Results for “System-Theoretic Process Analysis” — Page 21

NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laser Beam Welding Benchmark Experiments Performed in Reduced Gravity and Vacuum

Laser beam welding (LBW) is affected by the extreme temperatures, reduced pressure, and reduced gravity present in space environments. Gravity and pressure especially influence its melt pool and solidification dynamics. A compact, modular vacuum chamber adaptable to flight platforms from parabolic to orbital currently hosts an experiment to investigate the combined influence of reduced gravity and pressure on LBW. A swappable cartridge contains a rotating platen on which customizable workpieces can be welded under vacuum, greatly increasing experimental throughput. Instrumentation includes weld and thermal cameras observing the process, thermocouples placed on workpieces, accelerometers, and vacuum sensors. Experimental data gathered during the welding process will be combined with post-flight nondestructive evaluation, metallography, and mechanical testing to provide validation datasets for computational modeling. Phase I of this effort involves a parabolic flight campaign in low gravity while an anticipated Phase II would proceed to in-space demonstration to access extended duration microgravity.

in-space welding↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Predictive Bubble Point Pressure Model for Porous Liquid Acquisition Device Screens

This article presents a simplified model for porous screen channel liquid acquisition devices based on a maximum bubble point pressure method from Adamson and Gast (1997). To validate the model, three 304 stainless steel (325 × 2300, 450 × 2750, and 510 × 3600) mesh samples were tested in methanol, acetone, isopropyl alcohol, and water. Screen pores are estimated based on analysis from scanning electron microscopy, historical data, and current test data. Results show that the bubble point pressure is proportional to the surface tension of the fluid only when accounting for nonzero contact angles. The previous assumption that bubble point pressure scales inversely with effective pore diameter is shown to be invalid, as the second finest 450 × 2750 produced the highest bubble point of the three screens. The simplified bubble point model can be used to make predictions for any pure fluid when pore diameters are based on bubble point tests and not SEM analysis.

Liquid Acquisition Device↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modular Assembled Radiators for Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) VehicLes (MARVL) Project Thermal Technology Development

Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) has been considered for crew and cargo class missions to Mars for more than six decades. The Primary Heat Rejection Subsystem (PHRS) of an NEP vehicle expels the megawatts of waste heat generated by the Power Conversion Subsystem (PCS). In previous studies, integrating the majority of the NEP vehicle within a single launch fairing required the use of complex deployable elements and resulted in reduced PCS efficiency. To achieve the necessary radiating area, past design studies have utilized massive multi-wing folding radiators resulting in conceptual PHRS designs that have been widely acknowledged as non-optimal. The Modular Assembled Radiators for NEP VehicLes (MARVL) project is incorporating in-Space Assembly (iSA) into the design process to realize lightweight, modular, and more capable PHRS radiators. Since the project’s Authority to Proceed (ATP) date of October 2024, the project team has been developing a modular design for the PHRS radiators that will be suitable for both the Mars mission environments and iSA commissioning operations. This document captures the current progress of the incremental technology development for the thermal components of the MARVL System of Interest (SOI).

Modular Radiator↗

NASA NTRS1964

Performance of Solar Reflectors When Applied to Storage of Cryogenic Propellants in Space

