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DOE OSTI2025

EAGLE-I Power Outage Data 2024

The provided EAGLE-I historic dataset includes power outage information at the county level for 2024 at 15-minute intervals collected by the EAGLE-I program at ORNL. The data has been collected from utility's public outage maps using an ETL process. The dataset details FIPS code, county name, state name, total number of customers without power, total customers per county, and a date/timestamp. For detailed metadata, refer to the linked metadata DOI.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis of Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a Kriging, i.e., Gaussian process modeling enabled data-driven GSA method. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol index can be conveniently calculated to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to various power injection variations. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the IEEE 37-bus feeder, such as the polynomial chaos expansion and the Monte Carlo approaches demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA outcomes while maintaining high computational efficiency.

distribution system analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Solar System (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

GTI Energy (GTI) teamed with the University of California at Merced (UCM) to scaleup the hybrid solar system (HSS) technology for demonstrating its performance at the US Gypsum (USG) plant in Plaster City, California. The technology integrates two-stage concentrating solar collector with matching particle thermal transport and storage (TSS) system to deliver cost-effective, and on-demand distributed high temperature industrial process heat up to 600°C with solar thermal, in this case to a gypsum kettle, to reduce its fuel use and carbon footprint. Current solar technologies, which reach these temperatures, are not distributable (towers) or cost-effective (dish). The research team developed a conceptual system design for host site retrofit, including preliminary heat balance, process flow diagram, particle to process heat exchanger and equipment placements at the site. Subsequently, parallel efforts were carried out at UCM to design, build and test a 12 m long commercial scale prototype concentrating thermal-only collector system and at GTI to design, build and test a matching 650°C capable particle TTS system. The nominal 50 kWth collector consists of a parabolic trough and three 4 m long two-stage receivers in series. Prior to on-sun testing, a 4 m long receiver was fabricated and successfully tested at 650 °C in a laboratory setting for 100 hrs of continuous operation showing less than 15% radiation loss. A 7 m wide x 17 m long parabolic trough was then installed at UCM for on-sun testing of the 12 m long receiver, and concurrently several 4 m long receivers were built. The optics of the parabolic trough were calibrated, and on-sun test were carried out on 12 m long receivers. During tests, the intense solar radiation (53x) caused the absorber tubes in the receivers to bend, reducing the overall optical efficiency. To address the bending issue, a self-consistent algorithm that includes ray tracing, thermal and deformation models was developed to perform thermal stress analysis on absorbers for parabolic solar collectors. Results obtained with this algorithm showed a dramatic rise in deformation as absorber tube length increases. A combined efficiency parameter that includes the occluded area for the mounts was developed to obtain an optimized tube length obtained. Based on the results, a length of 2.7 m for the absorber + 0.2 m for the coupler was chosen to minimize any bending and optimize optical efficiency while maintaining ease of mounting. The associated particle TTS system was designed, built and successfully tested at GTI. It includes storage, receiving and lock hoppers and piping that simulates the transfer of captured solar energy to an actual industrial furnace. Tests over 77 charge-discharge cycles demonstrated <2% particle degradation, with no problematic particle accumulations and no flow interruptions. The piping pressure drop was about 5 psi. The team also worked with Stanley Consultants (Stanley) to prepare conceptual and preliminary engineering packages to facilitate follow-on development and commercialization efforts. These include process and instrumentation diagram’s (P&ID’s), general arrangements, electrical one-line, project definitions document, equipment data sheets, schedule, and construction cost estimate for 2 MWth system. Updated HSS technology commercialization and customer engagement plans and detailed costs and evaluated market trade-offs and manufacturing.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructural dependence of defect formation in iron-oxide thin films

