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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Intrinsic Fiber Optic Temperature Sensors by In-core and Furnace Testing

Increased research and development in nuclear technology has raised the demand for novel sensors and instrumentation to meet data objectives, and survive in different conditions and environments, beyond conventional light water reactor (LWR) environments. Expediting the deployment of advanced nuclear technologies by developing, demonstrating, and qualifying advanced reactor fuel forms necessitates a deeper understanding of how irradiation affects fuels and materials' performance. To achieve a more comprehensive understanding of fuels and materials performance, researchers require more specialized experiments and measurements. The demand for innovative sensors to support nuclear fuel development arises from the complexity of materials' behavior under irradiation and the challenges of deploying instrumentation in Material Test Reactors (MTRs) for irradiation tests. Additionally, measurements of material properties require integrated measurement systems to characterize thermal properties, mechanical properties, chemistry, and microstructure [1]. Among the potential measurement techniques, optical fiber-based sensors have been identified as potential sensors to measure different physical phenomena such as temperature, strain, pressure, and fluid level. Optical fiber sensors have the capability to provide multi-sensing and multiplexing instrumentation, allowing the measurement of different physical parameters within a single sensor configuration, and transmitting data collected at multiple locations through a single fiber. They offer immunity to electromagnetic interference, electrical passivity, compatibility with various sensing methodologies, and cost-effectiveness. Beyond their widespread use in telecommunications, silica fiber-based instruments are utilized in industrial applications, even at temperatures reaching 300?400°C, such as distributed temperature sensing in oil and gas recovery. The Department of Energy (DOE) is interested in using fiber optics to support fuel cycle development [2]. Fiber optics are an excellent candidate for harsh environment sensing, including sensing at very high temperatures (1900oC for sapphire optical fibers). Distributed fiber optic sensing has been deployed in other harsh environments like coal gasification plants [3]. Distributed strain sensing, which operates similarly to distributed temperature sensing, has been deployed to monitor underground mines and fibers have been imbedded in soil to monitor sink-hole development [4][5]. The application of fiber optic sensors to advanced reactor development is a promising area of research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing Renewable Energy Applications for Water Treatment Technologies and Transmission

The need for smaller treatment facilities for more isolated or rural municipal entities and industrial water treatment facilities continues to grow. From environmental justice and energy needs in remote communities that have never been serviced by larger scale utilities to smaller onsite treatment requirements to meet discharge regulations, energy efficient treatment systems that can leverage renewable energy sources can be an important asset to owners. Climate change and population dynamics have changed the needs for distributed water treatment systems and the manner in which they function. New treatment technologies that can operate under dynamic conditions and leverage variable energy sources (e.g., renewable energy, RE) can provide substantial efficiencies and cost savings. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is embarking on research projects that will perform multi-scale studies to investigate treatment technologies on varying source water quality that can operate under unsteady state flow conditions (timing) in response to energy availability, supply, and demand. A pilot-scale system will be built to assess modularity and scaling of treatment system operating conditions and performance. Modeling will also be used to determine feasibility and integration into grid emulation platforms to understand the use and value of operation with RE. Optimization will be completed for the treatment and distribution systems to document strengths and weaknesses of using RE power sources. Results of this effort will advance dynamic water treatment understanding under variable conditions and integration of RE sources to power these systems. This will lead to further decarbonization of municipal and private treatment facilities while supporting a paradigm shift in water treatment process operation and system design to achieve net-zero goals and move toward energy-sensitive resilient water treatment systems.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Numerical Atmospheric Models

In this study, a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water-management infrastructure design. Here, this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville, Tennessee (U.S.), in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics, and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to the IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15 km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, whereas NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5 km level. The recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15 km or 15–5 km nested grids, Morrison microphysics, and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm event forecasting and analyses for design, operations, and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.

