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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1989

Optical interferometers for tests of relativistic gravity in space

A space-based astrometric interferometer with a large optical bandwidth is considered. POINTS (Precision Optical INTerferometry in Space) would measure the angular separation of two stars separated by about 90 deg on the sky with a nominal measurement error of 5 microarcseconds (mas). For a pair of mag 10 stars, the observation would require about 10 minutes. It is estimated that the instrument would measure daily the separation of two stars for each of about 60 pairs of stars; a random sequence of such measurements, if suitably redundant, contains the closure information necessary to detect and correct time dependent measurement biases to well below the nominal measurement accuracy. The 90 deg target separation permits absolute parallax measurements in all directions. A redundant observing schedule for 300 stars and 5 quasars would provide extra redundancy to compensate for the quasars' higher magnitude. If a nominal 30-day observation sequence were repeated 4 times per year for 10 years, stellar parameter uncertainties would be obtained of: 0.6 mas, position; 0.4 mas/y, proper motion; and 0.4 mas, parallax. This set of well-observed stars and quasars would form a rigid frame and the stars would serve as reference objects for measurements of all additional targets, as well as being targets of direct scientific interest. The instrument global data analysis since objectives are considered including a relativity test and technology.

Reasenberg, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Probabilistic Design Method Applied to Smart Composite Structures

A probabilistic design method is described and demonstrated using a smart composite wing. Probabilistic structural design incorporates naturally occurring uncertainties including those in constituent (fiber/matrix) material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and control-related parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity factors are computed to identify those parameters that have a great influence on a specific structural reliability. Two performance criteria are used to demonstrate this design methodology. The first criterion requires that the actuated angle at the wing tip be bounded by upper and lower limits at a specified reliability. The second criterion requires that the probability of ply damage due to random impact load be smaller than an assigned value. When the relationship between reliability improvement and the sensitivity factors is assessed, the results show that a reduction in the scatter of the random variable with the largest sensitivity factor (absolute value) provides the lowest failure probability. An increase in the mean of the random variable with a negative sensitivity factor will reduce the failure probability. Therefore, the design can be improved by controlling or selecting distribution parameters associated with random variables. This can be implemented during the manufacturing process to obtain maximum benefit with minimum alterations.

Shiao, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Safety Performance of Airborne Separation: Preliminary Baseline Testing

The Safety Performance of Airborne Separation (SPAS) study is a suite of Monte Carlo simulation experiments designed to analyze and quantify safety behavior of airborne separation. This paper presents results of preliminary baseline testing. The preliminary baseline scenario is designed to be very challenging, consisting of randomized routes in generic high-density airspace in which all aircraft are constrained to the same flight level. Sustained traffic density is varied from approximately 3 to 15 aircraft per 10,000 square miles, approximating up to about 5 times today s traffic density in a typical sector. Research at high traffic densities and at multiple flight levels are planned within the next two years. Basic safety metrics for aircraft separation are collected and analyzed. During the progression of experiments, various errors, uncertainties, delays, and other variables potentially impacting system safety will be incrementally introduced to analyze the effect on safety of the individual factors as well as their interaction and collective effect. In this paper we report the results of the first experiment that addresses the preliminary baseline condition tested over a range of traffic densities. Early results at five times the typical traffic density in today s NAS indicate that, under the assumptions of this study, airborne separation can be safely performed. In addition, we report on initial observations from an exploration of four additional factors tested at a single traffic density: broadcast surveillance signal interference, extent of intent sharing, pilot delay, and wind prediction error.

