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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting drug-metagenome interactions: Variation in the microbial β-glucuronidase level in the human gut metagenomes

Characterizing the gut microbiota in terms of their capacity to interfere with drug metabolism is necessary to achieve drug efficacy and safety. Although examples of drug-microbiome interactions are well-documented, little has been reported about a computational pipeline for systematically identifying and characterizing bacterial enzymes that process particular classes of drugs. The goal of our study is to develop a computational approach that compiles drugs whose metabolism may be influenced by a particular class of microbial enzymes and that quantifies the variability in the collective level of those enzymes among individuals. The present paper describes this approach, with microbial β-glucuronidases as an example, which break down drug-glucuronide conjugates and reactivate the drugs or their metabolites. We identified 100 medications that may be metabolized by β-glucuronidases from the gut microbiome. These medications included morphine, estrogen, ibuprofen, midazolam, and their structural analogues. The analysis of metagenomic data available through the Sequence Read Archive (SRA) showed that the level of β-glucuronidase in the gut metagenomes was higher in males than in females, which provides a potential explanation for the sex-based differences in efficacy and toxicity for several drugs, reported in previous studies. Our analysis also showed that infant gut metagenomes at birth and 12 months of age have higher levels of β-glucuronidase than the metagenomes of their mothers and the implication of this observed variability was discussed in the context of breastfeeding as well as infant hyperbilirubinemia. Overall, despite important limitations discussed in this paper, our analysis provided useful insights on the role of the human gut metagenome in the variability in drug response among individuals. Importantly, this approach exploits drug and metagenome data available in public databases as well as open-source cheminformatics and bioinformatics tools to predict drug-metagenome interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output

Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centered climate anomalies. Local L–A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L–A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth and development and the entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team in the Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) project is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional Earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L–A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land–atmosphere interactions span timescales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability in behavioral regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here, we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyze, and better understand L–A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behavior. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L–A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

(U) Archive of Historic Pu-239 Jezebel Documents

The 239 Pu Jezebel experiment of 1954–1955 was reevaluated for the 2013 edition of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. Experimental logbooks, original drawings, mass accountability statements, internal reports, and published reports were used to model four actual Jezebel assemblies with high fidelity in three dimensions. Because plutonium-alloy part masses from 1954–1955 (the time of the original experiments) were not found, assumptions were made. The most important assumption was that the assembly masses given in Los Alamos report LA-4208 (Ref. 3) in 1969 were correct. With this basic assumption, and using information found in the logbooks and mass accountability statements from 1958–1960, a distribution of the LA-4208 assembly mass among the Pu-alloy parts was postulated. Subsequently, the SF Material Transfer Receipt (November 24, 1954) was found. It lists the masses of the major parts and several minor parts as of late-November 1954. In addition, as-built drawings for the initial delivery of the major parts (October 1954, before they were remachined to reduce their reactivity) were found. These important documents, which were discovered by accident, motivated what we hope will be the final detailed Jezebel reevaluation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cryo-EM model validation recommendations based on outcomes of the 2019 EMDataResource challenge

This paper describes outcomes of the 2019 Cryo-EM Model Challenge. The goals were to (1) assess the quality of models that can be produced from cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) maps using current modeling software, (2) evaluate reproducibility of modeling results from different software developers and users and (3) compare performance of current metrics used for model evaluation, particularly Fit-to-Map metrics, with focus on near-atomic resolution. Our findings demonstrate the relatively high accuracy and reproducibility of cryo-EM models derived by 13 participating teams from four benchmark maps, including three forming a resolution series (1.8 to 3.1 Å). The results permit specific recommendations to be made about validating near-atomic cryo-EM structures both in the context of individual experiments and structure data archives such as the Protein Data Bank. We recommend the adoption of multiple scoring parameters to provide full and objective annotation and assessment of the model, reflective of the observed cryo-EM map density.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of nitrogen fertilization and bioenergy crop type on topsoil organic carbon and total Nitrogen contents in middle Tennessee USA

