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DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Outer Radiation Belt Dynamics During the October 2012 Storm Revisited: Rapid Inward Radial Transport From a Dynamic Outer Boundary

Earth's outer radiation belt electron flux is highly variable and can be enhanced by over an order of magnitude over timescales less than one day, as observed during the October 2012 storm. Previous studies of this storm (e.g., Reeves et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1237743) have invoked local acceleration to explain this. However, here, we argue that the observations can instead be explained by fast inward radial transport. One method often invoked to distinguish between these two acceleration processes is the existence of local peaks in electron phase space density (PSD) as a function of L* at fixed first, M, and second, K, adiabatic invariants. However, this method relies on the assumption that the evolution of the PSD as a function of L* occurs over timescales slower than the satellite orbital period. Here, high spatiotemporal resolution data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) spacecraft constellation is used to show that enhancements in the PSD occur during the October 2012 storm over short timescales not resolvable by the Van Allen Probes. In addition, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite spacecraft data also indicate that these enhancements are consistent with relativistic electron injections. A radial diffusion model is shown to reproduce the PSD dynamics observed by the Van Allen Probes, once rapid variations at the simulation outer boundary are included, consistent with GPS data. This verifies that apparently “locally growing” peaks in PSD along high apogee satellite orbits can be produced by fast inward radial transport without requiring the action of any local acceleration processes.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The microphysics of the warm-rain and ice crystal processes of precipitation in simulated continental convective storms

Precipitation in clouds can form by either warm-rain or ice crystal processes, referred to as warm and cold formation pathways, respectively. Here, we investigate the warm and cold pathway contributions to surface precipitation in simulated continental convective storms. We analyze three contrasting convective storms that are cold-based, slightly warm-based and very warm-based. We apply tracer-tagging techniques in our aerosol-cloud model to determine simulated microphysical pathways that lead to precipitation. We find cold components of graupel and rain mass were higher than warm components in cold- and slightly warm-based clouds. By contrast, in very warm-based clouds nearly 80% of surface precipitation was formed via warm-rain processes. Lowering of cloud base altitude to levels about 10–20 K warmer switched surface precipitation to being mostly warm, due to enhanced moisture content in the planetary boundary layer and larger cloud droplets aloft intensifying raindrop freezing. Our simulations indicate that warm and cold processes co-exist in any storm and the balance between them is determined by cloud base temperature and solute aerosol conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

In this study, we investigated whether and how the storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina could change if it occurs in a future warmer climate, and the sensitivity of the changes to atmospheric forcing resolution. Climate model simulations of Hurricane Katrina at 27 km, 4.5 km, and 3 km resolutions were used to drive storm surge simulations in historical and future climates using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. We found that peak surge height increased significantly in the future with all forcing resolutions. However, the future projection is 22% greater in the 3 km forcing, typical of regional climate models, compared to the 27 km forcing, typical of state-of-the-art global climate models. Additionally, the spatial extent of the future change is highly sensitive to forcing resolution, extending most broadly under the 27 km forcing. Furthermore, we found that storm surge duration decreases in the future with all forcing resolutions due to increasing TC translation speed and decreasing ocean lifetime. However, the future change in the surge duration is sensitive to the forcing resolution, decreasing by 31% in the 27 km forcing and 6% in the 3 km forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lightning and Radar Measures of Mixed-Phase Updraft Variability in Tracked Storms during the TRACER Field Campaign in Houston, Texas

Properties of 7488 thunderstorms are summarized for June–September 2022 during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign Houston, Texas, using polarimetric weather radar and VHF 3D Lightning Mapping Array data. Automated tracking of storms linked each instrument’s measurements to a data-defined, time-evolving storm footprint. Within each storm, the depth and magnitude of episodic columns of radar differential reflectivity and specific differential phase quantified the prevalence of updrafts that activated mixed-phase precipitation pathways. Lightning measurements further distinguished the degree of rimed precipitation formation: the fraction of tracks with lightning varied from day to day and cells with lightning had stronger polarimetric columns. Track-level correlation of the lightning flash rate with radar polarimetric measures had substantial spread, showing that lightning provides an additional signal of mixed-phase precipitation processes that can complement future studies of thermodynamic and aerosol controls on cloud microphysics in the Houston region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A protocol and analysis of year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models and beyond