In this report passivating iron-oxide films are grown atop iron films simulating the corrosion process in a nuclear reactor environment. Two oxide films grown via physical vapor deposition at 600 °C and room temperature exhibited dense-epitactic and columnar-polycrystalline, microstructures respectively. A third oxide film grown in open air at 600 °C exhibited an eqiuaxed, porous morphology. Cubic maghemite and magnetite phases in each oxide film were identified via grazing incidence X-ray diffraction. Positron annihilation spectroscopy was used to characterize point defects and measure their depth and size distributions in each oxide layer and showed a range of average positron lifetimes from 0.23 ns in the high temperature, vapor deposited film, 0.35 ns in the room temperature-grown film, and 0.31 ns in the thermally grown oxide. These data indicate that the film morphology, which varies greatly in these films, leads to very different defect content. Finally, four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy was used to measure the internal stress of each film and was correlated to the strain state presented in the X-ray diffraction spectra. The defect formation in each film is reasoned through using a thin film growth model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Digital Twin Model for Advanced Manufacture of a Rotating Detonation Engine Injector

A digital twin material model (DTMM) of an additive manufacturing (AM) process was created to advance the state of the art in rotating detonation engine (RDE) injector design. Current RDE injectors are designed with large pressure drops, enabling a stable and repeatable combustion process. However, this comes at the cost of system efficiency. For the technology to transition to commercial fossil-based power generation, it is important to develop injectors with reduced flow losses. Low-loss injectors are difficult to design and manufacture with conventional manufacturing techniques. AM enables new design options, but the AM manufacturing process must be thoroughly understood to result in a robust design. A DTMM provides the necessary insight by defining the cause-effect relationships between process parameters, microstructure features, and properties. Therefore, a DTMM to support the design and manufacturing process was developed and applied to the design of a new additively manufactured low-loss injector. The injector combustion behavior was characterized through hot-fire tests, and mechanical performance was compared to the DTMM predictions. The two project goals were the successful development of the DTMM and the demonstration of an improved RDE injector design. The RDE injector design and DTMM developments occurred on parallel but dependent paths. The injector was designed to reduce pressure drop by increasing the cross-sectional flow area ratio between the injector air passages and the combustor annulus. This resulted in less structural material, raising the concern that thin members would be susceptible to high-cycle fatigue (HCF) under the periodic loading inherent to an RDE. It was most important for the DTMM to predict behavior in these features; therefore, the injector design concept guided the material thicknesses used in fatigue tests. The DTMM development started by manufacturing a series of coupons over the range of possible AM process variations. A design-of-experiment approach was used to select which process variable combinations gave the most efficient coverage relevant to the injector design space. The microstructure in each of these coupons was characterized, and then computational methods were used to create a numerical model of the correlation between process variables and microstructure. Next, a set of HCF samples were tested to calibrate existing models that map microstructure to HCF performance. Together, these two links formed the DTMM that calculates HCF behavior from AM process variables. Two injector prototypes were additively manufactured. The first injector design strategy aggressively pursued low-loss performance by substantially increasing the oxidizer flow area. The combination of manufacturing lead times and the fatigue testing schedule meant that the DTMM was not available when building this first prototype. Therefore, its process parameters were chosen based on a manual review of the available coupon data. This prototype was built successfully and evaluated in 58 combustion tests. Sustained detonation was achieved with remarkably reduced pressure loss, and some tests even displayed pressure loss characteristics similar to conventional gas turbine combustors. This achieved the project goal of improving RDE injector design. The second injector was manufactured according to the optimized parameters predicted by the DTMM. The flow area modifications of this injector were less aggressive than the first injector since demonstrating low pressure loss was not an objective of the second hot-fire test series. Rather, the test objective was to cause high cycle fatigue failure in the part due to periodic loading from the rotating detonation wave. The observed number of cycles to failure was to be compared to the number predicted by the DTMM and thereby assess the utility of the DTMM in component design. However, the required level of vibration was not obtained during combustion. Therefore, high cycle fatigue was not experienced in the hot-fire tests of the second injector. Fatigue data was obtained by further testing the second injector in a conventional HCF test apparatus. The injector demonstrated HCF strength above the DTMM prediction. In fact, it did not fail and testing was only discontinued due to reaching the end of the period of performance. This points to some success in the project’s primary goal of successfully developing and applying the DTMM to a component design. Implementing the DTMM recommendations for optimal processing parameters led to a part with acceptable properties. The DTMM was also shown to be an efficient correlator of data and to provide insight into the relationship between process settings, microstructure, and property performance. However, the failure of the DTMM prediction to match the experimental result of the injector fatigue test also points to the need to include significantly more data in the model development. In this project, coupons made with identical processing parameters exhibited drastically different properties from each other and from the injector part, which clearly influences the accuracy of a model that predicts performance based on parameters. Uncertainties in the build process must be quantified to develop more robust models. A denser and broader matrix of coupon process and geometry variations, several repeated builds of every point, more in-situ build process measurements, and direct observation of tensile and HCF sample microstructure (as opposed to separate microstructure specimens) are recommendations to improve future AM modeling efforts.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

