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DOE OSTI2020

Two-Layer Dynamic Recycling Model (2L-DRM): Learning from Moisture Tracking Models of Different Complexity

Atmospheric moisture tracking models are used to identify and quantify sources and sinks of water in the atmospheric branch of the hydrologic cycle. These models are primarily used to investigate the origin of moisture resulting in precipitation for particular regions around the globe. Moisture tracking models vary widely in their level of complexity, depending on the number of physical processes represented. Complex models are comprehensive in their physical representation, but computationally much more expensive than simple models, which only focus on specific physical processes and use simplifying assumptions. We present the mathematical derivation of the new two-layer dynamical recycling model (2L-DRM), a simple analytical moisture tracking model that relaxes the vertically-integrated formulation of the original one-layer DRM (Dominguez et al., 2006). By comparing the simple DRM to a very complex moisture tracking model that uses water vapor tracers embedded within the Weather Research and Forecast regional climate model (WRF-WVT) for the North American Monsoon region, we pinpoint the absence of vertical wind shear as the main deficiency in the simple DRM. When comparing both simple models (DRM and 2L-DRM) to the WRF-WVT (which we treat as ‘truth’), the 2L-DRM better captures the spatial extent, the net amount and the temporal variability of precipitation that originates from oceanic and local terrestrial sources. The 2L-DRM is well suited to study the large-scale climatological sources of moisture, and for these applications, performs on-par with the much more complex and computationally demanding WRF-WVT model.

Dominguez, Francina↗

DOE OSTI2022

A radioisotope - enabled reactive transport model for deep vadose zone carbon

In mountainous regions, which constitute the principle source of recharge to major rivers and regional aquifers, infiltration occurs through fractured, partially saturated, weathered bedrock that acts as a boundary layer between saturated aquifers and surface soil. Commonly this deep vadose zone (DVZ) is many meters thick, and yet its role in regulating the generation, retention and mobility of reactive solutes, including nutrients, contaminants and weathering products, is largely unknown. In particular, many of the key reactions that drive the formation of the weathered DVZ and the quality of water moving through it are redox processes, regulated by the availability of organic carbon and oxygen below the soil layer. The role of the DVZ is thus also poorly constrained in the context of carbon stocks and mobility, particularly in lithologies that are naturally high in organic carbon, such as shales. The overarching hypothesis of this study is that upland regions developed in geologic settings with abundant petrogenic carbon store and actively cycle carbon in the weathered DVZ below the soil and above the water table at rates that are significant and currently unconstrained. In order to quantify this cycling, the current study combines novel instrumentation techniques allowing new direct sampling of DVZ systems with advanced numerical reactive transport simulations of carbon transport and transformation. Critically, these simulations will explicitly treat the three isotopes of carbon (the abundant 12C, the stable rare 13C and the radioactive 14C) in a unified framework, thus clearly parsing between the contributions of modern surface derived carbon and lithologic carbon sources in integrated measurements of fluid and gas phase fluxes. This novel model capability will be applied to test the role of DVZ carbon cycling as a regulator of water quality and geological weathering in two complementary field sites both located in organic carbon rich shale lithologies. The first is the Eel River Critical Zone Observatory (ERCZO) in Mendocino County, California, and the second is the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) in the East River watershed, near Crested Butte, Colorado. At the ERCZO, a novel vadose zone monitoring system has been installed in a 20 m thick, partially saturated, weathered shale hillslope, and preliminary data already indicate substantial CO2 flux generated many meters below the soil surface. At the SFA field site, an instrumented hillslope transect indicates a more complex multi-dimensional fluid and solute transport regime, which will serve as a key test of the calibrated models. Collectively, this project will advance understanding of the cycling of carbon belowground and in relation to transport pathways across the poorly constrained DVZ characteristic of primary water recharge areas. The key product of this work will be enhanced isotope simulation capabilities that are robust and publicly available for application across a broad diversity of systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Adaptive Dynamic Agrivoltaic Production Tool

