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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations

The urban–rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both model versions can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales in all model specifications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effects of a 33-Ion Sequential Beam Galactic Cosmic Ray Analog on Male Mouse Behavior and Evaluation of CDDO-EA as a Radiation Countermeasure

In long-term spaceflight, astronauts will face unique cognitive loads and social challenges which will be complicated by communication delays with Earth. It is important to understand the central nervous system (CNS) effects of deep spaceflight and the associated unavoidable exposure to galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Rodent studies show single- or simple-particle combination exposure alters CNS endpoints, including hippocampal-dependent behavior. An even better Earth-based simulation of GCR is now available, consisting of a 33-beam (33-GCR) exposure. However, the effect of whole-body 33-GCR exposure on rodent behavior is unknown, and no 33-GCR CNS countermeasures have been tested. Here astronaut-age-equivalent (6mo-old) C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to 33-GCR (75cGy, a Mars mission dose). Pre-/during/post-Sham or 33-GCR exposure, mice received a diet containing a ‘vehicle’ formulation alone or with the antioxidant/anti-inflammatory compound CDDO-EA as a potential countermeasure. Behavioral testing beginning 4mo post-irradiation suggested radiation and diet did not affect measures of exploration/anxiety-like behaviors (open field, elevated plus maze) or recognition of a novel object. However, in 3-Chamber Social Interaction (3-CSI), CDDO-EA/33-GCR mice failed to spend more time exploring a holder containing a novel mouse vs. a novel object (empty holder), suggesting sociability deficits. Also, Vehicle/33-GCR and CDDO-EA/Sham mice failed to discriminate between a novel stranger vs. familiarized stranger mouse, suggesting blunted preference for social novelty. CDDO-EA given pre-/ during/post-irradiation did not attenuate the 33-GCR-induced blunting of preference for social novelty. Future elucidation of the mechanisms underlying 33-GCR-induced blunting of preference for social novelty will improve risk analysis for astronauts which may in-turn improve countermeasures.

Space radiation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effects of A 33-Ion Sequential Beam Galactic Cosmic Ray Analog on Male Mouse Behavior and Evaluation of CDDO-EA as A Radiation Countermeasure

In long-term spaceflight, astronauts will face unique cognitive loads and social challenges which will be complicated by communication delays with Earth. It is important to understand the central nervous system (CNS) effects of deep spaceflight and the associated unavoidable exposure to galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Rodent studies show single- or simple-particle combination exposure alters CNS endpoints, including hippocampal-dependent behavior. An even better Earth-based simulation of GCR is now available, consisting of a 33-beam (33-GCR) exposure. However, the effect of whole-body 33-GCR exposure on rodent behavior is unknown, and no 33-GCR CNS countermeasures have been tested. Here astronaut-age-equivalent (6mo-old) C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to 33-GCR (75cGy, a Mars mission dose). Pre-/during/post-Sham or 33-GCR exposure, mice received a diet containing a ‘vehicle’ formulation alone or with the antioxidant/anti-inflammatory compound CDDO-EA as a potential countermeasure. Behavioral testing beginning 4mo post-irradiation suggested radiation and diet did not affect measures of exploration/anxiety-like behaviors (open field, elevated plus maze) or recognition of a novel object. However, in 3-Chamber Social Interaction (3-CSI), CDDO-EA/33-GCR mice failed to spend more time exploring a holder containing a novel mouse vs. a novel object (empty holder), suggesting sociability deficits. Also, Vehicle/33-GCR and CDDO-EA/Sham mice failed to discriminate between a novel stranger vs. familiarized stranger mouse, suggesting blunted preference for social novelty. CDDO-EA given pre-/ during/post-irradiation did not attenuate the 33-GCR-induced blunting of preference for social novelty. Future elucidation of the mechanisms underlying 33-GCR-induced blunting of preference for social novelty will improve risk analysis for astronauts which may in-turn improve countermeasures.

