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NASA NTRS2018

Vision 2040: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Materials and Systems

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a diverse team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This report describes the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); identified gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations) which constitutes a community consensus document as it is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: 1) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), 2) community-wide survey, and 3) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per KE) consisting on average of 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. The study envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems. Although the vision focused on aeronautics and space applications, it is believed that other engineering communities (e.g., automotive, biomedical, etc.) can benefit as well from the proposed framework with only minor modifications. Finally, it is TTT's hope and desire that this vision provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

multi-scale modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Performance Computing Based EMT Simulation: Power Grid with IBRs

Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation of power grids with high-fidelity models of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is time-consuming and difficult to scale. The necessity for high-fidelity models of IBRs that incorporate the dynamics of individual inverters within IBRs has been showcased in recent studies. These studies focused on events with partial power reduction in each IBR during a transmission line fault in the power grid. These types of events have been documented in multiple North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) reports in the past decade. It is imperative then to find solutions to speed-up EMT simulations and scale the size of the region with IBRs studied in EMT simulations. In this paper, a combination of numerical simulation algorithms with high-performance computing techniques are employed in discretization and linear solvers employed in the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform for power grid with IBRs. For ease of scalability, modular and object-oriented programming is used as these techniques are implemented. Additionally, automation software is developed to convert legacy software codes to the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform. Thereafter, this platform is evaluated on multi-core central processing units (CPUs). Finally, scale-up tests are performed to showcase the scalability that is possible.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗
NASA NTRS1991

Lunar regolith densification

Core tube samples of the lunar regolith obtained during the Apollo missions showed a rapid increase in the density of the regolith with depth. Various hypotheses have been proposed for the possible cause of this phenomenon, including the densification of the loose regolith material by repeated shaking from the seismic tremors which have been found to occur at regular monthly intervals when the moon and earth are closest to one another. A test bed was designed to study regolith densification. This test bed uses Minnesota Lunar Simulant (MLS) to conduct shaking experiments in the geotechnical centrifuge with an inflight shake table system. By reproducing realistic in-situ regolith properties, the experiment also serves to test penetrator concepts. The shake table system was designed and used for simulation experiments to study effects of earthquakes on terrestrial soil structures. It is mounted on a 15 g-ton geotechnical centrifuge in which the self-weight induced stresses are replicated by testing an n-th scale model in a gravity field which is n times larger than Earth's gravity. A similar concept applies when dealing with lunar prototypes, where the gravity ratio required for proper simulation of lunar gravity effects is that between the centrifugal acceleration and the lunar gravity. Records of lunar seismic tremors, or moonquakes, were obtained. While these records are being prepared for use as the input data to drive the shake table system, records from the El Centro earthquake of 1940 are being used to perform preliminary tests, using a soil container which was previously used for earthquake studies. This container has a laminar construction, with the layers free to slide on each other, so that the soil motion during the simulated earthquake will not be constrained by the otherwise rigid boundaries. The soil model is prepared by pluviating the MLS from a hopper into the laminar container to a depth of 6 in. The container is mounted on the shake table and the centrifuge is operated to generate an acceleration of 10 times Earth's gravity or 60 times the lunar gravity, thus simulating a lunar regolith thickness of 30 ft. The shake table is then operated using the scaled 'moonquake' as the input motion. One or more model moonquakes are used in each experiment, after which the soil is analyzed for its density profile with depth. This is accomplished by removing from the soil bed a column of soil contained within a thin rubber sleeve which has been previously embedded vertically in the soil during pluviation. This column of soil is transferred to a gamma ray device, in which the gamma ray transmission transversely through the soil is measured and compared with standard calibration samples. In this manner, the density profile can be determined. Preliminary results to date are encouraging, and the Center plans to study the effects of duration of shaking, intensity of the shaking motion, and the frequency of the motion.

