SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Standard deviation modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1990

Numerical experiments in geomagnetic modeling

Numerical tests were made, using least squares fitting of a spherical harmonic model, to a selection of Magsat data to determine the practical limits of this technique with modern computers. The resulting (M102189) model, whose coefficients were adjusted up to n = 50, was compared with M07AV6, a previous model which used least squares (on vector data) for coefficients up to n = 29, and Gauss-Legendre quadrature (on Z residuals) to adjust the coefficients up to n = 63. For the new least squares adjustment to n = 50 a condition number of 115 was obtained for the solution matrix, with a resulting precision of 11 significant figures. The M102189 model shows a lower and more Gaussian residual distribution than did M07AV6, though the Gaussian envelope fits to the residual distributions, even for the scalar field, gives "standard deviations' never lower than 6 nT, a factor of three higher than the estimated Magsat observational errors. Ionospheric currents are noted to have a significant effect on the coefficients of the internal potential functions.

Cain, Joseph C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Soil moisture variability within remote sensing pixels

The effects of topography and the level of soil moisture on the variability of soil moisture within remote sensing pixels were assessed during the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) during 1987 and 1989. Soil moisture data from flat, sloped, and valley-shaped pixels were obtained over a wide range of moisture conditions. Relative elevation data were obtained for each study area to create digital elevation models with which to quantify topographic variability. Within-pixel soil moisture variability was shown to increase with increased topographic heterogeneity. The flat pixel had significantly lower standard deviations and fewer outlier points than the slope and valley pixels. Most pixel means had a positive skewness, indicating that most pixels will have areas of markedly higher than average soil moisture.

Charpentier, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Non-Gaussian Analysis of Turbulent Boundary Layer Fluctuating Pressure on Aircraft Skin Panels

The purpose of the study is to investigate the probability density function (PDF) of turbulent boundary layer fluctuating pressures measured on the outer sidewall of a supersonic transport aircraft and to approximate these PDFs by analytical models. Experimental flight results show that the fluctuating pressure PDFs differ from the Gaussian distribution even for standard smooth surface conditions. The PDF tails are wider and longer than those of the Gaussian model. For pressure fluctuations in front of forward-facing step discontinuities, deviations from the Gaussian model are more significant and the PDFs become asymmetrical. There is a certain spatial pattern of the skewness and kurtosis behavior depending on the distance upstream from the step. All characteristics related to non-Gaussian behavior are highly dependent upon the distance from the step and the step height, less dependent on aircraft speed, and not dependent on the fuselage location. A Hermite polynomial transform model and a piecewise-Gaussian model fit the flight data well both for the smooth and stepped conditions. The piecewise-Gaussian approximation can be additionally regarded for convenience in usage after the model is constructed.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Application of STARFLEET Velocimetry in the NASA Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel

Selective two-photon absorptive resonance femtosecond laser electronic excitation tagging (STARFLEET) velocimetry is demonstrated for the first time in a NASA Langley wind tunnel with high repetition-rate and single-shot imaging. Experiments performed in the 0.3-meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel (TCT) allowed for testing at 300 K over a range of pressures (124 to 517 kPa) and Mach numbers (0.2-0.8) for freestream conditions and flow behind a cylindrical model. Measurement precision and accuracy are determined for the current set of experiments, as are signal intensity and lifetime. Precisions of 3-5 m/s (based on one standard deviation) were typical in the experiment; precisions better than 2% of the mean velocity were obtained for some of the highest velocity conditions. Agreement within a mean error of 3 m/s between STARFLEET freestream velocity measurements and facility DAS readings is demonstrated. STARFLEET is also shown to return spatially-resolved velocity profiles, though some binning of the signal is required.

STARFLEET↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Process-Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year−1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year−1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year−1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year−1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (−0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year−1). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo↗

NASA NTRS1986

The reaction H + C4H2 - Absolute rate constant measurement and implication for atmospheric modeling of Titan

The absolute rate constant for the reaction H + C4H2 has been measured over the temperature (T) interval 210-423 K, using the technique of flash photolysis-resonance fluorescence. At each of the five temperatures employed, the results were independent of variations in C4H2 concentration, total pressure of Ar or N2, and flash intensity (i.e., the initial H concentration). The rate constant, k, was found to be equal to 1.39 x 10 to the -10th exp (-1184/T) cu cm/s, with an error of one standard deviation. The Arrhenius parameters at the high pressure limit determined here for the H + C4H2 reaction are consistent with those for the corresponding reactions of H with C2H2 and C3H4. Implications of the kinetic carbon chemistry results, particularly those at low temperature, are considered for models of the atmospheric carbon chemistry of Titan. The rate of this reaction, relative to that of the analogous, but slower, reaction of H + C2H2, appears to make H + C4H2 a very feasible reaction pathway for effective conversion of H atoms to molecular hydrogen in the stratosphere of Titan.

