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At least 379 records · Page 21

The Effect of Lightning NOx Production on Surface Ozone in the Continental United States

Lightning NO(x) emissions calculated using the US National Lightning Detection Network data were found to account for 30% of the total NO(x) emissions for July August 2004, a period chosen both for having higher lightning NO(x) production and high ozone levels, thus maximizing the likelihood that such emissions could impact peak ozone levels. Including such emissions led to modest, but sometimes significant increases in simulated surface ozone when using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Three model simulations were performed, two with the addition of lightning NO(x) emissions, and one without. Domain-wide daily maximum 8-h ozone changes due to lightning NO(x) were less than 2 ppbv in 71 % of the cases with a maximum of 10 ppbv; whereas the difference in 1-h ozone was less than 2 ppbv in 77% of the cases with a maximum of 6 ppbv. Daily maximum 1-h and 8-h ozone for grids containing O3 monitoring stations changed slightly, with more than 43% of the cases differing less than 2 ppbv. The greatest differences were 42 ppbv for both 1-h and 8-h O3 , though these tended to be on days of lower ozone. Lightning impacts on the season-wide maximum 1-h and 8-h averaged ozone decreased starting from the 1 st to 4th highest values (an average of 4th highest, 8-h values is used for attainment demonstration in the US). Background ozone values from the y-intercept of O3 versus NO(z) curve were 42.2 and 43.9 ppbv for simulations without and with lightning emissions, respectively. Results from both simulations with lightning NO(x) suggest that while North American lightning production of NO(x) can lead to significant local impacts on a few occasions, they will have a relatively small impact on typical maximum levels and determination of Policy Relevant Background levels.

Kaynak, B.↗

Comparison of Weekly Cycle of NO2 Satellite Retrievals and NO(x) Emission Inventories for the Continental United States

Spatially resolved weekly NO2 variations are obtained from 2003 to 2005 Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) tropospheric NO2 columns for three different types of regions: urban, rural, and rural-point (rural with significant electricity generation unit (EGU) emissions). Regions are compared for magnitudes and weekly profiles. Rural regions do not show any weekly pattern, whereas urban areas show a distinct decrease on the weekends. Rural regions with EGUs show a slight decrease on Sundays. When compared with estimated mobile and stationary nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) emissions from the year 2004 for seven cities, the satellite data have greater variation during weekdays (Monday-Friday). Overall comparisons show that SCIAMACHY derived NO2 correlate well with estimated NO(x) emissions for urban and rural but less for rural-point regions.

Kaynak, B.↗

Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Streamflow Prediction in the Snowmelt Season: A Continental-Scale Analysis

In areas dominated by winter snowcover, the prediction of streamflow during the snowmelt season may benefit from three pieces of information: (i) the accurate prediction of weather variability (precipitation, etc.) leading up to and during the snowmelt season, (ii) estimates of the amount of snow present during the winter season, and (iii) estimates of the amount of soil moisture underlying the snowpack during the winter season. The importance of accurate meteorological predictions and wintertime snow estimates is obvious. The contribution of soil moisture to streamflow prediction is more subtle yet potentially very important. If the soil is dry below the snowpack, a significant fraction of the snowmelt may be lost to streamflow and potential reservoir storage, since it may infiltrate the soil instead for later evaporation. Such evaporative losses are presumably smaller if the soil below the snowpack is wet. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art land surface model to quantify the contribution of wintertime snow and soil moisture information -- both together and separately -- to skill in forecasting springtime streamflow. We find that soil moisture information indeed contributes significantly to streamflow prediction skill.

Reichle, Rolf↗

The Origin of Monsoons: The Role of Continental-Scale Landmass

In a challenge to the traditional explanation for the cause of monsoons Chao and Chen (JAS 2001) argued that land-sea thermal contrast is not necessary for the existence of monsoons. However, the question of whether land-sea thermal contrast plays any modifying role still exists. This study tries to answer that question. The result is a more complete theory of the origin of monsoons than that proposed by Chao and Chen. Two criticisms of the traditional explanation for the cause of monsoons do not apply to this theory. They are: 1) no explanation for monsoon onset and retreat, let alone the fact that monsoon onset is much faster than monsoon retreat, and 2) for the South Asian monsoon, land-sea thermal contrast is greatest just prior to monsoon onset, not at the height of the monsoon season. Land-sea thermal contrast acts as a facilitator for monsoon onset. If it does not exist, monsoon onset can still occur but at a later time. Our results are supported by GCM experiments.

