Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “climate mitigation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Lachir, Asia↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Libya-4 to Intercalibrate Overlapping Sensors in the Same Sun-Synchronous Orbit

The NASA CERES observed SW and LW broadband fluxes are utilized by the climate community for monitoring the Earth’s energy imbalance and for climate model validation. The SNPP and NOAA20 CERES instruments and associated VIIRS imagers were launched into the same 1:30 PM mean local time sun-sun-synchronous orbits as well as the future NOAA22 Libera broadband instrument and VIIRS imager. The overlapping sensor records need to be intercalibrated to enable consistent broadband fluxes and imager cloud retrievals. The overlapping satellites are typically placed a half an orbit apart, thus preventing any simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) events required for time-matched inter-calibration strategies. A Pseudo Invariant Calibration Site (PICS), such as Libya-4, can provide overlapping sensor radiometric scaling factors without the use of SNOs. The clear-sky Libya-4 observed radiances were characterized both spectrally and angularly and corrected for atmospheric effects. The Libya-4 natural variability was found to be consistent across the CERES and VIIRS records. This fact reveals that the sensor onboard calibration anomalies are smaller than the Libya-4 natural variability. By mitigating the Libya-4 natural variability will reduce the radiometric scaling factor uncertainty needed to provide both broadband flux and cloud retrieval continuity across the overlapping sensor records.

D R Doelling↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Mechanism for Recent Production of Liquid Water on Mars

Though Mars is a cold, dry planet, with respect to the thermal stability of liquid water at low altitudes it is not terribly different from comparably cold places on Earth. In dry air such water would evaporate faster on Mars, at a rate comparable to a 60 C hot spring on Earth, but the heat loss associated with that evaporation would be mitigated by the poor thermal convection in the thin Martian air. Even at higher altitudes where the atmospheric pressure does not reach the triple point of water, liquid water might theoretically exist in a low-vapor pressure form such as wet soil, in a briny solution, or simply under a layer of dust or snow. The theoretical stability of liquid water does not suggest its occurrence, either on Mars or in Antarctica. In fact, global models have suggested that locations capable of providing sufficient heat for melting are, precisely for that reason, too dry for water to be present. However, the temperature of irregular local structures such as trenches or craters can be markedly warmer than those of the uniform surfaces of global models. The work described here suggests a plausible scenario in which seasonal liquid water might be produced locally, in sheltered locations, through a process of condensation, cold-trapping, buffering, and melting. While the amounts produced in the present climate would be small, copious amounts of meltwater may have been produced at other phases of the orbital cycle, as recently as 20,000 years ago.

Hecht, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Tempe Urban Development II: Establishing an Urban Heat Exposure Severity Score for Infrastructure Prioritization in Tempe, Arizona, Using NASA Earth Observations and LiDAR

Located in the northern Sonoran Desert, Tempe, Arizona, features a semi-arid climate with summer daily maximum temperatures regularly exceeding 37.8° C (100.0° F). The area has experienced an increase in surface and air temperatures due to a steep expansion of impervious surfaces and rapid urban development. Urban heat is an increasingly pressing concern for Tempe with hundreds of heat-related deaths and thousands of heat-related hospitalizations over the past 15 years in Maricopa County. Furthermore, urban heat impacts residents’ quality of life and the economic vitality of the city. Recognizing the impacts of extreme urban heat, the City of Tempe collaborated with the Healthy Urban Environments initiative and the Fall 2020 Tempe Urban Development II NASA DEVELOP team to utilize NASA Earth observations to investigate the drivers of highest heat throughout the city. Data from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), American Community Survey, and LiDAR data were used to identify areas experiencing the worst heat effects that could be targeted for heat mitigation and adaptation. These areas included the Escalante neighborhood, Alegre Community, University Heights, and around Dwight Park. Additionally, according to our shading analysis, the Gilliland and Escalante neighborhood walksheds do not meet the "good" shading threshold set at 30% by the Maricopa Association of Government.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2020

Tempe Urban Development II: Establishing an Urban Heat Exposure Severity Score for Infrastructure Prioritization in Tempe, Arizona, Using NASA Earth Observations and LiDAR

