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DOE OSTI2021

Recycled Paper as a Source of Renewable Jet Fuel in the United States

Converting biomass into jet fuel involves more than the core chemical process. The overall process includes the logistics of harvesting and transporting the biomass, handling and preparing the material for processing, and processing and disposal of waste. All of these activities contribute to cost. Controlling cost involves more than developing efficient process chemistry. Choice of feedstock also has a significant impact on process economics. We consider chemical conversion of paper from municipal solid waste as a feedstock for the production of jet fuel and diesel. Paper has a significantly higher cellulose content than raw lignocellulosic biomass such as corn stover, so it requires less pretreatment to convert it into hydrocarbons than lignocellulosic biomass. Our techno-economic analysis showed that the cost of converting paper waste into jet fuel is about $1.00/gal less than jet fuel produced from corn stover. Although the cost of recycling paper into jet fuel is less than producing it from corn stover, the process is not competitive with petroleum. We estimated a minimum selling price of $3.97/gal for paper-derived jet fuel. Our sensitivity studies indicated that the biggest economic obstacle is the cost of cellulose hydrolysis. Direct hydrogenation of paper to sugar alcohols combined with increased economy of scale could make recycling paper jet fuel competitive.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2001

Simultaneous Aerodynamic and Structural Design Optimization (SASDO) for a 3-D Wing

The formulation and implementation of an optimization method called Simultaneous Aerodynamic and Structural Design Optimization (SASDO) is shown as an extension of the Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) method. It is extended by the inclusion of structure element sizing parameters as design variables and Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis responses as constraints. The method aims to reduce the computational expense. incurred in performing shape and sizing optimization using state-of-the-art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flow analysis, FEM structural analysis and sensitivity analysis tools. SASDO is applied to a simple. isolated, 3-D wing in inviscid flow. Results show that the method finds the saine local optimum as a conventional optimization method with some reduction in the computational cost and without significant modifications; to the analysis tools.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

In situ trace element microanalysis

The use of particle-track-radiography and X-ray- fluorescence techniques in the in situ measurement of trace (less than 1000 ppm) elements in single mineral phases of polished sections is surveyed, and examples of their application to ordinary, carbonaceous and enstatite chondrites are provided. Radiographic methods surveyed include fission-track radiography (for U, Th, and Pu-244), alpha radiography using nuclear reactions (for Li and B), alpha autoradiography (for Bi and Pb), and beta autoradiography (for several elements in synthetic or biological samples). Two X-ray-fluorescence methods are compared: (1) photon-induced X-ray emission (PIXE), and (2) the potential use of synchrotron radiation. The latter is shown to allow much greater sensitivity than current PIXE technology and a much broader range of elements than particle-track radiography: the ppm analysis of 10-micron grains for all elements heavier than Na. These advantages are seen as balancing the high cost of accelerator use.

Burnett, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Next Generation Space Telescope: Visiting a Time When Galaxies Were Young