AEcroscopy: A Software–Hardware Framework Empowering Microscopy Toward Automated and Autonomous Experimentation

Microscopy has been pivotal in improving the understanding of structure-function relationships at the nanoscale and is by now ubiquitous in most characterization labs. However, traditional microscopy operations are still limited largely by a human-centric click-and-go paradigm utilizing vendor-provided software, which limits the scope, utility, efficiency, effectiveness, and at times reproducibility of microscopy experiments. Here, in this work, a coupled software–hardware platform is developed that consists of a software package termed AEcroscopy (short for Automated Experiments in Microscopy), along with a field-programmable-gate-array device with LabView-built customized acquisition scripts, which overcome these limitations and provide the necessary abstractions toward full automation of microscopy platforms. The platform works across multiple vendor devices on scanning probe microscopes and electron microscopes. It enables customized scan trajectories, processing functions that can be triggered locally or remotely on processing servers, user-defined excitation waveforms, standardization of data models, and completely seamless operation through simple Python commands to enable a plethora of microscopy experiments to be performed in a reproducible, automated manner. This platform can be readily coupled with existing machine-learning libraries and simulations, to provide automated decision-making and active theory-experiment optimization to turn microscopes from characterization tools to instruments capable of autonomous model refinement and physics discovery.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive cold-load pickup considerations in 2-stage microgrid unit commitment for enhancing microgrid resilience

In an extended main grid outage spanning multiple days, load shedding serves as a critical mechanism for islanded microgrids to maintain essential power and energy reserves that are indispensable for fulfilling reliability and resiliency mandates. However, using load shedding for such purposes leads to increasing occurrence of cold load pickup (CLPU) events. Here, this study presents an innovative adaptive CLPU model that introduces a method for determining and incorporating parameters related to CLPU power and energy requirements into a two-stage microgrid unit commitment (MGUC) algorithm. In contrast to the traditional fixed-CLPU-curve approach, this model calculates CLPU duration, power, and energy demands by considering outage durations and ambient temperature variations within the MGUC process. By integrating the adaptive CLPU model into the MGUC problem formulation, it allows for the optimal allocation of energy resources throughout the entire scheduling horizon to fulfill the CLPU requirements when scheduling multiple CLPU events. The performance of the enhanced MGUC algorithm considering CLPU needs is assessed using actual load and photovoltaic (PV) data. Simulation results demonstrate significant improvements in dispatch optimality evaluated by the amount of load served, customer comfort, energy storage operation, and adherence to energy schedules. These enhancements collectively contribute to reliable and resilient microgrid operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)

Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator (SPHERE) Long Duration Testing

For heat-pipe cooled microreactor development, it is essential to understand the characteristics of heat pipes and how they function under a wide range of operating conditions. An important process for heat-pipe cooled microreactor development is the passive heat removal and how the performance may change over long periods of time. Increased experimental data provides additional information to assess the operational lifetime of alkali metal heat pipes. Idaho National Laboratory has completed testing over a long duration of a high-performance sodium filled heat pipe while monitoring axial temperature profile, power supplied by the heaters, and heat removed by a gas-gap calorimeter. The results from this testing can aid in heat pipe validation efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deuterium supersaturated surface layer in tungsten: ion energy dependence