Chao, Winston↗

Prediction of Hydrological Drought: What Can We Learn From Continental-Scale Offline Simulations?

Land surface model experiments are used to quantify, across the coterminous United States, the contributions (isolated and combined) of soil moisture and snowpack initialization to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts at multiple leads and for different start dates. Forecasted streamflows are compared to naturalized streamflow observations where available and to synthetic (model-generated) streamflow data elsewhere. We find that snow initialization has a major impact on skill in the mountainous western U.S. and in a portion of the northern Great Plains; a mid-winter (January 1) initialization of snow in these areas leads to significant skill in the spring melting season. Soil moisture initialization also contributes to skill, and although the maximum contributions are not as large as those seen for snow initialization, the soil moisture contributions extend across a much broader geographical area. Soil moisture initialization can contribute to skill at long leads (up to 5 or 6 months), particularly for forecasts issued during winter.

Koster, Randal↗

A Comparison of Satellite Based, Modeled Derived Daily Solar Radiation Data with Observed Data for the Continental US

Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these tools. Daily solar radiation (SRAD) data are especially problematic because the instruments require electronic integrators, accurate sensors are expensive, and calibration standards are seldom available. The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER; power.larc.nasa.gov) project at the NASA Langley Research Center estimates daily solar radiation based on data that are derived from satellite observations of outgoing visible radiances and atmospheric parameters based upon satellite observations and assimilation models. The solar data are available for a global 1 degree x 1 degree coordinate grid. SRAD can also be estimated based on attenuation of extraterrestrial radiation (Q0) using daily temperature and rainfall data to estimate the optical thickness of the atmosphere. This study compares daily solar radiation data from NASA/POWER (SRADNP) with instrument readings from 295 stations (SRADOB), as well as with values that were estimated with the WGENR solar generator. WGENR was used both with daily temperature and precipitation records from the stations reporting solar data and records from the NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), thus providing two additional sources of solar data, SRADWG and SRADCO. Values of SRADNP for different grid cells consistently showed higher correlations (typically 0.85 to 0.95) with SRADOB data than did SRADWG or SRADCO for sites within the corresponding cells. Mean values of SRADOB, SRADWG and SRADNP for sites within a grid cell usually were within 1 MJm-2d-1 of each other, but NASA/POWER values averaged 1.1 MJm-2d-1 lower than SRADOB. The magnitude of this bias was greater at lower latitudes and during summer months and may be at least partially explained by assumptions in ambient aerosol properties. Overall, the NASA/POWER solar radiation data are a promising resource for regional modeling studies where realistic accounting of historic variation is required.

White, Jeffrey W.↗

The Origin of Carbon-Bearing Volatiles in a Continental Hydrothermal System in the Great Basin: Water Chemistry and Isotope Characterizations

Hydrothermal systems on Earth are active centers in the crust where organic molecules can be synthesized biotically or abiotically under a wide range of physical and chemical conditions [1-3]. Not only are volatile species (CO, CO2, H2, and hydrocarbons) a reflection of deep-seated hydrothermal alteration processes, but they also form an important component of biological systems. Studying carbon-bearing fluids from hydrothermal systems is of specific importance to understanding (bio-)geochemical processes within these systems. With recent detection of methane in the martian atmosphere [4-7] and the possibility of its hydrothermal origin [8, 9], understanding the formation mechanisms of methane may provide constraints on the history of the martian aqueous environments and climate.

Fu, Qi↗

Impact of Water Withdrawals from Groundwater and Surface Water on Continental Water Storage Variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 cubic km/yr of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/yr of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.

