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NASA NTRS2021

Daily Precipitation Frequency Distributions Impacts on Land-Surface Simulations of CONUS

Many precipitation-driven data products from land data assimilation systems support assessments of droughts, floods, and other societally-relevant land-surface processes.The accumulated precipitation used as input to these products has a significant impacton water budgets; however, the effects of daily distribution of precipitation on theseproducts are not well known. A comparison of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievalsfor GPM (IMERG) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stationsversion 2 (CHIRPS2) rainfall products over the continentalUnited States (CONUS) wasperformed to quantify the impacts of the daily distributionof precipitation on biases anderrors in soil moisture, runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET). Since the total accumulatedprecipitation between the IMERG and CHIRPS product differed, a third precipitationproduct, CHIRPS-to-IMERG (CHtoIM), was produced that usedCHIRPS2 accumulatedprecipitation totals and the daily precipitation frequency distribution of IMERG. Thisnew product supported a controlled analysis of the impact ofprecipitation frequencydistribution on simulated hydrological fields. The CHtoIM had higher occurrences ofprecipitation in the 0–5 mm day−1range, with a lower occurrence of dry days, whichdecreased soil moisture and surface runoff in the land-surface model. The surface soillayer had a tendency to reach saturation more often in the CHIRPS2 simulations, wherethe number of moderate to heavy precipitation days (>5mm day−1) was increased. Usingthe blended CHtoIM product as input reduced errors in surface soil moisture by 5–15%when compared to Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) data.Similarly, ET errors werealso slightly decreased (∼2%) when compared to SSEBop data. Moderate changes indaily precipitation distributions had a quantifiable impact on soil moisture, runoff, andET. These changes usually improved the model when compared to other modeled andobservational datasets, but the magnitude of the improvements varied by region andtime of year.

Daniel P Sarmiento↗

NASA NTRS2021

Model-Independent Time-Delay Interferometry Based on Principal Component Analysis

With a laser interferometric gravitational-wave detector in separate free flying spacecraft, the only way to achieve detection is to mitigate the dominant noise arising from the frequency fluctuations of the lasers via postprocessing. The noise can be effectively filtered out on the ground through a specific technique called time-delay interferometry (TDI), which relies on the measurements of time-delays between spacecraft and careful modeling of how laser noise enters the interferometric data. Recently, this technique has been recast into a matrix-based formalism by several authors, offering a different perspective on TDI, particularly by relating it to principal component analysis (PCA). In this work, we demonstrate that we can cancel laser frequency noise by directly applying PCA to a set of shifted data samples, without any prior knowledge of the relationship between single-link measurements and noise, nor time-delays. We show that this fully data-driven algorithm achieves a gravitational-wave sensitivity similar to classic TDI.

Quentin Baghi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

It currently requires significant computational cost to simulate the flow physics of the booster separation event on the Space Launch System. This comes from the large parametric space in which the event occurs, as pre-separation flight conditions and separated booster core-relative trajectories can vary. Functionally removing the risk of core-booster collision mandates careful assessment of the fluid dynamics in terms of several trajectory parameters. However, simulating the entire trajectory envelope is computationally intractable given the high parametric dimension. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the resulting low-parametric-resolution aerodynamic booster separation database, a data-driven approach was developed to select which breakpoints should be studied by simulations and experiments and which should be relegated to a regression-based interpolation procedure. This technique works by simulating cases where the flow physics are most sensitive to changes in the parameters and leaving the less parametrically sensitive regions for interpolation. The result is a booster separation run matrix whose computational cost is comparable to that of previous database generations but has lower interpolation errors.

