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At least 379 records · Page 21

Wildfire Risk Support via Satellite-Derived Vegetation Health and Land Surface Model Soil Moisture

Land Surface Model (LSM) and evaporative demand products provide advanced lead time to wildfire conditions that complement traditional fire indices and represent short-term changes that add context to overall, long-term drought conditions. Established fire indices typically use weather indicators (i.e., precipitation, temperature) and estimated dead fuel moisture to indirectly obtain land surface and sub-surface characterization. The convergence of LSM shallow and deep-layer soil moisture output and satellite-derived vegetation health combine to provide a tool for stakeholders to examine trends in the state of land surface conditions that can help assess wildfire threat. Satellite remote sensing data can constrain near-real time vegetation characteristics within the LSM and/or provide a derived stress index in order to help characterize the wildfire risk. In addition, a percentile product of soil moisture is derived from a comparison of current LSM conditions to the historical record of the LSM in order to put the current conditions in perspective relative to the season and geographic region. The 2015 season as well as the 2018 Camp Fire Complex in California were examined in terms of the changes in LSM soil moisture and vegetation states. Satellite vegetation health consistently showed decreases a month prior to wildfire initiation. Additionally, maximum changes in total column soil moisture corresponded with the greatest concentration of fire locations. While soil moisture deficits occurred in the shallow layers across northern California in 2018, significant deficits at all sub-surface levels were seen ahead of the Camp Fire event. This presentation will demonstrate the complementary value of LSM output and satellite measured vegetation health to diagnose short-term deficits in sub-surface soil moisture and the rapid decline in vegetation health which precedes large wildfire events.

Wildfire↗

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

CMIP6↗

Thermal Electron Heat Fluxes Associated with Precipitated Auroral Electrons During the Saint Patrick's Days 2013 and 2015 Geomagnetic Storms

The Rice Convection Model-Equilibrium (RCM-E) and SuperThermal Electron Transport (STET) are combined to investigate electron heat flux formation in the region of the diffuse aurora for the geomagnetic storms of 17 March 2013 and 17 March 2015. The primary electron precipitation into the atmosphere resulting from wave particle scattering in the magnetosphere are simulated by the magnetically and electrically RCM-E during these two geomagnetic storms. The primary precipitating electron fluxes are modified by the STET model by taking into account atmospheric backscatter processes. The modified electron energy fluxes and their mean energies are coupled to the STET code to calculate electron thermal fluxes associated with diffuse aurora on a global scale. We use the simulated heat flux to estimate electron temperatures at the upper ionospheric altitudes and compare them with corresponding observations from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite.

George V. Khazanov↗

Dominant Cloud Controlling Factors for Low-Level Cloud Fraction: Subtropical Versus Extratropical Oceans

To improve cloud feedback understanding and simulation, observations have been used to quantify the rate of change of cloud radiative properties as a function of specific environmental metrics (or cloud controlling factors; CCFs). The study focuses on low-level cloud dominated regions during 2006–2010. For each ocean gridpoint, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of daily mean observed cloud fraction versus (a) 10-m wind, (b) sensible heat flux (SHF), (c) sea surface temperature, (d) estimated inversion strength (EIS), (e) 850 hPa vertical velocity, and (f) the M parameter (Δ𝜃 800hPa skin ) are sorted to identify the dominant CCFs in both extratropics (30°–60°N/S) and subtropics (30°S–30°N). A novel map for visualizing dominant CCFs for low-level cloud fraction reveals that: Δ𝜃 800hPa skin dominates in the subtropical stratocumulus regions while 10-m winds dominate in shallow cumulus regions but in the extratropics, a different inversion structure diagnostic (EIS) dominates, while SHF dominates in western boundary current areas.

cloud controlling factor↗

Improved HIRS2/MSU soundings using tropopause information

In the GLAS physical retrieval scheme, all temperature profiles are expressed as an expansion about a global mean using empirical orthogonal functions derived from a sample of radiosondes. Total ozone burden, a parameter highly correlated with tropopause height, should be useful in improving sounding accuracy. The ability to estimate tropopause information from layer mean temperatures suggests incorporating the layer mean temperatures estimated from the sounding itself to give estimates of tropopause pressure and temperature. While information completely independent of sounding and first guess data is preferable, additional information is in fact added to the system by the statistical relationships between tropopause temperature and pressure and layer mean temperature profiles. This should not be confused with use of statistical relationships between temperature profiles and satellite observations, which form the basis of a statistical retrieval system but is in no way used in the physical retrieval scheme.

