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Radiation safety in high-altitude air traffic

Results of an experimental and theoretical study on dose equivalent rates at high altitudes are presented. The flight personnel flying 500 hours per year at SST cruise altitude in high latitudes (maximum of radiation) would be exposed to less than 14% of the maximum permissible dose rate (MPD) for radiation workers (5 rem/yr), averaged over the solar cycle. One-half or more is due to energetic secondary neutrons that are penetrant and highly biologically effective. Passengers would, in general, be exposed only to the low-level galactic cosmic rays, except for a relative few who encounter rare, intense, and energetic solar-particle events. If the airplane descends to subsonic altitudes during events such as that of Feb. 23, 1956 - the most intense and unique giant energy event of the last 35 years - passenger exposure even then remains at or below permissible levels (0.5 rem for the general population). Systems of radiation monitoring are briefly discussed which will prevent false alarms and which would be useful in disproving overexposure in potential malpractice suits against the airlines. In subsonic jet transports the exposure of the crews is lower by a factor 3 to 4; for passengers it is about the same for the same distance traveled. Solar events, except for giant energy events, will yield only a minor fraction of the MPD of the general population.

Foelsche, T.↗

Radiation protection and instrumentation

Radiation was found not to be an operational problem during the Apollo program. Doses received by the crewmen of Apollo missions 7 through 17 were small because no major solar-particle events occurred during those missions. One small event was detected by a radiation sensor outside the Apollo 12 spacecraft, but no increase in radiation dose to the crewmen inside the spacecraft was detected. Radiation protection for the Apollo program was focused on both the peculiarities of the natural space radiation environment and the increased prevalence of manmade radiation sources on the ground and onboard the spacecraft. Radiation-exposure risks to crewmen were assessed and balanced against mission gain to determine mission constraints. Operational radiation evaluation required specially designed radiation detection systems onboard the spacecraft in addition to the use of satellite data, solar observatory support, and other liaison. Control and management of radioactive sources and radiation-generating equipment was important in minimizing radiation exposure of ground-support personnel, researchers, and the Apollo flight and backup crewmen.

J. Vernon Bailey↗

Lunar lava tube radiation safety analysis

For many years it has been suggested that lava tubes on the Moon could provide an ideal location for a manned lunar base, by providing shelter from various natural hazards, such as cosmic radiation, meteorites, micrometeoroids, and impact crater ejecta, and also providing a natural environmental control, with a nearly constant temperature, unlike that of the lunar surface showing extreme variation in its diurnal cycle. An analysis of radiation safety issues on lunar lava tubes has been performed by considering radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and Solar Particle Events (SPE) interacting with the lunar surface, modeled as a regolith layer and rock. The chemical composition has been chosen as typical of the lunar regions where the largest number of lava tube candidates are found. Particles have been transported all through the regolith and the rock, and received particles flux and doses have been calculated. The radiation safety of lunar lava tubes environments has been demonstrated.

Non-programmatic↗

Numerical Study of the Generation of Linear Energy Transfer Spectra for Space Radiation Applications

In analyzing charged particle spectra in space due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE), the conversion of particle energy spectra into linear energy transfer (LET) distributions is a convenient guide in assessing biologically significant components of these spectra. The mapping of LET to energy is triple valued and can be defined only on open energy subintervals where the derivative of LET with respect to energy is not zero. Presented here is a well-defined numerical procedure which allows for the generation of LET spectra on the open energy subintervals that are integrable in spite of their singular nature. The efficiency and accuracy of the numerical procedures is demonstrated by providing examples of computed differential and integral LET spectra and their equilibrium components for historically large SPEs and 1977 solar minimum GCR environments. Due to the biological significance of tissue, all simulations are done with tissue as the target material.