We propose a protocol to evaluate and analyze year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). The proposed protocol complements an earlier 40-day simulation protocol under the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) project to allow the analysis of the seasonal cycle and associated climatic relevant phenomena. This intercomparison aims to reveal how GSRMs, which can simulate mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the global domain, reproduce atmospheric large-scale structures related to convection beyond month-long simulations. The intercomparison for one-year simulations is conducted by either atmosphere-only models or atmosphere–ocean coupled models with atmospheric horizontal mesh sizes less than 5 km. We recommend the continuous four seasons from March 2020 to February 2021 as a target period for the intercomparison but with options for many groups to join more flexibly. The output variables are collected at 0.25° resolution, and archives of a small set of native grid variables are encouraged to analyze tropical cyclones and MCSs. Through the proposed global storm-resolving simulation, we will evaluate the climatological distributions of the atmospheric large-scale circulations, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon, midlatitude jets, their time evolution, and the upscale impacts on them. We present sample analyses from a one-year simulation using the 3.5 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), revealing the realistic zonal contrast of tropical precipitation, no double ITCZ structure, the reasonable midlatitude jet position and intensity but a weak bias of storm track activities, and a warm bias over the Eurasia during boreal winter. We also clarify the cross-scale interaction, such as the effects of cold pools on mean precipitation over the Maritime Continent through the precipitation diurnal cycle and the effects of resolved gravity waves on midlatitude mean flows. The proposed one-year simulation protocol is referred to as the “Sendai Protocol.” This protocol is not unique or definite for evaluating GSRMs; we prospect a hierarchical set of experiments from short-term to multi-year simulations as GSRM intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

HI-STORM Overpack and MPC-32 Thermal-Hydraulic Model with MOOSE Framework

Nuclear power is a significant source of electricity in the United States, but the average age of nuclear power plants is around 40 years old. The safe management of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is a key aspect of the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Spent fuel dry storage systems are becoming a popular and effective solution in this area, given the absence of a final disposal system. The spent fuel cask system (dry cask method) provides a feasible solution to maintain spent fuel for 60 years before final disposal. Dry cask storage has many characteristics that make it attractive. It fulfills the safety requirements of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) while providing modularity and flexibility to contractors. The HI-STORM overpack and MPC-32 canister are the main parts of the HI-STORM 100 dry cask storage system. These components remove heat from the system using natural circulation, requiring no human intervention. This is the characteristic that provides passive heat removal and low maintenance features in dry cask storage systems. To develop a thermal model for a dry cask storage system, the physics behind the system should be defined clearly. There are two natural circulation loops in the system; circulation of helium cools down the nuclear assemblies in the MPC, while circulation of air cools down the walls of the MPC. This work aims to develop a thermal model of the MPC-32 canister and HI-STORM overpack using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). MOOSE is an open-source framework developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for multiscale, multiphysics simulations. In this study, we will investigate and demonstrate the thermal-hydraulics modeling capabilities of the MOOSE framework, including natural circulation, heat transfer, and porous flow.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Annual Storm Water Report for the Y-12 National Security Complex Oak Ridge, Tennessee