Nitrogen (N) fertilization affects bioenergy crop growth and productivity and consequently carbon (C) and N contents in soil, it however remains unclear whether N fertilization and crop type individually or interactively influence soil organic carbon (SOC) and total N (TN). In a three-year long fertilization experiment in switchgrass (SG: Panicum virgatum L.) and gamagrass (GG: Tripsacum dactyloides L.) croplands in Middle Tennessee USA, soil samples (0–15cm) were collected in plots with no N input (NN), low N input (LN: 84 kg N ha -1 yr -1 in urea) and high N input (HN: 168 kg N ha -1 yr -1 in urea). Besides SOC and TN, the aboveground plant biomass was also quantified. In addition to a summary of published root morphology data based on a separated mesocosm experiment, the root leachable dissolved organic matter (DOM) of both crops was also measured using archived samples. Results showed no significant interaction of N fertilization and crop type on SOC, TN or plant aboveground biomass (ABG). Relative to NN, HN (not LN) significantly increased SOC and TN in both crops. Though SG showed a 15–68% significantly higher ABG than GG, GG showed a 9.3–12% significantly higher SOC and TN than SG. The positive linear relationships of SOC or TN with ABG were identified for SG. However, GG showed structurally more complex and less readily decomposed root DOM, a larger root volume, total root length and surface area than SG. Collectively, these suggested that intensive N fertilization could increase C and N stocks in bioenergy cropland soils but these effects may be more likely mediated by the aboveground biomass in SG and root chemistry and morphology in GG. Future studies are expected to examine the root characteristics in different bioenergy croplands under the field fertilization experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Lake Ice Biases in Reanalysis Data on Downscaled Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region

This data package contains observation-based and model-simulated datasets (all provided in NetCDF format) for evaluating how wintertime lake-ice representation affects regional weather and climate over the Laurentian Great Lakes (freshwater lake ecosystem) during the high–ice-cover winter of 2009. The observational component includes: (1) Stage IV gridded precipitation at 4 km, hourly resolution for January–February 2009 over the Great Lakes region (radar–gauge multisensor precipitation analyses); (2) Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA) satellite-derived lake-ice coverage at 1.3 km, daily resolution for the 2009 winter months, providing ice coverage over Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and (3) in situ measurements at the Standard Rock site on Lake Superior from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN) at hourly resolution, including near-surface atmospheric variables and sensible and latent heat fluxes (air–lake exchange) at a fixed point location. The modeling component provides corresponding fields from two simulations, both archived at 4 km, hourly resolution: a standalone Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF) run driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), and a two-way coupled model using WRF and the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (WRF-FVCOM, a 3-D hydrodynamic lake model). These outputs include variables relevant to air–lake interaction and lake-effect processes (e.g., near-surface temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and surface turbulent fluxes), enabling direct comparison with the observational datasets. Users can analyze and visualize these NetCDF files with common tools such as Python (e.g., xarray, netCDF4, numpy, pandas), NCO/CDO, Panoply, or ncview; NetCDF variables can also be converted to other formats (e.g., CSV, GeoTIFF) using these utilities.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Viroid-like “obelisk” agents are widespread in the ocean and exceed the abundance of RNA viruses in the prokaryotic fraction

Abstract “Obelisks” are recently discovered ribonucleic acid (RNA) viroid-like elements present in diverse environments with no phylogenetic similarity to any known biological agent. obelisks were first identified in the human gut and in a commensal bacterium acting as a replicative host. They have a circular ∼1 kb RNA genome, rod-like secondary structures, and the encoding of a protein superfamily called “Oblins”. We performed a large-scale search of obelisks in the ocean using the Pebblescout program and the transcriptomic Sequence Archive Read databases, revealing the biogeography and abundance of these viroid-like RNA elements. We detected 55 obelisk genomes resulting in 35 marine clusters at the species level. These obelisks were detected in the prokaryotic fraction and to a lesser extent in the eukaryotic fraction, and distributed across all the oceans from surface to mesopelagic including the Arctic, and even in the coldest seawater of Earth beneath the Antarctic Ross Ice Shelf. The obelisk hallmark protein Oblin-1 confirmed by 3D models was found in various marine samples. Some of the detected marine obelisks harbor hammerhead self-cleaving ribozymes in both polarities. In the prokaryotic, but not the eukaryotic, fraction of the Tara Ocean dataset, relative abundance of obelisks calculated by transcriptomic fragment recruitment indicated that they are abundant in marine samples, reaching or even exceeding the relative abundance of the previously discovered uncultured RNA viruses. In conclusion, obelisks are abundant and widespread viroid-like elements that should be included in ocean biogeochemical models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and Code for: Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits

This repository contains the simulation outputs and processing scripts associated with the study of winter wheat traits across the United States, utilizing the Ecosys agroecosystem model. The dataset includes model results for both rainfed and irrigated winter wheat systems, supporting the findings presented in the manuscript titled "Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits." Data includes the original Ecosys simulation outputs (archived in .db format within the compressed .zip files) and extracted analysis data (stored in .pkl files for efficient processing). Python code for data processing and figure generation is provided in a Jupyter notebook. External Observational Datasets should refer to the following official repositories for the input and validation data used in this study. The eddy covariance data from the AmeriFlux network (https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/). Climate-forcing data of NLDAS-2 from NASA LDAS (https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/nldas-2-forcing-data). Soil data from the Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO), available at (https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/gridded-soil-survey-geographic-gssurgo-database). Crop yields, planting and harvest dates from the USDA public databases (https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/; https://webapp.rma.usda.gov/apps/actuarialinformationbrowser/CropCriteria.aspx). Satellite-derived SLOPE GPP data from ORNL DAAC (https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=1786). Land use and crop progress information from the USDA Crop Data Layer and Crop Progress and Condition Gridded Layers (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Research_and_Science/). The Ecosys model code is available online at https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS.

