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At least 379 records · Page 21

A consistent, Bayesian, approach to the cross section probability distribution in the unresolved resonance region

The cross sections of neutron-induced reactions can be divided into three energy ranges: the resolved resonance region (RRR), the unresolved resonance region (URR), and the fast region. In general, the cross sections in the URR show significant fluctuations that cannot be predicted and cannot be experimentally resolved, thus, it is commonly assumed that the cross section at a specific energy is given by a probability distribution function (PDF) over a range of values that can span several orders of magnitude. The current methodology used to describe such behavior is to construct the PDF by stochastically generating resonance ladders and numerically measuring the PDF. The resonance ladders are sampled using known resonance statistical properties and average resonance widths and spacings extrapolated from the RRR. Although this is a standard and widely used technique, it is computationally very expensive, therefore, an alternative, analytical, approach would be preferable due to the considerable speed up of the computational time in real life applications. Moreover, the current methodology does not take into account existing experimental data, such for total and capture cross sections, that are available for many nuclei. Finally, this approach was developed to be used in reactor-scale applications and it is not suited for use in single-event applications. In this work we will rethink the entire approach to the PDF construction using a Bayesian mindset. This will allow us to provide a different definition of the PDF that allows a much faster calculation of the higher-temperature PDFs and a proper combination of theoretical and experimental PDFs following the probability theory. We will also show that our definition is well suited for single-event applications and we will make an explicit connection between our method and the standard approach. We do this by showing that the central limit theorem applies and our method leads to the same PDF obtained with the standard methodology, for a large number of events per history.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison of electron transport calculations in warm dense matter using the Ziman formula

The Ziman formulation of electrical conductivity is tested in warm and hot dense matter using the pseudo-atom molecular dynamics method. Several implementation options that have been widely used in the literature are systematically tested through a comparison to the accurate, but expensive Kohn–Sham density functional theory molecular dynamics (KS-DFT-MD) calculations. As a result, the comparison is made for several elements and mixtures and for a wide range of temperatures and densities, and reveals a preferred method that generally gives very good agreement with the KS-DFT-MD results, but at a fraction of the computational cost.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bayesian Treed Multivariate Gaussian Process with Adaptive Design: Application to a Carbon Capture Unit

Computer experiments (numerical simulations) are widely used in scientific research to study and predict the behavior of complex systems, which usually have responses consisting of a set of distinct outputs. The computational cost of the simulations at high resolution are often expensive and become impractical for parametric studies at different input values. To overcome these difficulties we develop a Bayesian treed multivariate Gaussian process (BTMGP) as an extension of the Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) in order to model and evaluate a multivariate process. A suitable choice of covariance function and the prior distributions facilitates the different Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) movements. We utilize this model to sequentially sample the input space for the most informative values, taking into account model uncertainty and expertise gained. A simulation study demonstrates the use of the proposed method and compares it with alternative approaches. We apply the sequential sampling technique and BTMGP to model the multiphase flow in a full scale regenerator of a carbon capture unit. The application presented in this paper is an important tool for research into carbon dioxide emissions from thermal power plants.

Konomi, Bledar A.↗

Classifier-guided sampling for discrete variable, discontinuous design space exploration: Convergence and computational performance

A classifier-guided sampling (CGS) method is introduced for solving engineering design optimization problems with discrete and/or continuous variables and continuous and/or discontinuous responses. The method merges concepts from metamodel-guided sampling and population-based optimization algorithms. The CGS method uses a Bayesian network classifier for predicting the performance of new designs based on a set of known observations or training points. Unlike most metamodeling techniques, however, the classifier assigns a categorical class label to a new design, rather than predicting the resulting response in continuous space, and thereby accommodates nondifferentiable and discontinuous functions of discrete or categorical variables. The CGS method uses these classifiers to guide a population-based sampling process towards combinations of discrete and/or continuous variable values with a high probability of yielding preferred performance. Accordingly, the CGS method is appropriate for discrete/discontinuous design problems that are ill-suited for conventional metamodeling techniques and too computationally expensive to be solved by population-based algorithms alone. In addition, the rates of convergence and computational properties of the CGS method are investigated when applied to a set of discrete variable optimization problems. Results show that the CGS method significantly improves the rate of convergence towards known global optima, on average, when compared to genetic algorithms.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Approximating the Generalized Voronoi Diagram of Closely Spaced Objects

