Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Variance to Mean”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Seasonal and interannual variations in total ozone revealed by the Nimbus-4 backscattered ultraviolet experiment

The first two years of Backscattered Ultraviolet (BUV) ozone data from the Nimbus-4 spacecraft were reprocessed. The seasonal variations of total ozone for the period April 1970 to April 1972 are described using daily zonal means to 10 deg latitude zones and a time-latitude cross section. In addition, the BUV data are compared with analyzed Dobson data and with IRIS data also obtained from the Nimbus-4 spacecraft. A harmonic analysis was performed on the daily zonal means. Amplitudes, days of peaks, and percentage of variance were computed for annual and semi-annual waves and for higher harmonics of an annual period for the two years. Asymmetries are found in the annual waves in the two hemispheres, with a subtle interannual difference which may be due to changes in the general circulation. A significant semi-annual component is detected in the tropics for the first year, which appears to result from influences of the annual waves in the two hemispheres.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

Theoretical model for VITA-educed coherent structures in the wall region of a turbulent boundary layer

Experiments on wall-bounded shear flows (channel flows and boundary layers) have indicated that the turbulence in the region close to the wall exhibits a characteristic intermittently formed pattern of coherent structures. For a quantitative study of coherent structures it is necessary to make use of conditional sampling. One particularly successful sampling technique is the Variable Integration Time Averaging technique (VITA) first explored by Blackwelder and Kaplan (1976). In this, an event is assumed to occur when the short time variance exceeds a certain threshold multiple of the mean square signal. The analysis presented removes some assumptions in the earlier models in that the effects of pressure and viscosity are taken into account in an approximation based on the assumption that the near-wall structures are highly elongated in the streamwise direction. The appropriateness of this is suggested by the observations but is also self consistent with the results of the model which show that the streamwise dimension of the structure grows with time, so that the approximation should improve with the age of the structure.

Landahl, Marten T.↗

Estimations of model parameters for gravity wave spectra observed by MST radar

The general theory of MST radar observations of gravity wave spectra is developed. This effort extends the previous results to include anisotropy and Doppler effects for the spectra, as well as the consequences for the multibeam configuration. The relationships between the observed one- or two-dimensional spectra for the line-of-sight velocity in the gravity wave spectra are derived. Expressions for cross spectra, as well as covariances between velocities observed on different beams, are computed. Using these results, studies are carried out to show how model parameters for gravity wave spectra can be estimated from the observed quantities. Model parameters include the variance, power law indices, anisotropy parameters, Doppler parameters, mean scale sizes, etc. Cases with different numbers of beams are investigated.

Scheffler, A. O.↗

Evidence for the presence of quasi-two-dimensional nearly incompressible fluctuations in the solar wind

Assuming that the slab and isotropic models of solar wind turbulence need modification (largely due to the observed anisotropy of the interplanetary fluctuations and the results of laboratory plasma experiments), this paper proposes a model of the solar wind. The solar wind is seen as a fluid which contains both classical transverse Alfvenic fluctuations and a population of quasi-transverse fluctuations. In quasi-two-dimensional turbulence, the pitch angle scattering by resonant wave-particle interactions is suppressed, and the direction of minimum variance of interplanetary fluctuations is parallel to the mean magnetic field. The assumed incompressibility is consistent with the fact that the density fluctuations are small and anticorrelated, and that the total pressure at small scales is nearly constant.

Matthaeus, William H.↗

Toward a More Robust Pruning Procedure for MLP Networks

Choosing a proper neural network architecture is a problem of great practical importance. Smaller models mean not only simpler designs but also lower variance for parameter estimation and network prediction. The widespread utilization of neural networks in modeling highlights an issue in human factors. The procedure of building neural models should find an appropriate level of model complexity in a more or less automatic fashion to make it less prone to human subjectivity. In this paper we present a Singular Value Decomposition based node elimination technique and enhanced implementation of the Optimal Brain Surgeon algorithm. Combining both methods creates a powerful pruning engine that can be used for tuning feedforward connectionist models. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by adjusting the structure of a multi-input multi-output model used to calibrate a six-component wind tunnel strain gage.

