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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Parameterization of Cloud and Rain Microphysics in E3SM using Novel Observationally-Constrained Bayesian Approach (Final Technical Report)

In this project, we sought to develop new cloud and rain microphysics frameworks within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This work encompassed two primary avenues of research: 1) Further development of a Bayesian-based scheme called BOSS (Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme) to represent cloud and rain microphysics, testing it in realistic high-resolution cloud models, and implementing it in E3SM; 2) Development of a methodology utilizing machine learning to enable computationally tractable use of tractable use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian parameter estimation in Earth system and cloud models. In this project, we adapted the BOSS microphysics scheme, originally formulated for rain-only, to include all liquid-phase microphysical processes for cloud and rain, in particular the processes that mediate between these two categories, for example the conversion from cloud to rain through collision and coalescence of drops. We constrained the scheme via comparison and testing against a detailed model that explicitly represents the evolution of cloud and rain particles, called a bin microphysics scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Scalable Coastal and Offshore Macroalgal Farming

The US DOE/ARPA-E MARINER program funded a four-year project to determine an optimal way to grow kelps in large, nearshore and offshore arrays for the eventual purpose of biofuel production with the goal of keeping the cost below $\$$80 USD per dry metric ton of kelp. This project specifically looked at how Saccharina latissima can be grown in the Gulf of Alaska to reach that goal. There were three major aspects of the research: 1) optimizing nursery production and seeding lines for outplanting, 2) designing an economical, modular outplanting structure and 3) developing methods to efficiently harvest the product. Farm designs were based on catenary structures and the use of spreader bars with variable spacing of grow lines and line types. The spacing of the grow lines makes a difference in the yield. Grow line spacing of ≥1.5m showed about a 50% increase in kg/m. There was no statistical difference in the growth of Saccharina latissima whether in the middle or the outside of the array, but the line type and perhaps line thickness can make a difference in yield. Sagging caused by the weight of the mature fronds resulted in lower growth at depth. Various harvesting approaches for mature kelps were tested by collaborating farmers. One promising innovation is the use of large bags for holding the freshly harvested fronds. Although the weight of the fronds on the growlines causes the lines to sink, the bags packed with the harvested fronds float, allowing for easy loading to the transfer vessel. Another advance in harvesting is a specially built harvest vessel, the Harvest Buddy, allowing a more mechanized and faster way to harvest. A significant aspect of this project was the TTO/T2M. Several different outreach activities were performed by the Alaska Fisheries Development Foundation and GreenWave. A techno-economic assessment (TEA) using our data has pointed to solutions to reach the $\$$80 goal. A second phase of this project involved the co-culture of two different species of kelps. Interest in farming kelps has grown beyond using kelp for food, feed or biofuels. There is considerable interest in generating biomass from seaweed for use in bioplastics and other products that would substitute for petroleum-derived products. For these uses to be viable, large amounts of biomass are needed. Very large kelp farms can be expensive to build and maintain, leading to the need to optimize the biomass per unit area. Although close spacing of growlines can lead to poor growth, a viable approach may be to grow two species of kelps together: one that hangs down and one that is buoyant, growing up. This system would increase the spacing in three dimensions. In Alaska, Saccharina latissima is commonly grown hanging down from longlines. One of the buoyant Alaskan kelps is Nereocystis luetkeana. Because there are commercial uses for wild-harvested Nereocystis in Alaska, we undertook a preliminary trial in Kodiak, Alaska that grew both Saccharina and Nereocystis in the same longline array. Closely spaced lines were seeded the first week of February 2023 and set at 3m below the surface. The arrays were harvested in late June 2023. Despite having 45% fewer grow-lines, the total yield of the Nereocystis on the combined arrays was statistically similar to the Nereocystis only arrays. Total yields were greatest on the combined arrays, followed by the Nereocystis only and Saccharina only arrays. These results may have significance for large scale macroalgal production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Digital test signal generation: An accurate SNR calibration approach for the DSN

A new method of generating analog test signals with accurate signal to noise ratios (SNRs) is described. High accuracy will be obtained by simultaneous generation of digital noise and signal spectra at a given baseband or bandpass limited bandwidth. The digital synthesis will provide a test signal embedded in noise with the statistical properties of a stationary random process. Accuracy will only be dependent on test integration time with a limit imposed by the system quantization noise (expected to be 0.02 dB). Setability will be approximately 0.1 dB. The first digital SNR generator to provide baseband test signals is being built and will be available in early 1991.

Gutierrez-Luaces, B. O.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Shuttle payload minimum cost vibroacoustic tests

This paper is directed toward the development of the methodology needed to evaluate cost effective vibroacoustic test plans for Shuttle Spacelab payloads. Statistical decision theory is used to quantitatively evaluate seven alternate test plans by deriving optimum test levels and the expected cost for each multiple mission payload considered. The results indicate that minimum costs can vary by as much as $6 million for the various test plans. The lowest cost approach eliminates component testing and maintains flight vibration reliability by performing subassembly tests at a relatively high acoustic level. Test plans using system testing or combinations of component and assembly level testing are attractive alternatives. Component testing alone is shown not to be cost effective.