Abstract Properties of deuterium (D) supersaturated surface layers (DSSLs) formed in tungsten (W), such as thickness, internal microstructures, and D retention, are experimentally investigated as a function of the incident ion energy, E i . W samples were exposed to D plasmas in the PISCES-A linear plasma device in a range of E i ∼ 45–175 eV, while other plasma exposure parameters were fixed: sample temperature, T s , ∼423 K, ion flux, Γ i , ∼1.2 × 10 21 m −2 s −1 , and fluence, Φ i , ∼3.0 × 10 24 m −2 . High-resolution, cross-sectional, transmission electron microscopy observations confirm that (1) a DSSL forms even at the lowest E i ∼ 45 eV, (2) the DSSL thickness, Δ t DSSL , is found to decrease with decreasing E i from ∼11–12 nm at E i ∼ 175 eV to ∼5–6 nm at ∼45 eV, and to agree with approximately the maximum implantation depth calculated using SDTrimSP, and (3) high-density D nanobubbles with a diameter of ∼1 nm or less exist inside the DSSL, which is deemed to validate a theory-predicted vacancy stabilization process due to trapping of a solute D atom(s). Utilizing a D areal density of ∼4.2 × 10 19 m −2 in the first 14 nm from the surface at E i ∼ 75 eV from nuclear reaction analysis and the measured E i dependence of Δ t DSSL , our previous laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy data is updated: both dynamic and static D retention increase with decreasing E i , and the D/W atomic fraction during plasma exposure reaches ∼0.3 at E i ∼ 45 eV. A possible DSSL formation mechanism is proposed.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2021

How Cooperative Engagement Programs Strengthen Sequencing Capabilities for Biosurveillance and Outbreak Response

The threat of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases continues to be a challenge to public and global health security. Cooperative biological engagement programs act to build partnerships and collaborations between scientists and health professionals to strengthen capabilities in biosurveillance. Biosurveillance is the systematic process of detecting, reporting, and responding to especially dangerous pathogens and pathogens of pandemic potential before they become outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. One important tool in biosurveillance is next generation sequencing. Expensive sequencing machines, reagents, and supplies make it difficult for countries to adopt this technology. Cooperative engagement programs help by providing funding for technical assistance to strengthen sequencing capabilities. Through workshops and training, countries are able to learn sequencing and bioinformatics, and implement these tools in their biosurveillance programs. Cooperative programs have an important role in building and sustaining collaborations among institutions and countries. One of the most important pieces in fostering these collaborations is trust. Trust provides the confidence that a successful collaboration will benefit all parties involved. With sequencing, this enables the sharing of pathogen samples and sequences. Obtaining global sequencing data helps to identify unknown etiological agents, track pathogen evolution and infer transmission networks throughout the duration of a pandemic. Having sequencing technology in place for biosurveillance generates the capacity to provide real-time data to understand and respond to pandemics. We highlight the need for these programs to continue to strengthen sequencing in biosurveillance. By working together to strengthen sequencing capabilities, trust can be formed, benefitting global health in the face of biological threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Cost of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in California Between 2019 and 2032

