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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth response to climate change in the Siberian permafrost zone

Larch-dominant communities are the most extensive high-latitude forests in Eurasia and are experiencing the strongest impacts from warming temperatures. We analyzed larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth index (GI) response to climate change. The studied larch-dominant communities are located within the permafrost zone of Northern Siberia at the northern tree limit (ca. N 67° 38′, E 99° 07′). Methods included dendrochronology, analysis of climate variables, root zone moisture content, and satellitederived gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity. It was found that larch response to warming included a period of increased annual growth increment (GI) (from the 1970s to ca. 1995) with a follow on GI decline. Increase in GI correlated with summer air temperature, whereas an observed decrease in GI was caused by water stress (vapor pressure deficit and drought increase). Water stress impact on larch growth in permafrost was not observed before the onset of warming (ca. 1970). Water limitation was also indicated by GI dependence on soil moisture stored during the previous year. Water stress was especially pronounced for stands growing on rocky soils with low water-holding capacity. GPP of larch communities showed an increasing trend, whereas NPP stagnated. A similar pattern of GI response to climate warming has also been observed for Larix sibirica Ledeb, Pinus sibirica Du Tour, and Abies sibirica Ledeb in the forests of southern Siberia. Thus, warming in northern Siberia permafrost zone resulted in an initial increase in larch growth from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. After that time, larch growth increment has decreased. Since ca. 1990, water stress at the beginning of the vegetative period became, along with air temperature, a main factor affecting larch growth within the permafrost zone.

Larix dahurica↗
NASA NTRS1972

Strengthening of oxidation resistant materials for gas turbine applications

Compressive surface layers were formed on hot-pressed silicon carbide and nitride. The objective of these treatments was to improve the impact resistance of these materials at 1590 K (2400 F). Quenching was used to form compressive surface layers on silicon carbide. The presence of the compressive stresses was demonstrated by slotted rod tests. Compressive stresses were retained at elevated temperatures. Improvements in impact resistance at 1590 K (2400 F) and flexural strength at room temperature were achieved using cylindrical rods 3.3 mm (0.13 in.) in diameter. Carburizing treatments were used to form the surface layers on silicon nitride. In a few cases using rectangular bars improvements in impact resistance at 1590 K (2400 F) were observed.

Platts, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Astrobiology

The session "Astrobiology" included the following reports:The Role of Cometary and Meteoritic Delivery in the Origin and Evolution of Life: Biogeological Evidences Revisited; Hopane Biomarkers Traced from Bedrock to Recent Sediments and Ice at the Haughton Impact Structure, Devon Island: Implications for the Search for Biomarkers on Mars; and Survival of Organic Matter After High Temperature Events (Meteorite Impacts, Igneous Intrusions).

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying deformation during Zry-4 burst testing: a comparison of BISON and a combined in-situ digital image correlation and infrared thermography method

The development and verification of nuclear fuel-cladding performance codes require extensive testing to establish empirical correlations, necessitating more accelerated testing methods that can replace large validation studies. Here, in the present work, a technique was developed and implemented to experimentally quantify the relationship between temperature, cladding internal pressure, and strain in-situ during a burst test, with the specific aim of generating data for code validation and model refinement. Digital image correlation was used to measure hoop, axial, and radial strain, and infrared thermography to quantify axial temperature gradients. Several key experimental modifications to traditional LOCA burst testing were necessary, but are shown to effectively have little impact on burst temperatures. The time/temperature dependent pressure and time/spatially dependent thermal gradient data were used with BISON to simulate cladding burst and strain rates. Although the measured DIC strains reach appreciable amounts at slightly lower temperatures than BISON simulated strains, there is good agreement between the measured and simulated strains in terms of magnitude and rates leading up to burst. However, in the few seconds prior to and during burst, the BISON simulated strains are significantly lower than the measured strains, indicating the potential for model improvement. The combined experiment and simulation technique may be applied to any new cladding concept to accelerate fuel qualification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1972

Determination of impact sensitivity of materials at high pressures

Compact device is used to determine impact sensitivity of material in static, high pressure, gaseous environment. It can also be instrumented to monitor and record pressure, temperature, and striker impact force. Device is used in conjunction with commercially available liquid oxygen impact tester which provides impact energy.