In the spring and summer of 1996, three independent teams studied the feasibility of a large aperture space telescope to follow the Hubble Space Telescope. The scientific goals for the new telescope had been laid out in a report by the HST & Beyond Committee, a group appointed by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy to consider the needs of the astronomical community after the nominal end of the HST mission in 2005. The technical capabilities and constraints on the new observatory were daunting: the telescope optics should be at least 4 meters in diameter and passively cooled to achieve optimum sensitivity in the near-infrared portion of the spectrum. Moreover, the costs should be kept within a fraction of those for the HST: approximately $500M for construction and $900M for lifetime costs, not including support for scientific data analysis. In their presentations to NASA on 19-21 August, 1996, the teams led by Lockheed Martin, TRW, and the Goddard Space Flight Center concluded that a Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) was not only feasible and affordable, but that it could be made more powerful using recent breakthroughs in space technologies. Coming on the heels of breathtaking HST observations of distant galaxies in the process of formation, such an NGST could bridge the gap in our understanding of the earliest origins of stars, galaxies, and the elements that are the foundations of Life. This report presents the findings of the three teams and the technological roadmap which will guide us to the successful development of the NGST over the next decade. We have made liberal use of the written material, tables, and diagrams prepared by the three study teams. We have also taken advantage of the knowledge and ideas of our colleagues in government, industry and academia. In Appendix A, we list the members of the three study groups, the NGST Science Working Group and the NGST Scientific Oversight Committee. We deeply appreciate their assistance, advice, and enthusiasm. The scientific and technological goals of NGST are part of the Origins initiative in the Office of Space Science, NASA Headquarters. We are pleased to acknowledge the support and leadership of Edward Weiler, a steadfast friend of HST, Harley Thronson, a proponent of all things infrared, and Mike Kaplan, a tireless advocate of new technology. John Campbell, Project Manager for HST, initiated the NGST study at GSFC and we deeply appreciate his formative efforts and continued support. We are also grateful for the foresight of Riccardo Giacconi, Director General of the European Southern Observatory (ESO), and the efforts of his staff. We note that European Space Agency (ESA) staff at the Space Telescope Science Institute and ESO played important roles in the NGST scientific and technical studies. We look forward to future collaboration with ESA, ESO, and other international partners.

H.S. Stockman↗

NASA NTRS2007

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Mars Mission Systems Analysis and Requirements Definition

This paper describes the Mars transportation vehicle design concepts developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Concepts Office. These vehicle design concepts provide an indication of the most demanding and least demanding potential requirements for nuclear thermal propulsion systems for human Mars exploration missions from years 2025 to 2035. Vehicle concept options vary from large "all-up" vehicle configurations that would transport all of the elements for a Mars mission on one vehicle. to "split" mission vehicle configurations that would consist of separate smaller vehicles that would transport cargo elements and human crew elements to Mars separately. Parametric trades and sensitivity studies show NTP stage and engine design options that provide the best balanced set of metrics based on safety, reliability, performance, cost and mission objectives. Trade studies include the sensitivity of vehicle performance to nuclear engine characteristics such as thrust, specific impulse and nuclear reactor type. Tbe associated system requirements are aligned with the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Reference Mars mission as described in the Explorations Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) report. The focused trade studies include a detailed analysis of nuclear engine radiation shield requirements for human missions and analysis of nuclear thermal engine design options for the ESAS reference mission.

Mulqueen, Jack↗

NASA NTRS2006

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2006

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

Viken, Jeff↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Sensitive Parameters of the New Energy Vehicles in China

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government has put effort into decarbonizing the transportation sector. Consequently, China elaborated a new energy vehicle strategy promoting the production of electric vehicles and expanding into hydrogen (H2) vehicle technologies including fuel cell electric vehicles and H2 internal combustion engine vehicles. The Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) projects the market penetration as well as energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China up to 2050. By integrating the Monte Carlo simulation, this study tests the robustness of TEAM and investigates the key parameters that will shape passenger vehicle sales and emissions in the future. The results show that fuel cell cost, H2 price, and battery cost are the most sensitive parameters for H2 vehicle technologies.

Saafi, Mohamed Ali↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Analysis of a Novel Microwave Process to Produce Ethylene from Methane

Ethylene is a critical feedstock in industrial processes, serving as a raw material in the petrochemical industry to produce plastics and commodity chemicals. Conventional ethylene production routes are energy-intensive and contribute substantially to the carbon footprint of chemical manufacturing. In this study, an industrial-scale novel microwave process was simulated using ASPEN Plus to assess its economic viability. Technoeconomic analysis confirmed the economic competitiveness of the novel microwave process, with a levelized cost of ethylene of USD 0.51/kg compared to USD 0.56/kg for the conventional base case. Key economic drivers of the process were identified, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate their impact on project economics. Furthermore, 87.7% of the total utility consumption in the novel microwave process is electricity, highlighting its potential to contribute to the electrification of the chemical industry. The findings of this study confirm the economic feasibility of both industrial-scale microwave reactors and modular plant configurations for the production of ethylene from methane, offering a promising alternative to conventional processes.

