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At least 379 records · Page 21

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

terrain↗

Topological Relationship–Based Flow Direction Modeling: Mesh–Independent River Networks Representation

River networks are important features in surface hydrology. However, accurately representing river networks in spatially distributed hydrologic and Earth system models is often sensitive to the model's spatial resolution. Specifically, river networks are often misrepresented because of the mismatch between the model's spatial resolution and river network details, resulting in significant uncertainty in the projected flow direction. In this study, we developed a topological relationship-based river network representation method for spatially distributed hydrologic models. This novel method uses (a) graph theory algorithms to simplify real-world vector-based river networks and assist in mesh generation; and (b) a topological relationship-based method to reconstruct conceptual river networks. The main advantages of our method are that (a) it combines the strengths of vector-based and DEM raster-based river network extraction methods; and (b) it is mesh-independent and can be applied to both structured and unstructured meshes. This method paves a path for advanced terrain analysis and hydrologic modeling across different scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3D Nanocrystallography and the Imperfect Molecular Lattice

Crystallographic analysis relies on the scattering of quanta from arrays of atoms that populate a repeating lattice. While large crystals built of lattices that appear ideal are sought after by crystallographers, imperfections are the norm for molecular crystals. Additionally, advanced X-ray and electron diffraction techniques, used for crystallography, have opened the possibility of interrogating micro- and nanoscale crystals, with edges only millions or even thousands of molecules long. These crystals exist in a size regime that approximates the lower bounds for traditional models of crystal nonuniformity and imperfection. Accordingly, data generated by diffraction from both X-rays and electrons show increased complexity and are more challenging to conventionally model. New approaches in serial crystallography and spatially resolved electron diffraction mapping are changing this paradigm by better accounting for variability within and between crystals. The intersection of these methods presents an opportunity for a more comprehensive understanding of the structure and properties of nanocrystalline materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

iButton and Tinytag snow temperature measurements at Teller 27 and Kougarok 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021-2022

Snow temperature measurements were collected at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) and at the Kougarok Road Site at mile marker 64 (KG_MM64) on the Seward Peninsula. Data were collected from October 1, 2021 to August 16, 2022 using iButton Link DS1926-F5# Thermochron miniature temperature sensors (https://www.ibuttonlink.com/products/ds1921g) and Tinytag TGP-4017 internal sensors (https://www.micronmeters.com/product/tgp-4017-internal-sensor-40-to-85-c-40-f-to-185-f) deployed across the Kougarok and Teller sites. These sensors are a cost-efficient way to collect snowpack temperatures at a higher spatial resolution than what is normally achieved. iButton data were collected every 4 hours beginning on October 1, 2021. Tinytag data collection began between October 9 and October 12, 2021 depending on sensor installation date. Tinytag data were collected every 30 minutes. In total, data were collected from 236 iButtons and 30 Tinytags. This dataset contains four *.csv files of near-ground surface temperatures at various locations throughout each study site and four *.shp files of sensor locations. Data were collected throughout the snow cover season so that snowpack characteristics could be derived using the temperature data. Sensors were placed both inside and outside of vegetation to better capture the spatial variability of snow properties across each domain. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of atmospherically induced random wave fronts on diffraction imagery - A computer simulation model for testing image reconstruction algorithms

This paper is devoted to the development of a two-dimensional computer-simulation model that is based on the rigid constraints of optical diffraction theory with careful attention paid to the generation of sample realizations of Gaussian-distributed, spatially random, isotropic wave fronts that have zero-mean and prescribed-covariance functions. Given a sample realization of the wave front, the corresponding centered point-spread function and optical-transfer function are evaluated. A detailed study is made of the statistics of random wave-front tilt, point-spread function, modulus squared of transfer function, and phase of transfer function.

Barakat, Richard↗

On the Computation of Sound by Large-Eddy Simulations

The effect of the small scales on the source term in Lighthill's acoustic analogy is investigated, with the objective of determining the accuracy of large-eddy simulations when applied to studies of flow-generated sound. The distribution of the turbulent quadrupole is predicted accurately, if models that take into account the trace of the SGS stresses are used. Its spatial distribution is also correct, indicating that the low-wave-number (or frequency) part of the sound spectrum can be predicted well by LES. Filtering, however, removes the small-scale fluctuations that contribute significantly to the higher derivatives in space and time of Lighthill's stress tensor T(sub ij). The rms fluctuations of the filtered derivatives are substantially lower than those of the unfiltered quantities. The small scales, however, are not strongly correlated, and are not expected to contribute significantly to the far-field sound; separate modeling of the subgrid-scale density fluctuations might, however, be required in some configurations.

