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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Continuous Seismic Data at an Industry Facility Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Seismic data recorded at industrial sites contain valuable information on anthropogenic activities. With advances in machine learning and computing power, new opportunities have emerged to explore the seismic wavefield in these complex environments. We applied two unsupervised machine learning algorithms to analyze continuous seismic data collected from an industrial facility in Texas, United States. The Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction algorithm was used to reduce the dimensionality of the data and generate 2D embeddings. Then, the Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise method was employed to automatically group these embeddings into distinct signal clusters. Our analysis of over 1400 hr (around 59 days) of continuous seismic data revealed five and seven signal clusters at two separate stations. At both stations, we identified clusters associated with background noise and vehicle traffic, with the latter’s temporal patterns aligning closely with the facility’s work schedule. Furthermore, the algorithms detected signal clusters from unknown sources and underline the ability of unsupervised machine learning for uncovering previously unrecognized patterns. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of unsupervised approaches in examining continuous seismic data without requiring prior knowledge or pre-existing labels.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Recovery of Acoustic Source Height During the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Re-Entry

Controlled hypersonic reentries with well‐constrained trajectories are exceedingly rare, yet they provide valuable reference cases for validating geophysical source characterization methods applicable to bolides and space debris. The 24 September 2023 re‐entry of the OSIRIS‐REx Sample Return Capsule, the first interplanetary capsule to return over the contiguous United States in nearly two decades, presented such an opportunity. Here, we present seismic observations of this event recorded at 16 stations across three sites at ground distances of 7–20 km from the trajectory. Using eigenray tracing through ground‐to‐space atmospheric specifications, we invert picked acoustic‐to‐seismic travel times for effective shock‐generated acoustic source altitudes along the known trajectory. The method recovers source heights of 57.9–59.5 km with travel‐time residuals <1 s across all stations. The seismic‐derived source heights, when compared at their along‐track positions, fall within the range of previously published infrasound‐derived heights for the corresponding trajectory segment, with intermethod differences comparable with the timing‐based uncertainty. These results suggest that air‐to‐ground coupling does not introduce a resolvable systematic timing bias in the picked near‐field seismic arrivals, supporting seismic observations as a complementary tool for altitude estimation of bolides, re‐entry vehicles, and other hypersonic atmospheric sources.

Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2019

Long-Period, Long-Duration Seismic Events and Their Probable Role in Reservoir Stimulation and Stage Productivity

Hydraulic fracturing is a well-established technique to extract gas or liquid hydrocarbons from low-permeability formations like shale and tight gas reservoirs. Diffusion of hydrofracturing fluid outward from the stimulated fractures into the target formation produces slip across preexisting fractures and other discontinuities in the rock. Microseismic events recorded by downhole seismic monitoring arrays are a manifestation of associated deformation. Recent investigations suggest that the total cumulative seismic moment of microearthquakes during hydraulic fracturing is only a small portion of the total seismic energy release expected for the fluid volume injected into the formation. These observations suggest that other sources of energy release (such as inelastic deformation), contemporaneous with microseismicity, should be considered as relevant to the hydraulic fracturing process. Recent observations on long period, long duration (LPLD) seismic events suggest that slow slip emission along weaknesses that are misaligned with respect to the present-day stress field are likely an important mechanism of deformation and should be better understood and quantified in reservoir stimulations. In Morgantown, West Virginia, we carried out seismic monitoring of hydraulic fracturing activity using an array of five broadband, three-component surface seismometers. Using this network, we identified 89 high-amplitude, impulsive events and 436 long period, long duration (LPLD) events, with highly emergent waveform characteristics. In these interpreted LPLD events, we observed a significant concentration of energy in the 0.8-3 Hz frequency range. During hydraulic fracturing, LPLD events were found to occur most frequently when the pumping pressure and rate were at or near maximum values. As the main purpose of hydraulic fracturing is to stimulate oil and gas production from the less permeable reservoir, we compared the relative production contribution per stage to the frequency of occurrence of suspected LPLD events. We found positive correlation between the frequency of LPLD events and stage-by-stage gas production, highlighting the potential contribution of slow deformation processes and its effectiveness in the reservoir stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al., 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Seismic Performance of Dry Casks Storage for Long- Term Exposure