Stepniewski, Slawomir W.↗

Free Vibration of Uncertain Unsymmetrically Laminated Beams

Monte Carlo Simulation and Stochastic FEA are used to predict randomness in the free vibration response of thin unsymmetrically laminated beams. For the present study, it is assumed that randomness in the response is only caused by uncertainties in the ply orientations. The ply orientations may become random or uncertain during the manufacturing process. A new 16-dof beam element, based on the first-order shear deformation beam theory, is used to study the stochastic nature of the natural frequencies. Using variational principles, the element stiffness matrix and mass matrix are obtained through analytical integration. Using a random sequence a large data set is generated, containing possible random ply-orientations. This data is assumed to be symmetric. The stochastic-based finite element model for free vibrations predicts the relation between the randomness in fundamental natural frequencies and the randomness in ply-orientation. The sensitivity derivatives are calculated numerically through an exact formulation. The squared fundamental natural frequencies are expressed in terms of deterministic and probabilistic quantities, allowing to determine how sensitive they are to variations in ply angles. The predicted mean-valued fundamental natural frequency squared and the variance of the present model are in good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulation. Results, also, show that variations between plus or minus 5 degrees in ply-angles can affect free vibration response of unsymmetrically and symmetrically laminated beams.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

The Effects of Long-Term Feeding of Rodent Food Bars on Lipid Peroxidation And Antioxidant Enzyme Levels In Fisher Rats

A specialized rodent food bar diet has been developed and utilized successfully for short-duration shuttle missions. Recent tests conducted in preparation for experiments aboard the International Space Station (ISS) indicated that long-term food bar feeding for three months induced hyperlipidemia in rats. This study examined oxidative stress status in livers of these same animals. Spectrophotometric analysis of 79 Fischer rat livers (40 female and 39 male) for lipid peroxidation (LPO) and superoxide dismutase (SOD) was conducted using Bioxytech LPO-587(TM) assay kit and SOD-525(Tm) assay kit, respectively. The treatment groups consisted of 20 male CHOW and 19 male FOOD BAR rats and 20 female CHOW and 20 female FOOD BAR rats. Statistical analysis to compare differences between groups was performed by standard analysis of variance procedures. The male FOOD BAR group LPO mean (3.6 +/- 0.2 mmol/g) was significantly (p less than or equal to 0.05) greater than that of the male CHOW group (2.1 +/-0.1 mmol/g). Moreover the female FOOD BAR group LPO mean (2.9 +/-0.1 mmol/g) was also significantly greater than the female CHOW group mean (2.2 +/-0.1 mmol/g). The mean values for SOD in both male and female groups showed no significant differences between CHOW and FOOD BAR groups. These results show that LPO levels were significantly higher in both the male and female FOOD BAR groups compared to CHOW groups and that there was no concomitant increase in SOD levels across the group. In addition, males showed a greater difference than females in terms of LPO levels. These findings suggest a need for further investigation into the use of the current food bar formulation for long-term experiments such as those planned for the ISS.

Ramirez, Joel↗

Robust Design Under Uncertainty of Hypersonic Inlets

The objective of this work is to optimize scramjet inlet designs under uncertainty at multiple fidelity levels. Optimizations are performed for both deterministic and stochastic conditions. For stochastic conditions, robust design is used to minimize the variance in system performance in addition to optimizing mean system performance. Uncertainty quantification is performed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. Comparisons are made between low-fidelity analysis and high-fidelity analysis, as well as deterministic optimization and robust optimization. Results indicate that the general design trend of previous inlet optimization techniques is recovered for the external compression portion of an inlet. For the internal compression portion of an inlet, when viscous effects become more significant and boundary layer separation becomes more likely, the optimal trend departs from previous results. Multifidelity uncertainty quantification methods are found to substantially reduce the computation time of robust design while obtaining results that nearly match those of high-fidelity analysis. Robust optimization is found to decrease the standard deviation of throat Mach number by up to 40% compared to deterministic optimization. Changes in the design variables and total turning that lead to robust scramjet inlets are identified and linked back to fundamental physical principles through the theta-beta-Mach function.