Ko, Hon-Yim↗
DOE OSTI2026

On the Importance of the Convective Urca Process in 3D Simulations of a Simmering White Dwarf

Type Ia supernovae are bright thermonuclear explosions that are important to numerous areas of astronomy. However, the origins of these events are poorly understood. One proposed setting is that of a near Chandrasekhar mass white dwarf that undergoes runaway carbon burning in the core. During the thousand years leading up to the explosion, the white dwarf undergoes a simmering phase where slow carbon burning heats the core and drives convection. A poorly understood aspect of this phase is the convective Urca process, which links convection with weak nuclear reactions. We use the low Mach number code MAESTROeX to perform full 3D simulations as is required to accurately capture the turbulent convection. We present simulations with and without the A=23 convective Urca process, which have relaxed to a steady state. We characterize the effects of the convective Urca process on the neutrino losses, the nuclear energy generation, and the convective boundary. We find that the size of the convection zone is substantially reduced by the convective Urca process, though convection still extends past the Urca shell. Our findings on the structure of the convective zone and the compositional changes can be used to inform 1D stellar models that track the longer-timescale evolution.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pre-Equilibrium De-Excitations for Neutrino-Nucleus Interactions

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is sensitive to MeV-scale energy depositions from low-energy astrophysical neutrinos, including those from core-collapse supernovae. Interpreting these detector signals requires accurate modeling of the nuclear de-excitation that follows from the neutrino-nucleus interaction. The MARLEY (Model of Argon Reaction Low-Energy Yields) event generator specializes in the low-energy regime. MARLEY currently assumes the residual nucleus equilibrates immediately after the primary interaction. This omits the intermediate pre-equilibrium stage in which energy redistributes among nucleons until statistical equilibrium is reached. While pre-equilibrium effects are well established for nucleon-induced reactions, they have not previously been studied for neutrino-nucleus interactions. This work addresses that gap by implementing a two-component exciton model, which is the first dedicated treatment of pre-equilibrium de-excitation for neutrino-nucleus interactions, restructured around MARLEY's existing class hierarchy to prepare for direct integration, including particle-hole state densities, internal transition rates, and pre-equilibrium particle emission. The calculations show encouraging agreement with the TALYS-2.2 nuclear reaction code for neutron-nucleus interactions. We further propose a concrete integration path into the full MARLEY event generator, including derived class structure and an extended event record for pre-equilibrium vertices in support of future reweighting. Remaining work focuses on refining the emission width calculation, adding $\gamma$-ray emission, and completing this integration to quantify the impact of pre-equilibrium effects on the expected low-energy neutrino signals in DUNE and similar experiments.

Visser, Erin [Michigan State U., East Lansing (mai↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamic Assurance of Autonomous Systems through Ground Control Software

Assurance cases are being increasingly acknowledged as a way to build trust in complex systems with autonomous capabilities [1]. An assurance case is a comprehensive, defensible, and valid justification that a system will function as intended for the specific mission and operating environment. Such justifications for systems with autonomous capabilities are often based on various probabilistic quantifications [2]. Due to the dynamic nature of the environmental conditions in which these systems operate, as well as the changing nature of the autonomous systems themselves, these probabilistic quantifications cannot be simply estimated once during design time. Rather, they need to be continually evaluated during systems operations to ensure that the assurance case justifications are valid. We refer to the assurance case that combines both the static and dynamic elements as a Dynamic Assurance Case (DAC). Such complex systems with autonomous capabilities are often deployed with a Ground Control Software (GCS) component to enable remote operation. Whether the system is composed of a single unit or a fleet of units, deployed distributed or in remote environments, GCS acts as a window into the behavior of the deployed system. It receives telemetry from the system, issues commands to the system and provides various functionalities to visualize the system performance. We propose a dynamic assurance framework where the GCS acts as a relay between the autonomous system and its DAC. GCS can be used to measure both unit-specific as well as system-wide probabilistic quantifications using the incoming telemetry. We embed these quantifications throughout the DAC as variables that can be updated by external sources. We use the GCS to periodically update these variables, which allows us to continually evaluate the formally defined assurance case justifications. We demonstrate our dynamic assurance framework in the NASA Ames project Troupe1 that aims at developing a fleet of rovers capable of au- tonomously mapping their environment. The rovers work cooperatively, each collecting data for different parts of the environment. Each rover runs an identical core Flight System (cFS) [4] application. Troupe1 uses OpenC3 Cosmos [5] as the ground system, and AdvoCATE [3] to capture the system DAC. We show how we can measure both rover-specific and system-wide quantifications in Cosmos using its Ruby scripting editor and pass them into the DAC modelled in AdvoCATE. Then, we show how these incoming variables can be embedded in different parts of the DAC and how effects of their updates can be observed

Irfan Sljivo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solid State Transformer Architecture and Control Compensation for Common Mode Currents

