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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

A dataset of 30 m annual vegetation phenology indicators (1985–2015) in urban areas of the conterminous United States

Medium-resolution satellite observations show great potential for characterizing seasonal and annual dynamics of vegetation phenology in urban domains from local to regional and global scales.However, most previous studies were conducted using coarse-resolution data,which are inadequate for characterizing the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation phenology in urban domains. In this study, we produced an annual vegetation phenology dataset in urban ecosystems for the conterminous United States (US), using all available Landsat images on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. First, we characterized the long-term mean seasonal pattern of phenology indicators of the start of season (SOS) and the end of season (EOS), using a double logistic model. Then, we identified the annual variability of these two phenology indicators by measuring the difference of dates when the vegetation index in a specific year reaches the same magnitude as its long-term mean. The derived phenology indicators agree well with in situ observations from the PhenoCam network and Harvard Forest. Comparing with results derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) data, our Landsat-derived phenology indicators can provide more spatial details. Also, we found the temporal trends of phenology indicators (e.g., SOS) derived from Landsat and MODIS are consistent overall, but the Landsat-derived results from 1985 offer a longer temporal span compared to MODIS from 2001 to present. In general, there is a spatially explicit pattern of phenology indicators from the north to the south in cities in the conterminous US, with an overall advanced SOS in the past 3 decades. The derived phenology product in the US urban domains at the national level is of great use for urban ecology studies for its medium spatial resolution (30 m) and long temporal span (30 years).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the Diurnal Radiative, Turbulent, and Biophysical Processes in the Amazonian Canopy‐Atmosphere Interface by Combining LES Simulations and Observations

Abstract We investigate the atmospheric diurnal variability inside and above the Amazonian rainforest for a representative day during the dry season. To this end, we combine high‐resolution large‐eddy simulations that are constrained and evaluated against a comprehensive observation set, including CO 2 concentrations, gathered during GoAmazon2014/15. We design systematic numerical experiments to quantify whether a multilayer approach in solving the explicit canopy improves our canopy‐atmosphere representation. We particularly focus on the relationship between photosynthesis and plant transpiration, and their distribution at leaf and canopy scales. We found the variability of photosynthesis drivers like vapor pressure deficit and leaf temperature to be about 3 times larger for sunlit leaves compared to shaded leaves. This leads to a large spread on leaf stomatal conductance values with minimum and maximum values varying more than 100%. Regarding the turbulent structure, we find wind‐driven stripe‐like shapes at the canopy top and structures resembling convective cells at the canopy. Wind‐related variables provide the best spatiotemporal agreement between model and observations. The potential temperature and heat flux profiles agree with an observed decoupling near the canopy top interface, although with less variability and cold biases of up to 3 K. The increasing complexity on the biophysical processes leads to the largest disagreements for evaporation, CO 2 plant assimilation and soil efflux. The model is able to capture the correct dependences and trends with the magnitudes still differing. We finally discuss the need to revise leaf and soil models and to complete the observations at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technology Development and Field Monitoring in nZEB - US Country report IEA HPT Annex 49 Task 3