Piomelli, Ugo↗

Impact of the Earthquake Rupture on Ground-Motion Variability of the 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 Amatrice, Italy, Earthquake

Here, the devastating 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 earthquake that struck Amatrice, Italy, marked the beginning of a prolonged seismic sequence dominated by three subsequent M w ≥6.0 events in the central Apennines region. The earthquake destroyed Amatrice’s historic center, claiming the lives of 299 individuals and causing widespread damage in the neighboring villages. The severity of the ground shaking, with a recorded maximum acceleration of 850 cm/s 2 on the east–west component at the Amatrice station, was far greater than the predicted acceleration based on the Italian ground-motion model (GMM). As pointed out by several investigations, the observed ground-motion amplitude and its spatial variability during the earthquake can be linked to specific rupture characteristics, including slip distribution and rupture directivity effects revealed by the observed data (Tinti et al., 2016; Pischiutta et al., 2021). In this study, we conducted physics-based 3D numerical simulations of ground motion for the Amatrice earthquake for frequencies up to 3 Hz. We employed a series of kinematic rupture models and a well-constrained local 3D velocity model incorporating surface topography. The kinematic rupture realizations were generated using multiscale hybrid and fully stochastic models, following the technique proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2016). We focused on assessing the sensitivity of near-fault ground-motion amplitudes to earthquake rupture characteristics, in particular, the spatial slip pattern. To evaluate the quality of our simulations, we employed goodness-of-fit measurements performed in comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions. The simulated ground motions compare well with the recorded data and predictions from GMMs for Italy, ITA18 (Lanzano et al., 2019). However, we found that the simulated interevent ground-motion variability (randomness in the source process) of peak ground velocity, σ (PGV) is higher than the constant σ (PGV) predicted by conventional GMMs. Our simulations using several rupture scenarios demonstrate that the near-fault ground-motion amplification pattern is directly related to the slip distribution pattern.

3D Ground Motions Simulations↗

Transients following the loss of detonation confinement

We present a theory for the evolution of a one-dimensional, steady-state detonation reaction zone to a two-dimensional reaction zone, when the explosive experiences a sudden loss of side-on confinement as a boundary of the explosive is impulsively withdrawn. Our focus is on condensed-phase explosives, which we describe as having a constant adiabatic gamma equation of state and an irreversible, state-independent reaction rate. We consider two detonation models: (i) the instantaneous reaction heat release Chapman–Jouguet (CJ)-limit and (ii) the spatially resolved reaction heat-release Zel’dovich–von Neumann–Döring (ZND) model, in the limit where only a small fraction of the energy release is resolved (the SRHR-limit). Two competing rarefaction waves are generated by this loss of confinement: (i) a smooth wave coming off the full length of the withdrawn boundary and (ii) a singular fan spreading out from the point where the detonation shock and the withdrawn boundary meet. For the CJ-limit, in all cases the singular rarefaction fan eventually dominates the competition to control the steady-state behaviour. For the SRHR-limit, the spatially resolved heat release moderates this competition. When the withdrawal speed is fast, the rarefaction fan dominates; when the withdrawal speed is slower, the smooth rarefaction eventually dominates, although the flow features a fan at early times. By examining the mathematical properties of the steady two-dimensional fan-based solution, we set down a mechanism for this transition in behaviours.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Simulation of a Periodic Jet in a Crossflow with a RANS Solver Using an Unstructured Grid

A second-order unstructured-grid code, developed and used primarily for steady aerodynamic simulations, is applied to the synthetic jet in a cross flow. The code, FUN3D, is a vertex-centered finite-volume method originally developed by Anderson[1, 2], and is currently supported by members of the Fast Adaptive Aerospace Tools team at NASA Langley. Used primarily for design[3] and analysis[4] of steady aerodynamic configurations, FUN3D incorporates a discrete adjoint capability, and supports parallel computations using MPI. A detailed description of the FUN3D code can be found in the references given above. The code is under continuous development and contains a variety of flux splitting algorithms for the inviscid terms, two methods for computing gradients, several turbulence models, and several solution methodologies; all in varying states of development. Only the most robust and reliable components, based on experiences with steady aerodynamic simulations, were employed in this work. As applied in this work, FUN3D solves the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the one equation turbulence model of Spalart and Allmaras[5]. The spatial discretization is formed on unstructured meshes using a vertex-centered approach. The inviscid terms are evaluated by a flux-difference splitting formulation using least-squares reconstruction and Roe-type approximate Riemann fluxes. Green-Gauss gradient evaluations are used for viscous and turbulence modeling terms. The discrete spatial operator is combined with a backward time operator which is then solved iteratively using point or line Gauss-Seidel and local time stepping in a pseudo time. For steady flows, the physical time step is set to infinity and the pseudo time step is ramped up with the iteration count. A second-order backward in time operator is used for time accurate flows with 20 to 50 steps in the pseudo time applied at each physical time step. For this effort, FUN3D was modified to support spatially varying boundary and initial conditions, and unsteady boundary conditions. Also, a specialized in/out flow boundary condition was implemented to model the action of the diaphragm. This boundary condition is described below in more detail. The grids were generated using the internally developed codes GridEX[6] for meshing the surfaces and inviscid regions of the domain, and for CAD access; and MesherX[7] for meshing the viscous regions. Grid spacing in on the surfaces and in the inviscid regions are indirectly controlled by specifying sources. The viscous layers are generated using an advancing layer technique. MeshersX allows the user to control the spatial variation of the first step off the surface, growth rates, and the termination criterion by providing small problem dependent subroutines.