The main goal of this study is to evaluate the long-term seismic performance of freestanding and anchored Dry Storage Casks (DSCs) using experimental tests on a shaking table, as well as comprehensive numerical evaluations that include the cask-pad-soil system. The study focuses on the dynamic performance of vertical DSCs, which can be designed as free-standing structures resting on a reinforced concrete foundation pad, or casks anchored to a foundation pad. The spent nuclear fuel (SNF) at nuclear power plants (NPPs) is initially stored in fuel-storage pools to control the fuel temperature. After several years, the fuel assemblies are transferred to DSCs at sites contiguous to the plant, known as Interim Spent Fuel Storage Installations (ISFSIs). The regulations for these storage systems (10 CFR 72) ensure adequate passive heat removal and radiation shielding during normal operations, off-normal events, and accident scenarios. The integrity of the DSCs is important, even if the overpack does not breach, because eventually the spent fuel-rods need to be shipped either to a reprocessing plant or a repository. DSCs have been considered as a temporary storage solution, and usually are licensed for 20 years, although they can be relicensed for operating periods of up to 60 years. In recent years, DSCs have been reevaluated as a potential mid-term solution, in which the operating period may be extended for up to 300 years. At the same time, recent seismic events have underlined the significant risks DSCs are exposed. The consideration of DCSs for storing spent fuel for hundreds of years has created new challenges. In the case of seismic hazard, longer-term operating periods not only lead to larger horizontal accelerations, but also increase the relative effect of vertical accelerations that usually are disregarded for smaller seismic events. These larger seismic demands could lead to casks sliding and tipping over, impacting the concrete pad or adjacent casks. The casks may also slide and collide with other casks or structural components. Also, the different DSC components may impact each other during these events. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of DSCs subjected to these extreme demands, including the effect of vertical accelerations, and soilstructure interaction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

A microseismic workflow for managing induced seismicity risk as CO 2 storage projects

It is well established that fluid injection has the potential to induce earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—by altering state-of-stress conditions in the subsurface. While induced seismicity has not been a major operational issue for carbon storage projects to date, a seismicity hazard exists and must be carefully addressed. Two essential components of effective seismic risk management are (1) sensitive microseismic monitoring and (2) robust data interpretation tools. This report describes a novel workflow, based on advanced processing algorithms applied to microseismic data, to help improve management of seismic risk. This workflow has three main goals: (1) to improve the resolution and reliability of passive seismic monitoring, (2) to extract additional, valuable information from continuous waveform data that is often ignored in standard processing, and (3) to minimize the turn-around time between data collection, interpretation, and decision-making. These three objectives can allow for a better-informed and rapid response to changing subsurface conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