A high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) or similar geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) has the potential to impact the operation of large-scale electric power grids. By introducing low-frequency common-mode (CM) currents, these events can degrade the performance of critical system components, such as large power transformers by introducing CM currents which can lead to magnetic saturation of the transformer core. In this work, a solid-state transformer (SST) is developed to replace susceptible equipment and improve grid resiliency by safely absorbing these CM disturbances. This device will be referred to as a common-mode solid-state transformer (CM-SST). An SST architecture based on a four-legged AC/DC converter is developed. This architecture enables active control of CM signals without disturbing the AC voltages or the real and reactive power delivery capabilities. A system-level model of this architecture is created, and time-domain simulations are performed to evaluate the SST’s performance in response to simulated CM disturbances. A control strategy for mitigating CM current is also investigated. Hamiltonian surface shaping and power flow control (HSSPFC) is used to design a nonlinear controller for the SST’s output inverter. The objectives of the controller are to suppress CM-induced AC current offsets and regulate AC currents to desired setpoints. Nonlinear system analysis is applied to design and validate the controller. Two cases are tested: (a) the proposed four-leg inverter and (b) a standard three-leg inverter. The results show that the proposed controller rapidly mitigates CM disturbances while maintaining high-quality AC current waveforms in the four-leg configuration. Finally, the hardware performance of an SST prototype is evaluated. In particular, the ability of the SST to safely redirect and absorb CM currents is demonstrated, showing how it can protect neighboring conventional transformers in the system. The study confirms that appropriate control laws allow the SST to protect both itself and adjacent transformers during a HEMP or GMD event.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2024

Development of a Data Fusion Methodology for Lineload Aerodynamic Databases for a Launch Vehicle during Liftoff and Transition

The need for databases for the distributed loading on launch vehicles during the early portion of flight necessitates the use of expensive computational flows in regimes where wake effects dominate. While also being expensive, this is a regime that computational tools tend to historically have problems simulating accurately. To help tackle this problem, a method of data fusion to combine computational results to wind tunnel derived force and moment data is developed. Using this method, significant reduction in computational costs and increases in confidence of the final product is possible and has been used to generate several databases for the Space Launch System (SLS) at NASA. While the full details of database generation are not part of this work, the crucial method at its core is developed here. Two SLS geometries are used throughout the work to demonstrate the techniques. These are two of the larger geometries and represent both planned crewed missions to the Moon as well as potential cargo missions to deep space. The method uses principal component analysis (PCA) to generate a reduced ordered model (ROM) to help fill in the full parameter space. Other similar techniques are explored, but were not found to have a significant result on the predictions of the ROM. Because the full number of components are kept to generate the model, this lack of difference is expected. This method is then extended to ensure that predicted surfaces match trusted force and moment data derived from wind tunnel testing. This extension is done by setting up a constrained optimization problem in order to minimize the deviation from the surface resolved computational data while still integrating to the desired values. When generating the constrained optimization problem, a weighting factor to balance these competing needs is introduced. The work compares previously introduced weighting terms from similar work to the proposed terms and shows that the previously used terms do not have as desirable behavior in this flow regime. This method is then expanded by developing a technique to incorporate uncertainty quantification into the developed data fusion methodology. This expansion takes a two pronged approach. One examines transferring the uncertainties in the force and moment database and characterizes how those adjustments change the predicted lineloads. The second looks at model form error and looks how rebuilding the model using slightly different data changes the predictions. These two terms are then combined in order to create an uncertainty model that takes both effects into account. The limitations of the proposed methods is then discussed as well as possible techniques to address these shortcomings.

Launch Vehicles↗
NASA NTRS1992

A quasi-Hertzian stress field from an internal source: A possible working model for the Vredefort structure

The Vredefort structure is a large domal feature about 110 km southeast of Johannesburg, South Africa, situated within and almost central to the large intracratonic Witwatersrand Basin. This structure consists of an Archean core of ca. 45 km in diameter, consisting largely of granitic gneiss, surrounded by a collar of metasedimentary and metavolcanic supracrustal rocks of the Dominian Group, Witwatersrand and Ventersdorp Supergroups, and Transvaal Sequence. The interpretation of images of the gravity and magnetic fields over Vredefort has permitted the delineation of several important features of the structure and of its environment. The outline of the collar strata is a prominent feature of both the gravity and the magnetic fields. The Vredefort structure shares this distinctive geometry with other structures (e.g., Manicouagan, Decaturville, Sierra Madera) of debated impact origin. In all these, successively older strata with steep outward dips are encountered while traversing inward to the center of the structure. A further attribute of these structures is the shortening of the outcrop of a particular stratigraphic unit compared to the original perimeter of that unit. To account for the geometric attributes of the Vredefort structure a mechanical scheme is required where there is radial movement of horizontal strata toward, with uplift in, the center of the Vredefort structure. Two models can be proposed: (1) one in which there is a rapid rise and violent disruption of cover rocks in response to expansion of a fluid accumulation; and (2) one in which there is, in contrast, a nonexplosive, quasi-Hertzian stress field resulting from a diapiric process. Both models can accommodate the geometry and structural components of Vredefort.