Nava, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Mars gravitational field estimation error

The error covariance matrices associated with a weighted least-squares differential correction process have been analyzed for accuracy in determining the gravitational coefficients through degree and order five in the Mars gravitational potential junction. The results are presented in terms of standard deviations for the assumed estimated parameters. The covariance matrices were calculated by assuming Doppler tracking data from a Mars orbiter, a priori statistics for the estimated parameters, and model error uncertainties for tracking-station locations, the Mars ephemeris, the astronomical unit, the Mars gravitational constant (G sub M), and the gravitational coefficients of degrees six and seven. Model errors were treated by using the concept of consider parameters.

Compton, H. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Outgoing long-wave radiation computed from HIRS2/MSU soundings

Fields of outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) have been computed using geophysical parameters retrieved from analysis of HIRS2/MSU sounding data as input to a modified version of the Wu-Kaplan radiation code used in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order general circulation model. Monthly mean results for 1979 agree with monthly mean OLR fields measured by the Nimbus 7 earth radiation budget (ERB) broadband narrow field of view instrument within standard deviations of 6.3 W/sq m but with a global mean bias of 8.0 W/sq m. Results are shown for July 1979. The areas of disagreement between high-resolution infrared radiation sounder OLR and ERB OLR are small but spatially coherent with patterns which may be related to sampling differences. The difference patterns are much less extensive than those between OLR derived from advanced very high resolution radiometer 11-micron observations and ERB OLR.

Wu, Man-Li C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Merged interaction regions and large-scale magnetic field fluctuations during 1991: Voyager 2 observations

This paper analyzes Voyager 2 observations of the magnetic field between 33.6 AU and 36.2 AU during 1991 when extraordinary events were observed on the Sun and in the heliosphere. The magnetic field strength signal B(t) has the unusual form of two large transient merged interaction regions (MIRs) on a fluctuating background. The two MIRs moved past the spacecraft in 32 days and 18 days, respectively. The mean field strength in each transient MIR was approx. equals 2.6 times the mean field during the remaining part of the year (0.11 nT). Each of the MIRs is related to a fast stream. The magnetic field is strong throughout each stream, suggesting that the strong fields are carried by the streams as well as produced by shock and stream compression. The fluctuations in B(t) during 1991 are not multifractal, and the MIRs cannot be approximated as multifractal clusters of intense magnetic fields. The distribution of the hour-averaged magnetic field strengths is approximately lognormal over 90% of its intermediate range, and it has an exponential tail for B greater than the average magnetic field strength. The elevation angles of B have a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 16 deg +/- 4 deg. The distributions of the azimuthal angles of B in the ranges 1 deg - 180 deg and 180 deg - 360 deg are approximately normal over a more limited range, and non-Gaussian tails associated with nearly radial magnetic fields; the standard deviations are approx. equal to 40 deg. Individual sectors are present throughout most of the interval, even in the MIRs, but there is no recurrent sector pattern. A model of the large-scale fluctuations in 1991 will have to include both determinaistic and statistical factors.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

System test approach for the SAX satellite

SAX satellite verification is based on a protoflight approach, in which only one system model is realized at flight standard level, taking into account the utilization of hardware already qualified for other space programs and the necessity to respect the schedule constraints for a scientific objective. In any case, this approach was tailored with some deviations in order to reduce risks inherent in such a choice. The protoflight approach was also pursued at subsystem/unit level in particular for those subsystems and units considered critical from the schedule point of view. Payload Instruments followed the same approach but complete spare units were developed to reduce the risks associated with such an approach. A description of the model philosophy is provided and then, at satellite level, the testing approach and rationale for each model is presented. Finally, a brief description of each test will be given, highlighting objectives, methodologies, and test configurations. Moreover, for the major tests, problems encountered and solutions applied in establishing a correct approach are described.