This is the seventh annual storm water report prepared in accordance with the modified National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit issued to the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) on April 1, 2014. This modified permit removed the authorization to augment flow in East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) and thus removed the requirement to sample this effluent in conjunction with other major outfalls on EFPC. The general condition of the site continues to improve. The concentrations of Escherichia Coli (Es. coli) at the major outfalls and instream monitoring locations on EFPC are no longer elevated as they were in 2018. Follow-up samples indicated normal levels. Monitoring for this parameter will continue into 2020. The repair of Outfall 014 is nearing completion and will be sampled for storm water in 2020. This repair was expected to occur in 2019 but was delayed until 2020. There are several construction and demolition activities currently in progress at Y-12. These include the construction of the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF), the Mercury Treatment Facility (MTF) on EFPC and the impending demolition of the Biology Complex. These projects will present challenges for the protection of storm water. Oversight of these activities will be a priority in 2020. Y-12 will continue to implement appropriate Best Management Practices and reduce outside material storage areas where possible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Solar Photovoltaics in Severe Weather: Cost Considerations for Storm Hardening PV Systems for Resilience

Solar photovoltaic (PV) power has many advantages as a resilient power source, including the ability to provide power after a natural disaster. While solar arrays often survive severe weather events, systems are occasionally compromised and left unable to provide power. For PV systems to act as resilient power providers, they must remain operational. Building a system that is more likely to survive a storm comes at a cost, though. Previous efforts have identified various system measures and practices that can increase the likelihood of a PV system surviving a severe weather event. But what is the cost premium for a storm hardened PV system? This report provides initial estimates for the up-front cost premiums for various methods of storm hardening PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling of Convective Storms Driven by Real-time Analytics

Convective storms vertically transport water vapor and condensate from Earth’s surface to the upper troposphere. Life on Earth is fundamentally linked to this transport which determines the hydrological cycle, and the intensity of severe weather responsible for the destruction of life and property. Despite advances in high-resolution modeling and better observational capabilities, the scientific community continues to be confronted with knowledge gaps about convective storms that limit our predictive capabilities. The ongoing developments in the high-resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), large eddy simulations, and AI-based analytics to evaluate uncertainties are expected to provide a comprehensive framework for new scientific discovery. The model-experiment (MODEX) approach suggests that the aforementioned advancements in model development and AI-based inference techniques should be complemented by similar advancements in the experimental (observational) side so that the former does not outstrip the ability of the latter to provide meaningful constraints. What are the recent advancements in observations that will provide the necessary leap forward in improving our predictive capabilities? To address this question, we propose a new experimental paradigm called Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS) that capitalizes on advancements in communications (5G), computational resources (edge/fog computing), sensor capabilities, and machine learning (ML) and AI techniques (Kollias et al., 2020). The MAAS framework allows for the collection of higher spatiotemporal resolution and quality observations of convective storms than is traditionally possible. The MAAS framework is scalable and applicable to atmospheric observatories such as those operated by the Department of Energy (DoE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Winter Storm Elliott: Energy Emergency Alert Lessons Learned

Power blackouts in the United States in 2022 highlighted the need for better communication and planning among power grid stakeholders. This need was further demonstrated at a 2021 workshop held by the Grid Reliability Initiative Utilizing Data Standardization (GRIDS) Project. The GRIDS Project was established to understand and address the gaps in communication between the transmission and distribution operators. With the ongoing energy transition including electrification, distributed energy resource penetration, and so on, this project aims for improved energy emergency communications at the transmission-distribution interface. In 2022, Winter Storm Elliott affected 60% of the United States population (Weather Underground 2022), resulting in rolling blackouts in many areas of the eastern United States (Knoxville Utilities Board [KUB] 2023). Information presented here is based on the GRIDS workshop findings and subsequent research and interviews with stakeholders. After a brief summary of the effects of Winter Storm Elliott, this report covers the standard energy emergency communications processes currently in use, how the storm affected power management operations for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and its local utility companies, and related experiences in other states. The report concludes with lessons learned and recommendations for improvements and a path forward.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of a MOOSE thermal model of the MPC-32 canister and HI-STORM overpack

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble-Based Characterization of Historical Storm Types in ERA5 over CONUS

