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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Gaining Perspective on Unconventional Well Design Choices through Play-level Application of Machine Learning Modeling

The recent development of unconventional oil and gas (O&G) reservoirs has led to an abundant hydrocarbon supply, both domestically and globally. However, there is a continued push to develop new and innovative approaches to improve exploration and extraction efficiencies and overall well productivity moving forward. Substantial improvements in unconventional O&G development are expected through optimized well completion and stimulation strategies aimed at maximizing well productivity. Optimizing well designs will require tailoring to the distinctive geologic conditions present for any newly placed well. To better evaluate the impact of well design attributes and their associated interactions on productivity in a major unconventional play, multivariate machine learning-based models that use empirical datasets were developed. A gradient boosted regression tree (GBRT) algorithm was applied. GBRT has been narrowly investigated for O&G applications but enables straightforward parametric importance and influence evaluation, as well as assessment of parameter interaction effects. Models were trained on well design and locational parameters that serve as a proxy for variable geologic conditions to estimate two types of productivity indicator response variables strongly correlated to estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). The dataset utilized consists of over 7,000 well observations that cover the majority of the productive region of the Marcellus Shale. Model performance was evaluated and algorithm parameters tuned by analyzing the goodness-of-fit for simulated results against observed data in a cross-validation approach. Models were found capable of 73–79 percent prediction accuracy on held out testing data of gas equivalent production and can be used to inform future well design and placement decisions for increasing EUR per well and improving overall field-level recovery. Study results indicate that Marcellus well performance improves most with upscaling perforated interval lengths and water and proppant volumes per foot; but relative productivity improvements are spatially dependent across the play. Finally, optimal combinations of water and proppant on well performance were found to vary depending on well location, emphasizing the utility of data-driven models capable of broad application across a play of interest for informing tailored well design approaches prior to their field deployment.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seismic H2: Version 1.0

Seismic-H2 is an integrated software package for geological hydrogen reservoir simulation, optimization, and leakage monitoring. The package includes multiple components: (1) code used for modeling seismic wave propagation in 3D heterogeneous elastic media based on finite-difference method to support detection of geological hydrogen storage reservoir leakage; (2) 3D reservoir simulations of leaks from an underground reservoir and 3D simulations of saline aquifers and depleted gas reservoirs; (3) seismic monitoring costs of passive and active seismic monitoring required for UHS; (4) rock physics calculations and interpolations for converting the reservoir simulations from part (2) into the elastic media models in part (1); (5) pre-processing seismic data; and lastly (6), a GUI interface that combines these different components.

Creasy, Neala↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpretation of borehole strain measurements using surrogate modeling-based optimization

Interpreting strain data measured during well testing requires inverting poroelastic forward models set up to represent an aquifer or reservoir. One approach is to use stochastic methods to conduct the inversion. Subsurface parameters such as elastic modulus, permeability, and geometry of heterogeneities are estimated by searching the parameter space. This is feasible, but cumbersome, requiring more than a week of computation using many hundreds of computer nodes in one of our earlier analyses. This motivated us to consider alternative methods, including an artificial neural network (ANN) as a surrogate model.

Roudini, Soheil↗
DOE OSTI2023

A 1D Model for Nucleation of Ice From Aerosol Particles: An Application to a Mixed‐Phase Arctic Stratus Cloud Layer