Badavi, Francis F.↗

Real Time Space Weather Support for Chandra X-ray Observatory Operations

NASA launched the Chandra X-ray Observatory in July 1999. Soon after first light in August 1999, however, degradation in the energy resolution and charge transfer efficiency of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) x-ray detectors was observed. The source of the degradation was quickly identified as radiation damage in the charge-transfer channel of the front-illuminated CCDs, by weakly penetrating ("soft", 100-500 keV) protons as Chandra passed through the Earth s radiation belts and ring currents. As soft protons were not considered a risk to spacecraft health before launch, the only on-board radiation monitoring system is the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) which was included on Chandra with the primary purpose of monitoring energetic solar particle events. Further damage to the ACIS detector has been successfully mitigated through a combination of careful mission planning, autonomous on-board radiation protection, and manual intervention based upon real-time monitoring of the soft-proton environment. The AE-8 and AP-8 trapped radiation models and Chandra Radiation Models are used to schedule science operations in regions of low proton flux. EPHIN has been used as the primary autonomous in-situ radiation trigger; but, it is not sensitive to the soft protons that damage the front-illuminated CCDs. Monitoring of near-real-time space weather data sources provides critical information on the proton environment outside the Earth's magnetosphere due to solar proton events and other phenomena. The operations team uses data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to provide near-real-time monitoring of the proton environment; however, these data do not give a representative measure of the soft-proton (less than 1 MeV) flux in Chandra s high elliptical orbit. The only source of relevant measurements of sub-MeV protons is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite at L1, with real-time data provided by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. This presentation will discuss radiation mitigation against proton damage, including models and real-time data sources used to protect the ACIS detector system.

O'Dell, Stephen L.↗

Real Time Space Weather Support for Chandra X-Ray Observatory Operations

NASA launched the Chandra X-ray Observatory in July 1999. Soon after first light in August 1999, however, degradation in the energy resolution and charge transfer efficiency of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) x-ray detectors was observed. The source of the degradation was quickly identified as radiation damage in the charge-transfer channel of the front-illuminated CCDs, by weakly penetrating ( soft , 100 500 keV) protons as Chandra passed through the Earth s radiation belts and ring currents. As soft protons were not considered a risk to spacecraft health before launch, the only on-board radiation monitoring system is the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) which was included on Chandra with the primary purpose of monitoring energetic solar particle events. Further damage to the ACIS detector has been successfully mitigated through a combination of careful mission planning, autonomous on-board radiation protection, and manual intervention based upon real-time monitoring of the soft-proton environment. The AE-8 and AP-8 trapped radiation models and Chandra Radiation Models are used to schedule science operations in regions of low proton flux. EPHIN has been used as the primary autonomous in-situ radiation trigger; but, it is not sensitive to the soft protons that damage the front-illuminated CCDs. Monitoring of near-real-time space weather data sources provides critical information on the proton environment outside the Earth s magnetosphere due to solar proton events and other phenomena. The operations team uses data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to provide near-real-time monitoring of the proton environment; however, these data do not give a representative measure of the soft-proton (< 1 MeV) flux in Chandra s high elliptical orbit. The only source of relevant measurements of sub-MeV protons is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite at L1, with real-time data provided by NOAA s Space Weather Prediction Center. This presentation describes the radiation mitigation strategies to minimize the proton damage in the ACIS CCD detectors and the importance of real-time data sources that are used to protect the ACIS detector system from space weather events.

O'Dell, Stephen L.↗

High Altitude Radiations Relevant to the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)

The Langley Research Center (LaRC) performed atmospheric radiation studies under the SST development program in which important ionizing radiation components were measured and extended by calculations to develop the existing atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) model. In that program the measured neutron spectrum was limited to less than 10 MeV by the available 1960-1970 instrumentation. Extension of the neutron spectrum to high energies was made using the LaRC PROPER-3C monte carlo code. It was found that the atmospheric neutrons contributed about half of the dose equivalent and approximately half of the neutron contribution was from high energy neutrons above 10 MeV. Furthermore, monte carlo calculations of solar particle events showed that potential exposures as large as 10-100 mSv/hr may occur on important high latitude routes but acceptable levels of exposure could be obtained if timely descent to subsonic altitudes could be made. The principal concern was for pregnant occupants onboard the aircraft. As a result of these studies the FAA Advisory Committee on the Radiobiological Aspects of the SST recommended: 1. Crew members will have to be informed of their exposure levels 2. Maximum exposures on any flight to be limited to 5 mSv 3. Airborne radiation detection devices for total exposure and exposure rates 4. Satellite monitoring system to provide SST aircraft real-time information on atmospheric radiation levels for exposure mitigation 5. A solar forecasting system to warn flight operations of an impending solar event for flight scheduling and alert status. These recommendations are a reasonable starting point to requirements for the HSCT with some modification reflecting new standards of protection as a result of changing risk coefficients.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Orbit selection and its impact on radiation warning architecture for a human mission to Mars

