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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2009

An Investigation of Rotorcraft Stability-Phase Margin Requirements in Hover

A cooperative study was performed to investigate the handling quality effects from reduced flight control system stability margins, and the trade-offs with higher disturbance rejection bandwidth (DRB). The piloted simulation study, perform on the NASA-Ames Vertical Motion Simulator, included three classes of rotorcraft in four configurations: a utility-class helicopter; a medium-lift helicopter evaluated with and without an external slung load; and a large (heavy-lift) civil tiltrotor aircraft. This large aircraft also allowed an initial assessment of ADS-33 handling quality requirements for an aircraft of this size. Ten experimental test pilots representing the U.S. Army, Marine Corps, NASA, rotorcraft industry, and the German Aerospace Center (DLR), evaluated the four aircraft configurations, for a range of flight control stability-margins and turbulence levels, while primarily performing the ADS-33 Hover and Lateral Reposition MTEs. Pilot comments and aircraft-task performance data were analyzed. The preliminary stability margin results suggest higher DRB and less phase margin cases are preferred as the aircraft increases in size. Extra care will need to be taken to assess the influence of variability when nominal flight control gains start with reduced margins. Phase margins as low as 20-23 degrees resulted in low disturbance-response damping ratios, objectionable oscillations, PIO tendencies, and a perception of an incipient handling qualities cliff. Pilot comments on the disturbance response of the aircraft correlated well to the DRB guidelines provided in the ADS-33 Test Guide. The A D-3S3 mid-term response-to-control damping ratio metrics can be measured and applied to the disturbance-response damping ratio. An initial assessment of LCTR yaw bandwidth shows the current Level 1 boundary needs to be relaxed to help account for a large pilot off-set from the c.g. Future efforts should continue to investigate the applicability/refinement of the current ADS-33 requirements to large vehicles, like an LCTR.

Blanken, Chris L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Models for Wall Temperature Predictions in Post-Critical Heat Flux Flow Regimes at Subcooled and Low-Quality Conditions

Accurately predicting post-critical heat flux (CHF) heat transfer is an important but challenging task in water-cooled reactor design and safety analysis. Although numerous heat transfer correlations have been developed to predict post-CHF heat transfer, these correlations are only applicable to relatively narrow ranges of flow conditions due to the complex physical nature of the post-CHF heat transfer regimes. In this paper, a large quantity of experimental data is collected and summarized from the literature for steady-state subcooled and low-quality film boiling regimes with water as the working fluid in vertical tubular test sections. In addition, a low-quality water film boiling (LWFB) database is consolidated with a total of 22,813 experimental data points, which cover a wide flow range of the system pressure from 0.1 to 9.0 MPa, mass flux from 25 to 2750 kg/m 2 s, and inlet subcooling from 1 to 70 °C. Two machine learning (ML) models, based on random forest (RF) and gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT), are trained and validated to predict wall temperatures in post-CHF flow regimes. The trained ML models demonstrate significantly improved accuracies compared to conventional empirical correlations. To further evaluate the performance of these two ML models from a statistical perspective, three criteria are investigated and three metrics are calculated to quantitatively assess the accuracy of these two ML models. For the full LWFB database, the root-mean-square errors between the measured and predicted wall temperatures by the GBDT and RF models are 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively, confirming the accuracy of the two ML models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Developing an Air Quality Index for Space Vehicles and Habitats

The development of an adequate tool to help the layperson understand pollution levels in their environment is of high importance. This tool must be able to inform about the levels of pollution in a simple and understandable way but also can be used for decision-making and mitigation activities to protect the health of the exposed population. One of the most useful and up-to-date approaches for characterizing air pollution is the Air Quality Index (AQI). It is an easily-calculated, powerful, data-driven tool that summarizes a complex phenomenon, such as air pollution, in straightforward indicators. The AQI system has been developed in different countries around the world, mainly for outdoor environments, based on the results of risk assessments, epidemiological studies, and current local air pollution regulations and standards. There is a need for such a system in low gravity indoor environments where air quality is of fundamental importance to astronaut health, with concerns encompassing both gaseous contaminants and particulate matter. Earth-based AQIs cannot be extrapolated to microgravity indoor environments due to different aerosol transport characteristics and altered lung deposition in low and partial gravity. The objectives of this work are to explore what areas of expertise, types of research, and data will be required to formulate a spacecraft-specific AQI. An initial dataset is available for this effort, combined from two aerosol sampling experiments, which have characterized airborne particulate matter on the International Space Station (ISS). We outline future research needs for formulating a narrowly focused version of a widely-used metric, namely, an indoor AQI for future space missions.