SLS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Upper Limits on the Isotropic Gravitational-Wave Background from Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo's Third Observing Run

We report results of a search for an isotropic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using data from Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's third observing run (O3) combined with upper limits from the earlier O1 and O2 runs. Unlike in previous observing runs in the advanced detector era, we include Virgo in the search for the GWB. The results of the search are consistent with uncorrelated noise, and therefore we place upper limits on the strength of the GWB. We find that the dimensionless energy density Ω(sub GW) ≤ 5.8 × 10(exp -9) at the 95% credible level for a at (frequency-independent) GWB, using a prior which is uniform in the log of the strength of the GWB, with 99% of the sensitivity coming from the band 20-76.6 Hz; Ω(sub GW)(f) ≤ 3.4 × 10(exp -9) at 25 Hz for a power-law GWB with a spectral index of 2/3 (consistent with expectations for compact binary coalescences), in the band 20-90.6 Hz; and Ω(sub GW)(f) ≤ 3.9 × 10(exp -10) at 25 Hz for a spectral index of 3, in the band 20-291.6 Hz. These upper limits improve over our previous results by a factor of 6.0 for a at GWB, 8.8 for a spectral index of 2/3, and 13.1 for a spectral index of 3. We also search for a GWB arising from scalar and vector modes, which are predicted by alternative theories of gravity; we do not find evidence of these, and place upper limits on the strength of GWBs with these polarizations. We demonstrate that there is no evidence of correlated noise of magnetic origin by performing a Bayesian analysis that allows for the presence of both a GWB and an effective magnetic background arising from geophysical Schumann resonances. We compare our upper limits to a fiducial model for the GWB from the merger of compact binaries, updating the model to use the most recent data-driven population inference from the systems detected during O3a. Finally, we combine our results with observations of individual mergers and show that, at design sensitivity, this joint approach may yield stronger constraints on the merger rate of binary black holes at z ≳ 2 than can be achieved with individually resolved mergers alone.

Ryan Abbott↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

SLS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Adaptive IV&V for Increasingly Complex Software Systems

As NASA software systems continue to innovate, becoming more complex and nondeterministic, the need for the NASA IV&V Program to become systemically adaptive to ensure mission success is paramount. To ensure adaptability within resource constraints, IV&V has developed an agile, risk-based approach to identify, characterize, scope, focus, and prioritize mission assurance activities. This risk based adaptive framework has been applied to trends such as increased reliance on data driven algorithms for safety and mission critical software behavior, use of MBSE in system design, and application of agile principles to embedded software development. The framework is enabled by continuous innovation of new approaches such as software only test beds, assurance design tools, and initiatives that augment IV&V assurance methods with artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques. This presentation will highlight the trends the NASA IV&V Program is seeing, the innovative steps it is taking to address those challenges, and how it is postured to address evolving risk and constantly changing and new technologies.

Wesley W Deadrick↗

NASA NTRS2021

Machine Vision based Sample-Tube Localization for Mars Sample Return

A potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) architecture is being jointly studied by NASA and ESA. As currently envisioned, the MSR campaign consists of a series of 3 missions: sample cache, fetch and return to Earth. In this paper, we focus on the fetch part of the MSR, and more specifically the problem of autonomously detecting and localizing sample tubes deposited on the Martian surface. Towards this end, we study two machine-vision based approaches: First, a geometrydriven approach based on template matching that uses hardcoded filters and a 3D shape model of the tube; and second, a data-driven approach based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and learned features. Furthermore, we present a large benchmark dataset of sample-tube images, collected in representative outdoor environments and annotated with ground truth segmentation masks and locations. The dataset was acquired systematically across different terrain, illumination conditions and dust-coverage; and benchmarking was performed to study the feasibility of each approach, their relative strengths and weaknesses, and robustness in the presence of adverse environmental conditions.

Detry, R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experiences in the Practice of Design of Experiments at NASA

Statistical design of experiments (DOE) has gained recognition within NASA by spurring innovation and efficiency, and it has demonstrated significant impact. Aerospace research and development benefits DOE techniques by accelerating learning, maximizing knowledge, ensuring strategic resource investment, and informing data-driven decisions. In practice, DOE relies on multidisciplinary collaboration to develop solution strategies that integrate statistical methods with subject-matter expertise to meet challenging research objectives. This presentation shares experiences in the practice of design of experiments at NASA in aeronautics, space exploration, and atmospheric science.