Stahle, C. V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Wind-Tunnel Experimentation Advancements for eVTOL Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Model Development

Compared to many conventional aircraft, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle designs present greater aero-propulsive complexity and many interacting factors requiring development of novel testing and model development strategies. This paper describes several advances in statistically-rigorous experiment design methods for wind-tunnel testing of eVTOL aircraft enabling accurate aero-propulsive model development. The techniques are applied to a subscale tilt-rotor eVTOL aircraft configuration built at NASA Langley Research Center that has 24 independent control effectors. The general testing approach, leveraging design of experiments and response surface methodology, is outlined and followed by a detailed description of the experiment design and modeling approach employed for different phases of the wind-tunnel testing. A new approach for gravitational tare modeling is developed and validated, which reduces the required wind-tunnel test time by nearly 50%. A mostly automated trim envelope determination approach is formulated to rapidly determine the aircraft flight envelope to inform transition testing for aero-propulsive model development. Efficient powered-airframe characterization tests are conducted using a nested I-optimal design approach formulated in previous simulation-based testing. The collective wind-tunnel testing approach facilitates rapid characterization of eVTOL aircraft configurations and produces accurate aero-propulsive models that can be used in flight dynamics simulations.

design of experiments↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2019

The comparison of semiempirical and ab initio molecular modeling methods in activity and property evaluation of selected antimicrobial sulfonamides

A group of sulfonamides exhibiting antimicrobial activity was analyzed with the application of quantitative structure–activity/property relationships method. The purpose of this study was to show the common and differentiating characteristics of the analyzed chemical structures alike physicochemically as well as pharmacologically based on the quantum-chemical calculations both in vacuo and in the aquatic environment together with their microbiological activity and chromatographic retention data. The semiempirical and ab initio level of in silico molecular modeling was performed for calculations of statistically significant molecular descriptors to compare obtained results. The relationship between the structure and biological activity and physicochemical parameters data was able to class and describe analyzed molecules and the applied chemometric approaches (principal component analysis, factor analysis, and multiple regression analysis) revealed the influential features of the tested structures responsible for the antimicrobial activity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Clutter Identification based on sparse recovery with dynamically changing dictionary sizes for cognitive radar

Existing radar algorithms assume stationary statistical characteristics for environment/clutter. In practical scenarios, the statistical characteristics of the clutter can dynamically change depending on where the radar is operating. Non-stationarity in the statistical characteristics of the clutter may negatively affect the radar performance. Cognitive radar that can sense the changes in the clutter statistics, learn the new statistical characteristics, and adapt to these changes has been proposed to overcome these shortcomings. We have recently developed techniques for detection of statistical changes and learning the new clutter distribution for cognitive radar. In this work, we will extend the learning component. More specifically, in our previous work, we have developed a sparse recovery based clutter distribution identification to learn the distribution of the new clutter characteristics after the detected change in the statistics of the clutter. In our method, we have built a dictionary of clutter distributions and used this dictionary in orthogonal matching pursuit to perform sparse recovery of the clutter distribution assuming that the dictionary includes the new distribution. In this work, we propose a hypothesis testing based approach to detect whether the new distribution of the clutter is included in the dictionary or not, and suggest a method to dynamically update the dictionary. We envision that the successful outcomes of this work will be of high relevance to the adaptive learning and cognitive augmentation of the radar systems that are used in remotely piloted vehicles for surveillance and reconnaissance operations.

Zhu, Yuansheng↗
NASA NTRS1977

Testing the accuracy of remote sensing land use maps

Some of the main aspects that need to be considered in a remote sensing sampling design are: (1) the frequency that any one land use type (on the ground) is erroneously attributed to another class by the interpreter; (2) the frequency that the wrong land use (as observed on the ground) is erroneously included in any one class by the remote sensing interpreter; (3) the proportion of all land (as determined in the field) that is mistakenly attributed by the interpreter; and (4) the determination of whether the mistakes are random (so that the overall proportions are approximately correct) or subject to a persistent bias. A sampling and statistical testing procedure is presented which allows an approximate answer to each of these aspects. The concept developed and described incorporates the probability of making incorrect interpretations at particular prescribed accuracy levels, for a certain number of errors, for a particular sample size. It is considered that this approach offers a meaningful explanation of the interpretation accuracy level of an entire remote sensing land use survey.