In the pursuit of sustainable and land-use-efficient solutions to mitigate climate change, the concept of agrivoltaic systems, which integrate renewable solar energy into conventional agriculture, has emerged. By deploying solar arrays above the crop field, these systems are designed to maximize the land use efficiency or, in other words, the value of generated electricity and crop yield per unit area. While power generation has been extensively studied and modeled, research gaps persist in simulating crop performance [1], [2]. Early studies utilized generalized relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and crop production. However, significant variations in crop performance due to other factors, such as weather and soil, can compromise the reliability of the results [2]. Current studies focus on comprehensive process-based crop models, such as DSSAT [3] and STICS [4]. Nevertheless, the validation status varies greatly across different species, and the validation process requires well-designed experiments to adjust specific processes. For less common shade-tolerant crops with limited validation, such as cabbage, physiological behaviors can be difficult to predict [5]. This study investigates an adaptive dynamic agrivoltaic production tool (ADAPT) with few data requirements and minimal on-site calibration that can be easily applied in real applications.

Long, Qirui↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California

Mesoscale model predictions of wind, turbulence, and wind energy capacity factors are evaluated in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California (APWRA), where the diurnal regional sea breeze and associated terrain-driven speedup flows drive wind energy production during the summer months. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.4 using a novel three-dimensional planetary boundary layer (3D PBL) scheme, which treats both vertical and horizontal turbulent mixing, are compared to those using a well-established one-dimensional (1D) scheme that treats only vertical turbulent mixing. Each configuration is evaluated over a nearly 3-month-long period during the Hill Flow Study, and due to the recurring nature of the observed speedup flows, diurnal composite averaging is used to capture robust trends in model performance. Both model configurations showed similar overall skill. The general timing and direction of the speedup flows is captured, but their magnitude is overestimated within a typical wind turbine rotor layer. Both also fail to capture a persistent observed near-surface jet-like flow, likely due to the limited grid resolution that is typical of mesoscale models. However, the 3D PBL configuration shows several minor improvements over the 1D PBL configuration, including improved wind speed and turbulence kinetic energy profiles during the accelerating phase of the speedup events, as well as reduced positive wind speed bias at surface stations across the APWRA region. Using a mesoscale wind farm parameterization, modeled capacity factors are also compared to monthly data reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the study period. Although the monthly trend in the data is captured, both model configurations overestimate capacity factors by roughly 7 %–11 %. Through model evaluation, this study provides confidence in the 3D PBL scheme for wind energy applications in complex terrain and provides guidance for future testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

ARM FY2026 Radar Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility maintains a suite of advanced atmospheric radar systems that serve as critical tools in ARM’s mission to provide continuous, high-quality observations for advancing the understanding and modeling of atmospheric processes. These radar systems enable detailed characterization of clouds, precipitation, and dynamic structures in the atmosphere, supporting a broad range of scientific applications. The number of deployed systems exceeds what current staffing levels can fully support for continuous 24/7/365 operation. As such, it is essential to have a clearly defined and community-informed plan that prioritizes radar operations and communicates ARM’s strategy for sustaining and evolving these observational assets. This FY2026 Radar Plan outlines ARM’s approach to managing its radar portfolio—balancing scientific impact, operational feasibility, and long-term sustainability. It reflects ARM’s continued commitment to delivering calibrated, well-documented radar data products that enable process-level studies and support the development and evaluation of weather and climate models. Through this plan, ARM aims to ensure transparency in decision-making, alignment with user needs, and support for innovative science across the facility’s fixed and mobile observatories. Given uncertainties around the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 budget, this plan was developed to assume business as usual and will be updated as budgets and plans may change. It should be noted that, given the limited timeframe involved, this plan will be more succinct than previous plans.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Network Reconfiguration and Scheduling With Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation for Improved Microgrid Resilience

With the increased occurrence of various major extreme weather events, power outages and prompt power system restorations have recently drawn more attention to the resilience and recovery of power systems. From the perspective of a more resilient power delivery at the distribution grid, system restoration using network topology reconfiguration together with optimal scheduling of distributed energy resources are adopted in this paper. The proposed optimization model aims at minimizing the total load shedding cost and other operational costs, in which linearized topological constraints borrowed from graph theory and linearized DistFlow models are respectively used to maintain the radial network topology and power flow balance after system contingencies. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed strategy, a real-world case study of a networked three-microgrid system in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico, is used with the consideration of different independent/interconnected microgrid scenarios, contingencies, and fairness settings. Furthermore, hardware-in-the-loop testing is conducted for the same three-microgrid network, where the closely matched results with the simulated ones have validated the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy, which is now ready to move one step forward towards field deployment. Finally, to test the proposed restoration strategy in a larger networked system, the modified IEEE-33 bus test distribution system is considered, and the results show a more resilient power delivery for critical loads under three and four line outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal Pattern Recognition in the PMU Signals in the WECC system

