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NASA NTRS2006

Retrieval of Latent Heating from TRMM Measurements

Precipitation, in driving the global hydrological cycle, strongly influences the behavior of the Earth's weather and climate systems and is central to their variability. Two-thirds of the global rainfall occurs over the Tropics, which leads to its profound effect on the general circulation of the atmosphere. This is because its energetic equivalent, latent heating (LH), is the tropical convective heat engine's primary fuel source as originally emphasized by Riehl and Malkus (1958). At low latitudes, LH stemming from extended bands of rainfall modulates large-scale zonal and meridional circulations and their consequent mass overturnings (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984; Hack and Schubert 1990). Also, LH is the principal energy source in the creation, growth, vertical structure, and propagation of long-lived tropical waves (e.g., Puri 1987; Lau and Chan 1988). Moreover, the distinct vertical distribution properties of convective and stratiform LH profiles help influence climatic outcomes via their tight control on large-scale circulations (Lau and Peng 1987; Nakazawa 1988; Sui and Lau 1988; Emanuel et al. 1994; Yanai et al. 2000; Sumi and Nakazawa 2002; Schumacher et al. 2004). The purpose of this paper is to describe how LH profiles are being derived from satellite precipitation rate retrievals, focusing on those being made with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite measurements.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Calibration and Characterization of Earth Remote Sensing and Environmental Monitoring Instruments

The use of remote sensing instruments on orbiting satellite platforms in the study of Earth Science and environmental monitoring was officially inaugurated with the April 1, 1960 launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) [1]. The first TIROS accommodated two television cameras and operated for only 78 days. However, the TIROS program, in providing in excess of 22,000 pictures of the Earth, achieved its primary goal of providing Earth images from a satellite platform to aid in identifying and monitoring meteorological processes. This marked the beginning of what is now over four decades of Earth observations from satellite platforms. reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth using instruments on satellite platforms. These measurements are input to climate models, and the model results are analyzed in an effort to detect short and long-term changes and trends in the Earth's climate and environment, to identify the cause of those changes, and to predict or influence future changes. Examples of short-term climate change events include the periodic appearance of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean [2] and the spectacular eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the Philippine island of Luzon in 1991. Examples of long term climate change events, which are more subtle to detect, include the destruction of coral reefs, the disappearance of glaciers, and global warming. Climatic variability can be both large and small scale and can be caused by natural or anthropogenic processes. The periodic El Nino event is an example of a natural process which induces significant climatic variability over a wide range of the Earth. A classic example of a large scale anthropogenic influence on climate is the well-documented rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide occurring since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [3]. An example of the study of a small-scale anthropogenic influence in climate variability is the Atlanta Land-use Analysis Temperature and Air-quality (ATLANTA) project [4]. This project has found that the replacement of trees and vegetation with concrete and asphalt in Atlanta, Georgia, and its environs has created a microclimate capable of producing wind and thunderstorms. A key objective of climate research is to be able to distinguish the natural versus human roles in climate change and to clearly communicate those findings to those who shape and direct environmental policy.

Butler, James J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

How Consistent are Recent Variations in the Tropical Energy and Water Cycle Resolved by Satellite Measurements?

One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Response of Lower Atmospheric Ozone to ENSO in Aura Measurements and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent work has revealed an ENSO-induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this feature using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show composition sensitivity in observations from NASA s Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) and a simulation to provide insight into the vertical structure of these ENSO-induced ozone changes. The ozone changes due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the extra-polar upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in MLS measurements will also be discussed.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Simulation of the Intraseasonal Variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in Climate Models

During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode. Further analysis illustrates that the observed 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC is closely linked to the eastward propagating ISV signals from the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific, which is in agreement with the general impression that the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC could be a local expression of the global Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In contrast, the convective signals associated with the 40-day mode over the EPAC in most of the GCM simulations tend to originate between 150degE and 150degW, suggesting the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC might be sustained without the forcing by the eastward propagating MJO. Further investigation is warranted towards improved understanding of the origin of the ISV over the EPAC.

