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DOE OSTI2024

Modeling prebiotic chemistries with quantum accuracy at classical costs

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations using classical force-fields are commonly employed in numerous scientific investigations. However, many natural processes involve bond breaking and quantum forces. This complexity is compounded by the presence of multiple competing length and timescales. For example, accurately modeling the thermodynamics and dynamics of a chemical reaction requires accounting for the concerted movements of numerous solvent molecules and ions with their own fast or slow timescales. While widely used static Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations at 0 temperature can be beneficial for such investigations, they do not account for dynamics, and lack precision in describing the molecular environments. They particularly fail at correct, rigorous treatments of finite-temperature fluctuations, and thus generalization to experimentally relevant conditions. In PNAS Benayad et al develop a scalable, generalizable approach for designing Neural Network Potentials (NNPs) that can handle chemical reactivity in solvated systems with quantum accuracy at classical costs. Specifically, they study phosphoester bond formation and rupture, which is fundamentally relevant to the Phosphorus-Oxygen bond formation central to life, and especially for the RNA world hypothesis. The framework developed here has the potential to generalize to different chemical reactions of energy and biological relevance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Determinants of Stereoselectivity in Monoterpene Synthases

Monoterpene synthases (MTSs) catalyze the conversion of an achiral prenyl diphosphate precursor, most commonly geranyl diphosphate (GPP), into structurally and stereochemically diverse products. However, remains poorly understood. Here, we combine enzymatic assays with six MTSs and selected variants, along with extensive molecular dynamics simulations to the mechanistic basis of stereoselectivity. We demonstrate that the preferred helical binding conformation of GPP, determined from free-energy calculations and selected crystal structures of MTSs, correlates well with the experimentally determined stereoselectivity of MTSs, whereas only a poor correlation is observed between the binding of enantiomers of linalyl diphosphate (LPP), a chiral intermediate of MTS catalysis, and the stereochemical reaction outcomes. Free energy maps indicate that enzyme-bound GPP conformers preferentially occupy regions that enable a direct and stereochemically faithful transition from GPP to subsequent carbocations. In contrast, LPP frequently populates regions of the energy surface where conformational scrambling can occur, thus leading to a lack of correlation between LPP enantiomer binding and product stereochemistry. Overall, these findings establish that the configuration of GPP is the primary determining factor for stereochemical outcomes in MTSs, offering a new framework for designing stereoselective terpene synthases.

Srividya, Narayanan (ORCID:0000000179347987)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of microkinetic modeling assumptions on predicted kinetics and mechanisms over undercoordinated sites

Accurate modeling of catalytic reactions on undercoordinated sites requires accounting for the structural and ensemble-specific nature of the active sites. This study examines how common microkinetic modeling (MKM) assumptions affect predicted kinetics and mechanisms on the stepped Pt(211) facet for the ethane dehydrogenation (EDH) and the ethane hydrogenolysis (EH). Six (211) MKMs were developed, differing in (i) the number of active sites represented, (ii) adsorbate site occupancy treatment, and (iii) inclusion of cross-facet interactions. These models are benchmarked against a particle-based microkinetic model (PB-MKM), which best represents step-edge behavior. MKM assumptions caused deviations in turnover frequencies exceeding ten orders of magnitude and led to contrasting mechanistic and selectivity predictions. Multi-site MKMs overestimate activity by inflating free site availability, single-site models underestimate activity, and uniform occupancy models overpredict coverage of multi-dentate intermediates, leading to reaction-specific artifacts. Overall, the Combined Site Edge Model (CSEM), a single-site MKM accounting for site occupancy and cross-facet interactions, most closely approximates PB-MKM predictions. All models predict similar kinetics when surfaces are clean or primarily occupied by monodentate species. This work provides practical guidance for selecting MKM frameworks for undercoordinated catalytic surfaces and highlights the critical role of modeling assumptions in catalytic predictions.