Abstract Mixed‐phase clouds (MPCs) have been identified as significant contributors to uncertainties in climate projections, attributable to model representation of processes controlling the formation and loss of supercooled water droplets and ice particles from the atmosphere. Arctic MPCs are commonly widespread and long‐lived, with sustained ice crystal formation processes that challenge current understanding. This study examines the ice‐nucleating particle (INP) reservoir dynamics governing immersion‐mode heterogeneous freezing in an observed case of Arctic MPCs using a simplified 1D aerosol‐cloud model. The model setup includes prescribed dynamical forcings and thermodynamic profiles, and represents INPs as multicomponent and polydisperse particle size distributions. Diagnostic and prognostic approaches to immersion freezing parameterization are compared, including time‐independent (singular) number‐ and surface area‐based descriptions and a time‐dependent description following classical nucleation theory (CNT). The choice of freezing parameterization defines the size of the INP reservoir. The CNT‐based description yields an orders of magnitude larger INP reservoir than the singular parameterizations, which is the dominant factor for sustained ice crystal formation. The efficiency of the freezing process and cloud cooling are of secondary importance. A diagnostic treatment neglecting INP loss is only accurate when the INP reservoir size is large and INP depletion weak. Since a larger INP reservoir sustains ice crystal formation substantially longer, and ice water path scales with ice crystal concentrations for the conditions considered, resolving the source of differences in INP reservoir dynamics due to model implementation is a high priority for advancing climate model physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamic Modeling of Heat Engines Including Heat Transfer and Compression–Expansion Irreversibilities

In this paper, a thermodynamic model based on an endoreversible engine approach is developed to analyze the performance of heat engines operating under different thermodynamic cycles. The model considers finite heat transfer rate, variable heat source and sink temperatures, and irreversibilities associated with the expansion and compression. Expressions for the maximum power and efficiency at maximum power output are obtained as a function of hot and cold reservoir temperatures, the equivalent isentropic efficiency of compression and expansion components, and the effective conductance ratio between heat exchangers. In all cases, the Curzon–Ahlborn efficiency is retrieved at constant reservoir temperatures and neglected compression–expansion irreversibilities. The proposed model allows assessing the effect of isentropic efficiencies and heat exchanger design and operation characteristics for different thermodynamic cycles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Risk Considerations of Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to CO2 storage Field: Case Study

In the United States (U.S.), carbon dioxide (CO2) injection wells at EOR sites are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. A CO2-EOR facility considering a transitioning from tertiary oil recovery to injecting CO2 for the primary purpose of long-term storage is required to obtain a Class VI permit where this transition poses an increased risk to underground sources of drinking water. This study considers how transitioning operations from CO2-EOR to storage can impact reservoir plume and pressure transient in the storage envelope, and how these changes could impact area of review and potential unwanted fluid migration. We developed a case study to assess subsurface response and leakage risks associated with a representative, hypothetical operation in a carbonate reservoir. This reservoir transitions from tertiary hydrocarbon recovery to dedicated GCS. Reservoir simulations were run for a set of credible CO2-EOR scenarios to estimate distributions of fluids phases and pressures throughout the model domain after CO2 flooding as well as forecasting the behavior of the reservoir after the transition to a dedicated storage phase. The evolutions from all simulated scenarios were used as the basis for leakage risk quantification using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) with a novel reduced-order model to estimate time-dependent leakage of CO2, brine, and hydrocarbon fluids through potentially leaky wells. Results include a description of reservoir response, an estimate of the areal extent that could potentially be impacted by leakage to underground sources of drinking water, and estimates of the magnitude of potential leakage. Considerations for dedicated storage injection well selection, injectivity, and injection scheme performance and potential leakage risk are presented, with implications for risk assessment of well transition discussed. This study presents a risk-based workflow for the Class II to Class VI well transition. Integrating credible numerical simulation of viable CO2-EOR to dedicated CO2 storage with quantitative risk assessment tools, such as the NRAP-Open-IAM, will provide a valuable means to devise operational scenarios and inform decision-making related to storage benefit, leakage risk, and liability. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Liu, Guoxiang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Induced microearthquakes predict permeability creation in the brittle crust

Predicting the evolution of permeability accurately during stimulation at the reservoir scale and at the resolution of individual fractures is essential to characterize the fluid transport and the reactive/heat-transfer characteristics of reservoirs where stress exerts significant control. Here, we develop a hybrid machine learning (ML) model to visualize in situ permeability evolution for an intermediate-scale (~10 m) hydraulic stimulation experiment. This model includes an ML model that was trained using the well history of flow rate and wellhead pressure and MEQ data from the first three stimulation episodes to predict average permeability from the statistical features of the MEQs alone for later episodes. Moreover, a physics-inspired model is integrated to estimate in situ fracture permeability spatially. This method relates fracture permeability to fracture dilation and scales dilation to the equivalent MEQ magnitude, according to laboratory observations. The seismic data are then applied to define incremental changes in permeability in both space and time. Our results confirm the excellent agreement between the ground truth and model-predicted permeability evolution. The resulting permeability map defines and quantifies flow paths in the reservoir with the averaged permeability comparing favorably with the ground truth of permeability.

