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DOE OSTI2025

Are quantum materials economically and environmentally sustainable?

Quantum materials have revolutionized energy, information, and healthcare technologies, yet their development has largely prioritized performance over economic and environmental impacts—key factors for industrial adoption. Using topological materials as a case study, we present a data-driven framework that evaluates over 16,000 materials based on cost, supply chain resilience, energy demand, toxicity, and environmental footprint. By integrating the recently proposed quantum weight – a metric quantifying quantum behavior – we reveal a striking trend: materials with stronger quantum effects often exhibit higher environmental impact, posing challenges for scalability and industrial adoption. To address this, we identify a small set of materials that achieve a balance between quantum functionality and sustainability. Furthermore, our approach enables high-throughput, AI-driven materials discovery that incorporates economic and environmental influences from the outset, guiding the development of quantum materials for next-generation microelectronics and energy harvesting technologies.

AI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Pathways from Alternative Carbon Feedstocks to Organic Commodity Chemicals

The use of biogenic and waste feedstocks is a promising strategy to improve the chemical sector's supply chain resiliency and carbon intensity. To help inform research efforts that transform these feedstocks into industrial chemicals, we used a systematic analysis framework to consistently evaluate the economics and environmental impacts of >200 alternative production pathways for 51 organic commodity chemicals in the United States under an optimistic future scenario that reflects the potential upper bounds of process scalability, energy availability, and carbon uptake. Lower-impact and lower-cost alternative pathways were identified for all but three chemicals, with 75% using thermochemical routes and half leveraging existing manufacturing infrastructure. Scenario analysis shows that the ranking of these pathways for half of the assessed chemicals is particularly sensitive to carbon uptake assumptions and criteria prioritization (i.e., cost only, environmental impact only, or both), with changes in electricity grid mix, hydrogen source, and underlying mass and energy flow data proving less influential. Implementing alternative pathways for just 11 chemicals could support a transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from chemical production by 2050, with 11% lower cost than business as usual, similar water requirements, quadrupled electricity demand, and the use of most available woody biomass. These findings provide an exploratory guide toward a future chemical industry that harnesses alternative feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Facility Operations by Applying Machine Learning to the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System (Final Report)

Thousands of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) buildings have building automation systems (BASs) and/or advanced meters. Although these systems have a wealth of data, performance optimization requires time and expertise to review and act on that information. Machine learning (ML) can provide automated and actionable insights to controls operators. This demonstration implemented proven ML methods on the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System. ML refers to algorithms that “learn” from data and improve their performance on a given task over time. In the buildings domain these tasks range from predicting future energy consumption, to identifying operational issues before faults occur, to optimizing control decisions. To learn, ML requires input data, which – for buildings – typically consists of instrument data such as energy consumption data and subsystem controls information such as set-point temperatures, and context data consisting of information such as the physical location of the building, the area of the building, and the weather. ML models use the relationships learned from the input data to make predictions with new, previously unseen, data. The team was able to investigate and successfully implement the following ML use cases: labeling consumption data as anomalous or non-anomalous; baseline whole-building load prediction (unknown fault status); fault detection (validation not possible); and site prioritization for energy-related projects. Due to the constraints of the project, interventions were not able to be implemented during the demonstration; therefore, assessments of operational cost savings and maintenance avoided could not be performed. The project has been presented at two leading national building conferences and two additional publications to peer-reviewed journals are currently in preparation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving the performance of first- and last-mile mobility services through transit coordination, real-time demand prediction, advanced reservations, and trip prioritization

