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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment

Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.

economics↗
NASA NTRS1998

On-Orbit Model Refinement for Controller Redesign

High performance control design for a flexible space structure is challenging since high fidelity plant models are difficult to obtain a priori. Uncertainty in the control design models typically require a very robust, low performance control design which must be tuned on-orbit to achieve the required performance. A new procedure for refining a multivariable open loop plant model based on closed-loop response data is presented. Using a minimal representation of the state space dynamics, a least squares prediction error method is employed to estimate the plant parameters. This control-relevant system identification procedure stresses the joint nature of the system identification and control design problem by seeking to obtain a model that minimizes the difference between the predicted and actual closed-loop performance. This paper presents an algorithm for iterative closed-loop system identification and controller redesign along with illustrative examples.

Whorton, Mark S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improvements in VLBI Data Analysis for Advanced in Geodesy

I will provide an overview of advances in VLBI data analysis implemented at NASA GSFC. That include the use of B-splines for modeling non-linear station position evolution, the use of all non-tidal mass loadings in data reduction, the use of slant a priori path delays from the output of numerical weather models, the use of B-splines for evaluation of the Earth orientation parameters as a continuous function, the use of elevation-dependent weighting, processing both 24 hr and 1 hr experiments in a single least square solutions and other innovations. I will show how this changes in data analysis affect space geodesy results, such as estimation of station positions, Earth orientation parameters, and source coordinates.

Leonid Petrov↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Physical Model to Estimate Snowfall over Land using AMSU-B Observations

In this study, we present an improved physical model to retrieve snowfall rate over land using brightness temperature observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit-B (AMSU-B) at 89 GHz, 150 GHz, 183.3 +/- 1 GHz, 183.3 +/- 3 GHz, and 183.3 +/- 7 GHz. The retrieval model is applied to the New England blizzard of March 5, 2001 which deposited about 75 cm of snow over much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and northern New York. In this improved physical model, prior retrieval assumptions about snowflake shape, particle size distributions, environmental conditions, and optimization methodology have been updated. Here, single scattering parameters for snow particles are calculated with the Discrete-Dipole Approximation (DDA) method instead of assuming spherical shapes. Five different snow particle models (hexagonal columns, hexagonal plates, and three different kinds of aggregates) are considered. Snow particle size distributions are assumed to vary with air temperature and to follow aircraft measurements described by previous studies. Brightness temperatures at AMSU-B frequencies for the New England blizzard are calculated using these DDA calculated single scattering parameters and particle size distributions. The vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, relative humidity and hydrometeors are provided by MM5 model simulations. These profiles are treated as the a priori data base in the Bayesian retrieval algorithm. In algorithm applications to the blizzard data, calculated brightness temperatures associated with selected database profiles agree with AMSU-B observations to within about +/- 5 K at all five frequencies. Retrieved snowfall rates compare favorably with the near-concurrent National Weather Service (NWS) radar reflectivity measurements. The relationships between the NWS radar measured reflectivities Z(sub e) and retrieved snowfall rate R for a given snow particle model are derived by a histogram matching technique. All of these Z(sub e)-R relationships fall in the range of previously established Z(sub e)-R relationships for snowfall. This suggests that the current physical model developed in this study can reliably estimate the snowfall rate over land using the AMSU-B measured brightness temperatures.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamic edge warping - An experimental system for recovering disparity maps in weakly constrained systems

Dynamic edge warping (DEW), a technique for recovering reasonably accurate disparity maps from uncalibrated stereo image pairs, is presented. No precise knowledge of the epipolar camera geometry is assumed. The technique is embedded in a system including structural stereopsis on the front end and robust estimation in digital photogrammetry on the other for the purpose of self-calibrating stereo image pairs. Once the relative camera orientation is known, the epipolar geometry is computed and the system can use this information to refine its representation of the object space. Such a system will find application in the autonomous extraction of terrain maps from stereo aerial photographs, for which camera position and orientation are unknown a priori, and for online autonomous calibration maintenance for robotic vision applications, in which the cameras are subject to vibration and other physical disturbances after calibration. This work thus forms a component of an intelligent system that begins with a pair of images and, having only vague knowledge of the conditions under which they were acquired, produces an accurate, dense, relative depth map. The resulting disparity map can also be used directly in some high-level applications involving qualitative scene analysis, spatial reasoning, and perceptual organization of the object space. The system as a whole substitutes high-level information and constraints for precise geometric knowledge in driving and constraining the early correspondence process.