Sorek-Hamer, Meytar↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cryo-EM model validation recommendations based on outcomes of the 2019 EMDataResource challenge

This paper describes outcomes of the 2019 Cryo-EM Model Challenge. The goals were to (1) assess the quality of models that can be produced from cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) maps using current modeling software, (2) evaluate reproducibility of modeling results from different software developers and users and (3) compare performance of current metrics used for model evaluation, particularly Fit-to-Map metrics, with focus on near-atomic resolution. Our findings demonstrate the relatively high accuracy and reproducibility of cryo-EM models derived by 13 participating teams from four benchmark maps, including three forming a resolution series (1.8 to 3.1 Å). The results permit specific recommendations to be made about validating near-atomic cryo-EM structures both in the context of individual experiments and structure data archives such as the Protein Data Bank. We recommend the adoption of multiple scoring parameters to provide full and objective annotation and assessment of the model, reflective of the observed cryo-EM map density.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗
NASA NTRS2016

Study of Material Consolidation at Higher Throughput Parameters in Selective Laser Melting of Inconel 718

Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is a powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process used increasingly in the aerospace industry to reduce the cost, weight, and fabrication time for complex propulsion components. SLM stands poised to revolutionize propulsion manufacturing, but there are a number of technical questions that must be addressed in order to achieve rapid, efficient fabrication and ensure adequate performance of parts manufactured using this process in safety-critical flight applications. Previous optimization studies for SLM using the Concept Laser M1 and M2 machines at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have centered on machine default parameters. The objective of this work is to characterize the impact of higher throughput parameters (a previously unexplored region of the manufacturing operating envelope for this application) on material consolidation. In phase I of this work, density blocks were analyzed to explore the relationship between build parameters (laser power, scan speed, hatch spacing, and layer thickness) and material consolidation (assessed in terms of as-built density and porosity). Phase II additionally considers the impact of post-processing, specifically hot isostatic pressing and heat treatment, as well as deposition pattern on material consolidation in the same higher energy parameter regime considered in the phase I work. Density and microstructure represent the "first-gate" metrics for determining the adequacy of the SLM process in this parameter range and, as a critical initial indicator of material quality, will factor into a follow-on DOE that assesses the impact of these parameters on mechanical properties. This work will contribute to creating a knowledge base (understanding material behavior in all ranges of the AM equipment operating envelope) that is critical to transitioning AM from the custom low rate production sphere it currently occupies to the world of mass high rate production, where parts are fabricated at a rapid rate with confidence that they will meet or exceed all stringent functional requirements for spaceflight hardware. These studies will also provide important data on the sensitivity of material consolidation to process parameters that will inform the design and development of future flight articles using SLM.

Prater, Tracie↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of the SMAP Passive Soil Moisture Product

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission was launched on January 31, 2015. The observatory was developed to provide global mapping of high-resolution soil moisture and freeze-thaw state every two to three days using an L-band (active) radar and an L-band (passive) radiometer. After an irrecoverable hardware failure of the radar on July 7, 2015, the radiometer-only soil moisture product became the only operational Level 2 soil moisture product for SMAP. The product provides soil moisture estimates posted on a 36 kilometer Earth-fixed grid produced using brightness temperature observations from descending passes. Within months after the commissioning of the SMAP radiometer, the product was assessed to have attained preliminary (beta) science quality, and data were released to the public for evaluation in September 2015. The product is available from the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This paper provides a summary of the Level 2 Passive Soil Moisture Product (L2_SM_P) and its validation against in situ ground measurements collected from different data sources. Initial in situ comparisons conducted between March 31, 2015 and October 26, 2015, at a limited number of core validation sites (CVSs) and several hundred sparse network points, indicate that the V-pol Single Channel Algorithm (SCA-V) currently delivers the best performance among algorithms considered for L2_SM_P, based on several metrics. The accuracy of the soil moisture retrievals averaged over the CVSs was 0.038 cubic meter per cubic meter unbiased root-mean-square difference (ubRMSD), which approaches the SMAP mission requirement of 0.040 cubic meter per cubic meter.