Davis, L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

FORWARD AND INVERSE L-BAND RADIATIVE TRANSFER MODELING OVER THE DRY CHACO, USING SMOS OBSERVATIONS, LAND SURFACE MODELING AND IN SITU DATA

Passive microwave L-band remote sensing is well known for its sensitivity to surface soil moisture over land.The signal is also affected by other dynamic variables such as vegetation and soil salinity. In this research, L-band microwave observations of the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are used to explore soil surface salinity, moisture and vegetation, in the Argentinean Dry Chaco, an area with possible emerging dryland salinity. A Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) with inclusion of a correction to the soil’s dielectric constant for salinity was used in forward and inverse mode, using either in situ data or Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations as RTM input. The forward analysis pointed out shortcomings in the modeled soil moisture and soil surface temperature estimates. The impact of salinity on forward simulations over the Dry Chaco was limited.The RTM inversion using 10 years of SMOS brightness temperature observations resulted in realistic estimates of vegetation and roughness, both with and withouto ptimizing a correction term for the dielectric constant in terms of salinity equivalents. However,the retrieval of the correction term to the dielectric constant was very uncertain and not representative of soil surface salinity, but rather of open water, texture uncertainty or soil moisture bias.

L-band↗
DOE OSTI2023

Degradation and Modeling of Large-Format Commercial Lithium-Ion Cells as a Function of Chemistry, Design, and Aging Conditions

Demand for large-format (>10 Ah) lithium-ion batteries has increased substantially in recent years, due to the growth of both electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets. The economics of these applications is sensitive to the lifetime of the batteries, and end-of-life can either be due to energy or power limitations. Despite this, there is little information from cell manufacturers on the sensitivity of cell degradation to environmental conditions or battery use. This work reports accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries from three manufacturers, with varying design (thickness, casings, ...), chemistry (lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) or lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide positive electrodes (NMC), with graphite (Gr) negative electrodes), and capacity (50 to 250 Amp hours). The tested LFP|Gr cell is found to be relatively insensitive to cycling conditions like temperature or voltage window, while NMC|Gr cells have varying sensitivity. Degradation trends are further investigated by training predictive models: simple polynomial trend lines, a semi-empirical reduced-order model, and an empirical reduced-order model identified using machine-learning based on symbolic regression. Calendar and cycle life are simulated over a variety of conditions to directly compare the various batteries. Cell size and thickness are found to substantially impact sensitivity to temperature during cycle aging, while electrode chemistry impacts depth-of-discharge sensitivity. Real-world battery lifetime is evaluated by simulating residential energy storage and commercial frequency containment reserve systems in several U.S. climate regions. Predicted lifetime across cell types varies from 7 years to 20+ years, though all cells are predicted to have at least 10 year life in certain conditions.

battery lifetime↗
DOE OSTI2022

Irradiation damage concurrent challenges with RAFM and ODS steels for fusion reactor first-wall/blanket: a review

Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are the most promising candidates for fusion first-wall/blanket (FW/B) structures. The performance of these steels will deteriorate during service due to neutron damage and transmutation-induced gases, such as helium/hydrogen, at elevated operating temperatures. Here, after highlighting the operating conditions of fusion reactor concepts and a brief overview, the main irradiation-induced degradation challenges associated with RAFM/ODS steels are discussed. Their long-term degradation scenarios such as (a) low-temperature hardening embrittlement (LTHE)—including dose-temperature dependent yield stress, tensile elongations, necking ductility, test temperature effect on hardening, Charpy impact ductile-to-brittle transition temperature and fracture toughness, (b) intermediate temperature cavity swelling, (c) the effect of helium on LTHE and cavity swelling, (d) irradiation creep and (e) tritium management issues are reviewed. The potential causes of LTHE are discussed, which highlights the need for advanced characterisation techniques. The mechanical properties, including the tensile/Charpy impact of RAFM and ODS steels, are compared to show that the current generation of ODS steels also suffers from LTHE, and shows irradiation hardening up to high temperatures of ~400 °C–500 °C. To minimise this, future ODS steel development for FW/B-specific application should target materials with a lower Cr concentration (to minimise α'), and minimise other elements that could form embrittling phases under irradiation. RAFM steel-designing activities targeting improvements in creep and LTHE are reviewed. The need to better understand the synergistic effects of helium on the thermo-mechanical properties in the entire temperature range of FW/B is highlighted. Because fusion operating conditions will be complex, including stresses due to the magnetic field, primary loads like coolant pressure, secondary loads from thermal gradients, and due to spatial variation in damage levels and gas production rates, an experimentally validated multiscale modelling approach is suggested as a pathway to future reactor component designing such as for the fusion neutron science facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of the Impact of the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection on Interannual Variation in East Asian Winter Temperatures and Monsoon