We present an algorithm to compute an approximation of the generalized Voronoi diagram (GVD) on arbitrary collections of 2D or 3D geometric objects. In particular, we focus on datasets with closely spaced objects; GVD approximation is expensive and sometimes intractable on these datasets using previous algorithms. With our approach, the GVD can be computed using commodity hardware even on datasets with many, extremely tightly packed objects. Our approach is to subdivide the space with an octree that is represented with an adjacency structure. We then use a novel adaptive distance transform to compute the distance function on octree vertices. The computed distance field is sampled more densely in areas of close object spacing, enabling robust and parallelizable GVD surface generation. We demonstrate our method on a variety of data and show example applications of the GVD in 2D and 3D.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Updated Phase Calculation Method for Metallic Nuclear Fuel in BISON

Zirconium based metallic nuclear fuel undergoes significant redistribution of its constituents, resulting in several different phases present within a single fuel pin. Primarily dominated by the movement of zirconium in U-Pu-Zr and UZr fuels, phase changes result in a three (or more) zoned fuel structure clearly visible during post-irradiation examination (PIE). Each of these regions may posses differing material properties, requiring knowledge of the relative concentration of each phase in order for fuel performance codes to capture the relevant fuel behavior. The model described here was implemented into the fuel performance code BISON, similar to previous work for modeling zirconium redistribution in U-Pu-Zr fuel. However, the modules have since been updated with several key assumptions for easier use in future zirconium redistribution work and other phase-dependent material properties implementation, as discussed in the following sections. A new material model has been implemented in BISON to calculate the fractional phase concentrations as a function of temperature and zirconium concentration. Instead of smoothing the material properties to ensure numerical convergence, the new model smoothes the phase contributions directly, allowing easier implementation of material properties. By comparing the zirconium distribution for different smoothing parameters, it was shown that the smoothing parameters utilized here was adequate for the parameters of interest, while decreasing computational expense. The calculated phase information has been used to determine phase-dependent diffusivities, and is available for other phase-dependent properties. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Enhanced Data Efficiency Using Deep Neural Networks and Gaussian Processes for Aerodynamic Design Optimization

Adjoint-based optimization methods are attractive for aerodynamic shape design primarily due to their computational costs being independent of the dimensionality of the input space and their ability to generate high-fidelity gradients that can then be used in a gradient-based optimizer. This makes them very well suited for high-fidelity simulation based aerodynamic shape optimization of highly parametrized geometries such as aircraft wings. However, the development of adjoint-based solvers involve careful mathematical treatment and their implementation require detailed software development. Furthermore, they can become prohibitively expensive when multiple optimization problems are being solved, each requiring multiple restarts to circumvent local optima. In this work, we propose a machine learning enabled, surrogate-based framework that replaces the expensive adjoint solver, without compromising on predicting predictive accuracy. Specifically, we first train a deep neural network (DNN) from training data generated from evaluating the high-fidelity simulation model on a model-agnostic design of experiments on the geometry shape parameters. The optimum shape may then be computed by using a gradient-based optimizer coupled with the trained DNN. Subsequently, we also perform a gradient-free Bayesian optimization, where the trained DNN is used as the prior mean. We observe that the latter framework (DNN-BO) improves upon the DNN-only based optimization strategy for the same computational cost. Overall, this framework predicts the true optimum with very high accuracy, while requiring far fewer high-fidelity function calls compared to the adjoint-based method. Furthermore, we show that multiple optimization problems can be solved with the same machine learning model with high accuracy, to amortize the offline costs associated with constructing our models. Our methodology finds applications in the early stages of aerospace design. (C) 2021 Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Renganathan, S. Ashwin↗

Accelerated coupled Monte Carlo-Thermal hydraulic calculations using a hybrid GTF-diffusion-based prediction block: first results