California’s energy planning is centered around meeting the emissions reduction and renewable energy requirements of Senate Bill 350 by 2030. However, state power system planning is expected to eventually address California’s requirement to achieve 100% of total retail electricity sales from renewable energy and zero-carbon resources by 2045, as mandated by Senate Bill 100. To comply with these directives, California needs to investigate the further development of energy efficiency, storage, and a diverse range of renewable energy, zero-carbon emission, and transmission resources, including offshore wind. Wind resources off the coast of California have the potential to generate a significant portion of the state’s electric energy as it moves toward a zero-carbon economy and can help diversify its energy mix. Floating offshore wind technology, which is suitable for the deep waters along the California coast, is currently in a precommercial phase, with approximately 84 megawatts (MW) installed worldwide at the end of 2019. Globally there are over 7,000 MW in planning and permitting phases of development, with the first commercial-scale projects expected to be operational in 2024. This study provides site-specific cost and performance data for floating offshore wind to inform California’s long-term energy planning. The identification of new resources to meet California’s policy goals at least cost is part of the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, which is coordinated by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). In 2019–2020 IRP modeling, offshore wind was included for the first time as a candidate resource in some sensitivity cases (CPUC 2019). The data and information presented in this report can be used to update offshore wind inputs in future IRP cycles. The authors conducted a geospatial cost analysis over portions of the offshore wind resource area of California. The analyzed spatial domain includes sites with a mean wind speed of at least 7 meters per second and water depths between 40 meters (m) and 1,300 m. Costs and energy production vary across this analysis domain. We calculated these parameters on a grid layout with over 750 sites, with each site representing a 1,000-MW commercial offshore wind power plant. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated at each site over the analysis domain. The resulting variation in LCOE across the analysis domain is illustrated through heat maps in this report. Five study areas were selected within the analysis domain where more detailed cost analysis was conducted and cost parameters, such as annual energy production, capital cost expenditures (CapEx), operational cost expenditures (OpEx), and net capacity factors are reported. These five study areas include Morro Bay, Diablo Canyon, Humboldt, Cape Mendocino and Del Norte.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Temperature 2D Optical Relaxation Visualizes Enhanced Oxygen Exchange Kinetics at Metal-Mixed Conducting Oxide Interfaces

Solid-state heterointerfaces are of interest for emergent local behavior that is distinct from either bulk parent compound. One technologically relevant example is the case of mixed ionic/electronic conductor (MIEC)–metal interfaces, which play an important role in electrochemistry. Metal–MIEC composite electrodes can demonstrate improved catalytic activity vs single-phase MIECs, improving fuel cell efficiency. Similarly, MIEC surface reaction kinetics are often evaluated using techniques that place metal current collectors in contact with the surface under evaluation, potentially altering the response vs the native surface. Here, techniques enabling direct and local in situ observation of the behavior at and around such heterointerfaces are needed. Here, we develop a spatially resolved optical transmission relaxation (2D-OTR) method providing continuous evaluation of local, high-temperature, controlled atmosphere defect kinetics across a ~1 cm2 sample area simultaneously in a contact-free manner. We apply it to observe the spatial variance of oxygen incorporation and evolution rates at ~525–620 °C, in response to step changes in oxygen partial pressure, on MIEC SrTi 0.65 Fe 0.35 O 3–x films as a function of distance from porous Pt and Au layers. Using this model geometry, we find significant enhancements in kinetics adjacent to the metals that decay over a few millimeter distance. To extract kinetic parameters, we fit the short-term optical data (initial portion of relaxations) with an exponential decay function appropriate for surface-exchange-limited kinetics, yielding apparent surface exchange coefficients (k chem ) with spatial resolution, decreasing with distance from the metal. To understand the kinetic processes governing the complete (long-term) optical relaxations, we performed COMSOL simulations, which demonstrated that a combination of laterally varying k chem and in-plane diffusion controls the observed kinetics over the full time range. Further support for spatially varying kchem comes from demonstrations of changing surface and bulk chemistry vs distance from the metal–MIEC interface, by X-ray photoelectron and optical absorption spectroscopies, respectively. Although microporous Pt and Au are not excellent electrodes in isolation, both metals exert a synergistic effect on the oxygen surface exchange rate in the presence of the mixed conducting film.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Smart Grid: A Survey

