A Transfer Learning Framework for Power System Event Identification
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
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Automated Threat Recognition For Aviation Security Applications
We have developed a framework for automated threat recognition (ATR) of explosive threat materials for both single-energy and dual-energy X-ray CT systems. Under this framework, two different types of ATR have been developed. The first type of ATR employs supervised machine learning with statistical characterization of target materials for threat identification training. The reliance only on statistical characterization information for threat training uniquely enables this style of ATR to adapt quickly to evolving threats. The second type of ATR employs deep learning through convolutional neural networks. Convolutional neural networks are attractive due to their human-like capacity for learning and strong ability to identify trends and patterns. Although this method is more powerful than the first type, it requires large amounts of training data and therefore is less agile. Each ATR performs threat characterization at the voxel neighborhood level. This approach avoids the use of threat shape as a detection criterion, which is prohibited by DHS and TSA guidelines.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)
Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Multi-Level Structural Damage Characterization Using Sparse Acoustic Sensor Networks and Knowledge Transferred Deep Learning
Standard structural health monitoring techniques face well-known difficulties for comprehensive defect diagnosis in real-world structures that have structural, material, or geometric complexity. This motivates the exploration of machine-learning-based structural health monitoring methods in complex structures. However, creating sufficient training data sets with various defects is an ongoing challenge for data-driven machine (deep) learning algorithms. The ability to transfer the knowledge of a trained neural network from one component to another or to other sections of the same component would drastically reduce the required training data set. Also, it would facilitate computationally inexpensive machine learning based inspection systems. In this work, a machine-learning-based multi-level damage characterization is demonstrated with the ability to transfer trained knowledge within the sparse sensor network. A novel network spatial assistance and an adaptive convolution technique are proposed for efficient knowledge transfer within the deep learning algorithm. Proposed structural health monitoring method is experimentally evaluated on an aluminum plate with artificially induced defects. It was observed that the method improves the performance of knowledge transferred damage characterization by 50% during localization and 24% during severity assessment. Further, experiments using time windows with and without multiple edge reflections are studied. Results reveal that multiply scattered waves contain rich and deterministic defect signatures that can be mined using deep learning neural networks, improving the accuracy of both identification and quantification. In the case of a fixed sensor network, using multiply scattered waves shows 100% prediction accuracy at all levels of damage characterization.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science
Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.
Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration
This work deals with the challenge of online adaptive data collection in a time series. A remote sensor or explorer agent adapts its rate of data collection in order to track anomalous events while obeying constraints on time and power. This problem is challenging because the agent has limited visibility (all its datapoints lie in the past) and limited control (it can only decide when to collect its next datapoint). This problem is treated from an information-theoretic perspective, fitting a probabilistic model to collected data and optimizing the future sampling strategy to maximize information gain. The performance characteristics of stationary and nonstationary Gaussian process models are compared. Self-throttling sensors could benefit environmental sensor networks and monitoring as well as robotic exploration. Explorer agents can improve performance by adjusting their data collection rate, preserving scarce power or bandwidth resources during uninteresting times while fully covering anomalous events of interest. For example, a remote earthquake sensor could conserve power by limiting its measurements during normal conditions and increasing its cadence during rare earthquake events. A similar capability could improve sensor platforms traversing a fixed trajectory, such as an exploration rover transect or a deep space flyby. These agents can adapt observation times to improve sample coverage during moments of rapid change. An adaptive sampling approach couples sensor autonomy, instrument interpretation, and sampling. The challenge is addressed as an active learning problem, which already has extensive theoretical treatment in the statistics and machine learning literature. A statistical Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to guide sample decisions that maximize information gain. Nonsta tion - ary (e.g., time-varying) covariance relationships permit the system to represent and track local anomalies, in contrast with current GP approaches. Most common GP models are stationary, e.g., the covariance relationships are time-invariant. In such cases, information gain is independent of previously collected data, and the optimal solution can always be computed in advance. Information-optimal sampling of a stationary GP time series thus reduces to even spacing, and such models are not appropriate for tracking localized anomalies. Additionally, GP model inference can be computationally expensive.
Thompson, David R.↗
Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science
Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.
Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
Diagnosis of Corrosion Process in Nuclear Power Plant Secondary Piping Structures
Corrosion inside secondary pipe structures in Nuclear Power Plants is difficult to detect without intrusion. Statistical and machine learning techniques are used to predict corrosion using pipe vibration data. 3D accelerometers were used to record pipe vibration data in three directions using six sensors. Vibration data were processed using the Hilbert-Huang Transformation, which is known for its adaptable basis function to non-linear and non-stationary signals. Hilbert-Huang Transformation using empirical mode functions generates multiple intrinsic mode functions of different amplitude and frequency levels from raw vibration data. From intrinsic mode functions features are extracted which include phase, energy, entropy, mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. Logistic regression using only phase information correctly distinguished mass additions from baseline data in roughly 83% and 85% of the cases. Phase information varied substantially among different baseline runs and within trials of the same run. Random Forest resulted in >95% testing accuracy for both mass addition and mass removal data. Support Vector Machine had ~98% testing accuracy for mass removal and ~92% testing accuracy for mass additions when using Permutation Importance feature selection. When using Principle Component Analysis with Support Vector Machine, testing accuracy was ~68% testing accuracy for mass additions and ~85% testing accuracy for mass.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
A Comparison of Adaptive and Template Matching Techniques for Radio-Isotope Identification
We compare and contrast the effectiveness of a set of adaptive and non-adaptive algorithms for isotope identi cation based on gamma-ray spectra. One dimensional energy spectra are simulated for a variety of dwell-times and source to detector distances in order to reflect conditions typically encountered in radiological emergency response and environmental monitoring applications. We nd that adaptive methods are more accurate and computationally efficient than non-adaptive in cases of operational interest.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Modular performance prediction for scientific workflows using Machine Learning
Scientific workflows provide an opportunity for declarative computational experiment design in an intuitive and efficient way. A distributed workflow is typically executed on a variety of resources, and it uses a variety of computational algorithms or tools to achieve the desired outcomes. Such a variety imposes additional complexity in scheduling these workflows on large scale computers. As computation becomes more distributed, insights into expected workload that a workflow presents become critical for effective resource allocation. In this paper, we present a modular framework that leverages Machine Learning for creating precise performance predictions of a workflow. The central idea is to partition a workflow in such a way that makes the task of forecasting each atomic unit manageable and gives us a way to combine the individual predictions efficiently. We recognize a combination of an executable and a specific physical resource as a single module. This gives us a handle to characterize workload and machine power as a single unit of prediction. Overall, our modular technique of creating atomic modules and deployment of longest-path approach to estimate workflow performance, allows the framework to adapt to highly complex nested directed acyclic workflows and scale to new scenarios, since it does not make assumptions of underlying workflow structure. We present performance estimation results of independent workflow modules executed on the XSEDE SDSC Comet cluster using various Machine Learning algorithms. The results provide insights into the behavior and effectiveness of different algorithms in the context of scientific workflow performance prediction.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Spectroscopic analysis reveals that soil phosphorus availability and plant allocation strategies impact feedstock quality of nutrient-limited switchgrass
Abstract The perennial native switchgrass adapts better than other plant species do to marginal soils with low plant-available nutrients, including those with low phosphorus (P) content. Switchgrass roots and their associated microorganisms can alter the pools of available P throughout the whole soil profile making predictions of P availability in situ challenging. Plant P homeostasis makes monitoring of P limitation via measurements of plant P content alone difficult to interpret. To address these challenges, we developed a machine-learning model trained with high accuracy using the leaf tissue chemical profile, rather than P content. By applying this learned model in field trials across two sites with contrasting extractable soil P, we observed that actual plant available P in soil was more similar than expected, suggesting that adaptations occurred to alleviate the apparent P constraint. These adaptations come at a metabolic cost to the plant that have consequences for feedstock chemical components and quality. We observed that other biochemical signatures of P limitation, such as decreased cellulose-to-lignin ratios, were apparent, indicating re-allocation of carbon resources may have contributed to increased P acquisition. Plant P allocation strategies also differed across sites, and these differences were correlated with the subsequent year’s biomass yields.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Autonomous closed-loop mechanistic investigation of molecular electrochemistry via automation
Abstract Electrochemical research often requires stringent combinations of experimental parameters that are demanding to manually locate. Recent advances in automated instrumentation and machine-learning algorithms unlock the possibility for accelerated studies of electrochemical fundamentals via high-throughput, online decision-making. Here we report an autonomous electrochemical platform that implements an adaptive, closed-loop workflow for mechanistic investigation of molecular electrochemistry. As a proof-of-concept, this platform autonomously identifies and investigates an EC mechanism, an interfacial electron transfer ( E step) followed by a solution reaction ( C step), for cobalt tetraphenylporphyrin exposed to a library of organohalide electrophiles. The generally applicable workflow accurately discerns the EC mechanism’s presence amid negative controls and outliers, adaptively designs desired experimental conditions, and quantitatively extracts kinetic information of the C step spanning over 7 orders of magnitude, from which mechanistic insights into oxidative addition pathways are gained. This work opens opportunities for autonomous mechanistic discoveries in self-driving electrochemistry laboratories without manual intervention.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing
To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.
Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗
Wolf
The Workflow Orchestration Language Framework (WOLF) is an agentic framework grounded in natural language with an architecture inspired by reinforcement learning (RL)—designed to orchestrate, scale, and accelerate complex workflows. The concept of WOLF was born out of the very successful ASC Tri-lab Multi-Agent Design Assistant (MADA) project, but extends beyond its domain-specific design agents to provide a more general and extensible architecture. WOLF capitalizes on the lessons learned from MADA and is fully aligned with Sutton’s The Bitter Lesson—that the most enduring progress in AI comes from general-purpose methods that scale with computation, rather than narrow techniques built on domain-specific human knowledge. In this spirit, WOLF enables agents to autonomously learn workflows, capture strategies as reusable playbooks, and build a growing corpus of interpretable, auditable “wisdom artifacts.” These artifacts, expressed in natural language, bridge human and machine understanding while preserving adaptability and scalability as computational power continues to expand.
Boureima, Ismaeal↗
Proactive Defense for Evolving Cyber Threats
There is great interest to develop proactive methods of cyber defense, in which future attack strategies are anticipated and these insights are incorporated into defense designs; however, little has been done to place this ambitious objective on a sound scientific foundation. Indeed, even fundamental issues associated with how the “arms race” between attackers and defenders actually leads to predictability in attacker activity, or how to effectively and scalably detect this predictability in the relational/temporal data streams generated by attacker/defender adaptation, haven’t been resolved. This LDRD project addressed many of these challenges and the results are briefly summarized here. We have characterized the predictability of attacker/defender coevolution and have leveraged our findings to create a framework for designing proactive defenses for large (organizational) networks. More specifically, this project applied rigorous predictability-based analytics to two central and complementary aspects of the network defense problem – attack strategies of the adversaries and vulnerabilities of the defenders’ systems – and used the results to develop a scientifically-grounded, practically-implementable methodology for designing proactive cyber defense systems. Briefly, predictive analysis of attack strategies involved first conducting predictability assessments to characterize attacker adaptation patterns in given domains, and then used these patterns to “train” adaptive defense systems capable of providing robust performance against both current and (near) future threats. The problem of identifying and prioritizing defender system vulnerabilities was addressed using statistical and machine learning to analyze a broad range of data (e.g., cyber, social media) on recently detected system vulnerabilities to “learn” classifiers that predict how likely it is that, and how soon, new vulnerabilities will be exploited. A variety of cyber threat case studies were developed and investigated throughout the project, one selected from the cyber security research community and one that is more comprehensive and of higher priority to SNL and to external national security partners. A sample of research results and application of this methodology are included in this report (as a series of peer-reviewed publications). For ease of reference the title and SAND number are included below.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
SDN-NGenIA, a Software Defined Next Generation Integrated Architecture for HEP and Data Intensive Science
This project aims to enable the LHC and other leading programs in high energy physics and other global science domains funded by the DOE to operate with a new level of efficiency and control, through the development of a Next Generation Integrated Architecture (NGenIA) based on intelligent software defined network (SDN)-driven network systems coupled to high throughput applications. While the initial focus is on the challenging LHC use case, the systems and products being developed are general, and apply to many fields of data intensive science ranging from astrophysical sky surveys to bioinformatics and earth observation, as well as other organizations facing the challenges of extracting knowledge from distributed multi-petabyte data stores. A central concept in this development program is a new paradigm ‘consistent network operations’ among widely distributed computing and storage facilities, where stable high throughput flows, at set rates, cross load-balanced network paths, up to flexible high water marks that are adjusted in real time to accommodate other network traffic. The large smooth flows are launched and managed by SDN services that act in concert with the experiments’ site-resident data distribution and management systems, to meet the expanding needs of the science programs. The technical goals include the construction of autonomous, intelligent site-resident services that interact dynamically with network-resident services, and with the science programs’ principal data distribution and management tools, to request or command network resources in support of high throughput petascale to exascale workflow Specific work items include: 1. Developing compact Data Transfer Nodes (DTNs) with auto-tuning functions that support data transfer rates in the 100 Gbps to the 1 Tbps range when used with high throughput data transfer applications 2. Deep site orchestration among virtualized clusters, storage subsystems and subnets