2012 Geothermal Technologies Peer Review Summary: Mapping Diffuse Seismicity

The purpose of this project as it relates to GTP goals is to create a methodology that can be successfully implemented at an EGS site to aid in the successful creation of an EGS reservoir. The MFP technique would allow developers to obtain better seismic information for input when characterizing the hazard and risk associated with induced seismic events and when creating and monitoring the EGS reservoir. The purpose of this project as it relates to the geothermal industry / market is to create a method by which certain recommendations within the 2012 Protocol for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems can be more easily implemented. The particular recommendation referred to is that seismic instrumentation should be able to detect events at least as small as M1.0 and preferably down to M0.0. This technique has been shown to decrease the magnitude completeness threshold of existing seismic networks, and as such should positively impact implementation of the above recommendation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Field Demonstration of The Krauklis Seismic Wave In A Novel Mva Method For Geologic CO 2 Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted a feasibility study of a new, low-impact geophysics monitoring method designed to incrementally track the saturation front of CO 2 injected into a reservoir. The method leverages a new way of transmitting energy from the surface to the reservoir and employs a new subsurface signal called the Krauklis wave (K-wave) and other guided waves for seismic monitoring. The EERC partnered with Seismos, Inc., the company that holds the exclusive technology license for this method, to advance development of K-wave technology, and Denbury Onshore, LLC, to field-test the system. The system was field-tested at Denbury’s Bell Creek oil field, currently undergoing CO 2 -based enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in southeastern Montana. The K-wave system uses a wellhead-mounted source to propagate energy down the wellbore in the form of a tube wave and through the well perforations into the reservoir. Part of the energy transmitted through the perforations into the reservoir converts to slow moving K-waves and/or other guided waves that are expected to propagate through the formation to neighboring wells. The propagated signal would induce tube waves in the neighboring wells that return to the surface to be recorded with a wellhead-mounted receiver. The propagation time of the signal is directly affected by the presence of CO 2 between the wells, so the difference in transit time of the returning signal between pre- and postinjection data sets could be used to help define the lateral extent of a CO 2 saturation front. Objectives of the study were to demonstrate, validate, and evaluate the K-wave method’s ability to monitor the morphology of injected CO 2 and estimate saturation distribution. Results from the demonstration were to be compared to conventional 4-D surface seismic methods, dynamic reservoir simulations, and CO 2 breakthrough data to validate the technology and provide useful information that may result in improvements. Prior to mobilizing for the full-scale K-wave baseline survey, a field test was conducted to better understand wellhead hardware configurations and test the response from the Bell Creek reservoir using three wells. Useful operational information resulted but signal from the first-generation gas release/gas injection source was not recorded in neighboring wells. After the initial field test, numerical modeling of the K-wave method was initiated using parameters specific to the Bell Creek Field. Modeling results indicated that the fundamental concepts behind the K-wave method exhibited problems and revealed a significantly greater attenuation of the signal at the wellbore perforations than expected, totaling on the order of 10-8 from source well to receiver well over a 400-m well spacing. Modeling also showed that greater source frequency bandwidth was needed to produce guided waves within a 30-foot-thick reservoir layer such as that at Bell Creek and that reservoir layer seismic velocity would need to be slower than the velocities of the bounding layers in order to act as a wave guide opposite to what exists at Bell Creek. Modeling results prompted a second field test with a stronger, second-generation displacement source developed in the interim. Concurrent with the second field test, a 3-D seismic survey was acquired to serve as a baseline for project validation and to serve as a monitor data set for the portion of the project area where CO 2 injection had already commenced. The new source was tested using a four-well geometry and failed to produce a detectable signal, which appeared to confirm modeling results and indicated that the Bell Creek Field is not an ideal site for the K-wave test. It was concluded that a source with sufficient strength and bandwidth could not be built to overcome the factors discovered by the modeling within a reasonable amount of time. Several other sites undergoing CO 2 -based EOR were also evaluated; however, none of these sites was amenable because of geology, limitations of source and receiver hardware, or the advanced state of the CO 2 flood. In addition, two other configurations of the source and receiver layout were considered; however, these design modifications either changed the scope of the project or did not meet the goals of the Carbon Storage Program. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Project Manager and Technology Manager, a no-go decision was invoked to forego additional expenditures as the technology would not meet current project objectives. Project activities to date have moved the technology forward by developing modeling equations that can be applied elsewhere, advanced the state of wellhead sensors and sources, and spurred improvements to field operations. The 3-D seismic survey in the project area and the dynamic reservoir simulations done as part of this study have provided value for ongoing and future synergistic activities at Bell Creek related to DOE carbon storage goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Washington State Highway Seismic Screening Tool (HSST)

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) undertook the Washington State Transportation Systems RRAP project in 2017 to assess the seismic vulnerabilities of that state’s transportation system to a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. The specific goal of that project was to assess the vulnerability of, and prioritize, transportation infrastructure for moving goods and supplies from Incident Support Bases to Federal Staging Areas within Washington State following a CSZ earthquake. As part of this analysis, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), with input and support from the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) maintenance and pavements offices and state geotechnical engineer, developed the Highway Seismic Screening Tool (HSST) to inform a system-level analysis of highway recovery and reopening times. This report provides a full discussion of the HSST’s development, implementation, and results for the CSZ scenario earthquake. The primary outcome of the HSST is to determine the approximate reopening times of highway segments or bridges damaged by a CSZ magnitude 9.0 seismic event. This is done by calculating the permanent ground deformation (PGD) caused by soil liquefaction along state highways, which can cause significant damage or displacement of highway pavement structures. The term “reopening time” is different from “restoration time” and is intended to represent the approximate amount of time that would be needed to return highways to a minimum state of repair sufficient to support the limited movement of emergency and response vehicles. Additionally, the HSST is referred to as a “screening tool,” as it uses network- or system-level asset management information that WSDOT provided to assess seismic-related hazards and vulnerabilities of highways; it does not conduct an asset-level engineering analysis of seismic-related vulnerabilities. Accordingly, the results of the HSST analysis should only be used for system- or corridor-level planning and investment, and not for engineering or management decisions at the asset level. The HSST is also applied to assess the exposure of statewide rail systems to soil liquefaction and PGD hazards. However, little information is available about the sensitivity or vulnerability of railways and rail yards to such hazards, and therefore researchers were unable to determine approximate reopening times for the state’s rail system following a CSZ earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applying Compression-Based Metrics to Seismic Data in Support of Global Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