Located in the northern Sonoran Desert, Tempe, Arizona, features a semi-arid climate with summer daily maximum temperatures regularly exceeding 37.8° C (100.0° F). The area has experienced an increase in surface and air temperatures due to a steep expansion of impervious surfaces and rapid urban development. Urban heat is an increasingly pressing concern for Tempe with hundreds of heat-related deaths and thousands of heat-related hospitalizations over the past 15 years in Maricopa County. Furthermore, urban heat impacts residents’ quality of life and the economic vitality of the city. Recognizing the impacts of extreme urban heat, the City of Tempe collaborated with the Healthy Urban Environments initiative and the Fall 2020 Tempe Urban Development II NASA DEVELOP team to utilize NASA Earth observations to investigate the drivers of heat exposure throughout the city. Data from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), American Community Survey, and LiDAR data were used to identify areas experiencing the worst heat effects that could be targeted for heat mitigation and adaptation. These areas included the Escalante neighborhood, Alegre Community, University Heights, and around Dwight Park. Additionally, according to our shading analysis, the Gilliland and Escalante neighborhood walksheds do not meet the "good" shading threshold set at 30% by the Maricopa Association of Government.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
NASA NTRS2026

Scientific Highlights and Status of the Mars Science Laboratory Mission, Years 9 through 12

We present the scientific highlights and status from years 9-12 of NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory mission, with its Curiosity rover. A thermochemolysis-based sample analysis revealed a variety of organic molecules preserved in clay mineral-rich lake/lake margin deposits of the Glen Torridon region. The stratigraphically higher clay-sulfate mineral transition on Aeolis Mons was found to be associated with a lithological change from lacustrine to dry aeolian depositional environments. Water intermittently returned to the surface after the increase in aridity, including during the deposition of wave ripple strata which indicate a climate capable of sustaining an ice-free lake in the early Hesperian. The overlying Mg sulfate-bearing unit has both poly- and monohydrated Mg sulfates and is also enriched in iron carbonate of a purity consistent with chemical sedimentation and therefore atmospheric sequestration. A channel-incised canyon within Gediz Vallis and distal alluvial deposits recorded numerous fluvial and debris flow events after the deposition, lithification, and erosion of the clay- and sulfate-bearing units. Bright clasts found in Gediz Vallis canyon are composed of native sulfur. The investigation of the modern atmosphere and environment focused on the influence of the crater and mountain topography and captured high-altitude noctilucent and iridescent clouds. Radiation monitoring now spans an 11-year solar cycle. Rover systems and science instruments remain capable of addressing mission scientific objectives. All ten scientific instruments continue to return high-value data despite degradation of the Chemistry and Camera instrument’s high-voltage system, loss of multispectral imaging capability, and loss of active neutron spectroscopy. The mission has mitigated the loss of redundant brakes on two arm joints, additional wheel wear, and highly reduced capability of the redundant flight computer. Efficiency improvements in rover energy utilization and operations staffing have allowed the mission team to maintain a high level of productivity despite declining rover power generation and funding.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2022

Groundwater Variability Across India, Under Contrasting Human and Natural Conditions

Characterizing local to regional scale water cycles and water resources will be crucial for achieving the United Nations' water-related Sustainable Developmental Goals. However, quantification and understanding of groundwater extraction across scales have been hampered by inadequate water usage reporting and limited information on irrigation practices. Here we analyze observations from ∼15,000 groundwater monitoring wells and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites together with irrigation, agricultural, and meteorological datasets to show how drought-induced coupling between natural and anthropogenic groundwater storage variations has caused sustainability challenges in India, the world's biggest consumer of groundwater for irrigation. Notably, the mechanisms and consequences of such coupling differ significantly depending on aquifer types. In Andhra Pradesh's hard rock aquifer, groundwater declines have been limited, despite the nearly constant water scarcity that its farmers face. Moreover, its free farm power policy involves an annual irrigation energy consumption of 26 billion kWh that costs US$ 2.5 billion, possibly unparalleled compared to any other part of the world of similar size (0.27 million km2). In West Bengal's highly permeable alluvial aquifer, the water table is declining rapidly (15 cm/yr) due to a policy that encourages irrigation. Situated between these two states, Odisha's aquifer shows substantial resilience to drought, owing to the state's relatively natural landscape and forest restoration policy. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand the divergent aspects of groundwater irrigation in north versus south India, which can enable development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avert the looming water crisis.