Phasor measurement unit (PMU) data has been used by multiple power system applications, including state estimation, post event analysis, oscillation detection, model validation, and many others. Still, due to its big data nature and availability to general research institutions, comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying mechanisms are incomplete. This study applies a set of signal processing and machine learning approaches aiming at deciphering the characteristic behaviors of multiple phasor measurement units (PMUs) attributes (e.g., voltage, frequency, rate of change of frequency, phase angle), including their auto-correlation, cross-dependence, similarities and discrepancies across units and temporal scales, and distributions of anomalies and their linkages to potential external factors such as weather events. Data analytics are applied to PMUs from the U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The PMU measurements, recorded events, outages, and weather extremes are all from real world datasets. The findings from the study and mechanistic understanding of the PMU dynamics help provide guidance on system control or preventing blackouts. The derived metrics can be directly used for adjusting or filtering simulated PMU data used for advanced algorithm development.

Hou, Zhangshuan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy Model to Evaluate Thermal Energy Storage Integrated with Air Source Heat Pumps: Preprint

Full decarbonization in buildings requires the replacement of combustion appliances with electric ones, and air source heat pumps (ASHP) are a candidate alternative. However, technical limitations, such as the efficiency decrease when operating in cold weather, limit their adoption in the global heating market. Among several options to improve ASHP efficiency operating in colder climates, thermal energy storage (TES) has been considered, as it may provide heating when it is cold and shift ASHP operation to times when the weather is warmer. It may also take advantage of time of use electricity rates and support defrosting when necessary. The evaluation of ASHP-TES systems, however, is still limited because traditional metrics do not capture their full economic and environmental benefits. In this work, a python framework is presented to model the ASHP with and without the presence of TES. Metrics are proposed to analyze the system performance in terms of costs, equivalent CO2 emission, and efficiency metrics to evaluate and compare alternative systems. Model validation against experimental data obtained for a commercial heat pump is provided, as well as an application example using Denver, Colorado, to highlight the model capabilities.

cold climate↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intercomparison of Thermal Regime Algorithms in 1-D Lake Models

Lakes are an important component of the global weather and climate system, but the modeling of their thermal regimes has shown large uncertainties due to the highly diverse lake properties and model configurations. Here we evaluate the algorithms of four key lake thermal processes including turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing, light extinction, and snow density, using a highly diverse lake dataset provided by the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2a lake sector. Algorithm codes are configured and run separately within the same parent model to rule out any interference from factors apart from the algorithms examined. Evaluations are based on both simulation accuracy and recalibration complexity for application to global lakes. For turbulent heat fluxes, the non-Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) based, more simplified algorithms perform better in predicting lake epilimnion temperatures and achieve high convergence in the values of the calibrated parameters. For wind-driven mixing, a two-algorithm strategy considering lake shape and season is suggested with the regular mixing algorithm used for spring and earlier summer and the mixing-enhanced algorithm for summer steady stratification and fall overturn periods. There are no evident differences in the simulated thermocline depths using different light extinction algorithms or the observation. Finally, for lake ice phenology, a constant snow density at around 110 kg m-3 is found to be sufficient for most northern lakes while the Arctic lakes require a higher value. Our study provides highly practical guides for improving 1-D lake models and feasible parameterization strategies to better simulate global lake thermal regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

RuralAI in Tomato Farming: Integrated Sensor System, Distributed Computing, and Hierarchical Federated Learning for Crop Health Monitoring