to successfully coschedule CPU, storage and network resources 3. Science-program designed site architectures, operational modes, and policy and resource usage priorities, adjudicated across multiple network domains and virtual organizations, using the orchestration functions and methods 4. Seamlessly extending end-to-end operation across both extra-site and intra-site boundaries through the use of Open vSwitch (OVS), FireQoS + next generation Science DMZs 5. Novel methods of system integration that enable granular control of extreme scale long distance transfers through flow matching of scattered source-destination address pairs to multi-domain dynamic circuits 6. Funneling massive sets of streams to DTNs at the site edge hosting petascale buffer pools configured for flows of 100 Gbps and up, exploiting state of the art data transfers 7. Adaptive scheduling based on pervasive end-to-end monitoring, including DTN or compute-node resident agents providing comprehensive end-system profiling 8. Developing unsupervised and supervised machine learning and modeling methods to optimize the workflow involving terabyte to multi-petabyte datasets.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Plant Single-Cell Solutions for Energy and the Environment (Second Workshop Report)
Plants are important sources of energy and materials, and they collectively represent a critical component of Earth’s ecosystem. With increasing environmental stresses due to climate change and intensive agricultural practices, the need for resilient plants is greater than ever before. To secure plant resources for bioenergy, biomaterials, food, and ecosystem adaptation, a deeper understanding of the fundamental biology of plants at a cellular level is urgently needed. Plants contain a multitude of specialized cell types that compose tissues and organs. Pathogens often target specific cell types within plants, and the response of one cell to a particular stimulus is likely to be distinct from its neighbor because of underlying molecular and contextual differences. Understanding how these responses are distributed among cells, the main goal of single-cell approaches, will substantially enhance our ability to use targeted engineering for improving plant productivity and resilience. Furthermore, single-cell approaches are necessary to understand the interactions between plants and other ecosystem members such as fungi, bacteria, and archaea. Unlocking these gene-response mechanisms at a cellular level can improve our ability to adapt plants to environmental stresses, increasing their utility as feedstocks for biomaterials and bioenergy. Recent advances in high-throughput sequencing, mass spectrometry, microfluidics and miniaturization, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and bioinformatics have greatly improved our ability to detect and understand processes at a cellular level. In mammalian systems, single-cell transcriptomics has already led to many advances, such as newly identified cell types and cell-targeted treatment of diseases, and mass spectrometry-based single-cell proteomics has recently been demonstrated as a promising emerging technology. However, plant single-cell omics has lagged behind mammalian approaches due to the high cost of the technologies relative to available resources and to the innate biological features of plants, including the complexity of the cell wall and polyploidy. To better understand how single-cell methods could enable plant science, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) hosted a workshop on April 29, 2021, that brought together a diverse group of leaders in plant and/or single-cell biology. Attendees represented federal research programs and domestic and international academic institutions. During the workshop, three presenters described the current state of research in both experimental and computational approaches. While the focus of the workshop was on factors preventing plant biology researchers from fully adopting single-cell methodologies, workshop participants agreed that most barriers could be overcome with focused, strategic investment and coordinated efforts among institutions leading to significant scientific discoveries that would be difficult to obtain using more conventional technologies.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Improving the Parameterization of Cloud and Rain Microphysics in E3SM using Novel Observationally-Constrained Bayesian Approach (Final Technical Report)
In this project, we sought to develop new cloud and rain microphysics frameworks within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This work encompassed two primary avenues of research: 1) Further development of a Bayesian-based scheme called BOSS (Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme) to represent cloud and rain microphysics, testing it in realistic high-resolution cloud models, and implementing it in E3SM; 2) Development of a methodology utilizing machine learning to enable computationally tractable use of tractable use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian parameter estimation in Earth system and cloud models. In this project, we adapted the BOSS microphysics scheme, originally formulated for rain-only, to include all liquid-phase microphysical processes for cloud and rain, in particular the processes that mediate between these two categories, for example the conversion from cloud to rain through collision and coalescence of drops. We constrained the scheme via comparison and testing against a detailed model that explicitly represents the evolution of cloud and rain particles, called a bin microphysics scheme.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