Consiglio, Maria C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

What we Hope to Learn about Global Mineral Dust Aerosols from EOS Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR)

On global scales, just a few broad atmospheric aerosol compositional groups are commonly observed. Of these, "mineral dust" is the only group which both contains non-spherical particles, and typically has size distributions with enough large particles for particle shape to affect its visible-light-scattering properties. The MISR instrument is scheduled for launch into a 10:30 AM sun-synchronous, polar orbit aboard the EOS Terra satellite in 1999. MISR will measure the upwelling visible radiance from Earth in 4 spectral bands centered at 446, 558, 672, and 866 nm, at each of 9 emission angles spread out in the forward and aft directions along the flight path at +/-70.5 deg, +/-60.0 deg, +/-45.6 deg, +/-26.1deg, and nadir. Over a period of 7 minutes, as the spacecraft flies along, a 360 km wide swath of Earth will successively be viewed by each of the cameras, allowing MISR to sample a very large range of scattering angles; in mid latitudes, the instrument will observe scattering angles between about 60 deg and 160 deg. Global coverage will be acquired about once in 9 days at the equator; the nominal mission lifetime is 6 years. The distinction in single scattering phase function between natural distributions of spherical and randomly oriented, non-spherical particles, with a broad range of aspect ratios, shows up strongly for scattering angles ranging from about 90 deg to near 180 deg. For non-spherical particle distributions, single scattering phase functions tend to be much flatter in this region than for spherical particles. Since MISR samples the relevant range of scattering angles very well, we expect to be able to make critical distinctions between natural distributions of spherical and randomly oriented, non-spherical particles with MISR data. We anticipate that the new multiangle, multispectral data from MISR will also contain other information about particle properties, a major step beyond current spacecraft remote sensing retrievals, which obtain aerosol optical depth based on entirely assumed particle microphysical properties. According to simulations over cloud-free, calm ocean, for pure particles with natural ranges of optical depth, particle size, and indices of refraction, MISR should retrieve column optical depth for all but the darkest particles, to an uncertainty of at most 0.05 or 20%, whichever is larger, even if the particle properties are poorly known. For one common particle type, soot, constraints on the optical depth over dark ocean are very poor. The simulated measurements also should allow us to separate two to four compositional groups based on indices of refraction, and to identify three to four distinct size groups between 0.1 and 2.0 microns characteristic radius at most latitudes. The technique is most sensitive to particle microphysical properties in the "accumulation mode" sizes. where particle scattering undergoes the transition from Rayleigh to large-particle regimes for the MISR wavelengths. Based on these results, we expect to distinguish air masses containing different aerosol types, routinely and globally, with multiangle remote sensing data. Such data complements in situ and field data, which can provide details about aerosol size and composition locally that are needed to assess the radiative effects of aerosols quantitatively. Both field data and correlations in space and time with likely source and sink regions will also be helpful in developing a global picture of mineral dust aerosol budgets. Further work on the expected sensitivity of MISR to natural mixtures of pure particles, including climatologically likely mineral dust components, is currently underway.

Kahn, Ralph↗
NASA NTRS1999

Detection in fixed and random noise in foveal and parafoveal vision explained by template learning

Foveal and parafoveal contrast detection thresholds for Gabor and checkerboard targets were measured in white noise by means of a two-interval forced-choice paradigm. Two white-noise conditions were used: fixed and twin. In the fixed noise condition a single noise sample was presented in both intervals of all the trials. In the twin noise condition the same noise sample was used in the two intervals of a trial, but a new sample was generated for each trial. Fixed noise conditions usually resulted in lower thresholds than twin noise. Template learning models are presented that attribute this advantage of fixed over twin noise either to fixed memory templates' reducing uncertainty by incorporation of the noise or to the introduction, by the learning process itself, of more variability in the twin noise condition. Quantitative predictions of the template learning process show that it contributes to the accelerating nonlinear increase in performance with signal amplitude at low signal-to-noise ratios.

NASA Center ARC↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

Fox, Eric P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Computational methods for structural load and resistance modeling

An automated capability for computing structural reliability considering uncertainties in both load and resistance variables is presented. The computations are carried out using an automated Advanced Mean Value iteration algorithm (AMV +) with performance functions involving load and resistance variables obtained by both explicit and implicit methods. A complete description of the procedures used is given as well as several illustrative examples, verified by Monte Carlo Analysis. In particular, the computational methods described in the paper are shown to be quite accurate and efficient for a material nonlinear structure considering material damage as a function of several primitive random variables. The results show clearly the effectiveness of the algorithms for computing the reliability of large-scale structural systems with a maximum number of resolutions.