Chen, Xiaodong↗
DOE OSTI2023

Output Data: gcam_usa_v5p3_im3

Output databases and tables supporting the publication: Khan, Z., Zhao, M., Ahsan, H., Wolfram, P., Vernon, C., Rice, J., Iyer, G., Binsted, M., Snyder, A., Graham, N., Kyle, P., 2023. Coevolution of future water, energy and land systems across the United States in response to national and global socioeconomic, climate, and energy policy drivers. (In progress) Earths Future, DOI: XXX with further details available at the meta-repository: https://immm-sfa.github.io/khan-etal_2023_im3gcamusa Folder: gcam_usa_im3_outputs (GCAM USA v 5.3 used for IM3 experiment Output Databases): database_rcp45cooler_ssp3.tar.gz database_rcp45cooler_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp45hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp45hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85cooler_ssp3.tar.gz database_rcp85cooler_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85hotter_ssp5.tar.gz database_rcp85hotter_ssp5.tar.gz Folder: gcam_usa_im3_gcamextractor_outputs (gcamextractor post-processing of the GCAM databases for specific downstream models ): dataGCAM_cerf.tar.gz (For CERF Model) dataGCAM_demeter.tar.gz (For Demeter model) dataGCAM_go.tar.gz (For GO model) gcamDataTable.tar.gz (All IM3 scenarios)

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrocoagulation of high-salinity produced water: lessons learned from its early applications in unconventional reservoir plays

Ample research has demonstrated that electrocoagulation is a versatile technology capable of facilitating the removal of a wide range of physical, biological, organic, and inorganic constituents such as suspended solids, turbidity, bacteria, viruses, oil and grease, organic carbon (including chemical and biological oxygen demand), silica, fluoride, and so on. Despite its purported advantages and extensive lab-scale evaluations, it has not yet been widely adopted for water and wastewater treatment and reuse at commercial scale. This is symptomatic of a chasm between its technological capabilities on one hand and field performance and reputation on the other. Herein, we opine as to why this might be the case using our collective experiences with the oil and gas industry as an exemplar. In this study, we highlight scientific, technological, engineering, and business issues that need to be addressed to realize the full potential of this promising technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Investigation of a CO 2 Conversion Strategy via Diels–Alder Reaction in a Carbon Capture Solvent

Molecular-level insights into reactive separations are crucial for the design of new conversion pathways of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). This work explores a postulated pathway that directs CO 2 to undergo inverse-electron-demand Diels–Alder reactions to produce heterocycles using the CO 2 chemically fixed on water-lean solvent molecules. Density functional theory calculations are applied to evaluate the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energies of three types of reactants (1,3-butadiene, 1,3-cyclohexadiene, and 1,2,4,5-tetrazine) with various functional substituents. These calculations also provide a data set (5.8k data) for developing a machine learning model to efficiently predict LUMO energies. A computational screening of LUMO energies for an additional 47k diene and tetrazine candidates is performed, and a list of candidates with lowered LUMO energies by electron-withdrawing substituents is provided. These candidates are further examined by their reaction energy barriers computed from the interatomic potential or density functional theory. Two major energy barriers are identified, one for the proton transfer within the water-lean solvent and the other for the CO 2 transfer from the solvent molecule to the reactant candidate (diene or tetrazine). The functional substituents have a more significant impact on the second barrier but a very slight one on the first barrier. This exploratory work demonstrates a new possibility for guiding experimental efforts toward the chemical conversion of fixated CO 2 to value-added compounds.

Chemical reactions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar+Storage for Household Back-up Power: Implications of building efficiency, load flexibility, and electrification for backup during long-duration power interruptions [Slides]

The study analyzes the evolving role of solar+storage for home backup power during long-duration power interruptions. In particular, it evaluates how required storage sizing is impacted as homes become more efficient, flexible, and electrified. The study relies on NREL’s ResStock building modeling platform to create statistically representative distributions of the existing building stock in ten locations across the United States. It then shows how the amount battery storage required for backup power rises or falls as a series of building envelope efficiency, load flexibility, and electrification measures are applied across the building stock in each region. The study also includes sensitivities to show how backup power requirements are impacted by the timing and duration of power interruptions, and explores variation in backup power requirements across the building stock within each study location. The results demonstrate the value of pairing solar+storage with efficiency upgrades, smart home controls, and (in mild winter climates) efficient heat pump retrofits. That value comes in the form of reducing the amount of storage required and/or extending the range of interruption conditions over which a given system can provide backup power (i.e., more extreme weather and/or longer interruptions). Heat pumps in cold-weather climates can pose a challenge for solar+storage backup power, given the amount of storage required, though are a vast improvement over electric-resistance heating. Retaining existing fossil-based heating systems for occasional use during power interruptions, as either the primary or supplementary source of heat, can mitigate this challenge. Other forms of building electrification (e.g., cooking and water heating) generally have marginal impacts on backup battery sizing, given their relatively small energy demand.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Floating Solar (FPV) Deployment: Policy and Operational Considerations