Wheat↗
DOE OSTI2021

RCSB Protein Data Bank: improved annotation, search and visualization of membrane protein structures archived in the PDB

Abstract Motivation Membrane proteins are encoded by approximately one fifth of human genes but account for more than half of all US FDA approved drug targets. Thanks to new technological advances, the number of membrane proteins archived in the PDB is growing rapidly. However, automatic identification of membrane proteins or inference of membrane location is not a trivial task. Results We present recent improvements to the RCSB Protein Data Bank web portal (RCSB PDB, rcsb.org) that provide a wealth of new membrane protein annotations integrated from four external resources: OPM, PDBTM, MemProtMD and mpstruc. We have substantially enhanced the presentation of data on membrane proteins. The number of membrane proteins with annotations available on rcsb.org was increased by ∼80%. Users can search for these annotations, explore corresponding tree hierarchies, display membrane segments at the 1D amino acid sequence level, and visualize the predicted location of the membrane layer in 3D. Availability and implementation Annotations, search, tree data and visualization are available at our rcsb.org web portal. Membrane visualization is supported by the open-source Mol* viewer (molstar.org and github.com/molstar/molstar). Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long- and short-term temporal variability in cloud condensation nuclei spectra over a wide supersaturation range in the Southern Great Plains site

Abstract. When aerosol particles seed the formation of liquid water droplets in the atmosphere, they are called cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Different aerosols will act as CCN under different degrees of water supersaturation (relative humidity above 100 %), depending on their size and composition. In this work, we build and analyze a best-estimate CCN spectrum product, tabulated at ∼ 45 min resolution, generated using high quality data from seven independent instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The data product spans a large supersaturation range, from 0.0001 % to ∼ 30 %, and time period of 5 years, from 2009–2013, and is available on the ARM data archive. We leverage this added statistical power to examine relationships that are unclear in smaller datasets. Our analysis is performed in three main areas. First, probability distributions of many aerosol and CCN metrics are found to exhibit skewed log-normal distribution shapes. Second, clustering analyses of CCN spectra reveal that the primary drivers of CCN differences are aerosol number size distributions, rather than hygroscopicity or composition, especially at supersaturations above 0.2 %, while also allowing for a simplified understanding of seasonal and diurnal variations in CCN behavior. The predictive ability of using limited hygroscopicity data with accurate number size distributions to estimate CCN spectra is investigated, and the uncertainties of this approach are estimated. Third, the dynamics of CCN spectral clusters and concentrations are examined with cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses. We find that CCN concentrations change rapidly on the timescale of 1–3 h, with some conservation beyond that which is greatest for the lower supersaturation region of the spectrum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sarcocystis cruzi (Hasselmann, 1923) Wenyon, 1926: redescription, molecular characterization and deposition of life cycle stages specimens in the Smithsonian Museum

Currently, 7 named Sarcocystis species infect cattle: Sarcocystis hirsuta, S. cruzi, S. hominis, S. bovifelis, S. heydorni, S. bovini and S. rommeli; other, unnamed species also infect cattle. Of these parasites of cattle, a complete life cycle description is known only for S. cruzi, the most pathogenic species in cattle. The life cycle of S. cruzi was completed experimentally in 1982, before related parasite species were structurally characterized, and before the advent of molecular diagnostics; to our knowledge, no archived frozen tissues from the cattle employed in the original descriptions remain for DNA characterization. Here, we isolated DNA from a paraffin-embedded kidney of a calf experimentally infected with S. cruzi in 1980; we then sequenced portions of 18S rRNA, 28S rRNA, COX1 and Acetyl CoA genes and verified that each shares 99–100% similarity to other available isolates attributed to S. cruzi from naturally infected cattle. We also reevaluated histological sections of tissues of calves experimentally infected with S. cruzi in the original description, exploiting improvements in photographic technology to render clearer morphological detail. Finally, we reviewed all available studies of the life cycle of S. cruzi, noting that S. cruzi was transmitted between bison (Bison bison) and cattle (Bos taurus) and that the strain of parasite derived from bison appeared more pathogenic than the cattle strain. Based on these newfound molecular, morphological and physiological data, we thereby redescribed S. cruzi and deposited reference material in the Smithsonian Museum for posterity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

SPRUCE: Peat Core Sample Collection Metadata, Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, August 2024

This data set contains metadata associated with peat core samples collected from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment in August 2024. This sample metadata contains no analytical results and is a reference for analytical datasets. To ensure accessibility and discoverability, each sample was assigned an International Generic Sample Number (IGSN), a persistent identifier, using System for Earth and Extraterrestrial Sample Registration (SESAR). These samples were used for downstream analysis by multiple teams of researchers the results of which will be reported separately. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format. An aliquot of most samples is stored at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and may be available for further analysis. Access this collection event on SESAR https://doi.org/10.58052/IEJ9B00VQ. To inquire about obtaining archived samples for analysis, reach out using the Contact Sample Owner form located on the bottom of the landing page in SESAR. Note: Only dried and ground material from C Cores are available for new analysis.