With the recent announcement of the discovery of the possibility of life on Mars, there is renewed interest in Mars missions, perhaps eventually in human missions. Astronauts on such missions are at risk to occasional periods of enhanced high energy particle flux from the sun known as Solar Particle Events. These events can pose a substantial risk to the health of the astronauts and to the on-board electronics. Effective forecast and warning of these events could provide time to take steps to minimize the risk (retreating to a safe haven, shutting down sensitive equipment, etc.) Providing that forecast capability, will require additional monitoring capability. The extent of this architecture is sensitive to the orbit selected for the transfer to and from Mars. This paper looks at the major classes of Mars missions (Conjunction and Opposition) and sub-categories of these classes and draws conclusions on the number of monitoring satellites needed for each, with a goal to reducing total system cost through optimum orbit selection.

Non-NASA Center↗

Comparison of Organ Dosimetry for Astronaut Phantoms: Earth-Based vs. Microgravity-Based Anthropometry and Body Positioning

The purpose of this study is to use NASA radiation transport codes to compare astronaut organ dose equivalents resulting from solar particle events (SPE), geomagnetically trapped protons, and free-space galactic cosmic rays (GCR) using phantom models representing Earth-based and microgravity-based anthropometry and positioning. Methods: The Univer sity of Florida hybrid adult phantoms were scaled to represent male and female astronauts with 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile heights and weights as measured on Earth. Another set of scaled phantoms, incorporating microgravity-induced changes, such as spinal lengthening, leg volume loss, and the assumption of the neutral body position, was also created. A ray-tracer was created and used to generate body self-shielding distributions for dose points within a voxelized phantom under isotropic irradiation conditions, which closely approximates the free-space radiation environment. Simplified external shielding consisting of an aluminum spherical shell was used to consider the influence of a spacesuit or shielding of a hull. These distributions were combined with depth dose distributions generated from the NASA radiation transport codes BRYNTRN (SPE and trapped protons) and HZETRN (GCR) to yield dose equivalent. Many points were sampled per organ. Results: The organ dos e equivalent rates were on the order of 1.5-2.5 mSv per day for GCR (1977 solar minimum) and 0.4-0.8 mSv per day for trapped proton irradiation with shielding of 2 g cm-2 aluminum equivalent. The organ dose equivalents for SPE irradiation varied considerably, with the skin and eye lens having the highest organ dose equivalents and deep-seated organs, such as the bladder, liver, and stomach having the lowest. Conclus ions: The greatest differences between the Earth-based and microgravity-based phantoms are observed for smaller ray thicknesses, since the most drastic changes involved limb repositioning and not overall phantom size. Improved self-shielding models reduce the overall uncertainty in organ dosimetry for mission-risk projections and assessments for astronauts

VanBaalen, Mary↗

HUMEX, a study on the survivability and adaptation of humans to long-duration exploratory missions, part I: lunar missions

The European Space Agency has recently initiated a study of the human responses, limits and needs with regard to the stress environments of interplanetary and planetary missions. Emphasis has been laid on human health and performance care as well as advanced life support developments including bioregenerative life support systems and environmental monitoring. The overall study goals were as follows: (i) to define reference scenarios for a European participation in human exploration and to estimate their influence on the life sciences and life support requirements; (ii) for selected mission scenarios, to critically assess the limiting factors for human health, wellbeing, and performance and to recommend relevant countermeasures; (iii) for selected mission scenarios, to critically assess the potential of advanced life support developments and to propose a European strategy including terrestrial applications; (iv) to critically assess the feasibility of existing facilities and technologies on ground and in space as testbeds in preparation for human exploratory missions and to develop a test plan for ground and space campaigns; (v) to develop a roadmap for a future European strategy towards human exploratory missions, including preparatory activities and terrestrial applications and benefits. This paper covers the part of the HUMEX study dealing with lunar missions. A lunar base at the south pole where long-time sunlight and potential water ice deposits could be assumed was selected as the Moon reference scenario. The impact on human health, performance and well being has been investigated from the view point of the effects of microgravity (during space travel), reduced gravity (on the Moon) and abrupt gravity changes (during launch and landing), of the effects of cosmic radiation including solar particle events, of psychological issues as well as general health care. Countermeasures as well as necessary research using ground-based test beds and/or the International Space Station have been defined. Likewise advanced life support systems with a high degree of autonomy and regenerative capacity and synergy effects were considered where bioregenerative life support systems and biodiagnostic systems become essential. Finally, a European strategy leading to a potential European participation in future human exploratory missions has been recommended. c2003 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moon↗