Hypersonic↗

The Impacts of Freshwater Input and Surface Wind Velocity on the Strength and Extent of a Large High Latitude River Plume

Arctic Ocean physical and biogeochemical properties are strongly influenced by freshwater input from land and through the Bering Strait, where the mean currents transport water northward from the Bering Sea. The Yukon River is one of the largest rivers in North America and the Arctic, contributing large quantities of freshwater and terrigenous material to the coastal ocean in the northern Bering Sea. However, a detailed analysis of the coastal hydrodynamics at the outflow of the river has not been conducted in this remote but regionally important river. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was built to represent the lower Yukon River and coastal ocean for the ice-free months in 7 years. On average, a large anticyclonic eddy persisted at the main outflow of the Yukon that recirculates water back toward the coast where the currents converge to form a mean northward transport along the delta. Interannual spatial variance in salinity was relatively small, while there was substantial variance in u and v current velocity. u velocity spatial variance was correlated to the volume of freshwater discharge across years, while v velocity spatial variance was correlated to the N–S wind velocity. During strong wind events, plume structure was substantially altered: southerly winds deepened the plume and enhanced northward transport, while northerly winds shoaled and strengthened the pycnocline, and reversed the flow toward the south. The variability in plume dispersion on short time scales due to wind forcing has implications for where terrigenous material is processed in and settles out of the water column.

river plume↗

MJO in Different Orbital Regimes: Role of the Mean State in the MJO’s Amplitude during Boreal Winter

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) exhibits pronounced seasonality, with one of the key unanswered questions being the following: what controls the maximum in MJO precipitation variance in the Southern Hemisphere during boreal winter? In this study, we examine a set of global climate model simulations in which the eccentricity and precession of Earth’s orbit are altered to change the boreal winter mean state in an attempt to reveal the processes that are responsible for the MJO’s amplitude in the boreal winter. In response to the forced insolation changes, the north–south asymmetry in sea surface temperature is amplified in boreal fall, which intensifies the Hadley circulation in boreal winter. The stronger Hadley circulation yields higher mean precipitation and stronger mean lower-tropospheric westerlies in the southern part of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The MJO precipitation variability increases significantly where the mean precipitation and lower-tropospheric westerlies strengthen. In the column-integrated moisture budget of the simulated MJO, only surface latent heat flux feedback shows a trend that is consistent with the MJO’s amplitude, suggesting an important role for the surface latent heat flux feedback in the MJO’s amplitude during the boreal winter. An analysis of the moisture–precipitation relationship in the simulations shows that the increase in the mean precipitation lowers the convective moisture adjustment time scale, leading to the increase in precipitation variance. Our results suggest that the mean-state precipitation plays a critical role in the maintenance mechanism of the MJO.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Ice Supersaturation Variability in Cirrus Clouds: Role of Vertical Wind Speeds and Deposition Coefficients