Doell, Petra↗

Regional Climate and Variability of the Summertime Continental United States in Reanalyses

Understanding climate variability at regional scales is an important for research and societal needs. Atmospheric retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate multitudes of observing systems with numerical models to produce continuous data that include variables not easily observed, if at all. The breadth of variables as well as observational influence included in reanalyses make them ideal for investigating climate variability. In this paper, we assess NASA s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) regional variability in North America, specifically the United States, in conjunction with current satellite data reanalyses. Emphasis is placed on summertime precipitation because 1) it is a difficult parameter to capture in the most difficult season, 2) significant observational resources exist to benchmark comparisons, and 3) accurate assessment of precipitation variability is crucial to a multitude of sectors and applications. Likewise, we have also begun to evaluate surface air temperature. While precipitation biases are identified, year to year variability of the precipitation variations, in many cases, are quite reasonable. However, some spurious long term trends and sudden shifts in the time series are also identified. In surface air temperature, analysis of station observations provides ERA Interim a clear overall advantage. However, in a number of regions, all the reanalyses are quite comparable in variability and trend. In other regions, significant precipitation biases may occur, which has implications for the ancillary process data in a reanalysis, such as surface fluxes. We also characterize the reanalyses ability to capture variability related to ENSO. In general, the summertime variations of precipitation in the reanalyses are more highly correlated (positively) to ENSO (using ENSO34) than are the observations. The Northwestern US shows the largest positive correlations to ENSO34, and reanalyses agree with that, and correlate highly with the gauge observations there. Additional evaluation of the data assimilation using the MERRA Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) data, which consists of the assimilated observations as well as forecast an analysis error fields. This work represents an initial evaluation of using the MERRA reanalysis to study regional climate variations of the United States, and identifying its applied limitations

Bosilovich, M G.↗

Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

This paper and poster presented a description of the current real-time SPoRT-LIS run over the southeastern CONUS to provide high-resolution, land surface initialization grids for local numerical model forecasts at NWS forecast offices. The LIS hourly output also offers a supplemental dataset to aid in situational awareness for convective initiation forecasts, assessing flood potential, and monitoring drought at fine scales. It is a goal of SPoRT and several NWS forecast offices to expand the LIS to an entire CONUS domain, so that LIS output can be utilized by NWS Western Region offices, among others. To make this expansion cleanly so as to provide high-quality land surface output, SPoRT tested new precipitation datasets in LIS as an alternative forcing dataset to the current radar+gauge Stage IV product. Similar to the Stage IV product, the NMQ product showed comparable patterns of precipitation and soil moisture distribution, but suffered from radar gaps in the intermountain West, and incorrectly set values to zero instead of missing in the data-void regions of Mexico and Canada. The other dataset tested was the next-generation GOES-R QPE algorithm, which experienced a high bias in both coverage and intensity of accumulated precipitation relative to the control (NLDAS2), Stage IV, and NMQ simulations. The resulting root zone soil moisture was substantially higher in most areas.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Origin and Distribution of Water Contents in Continental and Oceanic Lithospheric Mantle

The water content distribution of the upper mantle will be reviewed as based on the peridotite record. The amount of water in cratonic xenoliths appears controlled by metasomatism while that of the oceanic mantle retains in part the signature of melting events. In both cases, the water distribution is heterogeneous both with depth and laterally, depending on localized water re-enrichments next to melt/fluid channels. The consequence of the water distribution on the rheology of the upper mantle and the location of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary will also be discussed.

Peslier, Anne H.↗

Using Air Temperature to Quantitatively Predict the MODIS Fractional Snow Cover Retrieval Errors over the Continental US (CONUS)

In the middle to high latitude and alpine regions, the seasonal snow pack can dominate the surface energy and water budgets due to its high albedo, low thermal conductivity, high emissivity, considerable spatial and temporal variability, and ability to store and then later release a winters cumulative snowfall (Cohen, 1994; Hall, 1998). With this in mind, the snow drought across the U.S. has raised questions about impacts on water supply, ski resorts and agriculture. Knowledge of various snow pack properties is crucial for short-term weather forecasts, climate change prediction, and hydrologic forecasting for producing reliable daily to seasonal forecasts. One potential source of this information is the multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) project (Mitchell et al., 2004). Real-time NLDAS products are used for drought monitoring to support the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and as initial conditions for a future NCEP drought forecast system. Additionally, efforts are currently underway to assimilate remotely-sensed estimates of land-surface states such as snowpack information into NLDAS. It is believed that this assimilation will not only produce improved snowpack states that better represent snow evolving conditions, but will directly improve the monitoring of drought.