Comparisons of Integrated Radiation Transport Models with Microdosimetry Data in Spaceflight

Astronauts are exposed to galactic cosmic rays (GCR), trapped protons, and possible solar particle events (SPE) during spaceflight. For such complicated mixtures of radiation types and kinetic energies, tissue equivalent proportional counters (TEPC's) represent a simple time-dependent approach for radiation monitoring. Of interest in radiation protection is the average quality factor of a radiation field defined as a function of linear energy transfer, LET, Q(sub ave)(LET). However TEPC's measure the average quality factors as a function of lineal energy (y), Q(sub ave)(y) defined as the average energy deposition in a volume divided by the average chord length of the volume. Lineal energy, y deviates from LET due to energy straggling, delta-ray escape or entry, and nuclear fragments produced in the detector. Using integrated space radiation models that includes the transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN, the quantum nuclear interaction model, QMSFRG, and results from Monte-Carlo track simulations of TEPC's response to ions, we consider comparisons of model calculations to TEPC results from NASA missions in low Earth orbit and make predictions for lunar and Mars missions. Good agreement between the model and measured spectra from past NASA missions is found. A finding of this work is that TEPC's values for trapped or solar protons of Q(sub ave)(y) range from 1.9-2.5, overestimating Q(sub ave)(LET), which ranges from 1.4-1.6 with both quantities increasing with shielding depth due to nuclear secondaries Comparisons for the complete GCR spectra show that Q(sub ave)(LET) for GCR is approximately 3.5-4.5, while TEPC's measure 2.9-3.4 for Q(sub ave)(y) with the GCR values decreasing with depth as heavy ions are absorbed in shielding material. Our results support the use of TEPC's for space radiation environmental monitoring when computational analysis is used for proper data interpretation.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Neutron environments on the Martian surface

Radiation is a primary concern in the planning of a manned mission to Mars. Recent studies using NASA Langley Research Center's HZETRN space radiation transport code show that the low energy neutron fluence on the Martian surface is larger than previously expected. The upper atmosphere of Mars is exposed to a background radiation field made up of a large number of protons during a solar particle event and mixture of light and heavy ions caused by galactic cosmic rays at other times. In either case, these charged ions interact with the carbon and oxygen atoms of the Martian atmosphere through ionization and nuclear collisions producing secondary ions and neutrons which then interact with the atmospheric atoms in a similar manner. In the past, only these downward moving particles have been counted in evaluating the neutron energy spectrum on the surface. Recent enhancements in the HZETRN code allow for the additional evaluation of those neutrons created within the Martian regolith through the same types of nuclear reactions, which rise to the surface. New calculations using this improved HZETRN code show that these upward moving neutrons contribute significantly to the overall neutron spectrum for energies less than 10 MeV.

NASA Center LaRC↗

Polyvinyl Alcohol and Medium Density Polyethylene Composite Materials for Neutron Radiation Shielding

Manned spacecraft venturing beyond the Earth’s Van Allen Belts will be subjected to high levels of radiation from both energetic particles emanating from the sun and from galactic atomic events, such as supernovae. The metal shell of a spacecraft offers some protection from gamma radiation and high energy particles originating from both the sun and cosmic sources. The interaction of these high energy particles and radiation with the spacecraft hull create secondary radiation and neutrons, additional hazards for astronauts and electronic systems. Shielding of neutrons is the most challenging of the high energy radiation, since neutrons have zero charge and are least affected by electrical fields, magnetic fields, and atomic forces. Previous studies showed that polyethylene is an effective neutron shielding material, due to its high hydrogen content. High energy neutrons are slowed to thermal neutrons through multiple collisions with the hydrogen atoms, increasing the effectiveness of neutron capture by boron-10 atoms. This study discusses the fabrication and testing of polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH) samples as a neutron shielding material, with comparison to medium density polyethylene (MDPE) composite samples to be used for neutron shielding for spacecraft. PVOH, an aqueous polymer, was chosen for hydrogen content and for enabling the use of organic reinforcement such as cellulose for secondary structural composites. OLTARIS (On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space) was used for radiation shielding simulation and compared with experimental data. Modeling indicates that the most effective shielding from radiation was in an aluminum layer backed by a polymer layer, either MDPE or PVOH. Cross-linked PVOH was also included in the OLTARIS modeling. All 3 polymer cases showed shielding improvement over aluminum alone, with similar dose equivalent reduction for galactic cosmic radiation(GCR)and for radiation from a solar particle event (SPE). Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy was used to confirm the cross-linking in the PVOH sample and to determine the uniformity through the thickness. PVOH, cross-linked PVOH, and MDPE samples were tested for neutron shielding effectiveness using a 1 curie Americium-Beryllium neutron source. Test results indicated the most shielding in the cross-linked PVOH, followed by the pristine PVOH, and MDPE. Neutron testing suggests that polyvinyl alcohol is a good alternative to polyethylene for neutron shielding. The neutron shielding materials, PVOH and cross-linked PVOH developed under this research will enable the safe operation of spacecraft beyond the Earth’s protective Van Allen Radiation Belts. It will be crucial for NASA’s manned missions to the Moon or Mars to protect the health of astronauts and equipment from the harmful effects of excessive radiation.

