can aid in power sector resilience by increasing power system flexibility, shaving and shifting demand, and providing on-site energy generation. All of these strategies require incentives to encourage participation. This paper presents an overview of energy management strategies to better incorporate building design and operation in power sector resilience planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Investigating the Interplay between Energy Efficiency and Resilience in High Performance Computing

Energy efficiency and resilience are two crucial challenges for HPC systems to reach exascale. While energy efficiency and resilience issues have been extensively studied individually, little has been done to understand the interplay between energy efficiency and resilience for HPC systems. Decreasing the supply voltage associated with a given operating frequency for processors and other CMOS-based components can significantly reduce power consumption. However, this often raises system failure rates and consequently increases application execution time. In this work, we present an energy saving undervolting approach that leverages the mainstream resilience techniques to tolerate the increased failures caused by undervolting.

failures↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Review of Smart Grid Restoration to Enhance Cyber-Physical System Resilience

The growth in electricity demand and the development of grid modernization have increased the complexity of power grid and driven the grid more vulnerable to extreme events like environmental disasters or man-made attacks. Those disruptions can cause outages, cascading failures, and blackouts. The objectives of this paper are to 1) review the recent development addressing the aforementioned challenges with the focus on the impact of extreme events on power system resilience, and 2) discuss the application of smart grid technologies to provide faster restoration techniques and enhance power system resilience. Moreover, challenges and opportunities for future work to enhance smart grid resilience have also been discussed in this paper. The ultimate goal is to present a summary of state-of-the-art and stimulate interests in the area of cyber-physical- human resilience of smart grid.

Man-made attacks↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Power Grid Resilience with Causal Loops Diagram and Bayesian Networks

Enhancing power grid resilience through improved analysis and planning of Distributed Energy Resources is a key for power system planner. This paper explores the integration of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Bayesian Networks (BNs) for enhancing resilience in power systems, focusing on Distributed Energy Resources (DER) planning. By automating CLD analysis in Python's matplotlib, we present a tool for rapid model validation and structural accuracy, crucial for power system planners. This hybrid approach utilizes BNs for inferential depth and CLDs for dynamic system modeling, offering a comprehensive framework for policy formulation and collaborative strategy development against disruptions. Here, we highlight the tool's capability to identify and analyze interconnected feedback loops, facilitating a deeper understanding of DER integration's impact on network resilience. This work aims to bridge quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, addressing the limitations of each method while providing a robust model for power system resilience assessment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-objective Microgrid Assessment and Sizing Framework for Economic and Resilience Benefits

This paper presents an innovative multi-objective assessment and sizing framework for battery energy storage system paired with photovoltaics for a cost-effective and resilient microgrid. In the proposed framework, we simultaneously consider i) economic benefits from bundling grid services in grid-connected mode and ii) enhanced resilience by operating the microgrid in island mode upon outages of the main grid. Instead of simply treating resilience as another monetary value stream, this paper models resilience and economic benefits as two separate objectives. Multi-objective optimization is developed to explore different sizing and dispatch options and generate the Pareto front to assist decision-making in system design. Case studies on a real-world microgrid project in Puget Sound Energy system are presented to illustrate the proposed modeling and sizing methods.

Battery energy storage, Microgrid, Optimal Sizingp↗

DOE OSTI2017

Electricity Distribution System Resilient Control System Metrics

In order to assess the resilience of a system, a set of measures must be defined. Varying control architecture while considering such a system of metrics targeted at resilience can determine the relative merit of the architectures with respect to the resilience of the system. Traditionally, electricity distribution is concerned with delivery of power from transmission or sub transmission to consumer loads with basic control of tap changing transformers and capacitor banks to regulate delivered voltage and provide reactive power support, respectively. In the near future, modern distribution systems architecture are anticipated to include substantially more controllable assets enabling more complicated control architectures to optimized based on reliability and economics. This paper reports on the definition of resilience metrics developed for modern distribution systems for delivery of electricity. Specifically, the metrics are focused on adaptive capacity related to the scale for which the system is able to resist, respond, recover and restore after disturbances in real or reactive power and time requirements to respond and restore the system to a complete normalcy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

A metric framework for evaluating the resilience contribution of hydropower to the grid

This paper will describe a proposed framework for expressing the resilience of hydropower generation and provide initial case studies for three classes of hydropower, run-of-river hydropower, hydropower with reservoirs, and pumped storage hydropower. Hydropower has great flexibility to provide support during and after natural and man-made events that can disrupt critical infrastructure functionality. The concept of the framework provides for consideration of policy and rules, constraints of the water shed and other allocations of water, storage and plant capabilities to produce real and reactive power, and the strength of the delivery network. The paper details a resilience response metric that has inputs of state of storage and plant level constraints on real and reactive power production. Using the definition of resilience, based on maintaining a minimally normal operations, we provide a qualitative assessment of hydropower’s ability to address the various time scales comprising the “R”s of resilience.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