Dileep K Panda↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sea Surface Air Pressure Retrieval with MBARS

Global meteorological observations are essential in initialization and assimilation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Many key weather variables such as temperature, humidity, and wind can be relatively well observed by in-situ and remote techniques from surface, suborbital and orbital platforms. However, sea surface air pressure cannot be well-sampled. Over open oceans, the pressure can only be observed by very limited buoys, ships, and oceanic platforms. There is no operational remote sensing method available for the crucial dynamic variable of the Earth’s climate and weather systems. Advanced techniques for global sea level pressure (SLP) observations are urgently needed for improving NWP models, particularly for improvement of severe weather forecasts. Recent studies on the space and airborne Microwave BArometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS) systems provide a great potential to fill the SLP observational gap. The systems studied have three channels with center frequencies at 65.5, 67.76 and 70 GHz. These channels are designed to operate at atmospheric oxygen (O2) absorption bands for column O2 mass measurements. When sea surface returns of spectrally closely-spaced paired channels are measured, surface reflection and atmospheric attenuation other than O2 are very similar, but the difference in O2 absorption is substantial. Thus, the differential absorption loss of this frequency pair leads to measures of atmospheric O2 amount. For the residual absorption loss caused by other agents, a third frequency having the same spectral space to the weak absorption frequency of the first pair can be used, which forms the second pair and produces the same residual as the first pair. Removal of the residual of this second pair from the first pair can further mitigate environmental impacts. Thus, this 3-channel approach will provide precise O2 amount retrievals. Since oxygen is well mixed in the atmosphere, the column air mass or SLP can be obtained. Currently, MBARS is rapidly maturing its advanced technology. An upcoming airborne field flight campaign is planned in late 2024. The 3-channel approach will be use in SLP retrievals. This MBARS team will discuss the physics-based SLP retrieval technique and report latest progresses in this upcoming AGU annual meeting.

O2 differential absorption↗
NASA NTRS2011

Airborne Remote Observations of L-Band Radio Frequency Interference and Implications for Satellite Missions

Passive remote sensing of the Earth s surface and atmosphere from space has significant importance in operational and research environmental studies, in particular for the scientific understanding, monitoring and prediction of climate change and its impacts. Passive remote sensing requires the measurement of naturally occurring radiations, usually of very low power levels, which contain essential information on the physical process under investigation. As such, these sensed radio frequency bands are a unique natural resource enabling space borne passive sensing of the atmosphere and the Earth s surface that deserves adequate allocation to the Earth Exploration Satellite Service and absolute protection from interference. Unfortunately, radio frequency interference (RFI) is an increasing problem for Earth remote sensing, particularly for passive observations of natural emissions. Because these natural signals tend to be very weak, even low levels of interference received by a passive sensor may degrade the fidelity of scientific data. The characteristics of RFI (low-level interference and radar-pulse noise) are not well known because there has been no systematic surveillance, spectrum inventory or mapping of RFI. While conducting a flight experiment over central Tennessee in May 2010, RFI, a concern for any instrument operating in the passive L band frequency, was observed across 16 subbands between 1402-1427 MHz. Such a survey provides rare characterization data from which to further develop mitigation technologies as well as to identify bandwidths to avoid in future sensor formulation.