An analysis was performed to determine the effectiveness of solar reflectors in reducing heat transfer through the insulation of cryogenic fuel tanks located in deep space. A solar reflector, as used herein, is defined as a surface having a ratio of absorptance with respect to solar radiation to hemispherical emittance (α/ϵ) less than 1.0. This analysis considers the effect of surface coatings with α/ϵ values varying from 0.1 to 1.0 when applied to the external surfaces of bulk insulation or multifoil insulation. Results were obtained in terms of heat leak to two cryogenic propellants, liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen, when stored at Mars, Earth, and Mercury orbital distances from the sun. The results show that, with sufficiently good insulation and low heat leaks to the propellant, α/ϵ is a reasonable criterion of merit for these coatings, but that, at larger heat leaks, consideration of ϵ (or α) is necessary. It was observed that selective finishes of α/ϵ = 0.1 on a given amount of bulk insulation material can reduce the heat leak to 40 to 55 percent of the heat leak obtained when gray finishes are considered. Or, for equivalent heat leaks, a reduction in bulk insulation material thickness of about one-half is possible with high-quality selective finishes (α/ϵ = 0.1) compared with flat reflectors. Larger benefits may be achieved from selective finishes painted on foils; the analysis shows that heat leak may be reduced tenfold for surfaces with an α/ϵ of 0.1 compared with gray surfaces. Again, consideration of equivalent heat leaks indicates that the use of approximately 10 times fewer foils of emissivity 0.05 is possible when spectrally selective surfaces are employed. The present state of the art in achieving such surfaces is also briefly reviewed.

Propellant Storage↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Design Capabilities for Planetary Missions from the NASA Entry Systems Modeling and Instrumentation Portfolio

The Entry Systems Modeling project (ESM) is supported by both the NASA Space Technology and the Science Mission Directorates and focuses on developing simulation tools and validated models for characterizing the performance of entry systems tailored to planetary destinations across the Solar System. ESM is organized into six technical capability areas that together address all relevant factors related to spacecraft entry, as well as some aspects of descent: Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials; Aerothermodynamics; Entry & Descent Vehicle Dynamics; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Vehicle Systems Analysis; and Advanced Tools and Numerical Methods. Development within the capability areas is undertaken explicitly with a focus on transition and infusion to science missions, human exploration missions, and commercial space activities. The present talk details developments that specifically impact science missions, including simulation tool capabilities that aid in mission design and model development to understand entry system performance at a given destination. Examples of the successful infusion and transition of such project outcomes to science missions also are provided. Several simulation tool development efforts within ESM have resulted in new design capabilities for missions. One such outcome is improved toolsets for mission trajectory and concept of operations design. Specifically, an initiative to couple a leading tool for entry, ascent/descent, and orbital trajectory optimization (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II or POST2) to those used within the Agency for interplanetary trajectory optimization (Copernicus and Monte) has made substantial progress, with the outcomes to date promising to allow efficient trajectory optimization across mission phases. Additionally, toolchains for the evaluation of vehicle performance during entry and descent have been developed that allow assessment of multi-dimensional aeroheating on detailed vehicle geometries, characterization of deployment and inflation of parachutes, and assessment of vehicle dynamic stability during descent. These capabilities are achieved by coupling diverse sets of physics together – material response, computational fluid dynamics, radiation, and vehicle dynamics – to suitably describe complex entry and descent phenomena. Several model development and validation efforts for specific destinations and entry regimes also are underway within the ESM project. For instance, new experimental capabilities to validate radiation models at low densities/high altitudes recently have been established with project support, specifically the Low-Density Shock Tube (LDST) at the NASA Ames Research Center Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The LDST is being leveraged to develop improved models of shock layer kinetics and radiation in Titan atmospheres, while future studies will be conducted in the LDST and the existing high velocity shock tube to provide validation data for radiation models of Venus, Ice Giants, and Mars atmospheres. Models describing the aerothermal and thermo-structural performance of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials has been another focus, with multiscale modeling activities on-going for the two leading TPS materials applicable to a range of entry conditions and science missions: the Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and woven materials like 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). A continual effort is made to infuse and transition outcomes from ESM simulation tool and model development activities into relevant science missions. Significant progress has been made on this front, with missions such as Dragonfly, DAVINCI, and Mars Missions benefitting from project outcomes. The groundwork also is being laid to provide insights into forward looking missions to Gas/Ice Giants as well as for potential sample returns.