Antoine, L. A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Particle Acceleration in Active Galactic Nuclei

The high efficiency of energy generation inferred from radio observations of quasars and X-ray observations of Seyfert active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is apparently achieved only by the gravitational conversion of the rest mass energy of accreting matter onto supermassive black holes. Evidence for the acceleration of particles to high energies by a central engine is also inferred from observations of apparent superluminal motion in flat spectrum, core-dominated radio sources. This phenomenon is widely attributed to the ejection of relativistic bulk plasma from the nuclei of active galaxies, and accounts for the existence of large scale radio jets and lobes at large distances from the central regions of radio galaxies. Reports of radio jets and superluminal motion from galactic black hole candidate X-ray sources indicate that similar processes are operating in these sources. Observations of luminous, rapidly variable high-energy radiation from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory show directly that particles are accelerated to high energies in a compact environment. The mechanisms which transform the gravitational potential energy of the infalling matter into nonthermal particle energy in galactic black hole candidates and AGNs are not conclusively identified, although several have been proposed. These include direct acceleration by static electric fields (resulting from, for example, magnetic reconnection), shock acceleration, and energy extraction from the rotational energy of Kerr black holes. The dominant acceleration mechanism(s) operating in the black hole environment can only be determined, of course, by a comparison of model predictions with observations. The purpose of the work proposed for this grant was to investigate stochastic particle acceleration through resonant interactions with plasma waves that populate the magnetosphere surrounding an accreting black hole. Stochastic acceleration has been successfully applied to the problem of ion and electron energization in solar flares, and is capable of accounting for a wide range of both neutral and charged particle emissions. It is also a component in diffusive shock acceleration, since pitch-angle scattering (which is necessary for multiple shock crossings) is accompanied by diffusion in momentum space, which in turn yields a net systematic energy gain; however, stochastic energization will dominate the first-order shock process only in certain parameter regimes. Although stochastic acceleration has been applied to particle energization in the lobes of radio galaxies, its application to the central regions of AGNs has only recently been considered, but not in detail. We proposed to systematically investigate the plasma processes responsible for stochastic particle acceleration in black hole magnetospheres along with the energy-loss processes which impede particle energization. To this end we calculated acceleration rates and escape time scales for protons and electrons resonating with Alfven waves, and for electrons resonating with whistlers. Assuming either a Kolmogorov or Kraichnan wave spectrum, accretion at the Eddington limit, magnetic field strengths near equipartition, and turbulence energy densities approx. 10% of the total magnetic field energy density, we find that Alfven waves accelerate protons to Lorentz factors approx, equals 10(exp 4) - 10(exp 6) before they escape from the system. Acceleration of electrons by fast mode and whistler waves can produce a nonthermal population of relativistic electrons whose maximum energy is determined by a competition with radiation losses.

Miller, James A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Production of Heavy α -Elements and 44 Ti in Cas A: Comparison to Abundances from 1D Core-collapse Supernova Models and Evidence for Carbon–Oxygen Shell Mergers

The merger between the carbon (C) and oxygen (O) shells hours to days before the collapse of a massive star significantly changes its nucleosynthesis, which is reflected in the elemental ratios observed in supernova remnants (SNRs). We present a nucleosynthesis study of 44 Ti production in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), highlighting large silicon (Si), sulfur (S), calcium (Ca), and, most importantly, argon (Ar) to neon (Ne) ratios as diagnostics for carbon–oxygen (C–O) shell mergers. We compare yields from eight different sets of CCSNe models to observations of Cassiopeia A (Cas A), and show that C–O shell mergers are consistently the models that best match X-ray and infrared observations. These models produce high Ar/Ne ratios (≳0.1), due to 20 Ne depletion and production of 36 Ar and 38 Ar, while lower ratios are obtained from nonmerger cases. Based on the Ar/Ne diagnostic, we compare the range of expected 44 Ti produced by C–O shell mergers, which is up to ∼20%–30% of the overall 44 Ti, but expected to be located outside the reverse shock. Based on the sets of models considered, the photon flux expected from the 44 Ti synthesized in the C–O shell merger in Cas A is below the NuSTAR and COSI detection limits, compatible with current limits locating most of the 44 Ti interior to the reverse shock, but might be detectable from proposed missions like ASCENT. Finally, for the SNR of 1987A, a dominant C–O merger origin of the observed 44 Ti is unlikely based on the observed redshift in its 44 Ti line.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Development and Validation of a Model for Hydrogen Reduction of JSC-1A