MODIS↗

Extent of Low-accumulation 'Wind Glaze' Areas on the East Antarctic Plateau: Implications for Continental Ice Mass Balance

Persistent katabatic winds form widely distributed localized areas of near-zero net surface accumulation on the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) plateau. These areas have been called 'glaze' surfaces due to their polished appearance. They are typically 2-200 square kilometers in area and are found on leeward slopes of ice-sheet undulations and megadunes. Adjacent, leeward high-accumulation regions (isolated dunes) are generally smaller and do not compensate for the local low in surface mass balance (SMB). We use a combination of satellite remote sensing and field-gathered datasets to map the extent of wind glaze in the EAIS above 1500m elevation. Mapping criteria are derived from distinctive surface and subsurface characteristics of glaze areas resulting from many years of intense annual temperature cycling without significant burial. Our results show that 11.2 plus or minus 1.7%, or 950 plus or minus 143 x 10(exp 3) square kilometers, of the EAIS above 1500m is wind glaze. Studies of SMB interpolate values across glaze regions, leading to overestimates of net mass input. Using our derived wind-glaze extent, we estimate this excess in three recent models of Antarctic SMB at 46-82 Gt. The lowest-input model appears to best match the mean in regions of extensive wind glaze.

remote sensing↗

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗

Water Distribution in the Continental and Oceanic Upper Mantle

Nominally anhydrous minerals such as olivine, pyroxene and garnet can accommodate tens to hundreds of ppm H2O in the form of hydrogen bonded to structural oxygen in lattice defects. Although in seemingly small amounts, this water can significantly alter chemical and physical properties of the minerals and rocks. Water in particular can modify their rheological properties and its distribution in the mantle derives from melting and metasomatic processes and lithology repartition (pyroxenite vs peridotite). These effects will be examined here using Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR) water analyses on minerals from mantle xenoliths from cratons, plume-influenced cratons and oceanic settings. In particular, our results on xenoliths from three different cratons will be compared. Each craton has a different water distribution and only the mantle root of Kaapvaal has evidence for dry olivine at its base. This challenges the link between olivine water content and survival of Archean cratonic mantle, and questions whether xenoliths are representative of the whole cratonic mantle. We will also present our latest data on Hawaii and Tanzanian craton xenoliths which both suggest the intriguing result that mantle lithosphere is not enriched in water when it interacts with melts from deep mantle upwellings (plumes).

Peslier, Anne H.↗

Water Content of Earth's Continental Mantle Is Controlled by the Circulation of Fluids or Melts

A key mission of the ARES Directorate at JSC is to constrain models of the formation and geological history of terrestrial planets. Water is a crucial parameter to be measured with the aim to determine its amount and distribution in the interior of Earth, Mars, and the Moon. Most of that "water" is not liquid water per se, but rather hydrogen dissolved as a trace element in the minerals of the rocks at depth. Even so, the middle layer of differentiated planets, the mantle, occupies such a large volume and mass of each planet that when it is added at the planetary scale, oceans worth of water could be stored in its interior. The mantle is where magmas originate. Moreover, on Earth, the mantle is where the boundary between tectonic plates and the underlying asthenosphere is located. Even if mantle rocks in Earth typically contain less than 200 ppm H2O, such small quantities have tremendous influence on how easily they melt (i.e., the more water there is, the more magma is produced) and deform (the more water there is, the less viscous they are). These two properties alone emphasize that to understand the distribution of volcanism and the mechanism of plate tectonics, the water content of the mantle must be determined - Earth being a template to which all other terrestrial planets can be compared.

Peslier, Anne↗