Accurate predictions of spatial power and temperature distributions require the coupling of a neutron transport solver with a thermal-hydraulic (TH) feedback. Nowadays, Monte Carlo (MC) codes are widely coupled to TH solvers, typically via a Picard iteration (PI) method, due to the higher fidelity that such frameworks can produce. To speed up a PI, a prediction step can produce an improved initial guess for a source distribution and feed it to the MC code. Recent work investigated a prediction step that uses generalized transfer functions (GTFs) to predict the macroscopic cross sections' variations following a perturbation in TH properties, such as coolant density. The previous method also relied on first order perturbation (FOP) theory to predict perturbed power profiles, rather than using an expensive MC iterate. The implemented FOP method relied on generating a fission matrix from which the forward and adjoint Eigenmodes were extracted and later used to for power calculations. The generation of the fission matrix can introduce a significant computational overhead, therefore undermining the performance of the proposed hybrid technique when applied to high-dimensional problems, e.g., full core calculations. This work attempts to improve the GTF-FOP prediction step by replacing the FOP solver with a nodal diffusion solver, thus eliminating the need to calculate a fission matrix. The GTF-diffusion step was tested for various moderator density perturbations. In each case, the predicted power distribution showed good agreement with the reference case. The latter is attributed to the generally good prediction of most spatially distributed macroscopic cross sections, except the transport cross section, which will become the focus of future work. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Deep Learning Approaches to Surrogates for Solving the Diffusion Equation for Mechanistic Real-World Simulations

In many mechanistic medical, biological, physical, and engineered spatiotemporal dynamic models the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), especially for diffusion, fluid flow and mechanical relaxation, can make simulations impractically slow. Biological models of tissues and organs often require the simultaneous calculation of the spatial variation of concentration of dozens of diffusing chemical species. One clinical example where rapid calculation of a diffusing field is of use is the estimation of oxygen gradients in the retina, based on imaging of the retinal vasculature, to guide surgical interventions in diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, the ability to predict blood perfusion and oxygenation may one day guide clinical interventions in diverse settings, i.e., from stent placement in treating heart disease to BOLD fMRI interpretation in evaluating cognitive function (Xie et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020). Since the quasi-steady-state solutions required for fast-diffusing chemical species like oxygen are particularly computationally costly, we consider the use of a neural network to provide an approximate solution to the steady-state diffusion equation. Machine learning surrogates, neural networks trained to provide approximate solutions to such complicated numerical problems, can often provide speed-ups of several orders of magnitude compared to direct calculation. Surrogates of PDEs could enable use of larger and more detailed models than are possible with direct calculation and can make including such simulations in real-time or near-real time workflows practical. Creating a surrogate requires running the direct calculation tens of thousands of times to generate training data and then training the neural network, both of which are computationally expensive. Often the practical applications of such models require thousands to millions of replica simulations, for example for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification, each of which gains speed from surrogate use and rapidly recovers the up-front costs of surrogate generation. We use a Convolutional Neural Network to approximate the stationary solution to the diffusion equation in the case of two equal-diameter, circular, constant-value sources located at random positions in a two-dimensional square domain with absorbing boundary conditions. Such a configuration caricatures the chemical concentration field of a fast-diffusing species like oxygen in a tissue with two parallel blood vessels in a cross section perpendicular to the two blood vessels. To improve convergence during training, we apply a training approach that uses roll-back to reject stochastic changes to the network that increase the loss function. The trained neural network approximation is about 1000 times faster than the direct calculation for individual replicas. Because different applications will have different criteria for acceptable approximation accuracy, we discuss a variety of loss functions and accuracy estimators that can help select the best network for a particular application. We briefly discuss some of the issues we encountered with overfitting, mismapping of the field values and the geometrical conditions that lead to large absolute and relative errors in the approximate solution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Efficient Learning of Accurate Surrogates for Simulations of Complex Systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse, or dynamic data. We introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation of state model can be reliably auto-generated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques

Abstract. Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data–model integration. Efficient data–model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables is computationally intensive because it involves a large number of expensive ESM simulations. In this effort, we propose an efficient surrogate method capable of using a few ESM runs to build an accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system of model outputs over large spatial and temporal domains. We first use singular value decomposition to reduce the output dimensions and then use Bayesian optimization techniques to generate an accurate neural network surrogate model based on limited ESM simulation samples. Our machine-learning-based surrogate methods can build and evaluate a large surrogate system of many variables quickly. Thus, whenever the quantities of interest change, such as a different objective function, a new site, and a longer simulation time, we can simply extract the information of interest from the surrogate system without rebuilding new surrogates, which significantly reduces computational efforts. We apply the proposed method to a regional ecosystem model to approximate the relationship between eight model parameters and 42 660 carbon flux outputs. Results indicate that using only 20 model simulations, we can build an accurate surrogate system of the 42 660 variables, wherein the consistency between the surrogate prediction and actual model simulation is 0.93 and the mean squared error is 0.02. This highly accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system will greatly enhance the computational efficiency of data–model integration to improve predictions and advance our understanding of the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accelerated Coupled Monte Carlo-Thermal Hydraulic Calculations using a Hybrid GTF-Diffusion-based Prediction Block: First Results

Accurate predictions of spatial power and temperature distributions require the coupling of a neutron transport solver with a thermal-hydraulic (TH) feedback. Nowadays, Monte Carlo (MC) codes are widely coupled to TH solvers, typically via a Picard iteration (PI) method, due to the higher fidelity that such frameworks can produce. To speed up a PI, a prediction step can produce an improved initial guess for a source distribution and feed it to the MC code. Recent work [1, 2] investigated a prediction step that uses generalized transfer functions (GTFs) to predict the macroscopic cross sections’ variations following a perturbation in TH properties, such as coolant density. The previous method also relied on first order perturbation (FOP) theory to predict perturbed power profiles, rather than using an expensive MC iterate. The implemented FOP method relied on generating a fission matrix from which the forward and adjoint eigenmodes were extracted and later used to for power calculations. The generation of the fission matrix can introduce a significant computational overhead, therefore undermining the performance of the proposed hybrid technique when applied to high-dimensional problems, e.g., full core calculations. This work attempts to improve the GTF-FOP prediction step by replacing the FOP solver with a nodal diffusion solver, thus eliminating the need to calculate a fission matrix. The GTF-diffusion step was tested for various moderator density perturbations. In each case, the predicted power distribution showed good agreement with the reference case. The latter is attributed to the generally good prediction of most spatially distributed macroscopic cross sections, except the transport cross section, which will become the focus of future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Stochastic Reduced-Order Model for Statistical Microstructure Descriptors Evolution

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker–Planck equation. In this work, we discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker–Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker–Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient learning of accurate surrogates for simulations of complex systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse or dynamic data. Here, we introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data, and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation-of-state model can be reliably autogenerated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of burst and recombination models for Monte Carlo transport of interacting carriers in a-Se x-ray detectors on Swank noise

Purpose: The authors describe the modification to a previously developed Monte Carlo model of semiconductor direct x-ray detector required for studying the effect of burst and recombination algorithms on detector performance. This work provides insight into the effect of different charge generation models for a-Se detectors on Swank noise and recombination fraction. Methods: The proposed burst and recombination models are implemented in the Monte Carlo simulation package, ARTEMIS, developed byFang et al. [“Spatiotemporal Monte Carlo transport methods in x-ray semiconductor detectors: Application to pulse-height spectroscopy in a-Se,” Med. Phys. 39(1), 308–319 (2012)]. The burst model generates a cloud of electron-hole pairs based on electron velocity, energy deposition, and material parameters distributed within a spherical uniform volume (SUV) or on a spherical surface area (SSA). A simple first-hit (FH) and a more detailed but computationally expensive nearest-neighbor (NN) recombination algorithms are also described and compared. Results: Simulated recombination fractions for a single electron-hole pair show good agreement with Onsager model for a wide range of electric field, thermalization distance, and temperature. The recombination fraction and Swank noise exhibit a dependence on the burst model for generation of many electron-hole pairs from a single x ray. The Swank noise decreased for the SSA compared to the SUV model at 4 V/μm, while the recombination fraction decreased for SSA compared to the SUV model at 30 V/μm. The NN and FH recombination results were comparable. Conclusions: Results obtained with the ARTEMIS Monte Carlo transport model incorporating drift and diffusion are validated with the Onsager model for a single electron-hole pair as a function of electric field, thermalization distance, and temperature. For x-ray interactions, the authors demonstrate that the choice of burst model can affect the simulation results for the generation of many electron-hole pairs. The SSA model is more sensitive to the effect of electric field compared to the SUV model and that the NN and FH recombination algorithms did not significantly affect simulation results.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Rigorous Data Fusion for Computationally Expensive Simulations