Hydrogen reduction of lunar regolith has been proposed as a viable technology for oxygen production on the moon. Hydrogen reduces FeO present in the lunar regolith to form metallic iron and water. The water may be electrolyzed to recycle the hydrogen and produce oxygen. Depending upon the regolith composition, FeO may be bound to TiO2 as ilmenite or it may be dispersed in glassy substrates. Some testing of hydrogen reduction has been conducted with Apollo-returned lunar regolith samples. However, due to the restricted amount of lunar material available for testing, detailed understanding and modeling of the reduction process in regolith have not yet been developed. As a step in this direction, hydrogen reduction studies have been carried out in more detail with lunar regolith simulants such as JSC-1A by NASA and other organizations. While JSC-1A has some similarities with lunar regolith, it does not duplicate the wide variety of regolith types on the moon, for example, it contains almost no ilmenite. Nonetheless, it is a good starting point for developing an understanding of the hydrogen reduction process with regolith-like material. In this paper, a model utilizing a shrinking core formulation coupled with the reactor flow is described and validated against experimental data on hydrogen reduction of JSC-1A.

Hegde, U.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Research In Nonlinear Flight Control for Tiltrotor Aircraft Operating in the Terminal Area

The research during the first year of the effort focused on the implementation of the recently developed combination of neural net work adaptive control and feedback linearization. At the core of this research is the comprehensive simulation code Generic Tiltrotor Simulator (GTRS) of the XV-15 tilt rotor aircraft. For this research the GTRS code has been ported to a Fortran environment for use on PC. The emphasis of the research is on terminal area approach procedures, including conversion from aircraft to helicopter configuration. This report focuses on the longitudinal control which is the more challenging case for augmentation. Therefore, an attitude command attitude hold (ACAH) control augmentation is considered which is typically used for the pitch channel during approach procedures. To evaluate the performance of the neural network adaptive control architecture it was necessary to develop a set of low order pilot models capable of performing such tasks as, follow desired altitude profiles, follow desired speed profiles, operate on both sides of powercurve, convert, including flaps as well as mastangle changes, operate with different stability and control augmentation system (SCAS) modes. The pilot models are divided in two sets, one for the backside of the powercurve and one for the frontside. These two sets are linearly blended with speed. The mastangle is also scheduled with speed. Different aspects of the proposed architecture for the neural network (NNW) augmented model inversion were also demonstrated. The demonstration involved implementation of a NNW architecture using linearized models from GTRS, including rotor states, to represent the XV-15 at various operating points. The dynamics used for the model inversion were based on the XV-15 operating at 30 Kts, with residualized rotor dynamics, and not including cross coupling between translational and rotational states. The neural network demonstrated ACAH control under various circumstances. Future efforts will include the implementation into the Fortran environment of GTRS, including pilot modeling and NNW augmentation for the lateral channels. These efforts should lead to the development of architectures that will provide for fully automated approach, using similar strategies.

Calise, A. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Reduced-Order Model of a Nuclear Power Plant with Thermal Power Dispatch

This paper presents reduced-order modeling of thermal power dispatch (TPD) from a pressurized water reactor (PWR) for providing heat to nearby heat consuming industrial processes that seek to take advantage of nuclear heat to reduce carbon emissions. The reactor model includes the neutronics of the reactor core, thermal–hydraulics of the primary coolant cycle, and a three-lump model of the steam generator (SG). The secondary coolant cycle is represented with quasi-steady state mass and energy balance equations. The secondary cycle consists of a steam extraction system, high-pressure and low-pressure turbines, moisture separator and reheater, high-pressure and low-pressure feedwater heaters, deaerator, feedwater and condensate pumps, and a condenser. The steam produced by the SG is distributed between the turbines and the extraction steam line (XSL) that delivers steam to nearby industrial processes, such as production of clean hydrogen. The reduced-order simulator is verified by comparing predictions with results from separate validated steady-state and transient full-scope PWR simulators for TPD levels between 0% and 70% of the rated reactor power. All simulators indicate that the flow rate of steam in the main steam line and turbine systems decrease with increasing TPD, which causes a reduction in PWR electric power generation. The results are analyzed to assess the impact of TPD on system efficiency and feedwater flow control. Due to the simplicity of the proposed reduced-order model, it can be scaled to represent a PWR of any size with a few parametric changes. In the future, the proposed reduced-order model will be integrated into a power system model in a digital real-time simulator (DRTS) and physical hardware-in-the-loop simulations.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2017