Susskind, J.↗

Thermal Property Parameter Estimation of TPS Materials

Accurate knowledge of the thermophysical properties of TPS (thermal protection system) materials is necessary for pre-flight design and post-flight data analysis. Thermal properties, such as thermal conductivity and the volumetric specific heat, can be estimated from transient temperature measurements using non-linear parameter estimation methods. Property values are derived by minimizing a functional of the differences between measured and calculated temperatures. High temperature thermal response testing of TPS materials is usually done in arc-jet or radiant heating facilities which provide a quasi one-dimensional heating environment. Last year, under the NASA-ASEE-Stanford Fellowship Program, my work focused on developing a radiant heating apparatus. This year, I have worked on increasing the fidelity of the experimental measurements, optimizing the experimental procedures and interpreting the data.

Maddren, Jesse↗

Assimilation of Freeze - Thaw Observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model

The land surface freeze-thaw (F-T) state plays a key role in the hydrological and carbon cycles and thus affects water and energy exchanges and vegetation productivity at the land surface. In this study, we developed an F-T assimilation algorithm for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling and assimilation framework. The algorithm includes a newly developed observation operator that diagnoses the landscape F-T state in the GEOS-5 Catchment land surface model. The F-T analysis is a rule-based approach that adjusts Catchment model state variables in response to binary F-T observations, while also considering forecast and observation errors. A regional observing system simulation experiment was conducted using synthetically generated F-T observations. The assimilation of perfect (error-free) F-T observations reduced the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.206 C and 0.061 C, respectively, when compared to model estimates (equivalent to a relative RMSE reduction of 6.7 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively). For a maximum classification error (CEmax) of 10 percent in the synthetic F-T observations, the F-T assimilation reduced the RMSE of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.178 C and 0.036 C, respectively. For CEmax=20 percent, the F-T assimilation still reduces the RMSE of model surface temperature estimates by 0.149 C but yields no improvement over the model soil temperature estimates. The F-T assimilation scheme is being developed to exploit planned operational F-T products from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission.

GEOS5↗

Regularization for Atmospheric Temperature Retrieval Problems

Passive remote sensing of the atmosphere is used to determine the atmospheric state. A radiometer measures microwave emissions from earth's atmosphere and surface. The radiance measured by the radiometer is proportional to the brightness temperature. This brightness temperature can be used to estimate atmospheric parameters such as temperature and water vapor content. These quantities are of primary importance for different applications in meteorology, oceanography, and geophysical sciences. Depending on the range in the electromagnetic spectrum being measured by the radiometer and the atmospheric quantities to be estimated, the retrieval or inverse problem of determining atmospheric parameters from brightness temperature might be linear or nonlinear. In most applications, the retrieval problem requires the inversion of a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind making this an ill-posed problem. The numerical solution of the retrieval problem requires the transformation of the continuous problem into a discrete problem. The ill-posedness of the continuous problem translates into ill-conditioning or ill-posedness of the discrete problem. Regularization methods are used to convert the ill-posed problem into a well-posed one. In this paper, we present some results of our work in applying different regularization techniques to atmospheric temperature retrievals using brightness temperatures measured with the SSM/T-1 sensor. Simulation results are presented which show the potential of these techniques to improve temperature retrievals. In particular, no statistical assumptions are needed and the algorithms were capable of correctly estimating the temperature profile corner at the tropopause independent of the initial guess.

Velez-Reyes, Miguel↗

Interferometric observations of Saturn and its rings at a wavelength of 3.71 per cm

Interferometric observations of Saturn and its rings obtained at the Owens Valley Radio Observatory at a wavelength of 3.71 cm (8085 MHz) are presented. Models of the microwave brightness structure of the Saturn system are fit to the observations in order to estimate the brightness temperatures of the planet and its rings. The models allowed making estimates of the brightness temperatures and optical depths of the A, B, and C rings. The ring brightness temperatures and optical depths are compared with a physical ring model of isotropic scatterers in a layer which is many particles thick. The observations are consistent with particles that conservatively scatter the thermal emission from Saturn to the earth and emit no thermal radiation of their own. However, the particle single-scattering albedo that would be most consistent with the observations is slightly less than unity but probably greater than 0.95. There is evidence indicating that the ring particles must be at least a few centimeters in size.