Boyer, K. L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present the use of this framework on a very specific (but generalizable) application, interesting for a more general AI audience. Here, we detail a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing uncertainties involved in gathering teardown data, the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and the need to perform retail price equivalent or indirect cost multiplier adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle classes, market segments, etc. There is also clear interaction between the price of technologies and other specifications present in vehicles. Those results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and application of flat and rigid adjustment factors should be carefully examined. The findings are based on a database developed by Argonne, which includes over 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 with hundreds of vehicle specs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1998

In-Flight System Identification

A method is proposed and studied whereby the system identification cycle consisting of experiment design and data analysis can be repeatedly implemented aboard a test aircraft in real time. This adaptive in-flight system identification scheme has many advantages, including increased flight test efficiency, adaptability to dynamic characteristics that are imperfectly known a priori, in-flight improvement of data quality through iterative input design, and immediate feedback of the quality of flight test results. The technique uses equation error in the frequency domain with a recursive Fourier transform for the real time data analysis, and simple design methods employing square wave input forms to design the test inputs in flight. Simulation examples are used to demonstrate that the technique produces increasingly accurate model parameter estimates resulting from sequentially designed and implemented flight test maneuvers. The method has reasonable computational requirements, and could be implemented aboard an aircraft in real time.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Deep Learning-Driven Sampling Technique to Explore the Phase Space of an RNA Stem-Loop

The folding and unfolding of RNA stem-loops are critical biological processes; however, their computational studies are often hampered by the ruggedness of their folding landscape, necessitating long simulation times at the atomistic scale. Here, we adapted DeepDriveMD (DDMD), an advanced deep learning-driven sampling technique originally developed for protein folding, to address the challenges of RNA stem-loop folding. Although tempering- and order parameter-based techniques are commonly used for similar rare-event problems, the computational costs or the need for a priori knowledge about the system often present a challenge in their effective use. DDMD overcomes these challenges by adaptively learning from an ensemble of running MD simulations using generic contact maps as the raw input. DeepDriveMD enables on-the-fly learning of a low-dimensional latent representation and guides the simulation toward the undersampled regions while optimizing the resources to explore the relevant parts of the phase space. We showed that DDMD estimates the free energy landscape of the RNA stem-loop reasonably well at room temperature. Our simulation framework runs at a constant temperature without external biasing potential, hence preserving the information on transition rates, with a computational cost much lower than that of the simulations performed with external biasing potentials. Here, we also introduced a reweighting strategy for obtaining unbiased free energy surfaces and presented a qualitative analysis of the latent space. This analysis showed that the latent space captures the relevant slow degrees of freedom for the RNA folding problem of interest. Finally, throughout the manuscript, we outlined how different parameters are selected and optimized to adapt DDMD for this system. We believe this compendium of decision-making processes will help new users adapt this technique for the rare-event sampling problems of their interest.

Gupta, Ayush↗
NASA NTRS1984

The origin of low-velocity absorption components in the Mg II resonance lines of hybrid-chromosphere stars

It is argued that the low-velocity absorption features seen in the Mg II resonance lines of seven confirmed and three probable hybrid-chromosphere stars are interstellar rather than circumstellar in origin. From a comparison of radial velocities based on all available spectra in the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) archives with estimates of the interstellar velocity along each line of sight, a good correlation between the observed position of the low-velocity component and the predicted interstellar feature is found. It is also shown that previous arguments in favor of the circumstellar origin of the low-velocity absorption features are either incorrect or implausible. The conclusion of the present study may modify previously proposed models of hybrid star winds which have assumed a priori that both Mg II absorption components are circumstellar.