The large-scale impacts of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection on the East Asian winter climate anomalies are compared for the past 34 winters focusing on 1) interannual monthly to seasonal temperature variability, 2) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and 3) the Siberian high (SH) and cold surge. Regression analysis reveals warming by AO and EA/WR over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. The EA/WR impact is found to be comparable to the AO impact in affecting the East Asian temperature and monsoon. For example, warm (cold) months over mid-latitude East Asia during the positive (negative) AO are clearly seen when the AO and EA/WR are in the same phase. Near zero correlation is found between temperature and the AO phase when both teleconnections are in an opposite phase. The well-known negative relationship between SH and the AO phase is observed significantly more often when the AO is in the same phase with the EA/WR. Also, the indices of EAWM, cold surge, and SH are found to be more highly negative-correlated with the EA/WR rather than with the AO. The advective temperature change and associated circulation demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale field including the SH over the mid-latitude Asian inland is better represented by the EA/WR, influencing the East Asian winter climates. These results suggest that the impact of EA/WR should be considered more important than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Arctic Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Effects of High Temperature Overhead Conductors to Line Rating Variables

For traditional overhead transmission lines, the maximum allowable conductor operating temperature on ASCR, AAC, or AAAC lines for determining the static line ratings can be quite low, typically well under 100 C. At these low temperatures, the primary driver for determining static line ratings are assumptions made about the wind speed and direction and the ambient temperature. Assumptions for solar loading and emitted thermal radiation, driven by line emissivity and absorptivity, are secondary factors, and only provide small changes to the static ratings. However, when considering newer high temperature conductors such as ACSS, ACCR, ZTACIR, and ACCC® the maximum allowable conductor temperatures can be significantly higher, up to 250° C. This higher temperature shifts the importance of the emissivity assumptions of the overhead transmission line, due to the nature of the T4 dependence of the radiative heat loss compared to the T1 dependence of the convective heat loss, as well as shifting the dependency on local wind conditions. Typical assumptions in the United States for the emissivity/absorptivity of overhead transmission lines in determining the static ratings are to use a value of 0.5 for both parameters or set a value in the range of 0.7 to 0.9. Recent experimental tests at EPRI have shown that higher emissivity aging assumptions may not be valid in some regions of the US, and that actual values may be much lower (0.25-0.45) than older studies have predicted (0.8-0.9). Here, the assumptions of different US Regional Transmission Operators (RTOs) and different utilities within RTOs are examined for the static ratings for traditional lower operating temperatures up to 100° C as well as with the higher maximum temperature conductors associated with newer conductor designs at 250° C. The sensitivity of the static ratings is examined at both lower and higher temperature conductors with respect to overhead line emissivity and absorptivity, wind speed, wind direction, and solar loading, and ambient temperature. It is shown that the effects of the conductor absorptivity, solar flux and ambient temperature on the static rating are increased when the transmission line has a lower maximum conductor temperature. The effects of the conductor emissivity, wind direction and wind speed have increased effects on the static rating when the transmission line has a higher maximum conductor temperature. In addition, example weather data is used to calculate the conductor temperature with different line emissivity and absorptivity assumptions. This shows the effect of assumptions made for emissivity only has a minor impact for low temperature lines, but for high temperature transmission lines can cause a 150-200° C temperature swing.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microwave-assisted ammonia decomposition over metal nitride catalysts at low temperatures

The negative environmental impact of fossil fuel-based energy systems has unveiled the need to develop a CO x -free sustainable hydrogen (H 2 ) economy. Employing a microwave-assisted route, a ternary metal nitride catalyst (i.e., Co 2 Mo 3 N), and a low-temperature-pressure NH 3 decomposition process, this study investigated the possibility of developing a distributed H 2 production process. Here, this study not only explored lower cost-based catalyst systems but also the use of a microwave reactor to increase the energy efficiency of the process. Results from catalytic NH 3 decomposition experiments, performed in microwave reactors on Co 2 Mo 3 N catalyst, demonstrated the peak energy efficiency (of ~0.006 kgH 2 /kWh) at 400 °C in ambient pressure (with an NH 3 conversion >90%) which was around ninety times (~90 x) more efficient than a conventional system. Activation energy calculation also displayed a 20% less energy requirement for the microwave-based process (~31 kJ mol -1 ) than the conventional system (~37 kJ mol -1 ), indicating the advantage of the microwave-based process. Further microwave-assisted catalytic measurements and characterization of the Co 2 Mo 3 N catalyst, using x-ray diffraction (XRD) technique and scanning electron microscopic (SEM) images, revealed the excellent stability of this material at its peak performance (at 400 °C) and illustrated the potential of using this catalyst for a sustainable, economic, and energy-efficient approach for producing CO x -free H 2 .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY20 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2020 (FY20) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. The FY20 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. Despite delays to some planned activities due to COVID-19 precautions, progress was made during FY20 in multiple research areas and documented in this report as follows: (1) EBS Task Force: Task 9/FEBEX Modeling Final Report: Thermo-Hydrological Modeling with PFLOTRAN, (2) preliminary sensitivity analysis for the FEBEX in-situ heater test, (3) cement-carbonate rock interaction under saturated conditions: from laboratory to modeling, (4) hydrothermal experiments, (5) progress on investigating the high temperature behavior of the uranyl-carbonate complexes, (6) in-situ and electrochemical work for model validation, (7) investigation of the impact of high temperature on EBS bentonite with THMC modeling, (8) sorption and diffusion experiments on bentonite, (9) chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (10) microscopic origins of coupled transport processes in bentonite, (11) understanding the THMC evolution of bentonite in FEBEX-DP—coupled THMC modeling, (12) modeling in support of HotBENT, an experiment studying the effects of high temperatures on clay buffers/near-field, and (13) high temperature heating and hydration column test on bentonite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Impact of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperatures on the Simulated Nocturnal Florida Marine Boundary Layer