Schloerb, F. P.↗

Estimation of subsurface thermal structure using sea surface height and sea surface temperature

A method of determining a subsurface temperature in a body of water is disclosed. The method includes obtaining surface temperature anomaly data and surface height anomaly data of the body of water for a region of interest, and also obtaining subsurface temperature anomaly data for the region of interest at a plurality of depths. The method further includes regressing the obtained surface temperature anomaly data and surface height anomaly data for the region of interest with the obtained subsurface temperature anomaly data for the plurality of depths to generate regression coefficients, estimating a subsurface temperature at one or more other depths for the region of interest based on the generated regression coefficients and outputting the estimated subsurface temperature at the one or more other depths. Using the estimated subsurface temperature, signal propagation times and trajectories of marine life in the body of water are determined.

Kang, Yong Q.↗

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

The Eastern tropical ocean basins are regions of significant atmosphere-ocean interaction and are important to variability across subseasonal to decadal time scales. The numerous physical processes at play in these areas strain the abilities of coupled general circulation models to accurately reproduce observed upper ocean variability. Furthermore, limitations in the observing system of important terms in the surface temperature balance (e.g., turbulent and radiative heat fluxes, advection) introduce uncertainty into the analyses of processes controlling sea surface temperature variability. This study presents recent efforts to close the surface temperature balance through estimation of the terms in the mixed layer temperature budget using state-of-the-art remotely sensed and model-reanalysis derived products. A set of twelve net heat flux estimates constructed using combinations of radiative and turbulent heat flux products - including GEWEX-SRB, ISCCP-SRF, OAFlux, SeaFlux, among several others - are used with estimates of oceanic advection, entrainment, and mixed layer depth variability to investigate the seasonal variability of ocean surface temperatures. Particular emphasis is placed on how well the upper ocean temperature balance is, or is not, closed on these scales using the current generation of observational and model reanalysis products. That is, the magnitudes and spatial variability of residual imbalances are addressed. These residuals are placed into context within the current uncertainties of the surface net heat fluxes and the role of the mixed layer depth variability in scaling the impact of those uncertainties, particularly in the shallow mixed layers of the Eastern tropical ocean basins.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Land-surface temperature measurement from space - Physical principles and inverse modeling

To apply the multiple-wavelength (split-window) method used for satellite measurement of sea-surface temperature from thermal-infrared data to land-surface temperatures, the authors statistically analyze simulations using an atmospheric radiative transfer model. The range of atmospheric conditions and surface temperatures simulated is wide enough to cover variations in clear atmospheric properties and surface temperatures, both of which are larger over land than over sea. Surface elevation is also included in the simulation as the most important topographic effect. Land covers characterized by measured or modeled spectral emissivities include snow, clay, sands, and tree leaf samples. The empirical inverse model can estimate the surface temperature with a standard deviation less than 0.3 K and a maximum error less than 1 K, for viewing angles up to 40 degrees from nadir under cloud-free conditions, given satellite measurements in three infrared channels. A band in the region from 10.2 to 11.0 microns will usually give the most reliable single-band estimate of surface temperature. In addition, a band in either the 3.5-4.0-micron region or in the 11.5-12.6-micron region must be included for accurate atmospheric correction, and a band below the ozone absorption feature at 9.6 microns (e.g., 8.2-8.8 microns) will increase the accuracy of the estimate of surface temperature.

Wan, Zhengming↗

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Munasinghe, L.↗

Joint Assimilation of SMOS Brightness Temperature and GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations for Improved Soil Moisture Estimation

Observations from recent soil moisture missions (e.g. SMOS) have been used in innovative data assimilation studies to provide global high spatial (i.e. 40 km) and temporal resolution (i.e. 3-days) soil moisture profile estimates from microwave brightness temperature observations. In contrast with microwave-based satellite missions that are only sensitive to near-surface soil moisture (0 - 5 cm), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides accurate measurements of the entire vertically integrated terrestrial water storage column but, it is characterized by low spatial (i.e. 150,000 km2) and temporal (i.e. monthly) resolutions. Data assimilation studies have shown that GRACE-TWS primarily affects (in absolute terms) deeper moisture storages (i.e., groundwater). This work hypothesizes that unprecedented soil water profile accuracy can be obtained through the joint assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage and SMOS brightness temperature observations. A particular challenge of the joint assimilation is the use of the two different types of measurements that are relevant for hydrologic processes representing different temporal and spatial scales. The performance of the joint assimilation strongly depends on the chosen assimilation methods, measurement and model error spatial structures. The optimization of the assimilation technique constitutes a fundamental step toward a multi-variate multi-resolution integrative assimilation system aiming to improve our understanding of the global terrestrial water cycle.