Socio-demographic trends and recent economic development patterns have resulted in travel behavior changes that call for more flexible and accessible public transit options. Because flexible transit services vary in scope, size, and service type, new data-informed methods are useful to optimize services based on the specific needs of local communities and riders. In this study, real-world demand and vehicle trajectory data were used to evaluate and optimize system performance for an existing first-mile–last-mile (FMLM) service in Robinson Township, PA. A general FMLM model for arbitrary demand and service supply was then developed to quantify system performance—both travel time costs and day-to-day reliability—for various operational polices considering spatio-temporal demand variation and transportation network dynamics. Heuristics were used for optimal real-time vehicle routing in sizable real-world networks accommodating various service types and scopes. In this case study, total user costs were reduced by 18.6% when rides were coordinated with mainline fixed-route transit. Predictive routing strategies were shown to marginally improve system performance under sparse and variable spatio-temporal demand. The case study also highlights potentially large travel time and user reliability improvements—reductions of 51% and 53.8%, respectively—when trip requests were made in advance of their desired pickup time. Finally, we show that travel time reliability can be improved for time-inflexible trips with trip prioritization without increasing total user costs. These results were stable to changes in demand density.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accuracy of predictions made by machine learned models for biocrude yields obtained from hydrothermal liquefaction of organic wastes

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) has potential for converting abundant wet organic wastes into renewable fuels. Because HTL consists of a complex reaction network, deterministic, physics-based prediction of its biocrude yield is prohibitively difficult. Data-driven methods provide an alternative to the physics-based approach; however, rigorous testing must be performed to ensure the accuracy of predictions made by data-driven methods. To this end, a data set was assembled consisting of 570 data points appearing in the open literature. The data set was divided into training, validation, and test sub-sets and used for evaluating different machine learning regression approaches to predict biocrude yield. Among the tested algorithms, Random Forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) predicted biocrude yields in a test set that had not been used for training with the greatest accuracy, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 8.34 and 8.57, respectively. Further refinement of the Random Forest model reduced its RMSE to 8.07. In comparison, predictions of a series of literature models resulted in RMSE ranging from 9.16 in the most accurate case to 27.6 in the least accurate; most literature models yielded RMSE values > 10. Using biocrude yield predictions from the most accurate Random Forest model and a probabilistic economic analysis found that the model accuracy is sufficient to prioritize allocation of resources based on projected minimum fuel selling price. In our report the models and analysis represent a major advance in the ability to use readily available data to predict biocrude yields on new feedstocks that have not previously been studied.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Disadvantaged Communities in the United States: An Energy-Oriented Mapping Tool that Aggregates Environmental and Socioeconomic Burdens

This paper defines a policy-relevant nationwide composite index to identify communities disproportionately impacted by environmental, energy, and climate injustices in the United States. We review existing vulnerability indicators and indices to assess the tradeoffs of different design parameters, including variable selection, geographic unit, dimensionality reduction, weighting, and aggregation methods. From this methodological review, we create the first nationwide, census tract-level index of cumulative burden that includes energy-relevant indicators alongside climate, social, environmental, and economic indicators, and is flexible to the inclusion of additional data sources. We provide a summary of the sources of inputs used to develop a definition for "disadvantaged communities" that can be used to prioritize energy investments. We discuss use-cases for this index including the implementation of the Justice40 Initiative, which calls for 40% of certain federal clean energy benefits to flow to disadvantaged communities in the United States. We use our results to examine historic allocations of federal energy investments and show that communities that we identify as disadvantaged received about 37% fewer funds per capita than non-disadvantaged communities.

cumulative burden↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Relative Climate Impact of Carbon Utilization for Concrete, Chemical, and Mineral Production

Estimates show that 6.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) can be captured and utilized across three pathways, concrete, chemical, and minerals, by 2050. However, it is difficult to compare the climate benefit across these three carbon capture and utilization (CCU) pathways to determine the most effective use of captured CO2. The life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the climate benefit of CCU chemicals should additionally account for the change in material properties of concrete due to CO2 utilization. Furthermore, with most CO2 utilization technologies being in the early stages of research and development, the uncertainty and variability in process and inventory data present a significant challenge in evaluating the climate benefit. We present a stochastically determined climate return on investment (ROI) metric to rank and prioritize CO2 utilization across 20 concrete, chemical and mineral pathways based on the realized climate benefit. We show that two concrete pathways, which use CO2 during concrete mixing, and two chemical pathways, which produce formic acid through hydrogenation of CO2 and carbon monoxide through dry reforming of methane, generate the greatest climate ROI and are the only CCU pathways with a higher likelihood of generating a climate benefit than a climate burden.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating Supply Prioritization Strategies for Risk-Informed Decision Making in an Arbitrary Gas Network

