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DOE OSTI2022

Combined TREAT-LOC & SATS Integral LOCA Experiment Plan

The Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) loss-of-coolant (LOC) and highburnup (HBu) experiment series, along with the Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) HBu experiment series, are integral LOC accident (LOCA) experiments planned under the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) program, which aims to support burnup extension needs by addressing identified R&D priorities in order to achieve an improved understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) of HBu fuel during LOCA events. Priorities have been identified by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)’s Collaborative Research on Advanced Fuel Technologies (CRAFT) Fuel Performance and Testing Technical Experts Group (FPTTEG). The data produced under this plan will be used to further validate and confirm existing models and inform future R&D and model development. The experimental program was specifically developed to address data gaps and opportunities identified via detailed review of the existing public knowledge base on LOCA FFRD, as well as reviewing specific experimental development activities regarding prototypic LOCA conditions for light-water reactor (LWR) systems. The test program relies on a unique combination of in- and out-of-pile experimental approaches to provide a clear tieback to the existing integral and semi-integral LOCA experiment database, using state-of-the-art facilities. More importantly, the program will systematically investigate the impacts of prototypic HBu fuel/cladding thermomechanical behaviors under postulated LWR LOCA conditions not yet fully investigated. These conditions correspond with prototypic decay-energy heatup (DEH) and stored-energy heatup (SEH) conditions. First, TREAT’s unique capability will enable the first evaluation of the impact of SEH conditions on HBu fuels. The test program will emphasize the development of an improved mechanistic understanding of key phenomena through independent experimental systems, development of a database to support fuel performance modeling tools, world-leading advanced materials characterization, and the most advanced approach to in situ diagnostics ever deployed to evaluate FFRD. The results will represent a significant leap forward in evaluating prototypic conditions and novel data to support modeling development and validation, as well as to inform the technical basis for LOCA-induced FFRD.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

AMR-Wind: A Performance-Portable, High-Fidelity Flow Solver for Wind Farm Simulations

We present AMR-Wind, a verified and validated high-fidelity computational-fluid-dynamics code for wind farm flows. AMR-Wind is a block-structured, adaptive-mesh, incompressible-flow solver that enables predictive simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer and wind plants. It is a highly scalable code designed for parallel high-performance computing with a specific focus on performance portability for current and future computing architectures, including graphical processing units (GPUs). In this paper, we detail the governing equations, the numerical methods, and the turbine models. Establishing a foundation for the correctness of the code, we present the results of formal verification and validation. The verification studies, which include a novel actuator line test case, indicate that AMR-Wind is spatially and temporally second-order accurate. The validation studies demonstrate that the key physics capabilities implemented in the code, including actuator disk models, actuator line models, turbulence models, and large eddy simulation (LES) models for atmospheric boundary layers, perform well in comparison to reference data from established computational tools and theory. We conclude with a demonstration simulation of a 12-turbine wind farm operating in a turbulent atmospheric boundary layer, detailing computational performance and realistic wake interactions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code

The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Production of high fluence laser beams using ion wave plasma optics

Optical components for laser beams with high peak and averaged powers are being developed worldwide using stimulated plasma scattering that occurs when plasmas interact with intense, coherent light. After decades of pursuit of pulse compressors, mirrors, and other plasma based components that can be created by stimulated scattering from electron density perturbations forming on ultra-short time scales (e.g., via Stimulated Raman Scattering), more recent work has produced optical components on longer time scales allowing ion motion as well [via Stimulated Brillouin Scattering (SBS)]. In the most recent work, ion wave plasma optics have had success in producing pulses of focusable coherent light with high energy and fluence by operating on ns time scales and now promise to enable numerous applications. Experiments have further shown that in some parameter regimes, even simple plasma response models can describe the output of such optics with sufficient accuracy that they can be used as engineering tools to design plasma optics for future applications, as is already being done to control power deposition in fusion targets. In addition, the development of more sophisticated models promises to enable still higher performance from SBS driven plasma optical components under a wider range of conditions. The present status and most promising directions for future development of ion wave plasma optic techniques are discussed here.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment and Improvement of Fission Product Transport Predictions of Particle Fuel in BISON