Giordano, Pietro↗

NASA NTRS1975

The effects of correlation on goodness of fit

Autocorrelated normal random variates were generated via computer and the effects of various levels of correlation on goodness of fit problems were studied. The results are useful in determining the distribution or estimating the parameters of populations that correlate observations such as wind speeds and temperature. The model used to generate the autocorrelated data is an autoregressive process of order 1. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square statistics are used in the analysis. It was observed in the simulation that high positive correlations tend to shift the sample mean away from the population mean and negative correlations tend to shift the sample mean towards the population mean. In many cases, it was observed that positive and negative correlations tend to decrease the standard deviation. However, since this did not occur in all cases, no definite conclusion can be made regarding the standard deviation. Since the autoregressive process is a linear transformation, it is not surprising that normality was preserved. However, a possible extension of this problem could be to generate non-normal data and observe how the distribution is affected by correlation. Another extension might utilize another model such as autoregressive of order k or a moving average process of order k.

Kitchens, L. J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Correlation of Heliostat Pointing Deviation With Wind

This work was carried out as part of the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) Field Deployment subtask with the aim to develop a reduced order model framework for correlating wind speed and pointing deviation of a heliostat facet. There are only sparse field measurements of heliostat pointing deviations and accompanying wind conditions published in the literature. Heliostat test standards, such as IEC 62862-4-3, propose a suite of tests including laser pointing repeatability at wind speeds below 4 m/s, and provide technical requirements for heliostat slope and tracking deviations in coarse average wind speed bins of 4 m/s, 6 m/s, and 8 m/s. In addressing the gap of the variation of heliostat pointing deviation with wind speed, field measurements of laser pointing on a grid target and wind conditions were analyzed in this study at the Third-Party Metrology Platform at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) Flatirons Campus. Horizontal pointing deviations were found to follow a logarithmic relationship with peak wind speed, whereas vertical pointing deviations follow an exponential relationship with peak wind speed. Both horizontal and vertical pointing deviations also follow a second order polynomial relationship, as expected from the proportionality of elastic loads and deformations with the square of wind speed. The results indicate that heliostat facet pointing deviations in the vertical direction increase at a faster rate than in the horizontal direction with increasing wind speed over the tested range, however these are dependent on the heliostat structural design. Next steps are recommended for additional field measurements to confirm a linear relationship of pointing deviation with applied moment on a heliostat facet, and to distinguish between gravity-induced and wind-induced pointing deviations at different elevation angles. The derived correlations in the preliminary analysis in this report serve as a case study for heliostat developers and plant operators to estimate the wind-induced pointing deviations and their variation with peak gust wind speed. Next steps in future work would recommend higher resolution and longer duration datasets for different elevation angles and wind directions to reduce uncertainties and variance of collected laser beam spot data and their correlations with bin-averaged wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Coronal Hard X-Ray Sources Revisited

This paper reports on the re-analysis of solar flares in which the hard X-rays (HXRs) come predominantly from the corona rather than from the more usual chromospheric footpoints. All of the 26 previously analyzed event time intervals, over 13 flares, are re-examined for consistency with a flare model in which electrons are accelerated near the top of a magnetic loop which has a sufficiently high density to stop most of the electrons by Coulomb collisions before they can reach the footpoints. Of particular importance in the previous analysis was the finding that the length of the coronal HXR source increased with energy in the 20–30 keV range. However, after allowing for the possibility that footpoint emission at the higher energies affects the inferred length of the coronal HXR source, and using analysis techniques that suppress the possible influence of such footpoint emission, we conclude that there is no longer evidence that the length of the HXR coronal sources increase with increasing energy. In fact, for the six flares and 12 time intervals that satisfied our selection criteria, the loop lengths decreased on average by 1.0 ± 0.2 arcsec between 20 and 30 keV, with a standard deviation of 3.5 arcsec. We find strong evidence that the peak of the coronal HXR source increases in altitude with increasing energy. For the thermal component of the emission, this is consistent with the standard CHSKP flare model in which magnetic reconnection in a coronal current sheet results in new hot loops being formed at progressively higher altitudes. The explanation for the nonthermal emission is not so clear.

Gamma rays↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning forecasts the spatiotemporal evolution of fluid-induced microearthquakes

Microearthquakes generated by subsurface fluid injection record the evolving stress state and permeability of reservoirs. Forecasting their spatiotemporal evolution is therefore critical for applications such as enhanced geothermal systems, carbon dioxide sequestration and other geoengineering applications. Here we propose a transformer neural network model that ingests hydraulic stimulation history and prior microearthquake observations to forecast four key quantities: cumulative microearthquake count, cumulative logarithmic seismic moment, and the 50th- and 95th-percentile extents of the microearthquake cloud. Applied to the EGS Collab Experiment 1 dataset, the model achieves R2 > 0.98 for the 1-s forecast horizon and R2 > 0.88 for the 15-s forecast horizon across all targets, and supplies uncertainty estimates through a learned standard deviation term. These accurate, uncertainty-quantified forecasts enable real-time inference of fracture propagation and permeability evolution, demonstrating the strong potential of deep-learning approaches to improve seismic-risk assessment and guide mitigation strategies in future fluid-injection operations.