passive↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems

This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Stochastic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Algorithm for Dynamic Load Prioritization in Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Increasing deployment of advanced sensing, controls, and communication infrastructure enables buildings to provide services to the power grid, leading to the concept of grid-interactive efficient buildings. Since occupant activities and preferences primarily drive the availability and operational flexibility of building devices, there is a critical need to develop occupant-centric approaches that prioritize devices for providing grid services, while maintaining the desired end-use quality of service. In this paper, we present a decision-making framework that facilitates a building owner/operator to effectively prioritize loads for curtailment service under uncertainties, while minimizing any adverse impact on the occupants. The proposed framework uses a stochastic (Markov) model to represent the probabilistic behavior of device usage from power consumption data, and a load prioritization algorithm that dynamically ranks building loads using a stochastic multi-criteria decision-making algorithm. The proposed load prioritization framework is illustrated via numerical simulations in a residential building use-case, including plug-loads, air-conditioners, and plug-in electric vehicle chargers, in the context of load curtailment as a grid service. Suitable metrics are proposed to evaluate the closed-loop performance of the proposed prioritization algorithm under various scenarios and design choices. Scalability of the proposed algorithm is established via computational analysis, while time-series plots are used for intuitive explanation of the ranking choices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the use of air temperature and precipitation as surrogate predictors in soil respiration modelling

Soil respiration (R S ), the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux that is a major component of the global carbon cycle, is strongly influenced by local soil temperature (T soil ) and water content (SWC). Regional to global-scale R S modelling thus requires this information at local scales, but few high-quality, wall-to-wall (global) T soil and SWC data exist. As a result, such modelling efforts commonly use air temperature (T air ) and monthly precipitation (P m ) as surrogate predictors, but their site-scale accuracy and potential bias are unknown. In this report we used monthly data from 880 sites across a wide variety of different environmental conditions (i.e., climate, ecosystem type, elevation, vegetation leaf habit and drainage conditions) to determine the suitability of T air as a surrogate for T soil , and data from 507 sites to examine the suitability of P m as a surrogate for SWC. Site-specific linear and second-order exponential non-linear models were compared using model evaluation metrics (i.e., slope, p-value of slope, root mean square error [RMSE], index of agreement and model efficiency). We found that T soil and T air are highly correlated and explain similar R S variability. In contrast, P m is not a good surrogate for SWC, even though P m explains a similar amount of R S variability to SWC. The wide variability in the site-specific relationships between R S and SWC means that no single relationship can be used for large-scale modelling. The results from this study support the use of T air in continental-to-global scale R S models, and highlight the urgent need for continental-to-global scale SWC datasets for the modelling and evaluation of future soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows

This report details recent progress for the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows”. We refer to the project as IPPD/2, reflecting the 2017 renewal under expanded scope and partners In IPPD/2, we increased our research scope to include data motion. We are focusing on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. This new work on data motion will augment and complement IPPD/2’s research that focused on the computational aspects of tasks. We leverage and extend our existing tools and demonstrate our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II. The highlights of our work are as follows: Provenance for Workflows: Provenance is used to provide information enabling quality control, re-run computational workflows, and reproduce results. IPPD/2 has been building a scalable provenance management system that enables the capture of provenance from the high-level workflow through all relevant system levels in one integrated environment. Leveraging this work, our recent efforts have included using provenance as an enabling technique. Workload characterization: Leveraging provenance and analysis, we characterize data movement within network, storage, and memory over a variety of workloads. This characterization enables an understanding by performance analysts and application developers of the range of behaviors that could be expected. Performance Prediction for Workflows: The goal of modeling distributed workflows is to understand performance bottlenecks and enable more intelligent task scheduling to optimize selected metrics of interest (e.g., task throughput or output data rate). IPPD/2 has utilized both analytical and AI/ML modeling methodologies for performance modeling. Advanced Scheduling and Fault Modeling for Workflows: Scheduling of large-scale scientific workflows on geographically distributed resources is a challenging problem. To improve workflow throughput, we combined novel scheduling algorithms with task predictions from performance modeling and fault modeling. Dynamically Alleviating Bottlenecks in Workflows: Exploiting our provenance, analysis, and modeling efforts, we have explored and developed several techniques for dynamically detecting and alleviating bottlenecks in data movement. In particular, we have spent considerable effort demonstrating our techniques on production-like workflow configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Causal Inference Model Based on Random Forests to Identify the Effect of Soil Moisture on Precipitation