Floating solar photovoltaics, or "floating PV", offer an opportunity for scaling up the deployment of renewable energy on inland and offshore bodies of water. Floating PV presents the opportunity to: increase clean energy generation to help meet growing demand; lessen the potential for land-use conflicts; help existing hydropower systems optimize their operation; and adapt to increasing temperatures and drought events by reducing the rate of evapotranspiration of waterways. There is significant promise for floating PV deployment in several Southeast Asian countries, especially those rich in hydropower resources, such as Laos and Thailand, but deployment remains limited. This slide deck presents an overview of NREL's research on (1) the policy, economic, environmental, and cultural barriers that currently exist, (2) recently completed modeling exercise on the potential operational benefits of pairing floating PV and hydropower, (3) international best practices that can be adopted to Southeast Asia, and (4) plans for high-resolution floating PV technical potential assessment.

Asia Clean Energy Forum↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the fidelity of shallow-water carbonates as records of the Ni isotope composition of surface seawater

Nickel is a bioessential metal that is used in enzymes important to the C, N, and O cycles, and changes in its marine abundance and bioavailability may have affected the evolutionary trajectory of early life. Changes over time in the Ni isotope composition (δ 60 Ni) of surface seawater, which reflects biological demand for Ni, could allow for the reconstruction of the dynamics of Ni demand over Earth’s history, but this approach would require geologic records of surface seawater. Here, we investigate the fidelity of shallow-water carbonates as a record of the Ni isotope composition of surface seawater by determining how Ni is first partitioned into natural carbonates and then how post-depositional processes influence the Ni signal. Our samples come from the Great Bahama Bank, which is a well-studied, modern carbonate platform often used to study ancient platforms. We found that Ni is fractionated from seawater upon incorporation into carbonates capturing shallow (<18 cm), recent deposition (0.1 ‰–0.4 ‰ lighter than seawater). Variation among these [Ni] and δ 60 Ni values may be controlled by variation in mineral proportions. Meteoric diagenesis shifts δ 60 Ni to lower values, which we attribute to isotopically light meteoric fluids. In contrast, carbonates that experienced sediment-buffered marine diagenesis with respect to Ca isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios do not appear to differ in δ 60 Ni values from sediments generally representative of their initial deposition. The sensitivity of δ 60 Ni to diagenetic reset in these samples appears comparable to the sensitivities of Ca isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios, to first order. Thus, in general, carbonates that experienced sediment-buffered marine diagenesis with respect to these elements may hold the most promise as a record of the δ 60 Ni of coeval surface seawater. Additionally, we use our results to infer that the fraction of Ni removed from seawater into carbonates is less than 10 % of the total Ni output from the global oceans and incorporation of this Ni sink into global biogeochemical models will only have a minor impact on the modeled modern Ni budget.

Great Bahama Bank carbonates↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Value of Technology and Policy Innovation in Water Resource Portfolios