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Heat Pumping Technologies (HPT) Annex 49, “Design and Integration of Heat Pumps for Nearly Zero Energy Buildings,” deals with the application of heat pumps (HPs) as a core component of the HVAC system for nearly or net-zero energy buildings. This report covers the Task 3 activities of the US team. Three institutions are involved on the US team and have worked on the following projects. 1) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) summarized development activities since the conclusion of IEA HPT Annex 40 for several integrated HP (IHP) systems - electric ground-source IHP and air-source IHP versions and engine-driven AS-IHP version. 2) The University of Maryland partnered with ORNL and Blue Bear Management to develop a personal cooling device called RoCo that can provide personalized conditioned air to occupants in inadequately or unconditioned environments. With RoCo, building facility management can elevate the HVAC thermostat settings without compromising occupants’ thermal comfort. Researchers have found that a 4°F increase in thermostat settings can save 12–30% energy savings. Therefore, RoCo is a promising technology that can help reduce building energy consumption and facilitate achievement of net-zero energy building performance. 3) The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on a field study effort on the NIST Net-Zero Energy Residential Test Facility. Two air-source split-system HPs were installed in a residential, net-zero energy home that was constructed as a laboratory on the NIST campus in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The first HP was a two-stage, 7 kW (2 ton), 15.8 seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER), 9.05 heating seasonal performance factor (HSPF) conventionally ducted system; the second HP was a variable-speed, 10.6 kW (3 ton), 14 SEER, 8.35 HSPF, high-velocity ducted system. These two systems operated side by side, using separate supply ducts and a common return duct, on a weekly alternating schedule to condition the home that was operated with very consistent simulated thermal loads. The team wanted to determine whether the high-velocity system could provide comparable energy-use efficiency to the conventional system. The results of this study showed that it did meet the required loads and had slightly greater efficiency; the average cooling coefficient of performance (COP) was (0.40 ± 0.11) higher, and the average heating COP was statistically equal. A new firmware was provided at the end of the heating season that greatly improved the performance of the high-velocity system; its average heating COP went from (1.8 ± 0.9) to (2.5 ± 1.1) at a 95% confidence level. The new firmware heating COP averaged (1.05 ± 0.23) higher than the old firmware over the same outdoor temperatures. The defrost performance is very different for these two systems, yet they consumed equivalent energy per HDD. The conventional system uses a timed-initiate, temperature-terminate algorithm with auxiliary electric resistive heating, whereas the high-velocity system uses calculated evaporator parameters with a hot-gas bypass before a full reverse-cycle defrost with no supplementary resistive heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Separating Climate Signals with Machine Learning

To better prepare for future changes in the water cycle, it is vital to understand the regional effects of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability on precipitation. With existing methods, there is uncertainty regarding the regional patterns of these climate processes. We propose using machine learning to decompose seasonal total and extreme precipitation (calculated by Risser et. al., 2019) into components caused by each of the following signals: anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and modes of natural climate variability (such as El Niño/ Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Pacific North American teleconnection).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Earlier snowmelt increases the strength of the carbon sink in montane meadows unequally across the growing season

1. Warming temperatures are changing winters, leading to earlier snowmelt. This shift can lead to an earlier and potentially longer growing season, which in turn may affect various plant-mediated ecosystem functions. Despite its relevance in the carbon cycle, we still know little about how earlier snowmelt impacts the carbon balance in ecosystems over the growing season, for example, does it only shift phenology, or does it affect the overall carbon uptake? Most studies rely on interannual variability in snowmelt timing, making it difficult to isolate snowmelt effects from other confounding variables, for example, temperature and moisture anomalies. To address this uncertainty, we investigated how experimentally advancing snowmelt affects the carbon cycling of montane meadows across the growing season. 2. We experimentally advanced the snowmelt date in a montane meadow by approximately 12 days and collected data every 2 weeks throughout the growing season, including net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), plant composition, and shrub, graminoid, and forb biomass. 3. Early in the growing season, GPP was higher in the early snowmelt plots, though this effect decreased as the growing season progressed. Our modelling of cumulative NEE showed a possible 22% increase in the carbon sink strength with earlier snowmelt. The effect was strongest in the early spring and diminished as the growing season progressed, with control plots being a greater carbon sink in the later season. Graminoid biomass was 47% higher in plots with earlier snowmelt, but there was no change in total biomass. 4. Synthesis. As winters warm and snowmelt occurs earlier, plant productivity will shift earlier in the growing season, and montane meadows may become a stronger carbon sink. However, this effect will differ seasonally, altering the carbon balance in montane meadows.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub-Region of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic During 1979–2019