Space radiation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overcoming barriers to improved decision-making for battery deployment in the clean energy transition

Decarbonization plans depend on the rapid, large-scale deployment of batteries to sufficiently decarbonize the electricity system and on-road transport. This can take many forms, shaped by technology, materials, and supply chain selection, which will have local and global environmental and social impacts. Current knowledge gaps limit the ability of decision-makers to make choices in facilitating battery deployment that minimizes or avoids unintended environmental and social consequences. These gaps include a lack of harmonized, accessible, and up-to-date data on manufacturing and supply chains and shortcomings within sustainability and social impact assessment methods, resulting in uncertainty that limits incorporation of research into policy making. These gaps can lead to unintended detrimental effects of large-scale battery deployment. To support decarbonization goals while minimizing negative environmental and social impacts, we elucidate current barriers to tracking how decision-making for large-scale battery deployment translates to environmental and social impacts and recommend steps to overcome them.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven optimized control of the COVID-19 epidemics

Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within the US to parametrize a model that well describes the propagation of the disease in each area. We then introduce a time-varying control input that represents the level of social distancing imposed on the population of a given area and solve an optimal control problem with the goal of minimizing the impact of social distancing on the economy in the presence of relevant constraints, such as a desired level of suppression for the epidemics at a terminal time. We find that with the exception of the initial time and of the final time, the optimal control input is well approximated by a constant, specific to each area, which contrasts with the implemented system of reopening ‘in phases’. For all the areas considered, this optimal level corresponds to stricter social distancing than the level estimated from data. Proper selection of the time period for application of the control action optimally is important: depending on the particular MSA this period should be either short or long or intermediate. We also consider the case that the transmissibility increases in time (due e.g. to increasingly colder weather), for which we find that the optimal control solution yields progressively stricter measures of social distancing. We finally compute the optimal control solution for a model modified to incorporate the effects of vaccinations on the population and we see that depending on a number of factors, social distancing measures could be optimally reduced during the period over which vaccines are administered to the population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Building and experimenting with an agent-based model to study the population-level impact of CommunityRx, a clinic-based community resource referral intervention

CommunityRx (CRx), an information technology intervention, provides patients with a personalized list of healthful community resources (HealtheRx). In repeated clinical studies, nearly half of those who received clinical “doses” of the HealtheRx shared their information with others (“social doses”). Clinical trial design cannot fully capture the impact of information diffusion, which can act as a force multiplier for the intervention. Furthermore, experimentation is needed to understand how intervention delivery can optimize social spread under varying circumstances. To study information diffusion from CRx under varying conditions, we built an agent-based model (ABM). This study describes the model building process and illustrates how an ABM provides insight about information diffusion through in silico experimentation. To build the ABM, we constructed a synthetic population (“agents”) using publicly-available data sources. Using clinical trial data, we developed empirically-informed processes simulating agent activities, resource knowledge evolution and information sharing. Using RepastHPC and chiSIM software, we replicated the intervention in silico, simulated information diffusion processes, and generated emergent information diffusion networks. The CRx ABM was calibrated using empirical data to replicate the CRx intervention in silico. We used the ABM to quantify information spread via social versus clinical dosing then conducted information diffusion experiments, comparing the social dosing effect of the intervention when delivered by physicians, nurses or clinical clerks. The synthetic population (N = 802,191) exhibited diverse behavioral characteristics, including activity and knowledge evolution patterns. In silico delivery of the intervention was replicated with high fidelity. Large-scale information diffusion networks emerged among agents exchanging resource information. Varying the propensity for information exchange resulted in networks with different topological characteristics. Community resource information spread via social dosing was nearly 4 fold that from clinical dosing alone and did not vary by delivery mode. This study, using CRx as an example, demonstrates the process of building and experimenting with an ABM to study information diffusion from, and the population-level impact of, a clinical information-based intervention. While the focus of the CRx ABM is to recreate the CRx intervention in silico, the general process of model building, and computational experimentation presented is generalizable to other large-scale ABMs of information diffusion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning (Vale, 2014). Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities (Malloy & Ashcraft, 2020; Adger, 2003). Such participatory planning processes may offer the public little opportunity to influence the process itself or the outcomes (Smith & McDonough, 2001). They might ignore important public values or alternative ways of knowing which can be critical assets in resilience (Few et al., 2007). Designing communities for climate action and resilience means creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape those decisions and experience related benefits. Having the opportunity to shape one’s community is necessary for human flourishing (Allen, 2016). Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My mixed methods research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities, offices of community engagement, and practitioners. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings. References: Adger, W. N. (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography, 79, 387-404. Allen, D. (2016). Toward a connected society. Our compelling interests: The value of diversity for democracy and a prosperous society, 71-105. Few, R., Brown, K., & Tompkins, E. L. (2007). Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion. Climate Policy, 7(1), 46–59. Malloy, J. T., & Ashcraft, C. M. (2020). A framework for implementing socially just climate adaptation. Climatic Change, 160(1), 1–14. Smith, P. D., & McDonough, M. H. (2001). Beyond public participation: Fairness in natural resource decision making. Society & natural resources, 14(3), 239-249. Vale, L. J. (2014). The politics of resilient cities: whose resilience and whose city? Building Research & Information, 42(2), 191–201.