Abstract Aircraft measurements reveal ice supersaturation statistics in cirrus (ISSs) with broad maxima around ice saturation and pronounced variance. In this study, processes shaping ISSs in midlatitude and tropical upper tropospheric conditions are systematically investigated. Water vapor deposition and sublimation of size‐resolved ice crystal populations are simulated in an air parcel framework. Mesoscale temperature fluctuations (MTFs) due to gravity waves force the temporal evolution of supersaturation. Various levels of background wave forcing and cirrus thickness are distinguished in stochastic ensemble simulations. Kinetic limitations to ice mass growth are brought about by supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients that represent efficient and inefficient growth modes as a function of ice crystal size. The simulations identify a wide range of deposition coefficients in cirrus, but most values stay above 0.01 such that kinetic limitations to water uptake remain moderate. Supersaturation quenching times are long, typically 0.5–2 hr. The wave forcing thus causes a remarkably large variability in ISSs and cirrus microphysical properties except in the thickest cirrus, producing ensemble‐mean ISSs in line with in‐situ measurements. ISS variance is controlled by MTFs and increases with decreasing cirrus integral radii. In comparison, the impact of ice crystal growth rates on ISSs is small. These results contribute to efforts directed at identifying and solving issues associated with ice‐supersaturated areas and non‐equilibrium cirrus physics in global models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Deep learning to estimate permeability using geophysical data

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a popular geophysical method to estimate three-dimensional (3D) permeability fields from electrical potential difference measurements. Traditional inversion and data assimilation methods are used to ingest this ERT data into hydrogeophysical models to estimate permeability. Due to ill-posedness and the curse of dimensionality, existing inversion strategies provide poor estimates and low resolution of the 3D permeability field. Recent advances in deep learning provide us with powerful algorithms to overcome this challenge. This paper presents a deep learning (DL) framework to estimate the 3D subsurface permeability from time-lapse ERT data. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we train DL-enabled inverse models on simulation data. Each measurement in both synthetic and field data is standardized by removing the mean and scaling the time-series to unit variance. This pre-processing step is necessary to bring simulation data closer to field observations. Subsurface process models based on hydrogeophysics are used to generate this synthetic data. Training performed on limited simulation data resulted in the DL model over-fitting. An advanced data augmentation based on mixup is implemented to generate additional training samples to overcome this issue. This mixup technique creates weakly labeled (low-fidelity) samples from strongly labeled (high-fidelity) data. The weakly labeled training data is then used to develop DL-enabled inverse models and reduce over-fitting. As both time-lapse ERT (1133048 features/realization) and 3D permeability (585453 features/realization) data samples are from a high-dimensional space, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce dimensionality. Encoded ERT and encoded permeability are generated using the trained PCA estimators. A deep neural network is then trained to map the encoded ERT to encoded permeability. This mixup training and unsupervised learning allowed us to build a fast and reasonably accurate DL-based inverse model under limited simulation data. Results show that proposed weak supervised learning can capture salient spatial features in the 3D permeability field. Quantitatively, the average mean squared error (in terms of the natural log) on the strongly labeled training, validation, and test datasets is less than 0.5. The R 2 -score (global metric) is greater than 0.75, and the percent error in each cell (local metric) is less than 10%. Finally, an added benefit in terms of computational cost is that the proposed DL-based inverse model is at least O(10 4 ) times faster than running a forward model once it is trained. Data generation, DL model training, and hyperparameter tuning to identify optimal neural network architectures utilized high-performance computing resources while the DL inference is performed on a standard laptop. Approximately, O(10 5 ) processor hours are used for generating data and DL tuning and training. We acknowledge that the data generation and DL model development are expensive. But once a DL model is trained, it can be re-used for inversion rapidly for the given system, with set physics and domain. Note that traditional inversion may require multiple forward model simulations (e.g., in the order of 10 to 1000), which are very expensive. This computational savings ≈ O(10 5 ) – O(10 7 )) makes the proposed DL-based inverse model attractive for subsurface imaging and real-time ERT monitoring applications due to fast and yet reasonably accurate estimations of permeability field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seasonal variations of total ozone revealed by the Nimbus-4 BUV data set

Backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) data from the Nimbus-4 spacecraft for the period 1970-1977 have been processed to a refined level. The seasonal and interannual variations of total ozone are examined on a global scale, using daily zonal means of 10 deg latitude bands and a time-latitude cross section. A harmonic analysis was performed on the daily zonal means and the amplitude, days of peak ozone values, and percentage of variance were computed for the annual, semiannual and higer harmonics for several years and each year. A clear quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was revealed from the tropics to midlatitudes after removing the mean annual wave. Asymmetries in the annual wave in the two hemispheres found earlier for the period 1970-1972 persist through the entire observation period. Interannual variations appear to be the result of the QBO of ozone from low to midlatitudes. Asymmetries in the QBO amplitude phase, and period were also detected in the two hemispheres.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Vertical Velocity under Shallow Cumulus

Vertical velocity distribution below cloud is one of the key determinants of cloud life cycle, but observations of this variable are extremely sparse in space. Doppler lidar retrievals and large-eddy simulations at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility Southern Great Plains site are used to determine whether vertical velocity statistics from temporally dense profiles at a single location can be substituted for spatial vertical velocity statistics. We show that even a small number (five) of widely distributed [ O (1°) latitude/longitude spacing] lidars is sufficient sampling to reconstruct domainwide spatial vertical velocity variance, but not higher moments of the vertical velocity distribution. Spatial and temporal vertical velocity variances in the Doppler lidar observations are nearly interchangeable as long as the spatial variance is temporally averaged and the temporal variance is averaged across lidars. This is true even though the dominant spatial scales of vertical velocity variability are ≲ 3 km, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the spacing between the lidars. Further, in the limit where the temporal variance does not vary across a spatial domain (e.g., if the meteorological and surface forcing of the atmospheric turbulence is homogeneous across the domain) and the domain-mean vertical velocity is zero, the commonly available retrieval of temporal vertical velocity variance at one site is equivalent to the spatial variance over the domain. We use an updraft parcel model to show that substituting temporal for spatial vertical velocity statistics will have a relatively minor effect on cloud droplet number concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Analysis of Temperature-Strain Relationships for Structural Health Monitoring of Pipes: Self-powered wireless sensor system for health monitoring of liquid-sodium cooled fast reactors

This report presents machine learning (ML) analysis of temperature-strain relationships for structural health monitoring of nuclear reactor stainless steel (SS) pipes with the strain gauge sensor directly printed on the pipe with a 3D conformal aerosol jet printer. We investigate correlations for two sensor pairs installed on the same SS304 pipe: commercial K-type thermocouple with a printed gold strain gauge (TC3-SG3), and commercial K-type thermocouple with commercial Kyowa strain gauge (TC0-SG0). The temperature ranges for the sensor pairs TC0-SG0 and TC3-SG3 are 20.00°C to 266.37°C and 39.95°C to 219.28°C respectively. ML algorithms in this study include Linear Regression (baseline method), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Gradient Boosting. Performance evaluation metrics include Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R 2 Score, and Explained Variance. Using advanced feature engineering techniques, we extracted 27 temperature-based features and 30 strategic inclusion features. The best performance was obtained with the Gradient Boosting method, which achieves prediction accuracy of R 2 = 0.9999 and RMSE = 7.69 μStrain for TC0-SG0, and R 2 = 0.9998 and RMSE = 18.03 μStrain for TC3-SG3. While the temperature-strain correlations are weaker for the gauge directly printed on the pipe than for the commercial strain gauge, deployment-ready performance exceeding industry standards is achieved for both sensor pairs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of SLAR and thematic mapper MSS data for forest cover mapping using computer-aided analysis techniques

Supervised and cluster block training statistics were used to analyze the thematic mapper simulation MSS data (both 1979 and 1980 data sets). Cover information classes identified on SAR imagery include: hardwood, pine, mixed pine hardwood, clearcut, pasture, crops, emergent crops, bare soil, urban, and water. Preliminary analysis of the HH and HV polarized SAR data indicate a high variance associated with each information class except for water and bare soil. The large variance for most spectral classes suggests that while the means might be statistically separable, an overlap may exist between the classes which could introduce a significant classification error. The quantitative values of many cover types are much larger on the HV polarization than on the HH, thereby indicating the relative nature of the digitized data values. The mean values of the spectral classes in the areas with larger look angles are greater than the means of the same cover type in other areas having steeper look angles. Difficulty in accurately overlaying the dual polarization of the SAR data was resolved.