induced seismicity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Persistence of negative vacancy and self-interstitial formation energies in atomistic models of amorphous silicon

We use classical potential atomistic modeling to demonstrate that negative vacancy and selfinterstitial formation energies are inherently present in amorphous silicon (a-Si). Our conclusions are based on comprehensive calculations of vacancy and self-interstitial formation energies in nine different models, ranging in size from 1000 to 2744 atoms and formed by quenching liquid Si at rates between 10 10 and 10 12 K/s. We account for a range of possible reference energies corresponding to different choices of reservoirs for atoms inserted into or removed from our models. Moreover, we show that successive addition of either vacancies or self-interstitials does not deplete the number of negative formation energy sites. Instead, it further lowers defect formation energies. Furthermore, these findings lead us to conclude that a-Si is not a structure at or near a local enthalpy minimum nor can it be brought to a local enthalpy minimum through the introduction of constitutional defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precipitation of dopants on acceptor-doped LaMnO3±δ revealed by defect chemistry from first principles

Perovskite oxides degrade at elevated temperatures while precipitating dopant-rich particles on the surface. A knowledge-based improvement of surface stability requires a fundamental and quantitative understanding of the dopant precipitation mechanism on these materials. We propose that dopant precipitation is a consequence of the variation of dopant solubility between calcination and operating conditions in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and electrolyzer cells (SOECs). To study dopant precipitation, we use 20% (D = Ca, Sr, Ba)-doped LaMnO3+δ (LDM20) as a model system. We employ a defect model taking input from density functional theory calculations. The defect model considers the equilibration of LDM20 with a reservoir consisting of dopant oxide (DO), peroxide (DO2), and O2 in the gas phase. The equilibrated non-stoichiometry of the A-site and B-site as a function of temperature, T, and oxygen partial pressure, p(O2), reveals three regimes for LDM20: A-site deficient (oxidizing conditions), A-site rich (atmospheric conditions), and near-stoichiometric (reducing conditions). Assuming an initial A/B non-stoichiometry, we compute the dopant precipitation boundaries in a p–T phase diagram. Our model predicts precipitation both under reducing (DO) and under highly oxidizing conditions (DO2). We found precipitation under anodic, SOEC conditions to be promoted by large dopant size, while under cathodic, SOFC conditions precipitation is promoted by initial A-site excess. The main driving forces for precipitation are oxygen uptake by the condensed phase under oxidizing conditions and oxygen release assisted by B-site vacancies under reducing conditions. Possible strategies for mitigating dopant precipitation under in electrolytic and fuel cell conditions are discussed.

Hess, Franziska (ORCID:000000024460643X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

geothermal_osr (Energy Predictor for Geothermal Open Source Reservoir) [SWR-22-23]

This is a repository with the tools developed for predicting energy produced at Open-Source Reservoir (OSR). It includes both simulation data for OSR, as well as Jupyter notebooks for training and evaluating prediction models. OSR was constructed based on the data from Brady Hot Springs reservoir (Nevada, USA) but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics and does not disclose any sensitive data.