Intraseasonal Variability↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analysis Using Satellite Observations

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) observations are reviewed in the context of weather and climate applications. All the data sets discussed are the result of mergers of information from multiple satellites and gauges, where available. The focus of the talk is on TRMM-based 3 hr. analyses that use TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3 hr. resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) at the end of 2002. A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg N-50 deg S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and in relating weather-scale patterns to climate-scale patterns. The 3-hourly analysis is placed in the context of two research products of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The first is the 23 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis that is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant global trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 23 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. Also shown is the GPCP daily, 1 deg latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present. Plans to incorporate the TRMM data and 3-hourly analysis into the GPCP products are outlined. The outcome should be an improved global analysis and climatology on monthly scales for the 23 year period and finer time scale analyses for more recent periods, including real-time 3-hourly (or finer) analyses over much of the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2001

TRMM Data Assimilation at NASA

We give an overview of the research at NASA in assimilating tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments. Global analyses currently contain order-one errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. We show that an effective strategy to assimilate tropical rainfall data is to use observations to compensate for errors in moisture tendencies produced by the assimilation model. Results show that assimilating TMI and SSM/I surface rainrates and TPW estimates improves shortrange forecasts and reduces state-dependent systematic errors in the hydrological cycle and related climate parameters such as cloud, radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. The study provides a demonstration of the potential of using rainfall and moisture observations derived from passive microwave instruments to improve the quality of 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Inter-annual variation of tropical cyclones simulated by GEOS-5 AGCM with modified convection scheme

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model with a 50-km horizontal resolution is forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) to examine the fidelity of the seasonal-mean and inter-annual variation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the North Atlantic (NATL). The standard Relaxed Arakawa Schubert (RAS) deep convection scheme is modified to improve the representation of TCs, where the scheme implements a stochastic limit of the cumulus entrainment rate. The modification drives mid- and upper-tropospheric cooling and low- to mid-tropospheric drying in the background state, which tends to increase atmospheric instability. This enables the model to increase convective variability on an intra-seasonal timescale and improve the simulation of intense storms. Five-member ensemble runs with the modified RAS scheme for 12 years (1998–2009) exhibit realistic spatial distributions in the climatological-mean TC development area and their pathways over WNP and NATL. The GCM is able to reproduce the inter-annual variation of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) by prescribing yearly varying observed SST even though the individual TC intensity is still underpredicted. A sensitivity of TC activity to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase is also reproduced realistically over WNP in terms of the spatial pattern changes in the main development region and TC pathways. However, the model exhibits a notable deficiency in NATL in reproducing the observed inter-annual variation of TC activity and the sensitivity to the ENSO.

accumulated cyclone energy↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ice Nucleation and Dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

Optically thin cirrus near the tropical tropopause regulate the humidity of air entering the stratosphere, which in turn has a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget and climate. Recent highaltitude, unmanned aircraft measurements provide evidence for two distinct classes of cirrus formed in the tropical tropopause region: (i) vertically extensive cirrus with low ice number concentrations, low extinctions, and large supersaturations (up to approx. 70%) with respect to ice; and (ii) vertically thin cirrus layers with much higher ice concentrations that effectively deplete the vapor in excess of saturation. The persistent supersaturation in the former class of cirrus is consistent with the long time-scales (several hours or longer) for quenching of vapor in excess of saturation given the low ice concentrations and cold tropical tropopause temperatures. The low-concentration clouds are likely formed on a background population of insoluble particles with concentrations less than 100 L−1 (often less than 20 L−1), whereas the high ice concentration layers (with concentrations up to 10,000 L−1) can only be produced by homogeneous freezing of an abundant population of aqueous aerosols. These measurements, along with past high-altitude aircraft measurements, indicate that the low-concentration cirrus occur frequently in the tropical tropopause region, whereas the high-concentration cirrus occur infrequently. The predominance of the low-concentration clouds means cirrus near the tropical tropopause may typically allow entry of air into the stratosphere with as much as approx. 1.7 times the ice saturation mixing ratio.

dehydration↗
NASA NTRS1985

Understanding climate: A strategy for climate modeling and predictability research, 1985-1995

The emphasis of the NASA strategy for climate modeling and predictability research is on the utilization of space technology to understand the processes which control the Earth's climate system and it's sensitivity to natural and man-induced changes and to assess the possibilities for climate prediction on time scales of from about two weeks to several decades. Because the climate is a complex multi-phenomena system, which interacts on a wide range of space and time scales, the diversity of scientific problems addressed requires a hierarchy of models along with the application of modern empirical and statistical techniques which exploit the extensive current and potential future global data sets afforded by space observations. Observing system simulation experiments, exploiting these models and data, will also provide the foundation for the future climate space observing system, e.g., Earth observing system (EOS), 1985; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) North, et al. NASA, 1984.