High- and low-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analysis products are used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for May 2004 for short-term forecasts over Florida and surrounding waters. Initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by a combination of observations, large-scale model output, and analysis products. The impact of using a 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SST composite on subsequent evolution of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is assessed through simulation comparisons and limited validation. Model results are presented for individual simulations, as well as for aggregates of easterly- and westerly-dominated low-level flows. The simulation comparisons show that the use of MODIS SST composites results in enhanced convergence zones. earlier and more intense horizontal convective rolls. and an increase in precipitation as well as a change in precipitation location. Validation of 10-m winds with buoys shows a slight improvement in wind speed. The most significant results of this study are that 1) vertical wind stress divergence and pressure gradient accelerations across the Florida Current region vary in importance as a function of flow direction and stability and 2) the warmer Florida Current in the MODIS product transports heat vertically and downwind of this heat source, modifying the thermal structure and the MABL wind field primarily through pressure gradient adjustments.

LaCasse, Katherine M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Effect of Electrolyte Additives upon the Lithium Kinetics of Li-Ion Cells Containing MCMB and LiNi(x)Co(1-x)O2 Electrodes and Exposed to High Temperatures

With the intent of improving the performance of lithium-ion cells at high temperatures, we have investigated the use of a number of electrolyte additives in experimental MCMB- Li(x)Ni(y)Co(1-y)O2 cells, which were exposed to temperatures as high as 80 C. In the present work, we have evaluated the use of a number of additives, namely vinylene carbonate (VC), dimethyl acetamide (DMAc), and mono-fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC), in an electrolyte solution anticipated to perform well at warm temperature (i.e., 1.0M LiPF6 in EC+EMC (50:50 v/v %). In addition, we have explored the use of novel electrolyte additives, namely lithium oxalate and lithium tetraborate. In addition to determining the capacity and power losses at various temperatures sustained as a result of high temperature cycling (cycling performed at 60 and 80 C), the three-electrode MCMB-Li(x)Ni(y)Co(1-y)O2 cells (lithium reference) enabled us to study the impact of high temperature storage upon the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) film characteristics on carbon anodes (MCMB-based materials), metal oxide cathodes, and the subsequent impact upon electrode kinetics.

High Temperture Resilience↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of projected changes in sea surface temperature on ozone pollution in China toward carbon neutrality

The global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to change diversely in the future under different climate scenarios, which will affect the near-surface ozone (O 3 ) distribution and concentration by influencing meteorological states and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Many countries have planned to reach carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century. Here in this study, the impacts of global and regional SST changes on near-surface O 3 concentrations in China in the middle of the 21st century under the carbon-neutral scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9), compared with the high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5), and possible physical and chemical mechanisms are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Under future climate change, the changes in SSTs in the carbon-neutral scenario relative to the high-emission scenario lead to a dipole change in near-surface O 3 concentrations in eastern and western China, with a significant decrease of 0.79 ppbv in the eastern China and a significant increase of 1.05 ppbv in the western China. The cooling of North Pacific Ocean under the carbon-neutral scenario causes a decrease in near-surface O 3 concentrations by 0.48 ppbv in eastern China due to the weakened chemical production and an increase by 0.74 ppbv in western China attributed to the enhanced O 3 transport from Eurasia. Cooling of Southern Hemisphere oceans leads to anomalous upward air motions over eastern China, which weaken the vertical transport of high-altitude O 3 to the surface. Our results suggest that future changes in SSTs in the carbon-neutral scenario will positively benefit O 3 air quality improvement in the polluted eastern China, with the North Pacific and Southern Hemisphere oceans playing important roles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems

Abstract Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well‐observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state‐of‐the‐art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

detection↗