Birkebak, Joshua [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000955611494)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metagenome-assembled genomes from Wind River Basin floodplain sediments Riverton, Wyoming site (May to September 2017)

Microorganisms play a key role in cycling nutrients and contaminants in the terrestrial environment depending on their genetic potential. Here we present metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) for the bacterial and archaeal community in floodplain sediment samples taken roughly every month in the period May 18 to September 13 in 2017 at a location (Pit2) close to DOE Legacy Management well 855 at the Riverton, Wyoming floodplain site in the Wind River Basin (WRB). The groundwater at this site exhibits persistent U, Mo, and sulfate plumes and is one of the field sites in focus for the SLAC Groundwater Quality SFA program. Cores were taken with a hand-auger and separated into 5-20 cm segments based on soil horizonation down to 150 cm depth below surface. Each segment was subsampled for microbial analyses. Corresponding 16S rRNA gene amplicon data is available at the NCBI Single Read Archive (SRA) Database BioProject ID PRJNA626616, and soil geochemistry data at doi:10.15485/1631972. 40 metagenomes were sequenced through JGI and can be found under Gold sequencing project: Gs0142591. Metagenomes were assembled, binned, and refined using metawrap to generate MAGs (>50% complete and < 10% contamination based on checkM scores). This dataset includes a zip file of 6993 MAG fasta files and a csv file with quality, taxonomic classification (GTDB RS220), and metagenome accessions for MAGs generated from the Wind River Basin (WRB). This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microstructure-based prediction of thermal aging strength reduction factors for grade 91 ferritic-martensitic steel

This study aimed to develop a microstructure-based mechanistic approach to address the long-term thermal aging effect on yield stress and ultimate tensile strength and to provide a physical basis for developing thermal aging factors for G91 for a design life of 60 years. Several heats of G91 steel were examined. Controlled aging experiments were conducted on two heats at temperatures of 550, 600, and 650 °C for times up to ~64,000 h. Specimens were also taken from archived creep-tested specimens of G91 and from a tube removed from the Kingston coal-fired power plant to obtain data that cover a wide range of temperatures and for aging times up to 155,000 h. Thermal aging caused significant subgrain recovery, coarsening of M 23 C 6 carbides at subgrain boundaries and MX carbonitrides within subgrains. The intermetallic Laves phase forms during aging and grows rapidly. The growth rate of the subgrain width and MX mean size during thermal aging were described by kinetic models. Thermal aging results in the reductions in the yield stress and the ultimate tensile strength of G91. The effects of thermal aging on the reductions in yield stress and ultimate tensile strength were well described by the microstructure-strength model that considers three superimposed strengthening mechanisms, namely, sub-boundary strengthening, MX precipitation hardening, and Mo solid solution strengthening. Furthermore, the model was independently validated by the ASME Code values and is being used by the ASME to develop the aging-induced strength reduction factors for G91 steel for a design life of 60 years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

700,000 years of tropical Andean glaciation

Our understanding of the climatic teleconnections that drove ice-age cycles has been limited by a paucity of well-dated tropical records of glaciation that span several glacial–interglacial intervals. Glacial deposits offer discrete snapshots of glacier extent but cannot provide the continuous records required for detailed interhemispheric comparisons. By contrast, lakes located within glaciated catchments can provide continuous archives of upstream glacial activity, but few such records extend beyond the last glacial cycle. Here a piston core from Lake Junín in the uppermost Amazon basin provides the first, to our knowledge, continuous, independently dated archive of tropical glaciation spanning 700,000 years. We find that tropical glaciers tracked changes in global ice volume and followed a clear approximately 100,000-year periodicity. An enhancement in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers relative to global ice volume occurred between 200,000 and 400,000 years ago, during sustained intervals of regionally elevated hydrologic balance that modified the regular approximately 23,000-year pacing of monsoon-driven precipitation. Millennial-scale variations in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers during the last glacial cycle were driven by variations in regional monsoon strength that were linked to temperature perturbations in Greenland ice cores; these interhemispheric connections may have existed during previous glacial cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