Thiele, O.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The East Asian Jet Stream and its Climate Impact

In this talk, I will present results from an analysis of the winter westerly jet stream over East Asia. The variability of the jet and its teleconnection to other climate subsystems such as the Asian winter monsoon, ENSO, and tropical convection will be focused. The role of external forcing and the predictability of the jet will be assessed using models. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, NASA GPCP data, and results from experiments with the NASA GOES-2 general circulation model will be studied.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS2000

Comments on "The Sensitivity Study of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium in the Tropics with a Convective Resolving Model"

In general, there are two broad scientific objectives when using cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) to study tropical convection. The first one is to use them as a physics resolving models to understand the dynamic and microphysical processes associated with the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The second approach is to use the CRMs to improve the representation of moist processes and their interaction with radiation in large-scale models. In order to improve the credibility of the CRMs and achieve the above goals, CRMs using identical initial conditions and large-scale influences need to produce very similar results. Two CRMs produced different statistical equilibrium (SE) states even though both used the same initial thermodynamic and wind conditions. Sensitivity tests to identify the major physical processes that determine the SE states for the different CRM simulations were performed. Their results indicated that atmospheric horizontal wind is treated quite differently in these two CRMs. The model that had stronger surface winds and consequently larger latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean produced a warmer and more humid modeled thermodynamic SE state. In addition, the domain mean thermodynamic state is more unstable for those experiments that produced a warmer and more humid SE state. Their simulated wet (warm and humid) SE states are thermally more stable in the lower troposphere (from the surface to 4-5 km in altitude). The large-scale horizontal advective effects on temperature and water vapor mixing ratio are needed when using CRMs to perform long-term integrations to study convective feedback under specified large-scale environments. In addition, it is suggested that the dry and cold SE state simulated was caused by enhanced precipitation but not enough surface evaporation. We find some problems with the interpretation of these three phenomena.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Comparison of TWP-ICE Satellite and Field Campaign Aircraft Derived Cloud Properties

Cloud and radiation products derived from the MTSAT-1R satellite have been developed for TWP-ICE. These include pixel-level, gridded, and ground site and aircraft matched. These products are available from the Langley website and the ARM data center. As shown in Figs 2, and 4-6, these products compare favorably with in-situ ground and aircraft based measurements. With additional quantitative validation these products can provide valuable information about tropical convection and its impact on the radiation budget and climate. As new algorithm improvements, such as multi-layer cloud detection, are implemented these products will be reprocessed and updated.

Ayers, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study

A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.

El Nino↗
NASA NTRS2017

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget from a Multi-Model Perspective

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

Rainfall↗
NASA NTRS2018

Satellite Observations and Modeling to Understand the Lower Mekong River Basin Streamflow Variability

In this work, we have used the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to examine streamflow variability of the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) associated with changes in the Upper Mekong River Basin (UMRB) inflows. Two hypothetical experiments were formulated and evaluated for the LMRB, where we conducted runoff simulations with multiple inflow changes that include upstream runoff yield increase and decrease scenarios. Streamflow variability of the LMRB was quantified by two streamflow metrics that explain flow variability and predictability, and high flow disturbance. The model experiments were performed for the Lower Mekong River Basin with identical climate, soil, and other watershed characteristics data. Remote sensing precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, TRMM, and Global Precipitation Measurement mission, GPM), meteorological data as well as spatial data that include a digital elevation model, newly developed soil information (Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD), and land use and land cover were processed as input to the LMRB model simulations. Observed daily streamflow data along the Lower Mekong River from Chiang Sean, Thailand to Kratie, Cambodia were used for calibration and validation. Our work results suggest that the Lower Mekong River streamflow is highly variable and has a low predictability (Colwell index of about 32%). We found that releasing more water from upstream Mekong during rainfall months by 30% would result in a reduction in the Lower Mekong streamflow predictability by about 21%. This reduction in predictability is mainly attributed to a decrease in the Contingency index. Our work shows that the ability to predict floods/droughts at the Lower Mekong River would be reduced if there is any anticipated change (i.e., increase/decrease) from UMRB releases. Our results also show that releasing more flows from the upstream Mekong would also affect flood duration and the frequency of flood occurrences downstream. The results of this work thus help to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow variability at the Lower Mekong River Basin to upstream anthropogenic changes.

Streamflow Predictability↗
NASA NTRS2021

The impact of increasing stratospheric radiative damping on the quasi-biennial oscillation period

Stratospheric radiative damping increases as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration rises. We use the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to conduct sensitivity experiments and find that the simulated QBO period shortens due to the enhancing of radiative damping in the stratosphere. This result suggests that increasing stratospheric radiative damping due to rising CO2 may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity, both of which also respond to increasing CO2.

Stratospheric Radiative Damping↗