(211) facet↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving ICARUS Track Reconstruction Algorithms

The ICARUS experiment is part of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab. The main goal of the experiment is to investigate the possibility of sterile neutrinos in the O(1 eV) mass region and provide clarification of the anomaly detected from the Liquid Scintillator Neutrino Detector (LSND) and MiniBooNE experiments. The ICARUS-T600 detector is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LAr-TPC), that can provide excellent 3D imaging and calorimetric reconstruction of any ionizing particles. This detection technique allows a detailed study of neutrino interactions, spanning a wide energy spectrum (from a few keV to several hundreds of GeV). The detector consists of two identical adjacent modules, filled with a total of 760 tons of ultra-pure liquid argon. Each module houses two LAr-TPCs separated by a common cathode with a maximum drift distance of 1.5 m, equivalent to about 1 ms drift time for the nominal $500$ V/m electric drift field. The anode is made of three parallel wire planes positioned 3 mm apart, where the stainless-steel wires are oriented on each plane at a different angle with respect to the horizontal direction ($+60^\degree$,$-60^\degree$,$0^\degree$). The first two planes (Induction 1 and Induction 2) provide a non-destructive charge measurement, whereas the ionization charge is fully collected by the last collection plane. In total, 53248 wires with a 3 mm pitch and length up to 9 m are installed in the detector. In the first stage of the reconstruction, segments of waveforms corresponding to physical signals (hits) are searched for in the deconvolved wire waveform with a threshold-based hit-finding algorithm. Each hit is then fitted with a Gaussian, whose area is proportional to the number of drift electrons generating the signal. In the second stage of the reconstruction, hits are passed as input to Pandora, a framework software composed of different pattern recognition algorithms, that performs a 3D reconstruction of the full image recorded in the collected event, including the identification of interaction vertices and tracks and showers inside the TPC. These are organized into a hierarchical structure (called slice) of particles generated starting from a primary interaction vertex. In some cases, related to the inefficiencies in the hit detection or excessive deflection of the particle trajectory, Pandora breaks the particle's track into two or more smaller pieces and considers each piece as an independent track. We studied this phenomenon focusing on primary muons from ν_μ CC interactions contained in a single module with a track at least 20 cm long, to exclude delta rays. The study determined that about $7-8\%$ of the muon tracks are broken. Approximately $80\%$ of the times, Pandora assigns all segments of the track to the same slice (intra-slice track split), while in the remaining $20\%$ of the cases, one of the segments is associated with another slice (extra-slice track split). To mitigate this phenomenon, we designed an algorithm that detects and stitches the tracks broken by Pandora for the intra-slice split. In Monte Carlo simulations, the algorithm showed an efficiency exceeding $80\%$ and a purity exceeding $93\%$.

Ricci, Alessandro Maria [Pisa U.; INFN, Pisa] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Procedure for Assessing I$_{c}(\varepsilon$) in Nb$_{3}$Sn/Bi-2212 Hybrid Magnets

The critical current of superconductors is commonly measured by testing unloaded wires under an external magnetic field. While stressed by intense Lorentz forces, the existing HTS/LTS superconductors are prone to a reduction in critical current before reaching their structural mechanical limit. Here, in this work, the magnetic and mechanical analysis of the FNAL 4-layer Bi-2212/Nb$_{3}$Sn hybrid dipole magnet is reported, aimed at predicting the critical current degradation for both the superconductors during powering at 16T. All the Rutherford cables in the coils of the hybrid magnet were modeled at the strand level in Ansys APDL with the heterogeneous cable model. Utilizing this detailed geometry, it was possible to evaluate the effects of strain on the critical current degradation for both the Nb$_{3}$Sn and Bi-2212 superconductors under the intense Lorentz forces. The analysis presented in this paper integrates strain-dependent critical current laws, with parameters derived from experimental data, to simulate the hybrid magnet's performance for all possible current-powering configurations. The proposed methodology enables a detailed assessment of conductor integrity and I$_{C}(\varepsilon$) reduction in existing hybrid magnet designs, providing a versatile and rigorous framework for optimizing future high-field hybrid magnets.