neutron, shielding, radiation, polyvinyl alcohol, ↗

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗

Comparison of Integrated Radiation Transport Models with TEPC Measurements for the Average Quality Factors in Spaceflights

The purpose of this work is to test our theoretical model for the interpretation of radiation data measured in space. During the space missions astronauts are exposed to the complex field of radiation type and kinetic energies from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), trapped protons, and sometimes solar particle events (SPEs). The tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) is a simple time-dependent approach for radiation monitoring for astronauts on board the International Space Station. Another and a newer approach to Microdosimetry is the use of silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology launched on the MidSTAR-1 mission in low Earth orbit (LEO). In the radiation protection practice, the average quality factor of a radiation field is defined as a function of linear energy transfer (LET), Q(sub ave)(LET). However, TEPC measures the average quality factor as a function of the lineal energy y, Q(sub ave)(y), defined as the average energy deposition in a volume divided by the average chord length of the volume. Lineal energy, y, deviates from LET due to energy straggling, delta-ray escape or entry, and nuclear fragments produced in the detector volume. Monte Carlo track structure simulation was employed to obtain the response of a TEPC irradiated with charged particle for an equivalent site diameter of 1 micron of wall-less counter. The calculated data of the energy absorption in the wall-less counter were compiled for various y values for several ion types at various discrete projectile energy levels. For the simulation of TEPC response from the mixed radiation environments inside a spacecraft, such as, Space Shuttle and International Space Station, the complete microdosimetric TEPC response, f( y, E, Z), were calculated with the Monte Carlo theoretical results by using the first order Lagrangian interpolation for a monovariate function at a given y value (y = 0.1 keV/micron 5000 keV/micron) at any projectile energy level (E = 0.01 MeV/u to 50,000 MeV/u) of each specific radiation type (Z = 1 to 28). Because the anomalous response has been observed at large event sizes in the experiment due to the escape of energy out of sensitive volume by delta-rays and the entry of delta-rays from the high-density wall into the low-density gas-volume cavity, Monte Carlo simulation was also made for the response of a walled-TEPC with wall thickness 2 mm and density 1 g/cm(exp 3). The radius of cavity was set to 6.35 mm and a gas density 7.874 x 10(exp -5) g/cm(exp 3). The response of the walled- and the wall-less counters were compared. The average quality factor Q(sub ave)(y) for trapped protons on STS-89 demonstrated the good agreement between the model calculations and flight TEPC data as shown. Using an integrated space radiation model (this includes the transport codes HZETRN and BRYNTRN, the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG) and the resultant response distribution functions of walled-TEPC from Monte-Carlo track simulations, we compared model calculations with walled-TEPC measurements from NASA missions in LEO and made predictions for the lunar and the Mars missions. The Q(sub ave)(y) values for the trapped or the solar protons ranged from 1.9-2.5. This over-estimates the Qave(LET) values which ranged from 1.4-1.6. Both quantities increase with shield thickness due to nuclear fragmentation. The Q(sub ave)(LET) for the complete GCR spectra was found to be 3.5-4.5, while flight TEPCs measured 2.9-3.4 for Q(sub ave)(y). The GCR values are decreasing with the shield thickness. Our analysis for a proper interpretation of data supports the use of TEPCs for monitoring space radiation environment.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Energetic particles from the sun.

Solar cosmic rays, discussing flare association, solar particle acceleration, recurrence and low energy solar particle events

Fichtel, C. E.↗