Supply disruptions and infrastructure failures in natural gas networks present critical challenges to energy reliability and risk-informed planning. This study evaluates two supply prioritization strategies, Maximum Delivery Prioritization (MDP) and Demand-Based Prioritization (DBP), within an arbitrary natural gas network under conditions of supply shortage. Model performance under both strategies is assessed in response to node and edge failure using demand satisfaction metrics, system-wide and localized dependency scores, and geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial analysis. Results show that DBP better preserves supply for high-demand nodes, while MDP offers broader coverage. The underlying network topology plays a critical role in shaping prioritization outcomes. Integrated GIS visualization enhances the interpretability of vulnerability assessments, revealing structurally critical components and localized vulnerabilities. The proposed framework supports scalable, data-driven decision-making for infrastructure planners and engineers, enabling improved disruption recovery and efficiency in constrained natural gas networks. These insights contribute to the development of more robust energy systems capable of withstanding stress and disruptions.

Peterson, Steven [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000287672998)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Survey of Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Volume II – Predicting Material Performance from Material Microstructure

This report describes the current state of modeling and simulation techniques for predicting the properties of materials fabricated with advanced manufacturing techniques, given the initial microstructure of the material. The report includes a literature survey and a gap analysis outlining and prioritizing key issues in applying these modeling and simulation techniques to nuclear reactor structural materials. The discussion covers both physics-based and data-driven modeling techniques and includes a broad range of manufacturing techniques and materials that may have future nuclear applications. This report is the second in a two-part series, with the first report covering modeling and simulation methods for predicting the initial, as-manufactured structure of advanced manufacturing materials, given a description of the process. Both reports focus on a set of manufacturing technologies likely to be applied to reactor structural components. Taken together, the two reports provide a complete summary of the current state of processing-structure-properties models for advanced manufacturing as well as a survey of applications to reactor structural materials

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1994

Wiring for space applications program

The insulation testing and analysis consists of: identifying and prioritizing NASA wiring requirements; selecting candidate wiring constructions; developing test matrix and formulating test program; managing, coordinating, and conducting tests; and analyzing and documenting data, establishing guidelines and recommendations.

Hammoud, Ahmad↗

NASA NTRS2000

Atomic Data in X-Ray Astrophysics

With the launches of the Chandra X-ray Observatory (CXO) and the X-ray Multimirror Mission (XMM) and the upcoming launch of the Japanese mission ASTRO-E, high resolution X-ray spectroscopy of cosmic sources has begun. Early, deep observations of three stellar coronal sources will provide not only invaluable calibration data, but will also give us benchmarks for the atomic data under collisional equilibrium conditions. Analysis of the Chandra X-ray Observatory data, and data from other telescopes taken simultaneously, for these stars is ongoing as part of the Emission Line Project. Goals of the Emission Line Project are: (1) to determine and verify accurate and robust diagnostics and (2) to identify and prioritize issues in fundamental spectroscopy which will require further theoretical and/or laboratory work. The Astrophysical Plasma Emission Database will be described in some detail, as it is introducing standardization and flexibility into X-ray spectral modeling. Spectral models of X-ray astrophysical plasmas can be generally classified as dominated by either collisional ionization or by X-ray photoionization. While the atomic data needs for spectral models under these two types of ionization are significantly different, there axe overlapping data needs, as I will describe. Early results from the Emission Line Project benchmarks are providing an invaluable starting place, but continuing work to improve the accuracy and completeness of atomic data is needed. Additionally, we consider the possibility that some sources will require that both collisional ionization and photoionization be taken into account, or that time-dependent ionization be considered. Thus plasma spectral models of general use need to be computed over a wide range of physical conditions.