Observations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub-region of the U.S. mid-Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. Herein, this study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi-decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi-decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large-scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi-decadal relationships between precipitation and large-scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter-annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid-Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating three evapotranspiration estimates from model of different complexity over China using the ILAMB benchmarking system

The land surface models range in complexity of terrestrial evapotranspiration, yet it is unknown how model complexity translates to accuracy of modeled evapotranspiration estimates. Here, we use the International Land Model Benchmarking system to assess ET estimates from three models of varying complexity driven by the same forcing datasets: an earth system model, a terrestrial biosphere model, and a stand-alone ET model. The performance assessment includes both temporal and spatial evaluation, and different plant functional types across China. Our results indicate that the most complex model, an earth system model, performed best against the benchmarking datasets and metrics. Terrestrial biosphere model performed best in simulating inter-annual variability of ET, while earth system model performed best in simulating the seasonal cycle. The more complex models (earth system model and terrestrial biosphere model) perform better in forest, shrub and crop ecosystems, while the simpler model (stand-alone ET model) perform better in grass ecosystems. Our study demonstrates the impact of model complexity on ET estimates and highlights directions for future ET model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lack of long-term effect of coarse woody debris dam restoration on ecosystem functioning and water quality in Coastal Plain streams

Coarse woody debris (CWD) addition is a restoration technique that has been used to reduce effects of landscape disturbance on instream habitat. However, efficacy of this technique for improving ecosystem condition is not well established, in part because monitoring designed to evaluate long-term efficacy is rare. We assessed the effectiveness of CWD additions in disturbed Coastal Plain streams at Fort Benning Military Installation, Georgia, USA, 14 y after initial restoration. In October 2003, 4 disturbed streams received CWD additions (restored streams), and 4 streams were left as unrestored controls. Pre-restoration (2001–2003) and post-restoration (2003–2006) monitoring of nutrient uptake, stream metabolism, and water-quality variables revealed 1) minimal change in water-quality variables, 2) increased stream metabolism and nutrient-uptake rates immediately following restoration, and 3) decreased metabolism and uptake over the remainder of the 3-y post-restoration period. We returned to these streams in 2017 and 2018, measured the same variables, and found minimal long-term effects of restoration on water quality, nutrient uptake, and whole-stream metabolism indicators; however, streamwater pH decreased in all streams 14 y after restoration, and there was a weak treatment × period interaction, indicating that CWD additions may decrease pH in the long term. Further, we found few relationships between watershed disturbance and water-quality variables and ecosystem function metrics, although some relationships were apparent during certain seasons and years. Furthermore, our study is one of the few that have assessed the long-term effects of CWD additions, or any other stream-restoration technique, on ecosystem function. These long-term assessments may be necessary to determine if restorations are a good use of limited resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Four-Dimensional Carbon Cycle of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle, dominating the oceanic uptake of heat and carbon added by anthropogenic activities and modulating atmospheric carbon concentrations in past, present, and future climates. However, the remote and extreme conditions found there make the Southern Ocean perpetually one of the most difficult places on the planet to observe and to model, resulting in significant and persistent uncertainties in our knowledge of the oceanic carbon cycle there. The flow of carbon in the Southern Ocean is traditionally understood using a zonal mean framework, in which the meridional overturning circulation drives the latitudinal variability observed in both air–sea flux and interior ocean carbon concentration. However, recent advances, based largely on expanded observation and modeling capabilities in the region, reveal the importance of processes acting at smaller scales, including basin-scale zonal asymmetries in mixed-layer depth, mesoscale eddies, and high-frequency atmospheric variability. Assessing the current state of knowledge and remaining gaps emphasizes the need to move beyond the zonal mean picture and embrace a four-dimensional understanding of the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of U.S. West Coast Mountain Snowpack to Local Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations: Insights from Numerical Modeling and Machine Learning