Justin Haskins↗

NASA NTRS1982

Army position on lithium battery safety

User requirements for lithium sulfur batteries are presented. They include careful analysis of design and quality control, along with certain equipment specifications. Some of the specifications include: hermetically sealed cells; lithium limited cells with stoichiometry of lithium to sulfur dioxide as a ratio of one; low moisture content in the cells; and battery capacity.

Reiss, E.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Progress on Shape Memory Alloy Actuator Development for Active Clearance Control

Results of a numerical analysis evaluating the feasibility of high-temperature shape memory alloys (HTSMA) for active clearance control actuation in the high-pressure turbine section of a modern turbofan engine has been conducted. The prototype actuator concept considered here consists of parallel HTSMA wires attached to the shroud that is located on the exterior of the turbine case. A transient model of an HTSMA actuator was used to evaluate active clearance control at various operating points in a test bed aircraft engine simulation. For the engine under consideration, each actuator must be designed to counteract loads from 380 to 2000 lbf and displace at least 0.033 in. Design results show that an actuator comprised of 10 wires 2 in. in length is adequate for control at critical engine operating points and still exhibit acceptable failsafe operability and cycle life. A proportional-integral- derivative (PID) controller with integrator windup protection was implemented to control clearance amidst engine transients during a normal mission. Simulation results show that the control system exhibits minimal variability in clearance control performance across the operating envelope. The final actuator design is sufficiently small to fit within the limited space outside the high-pressure turbine case and is shown to consume only small amounts of bleed air to adequately regulate temperature.

Jonathan DeCastro↗

NASA NTRS1967

Medical Aspects of Gemini Extravehicular Activities

The medical aspects of Gemini extravehicular activities are principally concerned with the physiological responses to high workloads, high thermal stresses, and low fatigue tolerance. Analysis of physiological instrumentation data. from extravehicular flights and training operations contributed significantly to the understanding of extra-vehicular workloads and the means of controlling these workloads.

G Fred Kelly↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Off‑World Additive Manufacturing - Augmenting NASA‑STD‑6030

This slide presents a summary for a soon to be released white paper on augmenting NASA-STD-6030 for off-world manufacturing. It examines the driving need for in-space manufacturing and its corresponding risks, challenges, potential solutions, and technology development needed to qualify a process.

NASA-STD-6030↗

NASA NTRS1987

Advances in nickel hydrogen technology at Yardney Battery Division

The current major activites in nickel hydrogen technology being addressed at Yardney Battery Division are outlined. Five basic topics are covered: an update on life cycle testing of ManTech 50 AH NiH2 cells in the LEO regime; an overview of the Air Force/industry briefing; nickel electrode process upgrading; 4.5 inch cell development; and bipolar NiH2 battery development.

Bentley, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Magellan battery operations: An overview

The Magellan Spacecraft's mission to map Venus's surface provides a unique application for Nickel-Cadmium batteries. An overview of the spacecraft, power subsystem, battery, and mission requirements are presented. The reliability and performance of the batteries were extensively studied with a comprehensive test and analysis program. Actual data for cruise and a limited number of mapping orbits is also presented.

Timmerman, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Diverse organic molecules on Mars revealed by the first SAM TMAH experiment

The search for organic matter on Mars has rapidly evolved in the past decade with simple aromatic, S-heterocycles, and aliphatic organic molecules detected in Gale crater. We report the in situ detection of >20 organic molecules from clay-bearing sandstones in the ~3.5-billion-year-old Knockfarrill Hill member of Glen Torridon, Gale crater, by the Sample Analysis at Mars instrument suite onboard the Curiosity rover. These molecules were liberated by the onboard tetramethylammonium hydroxide wet chemistry experiment. Diverse thermochemolysis products, including benzothiophene, methyl benzoate, and single and dicyclic aromatic molecules were released and detected by evolved gas analysis and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Results indicate the experiment successfully released molecules preserved in ancient macromolecular or free organic matter within Martian bedrock despite ~3.5 billion years of diagenesis and radiation exposure.