Duplyakin, Dmitry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Foundational Dataset for Developing Large-Sample Stream Temperature Models in the Conterminous United States

This dataset provides inputs, evaluation results, and trained weights from a large-sample Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model designed to predict daily stream temperatures across unregulated river reaches in the conterminous United States (CONUS). It includes dynamic meteorological and hydrologic forcings, static physiographic attributes, and model outputs from cross-validation experiments spanning 300 basins. It supports reproducible modeling, direct application for new basins, and provides data suitable for integration with reservoir and river simulations under current and future climates. It contains two .zip files described below · RQ-AI_runs.zip: Model outputs from 10-fold cross-validation experiments, including observed and predicted daily stream temperatures, along with test performance metrics for water years 2017–2019. Two versions are included: 1. Model trained and validated using subbasin-area weighted dynamic features. 2. Model trained and validated using whole-basin area weighted dynamic features. · RQ-AI_inputs.zip: Collection of all formatted dynamic and static predictor datasets (meteorological, hydrologic, and physiographic features) used in model training and analysis. Detailed instructions and data structure is held at the following GitLab repository: https://code.ornl.gov/tempwise/training.

Gomez-Velez, Jesus [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Normal or abnormal? Machine learning for the leakage detection in carbon sequestration projects using pressure field data

The international commitments for atmospheric carbon reduction will require a rapid increase in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. The key to any successful CCS project lies in the long term storage and prevention of leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In addition to being a greenhouse gas, CO 2 leaks reaching the surface can accumulate in low-lying areas resulting in a serious health risk. Among several alternatives, some of the more promising CCS storage formations are depleted oil and gas reservoirs, where the reservoirs had good geological seals prior to hydrocarbon extraction. With more CCS wells coming online, it is imperative to implement permanent, automated monitoring tools. We apply machine learning models to automate the leakage detection process in carbon storage reservoirs using rates of (CO 2 ) injection and pressure data measured by simple harmonic pulse testing (HPT). To validate the feasibility of this machine learning based workflow, we use data from HPT experiments carried out in the Cranfield oil field, Mississippi, USA. The data consist of a series of pulse tests conducted with baseline parameters and with an artificially introduced leak. Here, in this study, we pose the leakage detection task as an anomaly detection problem where deviation from the predicted behavior indicates leaks in the reservoir. Results show that different machine learning architectures such as multi-layer feed forward network, Long Short-Term Memory, and convolutional neural network are able to identify leakages and can provide early warning. These warnings can then be used to take remedial measures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

FECM/NETL Offshore CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model

The FECM/NETL Offshore CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM_Offshore) estimates costs for a CO2 storage project in an offshore saline formation or reservoir. It is applicable for storage projects located on the Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of America. The purpose is to model the costs associated with a project, using simplified geo-engineering equations to calculate reservoir values needed to determine costs (such as CO2 plume area and number of injection wells). To use the model, change any of the inputs, which are always in orange cells, to the values you desire. Although there are numerous values that can be changed, the values expected to be of most interest have input cells on the 'Key_Inputs' sheet. Last update: 5/2/2025; Version 1.1 corrects bug in reservoir thickness calculations.

Carbon storage↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Formation Damage: An Integrated Reservoir Characterization Study of the Naturally Fractured Carbonate Middle Duperow Formation at the Kevin Dome, Montana

In this study, we integrate geologic and engineering data of a naturally fractured carbonate reservoir at the Kevin Dome, Montana. Well test data are correlated with core description, geochemical and lithology study to determine the flow behavior and communication within the injection test interval and to the surrounding area. Based on a dual-continuum geologic model, numerical brine injection simulations are carried out to validate the interpretation results from our well test analytical models and forecast the probability of CO 2 injection success using current reservoir properties. As a result, our well test analytical models as well as lithology/core description suggest that fluid flow may be mainly restricted to the injection interval and the assumption of radial (horizontal) flow may be appropriate. The well test models also indicate that there is potentially formation damage with a positive skin factor although prior to brine injection well tests, well stimulation through acid treatment was performed. Our numerical simulation results appear to confirm this formation damage by showing additional pressure buildup in the injection data during later test periods. To explain this, acid may have dissolved dolomite then dolomite or calcite may have been formed again further into the matrix/fracture system. Another possible explanation is mechanical clogging of the fractures due to acid dissolving dolomite and dislodging fine grains. Our work also predicts that if no additional well stimulation is performed, the project will have a lower probability of successfully injecting 1 million tons of CO 2 into the Middle Duperow formation over 4 years.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