Atkins, H. L.↗

The detection of intermediate size magnetic anomalies in Cosmos-49 and OGO-2, 4, and 6 data

Benkova, Dolginov, and Simonenko have recently reported the presence of intermediate size magnetic anomalies in the data from COSMOS-49 and hypothesized a crustal and/or upper mantle origin. The spherical harmonic models of the internal potential function were examined, based on the OGO-2, 4, and 6 data (POGO (10/68) and later models), and verified the locations and amplitudes of those anomalies whose wavelengths approximate 4000 km. The comparison was made by subtracting a field model developed with a truncated series of n* = 9 from one computed with n* = 11 and generating a residual map equivalent to the COSMOS-49 data. The patterns of delta F so computed from POGO were then compared with the IZMIRAN maps and also were analyzed statistically, in both the spatial and frequency domains, using residuals computed from the raw COSMOS-49 data with the n* = 9 COSMOS-49 field model as reference. The two sets of data were thus derived from completely independent sets of observations and field references. The two patterns are shown to agree very well over the whole earth surface up to the 50 deg latitude limit of COSMOS-49.

Regan, R. D.↗

A case study of using x-ray Thomson scattering to diagnose the in-flight plasma conditions of DT cryogenic implosions

The design of inertial confinement fusion ignition targets requires radiation-hydrodynamics simulations with accurate models of the fundamental material properties (i.e., equation of state, opacity, and conductivity). Validation of these models is required via experimentation. A feasibility study of using spatially integrated, spectrally resolved, x-ray Thomson scattering measurements to diagnose the temperature, density, and ionization of the compressed DT shell of a cryogenic DT implosion at two-thirds convergence was conducted. Synthetic scattering spectra were generated using 1D implosion simulations from the LILAC code that were post processed with the x-ray scattering model, which is incorporated within SPECT3D. Analysis of two extreme adiabat capsule conditions showed that the plasma conditions for both compressed DT shells could be resolved.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Using Enhanced Grace Water Storage Data to Improve Drought Detection by the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors

NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites measure time variations of the Earth's gravity field enabling reliable detection of spatio-temporal variations in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), including groundwater. The U.S. and North American Drought Monitors rely heavily on precipitation indices and do not currently incorporate systematic observations of deep soil moisture and groundwater storage conditions. Thus GRACE has great potential to improve the Drought Monitors by filling this observational gap. GRACE TWS data were assimilating into the Catchment Land Surface Model using an ensemble Kalman smoother enabling spatial and temporal downscaling and vertical decomposition into soil moisture and groundwater components. The Drought Monitors combine several short- and long-term drought indicators expressed in percentiles as a reference to their historical frequency of occurrence. To be consistent, we generated a climatology of estimated soil moisture and ground water based on a 60-year Catchment model simulation, which was used to convert seven years of GRACE assimilated fields into drought indicator percentiles. At this stage we provide a preliminary evaluation of the GRACE assimilated moisture and indicator fields.