The analysis of seismic data for evidence of possible nuclear explosion testing is a critical global security mission that relies heavily on human expertise to identify and mark seismic signals embedded in background noise. To assist analysts in making these determinations, we adapted two compression distance metrics for use with seismic data. First, we demonstrated that the Normalized Compression Distance (NCD) metric can be adapted for use with waveform data and can identify the arrival times of seismic signals. Then we tested an approximation for the NCD called Sliding Information Distance (SLID), which can be computed much faster than NCD. We assessed the accuracy of the SLID output by comparing it to both the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the judgments of expert seismic analysts. Our results indicate that SLID effectively identifies arrival times and provides analysts with useful information that can aid their analysis process.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrated Geomechanics and Geophysics in Induced Seismicity: Mechanisms and Monitoring

Quantifying in-situ subsurface stresses and predicting fracture development are critical to reducing risks of induced seismicity and improving modern energy activities in the subsurface. In this work, we developed a novel integration of controlled mechanical failure experiments coupled with microCT imaging, acoustic sensing, modeling of fracture initiation and propagation, and machine learning for event detections and waveform characterization. Through additive manufacturing (3D printing), we were able to produce bassanite-gypsum rock samples with repeatable physical, geochemical and structural properties. With these "geoarchitected" rock, we provided the role of mineral texture orientation on fracture surface roughness. The impact of poroelastic coupling on induced seismicity has been systematically investigated to improve mechanistic understanding of post shut-in surge of induced seismicity. This research will set the groundwork for characterizing seismic waveforms by using multiphysics and machine learning approaches and improve the detection of low-magnitude seismic events leading to the discovery of hidden fault/fracture systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ground Motion Inputs for the Seismic Shake Table Test

Currently, spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is stored in on-site independent spent-fuel storage installations (ISFSIs) at seventythree (73) nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the US. Because a site for geologic repository for permanent disposal of SNF has not been constructed, the SNF will remain in dry storage significantly longer than planned. During this time, the ISFSIs, and potentially consolidated storage facilities, will experience earthquakes of different magnitudes. The dry storage systems are designed and licensed to withstand large seismic loads. When dry storage systems experience seismic loads, there are little data on the response of SNF assemblies contained within them. The Spent Fuel Waste Disposition (SFWD) program is planning to conduct a full-scale seismic shake table test to close the gap related to the seismic loads on the fuel assemblies in dry storage systems. This test will allow for quantifying the strains and accelerations on surrogate fuel assembly hardware and cladding during earthquakes of different magnitudes and frequency content. The main component of the test unit will be the full-scale NUHOMS 32 PTH2 dry storage canister. The canister will be loaded with three surrogate fuel assemblies and twenty-nine dummy assemblies. Two dry storage configurations will be tested – horizontal and vertical above-ground concrete overpacks. These configurations cover 91% of the current dry storage configurations. The major input into the shake table test are the seismic excitations or the earthquake ground motions – acceleration time histories in two horizontal and one vertical direction that will be applied to the shake table surface during the tests. The shake table surface represents the top of the concrete pad on which a dry storage system is placed. The goal of the ground motion task is to develop the ground motions that would be representative of the range of seismotectonic and other conditions that any site in the Western US (WUS) or Central Eastern US (CEUS) might entail. This task is challenging because of the large number of the ISFSI sites, variety of seismotectonic and site conditions, and effects that soil amplification, soil-structure interaction, and pad flexibility may have on the ground motions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Programmatic Advantages of Linear Equivalent Seismic Models

Underground explosions nonlinearly deform the surrounding earth material and can interact with the free surface to produce spall. However, at typical seismological observation distances the seismic wavefield can be accurately modeled using linear approximations. Although nonlinear algorithms can accurately simulate very near field ground motions, they are computationally expensive and potentially unnecessary for far field wave simulations. Conversely, linearized seismic wave propagation codes are orders of magnitude faster computationally and can accurately simulate the wavefield out to typical observational distances. Thus, devising a means of approximating a nonlinear source in terms of a linear equivalent source would be advantageous both for scenario modeling and for interpretation of seismic source models that are based on linear, far-field approximations. This allows fast linear seismic modeling that still incorporates many features of the nonlinear source mechanics built into the simulation results so that one can have many of the advantages of both types of simulations without the computational cost of the nonlinear computation. In this report we first show the computational advantage of using linear equivalent models, and then discuss how the near-source (within the nonlinear wavefield regime) environment affects linear source equivalents and how well we can fit seismic wavefields derived from nonlinear sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SECARB Permits for Seismic and Other Site Preparation Plan

The Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership’s (SECARB’s) Anthropogenic Test is a demonstration of the deployment of CO 2 capture, transport, geologic storage and monitoring technologies. This project is one of the first and the largest fully integrated commercial prototype coal-fired carbon capture and storage projects in the USA. Drilled in January 2011, a deep characterization well provided geologic data confirming that the test site represented an attractive location for safe, long-term storage of CO 2 . Two Class V Experimental Injection Well underground injection control (UIC) permits were issued in November 2011 and subsequently the project’s injection wells were installed. A robust monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) plan has been developed to monitor and track the CO 2 plume and the associated pressure field. The CO 2 MVA effort for the Anthropogenic Test CO 2 (Test) injection demonstration includes two wellbore seismic methods, specifically time-lapse Croswell seismic and vertical seismic profiles (VSP). Due to the unique challenges presented by this Test (injection depth of 9,500+ ft. into thin, stacked reservoir sands and limited injection volumes) surface seismic was eliminated as a Monitoring, Verification, and Accounting (MVA) tool. However, the newly drilled project wells provided ample casing diameters (prior to running tubing) to accommodate wellbore seismic receivers (wireline and tubing deployed) and a Croswell source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Whether Subsurface Fluid Production Can Minimize Triggered Seismicity in Geothermal Fields

Fluid injection and production related to energy recovery and other industrial operations alter the pressure and stress state of subsurface reservoirs which can lead to induced seismicity. Here, the primary goal is to investigate the hypothesis that the modulation of stress state in subsurface reservoirs through fluid injection/production operations can reduce the likelihood of inducing seismicity. Validation of this mitigation strategy will provide an active operational method to control induced seismicity in subsurface reservoir exploitations such as geothermal energy recovery and carbon storage. In this project, we analyze the relationship between extensive fluid production and the paucity of aftershock activity at the Coso Geothermal plant (CGP) following the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, where high rates of aftershock triggering were expected. We developed a high-fidelity multiphase coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model to simulate fluid injection/production activities at the CGP between 1986 and 2020. THM results of surface subsidence due to high rates of fluid production agree well with field observations from global positioning system (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Subsequently, the variations of pore pressure, temperature and stress state were used to drive numerical earthquake simulations of the aftershock response to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes. The earthquake simulations show that seismic quiescence may occur following the Ridgecrest event, depending on the initial stress state at the time of the mainshock and at the initiation of geothermal energy production. Seismic quiescence occurs in 20% of the cases we explored, where rates are decreased by 50% of the background rate in the two years following the mainshock. In circumstances where aftershock rates increase near the CGP following Ridgecrest, the average rate change is a factor of two larger than background rates from simulations with no operations. These findings indicate that unlike many other operations that bring faults closer to failure, operations at the CGP are acting to stabilize faults such that triggering in the current stress state is minimal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seismic Loading for Short-Term Duration Exposures and Temporary Structures

The purpose of this document is to determine the appropriate seismic demand forces associated with a short-term and temporary seismic exposure for protecting structures, systems, and components (SSCs) from hazards associated with Seismic Design Category 1 (SDC-1), SDC-2, and SDC-3 seismic events based on data provided in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Update for LLNL prepared by Fugro Consultants, Inc. in accordance with DOE-STD-1020.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference for the seismic moment tensor using regional waveforms and a data-derived distribution of velocity models

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used to construct the transfer function employed in the forward model that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedures often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. We attempt to incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a distribution of velocity models calculated in a prior effort based on different and complementary data sets. The posterior distribution of velocity models is then used to construct Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional waveform data. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and can be interpreted in terms of most-probable source-type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal Modulation of Crustal Seismicity in Northeastern Japan Driven by Snow Load

Numerous studies have reported that surface hydrological loading can seasonally modulate seismicity rates at crustal depths. For example, substantial winter snow accumulation occurs across the Japanese Islands, and these snowy regions appear to have seasonally modulated the occurrence of previous large inland earthquakes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of seasonal stress changes on crustal seismicity to deepen our understanding of earthquake generation. Here we constrain seasonal changes in the surface load across northeastern Japan using Global Navigation Satellite System surface displacements and evaluate the potential relationship between temporal trends in inland seismicity and estimated seasonal stress changes. The spatial distribution of the seasonal surface load is consistent with snow depth along the Sea of Japan. The inland seismicity beneath northeastern Japan is modestly modulated by the seasonal stress changes that are induced by the annual snow load. However, this seasonal response is weaker than that in other regions. This weak modulation may be due to the small surface-load-induced stress perturbation relative to the long-term-averaged stressing rate and/or the limited presence of crustal fluids to trigger seismicity in Japan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