Peter A. Parker↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying radiation quality for space relevant radiation types: Fitting excess risk models to three combined HZE-irradiated mouse datasets

Radiation health risks are predominantly derived from low linear energy transfer (LET) terrestrial exposures; however, space radiation includes exposure to high-LET and high-charge, high-energy (HZE) particles. Accurately quantifying the differences in radiation quality between the space and terrestrial radiation environments is important for assessing and predicting health risks for astronauts. Weil et al. 2009 and 2014 used two different inbred mouse strains to study differences in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tumorigenesis after exposures to low- and high- LET radiation. More recently, Edmundson et al. 2020 provided valuable new tumor data in outbred mice that were exposed to low- and high-LET radiation. The present study aims to rigorously investigate a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor by leveraging the HCC tumor data from Weil et al. 2009, Weil et al. 2014, and Edmundson et al. 2020. The three experiments were similarly designed, allowing the raw data to be combined into a pooled dataset to estimate excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models using Bayesian Poisson regression. These effect estimates from the pooled data provide greater power to calculate a data driven RBE. Extensive sensitivity analyses test the robustness of RBE estimates to various model assumptions. The following questions will be explored through the sensitivity analyses: • Is the shape of the dose response different for low-LET radiation and HZE radiation, indicating that RBE is a function of dose? • Does attained age modify the effect estimates differently for low-LET radiation and HZE radiation, indicating RBE is a function of attained age? • Are the effect estimates and RBE estimates different for inbred mouse strains and outbred mouse strains? • Do assumptions about differences in ERR models and EAR models change the estimated RBE? Additional studies would be needed to validate the findings from these exploratory analyses.

Lori J. Chappell↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACT - Information for the Development of Human Health and Performance Systems

IMPACT is a suite of computational and systems engineering tools. Currently being developed for NASA Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) and could be extended to other Human Research Program (HRP) elements. The purpose is to provide a data-driven means to inform human health and performance risk mitigation during exploration missions considering resource constraints in the medical system. IMPACT enables systematic trade studies to evaluate options. IMPACT uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a systematic methodology to evaluate risks. IMPACT is currently under development to inform decision-makers the risks involved with trade-options that have likelihoods and consequences backed by scientific research in a medical evidence library. IMPACT supports multi-segment analysis to determine probabilities and risks in different mission segments. There are currently 122 medical conditions and 900 resources in the IMPACT Medical Database. IMPACT modeling is using mission segments and multiple vehicles for the NASA Artemis campaign and could support future complex missions in deep space.

IMPACT PRA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How Autonomous Intelligent Systems Can Facilitate Earth-independent Medical Care: Going Beyond Telepresence

During the last decade, teleoperated robotic systems have extended humans’ sensorimotor competence to digitally fly beyond the physical barrier of distance and scale and thus transmit sensorimotor skills of the human through direct communication. Telepresence capabilities have enabled tele-physical remote access at small scales thanks to telerobotic mediums. Although the concept was initially motivated by space applications, such technologies quickly have expanded into the medical domain and resulted in teleoperated medical robots, including telerobotic surgical systems (such as the da Vinci surgical system). Effective telepresence fundamentally depends on an agile, reliable, and secure communication medium that can transmit real-time information between the operator and a remote device. However, direct telepresence may not be achievable for long-duration exploration spaceflight missions. Thus, autonomous systems and local intelligence represent potential solutions to the aforementioned issues. One example solution employs demonstration systems which enable learning from the pre-captured inputs of a skilled human operator. These will be computationally modeled and later probabilistically replicated toward the completion of remote physical tasks when direct telepresence is not viable - such as under communication blackout conditions. In other words, trained autonomous systems (e.g., robots) can perform remote operations that mimic the physical performance of experts during remote operations/training. Beyond learning the physics of the task, autonomous agents can also be used to conduct algorithmic decision-making that mimics the higher-level cognition of the expert. Thus, using an autonomous system, pre-trained cognitive and manipulation-based skills can be leveraged (acquired during pre-mission events) to produce digital twins of an intelligent operator. Such systems can be used for the real-time conduction of intricate tasks in complex and unstructured environments. Such systems will operationalize “cognitive digital twins” and can expand the reach of human cognition and manipulation through the power of data-driven learning from demonstration algorithms. This system category will be discussed as a fully autonomous operation in this talk. In addition to the above, we will also propose and discuss the possibility of partial-automation using remote intelligence and remote sensing. In contrast to full automation, partial automation can close the loop through a local operator equipped with augmented sensory awareness through wearable systems. Such technologies will allow the local operator to conduct delicate tasks while being guided using sensory augmentation and being monitored to gauge her/his level of cognitive focus and performance. The difference with the previous category is that a remote human will conduct the task. Further, rather than making a digital twin of human cognition, we will augment the control inputs of the local human to match those of the skilled expert operator who is not accessible in real-time. Going beyond classic telepresence and thus approaching intelligent telepresence, our vision is that autonomous agents will eventually enable the safe, consistent and efficient delivery of complex, remote and smart medical care during space exploration across operators in an Earth-independent fashion. We will discuss our collective vision from NASA and MERIIT@NYU lab in this talk.