D'Agliano, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2026

Production of muonic kaon atoms at high-energy colliders

We develop a framework for the formation of exotic muonic kaon atoms ($K\mu$) in semileptonic $D^{0}$ decays, using the effective weak Hamiltonian, a helicity-based treatment of the leptonic current, and a nonrelativistic bound-state projection. The resulting branching ratio, $\mathrm{BR}(D^{0}\!\to(K\mu )\nu_{\mu})=2.29\times10^{-10}$, is implemented in a ROOT-based code to estimate yields at RHIC, LHC, and STCF. We show quantitatively that $K\mu$ atoms—also produced through coalescence in the quark--gluon plasma (QGP)—provide a sensitive probe of low-momentum primordial muons and early-time electromagnetic radiation, offering complementary constraints in an otherwise unexplored phase space for thermal dilepton and photon emission. Newly estimated dissociation cross sections in detector material indicate that secondary‑vertex reconstruction should be experimentally feasible, allowing clean experimental identification of the atoms. Projected yields from QGP coalescence in LHC and RHIC heavy-ion collisions, and from $D^{0}$ decays in LHC high-luminosity $p+p$ collisions indicate that the first observation of $K\mu$ atoms is within reach. Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. Article funded by SCOAP3 and published under licence by Chinese Physical Society and the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science and the Institute of Modern Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and IOP Publishing Ltd.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular shifts in dissolved organic matter along a burn severity continuum for common land cover types in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Increasing wildfire severity is of growing concern in the western United States, with consequences for the production, composition, and mobilization of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from terrestrial to aquatic systems. Our current understanding of wildfire impacted DOM (often termed pyrogenic DOM) composition is largely built from temperature-based studies that can be difficult to extrapolate to field conditions, which are often defined by ‘burn severity’, or the post-wildfire impact observed at a site. Thus, burn severity can encapsulate a broader range of fire and environmental conditions not exclusive to temperature. Biogeochemical studies that describe DOM along burn severity continuums remain limited but are needed to better link DOM composition with field conditions post-fire. Here, in this study, we addressed this need with an experimental open air burn simulation that generated chars from vegetation representative of major land cover types in the western United States. The chars were leached to simulate DOM mobilization potential. The DOM composition was characterized by ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry (HR-MS) and UV/VIS absorbance and fluorescence. Our results indicated that the shifts of DOM production and composition along a burn-severity gradient depends on the land cover type that was burned, with the degree of change dependent on the composition of the starting parent vegetation material. Fluorescence signatures indicated a strong convergence across land cover types to more aromatic DOM with increasing severity, while HR-MS indicated an increase in the production of aromatic nitrogen containing DOM with increasing severity. Results from this study enhance our ability to describe DOM composition in a framework that can be more directly related with field and remote-sensing based metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Control of Permanent Porosity in Type 3 Porous Liquids via Solvent Clustering

Porous liquids (PLs) are an exciting new class of materials for carbon capture due to their high gas adsorption capacity and ease of industrial implementation. They are composed of sorbent particles suspended in a nonadsorbed solvent, forming a liquid with permanent porosity. While PLs have a vast number of potential compositions based on the number of solvents and sorbent materials available, most of the research has been focused on the selection of the sorbent rather than the solvent. Therefore, PL design criteria on the supramolecular structures of the solvent are explored to create a fundamental understanding of how the solvent enables PL formation for rapid discovery of new PL compositions. Atomistic molecular dynamics simulation of eight solvents with a range of molecular sizes, shapes, and intramolecular bonding was performed, identifying that the shape and size of molecular clusters formed in the solvent are the driving predictor of PL formation rather than the size of the individual solvent molecule. The results demonstrate a significant departure from common approaches to PL formation based on the steric exclusion of solvent molecules from the sorbent via the size of the pore aperture. A modeling and experimental validation study further supports these findings. In conclusion, through this computational material design study, a previously unexplored mechanism in PL formation, solvent–solvent clustering, is identified as a critical factor for the accelerated discovery of liquid phase carbon capture materials.