Small Ion Channel Linking Molecular Simulations and Electrophysiology

Ion channels are pore-forming protein assemblies that mediate the transport of small ions across cell membranes. Otherwise, membrane bilayers would be almost impermeable to ions incapable to traverse the low dielectric constant, hydrophobic membrane core. Ion channels are ubiquitous to all life forms. In humans and other higher organisms they play the central role in conducting nerve impulses, cardiac functions, muscle contraction and apoptosis. On the other extreme of biological complexity, viral ion channels (viroporins) influence many stages of the virus infection cycle either through regulating virus replication, such as entry, assembly and release or modulating the electrochemical balance in the subcellular compartments of host cells. Ion channels were crucial components of protocells. Their emergence facilitated adaptation of nascent life to different environmental conditions. The earliest ion channels must have been much simpler than most of their modern ancestors. Viral channels are among only a few naturally occurring models to study the structure, function and evolution of primordial channels. Experimental studies of these properties are difficult and often unreliable. In principle, computational methods, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in particular, can aid in providing information about both the structure and the function of ion channels. However, MD suffers from its own problems, such as inability to access sufficiently long time scales or limited accuracy of force fields. It is, therefore, essential to determine the reliability of MD simulations. We propose to do so on the basis of two criteria. One is channel stability on time scales that extend for several microseconds or longer. The other is the ability to reproduce the measured ionic conductance as a function of applied voltage. If both the stability and the calculated ionic conductance are satisfactory it will greatly increase our confidence that the structure and the function of a channel are described sufficiently accurately. To our knowledge, long time scale stability (approx.10 micro-sec) and the correct electrophysiology have been shown so far for only one channel - the synthetic LS3 hexamer). In this presentation, this approach will be discussed in application to two viral channels - Vpu, encoded by the HIV-1 genome and p7 of hepatitis C.

Pohorille, Andrzej↗
DOE OSTI2026

The stellar origins of 96 Zr excesses in presolar graphites from the Murchison meteorite

Context. Zirconium-96 is a stable isotope that can be synthesized under different neutron-rich nucleosynthetic conditions. Astrophysical models predict its production to occur in various stellar environments: from low-to-intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars to massive stars and core-collapse supernovae. Aims. Detections of 96Zr excesses, in combination with other isotopic measurements from presolar grains can provide unique constraints on its stellar origin. Presolar grains are microscopic particles found in primitive Solar System materials, which formed in stellar winds and supernova ejecta. The isotopic composition of each grain can provide us a snapshot of the nucleosynthetic processes that took place during the parent star’s lifetime. Methods. In this study, we measured the stable isotopes of C, N, O, Mo, Zr, and Ru in high-density presolar graphite grains from the Murchison meteorite and found four grains that contain positive isotopic anomalies in 96 Zr carried by their internal subgrains. We analyzed multi-element isotopic datasets from each grain to explore the source of the observed 96 Zr excesses. Results. Comparisons with stellar models indicate that two grains likely condensed in an intermediate-mass AGB star with initial metallicity of Z ≤ 0.014. Their 96 Zr/ 94 Zr ratios also match those predicted for born-again AGB stars undergoing a very late thermal pulse and rapidly accreting white dwarfs. After comparing the relative populations of the aforementioned dust-producing stars, we propose rapidly accreting white dwarfs as a new, and more likely, stellar source for one of the presolar grains. The remaining two grains could have originated in the supernova ejecta of massive stars, due to correlated excesses in the p-nuclides, 92, 94 Mo. Thus, grains with 96 Zr anomalies can have a variety of stellar origins, in agreement with theoretical studies. Conclusions. Our study highlights the importance of multi-element analysis in constraining the types of stars where presolar grains have condensed. These data will help improve our understanding of various nucleosynthesis processes in different stellar phases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