Houborg, Rasmus↗

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrologic Model Data for the East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed Simulated with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS): Streamflow and Network Expansion–Contraction Dynamics

This dataset supports hydrologic modeling and stream network expansion–contraction analysis for the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) Watershed in Tennessee. It includes a Jupyter notebook for model setup, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to evaluate model performance and investigate stream dynamics under varying hydrologic conditions. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations using a stream-aligned mesh. Outputs include high-resolution time series of streamflow, active network length, water table depth, and related hydrologic variables. Also included are spatially explicit stream persistency indices and classifications of reaches as perennial or non-perennial. These data facilitate reproducibility and support further research on stream intermittency and variability in network extent.The model data archive is organized in following directories:1) model_setup_inputsContains the Watershed Workflow Jupyter notebooks (accessed through any open source code editor), selected input datasets, and resulting ATS input files, including XML files (access through any open source code editor), computational mesh (.exo files can be viewed using Paraview), and meteorological forcing files (.h5 files can be accessed through h5py python package and HDFView open source software). 2) model_outputsIncludes ATS simulation outputs relevant to this study. Time series of spatially integrated or averaged variables (e.g., streamflow, water table depth) are provided as CSV files. Select spatial fields (e.g., ponded depth and water table depth) are saved as pickled Python objects to reduce file size, and can be accessed through pickle package in Python. Key geometry objects from Watershed Workflow—such as the surface mesh and river tree—are also included to support analysis of streamflow persistency and expansion–contraction dynamics. These files can also be accessed through Watershed Workflow Python package.3) model_evaluationProvides observed streamflow time series and field survey-based flow regime classifications used to evaluate model performance. Jupyter notebooks for processing ATS outputs and comparing model predictions with observations to build confidence in the model prior to scientific analysis are also included.4) Q_L_relationshipsContains workflows for generating time series of discharge, active network length, and related hydrologic variables used in the stream network expansion–contraction analysis. Includes routines for delineating baseflow-dominated periods. For each catchment, notebooks and processed data (as pickled DataFrames accessed through Pandas Python package) are provided. 5) figure_scriptsProvides the Jupyter notebooks used to generate the figures presented in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heating of coronal plasma by anomalous current dissipation

It is shown that there exist heating mechanisms which connect the observed radiative properties of the inner corona in a simple way to the underlying solar magnetic field. The mechanisms considered involve the generation and consequent dissipation of coronal currents. It is argued that the spatially and temporally inhomogeneous nature of the erupting solar magnetic field is an essential element of coronal heating. Unlike heating theories conceived in the context of the 'homogeneous' corona, this class of current heating models incorporates the observed stochastic coronal structuring at the onset, and does not view it as a complication of an otherwise straightforward model. Attention is given to the generation of coronal currents, the flux-tube emergence, the gradual growth and decay of active regions, the energetics of current dissipation, current sheath geometry and heat transport, and anomalous current dissipation.

Rosner, R.↗

A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method

Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use.

Yu, Zhuoran↗

Model data for infrastructure-aware simulation of compound flooding at Alligator Bayou Watershed, southeast Texas

This dataset supports infrastructure-aware hydrologic modeling and flood scenario analysis for the Alligator Bayou Watershed, a highly managed urban watershed in Southeast Texas. It includes Jupyter notebooks for figure reproduction, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to quantify the influence of engineered stormwater infrastructure on flood behavior across multiple spatial scales. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations on a channel-aligned mesh with explicit representations of pump stations, gate structures, detention basins, and impervious surfaces. Outputs include time series of gate and pump flows, stage observations, and water balance components, as well as spatially explicit fields of peak ponded depth and flood duration across multiple infrastructure scenarios spanning a single-location detention basin expansion, distributed drainage limitations, and compound coastal flooding. These data facilitate full reproducibility of the manuscript figures and support further research on urban flood dynamics and the role of stormwater infrastructure in shaping watershed-scale flood response.

EARTH SCIENCE > OCEANS > COASTAL PROCESSES↗

Monsoon Extremes: Impacts, Metrics, and Synoptic-Scale Drivers

This project was led by UC Berkeley with a subcontract to UC Davis and collaborative funding at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). It produced new understanding of transient atmospheric disturbances in monsoon regions, the precipitation extremes they produce, and the sensitivity of precipitation and monsoon winds to fine-scale orography (i.e., the narrow mountain ranges that are difficult to represent in conventional Earth system models). Fundamental research undertaken as part of this project led to discovery of new mechanisms that control the generation of extreme weather events and that govern the spatial patterns of intense precipitation in monsoon climates—including the North American monsoon. These research accomplishments are summarized below and documented in a series of 23 publications, 20 of which were led by project personnel (the others were collaborative work led by staff of other projects). One of the publications produced by this project was in Nature, where it was selected for the main cover image, and another was in PNAS. The project also produced two datasets and a tracking algorithm, both of which are publicly available and listed below. The project trained three Ph.D. students and four postdoctoral scientists, the vast majority of whom have progressed to more advanced positions in their scientific careers. Although the university funding for this project ended in 2022, the LBNL component of the project proceeded for almost one year longer; this report is being provided after completion of all components of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