Amy J Williams↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermo-Poro-Mechanical Modeling of RTV Intumescence

Room temperature vulcanizing (RTV) silicone is a high-temperature adhesive used as a gap-filler between heatshield tiles in numerous entry missions. Its propensity to intumesce, or swell upon exposure to heat, is a well-known effect that needs to be carefully quantified during design. At tile interfaces of charring ablators, intumescence, combined with differential recession, could cause the gap filler to protrude past the ablator outer mold line, forming a “fence”. Fencing can in turn cause transition to turbulence of the flow wetting the heat shield, leading to augmented surface heating. Recent experiments conducted at the Plasmatron X facility, the high enthalpy wind tunnel of the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies, have shown prominent fencing of RTV gap fillers in PICA, under both nitrogen and air plasmas. Similar observations are well known in the arcjet literature. Further experiments under controlled environment, performed using in situ X-ray micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) at the Advanced Light Source (ALS), have shown heating rate-dependent swelling and shrinkage of RTV during pyrolysis. To simulate RTV intumescence, a novel model was introduced in the Porous Materials Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM, PATO, to account for pore-pressure buildup within both closed- and open-pores. The governing equation for the thermo-poro-mechanical response were developed, assuming linear elasticity for the charring silicone. A new multi-pyrolysis model that tracks non-monotonic advancement of material properties with pyrolysis was proposed. This model addresses the limitations of state-of-the-art ablator models to capture the different stages of thermal degradation and coupled thermomechanics. Swelling of RTV was simulated using the new thermo-poro-mechanical model and compared against in situ micro-CT data. Results showed good agreement in intumescence height and temperature profiles at all heating rates, indicating that the key factor contributing to RTV swelling is the internal pressure build-up within closed- and open-pores. As RTV is cured into a soft (rubbery) compound with low-porosity and permeability, initial temperature increase and pyrolysis gas production cause a significant increase of internal pressure, causing a pronounced volume growth. As thermal degradation progresses, rigidization of the silicone occurs due to char hardening which counteract volume shrinkage after gas pressure relief. Overall, our model shows that accounting for changes in properties such porosity, permeability and key thermomechanical coefficients is crucial for capturing the RTV volume change during ablation and enable a predictive capability for heatshield tile interface response. A plan for future calibration of thermomechanical properties evolution during degradation is discussed, as a key next step to close the new model.

RTV↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermo-Poro-Mechanical Modeling of RTV Intumescence

Room temperature vulcanizing (RTV) silicone is a high-temperature adhesive used as a gap-filler between heatshield tiles in numerous entry missions. Its propensity to intumesce, or swell upon exposure to heat, is a well-known effect that needs to be carefully quantified during design. At tile interfaces of charring ablators, intumescence, combined with differential recession, could cause the gap filler to protrude past the ablator outer mold line, forming a “fence”. Fencing can in turn cause transition to turbulence of the flow wetting the heat shield, leading to augmented surface heating. Recent experiments conducted at the Plasmatron X facility, the high enthalpy wind tunnel of the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies, have shown prominent fencing of RTV gap fillers in PICA, under both nitrogen and air plasmas. Similar observations are well known in the arcjet literature. Further experiments under controlled environment, performed using in situ X-ray micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) at the Advanced Light Source (ALS), have shown heating rate-dependent swelling and shrinkage of RTV during pyrolysis. To simulate RTV intumescence, a novel model was introduced in the Porous Materials Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM, PATO, to account for pore-pressure buildup within both closed- and open-pores. The governing equation for the thermo-poro-mechanical response were developed, assuming linear elasticity for the charring silicone. A new multi-pyrolysis model that tracks non-monotonic advancement of material properties with pyrolysis was proposed. This model addresses the limitations of state-of-the-art ablator models to capture the different stages of thermal degradation and coupled thermomechanics. Swelling of RTV was simulated using the new thermo-poro-mechanical model and compared against in situ micro-CT data. Results showed good agreement in intumescence height and temperature profiles at all heating rates, indicating that the key factor contributing to RTV swelling is the internal pressure build-up within closed- and open-pores. As RTV is cured into a soft (rubbery) compound with low-porosity and permeability, initial temperature increase and pyrolysis gas production cause a significant increase of internal pressure, causing a pronounced volume growth. As thermal degradation progresses, rigidization of the silicone occurs due to char hardening which counteract volume shrinkage after gas pressure relief. Overall, our model shows that accounting for changes in properties such porosity, permeability and key thermomechanical coefficients is crucial for capturing the RTV volume change during ablation and enable a predictive capability for heatshield tile interface response. A plan for future calibration of thermomechanical properties evolution during degradation is discussed, as a key next step to close the new model.