Sea surface temperature (SST) significantly modulates the precipitation and temperature over land, with important consequences on land surface processes such as snowpack. Compared to the impact of remote SST, the effect of nearshore/local SST is less well understood. In this study, the impact of local SST on the mountain snowpack of the U.S. West Coast is investigated using two 6-km regional climate simulations driven by the same lateral boundary conditions but with time-varying versus time-invariant and warmer local SSTs during 2003–15. Results show that local SST warming leads to warmer winter with more precipitation over the mountains. Meanwhile, the removal of SST temporal variability results in reduced temperature variability but increased precipitation variability. As a result, winter snow accumulation decreases by ~200 mm per season in the Cascade Mountains in the north but increases by ~100 mm per season in the Sierra Nevada in the south. Such a dipole response results from the competing effects of precipitation and temperature change at different elevations and are amplified by the enhanced atmospheric river moisture transport. To further delineate the relative contributions of different meteorological factors to the snowpack response, two neural network models were developed to predict the snow behaviors at seasonal and monthly scales. These models reveal the dominant influence of the total amount and the average temperature of precipitation on the snowpack response. Furthermore, these findings highlight the sensitivity of mountain snowpack to local SST in the western United States and underscore the importance of local SST and atmospheric rives to accurate snowpack estimations for water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cooling Egypt: Cost and benefits of room air conditioner efficiency improvement in Egypt

Egypt is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and North Africa region with a population of a total of 106 million (as of July 2022). Increasing urbanization, population growth, and increasing temperatures will likely continue to drive demand for electricity from air conditioning, with corresponding negative impacts on the peak load, air quality, and greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant use and energy consumption. Since 2003, Egypt has adopted a standards and labeling program for various appliances, and has improved its room air conditioner (RAC) energy efficiency requirements in 2016 and 2017. However, its market is still dominated by inefficient fixed-speed drive (FSD) RACs due to a price-sensitive market. Seasonal metrics such as Cooling Season Performance Factor (CSPF) measure the energy efficiency of FSD and variable-speed drive (VSD) RACs on the same scale. Leading markets, most notably China, have already adopted a new MEPS in 2020 and 2022, which align largely with the United for Efficiency (U4E) Model Regulations Guidelines. India has also adopted a CSPF metric. Both India and China are now experiencing (1) increased demand and consumption of higher efficiency VSD RACs, as well as (2) a corresponding drop in prices from the economies of scale of production of these higher efficiency RACs. Because China is a leading manufacturer in the global air conditioner (AC) market, its adoption of the model U4E regulations have effectively raised the energy efficiency of the ACs in the global market. To achieve the benefits of taking a similar approach to Egypt’s market, we offer the following recommendations: 1. Adopt a common metric to measure the efficiency of both FSD and VSD RACs 2. Raise the stringency of MEPS to the level of the U4E Model Regulation Guidelines 3. Restructure the labeling program from the “A++” labeling scheme to a simpler A through E or a star-rating program 4. Strengthen the compliance regime governing the Egyptian AC MEPS 5. Assist small and medium AC manufacturers in Egypt to transition manufacturing lines to produce low-cost, high-efficiency VSD RACs. Adopting these recommendations would reduce Egypt’s electricity consumption to 11 TWh in 2030 and 89 TWh in 2050—with corresponding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions and avoided generation capacity requirements compared to the baseline.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing the Energy Efficiency of Room Air Conditioners in Malaysia: Opportunities and Impact Analysis

The global room air conditioner (AC) market is rapidly transitioning toward variable-speed units, offering significant opportunities for energy-efficient designs and the adoption of low-global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants. Emerging economies, particularly in regions such as Malaysia, are expected to drive consumer demand for ACs. This report reviews key trends in the Malaysian AC market, including the availability of high-efficient ACs. Currently, variable-speed units account for 30–65% of the market, achieving cooling seasonal performance factor (CSPF) levels of between 5.0 and 6.0. Cost comparisons show that CSPF 5–6-rated, inverter-driven room ACs are competitively priced against lower-efficiency, fixed-speed units.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Species-specific acoustic responses by bats to ultrasonic stimuli used for reducing bat-wind turbine interactions