Drake, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Starling Formation-Flying Optical Experiment: Initial Operations and Flight Results

This paper presents initial flight results for angles-only navigation of a swarm of small spacecraft, conducted during the Starling Formation-Flying Optical Experiment (StarFOX). StarFOX is one of four experiments aboard the NASA Starling mission, which consists of four CubeSats launched in July 2023. Angles-only methods apply inter-satellite bearing angles obtained by on-board cameras for navigation, increasing satellite autonomy and enabling new mission concepts. Nevertheless, prior flight demonstrations have only featured one observer and target and have relied upon a-priori target orbit knowledge for initialization, translational maneuvers to resolve target range, and external absolute orbit updates to maintain convergence. StarFOX overcomes these limitations by applying the angles-only Absolute and Relative Trajectory Measurement System (ARTMS), which integrates three novel algorithms. Image Processing detects and tracks multiple targets in images, using multi-hypothesis methods and domain-specific kinematic modeling, and computes target bearing angles. Batch Orbit Determination computes initial swarm orbit estimates from bearing angle batches, via iterative batch least squares and sampling of the weakly observable target range. Sequential Orbit Determination leverages an adaptive, efficient unscented Kalman filter with nonlinear models to refine swarm state estimates over time. Multi-observer measurements shared over an intersatellite link are seamlessly fused to enable robust absolute and relative orbit determination. Initial StarFOX experiments are the first demonstrations of autonomous angles-only navigation for a satellite swarm, including multi-target and multi-observer relative navigation; autonomous initialization of navigation for unknown targets; and simultaneous absolute and relative orbit determination. Relative navigation accuracy of 1% (single observer) and 0.2% (multi-observer) of the inter-satellite range is achieved under challenging measurement conditions. Results demonstrate promising performance with regards to ongoing StarFOX campaigns and the application of angles-only navigation to future distributed missions.

Relative Navigation↗
NASA NTRS1977

Numerical comparison of Kalman filter algorithms - Orbit determination case study

Numerical characteristics of various Kalman filter algorithms are illustrated with a realistic orbit determination study. The case study of this paper highlights the numerical deficiencies of the conventional and stabilized Kalman algorithms. Computational errors associated with these algorithms are found to be so large as to obscure important mismodeling effects and thus cause misleading estimates of filter accuracy. The positive result of this study is that the U-D covariance factorization algorithm has excellent numerical properties and is computationally efficient, having CPU costs that differ negligibly from the conventional Kalman costs. Accuracies of the U-D filter using single precision arithmetic consistently match the double precision reference results. Numerical stability of the U-D filter is further demonstrated by its insensitivity to variations in the a priori statistics.

Bierman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Numerical comparison of discrete Kalman filter algorithms - Orbit determination case study

Numerical characteristics of various Kalman filter algorithms are illustrated with a realistic orbit determination study. The case study of this paper highlights the numerical deficiencies of the conventional and stabilized Kalman algorithms. Computational errors associated with these algorithms are found to be so large as to obscure important mismodeling effects and thus cause misleading estimates of filter accuracy. The positive result of this study is that the U-D covariance factorization algorithm has excellent numerical properties and is computationally efficient, having CPU costs that differ negligibly from the conventional Kalman costs. Accuracies of the U-D filter using single precision arithmetic consistently match the double precision reference results. Numerical stability of the U-D filter is further demonstrated by its insensitivity to variations in the a priori statistics.

Bierman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Using Machine Learning for Timely Estimates of Ocean Color Information From Hyperspectral Satellite Measurements in the Presence of Clouds, Aerosols, and Sunglint

Retrievals of ocean color from space are important for better understanding of the ocean ecosystem but can be limited under conditions such as clouds, aerosols, and sunglint. Many ocean color algorithms use a few selected spectral bands to perform an atmospheric correction and then derive the upwelling radiance from the ocean. The limitations in the atmospheric correction under certain conditions lead to many gaps in daily spatial coverage of ocean color retrievals. To address these limitations, we introduce a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate ocean color from top of atmosphere radiances or reflectance measurements. In this approach, a principal component analysis is used to decompose the hyperspectral measurements into spectral features that describe the scattering and absorption of the atmosphere and the underlying surface. The coefficients of the principal components are then used to train a neural network to predict ocean color properties derived from the MODIS atmospheric correction algorithm. This machine learning approach is independent of a priori information and does not rely on any radiative transfer modeling. We apply the approach to two hyperspectral UV/VIS instruments, the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), using measurements from 320–500 nm to show that it can be used to reproduce ocean color properties in less-than-ideal conditions. This machine learning approach complements the current atmospheric correction ocean color retrievals by filling in the gaps resulting from cloud, aerosol, and sunglint contamination. This method can be applied to the future hyperspectral Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), which will be onboard NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) ocean color satellite set to launch in 2024.