Soil Moisture↗

Sea surface temperatures from VAS MSI data

A procedure is developed for estimating sea surface temperatures from multispectral image data acquired from the VISSR atmospheric sounder on the geostationary GOES satellites. Theoretical regression equations for two and three infrared window channels are empirically tuned using clear field of view satellite radiances matched with reports of SST from NOAA fixed environmental buoys. The empirical regression equations are then used to produce daily regional analyses of SST. Monthly mean SST's for the western North Atlantic and the eastern equatorial Pacific during March and July 1982 were produced for use in the SST Intercomparison Workshop Series. Workshop results showed VAS SST's have a scatter of 0.8-1.0 C and a slight warm bias with respect to the other measurements of SST. The VAS SST's show no discernible bias in the region of El Chichon volcanic aerosol cloud.

Bates, J. J.↗

Measuring electron temperature in the extended corona

A technique for measuring electron temperature in the extended corona from the line profile of the electron scattered component of coronal H I Ly alpha produced by Thomson scattering of chromospheric Ly alpha emission is discussed. Because of the high thermal velocity of electrons at coronal temperatures (approximately 6800 km/s at T(sub e) = 1,500,000 K) the effect of nonthermal velocities and solar wind flows on the electron velocity distribution are negligible. However, the low electron mass which is responsible for the high thermal velocity also results in a very wide profile (approximately equal to 50 A). This wide profile, together with an intensity that is three orders of magnitude weaker than the resonantly scattered component of Ly alpha makes the direct measurement of T(sub e) a challenging observational problem. An evaluation of this technique based on simulated measurements is presented and the subsequent instrumental requirements necessary to make a meaningful determination of the electron temperature are discussed. Estimates of uncertainties in the measured electron temperature are related to critical instrument parameters such as grating stray light suppression.

Hassler, Donald M.↗

Temperature dependence of ultraviolet absorption cross-sections of alternative hydrochlorofluorocarbons

Ultraviolet absorption cross-section of six alternative hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-21 HCFC-22, HCFC-123, HCFC-124, HCFC-141b and HCFC-142b1) have been measured between 170 and 260 nm for temperature ranging from 210 to 295 K. These data are compared with other available determinations performed at room temperature and their temperature dependence is discussed. Photodissociation coefficients are estimated and their temperature dependence is discussed. Impact of the photodissociation on the total atmospheric destruction of these compounds is illustrated.

Gillotay, D.↗

Titania and Oberon: Surface Composition from New Near-Infrared Observations and Reflectance Models

Here we report the combination of new near-ir spectra (1.45-2.48 micrometers), of Titania and Oberon obtained in September 1995 at a resolving power of approx. 800, with older near-ir observations (0.5- 1.44 micrometers), and recent UV (0.22-0.48 micrometers) observations obtained with HST. Previous interpretations suggest these surfaces are chiefly composed of water ice and varying amounts of spectrally neutral material. The new near-ir data provide the opportunity to search for absorption bands that could be attributable to surface materials other than water ice and because the combined spectra include such a broad wavelength region, to undertake improved models of water and neutral components on the surface. The calculated near-ir geometric albedos clearly exhibit three broad spectral features. Two (1.52- & 2.05 micrometer) have previously been used to demonstrate the presence of water ice on these satellites. The third (approx. 1.65 micrometer), suggests the presence of hexagonal water ice at low temperatures, and may provide a mechanism of estimating the surface temperature. There is no spectral evidence for ices of CO2, CO, NH3 or CH4. At UV wavelengths there is a broad absorption near 0.27-0.28 micrometer previously attributed to OH formed by magnetospheric-surface interactions and retained at the low surface temperatures of these satellites. Surface components used in a Hapke scattering models include values for a combination of irradiated water ice in the UV and hexagonal water ice at 100k in the near-ir (IR), amorphous carbon (AC), and tholins (T) (produced from gas and solid). Results of these models suggest the surfaces of Titania/Oberon are composed of IW (-77/52%) with AC the next most abundant component (approx. 19/52%) and finally T (approx. 4/7%).

Roush, Ted L.↗