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. This study was motivated by the need to incorporate more physics-based models in BISON in order to foster tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) applications. This document details the integration of new modeling capabilities in BISON, including (1) development of pyrolytic carbon (PyC) and silicon carbide (SiC) layer anisotropic thermal and mass transport capabilities, (2) verification of the mass diffusion solution in TRISO modeling, (3) calibration of fission product diffusivity using Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) experiments, (4) improved fission product release modeling by developing compact diffusion modeling capabilities, and (5) documentation of accelerated failure analysis on the BISON website. Improvements made to the diffusion models and parameters were documented and validated against AGR-1 and -2 experiment data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Massively Parallel Bayesian Model Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification with Applications to Nuclear Fuels and Materials

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in a nuclear reactor is governed by a complex network of mechanisms interacting with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent the fuel behavior will likely be idealized resulting in uncertainties in their predictions compared to the observed data. As such, this report was motivated by the need to identify the sources of uncertainties and quantify and propagate them through the fuel model outputs. Such quantification of uncertainties will establish a level of model trustworthiness, identify approaches to improve the model trustworthiness, and even guide optimal experiment design for maximal information gain. To accomplish the uncertainty quantification for computational models, this report has relied on the Bayesian framework which provides probabilistic treatment of models their inputs and outputs. The current state-of-the-art on performing Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for nuclear engineering models using High Performance Computing (HPC) resources have been reviewed. Implementation of capabilities for massively parallel Bayesian UQ in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is discussed. Several verification cases are discussed to verify the accuracy of the quantified uncertainties using the developed computational capabilities in MOOSE. Then, the problem of quantifying the uncertainties in TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) fuel silver release is addressed. For the first time, the uncertainties arising from the TRISO Fission Gas Release (FGR) model due to model inadequacy and experimental noise are quantified. Also, the Bayesian capabilities are applied to the calibration of the MATPRO creep model, a widely used model in several fuel assessment cases. The impact of the prediction uncertainties in the MATPRO model on the fuel cladding behavior as part of the TRIBULATION assessment case (which is an integral effects case) is investigated. This report concludes with a discussion on the future work for the UQ for computational models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combined TREAT-LOC and SATS LOCA Experiment Plan: Integral LOCA Experiments on High-Burnup Fuels

The Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) loss-of-coolant (LOC) and high-burnup (HBu) experiment series, along with the Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) HBu experiment series, are integral LOC accident (LOCA) experiments planned under the DOE AFC program, which aim to support burnup extension needs by addressing identified R&D priorities in order to achieve an improved understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) of HBu fuel during LOCA events. The data produced under this plan will be used to further validate and confirm existing models and inform future R&D and model development. The experimental program has been specifically designed to address knowledge gaps and opportunities identified through a detailed review of existing public knowledge on LOCA FFRD. The test program employs a unique combination of in- and out-of-pile experimental approaches and state-of-the-art facilities to provide a clear connection to the existing integral and semi-integral LOCA experiment database. The primary goal of the program is to investigate the impact of prototypic HBu fuel/cladding thermomechanical behaviors under postulated LWR LOCA conditions that have not yet been fully studied. These conditions correspond with prototypic decay-energy heatup (DEH) and stored-energy heatup (SEH) conditions. Importantly, TREAT’s unique capability will enable the first evaluation of the impact of SEH conditions on HBu fuels. The test program will emphasize the development of an improved mechanistic understanding of key experimental phenomena through independent experimental systems, development of a database to support fuel performance modeling tools and employing world-leading advanced materials characterization and in-situ diagnostics to evaluate FFRD. The results of the program will provide novel data to support modeling development and validation and will represent a significant advancement in evaluating prototypic conditions, as well as to inform the technical basis for LOCA-induced FFRD.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Develop and Connect TRISO Failure Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Fission Product Release Calculation Capability