Abstract Recent water infrastructure planning models demonstrate that explicitly accounting for hydrological changes in long‐term water planning reduces costs and increases system robustness. However, current models do not consider the effects of other changes occurring in the system over long time horizons, namely technology and policy innovation. By leveraging state‐of‐the‐art dynamic control techniques, we propose a suite of tools that explicitly relate hydrologic change, technology innovation, and policy interventions to system‐level water costs. We design robust and cost‐optimal strategies for water supply expansion under hydrological variability and hundreds of plausible innovation states, for example, treatment cost and diversification improvements, deployment times, and demand reduction campaigns. Our approach circumvents the need to pre‐assign probabilities to innovation scenarios and, instead, directly calculates the effects of technology, policy, and hydrology variations on system cost and planning strategies to identify avenues of impactful innovation. These tools can support technology development hubs, urban, state, and federal water planners in anticipating cost implications of technology and policy innovation at the local level, and prioritizing high‐impact innovation goals based on quantitative targets. Results for the case study of Santa Barbara, California identify high‐value innovation attributes for the city as well as combinations of innovation attributes across technologies and policies, and quantify their potential utility cost reductions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstrating Load-Shaping Capabilities of Cost Minimizing Heat Pump Water Heater Controls with Varying Price Profiles

Increased penetration of photovoltaics and electrification of traditionally gas appliances are exacerbating existing challenges in cost-effectively balancing electricity grid supply and demand. Decarbonization without incurring expensive transmission and distribution system capacity increases requires shifting building loads from peak demand times to peak renewable production times. Grid operators are evaluating new ways of encouraging load shifting, including using time-varying price structures to provide a financial incentive. If devices incorporate price-responsive controls, a price profile could be designed to yield a wide variety of load curves as needed to optimize grid functionality. Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are an ideal device for price-responsive controls because the storage tank enables them to optimize the timing of electricity consumption without impacting hot water delivery service. This paper presents work demonstrating how price-responsive controls for HPWHs can provide different load profiles, as needed to stabilize the grid, in response to different price profiles. HPWH manufacturers now include web API and CTA-2045 communication capabilities which enable sending load shaping control signals. Pilot studies and preliminary programs have utilized these capabilities with uniform control strategies to reduce 4-9 PM electricity consumption. However, no studies have developed flexible controls capable of both a) responding to constantly varying price profiles and b) customizing logic to match the needs of each HPWH. Berkeley Lab's CalFlexHub project is pioneering price-driven load flexibility by developing and deploying cost-minimizing controls utilizing setpoint setting signals for fleets of HPWHs in response to varying price profiles. Control development is based on simulations using the Flexible Heat Pump Water Heater Performance Predictor which captures the control decisions of a residential, integrated HPWH manufacturer’s on-board controller. The proposed cost-reducing controls respond to constantly changing price profiles, providing the ability to change the price profile to generate load curves as needed to maintain grid stability. Preliminary simulations studying the load shaping capabilities of price-responsive controls on a fleet of 60 HPWHs have demonstrated an average of a) 135.4% increases in load during low-price periods, b) >36.8% reductions in electricity peak-price period, and c) 6.2% electricity cost savings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward Enhancing Wastewater Treatment with Resource Recovery in Integrated Assessment and Computable General Equilibrium Models

Sustainable water management is essential to increasing water availability and decreasing water pollution. The wastewater sector is expanding globally and beginning to incorporate technologies that recover nutrients from wastewater. Nutrient recovery increases energy consumption but may reduce the demand for nutrients from virgin sources. We estimate the increase in annual global energy consumption (1,100 million GJ) and greenhouse gas emissions (84 million t CO2e) for wastewater treatment in the year 2030 compared to today’s levels to meet sustainable development goals. To capture these trends, integrated assessment and computable general equilibrium models that address the energy-water nexus must evolve. We reviewed 16 of these models to assess how well they capture wastewater treatment plant energy consumption and GHG emissions. Only three models include biogas production from the wastewater organic content. Four explicitly represent energy demand for wastewater treatment, and eight include explicit representation of wastewater treatment plant greenhouse gas emissions. Of those eight models, six models quantify methane emissions from treatment, five include representation of emissions of nitrous oxide, and two include representation of emissions of carbon dioxide. Our review concludes with proposals to improve these models to better capture the energy-water nexus associated with the evolving wastewater treatment sector.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of different manufacturing methods on polyamide reverse-osmosis membranes for desalination: Insights from molecular dynamics simulations