electromagnetic radiation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗

NASA NTRS1985

System technology analysis of aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicles. Moderate lift/drag (0.75-1.5). Volume 1A, part 1: Executive summary, phase 1

Activities and significant results of Phase 1 of a study to access aeroassisted orbit transfer vehicle (AOTV) system technology are summarized. Broad concept evaluations were performed and the technology requirements and sensitivities for ground based AOTV's over a range of vehicle hypersonic lift/drag (L/D) from 0.75 to 1.5 were systematically identified and assessed. The four major task areas included systems analysis, system/subsystem trades, technology payoff assessment and plan, and cost analysis. Findings indicate that substantial performance improvements and hence cost benefit can be obtained by developing enhanced technologies such as: (1) low thrust advanced expander LOX-hydrogen engines with specific impulse of 480 to 490 sec; (2) reducing the external thermal protection system weight and increasing the maximum allowable bond/structure temperature; and (3) reducing the structural shell weight by improving the quality of the design allowable data, or use of advanced structural materials. Results also show that use of mid L/D AOTV's provide significant aerodynamic plane change capability and control authority over trajectory dispersions and off-nominal atmospheres.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2018

6DOF Testing of the SLS Inertial Navigation Unit

The Navigation System on the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) Block 1 vehicle performs initial alignment of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) navigation frame through gyrocompass alignment (GCA). Because the navigation architecture for the SLS Block 1 vehicle is a purely inertial system, the accuracy of the achieved orbit relative to mission requirements is very sensitive to initial alignment accuracy. The assessment of this sensitivity and many others via simulation is a part of the SLS Model-Based Design and Model-Based Requirements approach. As a part of the aforementioned, 6DOF Monte Carlo simulation is used in large part to develop and demonstrate verification of program requirements. To facilitate this and the GN&C flight software design process, an SLS-Program-controlled Design Math Model (DMM) of the SLS INS was developed by the SLS Navigation Team. The SLS INS model implements all of the key functions of the hardware-namely, GCA, inertial navigation, and FDIR (Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery)-in support of SLS GN&C design requirements verification. Despite the strong sensitivity to initial alignment, GCA accuracy requirements were not verified by test due to program cost and schedule constraints. Instead, the system relies upon assessments performed using the SLS INS model. In order to verify SLS program requirements by analysis, the SLS INS model is verified and validated against flight hardware. In lieu of direct testing of GCA accuracy in support of requirement verification, the SLS Navigation Team proposed and conducted an engineering test to, among other things, validate the GCA performance and overall behavior of the SLS INS model through comparison with test data. This paper will detail dynamic hardware testing of the SLS INS, conducted by the SLS Navigation Team at Marshall Space Flight Center's 6DOF Table Facility, in support of GCA performance characterization and INS model validation. A 6-DOF motion platform was used to produce 6DOF pad twist and sway dynamics while a simulated SLS flight computer communicated with the INS. Tests conducted include an evaluation of GCA algorithm robustness to increasingly dynamic pad environments, an examination of GCA algorithm stability and accuracy over long durations, and a long-duration static test to gather enough data for Allan Variance analysis. Test setup, execution, and data analysis will be discussed, including analysis performed in support of SLS INS model validation.

Geohagan, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1987

A cost analysis for the implementation of commonality in the family of commuter airplanes, revised

The acquisition costs determined for the NASA family of commute airplanes are presented. The costs of the baseline designs are presented along with the calculated savings due to the commonality in the family. A sensitivity study is also presented to show the major drivers in the acquisition cost calculations. The baseline costs are calculated with the Nicolai method. A comparison is presented of the estimated costs for the commuter family with the actual price for existing commuters. The cost calculations for the engines and counter-rotating propellers are reported. The effects of commonality on acquisition costs are calculated. The sensitivity calculations of the cost to various costing parameters are shown. The calculations for the direct operating costs, with and without commonality are presented.