Soil moisture influences precipitation mainly through its impact on land–atmosphere interactions. Understanding and correctly modeling soil moisture–precipitation (SM–P) coupling is crucial for improving weather forecasting and subseasonal to seasonal climate predictions, especially when predicting the persistence and magnitude of drought. However, the sign and spatial structure of SM–P feedback are still being debated in the climate research community, mainly due to the difficulty in establishing causal relationships and the high degree of nonlinearity in land–atmosphere processes. To this end, we developed a causal inference model based on the Granger causality analysis and a nonlinear machine learning model. This model includes three steps: nonlinear anomaly decomposition, nonlinear Granger causality analysis, and evaluation of the quality of SM–P feedback, which eliminates the nonlinear response of interannual and seasonal variability and the memory effects of climatic factors and isolates the causal relationship of local SM–P feedback. We applied this model by using National Climate Assessment–Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) datasets over the United States. Here, the results highlight the importance of nonlinear atmosphere responses in land–atmosphere interactions. In addition, the strong feedback over the southwestern United States and the Great Plains both highlight the impacts of topographic factors rather than only the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore, the SM–P index defined by our framework is used to benchmark Earth system models (ESMs), which provides a new metric for efficiently identifying potential model biases in modeling local land–atmosphere interactions and may help the development of ESMs in improving simulations of water cycle variability and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

CCSDS Advanced Orbiting Systems Virtual Channel Access Service for QoS MACHETE Model

To support various communications requirements imposed by different missions, interplanetary communication protocols need to be designed, validated, and evaluated carefully. Multimission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE), described in "Simulator of Space Communication Networks" (NPO-41373), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 29, No. 8 (August 2005), p. 44, combines various tools for simulation and performance analysis of space networks. The MACHETE environment supports orbital analysis, link budget analysis, communications network simulations, and hardware-in-the-loop testing. By building abstract behavioral models of network protocols, one can validate performance after identifying the appropriate metrics of interest. The innovators have extended the MACHETE model library to include a generic link-layer Virtual Channel (VC) model supporting quality-of-service (QoS) controls based on IP streams. The main purpose of this generic Virtual Channel model addition was to interface fine-grain flow-based QoS (quality of service) between the network and MAC layers of the QualNet simulator, a commercial component of MACHETE. This software model adds the capability of mapping IP streams, based on header fields, to virtual channel numbers, allowing extended QoS handling at link layer. This feature further refines the QoS v existing at the network layer. QoS at the network layer (e.g. diffserv) supports few QoS classes, so data from one class will be aggregated together; differentiating between flows internal to a class/priority is not supported. By adding QoS classification capability between network and MAC layers through VC, one maps multiple VCs onto the same physical link. Users then specify different VC weights, and different queuing and scheduling policies at the link layer. This VC model supports system performance analysis of various virtual channel link-layer QoS queuing schemes independent of the network-layer QoS systems.

Jennings, Esther H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distributionally Robust Decision Making Leveraging Conditional Distributions

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a powerful tool for decision making under uncertainty. It is particularly appealing because of its ability to leverage existing data. However, many practical problems call for decision-making with some auxiliary information, and DRO in the context of conditional distributions is not straightforward. We propose a conditional kernel distributionally robust optimization (CKDRO) method that enables robust decision making under conditional distributions through kernel DRO and the conditional mean operator in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). In particular, we consider problems where there is a correlation between the unknown variable y and an auxiliary observable variable x. Given past data of the two variables and a queried auxiliary variable, CKDRO represents the conditional distribution P(y|x) as the conditional mean operator in the RKHS space and quantifies the ambiguity set in the RKHS as well, which depends on the size of the dataset as well as the query point. To justify the use of RKHS, we demonstrate that the ambiguity set defined in RKHS can be viewed as a ball under a metric that is similar to the Wasserstein metric. The DRO is then dualized and solved via a finite dimensional convex program. The proposed CKDRO approach is applied to a generation scheduling problem and shows that the result of CKDRO is superior to common benchmarks in terms of quality and robustness.