The smart grid is enabling the collection of massive amounts of high-dimensional and multi-type data about the electric power grid operations, by integrating advanced metering infrastructure, control technologies, and communication technologies. However, the traditional modeling, optimization, and control technologies have many limitations in processing the data; thus, the applications of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in the smart grid are becoming more apparent. This survey presents a structured review of the existing research into some common AI techniques applied to load forecasting, power grid stability assessment, faults detection, and security problems in the smart grid and power systems. It also provides further research challenges for applying AI technologies to realize truly smart grid systems. Finally, this survey presents opportunities of applying AI to smart grid problems. The paper concludes that the applications of AI techniques can enhance and improve the reliability and resilience of smart grid systems.

energy systems↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution WRF-Based Downscaling of Earth System Model Projections for Energy Applications across CONUS

Evaluating energy resources under future scenarios requires meteorological information that adequately resolves regional-scale variability and is suitable for regional energy system studies. Although Earth system model (ESM) outputs provide essential large-scale context, their coarse resolution and inherent biases limit direct use in energy system applications. This work presents a high-resolution dynamical downscaling framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate energy-relevant regional fields for future scenarios over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The framework first identifies an optimal WRF configuration through sensitivity experiments, then evaluates raw and bias-corrected ESM initial and boundary conditions, with soil moisture and soil temperature bias correction implemented as an integral component of the bias-corrected ESM atmospheric forcing prior to WRF dynamical downscaling to improve land-atmosphere interactions. Simulations performed at 4-km resolution show that uncorrected ESM forcing leads to systematically dry and cold soil states, which propagate into elevated near-surface air temperature and solar irradiance biases, particularly during summer for the period 2000-2014. Incorporating bias-corrected atmospheric forcing together with soil state bias correction substantially reduces these errors and improves the representation of surface energy processes in WRF simulations. The results highlight the importance of bias-aware initialization strategies in high-resolution dynamical downscaling for future energy system analysis and planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Large Distribution System with PVs using Deep Gaussian Process

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the voltage to uncertain power injection variations plays an important role for appropriate Volt-VAR optimization. This paper proposes a data-driven GSA method for large-scale distribution systems with a large number of uncertain sources. Specifically, the deep Gaussian process is used to identify the mapping relationship between uncertain power injections and voltages. This allows us to resort to the analysis of variance framework to calculate the Sobol indices for GSA. Unlike the existing polynomial chaos expansion and Gaussian process-based approaches, our proposed method has much better scalability. Test results on the EPRI 1747-node K1 circuit with a different number and different probability distributions of uncertain sources demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA under various conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observation of Topological Chirality Switching Induced Freezing of a Skyrmion Crystal

Magnetic skyrmions are topologically protected quasi-particles with a well-defined chirality. Control over their chirality is proposed as an additional feature for encoding data bits or as qubits in quantum computing due to their high efficiency and stability against achiral magnetic textures. Here it is shown that an in-plane magnetic field can be utilized to reshape the energy barriers between different skyrmionic bubbles (e.g., Bloch type, type-II) enabling spontaneous chirality fluctuations with a frequency that increases with the strength of the in-plane field. The insulating van der Waals ferromagnet CrBr3 is used as an archetypal system for low damping, reduced energy dissipation and a high number of magnetic phases to capture the chirality dynamics in real time through cryo-Lorentz transmission electron microscopy. It is observed that the interplay between the intrinsic Dzyaloshinskii–Moriya interaction and out-of-plane field biased the chirality dynamics, favoring one handedness over the other. A remarkable consequence of the spontaneous chirality switching mechanism is that it induces a freezing (or crystallization) process in the skyrmion lattice. As the bubbles fluctuate between Bloch and type-II they elongate and shrink parallel to the in-plane field. Subsequently, the overall lattice crystallizes along the in-plane field direction, inducing a phase transition from a disordered liquid state to a hexatic phase where skyrmions are highly ordered resembling that of a solid. The results indicate chirality as an active element in the creation of topologically protected skyrmion crystals unveiling pathways toward chiral spintronic device platforms with tunable embedded configuration.

2D Phase Transition↗