Callaham, Shannon↗
NASA NTRS1992

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram.

Jacobson, Harold K.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Evolution of Networks in Extreme and Isolated Environment

This article reports on the evolution of network structure as it relates to the formal and informal aspects of social roles in well bounded, isolated groups. Research was conducted at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station over a 3-year period. Data was collected on crewmembers' networks of social interaction and personal advice over each of the 8.5-month winters during a time of complete isolation. In addition, data was collected on informal social role structure (e.g., instrumental leadership, expressive leadership). It was hypothesized that development and maintenance of a cohesive group structure was related to the presence of and group consensus on various informal social roles. The study found that core-periphery structures (i.e., reflecting cohesion) in winter-over groups were associated with the presence of critically important informal social roles (e.g., expressive leadership) and high group consensus on such informal roles. On the other hand, the evolution of clique structures (i.e., lack of cohesion) were associated with the absence of critical roles and a lack of consensus on these roles, particularly the critically important role of instrumental leader.

Johnson, Jeffrey C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Determination and Applications of Environmental Costs at Different Sized Airports: Aircraft Noise and Engine Emissions

With the increasing trend of charging for externalities and the aim of encouraging the sustainable development of the air transport industry, there is a need to evaluate the social costs of these undesirable side effects, mainly aircraft noise and engine emissions, for different airports. The aircraft noise and engine emissions social costs are calculated in monetary terms for five different airports, ranging from hub airports to small regional airports. The number of residences within different levels of airport noise contours and the aircraft noise classifications are the main determinants for accessing aircraft noise social costs. Whist, based on the damages of different engine pollutants on the human health, vegetation, materials, aquatic ecosystem and climate, the aircraft engine emissions social costs vary from engine types to aircraft categories. The results indicate that the relationship appears to be curvilinear between environmental costs and the traffic volume of an airport. The results and methodology of environmental cost calculation could input for to the proposed European wide harmonized noise charges as well as the social cost benefit analysis of airports.