Membranes are a key technology platform for a broad application of energy-efficient separations. To best serve the separation demands of industry, the manufacturing processes for these membranes are garnering increasing attention. In particular, for water desalination, the industry leading polyamide (PA) reverse osmosis (RO) membranes can be manufactured via molecular layer-by-layer (mLBL) deposition, interfacial polymerization (IP), and 3D-printing technique. However, the influence of different manufacturing methods on PA membrane’s properties is far from understood. Here, in this study, we present the high-pressure transport behavior of water and salt ions for PA membranes formed with IP, mLBL, and 3D-printing through non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations. Studies show that membranes fabricated with 3D-printing have similar performances to those manufactured using mLBL, quantified by water permeability, rejection of salt ions, structural integrity, and porosity features. However, the membranes formed with IP exhibit faster water transport, lower rejection, worse structural integrity, and more inhomogeneous network pores than those constructed using mLBL and 3D-printing. The unconnected water-accessible space governs water transport for PA membranes formed with mLBL and 3D-printing, which offers the impermanent open-closed pores that enable water to jump through PA membranes. In contrast, the permeated water-enterable space plays a prominent role in water movement across the PA membrane formed with IP, providing a continuous transport channel at high pressure. Importantly, we observe the more significant compaction features at high pressure for PA membranes formed with IP than mLBL and 3D printing. In short, these findings provide a comprehensive understanding of existing membrane preparation technologies. It also provides a guide for developing the new membrane preparation process at the molecular level.

3D-printing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Membranes for Lithium Recovery From Conventional and Unconventional Sources

Lithium has been deemed a critical mineral of national importance that finds uses in a wide range of applications, and its demand has been rising significantly in recent years. The urgency of meeting this demand requires lithium extraction from various aqueous sources such as continental brines, geothermal brines, seawater, produced water, and battery waste. While direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies such as adsorption, ion exchange, and solvent extraction have emerged as possible solutions, membrane technologies are also being investigated for various sources and at different stages of the recovery process. Here, we analyze the application of membranes for pretreatment of lithium source waters, bring management, lithium/magnesium separation, lithium/sodium separation, and lithium hydroxide conversion, and evaluate performance metrics for critical lithium separations from the literature. We explore the potential of membranes at every stage of the recovery process and describe their current status and future prospects. We describe hypothetical process trains with integrated membrane technologies for each source type and address their feasibility and challenges. The potential energy and water impacts of membrane-integrated and conventional DLE processes are also critically considered alongside performance and selectivity metrics, and this is illustrated using examples and calculated from published technical reports. This paper thus provides a comprehensive overview of the application of membranes along every stage of the lithium recovery process, emphasizing the versatility and potential of membrane technologies for critical mineral recovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models

Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas–driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor–holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. Here, it indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

We Just Want to Pump…You Up! Forecasting Grid-Connected Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Savings and Load Shifting Potential for the Southeast U.S.

Heat pump water heaters (HPWH) can achieve energy savings of 60-70% compared to conventional electric-resistance water heaters. However, even with a favorable simple payback period within the typical product lifetime, HPWHs make up only 1% of all electric water heaters sold in the residential sector. Market adoption is challenged, in part, by the lack of effective energy efficiency programs in the U.S. region with the greatest amount of residential electric water heaters. The recent integration of connected functionality into HPWHs offers the capability to shift load without undue negative impact on customers. This capability can provide value to utilities with peak load constraints, motivating them to promote HPWHs for the first time. This paper will present a methodology to forecast connected HPWH energy use and extrapolate load shifting potential for the Southeast U.S. region. The methodology leverages data from a robust connected HPWH field study conducted in the Pacific Northwest. A coefficient of performance (COP) relationship for HPWHs was developed using ambient and inlet water temperature data to forecast HPWH performance on a month-by-month basis. Using the forecasted COP, HPWH operating hours were calculated for meeting load, which serve as the proxy to extrapolate load shifting potential from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. As a use case, analytical results are presented for a specific utility. This methodology, in combination with market analysis, facilitates the development of customized energy savings and load shifting forecasts to understand the potential impacts of launching connected HPWH programs in specific utility service territories.

heat pump water heater, energy savings, load shift↗