Precision horticulture is evolving due to scalable sensor deployment and machine learning (ML) integration. These advancements boost the operational efficiency of individual farms, balancing the benefits of analytics with autonomy requirements. However, given concerns that affect wide geographic regions (e.g., climate change), there is a need to apply models that span farms. Federated learning (FL) has emerged as a potential solution. FL enables decentralized ML across different farms without sharing private data. Traditional FL assumes simple two-tier network topologies and, thus, falls short of operating on more complex networks found in real-world agricultural scenarios. Networks vary across crops and farms and encompass various sensor data modes, extending across jurisdictions. New hierarchical FL (HFL) approaches are needed for more efficient and context-sensitive model sharing, accommodating regulations across multiple jurisdictions. Here, we present the RuralAI architecture deployment for tomato crop monitoring, featuring sensor field units for soil, crop, and weather data collection. HFL with personalization is used to offer localized and adaptive insights. Model management, aggregation, and transfers are facilitated via a flexible approach, enabling seamless communication between local devices, edge nodes, and the cloud.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen and Electric Charging Infrastructure for Heavy-Duty Trucks: A Nationally Scalable Megaregion Assessment

Decarbonizing regional and long-haul freight is challenging due to the limitations of battery-electric commercial vehicles and infrastructure constraints. Hydrogen fuel cell medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) offer a viable alternative, aligning with the decarbonization goals of the Department of Energy and commercial entities. Historically, alternative fuels like compressed natural gas and liquefied propane gas have faced slow adoption due to barriers like infrastructure availability. To avoid similar issues, effective planning and deploying zero-emission hydrogen fueling infrastructure is crucial. This research develops deployment plans for affordable, accessible, and sustainable hydrogen refueling stations, supporting stakeholders in the decarbonized commercial vehicle freight system. It aims to benefit underserved and rural energy-stressed communities by improving air quality, reducing noise pollution, and enhancing energy resiliency. This research also provides a blueprint for replacing diesel in over-the-road Class 8 freight truck applications with hydrogen fueling solutions. The study focuses on the Texas Triangle Megaregion (I-45, I-35, and I-10), the I-10 corridor between San Antonio, TX, and Los Angeles, CA, and the I-5/CA-99 corridors between Los Angeles, CA, and San Francisco, CA. This area represents a significant portion of U.S. heavy-duty freight movement, carrying ~8.5% of the national freight volume. Using the OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Efficient National Transport) modeling framework, the study conducts an advanced assessment of commercial vehicles, road and freight networks, and energy systems. The framework integrates data on freight mobility, traffic, weather, and energy pathways to deliver a region-specific, optimized vehicles powertrain architectures, infrastructure deployment solutions, operational logistics, and energy pathways. By considering all vehicle origin-destination pairs utilizing these corridors and all feasible fueling station location options, the framework's genetic algorithm identifies the minimum number and optimal locations of hydrogen refueling stations, ensuring no vehicle is stranded. It also determines fuel schedules and quantities at each station. A roadmap for station deployment based on multiple adoption trajectories ensures a strategic rollout of hydrogen refueling infrastructure.

Sujan, Vivek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269882342)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Conversion of Site-Specific Meteorological Data for use in CAP-88 PC

CAP-88 PC is a commonly used radiological atmospheric dispersion model. This US EPA-approved model is used to demonstrate compliance with atmospheric emission regulations for radionuclides. While the model includes a large library of meteorological data for use across the United States, there are applications when users may wish to use onsite meteorological data as an input to the CAP-88 PC model. Here, in this work, we present a work-around process for preparing and converting onsite data for use in CAP-88 PC. However, the use of local data should provide a more realistic estimate of doses to members of the public in the immediate vicinity of a facility, although the regulatory agency having jurisdiction may not accept the use of local data for compliance. Additionally, the historical meteorological records from 20+ years ago (at a site many kilometers away) might not be representative of current local weather patterns, highlighting another benefit of using local meteorological data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Freewheeling: What Six Locations, 61,000 Trips, and 242,000 Miles in Colorado Reveal about How E-Bikes Improve Mobility Options