Laymon, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Implementation of Active Thermal Control (ATC) for the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Radiometer

NASA's Earth Observing Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission is scheduled to launch in November 2014 into a 685 kilometer near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit. SMAP will provide comprehensive global mapping measurements of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state in order to enhance understanding of the processes that link the water, energy, and carbon cycles. The primary objectives of SMAP are to improve worldwide weather and flood forecasting, enhance climate prediction, and refine drought and agriculture monitoring during its three year mission. The SMAP instrument architecture incorporates an L-band radar and an L-band radiometer which share a common feed horn and parabolic mesh reflector. The instrument rotates about the nadir axis at approximately 15 revolutions per minute, thereby providing a conically scanning wide swath antenna beam that is capable of achieving global coverage within three days. In order to make the necessary precise surface emission measurements from space, the electronics and hardware associated with the radiometer must meet tight short-term (instantaneous and orbital) and long-term (monthly and mission) thermal stabilities. Maintaining these tight thermal stabilities is quite challenging because the sensitive electronics are located on a fast spinning platform that can either be in full sunlight or total eclipse, thus exposing them to a highly transient environment. A passive design approach was first adopted early in the design cycle as a low-cost solution. With careful thermal design efforts to cocoon and protect all sensitive components, all stability requirements were met passively. Active thermal control (ATC) was later added after the instrument Preliminary Design Review (PDR) to mitigate the threat of undetected gain glitches, not for thermal-stability reasons. Gain glitches are common problems with radiometers during missions, and one simple way to avoid gain glitches is to use the in-flight set point programmability that ATC affords to operate the radiometer component away from the problematic temperature zone. A simple ThermXL model (10 nodes) was developed to exercise quick trade studies among various proposed control algorithms: Modified P control vs. PI control. The ThermXL results were then compared with the detailed Thermal Desktop (TD) model for corroboration. Once done, the simple ThermXL model was used to evaluate parameter effects such as temperature digitization, heater size and gain margin, time step, and voltage variation of power supply on the ATC performance. A Modified P control algorithm was implemented into the instrument flight electronics based on the ThermXL results. The thermal short-term stability margin decreased by 10 percent with ATC and a wide temperature error band (plus or minus 0.1 degrees Centigrade) compared to the original passive thermal design. However, a tighter temperature error band (plus or minus 0.1 degrees Centigrade) increased the thermal short-term stability margin by a factor of three over the passive thermal design. The current ATC design provides robust thermal control, tighter stability, and greater in-flight flexibility even though its implementation was prompted by non-thermal performance concerns.

Mikhaylov, Rebecca↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consistent Pixel Resolution Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds for Calibration

The NASA CERES project provides global TOA shortwave and longwave fluxes for climate monitoring and validation that spans over 20 years. CERES utilizes broadband fluxes derived from geostationary (GEO) imagers to estimate broadband fluxes between the CERES observations. In order for these fluxes to be viable, the GEO imager calibration must be stable over time. One such calibration method used by CERES is to evaluate ensemble sets of deep convective clouds (DCC) as invariant targets (IT) over time. DCC targets can also provide radiometric scaling between sensors. An international collaboration through GSICS is also evaluating the DCC-IT calibration methodology to provide consistent calibration coefficients across geostationary sensors. Tropical DCC are the coldest, brightest, and most Lambertian TOA Earth targets identified using a window channel brightness temperature threshold. The DCC-IT technique involves a large ensemble of TOA pixel-level reflectances, which are binned into probability density functions (PDF). The PDF structure dependency on sensor pixel resolution, which can vary greatly among sensors, is not well known. This study will identify the impact of pixel resolution on the DCC PDFs by aggregating VIIRS and Landsat OLI/TIRS pixel resolutions into various coarser pixel resolutions and comparing the shape and statistics of the resulting PDFs. This study should assist in mitigating the pixel resolution dependency in the DCC-IT approach for providing scaling factors between sensors.