Chen, Yuxiao↗
DOE OSTI2026

Establishment of a Vertically Integrated Domestic Manufacturing Process for Production of Substrates Needed for Manufacture of Gas Diffusion Layers

In this project, AvCarb, LLC evaluated the baseline performance metrics of commercial carbon veils and their corresponding Gas Diffusion Layers (GDLs) with the goal of establishing an optimized, vertically integrated production system for wet-laid nonwoven substrates used in gas diffusion media for electrochemical energy storage and conversion devices. Mechanical testing and microstructural characterization were conducted and used to develop a multiscale computational model capable of simulating and predicting the performance of GDLs in fuel cells. Although the project successfully generated foundational transport and modeling data, it was terminated prior to identifying the critical GDL design parameters necessary for full optimization. The program aimed to improve carbon veil fabrication through enhanced fiber dispersion, fiber-fiber adhesion control, and improved web formation, enabling the production of high-quality, uniform substrates. Simulations were intended to guide mixing and solution delivery system design and process conditions, followed by production-scale trials to evaluate fiber dispersion, web uniformity, and mechanical robustness. At full deployment, the proposed production line would have been capable of producing approximately 650,000 m² of carbon veil annually. This capability remains strategically important, as the United States currently lacks a domestic source of wet-laid nonwoven carbon substrates that satisfy the stringent quality requirements for fuel-cell GDLs and electrolyzers representing an ongoing supply-chain vulnerability. Beyond supply-chain benefits, the project established a robust benchmarking dataset for existing commercial carbon veils while advancing next-generation material concepts targeting improved performance and manufacturing consistency.

Olson, Cynthia Lemay↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ambient Mass Spectrometry Rapid Analysis Methods for Trace Inorganics

The ability to rapidly detect and characterize the chemistry of trace quantities of inorganic species has multiple potential applications, including nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and environmental monitoring. Some mass spectrometric methods currently exist, but they are costly and time-intensive, often destroying chemical information in the process of ionization. Ambient mass spectrometry is a relatively new analytical method in which samples are introduced to the mass spectrometer from atmospheric pressure, rather than from high vacuum. Ambient MS can operate with gentler ionization methods such as electrospray ionization (ESI) and paper-spray ionization (PSI), reducing fragmentation and preserving the chemical information of the analyte. This may be useful for determining the intended purpose of material in a sample. Strontium, part of nuclear fallout, is analyzed here to test these new analytical methods for viability. Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry functions by spraying the sample as a solution through a needle charged to a few kV. A nebulizing gas flows out along with the sample to create the spray before droplets enter a drying chamber with heated drying gas to remove the solvent molecules. From there bare analyte ions enter the mass spectrometer. This method has the advantage of relatively fast sample preparation and stable ionization. More stable ionization produces higher-quality data. Paper-spray ionization mass spectrometry operates by applying sample to a paper triangle. The paper triangle is then electrified in a metal clamp to a few kV before spray solvent is applied. The spray solvent transports analyte in the sample to the tip, where it is ionized and enters the mass spectrometer. One advantage of this method is reduced sample preparation - an analyst can even swipe a surface and cut a triangle directly from the swipe. The data analysis serves to rapidly process tens of samples all at once. The mass spectrometer outputs a file containing a few hundred spectra for each sample. The pipeline processes each one to identify peaks of interest. A full palette of data analysis metrics are generated, including plots of the raw data and plots of calculated values such as isotopic ratios. The pipeline filters the raw data to remove noise and background peaks, as well as peaks representing detector saturation. A heat map is generated to show the overall spectrum in mass-time- intensity space. Post-processing, we obtained the desired calibration curves, demonstrating that both ESI-MS and PSI-MS are viable methods for quantifying trace amounts of inorganics while retaining their chemical speciation information. ESI-MS demonstrated a linear response region of 100 ppb to 20 ppm, with a limit-of-detection of around 100 ppb. At top left is an example spectrum with the {sup 88}SrNO{sub 3} peak identified to show the retention of chemical speciation. PSI-MS showed a linear response region of around 1 ppb to 1 ppm, with a limit-of-detection of near 1 ppb. PSI-MS produced more erratic results than ESI-MS, likely due to the variability in ionization resulting from manual positioning of the paper triangle near the MS inlet. Future efforts will focus on improving the repeatability of PSI-MS as well as analyzing other species of interest such as cerium and uranium. Improvements will also be made to create more reliable data extraction and intelligent data filtering.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