Vangenderen, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A probabilistic approach to radiative energy loss calculations for optically thick atmospheres - Hydrogen lines and continua

An approximate probabilistic radiative transfer equation and the statistical equilibrium equations are simultaneously solved for a model hydrogen atom consisting of three bound levels and ionization continuum. The transfer equation for L-alpha, L-beta, H-alpha, and the Lyman continuum is explicitly solved assuming complete redistribution. The accuracy of this approach is tested by comparing source functions and radiative loss rates to values obtained with a method that solves the exact transfer equation. Two recent model solar-flare chromospheres are used for this test. It is shown that for the test atmospheres the probabilistic method gives values of the radiative loss rate that are characteristically good to a factor of 2. The advantage of this probabilistic approach is that it retains a description of the dominant physical processes of radiative transfer in the complete redistribution case, yet it achieves a major reduction in computational requirements.

Canfield, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Comparison of IC and MEMS packaging reliability approaches

This paper reviews the current status of IC and MEMS packaging technology with emphasis on reliability, compares the norm for IC packaging reliability evaluation and identifies challenges for development of reliability methodologies for MEMS, and finally, proposes the use of COTS MEMS in order to start generating statistically meaningful reliability data as a vehicle for future standardization of reliability test methodology for MEMS packaging.

microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) chip scale p↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey: Modeling strategy for multiprobe cluster cosmology and validation for the Full Six-year Dataset

We introduce an updated To&Krause2021 model for joint analyses of cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations of weak lensing and galaxy and cluster clustering (termed CL+3x2pt analysis) and validate that this model meets the systematic accuracy requirements of analyses with the statistical precision of the final Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 (Y6) dataset. The validation program consists of two distinct approaches, (1) identification of modeling and parameterization choices and impact studies using simulated analyses with each possible model misspecification (2) end-to-end validation using mock catalogs from customized Cardinal simulations that incorporate realistic galaxy populations and DES-Y6-specific galaxy and cluster selection and photometric redshift modeling, which are the key observational systematics. In combination, these validation tests indicate that the model presented here meets the accuracy requirements of DES-Y6 for CL+3x2pt based on a large list of tests for known systematics. In addition, we also validate that the model is sufficient for several other data combinations: the CL+GC subset of this data vector (excluding galaxy--galaxy lensing and cosmic shear two-point statistics) and the CL+3x2pt+BAO+SN (combination of CL+3x2pt with the previously published Y6 DES baryonic acoustic oscillation and Y5 supernovae data).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Twentieth-Century Hydrometeorological Reconstructions to Study the Multidecadal Variations of the Water Cycle Over France

Characterizing and understanding the multidecadal variations of the continental hydrological cycle is a challenging issue given the limitation of observed data sets. In this paper, a new approach to derive twentieth century hydrological reconstructions over France with an hydrological model is presented. The method combines the results of long-term atmospheric reanalyses downscaled with a stochastic statistical method and homogenized station observations to derive the meteorological forcing needed for hydrological modeling. Different methodological choices are tested and evaluated. We show that using homogenized observations to constrain the results of statistical downscaling help to improve the reproduction of precipitation, temperature, and river flows variability. In particular, it corrects some unrealistic long-term trends associated with the atmospheric reanalyses. Observationally constrained reconstructions therefore constitute a valuable data set to study the multidecadal hydrological variations over France. Thanks to these reconstructions, we confirm that the multidecadal variations previously noted in French river flows have mainly a climatic origin. Moreover, we show that multidecadal variations exist in other hydrological variables (evapotranspiration, snow cover, and soil moisture). Depending on the region, the persistence from spring to summer of soil moisture or snow anomalies generated during spring by temperature and precipitation variations may explain river flows variations in summer, when no concomitant climate variations exist.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical reconstruction of 3D well-connected porous media from 2D exemplars using statistics-informed neural network

The relationships between porous microstructures and transport properties are of fundamental importance in various scientific and engineering applications. Due to the intricacy, stochasticity and heterogeneity of porous media, reliable characterization and modeling of transport properties often require a complete dataset of internal microstructure samples. However, it is often an unbearable cost to acquire sufficient 3D digital microstructures by purely using microscopic imaging systems. Herein this paper presents a machine learning-based technique to hierarchically reconstruct 3D well-connected porous microstructures from one isotropic or several anisotropic low-cost 2D exemplar(s). To compactly characterize the large-scale microstructural features, a Gaussian image pyramid is built for each 2D exemplar. Local morphology patterns are collected from the Gaussian image pyramids, and then they serve as the training data to embed the 2D morphological statistics into feed-forward neural networks at multiple length levels. By using a specially-developed morphology integration scheme, the 3D morphological statistics at different levels can be inferred from the statistics-informed neural networks. Gibbs sampling is adopted to hierarchically reconstruct 3D microstructures by using multi-level 3D morphological statistics, where the large-scale, regional and local morphological patterns are statistically generated and successively added to the same 3D random field. The proposed method is tested on a series of porous media with distinct morphologies, and the statistical equivalence between the reconstructed and the real microstructures is systematically evaluated by comparing morphological descriptors and transport properties. The results demonstrate that the proposed 2D-to-3D microstructure reconstruction method is a universal and efficient approach to generating morphologically and physically realistic samples of porous media.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2002

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type 1 censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Krantz, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type I censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Kranz, Timothy L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