Brickhouse, N. S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data Requirements for Application of Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis to Evaluate Hurricane Impact to Electrical Infrastructure in Puerto Rico

This paper presents a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis framework that was used to evaluate the hurricane impact to electrical infrastructure in Puerto Rico. PNNL developed a scalable risk-based framework for identifying high-voltage transmission resilience improvements by classifying and prioritizing high-risk power grid contingencies (system failures) under hurricane impact. The risk-based framework is founded on grid outage definitions with their associated probabilities of occurrence from hurricane events, in combination with an impact assessment derived from detailed dynamic cascading failure analysis. This paper focuses on a discussion around data requirements for transmission resilience planning for hurricane events, derived from the development of the risk-based framework and its application to Puerto Rico. This paper launches an important first step in encouraging the engineering community and power system industry to move towards establishing resilience planning as a routine practice. Since actual results for Puerto Rico contain sensitive information, sample simulation results will be used to illustrate the data requirements and risk-based dynamic cascading framework on the Puerto Rico power grid, as well as demonstrate the potential for such a simulation framework. The paper includes a discussion on the lessons learned, importance and need for improved datasets that are not usually considered in traditional power system planning. The paper will also elaborate on how the scalable simulation framework and datasets might be expanded to larger footprints and leveraged for modelling other types of natural disasters.

DCAT, Puerto Rico, hurricane, Power System Stabili↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Information Theory Approach on Deciding Spectroscopic Follow-ups

Classification and characterization of variable phenomena and transient phenomena are critical for astrophysics and cosmology. These objects are commonly studied using photometric time series or spectroscopic data. Given that many ongoing and future surveys are conducted in a time domain, and given that adding spectra provides further insights but requires more observational resources, it would be valuable to know which objects we should prioritize to have a spectrum in addition to a time series. We propose a methodology in a probabilistic setting that determines a priori which objects are worth taking a spectrum of to obtain better insights, where we focus on the insight of the type of the object (classification). Objects for which we query their spectrum are reclassified using their full spectral information. We first train two classifiers, one that uses photometric data and another that uses photometric and spectroscopic data together. Then for each photometric object we estimate the probability of each possible spectrum outcome. We combine these models in various probabilistic frameworks (strategies), which are used to guide the selection of follow-up observations. The best strategy depends on the intended use, whether it is obtaining more confidence or accuracy. For a given number of candidate objects (127, equal to 5% of the data set) for taking spectra, we improve the class prediction accuracy by 37% as opposed to 20% of a non-naive (non-random) best-baseline strategy. Our approach provides a general framework for follow-up strategies and can be extended beyond classification to include other forms of follow-ups beyond spectroscopy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Science Target Prioritization Framework for Remote Sensing

Behind the scenes of a remote sensing mission there are complex decision making and planning operations. Streamlining these operations, with a quantitative scientific value framework, aids efficient and optimized science data collection.While there have been previous efforts to quantify the science value for specific science scenarios, our work aims to develop a general framework which can be applied across different scenarios. We describe a pipeline of processes which combines model forecast and observation data, in computational forms, as dictated by the mission objectives set forth by subject matter experts. The framework is described with use cases involving the monitoring of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico and methane concentrations over interior Alaska.

Remote Sensing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Around Which Stars Can TESS Detect Earth-like Planets? The Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog

In the search for life in the cosmos, NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission has already monitored about 74% of the sky for transiting extrasolar planets, including potentially habitable worlds. However, TESS only observed a fraction of the stars long enough to be able to find planets like Earth. We use the primary mission data—the first two years of observations—and identify 4239 stars within 210 pc that TESS observed long enough to see three transits of an exoplanet that receives similar irradiation to Earth: 738 of these stars are located within 30 pc. We provide reliable stellar parameters from the TESS Input Catalog that incorporates Gaia DR2 and also calculate the transit depth and radial velocity semiamplitude for an Earth-analog planet. Of the 4239 stars in the Revised TESS HZ Catalog, 9 are known exoplanet hosts—GJ1061, GJ1132, GJ3512, GJ685, Kepler-42, LHS1815, L98-59, RRCae, and TOI700—around which TESS could identify additional Earth-like planetary companions. Thirty-seven additional stars host yet unconfirmed TESS Objects of Interest: three of these orbit in the habitable zone—TOI203, TOI715, and TOI2298. For a subset of 614 of the 4239 stars, TESS has observed the star long enough to be able to observe planets throughout the full temperate, habitable zone out to the equivalent of Mars’ orbit. Thus, the Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog provides a tool for observers to prioritize stars for follow-up observation to discover life in the cosmos. These stars are the best path toward the discovery of habitable planets using the TESS mission data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scaling Building Energy Audits through Machine Learning Methods on Novel Drone Image Data