Carbon capture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupling of Lipid Peroxidation and Criegee Intermediate Mediated Autoxidation in the Heterogeneous Oxidation of Linoleic Acid Aerosols

Autoxidation is an established mechanism for the degradation of organic molecules, which is relevant in the atmosphere, combustion processes, the environment, and the rancidification of lipids (commonly known as lipid peroxidation). Autoxidation proceeds via radical chain reactions involving hydroxyl (•OH), peroxy (RO2•), and alkoxy radicals, which are also prominent oxidants in the atmosphere. Recent reports have provided evidence for an alternative autoxidation mechanism driven instead by Criegee intermediates (CIs), which are produced from the reaction of β-hydroxy peroxy radicals (β-OH-RO2•). This work evaluates the contributions of these two mechanisms in the •OH initiated heterogeneous oxidation of linoleic acid (LA) aerosols. Reaction kinetics and product distributions are monitored using a vacuum ultraviolet photoionization aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer. To explain the observed kinetics, a kinetic model is developed that incorporates both the conventional peroxidation and alternative CI-mediated autoxidation mechanisms. We observe that the CI-mediated autoxidation pathways enhance the heterogeneous autoxidation rate, while the peroxidation reactions, although present, contributes less to the overall oxidation rate. α-Acyloxyalkyl hydroperoxides (AAHPs) are identified as key indicators for bimolecular reactions of CI with LA, highlighting the role of LA as a CI scavenger. Moreover, the measured functionalized LA products with hydroxyl or carbonyl group(s), serve as markers for the peroxidation reactions. In summary, this work presents a quantitative framework to understand the coupled reaction network of •OH, RO2•, β-OH-RO2• radicals, and CI in driving heterogeneous autoxidation, which is crucial for understanding degradation mechanisms of organic molecules in the environment and atmosphere.

Criegee intermediate↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preparation of Neptunyl and Plutonyl Acetates To Access Nonaqueous Transuranium Coordination Chemistry

Uranyl diacetate dihydrate is a useful reagent for the preparation of uranyl (UO 2 2+ ) coordination complexes, as it is a well-defined stoichiometric compound featuring moderately basic acetates that can facilitate protonolysis reactivity, unlike other anions commonly used in synthetic actinide chemistry such as halides or nitrate. Despite these attractive features, analogous neptunium (Np) and plutonium (Pu) compounds are unknown to date. Here, in this study, a modular synthetic route is reported for accessing stoichiometric neptunyl(VI) and plutonyl(VI) diacetate compounds that can serve as starting materials for transuranic coordination chemistry. The new NpO 2 2+ and PuO 2 2+ complexes, as well as a corresponding molecular UO 2 2+ complex, are isomorphous in the solid state, and in solution show similar solubility properties that facilitate their use in synthesis. In both solid and solution state, the +VI oxidation state (O.S.) is maintained, as demonstrated by vibrational and optical spectroscopy, confirming that acetate anions stabilize the oxidizing, high-valent +VI states of Np and Pu as they do for the more stable U(VI). All three acetate salts readily react with a model diprotic ligand, affording incorporation of U(VI), Np(VI), and Pu(VI) cores into molecular coordination compounds that occurs concomitantly with elimination of acetic acid; the new complexes are high-valent, yet overall charge neutral, facilitating entry into nonaqueous chemistry by rational synthesis. Computational studies reveal that the dianionic ligand framework assists in stabilizing the +VI O.S. via donation to the 5f shells of the actinides, highlighting the potential usefulness of protonolysis reactivity toward preparation of stabilized high-valent transuranic species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of Numerical Tools for Calculating Reactivity Feedback in Sodium Fast Reactors Using SEFOR Experimental Data