Telepresence↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Landslide Susceptibility and Runout Assessment for the Arun Hydropower Cascade in Nepal Based on Multitemporal Landslide Inventory Developed Using Planet Imagery

The transboundary Pumqu/Arun River basin spreads across Nepal and Tibet. Nearly 95% of the basin lies in Tibet through which the Pumqu River flows forming the Arun River once it enters Nepal. The Arun River valley has about 3,163 MW in five large hydropower projects undergoing construction or planned for the future. Rainfall and earthquake-induced landslides, landslide dammed lakes and landslide-induced glacial lake outburst floods pose major risks to smooth operation of these projects. To safeguard upcoming hydropower projects, areas susceptible to landslides in the Arun River valley must be identified. We generated a multitemporal landslide inventory (2010-2020), modeled landslide susceptibility and runouts around the hydropower sites using Earth Observation (EO) techniques. We used high-resolution satellite imagery from Planet and open-source tool to establish a detailed and comprehensive multitemporal landslide inventory for the basin. The rigorous quality-controlled inventory represents yearly record of landslides from 2010 to 2020. To our knowledge this is one of the most comprehensive landslide inventories for the basin with yearly records of landslides.A data-driven approach was used to map areas susceptible to landslides within the Pumqu/Arun River basin. The multitemporal landslide inventory combined with other readily available EO-based variables were used to create a landslide susceptibility map. The highly susceptible areas delineated from the map was further used to characterize runouts near the hydropower sites. The susceptibility and runout analysis provide a valuable initial estimate of where landslides are likely to trigger and where the mobilized material is likely to end up.

Pukar Amatya↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Engineering

This webinar provides an overview of the International Statistical Engineering Association (ISEA), and it illustrates the practice of statistical engineering at NASA. ISEA was formed to promote the study of how successful data-based problem-solving methods are leveraged to realize innovative opportunities and solve problems sustainably. ISEA is comprised of statisticians, engineers, scientists, and other professionals that exchange ideas and experiences in the development and application of statistical engineering theories. ISEA is building the body of knowledge of the statistical engineering discipline with a particular focus on improving academic preparation for tackling complex problems. Over the past 15 years, the practice of statistical engineering has gained recognition within NASA by spurring innovation and efficiency, and it has demonstrated significant impact. Aerospace research and development benefits from an application-focused statistical engineering perspective to accelerate learning, maximize knowledge, ensure strategic resource investment, and inform data-driven decisions. The second portion of this presentation provides an overview of infusing statistical engineering at NASA through pioneering case studies in aeronautics, space exploration, and atmospheric science.

