Selection of a Pair of Experiments to Optimally Reduce Uncertainty in Targeted Nuclear Data
We propose a novel process to select a pair of differential and integral experiments that best reduce uncertainties in targeted 239 Pu nuclear data while compressing the current nuclear data pipeline from 20 to 3 years. 239 Pu nuclear data are poorly understood for neutrons in the intermediate energy range due to sparsity and uncertainty in historical experiments. New experiments targeting this range will enable better understanding of these nuclear data, but choosing the ideal experiments to conduct is challenging. Beginning with a prior distribution represented by samples of nuclear data generated from theory, generalized least squares adjustments are made to incorporate data from historical experiments. To quantify potential uncertainty reduction obtainable from a pair of candidate experiments, we compute the D-optimality criterion of the posterior covariance of intermediate energy range nuclear data compared to the equivalent covariance after additional adjustment to the pair of candidate experiments. Repeating the process for each of many candidate pairs facilitates the final selection. Results support 63 Cu total cross section measurements for differential experiments and alumina and alumina/graphite configurations for integral experiments. This analysis enables choosing differential and integral experiments to be executed concurrently while shortening decision times relative to the current nuclear data pipeline.