An unintended consequence of wind energy generation is bat fatalities caused by wind turbine blade strikes. One potential approach to reduce collision risk is to use ultrasound to create an uncomfortable or disorienting airspace around wind turbine blades. Ultrasonic deterrents (UDs) have produced mixed results in experimental field studies at commercial wind energy facilities, with effectiveness varying by species and location. It is possible that some species can alter their normal echolocation characteristics to counter the signal of UDs. Our broad objective was to maximize the effectiveness of a UD by comparing changes in echolocation characteristics during three UD frequency emissions among species, between seasons, and between sex. We hypothesized that UD emissions with frequencies most similar to each species’ echolocation characteristics would be more likely to alter the bats’ echolocation, and bat responses would vary between seasons and sex for each species. We released wild-captured bats into a 60 m × 10 m × 4.4 m (length × width × height) flight cage located in San Marcos, Texas, USA, from July to October 2020 and March to May 2021 and monitored echolocation frequencies with ultrasonic microphones. We conducted trials on Brazilian free-tailed bats ( Tadarida brasiliensis ; n = 54), cave myotis ( Myotis velifer ; n = 44), red bats ( Lasiurus blossevilli , Lasiurus borealis ; n = 41), evening bats ( Nycticeius humeralis ; n = 32), and tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ; n = 8). We found that species with high-frequency echolocation calls altered their echolocation signatures more commonly during high-frequency UD emissions, whereas low-frequency bats altered their echolocation signatures more commonly during low-frequency UD emissions. Additionally, echolocation responses varied between seasons and sexes for several species. Variations in responses may be dependent on species migratory status, differences in mating behavior and mating season, hormonal differences between sexes and seasons, and/or constraints on echolocation adaptability. Our results offer insights into the variable effectiveness of UDs at reducing bat fatalities at wind turbines and provide information for potential adjustments to UDs for improved success.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation and validation of optimal start control strategy for air conditioners and heat pumps

Commercial buildings are responsible for approximately 20 % of the total energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Over 85 % of these buildings lack building automation systems, and many are small (<50,000 square feet), underserved, and use rooftop units (RTUs) for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning needs. Because these buildings lack proper energy management systems, several operational deficiencies lead to excess energy consumption. Studies have shown that managing the RTUs’ heating and cooling set points, schedules, setbacks, and optimal start can result in a 20 % to 25 % reduction in electricity consumption in small commercial buildings. These buildings typically use fixed schedules to start the RTUs 60 to 120 min before occupancy begins, which results in excess energy consumption. This paper presents research that demonstrates and evaluates the performance of four optimal start methods, which utilize data-based modeling as a key element in facilitating adaptive control in response to time-varying inputs while requiring minimal sensor inputs. The evaluation found energy savings in two commercial buildings equipped with RTUs by periodically alternating four different optimal start models during the cooling and heating season. The resulting energy savings are positive for all models and range from 2 to 5 kWh/day/unit. The units on the east side of the building showed higher savings, while interior units showed greater variability in savings due to the differences in capacities and room sizes. Savings were considerably greater during the heating season compared to the cooling season. The performance of all four models on Mondays was poor; models suggested a shorter optimal start time, which resulted in relatively larger errors. Finally, the future work will look at using a different model for the days after weekends and holidays.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reverse-zoonoses of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza A viruses and evolution in United States swine results in viruses with zoonotic potential