Personal micromobility modes such as bicycles, e-bikes and scooters offer low- or zero-emission transportation alternatives to single occupancy vehicles (SOVs). However, the lack of supporting data has led to a dearth of data-driven research on the usage of personally owned e-bikes, including variations due to weather, geography and demographics. In this paper, we present an overview of the longitudinal findings from the CanBikeCO program, focused on e-bike adoption and use rates across different demographics, trip characteristics, and geographies. The CanBikeCO program recorded travel survey data from late July 2021 to December 31, 2022, from low-income Colorado households who were provided with e-bikes for personal use by the Colorado Energy Office (CEO). This data was collected in six different communities across Colorado following the mini-pilot program that was conducted in Fall 2020. To collect data for the survey, the program used the NREL OpenPATH application, which combines passive data collection with semantic information such as trip mode and purpose labels. To the best of our knowledge, there is no prior travel survey data on personally owned e-bikes with this range and scope. This unique dataset yielded several insights. One is that commute trips among participants had nearly 17% higher shares of e-bikes than all trips combined. E-bikes were stated to most often replace cars (34% of e-bike trips) and personal micromobility (22%). Participants favored walking for trips less than 1 mile, e-bikes for trips 1-3 miles, and e-bikes, cars or shared rides for trips 3-20 miles. Seasonality accounted for a 10% decrease and subsequent recovery in e-bike mileage on a per user basis. E-bikes are also appealing across age groups, even among older individuals, and see decreased utilization similar to regular bikes or walking during winter months. We also find that e-bike use may be related to characteristics of land use and urban form, occupation and income as well as household car ownership. We conclude that, for this population, who are mainly part of low-income households, the emissions added by the use of e-bikes (in the case of replacement of non-motorized modes) are outweighed by the strong single occupancy vehicle (SOV) travel replacement. As a whole, our findings suggest a considerable potential for energy savings and emissions reductions from personal e-bike ownership.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Unit Commitment with Security Constrained AC Power Flow via ADMM and Hybrid Modeling Strategies

This research introduces a more efficient way to optimize power grid operations, breaking the problem into manageable steps and using advanced mathematical techniques to speed up calculations. By incorporating smart heuristics, improved preprocessing, and contingency analysis, the approach allows operators to make better decisions faster. These innovations enhance our understanding of how to optimize energy generation, making it possible to anticipate failures before they happen, reduce system costs, and improve overall grid performance. Ultimately, this research helps bridge the gap between theoretical models and real-world applications, paving the way for a smarter, more resilient power grid. This research directly benefits the public by making electricity more affordable, reliable, and sustainable. By improving how power grids schedule and distribute electricity, the project helps energy providers reduce operational costs, which can lead to lower electricity prices for consumers. Additionally, the ability to predict and prevent power system failures enhances grid reliability, reducing the likelihood of blackouts that can disrupt homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure such as hospitals. From an environmental perspective, optimizing power generation reduces energy waste and lowers carbon emissions, contributing to cleaner air and a more sustainable energy system. Furthermore, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent, these advancements make the power grid more resilient, ensuring communities are better prepared for emergencies and natural disasters. By strengthening the nation's energy infrastructure, this research plays a crucial role in improving economic stability, public safety, and environmental sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wildfire Risk Evaluation Framework for Grid Operations and Planning

The United States (US) environmental protection agency's (EPA's) climate change indicators for wildfires show a long-term trend of increased annual wildfire activity, larger wildfire size, and more variable dynamics in wildfire behavior. This has caused more frequent preemptive public safety power shutoff (PSPS) events in the regions with recognized high wildfire risk. These preemptive power shutoffs attempt to prevent the ignition of a wildfire but it nonetheless renders the transmission line non-operational, which often sheds load of downstream communities. As wildfires and PSPS events become more frequent, it is crucial to find the communities most at risk of load shedding. To that end, this paper proposes the wildfire risk evaluation of the system (WiRES) framework, which is a performance-based framework that translates extreme weather-related and PSPS event probabilities into a cumulative probability of a non-operational transmission line. This study also provides a geospatial visualization tool that breaks down the entire western electrical coordinating council (WECC) region into 50 km grid cells which can be used to 1) filter out transmission lines with higher than a threshold outage probability, and 2) graphically discover the affected regions and their biophysical and socioeconomic metrics. %such as the social vulnerability index, population density, gross domestic product, etc. Lastly, an impact assessment study is conducted which connects the results of the proposed framework to python and powerworld-based contingency analysis to highlight the applicability of the framework.

Wildfire, Resilience, Extreme Events, Grid Reslien↗

DOE OSTI2022

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