We present Storm-Type Labeled Precipitation, a gridded dataset that classifies ERA5 precipitation over CONUS (20–50° N, 125–66° W) by storm type at 6-hourly resolution. Each grid cell/time step is assigned to one of five classes—mesoscale convective system (MCS), extratropical cyclone (ETC), hurricane (HUR), atmospheric river (AR), or other convective, with an “unidentified” code reserved for cases with no detected type. Two products are provided: (i) a TempestExtremes (TE)–only version, and (ii) a hybrid TRACK–TE version that uses TRACK for ETCs and HURs and TE for MCSs and ARs. Outputs are integer masks aligned to ERA5 precipitation, supporting storm-type attribution of rainfall, event compositing, trend analysis, and model evaluation. Future work will extend detection to high-resolution downscaled Earth system model projections to support evaluations of projected changes in hydrologic hazards that may threaten critical water and energy infrastructures.

Rastogi, Deeksha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000204624027)↗

DOE OSTI2024

SAIL Storm Boards 2022-2023

“Storm Boards” are simple installations comprised of a horizontal white plastic board that is placed in situ on the surface of the snowpack with a 1 m vertical marker pole for identifying the board center and approximate new snow height. Storm boards allow newly fallen snow to accumulate on them while staying separated from moisture and energy exchange with the snowpack, thus creating a discrete sample of newly fallen snow depth & SWE (snow water equivalent) that can be measured to calculate the net moisture input of individual or multiple storm events to the seasonal snowpack. Samples are measured with a 2” diameter plastic tube that allows the observer to non destructively take a snow core of the newly deposited snow; this core is weighed with a small hand scale - then the mass of the sample is converted to SWE. Depth of the snow sample is obtained with a snow depth probe or from graduated marks on the plastic tube. 3 or more replicate samples are taken for each board measurement and averaged. Total snow height (HS) of the snowpack is measured with a snow depth probe for each site & timepoint to track snowpack accumulation/ablation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1966

An analysis of eight flights by U-2 aircraft over severe storms in Oklahoma

The method and results of the analysis of photographic records of the summit areas of severe storms obtained from a U-2 aircraft flying at an altitude of 65,000 ft. over Oklahoma are described. Comparison of the heights of storm cells protruding through the main anvil cirrus deck of a squall line with the predictions of simple "parcel" theory suggests the latter may be used to indicate the maximum development attainable (but not necessarily attained) by a squall line on a given day. It is suggested that temperatures approaching -1OO°C. may occur in the domes of giant quasi-steady storm cells reaching altitudes of 55,000 - 60,000 ft. bounded by a thin shell of extremely stable air, which is not inconsistent with the rather smooth texture of dome summits sometimes shown by the U-2 photographs.

CLOUD PHOTOGRAPHY↗

NASA NTRS1971

The developing stages of the Martian yellow storm of 1971

A history of the yellow storm on Mars which occurred in 1971 is presented. It is compared to the Great 1956 Yellow Cloud, and possible yellow storms are predicted for 1973. Photographs of the stages of evolution and the path of the storm are included.

Capen, C. F.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Geomagnetic storm fields near a synchronous satellite.

An apparent early recovery of the main phase of geomagnetic storms at the distance of the synchronous satellite is examined in terms of changing electric current distributions in the magnetosphere during magnetic storms. It is suggested that a rapid recession of the edge of the plasma sheet (after the advance toward the earth during an early epoch of the main phase) is partly responsible for the early recovery. Relevant plasma sheet variations during geomagnetic storms are found to be in agreement with the inferred variations.

Kawasaki, K.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Mars' great storm of 1971.

Description of the development of this planet-wide storm and its subsequent decline through mid-January 1972. The initial core of the disturbance extended northeast to southwest. Preliminary examination of photographic data indicates that the storm, yellow in color, spread completely around the planet in about 16 days. During the storm, red- and green-light photographs recorded Mars as brighter than normal, while in blue it was only slightly brighter, and in the ultraviolet there was no significant change. The history of yellow clouds is discussed. They seem to germinate in specific areas in the southern hemisphere, such as the Hellas-Noachis region. Another yellow cloud is predicted for July or August of 1973.

Capen, C. F.↗