Thacker, B. H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation of 3D Woven Design Sensitivities Using a Rapid Multiscale Analysis Technique

Highly-refined finite element models of three-dimension (3D) woven composite systems currently require excessive computational demands that limit their use in sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. An alternative analysis methodology was developed using the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) where multiscale models of a 3D woven composite (including inter-tow matrix voids and constituent failure) can be completed on a single central processing unit (CPU) on the order of ~30s. To develop inputs and validation data for the NASMAT model, coupon and acid-digesting testing and x-ray computed tomography were performed. The NASMAT inputs were parameterized using a set of 25 input variables and distributions. These inputs were randomly sampled to generate a total of 100,000 NASMAT analyses that could be used to understand the influence of different material and geometric properties on the warp and weft-direction stiffness and strength. These analyses (including pre/post-processing) were performed in less than eight hours on a 120 CPU cluster. The computational efficiency of the NASMAT model enabled a sensitivity analysis to be performed, and dominant input variables were able to be identified. Key results were consistent with theoretical and experimental observations for the specific 3D woven system studied in this work.

NASMAT↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation of 3D Woven Design Sensitivities Using a Rapid Multiscale Analysis Technique

Highly-refined finite element models of three-dimension (3D) woven composite systems currently require excessive computational demands that limit their use in sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. An alternative analysis methodology was developed using the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) where multiscale models of a 3D woven composite (including inter-tow matrix voids and constituent failure) can be completed on a single central processing unit(CPU)on the order of ~30 s. To develop inputs and validation data for the NASMAT model, coupon and acid-digesting testing and x-ray computed tomography were performed. The NASMAT inputs were parameterized using a set of 25 input variables and distributions. These inputs were randomly sampled to generate a total of 100,000 NASMAT analyses that could be used to understand the influence of different material and geometric properties on the warp and weft-direction stiffness and strength. These analyses (including pre/post-processing) were performed in less than eight hours on a 120 CPU cluster. The computational efficiency of the NASMAT model enabled a sensitivity analysis to be performed, and dominant input variables were able to be identified. Key results were consistent with theoretical and experimental observations for the specific 3D woven system studied in this work.

NASMAT↗
NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Improved Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and nonconvective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud-resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain-rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in TMI instantaneous rain-rate estimates at 0.5 -resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. Errors in collocated spaceborne radar rain-rate estimates are roughly 50%-80% of the TMI errors at this resolution. The estimated algorithm random error in TMI rain rates at monthly, 2.5deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm day.1) in comparison with the random error resulting from infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8%-35% at the same rain rate). Percentage errors resulting from sampling decrease with increasing rain rate, and sampling errors in latent heating rates follow the same trend. Averaging over 3 months reduces sampling errors in rain rates to 6%-15% at 5 mm day.1, with proportionate reductions in latent heating sampling errors.

Olson, William S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Olson, William S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Rectification of terrain induced distortions in radar imagery

This paper describes a technique to generate geocoded synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery corrected for terrain induced geometric distortions. This algorithm transforms the raw slant range image, generated by the signal processor, into a map registered product, resampled to either Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) or Polar Stereographic projections, and corrected for foreshortening. The technique utilizes the space platform trajectory information in conjunction with a digital elevation map (DEM) of the target area to generate an ortho-radar map with near-autonomous operation. The current procedure requires only two to three tie-points to compensate for the platform position uncertainty that results in translational error between the image and the DEM. This approach is unique in that it does not require generation of a simulated radar image from the DEM or a grid of tie-points to characterize the image-to-map distortions. Rather, it models the inherent distortions based on knowledge of the radar data collection characteristics, the signal Doppler parameters, and the local terrain height to automatically predict the registration transformation. This algorithm has been implemented on a minicomputer system equipped with an array processor and a large random-access memory to optimize the throughput.