Building energy audits are time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper describes a new method using machine learning (ML) techniques on novel data sources (drone images) to improve the identification of building characteristics and retrofit opportunities, and thereby reduce the effort for audits. The new ML method includes: (1) Building footprint extraction using line extraction, polygonization, and polygon-merging, (2) Building envelope extraction using PIX4d modeling software to reconstruct a building 3D model, (3) Visualization tool for viewing images from the 3D model, (4) Window-to-wall ratio (WWR) using state-of-art deep neural network semantic segmentation, (5) Envelope thermal anomaly detection using an unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithm, and (6) Rooftop energy equipment detection based on an object detection algorithm. The testing of this method involved a comparison of additional ML-generated information overlaid on current ‘state-of-practice’ audit and remote assessment baselines using evaluation metrics: labor time and associated cost, marginal benefits of using ML-generated information in workflows for audits and remote assessments, integration potential with existing processes and tools, and replicability/scalability of the method. In two test buildings in California that had comprehensive drawings and meter data available, the ML method effectively generated a building footprint, envelope, rooftop equipment, WWR, and locations of envelope thermal anomalies. Projected target segments of the ML method are sites with minimal drawings and energy data, and underserved sectors such as multistoried housing, disadvantaged communities, and schools for which the ML method can enable identification of building asset characteristics and prioritization of envelope retrofits and decentralized energy equipment retrofits.

Singh, Reshma↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Margin-Based Methods to Assess System Health

Health management of complex systems such as nuclear power plants is an essential task to guarantee system reliability. This task can be greatly enhanced by constantly monitoring asset status and performances and process such data (through anomaly detection, diagnostic, and prognostic computational algorithms) to identify asset degradation trends and faulty states. While such information and data are typically available for many of the assets, they are not propagated from the asset to the system level in order to identify the most critical assets and prioritize maintenance and surveillance activities. The main reason is driven by the fact that current reliability modeling techniques are inadequate to process such information/data. This is due to the nature of these techniques which are based on the concept of failure rate/probability that do not serve an operational context where quantitative asset health information is available. Simply stated, current reliability techniques serve a run-to-failure operational setting and not a predictive maintenance one where the goal is to perform maintenance and surveillance activities only when they are needed based on asset health. The risk informed asset management (RIAM) project is focusing on the development of a different kind of reliability modeling techniques designed to adequately serve a predictive operational setting. Such reliability techniques move aways from a failure rate/probability to a margin-based mindset where margin is here used as a metric to quantify asset health based only on current and past operational experience of the asset under consideration. In addition, margin-based reliability techniques are able to propagate asset health information from the component to system level and provide importance measure to each asset. This report summarizes a recent activity performed in collaboration with plant modernization pathway designed to integrate monitoring data into margin-based reliability models. Such activity focuses on a specific system of an existing nuclear power plant where large amount of historic monitoring data is used to monitor asset and system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A template of information needs for decision-making about delaying remediation on contaminated lands to protect human health

The contamination legacy of industrialization, militarization, and nuclear arms race poses current or future risks to populations and the environment. Responsible parties and regulators make decisions regarding which sites to clean up, how, how much, and when. This study aimed to provide an information needs template to evaluate and reduce risks to human health when considering whether to initiate or delay remediation. This investigation focused on four aspects of timing and prioritization: 1) management, planning and implementation, 2) source terms, pathways, and exposures, 3) risks and receptors, and 4) external drivers. Within each type, issues were identified and described. Management class included personnel, health and safety data, funding, equipment, and structural integrity. Source term included contaminant sources, pathways, initiating events, and barriers to exposure. Risk included types and exposures to workers and general public. External drivers included regulatory framework, stakeholders, Congressional mandates, and economic and social contexts. Risk may increase over time as contamination spreads, enters aquifers, and reaches receptors, and may decline as radionuclides decay, and plumes dissipate. The overall objective was to provide a template of information that is useful to managers and regulators, and might be used by the public to understand the risks and benefits of re-prioritization cleanup.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