Ocean color↗
NASA NTRS1995

Earth Rotation Parameters From DSN VLBI: 1995

A description of the DSN VLBI data set and of last year's analysis can be found in last year's report. Other than including another year's data, the main changes in this year's analysis from last year's are in the use of meteorological data for determining tropospheric parameters and in the weighting of the data to account for the uncertainty in the observables caused by tropospheric effects and source structure. A priori dry zenith tropospheric delays were determined from barometric pressure measurements at the DSN sites, corrected for height differences between the pressure sensor and the antennas. A priori wet zenith tropospheric delays were derived from tables of monthly average wet zenith delays for each station, which are based on historical radiosonde data. The Lanyi function was used for mapping zenith tropospheric delays to observed elevations. the temperature at the top of the boundary layer, a parameter in the Lanyi function, was taken to be the 24-hour average of the surface temperature at the station. Adjustments to the wet troposphere zenith delays were estimated every two to three hours.

Earth rotation, DSN, VLBI↗
NASA NTRS1976

A numerical comparison of discrete Kalman filtering algorithms: An orbit determination case study

The numerical stability and accuracy of various Kalman filter algorithms are thoroughly studied. Numerical results and conclusions are based on a realistic planetary approach orbit determination study. The case study results of this report highlight the numerical instability of the conventional and stabilized Kalman algorithms. Numerical errors associated with these algorithms can be so large as to obscure important mismodeling effects and thus give misleading estimates of filter accuracy. The positive result of this study is that the Bierman-Thornton U-D covariance factorization algorithm is computationally efficient, with CPU costs that differ negligibly from the conventional Kalman costs. In addition, accuracy of the U-D filter using single-precision arithmetic consistently matches the double-precision reference results. Numerical stability of the U-D filter is further demonstrated by its insensitivity of variations in the a priori statistics.

Thornton, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Recalibrating software reliability models

In spite of much research effort, there is no universally applicable software reliability growth model which can be trusted to give accurate predictions of reliability in all circumstances. Further, it is not even possible to decide a priori which of the many models is most suitable in a particular context. In an attempt to resolve this problem, techniques were developed whereby, for each program, the accuracy of various models can be analyzed. A user is thus enabled to select that model which is giving the most accurate reliability predictions for the particular program under examination. One of these ways of analyzing predictive accuracy, called the u-plot, in fact allows a user to estimate the relationship between the predicted reliability and the true reliability. It is shown how this can be used to improve reliability predictions in a completely general way by a process of recalibration. Simulation results show that the technique gives improved reliability predictions in a large proportion of cases. However, a user does not need to trust the efficacy of recalibration, since the new reliability estimates produced by the technique are truly predictive and so their accuracy in a particular application can be judged using the earlier methods. The generality of this approach would therefore suggest that it be applied as a matter of course whenever a software reliability model is used.

Brocklehurst, Sarah↗
NASA NTRS1990

Recalibrating software reliability models

In spite of much research effort, there is no universally applicable software reliability growth model which can be trusted to give accurate predictions of reliability in all circumstances. Further, it is not even possible to decide a priori which of the many models is most suitable in a particular context. In an attempt to resolve this problem, techniques were developed whereby, for each program, the accuracy of various models can be analyzed. A user is thus enabled to select that model which is giving the most accurate reliability predicitons for the particular program under examination. One of these ways of analyzing predictive accuracy, called the u-plot, in fact allows a user to estimate the relationship between the predicted reliability and the true reliability. It is shown how this can be used to improve reliability predictions in a completely general way by a process of recalibration. Simulation results show that the technique gives improved reliability predictions in a large proportion of cases. However, a user does not need to trust the efficacy of recalibration, since the new reliability estimates prodcued by the technique are truly predictive and so their accuracy in a particular application can be judged using the earlier methods. The generality of this approach would therefore suggest that it be applied as a matter of course whenever a software reliability model is used.

Brocklehurst, Sarah↗