Peter A Parker↗

NASA NTRS2023

Machine Learning Framework for Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) in Wildfire Response

This research proposes a natural language processing enabled risk analysis framework, named Hazard Extraction andAnalysis of Trends (HEAT), and applies the framework to the ICS-209-PLUS data set of wildfire incident responseforms. The HEAT framework produces safety- and risk- relevant analyses, consisting of: (1) a set of hazards extractedfrom text data, (2) a primary analysis using hazard-relevant metrics, such as rate and severity, to form an FMEA-styletable and risk matrix, (3) a time series analysis of metric trends, and (4) a secondary analysis examining potentialpredictors for hazards. Results from HEAT provide quantitative risk-relevant information for high-level hazards doc-umented in existing-state operations. Because of the generalizability of the steps and limited data requirements, HEATcan be applied to any dataset containing narrative text, thus providing a framework for data-driven machine learning-enabled quantitative risk analysis across a variety of domains. To demonstrate HEAT in a case study, we apply theframework to the ICS-209-PLUS dataset of wildland fire incident response forms. Hazards identified in wildfire re-sponse arise from environmental conditions, the mission, and the wildland urban interface. The resulting risk matrixidentifies evacuations as high-risk hazards, while all other identified hazards are medium or serious risk.

natural language processing↗

NASA NTRS2022

Albuquerque Urban Development: Enhancing Urban Cooling Interventions by Modeling Urban Forestry through NASA Earth Observations in Albuquerque, New Mexico

The City of Albuquerque, New Mexico is experiencing increasing urban heat island(UHI) effects, which impact the health, safety, and comfort of the community. In partnership with the City of Albuquerque Department of Environmental Health, Department of Parks and Recreation, and Let’s Plant Albuquerque!, this project used satellite Earth observations from April 2016–August 2022 to model increases in tree canopy within the City of Albuquerque to help combat the urban heat island in the city’s warmer areas over the next decade. Using Landsat 8’s Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and the Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the International Space Station (ECOSTRESS), along with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Cooling and ENVI-Met models, the team modeled tree cover interventions and created land surface temperature maps. These outputs will help the city make data-driven decisions for their tree planting goal in a targeted approach.

Max Stewart↗

NASA NTRS2022

NASA Symposium on Turbulence Modeling: Roadblocks, and the Potential for Machine Learning

A three-day symposium sponsored by NASA was held in July 2022 in Suffolk, Virginia on the subject of Turbulence Modeling: Roadblocks, and the Potential for Machine Learning. This meeting brought together over 80 experts from academia, government, and industry to discuss critical issues for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence and transition models, as well as to evaluate the results from a collaborative testing challenge based on data-driven methods and machine learning technology. This report puts this symposium in context with an earlier similar meeting and summarizes many of the questions, discussions, and conclusions that arose from it. Next steps are suggested.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2022

Natural Language Processing Techniques for Intelligent Knowledge Management of Safety Reports

Safety, failure, and incident reports are common artifacts across various domains, including aviation and wildfire response. These reports are often mandatory to submit, resulting in the culmination of large repositories of text-based documents. Simultaneously, these reports and corresponding repositories are often only manually analyzed and queried by users via out-of-date search engines. As a consequence, we have been developing the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) toolkit, which uses natural language processing to improve information access and reuse. In this presentation, we discuss natural language processing techniques for knowledge discovery and apply these methods to a repository of aerial wildfire mishap reports. Two methods are used for knowledge discovery: topic modeling and named-entity recognition. We use topic modeling to identify hazards and perform a trend analysis to produce a data-driven risk matrix. A custom named-entity recognition model, build from fine tuning a pre-trained language model, is used to identify failure modes, failure causes, failure effects, control processes, and recommendations to aid in failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Throughout the presentation, we discuss and apply natural language processing techniques to better leverage the vast amount of information contained in report repositories.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Contribution to Safety: Human Performance is Not Just About Error

- When the only data that are available are about human failure, then data-driven designs only consider that humans fail. - Designs intended to "protect" the system from "error-prone" humans can design-out the capability for humans to effectively intervene/adapt, which is a far more common behavior.

Jon Holbrook↗