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic (pdm09) lineage of influenza A virus (IAV) crosses interspecies barriers with frequent human-to-swine spillovers each year. These spillovers reassort and drift within swine populations, leading to genetically and antigenically novel IAV that represent a zoonotic threat. We quantified interspecies transmission of the pdm09 lineage, persistence in swine, and identified how evolution in swine impacted zoonotic risk. Human and swine pdm09 case counts between 2010 and 2020 were correlated and human pdm09 burden and circulation directly impacted the detection of pdm09 in pigs. However, there was a relative absence of pdm09 circulation in humans during the 2020–21 season that was not reflected in swine. During the 2020–21 season, most swine pdm09 detections originated from human-to-swine spillovers from the 2018–19 and 2019–20 seasons that persisted in swine. We identified contemporary swine pdm09 representatives of each persistent spillover and quantified cross-reactivity between human seasonal H1 vaccine strains and the swine strains using a panel of monovalent ferret antisera in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. The swine pdm09s had variable antigenic reactivity to vaccine antisera, but each swine pdm09 clade exhibited significant reduction in cross-reactivity to one or more of the human seasonal vaccine strains. Further supporting zoonotic risk, we showed phylogenetic evidence for 17 swine-to-human transmission events of pdm09 from 2010 to 2021, 11 of which were not previously classified as variants, with each of the zoonotic cases associated with persistent circulation of pdm09 in pigs. These data demonstrate that reverse-zoonoses and evolution of pdm09 in swine results in viruses that are capable of zoonotic transmission and represent a potential pandemic threat.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet

Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.

Atmospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2019

High-Resolution Tropical Channel Model Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Variability

We tailored a tropical channel configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to study tropical cyclone (TC) activity and associated climate variabilities. This tropical channel model (TCM) covers from 30°S to 50°N at 27-km horizontal resolution, with physics parameterizations carefully selected to achieve more realistic simulations of TCs and large-scale climate mean states. In this work we performed 15-member ensembles of retrospective simulations from 1982 to 2016 hurricane seasons. A thorough comparison with observations demonstrates that the TCM yields significant skills in simulating TC activity climatology and variabilities in each basin, as well as TC physical structures. The correlation of the ensemble averaged accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) with observations in the western North Pacific (WNP), eastern North Pacific (ENP), and North Atlantic (NAT) is 0.80, 0.64, and 0.61, respectively, but is insignificant in the north Indian Ocean (NIO). Moreover, the TCM-simulated modulations of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the large-scale environment and TC genesis also agree well with observations. To examine the TCM’s potential for seasonal TC prediction, the model is used to forecast the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons, using bias-corrected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the CFSv2 seasonal prediction results. The TCM accurately predicts the hyperactive 2017 NAT hurricane season and near-normal WNP and ENP hurricane seasons when initialized in May. In addition, the TCM accurately predicts TC activity in the NAT and WNP during the 2018 season, but underpredicts ENP TC activity, in association with a poor ENSO forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal drivers of dissolved oxygen across a tidal creek–marsh interface revealed by machine learning

Abstract Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key biogeochemical control in coastal systems, and its concentration and drivers vary markedly through time and space. This makes it difficult to accurately represent coastal DO and associated biogeochemical processes in models, limiting our ability to predict how these systems will respond to global change. We obtained high‐frequency (5‐min) in situ measurements of DO collected at three locations across the interface of a tidal creek and coastal marsh in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Random Forest machine learning models quantified the importance of three categories of environmental drivers (Aquatic, Climatic, and Terrestrial) of DO variability across the creek–marsh interface. We selected two 4‐month datasets representing Summer and Winter seasonal periods to test two hypotheses on the dominant drivers of DO at the coastal interface. We found that the Terrestrial driver—characterized by long periods of anaerobic conditions and episodic pulses in DO after floods—was most important during the Winter, whereas the Aquatic driver—characterized by variability over tidal, diel, and lunar cycles—was most important during the Summer. We explored how future climate change scenarios could alter the drivers of DO variability using a cumulative sums driver–response framework. Our results suggest that under climate change, Aquatic and Climatic drivers may increase in importance during the Summer, potentially linked to changing metabolic regimes and sea level, with Terrestrial driver importance potentially increasing during the Winter. Our approach highlights useful methods for understanding the spatiotemporal complexity of oxygen across coastal interfaces and quantifying the relative importance of distinct environmental drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