Kwok, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS1994

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 30: Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC) and the communication of technical information in aerospace

This research used survey research to examine the use of communication media in general and electronic media specifically in the U.S. aerospace industry. The survey population included 1,006 randomly selected U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists who belong to the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). Survey data were compared with qualitative information obtained from 32 AIAA members in telephone and face-to-face conversations. The Information Processing (IP) model developed by Tushman and Nadler and Daft and Lengel constituted the study's theoretical basis. This research analyzed responses regarding communication methods of U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists who create use and disseminate aerospace knowledge and explored selected contextual environmental variables related to media use and effective performance. The results indicate that uncertainty is significantly reduced in environments when levels of analyzability are high. When uncertainty is high there is significantly more use of electronic media. However no relation was found between overall effectiveness and media use in environments stratified by levels by analyzability or equivocality. The results indicate modest support for the influences of uncertainty and analyzability on electronic media use. Although most respondents reported that electronic networks are important for their work the data suggest that there are sharply disparate levels of use.

Murphy, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Higher-Order Statistical Moments of Predicted Sonic Boom Waveforms Through Turbulence

Sonic booms generated by supersonic aircraft are affected by turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer through which they propagate. Turbulence effects lead to random variability of the sonic boom waveforms measured on the ground, complicating the prediction of such waveforms. As an initial effort to predict the waveform variability, the solution of the coherent or mean sonic boom waveform has previously been formulated by the author. The current paper extends the formulation to derive an expression of the second-order statistical moment necessary to calculate the variance of the spectral amplitudes. Since the derivation uses a full wave equation, results using the derived expression will be compared with those obtained using a parabolic approximation. In order to fully quantify the uncertainty of our predictions, the higher order statistical moments are also formulated and are shown to be approximately zero. Consequently, the probability density function (pdf) of the spectral amplitudes is predicted to be Gaussian. The formulation is further extended to determine the pdf of the loudness of sonic booms and quantify the uncertainties associated with the loudness prediction. Results from the formulation are compared with available flight test data.

sonic booms↗
NASA NTRS1979

Semiconvection and period changes in RR Lyrae stars

The possibility is considered that convective mixing inherently associated with composition redistribution inward through a semiconvective zone (SCZ) and into the convective core by the end of the horizontal-branch (HB) phase may be primarily responsible for the observed period changes in RR Lyrae stars. Specifically, it is proposed that the period changes in RR Lyrae stars are caused mainly by small random mixing events within the SCZ and at the edge of the convective core. Tests of several HB models that include semiconvection are presented which demonstrate that stellar evolution cannot satisfactorily account for the observed period changes but that mixing events involving only a very small part of the SCZ or a very small extension of the convective core are sufficient to change the pulsation period of an RR Lyrae star by the amount typically observed. The frequency of the period changes is predicted theoretically and found to be in good agreement with the observed value within the substantial uncertainties involved. A procedure is outlined for future period-change testing of HB models.

Sweigart, A. V.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Prediction of the structure of fuel sprays in gas turbine combustors

The structure of fuel sprays in a combustion chamber is theoretically investigated using computer models of current interest. Three representative spray models are considered: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, which assumes infinitely fast interphase transport rates; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, which considers finite rates of interphase transport but ignores effects of droplet/turbulence interactions; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, which considers droplet/turbulence interactions using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for droplet motion and transport. Two flow conditions are studied to investigate the influence of swirl on droplet life histories and the effects of droplet/turbulence interactions on flow properties. Comparison of computed results with the experimental data show that general features of the flow structure can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using the two separated flow models. In contrast, the LHF model overpredicts the rate of development of the flow. While the SSF model provides better agreement with measurements than the DSF model, definitive evaluation of the significance of droplet/turbulence interaction is not achieved due to uncertainties in the spray initial conditions.

Shuen, J. S.↗