Creighton, Tom↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuel Production via Catalytic Upgrading of Carbohydrates in Paper Sludge

A full-plant model was developed using correlations from a rigorous mass and energy balance and based on experimental results to determine the MFSP and its Sensitivity Analysis in the production of a hydrocarbon product from Paper Sludge. In this base case a preliminary MFSP of $5.97/GGE has been determined. This value is higher than the results reported in recent NREL reports. The difference is explained since much larger capacity plants are considered in those reports, and because we are not considering the production of co-products that bring the fuel costs down. The obtained model is being used to guide the next steps in our laboratory work since the team is now aware of which are the more sensitive process parameters "impacting" the MFSP of the final product.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2004

Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

performance analysis↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of success probability/cost trades for small landers in a Mars network

The premise to be tested in this analysis is whether cost economics may accrue by delivering more landers designed to lower reliability of operation (compared to fewer landers of higher reliability) to obtain a desired probability of achieving a given number of lander successes. Generally, the application in mind is a network of penetrators, although the analysis may apply as well to other small lander concepts or even to simple rovers. The method of analysis is based on a probabilistic model of lander success and a related probabilistic model of project cost including the lander, spacecraft carrier, and integration, but not launch or operations costs. Quantitative results are obtained in a normalized and parametric fashion. Sensitivity to the assumed model parameters is also examined.

Friedlander, Alan L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Weathering: Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Screening Analysis

This report presents a detailed, transparent, and independent screening level techno-economic analysis and lifecycle analysis of enhanced weathering of igneous rocks and industrial waste materials. The performance, costs, and CO 2 removal potential is reported for a process spanning material acquisition, preparation, transport, application and monitoring, reporting, and verification. The base cases examined serve as a reference for informative performance and cost sensitivity analyses. This approach aims to highlight promising scenarios for enhanced weathering application and potential avenues for cost reduction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Applying a Multisector Scenario Framework to Evaluate Past and Future Public Surface Water Supply Infrastructure Strategies in Texas

Datasets supporting the index model and scenario analysis used in evaluating surface water supply strategies across different water system types in Texas. These data underpin the scenario development and application of five key indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets are organized by system type—stream reaches (flowlines), waterbodies, and reservoirs—and include both raw and standardized index values. The integrated datasets also provide scenario classifications (original and adjusted) based on infrastructure and planning priorities, enabling comparison across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Additional strategy-level data are included to support evaluation of state-level new reservoir projects in relation to cost and availability tradeoffs. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions Folder: Index_model_database.zip Subfolder: Stream_reach.zip Fl_wf.csv, Fl_wq.csv, Fl_er.csv, Fl_wf_wtcUV.csv, Fl_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Fl_allfac_wic1.csv, Fl_allfac_wic2.csvDatasets for computing WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, and WIC for surface water systems classified as stream reaches (flowlines). Subfolder: Waterbody.zip Wb_wf.csv, Wb_wq.csv, Wb_er.csv, Wb_wf_wtcUV.csv, Wb_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Wb_allfac_wic1.csv, Wb_allfac_wic2.csvEquivalent index model datasets for waterbodies, reflecting hydrologic and infrastructure attributes specific to impounded natural systems. Subfolder: Reservoir.zip Rs_wf.csv, Rs_wq.csv, Rs_er.csv, Rs_wf_wtcUV.csv, Rs_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Rs_allfac_wic1.csv, Rs_allfac_wic2.csvIndex model datasets specific to regulated reservoir systems, incorporating both resource indicators and cost parameters. Folder: Integrated data.zip combined_merged_data.csv, combined_merged_data_scenario.csvDatasets integrating index model indicators (both raw and scaled) with scenario classifications, including adjustments reflecting SSP-aligned transitions and planning shifts. Folder: Additional data.zip wai_supplystrat_wic_merged.csvCurated dataset capturing proposed major reservoir-based municipal water supply strategies in Texas. Integrates site-level planning data with estimated capital infrastructure costs and water availability scores for comparative assessment.

geospatial↗