Lu, Cherie↗
NASA NTRS2010

There's Enough Space for Everyone

Only a few fortunate people have the opportunity to go into space and experience the wonders of our universe first-hand. But thanks to social media and virtual worlds, many unique opportunities exist for us to learn, explore and experience what s out there from wherever we are. NASA and Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) are making this even easier to do. From blogs to Twitter messages, from Facebook pages to Flickr Photo sites, NASA is leveraging social media to share never-before-seen footage and inside information on spaceflight, scientific discoveries and other space activities. Over the last year, Marshall has reached more than half-a-million viewers through its high-profile, real-time blogs. Through its Watching a Launch blog, visitors were invited to take the "virtual" rides of their lives as they received a first-hand account of seeing a powerful shuttle launch - up close and personal. Through the Shuttle Ferry Flight blog, they got to experience the Shuttle Atlantis journey home to Kennedy Space Center as it rode "piggyback" on a modified Boeing 747 airplane. This year, Marshall s Flickr photo galleries have been visited over 700,000 times, Ares rocket videos have been viewed on iTunes, YouTube, TeacherTube and NASA Web sites more than 1.2 million times, and Marshall s Facebook Page has over 2,800 "friends" who regularly follow NASA. Social media tools have been a powerful way to reach and inspire the public, but NASA has also used these tools effectively to promote education and outreach. From events such as the Great Moonbuggy Race to the Student Launch Initiative, Marshall has used social networks to interest, excite and engage students. This presentation shares some of NASA s experiences on what has worked . . . and what hasn't . . . and seeks to spread the message that through social media "there's enough space for everyone."

Schumacher, Daniel M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Practical Application of Sociology in Systems Engineering

Systems engineering involves both the integration of the system and the integration of the disciplines which develop and operate the system. Integrating the disciplines is a sociological effort to bring together different groups, who often have different terminology, to achieve a common goal, the system. The focus for the systems engineer is information flow through the organization, between the disciplines, to ensure the system is developed and operated will all relevant information informing system decisions. The practical application of the sociology in systems engineering brings in various organizational development concepts including the principles of planned renegotiation and the application of principles to address information barriers created by organizational culture. Concepts such as specification of ignorance, consistent terminology, opportunity structures, role-sets, and the reclama (reconsideration) process are all important sociological approaches that help address the organizational social structure (culture). In bringing the disciplines together, the systems engineer must also be wary of social ambivalence, social anomie, social dysfunction, and insider-outsider behavior. Unintended consequences can result when these social issues are present. These issues can occur when localized subcultures shift from the overarching organizational culture, or when the organizational culture prevents achievement of system goals. These sociological principles provide the systems engineer with key approaches to manage the information flow through the organization as the disciplines are integrated and share their information and provides key sociological barriers to information flow through the organization. This paper will discuss the practical application of sociological principles to systems engineering.

Watson, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Results for the Subjective Habitability Acceptability Questionnaire From HERA C5 and C6