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Stress-based failure probability has been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles. While simple, stress-based approaches to failure probability leveraging the Weibull statistical distribution entails a number of drawbacks when stress concentration occurs near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency. In this report, we use an interaction integral approach to the computation of stress intensity factors in functionally graded materials (FGM) for axisymmetric models. The inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) cracking induced silicon carbide (SiC) failure is one of the dominated failure modes in TRISO failure analysis. In this study, we consider a crack in the IPyC layer perpendicular to the SiC layer. The interface between these two TRISO layers is considered to be porous, which we simulate considering a transition of mechanical properties over the porous length. These aspects are considered in the computation of stress intensity factor (SIF) from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known stress-based failure probability approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of low-density, high-performance operation of sustained spheromaks and favorable scalability toward compact, low-cost fusion power plants (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project worked to advance the technical viability of a novel method for efficiently sustaining stable, high-performance spheromak plasma configurations to serve as the basis of compact, low-cost fusion power plants. In particular, our group worked to improve the method of Steady Inductive Helicity Injection (SIHI) with Imposed-Dynamo Current Drive (IDCD) for spheromak plasma sustainment. Prior to this project demonstrations of this plasma sustainment technology have achieved plasma performance consistent with entry milestone 3 of the BETHE FOA. Research and development (R&D) activities for this project were focused on increasing plasma performance toward a level consistent with exit milestone 4. To do this the PI and his group worked to increase the performance of sustained spheromaks produced in an existing experimental prototype (HIT-SIU) while improving confidence in projections to and design of future, higher performance devices through three primary R&D activities: 1) Improved control over the density of plasma in the device throughout a discharge to provide a pathway for demonstration of spheromaks Ohmically heating to the Mercier beta limit via: a. Fueling the device directly with plasma through the installation of pre-ionized source on the injectors b. Optimization of electrical current waveforms in the driver circuits to enable low-density plasma formation with a lower fueling rate 2) Computational demonstration of a validated, realistic injector circuit coupled to a dynamic plasma model capable of use as a design tool for SIHI drivers and associated circuits for new experimental design points on the pathway to commercial reactors. The improvements in plasma performance achieved during research activity 1), and the computational projections performed in research activity 2) increased the technological readiness level (TRL) of this fusion energy concept toward a level sufficient to attract early-stage private investment and/or other forms of follow-on investment to pursue required R&D activities required for the eventual fusion power plants based on this novel technical approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

ResStock: Annual Baseline Results with Component Loads

The ResStock Analysis Tool was developed by NREL with support from the U.S. Department of Energy to provide a new approach to large-scale residential analysis by combining large public and private data sources, statistical sampling, detailed sub hourly building simulations, and high-performance computing. This combination achieves unprecedented granularity and accuracy in modeling the diversity of the housing stock and the distributional impacts of building technologies in different communities. The annual baseline energy results from a national-scale ResStock run use typical meteorological year 3 (TMY3) files for energy simulations. Results include heating and cooling loads for individual components of each building. Component loads describe the heating/cooling load that can be attributed to specific elements of a home, such as heat transfer through walls or internal gains. Additionally, these results include the standard ResStock outputs for housing characteristics and numerous energy outputs by end-use and fuel. A snapshot of the ResStock version used to produce this data, including a configuration file for the run can be found using the Source Code resource link.

Array↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analyzing Distributed Processing For Electric Utilities

Distributed Processing Trade-Off Model for Electric Utility Operation computer program based upon study performed at California Institute of Technology for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Study presented technique addressing question of tradeoffs between expanding communications network or expanding capacity of distributed computers in energy-management systems (EMS) of electric utility. Gives EMS planners macroscopic tool for evaluation of architectures of distributed-processing systems and major technical and economic tradeoffs as well as interactions within systems.