Conor Haney↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spatiotemporal Methane Emissions from Global Lakes and Reservoirs

Inland aquatic systems, such as lakes and reservoirs, contribute substantially to global methane (CH4) emissions; yet are among the most uncertain components of the total CH4 budget. Lakes and reservoirs have received recent attention as they may generate high CH4 fluxes. Improved quantification of these CH4 fluxes, particularly their spatiotemporal distribution, is key to realistically incorporating them in CH4 modeling and budget studies. Here we report on a new global, gridded (0.25° lat × 0.25° lon) study of lake and reservoir CH4 emissions, accounting for new knowledge regarding lake and reservoir areal extent and distribution, and spatiotemporal emission patterns influenced by diurnal variability, temperature-dependent seasonality, satellite-derived freeze-thaw dynamics, and eco-climatic and physical CH4-centric type classification. The results of this new data set comprise daily CH4 emissions from lake and reservoirs throughout the full annual cycle and are tightly anchored to field observations, in situ measurements, and remote-sensing observations. Results show that reservoirs cover 297 × 103 km2 globally and emit 10.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 from diffusive (1.2 Tg CH4 yr-1) and ebullitive (8.9 Tg CH4 yr-1) emission pathways. On a global scale, CH4 emitting areas of lakes cover 1853 × 103 km2 and emit 37.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 from diffusive (17.1 Tg CH4 yr-1) and ebullitive (23.0 Tg CH4 yr-1) emission pathways and an additional ebullition flux of 5.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 upon ice-melt due to the accumulation of bubbles during the freeze period. This analysis of lakes and reservoir CH4 emission addresses multiple gaps and uncertainties in previous studies and represents an important contribution to studies of the global CH4 budget. The new data sets and methodologies from this study provide a framework to better understand and model the current and future role of lakes and reservoirs in the global CH4 budget and to guide efforts to mitigate inland aquatic system CH4 emissions. This presentation will describe the methodologies applied and the major results of this study focusing on the spatiotemporal distribution of lake and reservoir type classification, processes driving lake and reservoir emission seasonality, and the contribution of individual lake and reservoir types to the annual cycle of inland aquatic CH4 emissions.

Spatiotemporal↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Study on the Effects of J2 Perturbations on a Drag-Free Control System for Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions provide a unique means of gathering information about many of Earth s aspects such as climate, atmosphere, and gravitational field. Among the greatest challenges of LEO missions are designing, predicting, and maintaining the spacecraft orbit. The predominant perturbative forces acting on a spacecraft in LEO are J2 and higher order gravitational components, the effects of which are fairly easy to predict, and atmospheric drag, which causes the greatest uncertainty in predicting spacecraft ephemeris. The continuously varying atmospheric drag requires increased spacecraft tracking in order to accurately predict spacecraft location. In addition, periodic propulsive maneuvers typically must be planned and performed to counteract the effects of drag on the spacecraft orbit. If the effects of drag could be continuously and autonomously counteracted, the uncertainty in ephemeris due to atmospheric drag would essentially be eliminated from the spacecraft dynamics. One method of autonomous drag compensation that has been implemented on some missions is drag-free control. Drag-free control of a spacecraft was initially proposed in the 1960's and is discussed extensively by Lange. His drag-free control architecture consists of a free-floating proof mass enclosed within a spacecraft, isolating it from external disturbance forces such as atmospheric drag and solar radiation pressure. Under ideal conditions, internal disturbance forces can be ignored or mitigated, and the orbit of the proof mass depends only on gravitational forces. A sensor associated with the proof mass senses the movement of the spacecraft relative to the proof mass. Using the sensor measurements, the spacecraft is forced to follow the orbit of the proof mass by using low thrust propulsion, thus counteracting any non-gravitational disturbance forces. If the non-gravitational disturbance forces are successfully removed, the spacecraft s orbit will be affected only by well-known gravitational forces and will thus be easier to predict.

Vess, Melissa Fleck↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risk Assessment for Asteroid Impact Threat Scenarios

Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite-Based Evaluation of AeroCom Model Bias in Biomass Burning Regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by −93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

biomass burning aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2005

A New Approach to using a Cloud-Resolving Model to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 kilometers, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-kilometer scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 kilometers in two dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 square kilometers in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically-based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. A review of developments and applications of cloud models in the past, present and future will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using cloud-resolving models to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation and aerosols will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2005

A New Approach to Using a Cloud-resolving Model to Study the Interactions Between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as l0,OOO km in two-dimensions, and 1,OOO x 1,OOO km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically-based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. A review of developments and applications of cloud models in the past, present and future will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using cloud-resolving models to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation and aerosols will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