BACKGROUND The impact of habitability on psychological and performance outcomes is recognized as an important factor in habitat and vehicle design—especially as missions increase in length. Formal evaluation of habitability’s impact is possible using the Spaceflight Habitability Acceptability Questionnaire (SHAQ), which was psychometrically validated by Roma et al. in 2022 [1]. The SHAQ survey systematically quantifies the relationships between habitat areas (e.g., bedroom, kitchen, hygiene area, office, etc.) and behavioral health and performance (BHP) outcomes (i.e., individual and team performance, mood, stress, sleep, social interaction), and considers the moderating effects of key habitability aspects (i.e., privacy, control, convenience, efficiency, comfort, social density) on that relationship. METHOD Respondents were HERA participants from Campaign 5 and 6 (n = 32). Data from three environments were used in our SHAQ analyses: SHAQ in HERA (in-mission), SHAQ at Home (pre-mission), and SHAQ in Hotel (pre- and post-mission for C6, just pre-mission for C5). For each habitat area, respondents are asked how that area layout impacts six BHP outcomes on a 201-point visual analog scale with the anchors: impairs, has no effect, and facilitates. They also had the option to respond “Not Applicable”. Follow up questions asked why six key habitability aspects (e.g., privacy) influenced the way the habitat area affected a given outcome. Participants indicated whether a habitat area’s habitability aspects were inadequate (low score) to adequate (midpoint) to ideal (high score), using a 201-point visual analog scale as well but were binned to a 7-point scale for analyses. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION When comparing across environments, ratings of BHP outcomes were worse in HERA compared to home and pre-mission hotel, but rebounded for the post-mission hotel such that post-mission hotel rating were often higher than all previous ratings. Within HERA, ratings of how a habitat area impacted an outcome skewed towards facilitation with communal areas (i.e., galley and office) rated most facilitating. The follow up questions about why six key aspects related to habitability moderated outcomes indicated that most habitat areas were rated as having “adequate” habitability characteristics. Privacy was the only moderator with average scores below adequate for all habitat areas. The office had the most moderators scoring above adequate for all habitat areas. Ratings indicated small to moderate effects of layouts on BHP outcomes: with facilitating layouts averaging between 4 and 5, and impairing layouts averaging between 2 and 4. The sleeping module layout facilitated sleep, with ratings indicating adequate comfort but inadequate privacy. The galley layout facilitated social interaction and mood, with ratings indicating adequate efficiency and convenience. The office layout facilitated social interaction, team and individual performance, with ratings similarly indicating adequate efficiency and convenience. The hygiene module worsened individual performance, mood and stress, with ratings indicating less than adequate privacy and social density. Our findings suggest there is value in having dedicated team and individual spaces. REFERENCES [1] Roma, P. G., Landon, L.B., Spencer, C. A., Whitmire, A. M., & Williams, T. J. (2022). SHAQ: Development and Validation. Human Factors: Special Issue on Spaceflight, 65(6), 1074-1104. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project was funded by the NASA Human Research Program directed task Human Factors and Behavioral Performance in HERA (PI = S. Bell) to the BHP Lab. KBR Inc. and JES Tech authors were supported by KBR’s Human Health and Performance Contract NNJ15HK11B with NASA.

behavioral health↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increasing the Reach of Low-Income Energy Programmes through Behaviourally Informed Peer Referral

Subsidized energy assistance programmes are a popular policy tool for promoting energy justice, but, like other social benefits programmes, are often undersubscribed. To improve uptake, some programmes have turned to social influence strategies, such as asking programme participants to refer their peers. Here, through a field experiment with California's low-income solar programme (N = 7,676), we show that referral behaviour depends on how existing participants are approached. Adding behavioural science strategies to a referral reward increases peer referral rates, referral quality and ultimately solar adoption. Compared with only reminding existing adopters of a potential US$200 reward for referrals that result in adoption, adding an appeal to reciprocity through a non-contingent US$1 gift - and further combining this gift with a simplified referral process - leads to 2.6-5.2 times as many solar contracts. These results highlight the potential of behaviourally informed peer referral programmes to accelerate equitable access to clean energy.

California↗
DOE OSTI2020

Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making

It is widely believed that one’s peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the “pattern” by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game decides among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1) even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when their peers make a similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2) when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments, we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion, which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Costs Associated with Wind Energy Opposition and Stakeholder Engagement

Wind energy social science research historically focused on the social acceptance of wind energy development. Research in this field is robust, and scholars have identified drivers influencing attitudes and acceptance. The criteria defining the opposition of wind energy, and their costs, although related, are less well understood. This gap in research includes the costs of delayed and failed projects to communities and developers. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 28 - The Social Science of Wind Energy Acceptance outlined a work package to help answer that question. The first deliverable for IEA Wind Task 28, Work Package 2, was an annotated bibliography that identified key pieces of literature that quantify the costs of opposition to wind projects. Although there is a robust wind social acceptance literature, our efforts highlighted that there has been little research directly quantifying the cost of opposition, engagement, delays, and failures. To directly summarize the appropriate literature and provide context for potential future work, the literature review ranged from directly relevant articles to works providing context and valuable information for our research objective in the future. This associated deliverable, a briefing document summarizing the outcomes of our literature search, is meant to guide future research on opposition to wind energy for IEA Task 28 and beyond.

opposition↗
DOE OSTI2021

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