This manuscript comprises the final report for the 1-year, FY19 LDRD project "Rigorous Data Fusion for Computationally Expensive Simulations," wherein an alternative approach to Bayesian calibration was developed based a new sampling technique called VoroSpokes. Vorospokes is a novel quadrature and sampling framework defined with respect to Voronoi tessellations of bounded domains in $R^d$ developed within this project. In this work, we first establish local quadrature and sampling results on convex polytopes using randomly directed rays, or spokes, to approximate the quantities of interest for a specified target function. A theoretical justification for both procedures is provided along with empirical results demonstrating the unbiased convergence in the resulting estimates/samples. The local quadrature and sampling procedures are then extended to global procedures defined on more general domains by applying the local results to the cells of a Voronoi tessellation covering the domain in consideration. We then demonstrate how the proposed global sampling procedure can be used to define a natural framework for adaptively constructing Voronoi Piecewise Surrogate (VPS) approximations based on local error estimates. Finally, we show that the adaptive VPS procedure can be used to form a surrogate model approximation to a specified, potentially unnormalized, density function, and that the global sampling procedure can be used to efficiently draw independent samples from the surrogate density in parallel. The performance of the resulting VoroSpokes sampling framework is assessed on a collection of Bayesian inference problems and is shown to provide highly accurate posterior predictions which align with the results obtained using traditional methods such as Gibbs sampling and random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Importantly, the proposed framework provides a foundation for performing Bayesian inference tasks which is entirely independent from the theory of Markov chains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Silvabase: A flexible data file management system

The need for a more flexible and efficient data file management system for mission planning in the Mission Operations Laboratory (EO) at MSFC has spawned the development of Silvabase. Silvabase is a new data file structure based on a B+ tree data structure. This data organization allows for efficient forward and backward sequential reads, random searches, and appends to existing data. It also provides random insertions and deletions with reasonable efficiency, utilization of storage space well but not at the expense of speed, and performance of these functions on a large volume of data. Mission planners required that some data be keyed and manipulated in ways not found in a commercial product. Mission planning software is currently being converted to use Silvabase in the Spacelab and Space Station Mission Planning Systems. Silvabase runs on a Digital Equipment Corporation's popular VAX/VMS computers in VAX Fortran. Silvabase has unique features involving time histories and intervals such as in operations research. Because of its flexibility and unique capabilities, Silvabase could be used in almost any government or commercial application that requires efficient reads, searches, and appends in medium to large amounts of almost any kind of data.

Lambing, Steven J.↗

Preliminary In-Flight Loads Analysis of In-Line Launch Vehicles using the VLOADS 1.4 Program

To calculate structural loads of in-line launch vehicles for preliminary design, a very useful computer program is VLOADS 1.4. This software may also be used to calculate structural loads for upper stages and planetary transfer vehicles. Launch vehicle inputs such as aerodynamic coefficients, mass properties, propellants, engine thrusts, and performance data are compiled and analyzed by VLOADS to produce distributed shear loads, bending moments, axial forces, and vehicle line loads as a function of X-station along the vehicle's length. Interface loads, if any, and translational accelerations are also computed. The major strength of the software is that it enables quick turnaround analysis of structural loads for launch vehicles during the preliminary design stage of its development. This represents a significant improvement over the alternative-the time-consuming, and expensive chore of developing finite element models. VLOADS was developed as a Visual BASIC macro in a Microsoft Excel 5.0 work book on a Macintosh. VLOADS has also been implemented on a PC computer using Microsoft Excel 7.0a for Windows 95. VLOADS was developed in 1996, and the current version was released to COSMIC, NASA's Software Technology Transfer Center, in 1997. The program is a copyrighted work with all copyright vested in NASA.

Graham, J. B.↗