Hoffer, R. M.↗

Cycle-Powered Short Radius (1.9 m) Centrifuge: Effect of Exercise Versus Passive Acceleration on Heart Rate in Humans

In addition to extensive use of lower extremity physical exercise training as a countermeasure for the work capacity component of spaceflight deconditioning, some form of additional head-to-foot (+Gz) gravitational (orthostatic) stress may be required to further attenuate or prevent the signs and symptoms (nausea, vertigo, instability, fatigue) of the general reentry syndrome (GRS) that can reduce astronaut performance during landing. Orthostatic (head-to-foot) stress can be induced by standing, by lower body negative pressure, and by +Gz acceleration. One important question is whether acceleration training alone or with concurrent leg exercise would provide sufficient additive stimulation to attenuate the GRS. Use of a new human-powered centrifuge may be the answer. Thus, the purpose for this study was to compare heart rate (HR), i.e., a stress response during human-powered acceleration, in four men (35-62 yr) and two women (30-31 yr) during exercise acceleration versus passive acceleration (by an off-board operator) at 100% (maximal acceleration = A(max)), and at 25%, 50%, and 75% of A(max). Mean (+/-SE) A(max) was 43.7 +/- 1.3 rpm (+3.9 +/- 0.2Gz). Mean HR at exercise A(max) was 189 +/- 13 b/min (50-70 sec run time), and 142 +/- 22 b/min at passive A(max) (40-70 sec run time). Regression of mean HR on the various +Gz levels indicated explained variance (correlations squared) of r(exp 2) = 0.88 (exercise) and r(exp 2) = 0.96 (passive): exercise HR of 107 +/- 4 (25%) to 189 +/- 13 (100%) b/min were 43-50 b/min higher (p less than 0.05) than comparable passive HR of 64 +/- 2 to 142 +/- 22 b/min. Thus, exercise adds significant physiological stress during +Gz acceleration. Inflight use of this combined exercise and acceleration countermeasure may maintain work capacity as well as normalize acceleration and orthostatic tolerances which could attenuate or perhaps eliminate the GRS.

Greenleaf, J. E.↗

Analysis of Physical Properties of Dust Suspended in the Mars Atmosphere

Methods for iteratively determining the infrared optical constants for dust suspended in the Mars atmosphere are described. High quality spectra for wavenumbers from 200 to 2000 1/cm were obtained over a wide range of view angles by the Mariner 9 spacecraft, when it observed a global Martian dust storm in 1971-2. In this research, theoretical spectra of the emergent intensity from Martian dust clouds are generated using a 2-stream source-function radiative transfer code. The code computes the radiation field in a plane-parallel, vertically homogeneous, multiply scattering atmosphere. Calculated intensity spectra are compared with the actual spacecraft data to iteratively retrieve the optical properties and opacity of the dust, as well as the surface temperature of Mars at the time and location of each measurement. Many different particle size distributions a-re investigated to determine the best fit to the data. The particles are assumed spherical and the temperature profile was obtained from the CO2 band shape. Given a reasonable initial guess for the indices of refraction, the searches converge in a well-behaved fashion, producing a fit with error of less than 1.2 K (rms) to the observed brightness spectra. The particle size distribution corresponding to the best fit was a lognormal distribution with a mean particle radius, r(sub m) 0.66 pm, and variance, omega(sup 2) = 0.412 (r(sub eff) = 1.85 microns, v(sub eff) =.51), in close agreement with the size distribution found to be the best fit in the visible wavelengths in recent studies. The optical properties and the associated single scattering properties are shown to be a significant improvement over those used in existing models by demonstrating the effects of the new properties both on heating rates of the Mars atmosphere and in example spectral retrieval of surface characteristics from emission spectra.

Snook, Kelly↗