Chung, Jaehong↗

DOE OSTI2024

The DEHVILS in the details: Type Ia supernova Hubble residual comparisons and mass step analysis in the near-infrared

Measurements of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the near-infrared (NIR) have been used both as an alternate path to cosmology compared to optical measurements and as a method of constraining key systematics for the larger optical studies. With the DEHVILS sample, the largest published NIR sample with consistent NIR coverage of maximum light across three NIR bands ( Y, J , and H ), we check three key systematics: (i) the reduction in Hubble residual scatter as compared to the optical, (ii) the measurement of a “mass step” or lack thereof and its implications, and (iii) the ability to distinguish between various dust models by analyzing slopes and correlations between Hubble residuals in the NIR and optical. We produce SN Ia simulations of the DEHVILS sample and find that it is harder to differentiate between various dust models than previously understood. Additionally, we find that fitting with the current SALT3-NIR model does not yield accurate wavelength-dependent stretch-luminosity correlations, and we propose a limited solution for this problem. From the data, we see that (i) the standard deviation of Hubble residual values from NIR bands treated as standard candles are 0.007–0.042 mag smaller than those in the optical, (ii) the NIR mass step is not constrainable with the current sample size of 47 SNe Ia from DEHVILS, and (iii) Hubble residuals in the NIR and optical are correlated in the data. We test a few variations on the number and combinations of filters and data samples, and we observe that none of our findings or conclusions are significantly impacted by these modifications.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

First observation of antiproton annihilation at rest on argon in the LArIAT experiment

We report the first observation and measurement of antiproton annihilation at rest on argon track and shower multiplicities and particle identification conducted with the LArIAT experiment. Stopping antiprotons from the Fermilab Test Beam Facility’s charged particle test beam are identified using beamline instrumentation and LArIAT’s liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). The charged particle multiplicity from the annihilation vertex is manually evaluated via hand scanning, yielding a mean of 3.2 ± 0.4 tracks and a standard deviation of 1.3 tracks, consistent with a semiautomated reconstruction resulting in 2.8 ± 0.4 tracks and a standard deviation of 1.2 tracks. Both methods are consistent with Monte Carlo simulations within statistical uncertainty. The shower multiplicities and particle identification for outgoing tracks are also consistent with eant4 model predictions. These results, obtained from a low-statistics sample, provide a foundation for higher-statistics studies in larger LArTPCs, which could refine modeling of intranuclear annihilation on argon and inform scenarios such as neutron-antineutron oscillations. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1973

A fine pointing system for the large space telescope

The large space telescope (LST) developed by NASA requires ultrahigh pointing stability within 0.0005 arc sec rms. A fine guidance system is proposed to body-point the entire spacecraft within this limit. The spacecraft is modeled as a rigid body having reaction wheel actuators and subject to gravitational and magnetic disturbance torques. The fine guidance sensor is cluttered with electronic noise. The disturbance accommodation standard deviation optimal controller (DASOC) is designed to be optimal with respect to the transient and the steady state response to noise, whereas the steady state response to deterministic external torques is exactly zero. Compared with conventional controllers, the fine guidance system with the DASOC offers as much as a factor of 30 improvement in pointing stability, resulting in an optimal performance of nearly 0.0001 arc sec rms. Thus, the required pointing stability can easily be obtained, and a large margin remains for the compensation of possibile deteriorations.

Schiehlen, W. O.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Prediction of initiation of low and high explosive fillers due to fragment or projectile impact

A methodology is presented which provides predictions for the probability of initiation of explosion in high explosive filled warheads and in propellant filled rocket motor cases given the impact of compact fragments or of small projectiles. Equations of velocities at which 50 percent of the explosive filled cases will initiate either high or low order are developed for compact fragments, and for projectiles. These data are used to establish the standard deviation of the data from the 50 percent initiation line. Standard deviation is used to provide predictions of the probability of initiation given the impact velocity and other pertinent parameters using equations and logic which are established in a computer model. This computer model uses fragment material properties and encounter parameters to predict fragment impact initiation, and projectile and casing material properties and encounter parameters to predict projectile impact initiation.

Zabel, P. H.↗