Klein, Stanley A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Human Dimensions of Energy Systems Workshop - September 6-7, 2022: Findings and Next Steps

Advanced energy technologies and informed policies are necessary but not sufficient to accelerate the energy transition at the speed required to meet our shared climate and energy resilience goals. To fully understand and implement integrated energy systems, we need to be able to model and analyze the complete system-of-systems, including the behavior of people interacting with and being impacted by energy systems. The purpose of this workshop is: Understand how human behavior and decisions affect the performance of energy systems with a focus on resilience and human well-being; Identify opportunities to improve energy system design to explicitly consider human behavior and well-being; Enhance our capability to model and predict human actions. Develop the ability to stress test these integrated systems; Identify or develop requirements and tools for more robust system designs that can be used for human-in-the-loop exercises and training; Identify opportunities for joint research, joint appointments, and collaboration; and Guide internal investments and strategic hires.

analyze↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Thermal Management Strategies for Data Centers: A Physical Testbed Incorporating Small Modular Reactor and Microreactor Technology

This study aims to accelerate the demonstration of various thermal management systems for data centers using nuclear-generated heat to enhance energy and grid reliability. Utilizing mobile containerized and stationary test beds at INL's High Performance Computing (HPC) facility, this project integrates with various nuclear-related energy systems testing facilities. Key components include immersion cooling apparatus, absorption chillers, and adjustable thermal management simulators. Tasks involve acquiring necessary hardware, sensors, and cooling apparatus, engaging with data center industry stakeholders, and providing a testing platform for algorithms, models, tools, and software. The objective is to expedite the deployment of nuclear-powered data centers, thereby improving energy reliability and affordability.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mortar-based Cohesive Zone Model with Application to TRISO Particle Debonding

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. This report outlines work towards the development of an integrated, mortar-based cohesive zone framework with mechanical contact. We model debonding of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) layers using a mortar approach, extending the framework used for mechanical contact, using weighted quantities. A bilinear mixed mode traction approach, already used in Jiang et al. (2021), is applied analogously herein to model debonding between TRISO particle layers. The examples include the debonding of the inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) from the silicon carbide (SiC) layers, as well as partial and full debonding of the buffer from the IPyC layers. Both 2D and 3D examples are utilized to demonstrate the superior numerical performance of the new mortar approach, which allows for modeling arbitrarily meshed interfaces (i.e., non-matching discretizations).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Look-ahead Contingency Analysis Integration with Commercial Tool and Practical Data

This paper presents an initial effort of integrating a smart sampling-based probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm with General Electric (GE) Grid Solutions’ commercial energy management system (EMS) tool as a proof-of-concept for a seamless research tool integration using real world large-scale grid data. With the increasing impact of random forces such as variable generation and load, their stochastic behaviors cannot be ignored. However, the current practices are still dominated by deterministic tools. They are becoming increasingly inadequate for the future grid. The developed look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm incorporates forecast errors of variable energy and load to address the challenges brought by the increasing uncertainty of power system. The algorithm can reveal the potential violations caused by the variance of variable energy and load that are not normally detected by traditional deterministic approaches. To test its performance under practical environments ( real data with real commercial tool), significant efforts have been made to prepare test cases, modify GE EMS tool, and adapt an extreme value distribution algorithm to analyze the GE EMS’s violation-only outputs. The test results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed algorithm as new transformer violations that were not previously detected have been identified. This performance provides better situational awareness to engineers for their decision-making process under uncertainty. Moreover, with the discussion of computational performance and future work, this paper has shown a clear path for integrating the probabilistic algorithm with commercial tools to make us better equipped for the changing power system.

Modeling and simulation of power systems, constrai↗

DOE OSTI2023

Barrier-free predictions of short-range ordering/clustering kinetics in binary FCC solid solutions

We present comparisons of kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations of isothermal short-range ordering (SRO) and clustering (SRC) kinetics in binary FCC alloys with a mean-field concentration wave (CW) model. We find that the CW model is able to give order-of-magnitude agreement with kMC simulations for ordering/clustering relaxation times over a wide range of temperatures and compositions. The advantage of the CW model is that it does not require parameterization of vacancy hopping energy barriers, which, for a concentrated alloy, becomes prohibitive. We assess limits in the accuracy of the model and discuss the effect of cooling rates as well as the extension to multi-component systems. Ultimately, the simplicity and performance of the CW model compared to kMC simulations suggests that it is a useful tool to connect with models of properties dependent on SRO/SRC as well as for designing thermal treatments to control formation of SRO/SRC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