The Southwest Experimental Fast Oxide Reactor (SEFOR) was an experimental sodium-cooled fast breeder reactor operated from 1969 to 1972 with experiments designed to measure Doppler reactivity feedback in a wide temperature range from around 350 °F to temperatures approaching the melting point of mixed oxide fuel of around 5000 °F, providing valuable data for code validations. Co-supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) Fast Reactor Program (FRP) and the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the SEFOR benchmark project focused on using the experimental data to validate numerical tools that are used in industry and academia to design and license sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs). By the end of FY-25, substantial progress was achieved in the SEFOR benchmark study. A variety of numerical tools commonly used for modeling SFRs were applied to develop models for SEFOR core configurations I-D, I-E, I-I, and I-J. These included Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP, Serpent, and Shift; deterministic codes such as the legacy Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) suite and the high-fidelity NEAMS code Griffin; and the system analysis code SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS). Using these models, both SEFOR zero-power experiments and power-ascending tests were successfully simulated. Comparisons were performed against experimental measurements of core criticalities, reflector worth, kinetics parameters (Λ/βeff), isothermal reactivity feedback (from 350 °F to 760 °F at zero power), and power-ascending reactivity feedback (as power increased from 0.4 MW to 17 MW). In general, these comparisons demonstrated very good agreement between numerical results and experimental data. In Fiscal Year 26 (FY-26), the SEFOR benchmark project will continue to address the modeling issues identified in FY-25. Effort will focus on the simulation of reactivity insertion transients in SEFOR core II using the ARC/SAS model. Future work will also focus on incorporating BISON into the SEFOR core modeling process to enable the first Multiphysics simulations of the isothermal tests based on the MOOSE framework.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Proton, Electron, and Hydrogen-Atom Transfer Thermodynamics of the Metal–Organic Framework, Ti-MIL-125, Are Intrinsically Correlated to the Structural Disorder

Interfacial charge transfer reactions involving protons and/or electrons are fundamental to heterogeneous catalysis and many other reactions relevant to energy, chemical, and biological sectors. Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) with redox-active metal-oxo nodes have emerged as candidate materials to examine these reactions with near-atomic-level precision, given their crystalline nature. Here, we employed a colloidally stable, Ti-based MOF, Ti-MIL-125, with different crystal sizes to examine catalytically relevant charge transfer thermodynamics. The Ti 8 (μ 2 -O) 8 (μ 2 -OH) 4 nodes structurally mimic TiO 2 , which has shown some PCET reactivity toward reactions of H 2 , O 2 , and others. In this report, we have demonstrated that a change in crystal size induces different amounts of structural disorder to the Ti-oxo node, further changing the thermodynamics of proton/electron/hydrogen-atom transfer reactions. Using electrochemical open-circuit potential (E OCP ) measurements, we have determined that all crystallites undergo a 1H + /1e – redox reaction, which, given the stoichiometry, can be considered as a net H atom transfer (HAT) reaction. The thermodynamics of this HAT reaction, the Ti 3+ O–H bond dissociation free energy (BDFE), was dependent on the crystal size of the MOF, as the decrease in crystal size induced more structural disorder. Our computational calculations have indicated that this difference in BDFE is due to a local change in the geometry of Ti cations, rather than the commonly invoked defects, such as the “missing-linker” defect sites. Individual proton/electron transfer (PT/ET) thermodynamics were also highly dependent on the crystal sizes. These were probed using pK a or band gaps (E g ), respectively. These findings suggest that, particularly when MOFs are nanosized with a large amount of structural disorder, they should no longer be considered “true” single-site catalysts; this is an implicit, but widespread assumption within the MOF-based catalysis field. Implications of these findings will be contrasted with structurally similar metal oxides like TiO 2 and other redox-active MOFs.

Bond dissociation free energy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimal binning of correlated measurements

Experimental measurements are commonly represented on a discrete grid, requiring a balance between granularity and statistical noise. Two strategies have traditionally been used to improve such representations: selecting an appropriate bin width to control discretization error and applying kernel-based smoothing to suppress fluctuations. Despite their shared goal, these approaches have largely developed independently, without a unified statistical description of how discretization and correlation jointly determine measurement precision. Here, we extend the discussion of optimal interval averaging to a correlation-aware setting by Gaussian process regression, which explicitly accounts for correlations among neighboring bins. Starting from first principles, we derive the mean-squared error of discretized measurements and obtain closed-form asymptotic expressions for the optimal bin width and correlation length. When recast in reduced variables, the theory reveals distinct universal scaling laws governing the error in the correlation-free and correlation-controlled regimes. Characterized by intrinsically smooth intensity profiles and counting-based statistics, neutron scattering measurements are well suited for demonstrating the enhanced error contraction enabled by inter-bin correlations. We show that such improvement is achievable over the experimentally accessible Q-range and across multiple instruments and material systems. These results show that explicitly accounting for correlations systematically reshapes the limits of precision in discretized, noise-limited measurements. More broadly, the framework provides a transferable statistical foundation for optimizing data representation, inference, and experimental design across the physical and data sciences.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