silicone intumescence↗

NASA NTRS2026

Flammability Testing Configuration and Approach of Barrier Material Assemblies Designed for Space Flight Applications

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) partnered with Materials and Processes and Flammability subject matter experts from the Johnson Space Center, White Sands Test Facility, and the Marshall Space Flight Center to design and develop a test for evaluating the effectiveness of material assemblies to serve as a barrier between a potential cabin ignition source based on typical flammable materials in the habitable volume of spacecraft.

Morgan Abney↗

NASA NTRS2025

Lyotropic Liquid Crystalline Phase Behavior of Boron Nitride Nanotube Aqueous Dispersions

Boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) are gaining significant interest due to their outstanding mechanical and thermal properties, as well as their potential to serve as a model nanorod system. Processing BNNT liquid crystalline (LC) dispersions enables precise control over BNNT orientation in macroscopic assemblies, while their low absorption in the visible spectrum facilitates studying LCs at exceptionally high concentrations. Here, we investigate the behavior of BNNTs in aqueous solutions stabilized by the surfactant sodium deoxycholate (SDC), examining the effect of BNNT purity and BNNT−SDC concentrations on lyotropic LC formation. We disperse up to 15wt% BNNT in SDC solutions and use polarized light microscopy to detail the transition from an isotropic state to a biphasic regime, where isotropic and nematic domains coexist due to phase separation, to a single fully nematic phase. Cryogenic electron microscopy provides direct evidence of BNNT alignment within nematic domains. Our results show that enhanced depletion-induced attractions, driven by increased surfactant concentration, lower the threshold concentration of BNNT required to form nematic domains. In contrast, low surfactant concentrations relative to BNNT result in insufficiently coated nanotube surfaces, leading to poor dispersions and BNNT aggregation. Additionally, we fabricate well-aligned BNNT films from aqueous LC dispersions. Our findings advance the understanding of BNNT LCs, offering insight into controlling their orientation and highlighting their potential for high-performance materials.

Joe Khoury↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Numerical Predictions of the Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics in the Film Boiling Regime During Tube Quenching

Cryogenic fluid management plays a major role in refueling of spacecrafts while in space for NASA’s future human space exploration missions. Due to the low boiling points of cryogens, storage, transport and handling of these fluids becomes difficult and may result in inefficient operation of the space propulsion systems. For refueling applications in space, the cryogenic fluids have to be transported across different locations and hence, the transfer of cryogenic fluids through pipes become critical. The cryogenic chill-down process is characterized by different regimes of flow boiling, viz., film boiling, transition boiling and nucleate boiling. The prediction of these regimes in a single CFD framework available in the literature is challenging and the present work attempts to address this challenge by initially modeling the film boiling regime accurately and to incorporate an user-defined function for transition and nucleate boiling at a later stage. Hence, the aim of the present work is to numerically model and validate the film boiling regime of the chilldown curve for liquid nitrogen experiments available in the literature. The validations are carried out at different inlet mass fluxes to have a robust simulation methodology. A dispersed mixture model is used to predict the vapor-liquid interface dynamics with the phase change phenomena modeled using the Lee model.

line chilldown↗