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At least 379 records · Page 21

Ensemble‐Based, Large‐Eddy Reconstruction of Wind Turbine Inflow in a Near‐Stationary Atmospheric Boundary Layer Through Generative Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT To validate the second‐by‐second dynamics of turbines in field experiments, it is necessary to accurately reconstruct the winds going into the turbine. Current time‐resolved inflow reconstruction techniques estimate wind behavior in unobserved regions using relatively simple spectral‐based models of the atmosphere. Here, we develop a technique for time‐resolved inflow reconstruction that is rooted in a large‐eddy simulation model of the atmosphere. Our “large‐eddy reconstruction” technique blends observations and atmospheric model information through a diffusion model machine learning algorithm, allowing us to generate probabilistic ensembles of reconstructions for a single 10‐min observational period. Our generated inflows can be used directly by aeroelastic codes or as inflow boundary conditions in a large‐eddy simulation. We verify the second‐by‐second reconstruction capability of our technique in three synthetic field campaigns, finding positive Pearson correlation coefficient values () between ground‐truth and reconstructed streamwise velocity, as well as smaller positive correlation coefficient values for unobserved fields (spanwise velocity, vertical velocity, and temperature). We validate our technique in three real‐world case studies by driving large‐eddy simulations with reconstructed inflows and comparing to independent inflow measurements. The reconstructions are visually similar to measurements, follow desired power spectra properties, and track second‐by‐second behavior ().

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Observation of conformational dynamics in single light-harvesting proteins from cryptophyte algae

Photosynthetic organisms use pigment–protein complexes to capture the sunlight that powers most life on earth. Within these complexes, the position of the embedded pigments is all optimized for light harvesting. At the same time, the protein scaffold undergoes thermal fluctuations that vary the structure, and, thus, photophysics, of the complexes. While these variations are averaged out in ensemble measurements, single-molecule spectroscopy provides the ability to probe these conformational changes. We used single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy to identify the photophysical substates reflective of distinct conformations and the associated conformational dynamics in phycoerythrin 545 (PE545), a pigment–protein complex from cryptophyte algae. Rapid switching between photophysical states was observed, indicating that ensemble measurements average over a conformational equilibrium. A highly quenched conformation was also identified, and its population increased under high light. This discovery establishes that PE545 has the characteristics to serve as a photoprotective site. Finally, unlike homologous proteins from the evolutionarily related cyanobacteria and red algae, quenching was not observed upon photobleaching, which may allow for robust photophysics without the need for rapid repair or replacement machinery. Collectively, these observations establish the presence of a rich and robust set of conformational states of PE545. Cryptophytes exhibit particularly diverse energetics owing to the variety of microenvironments in which they survive, and the conformational states and dynamics reported here may provide photophysical flexibility that contributes to their remarkable ability to flourish under diverse conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Study region: Northeastern United States (NEUS). Study focus: We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5-20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonlinear dynamics and quantum chaos of a family of kicked p -spin models

Herein we introduce kicked p-spin models describing a family of transverse Ising-like models for an ensemble of spin-1/2 particles with all-to-all p-body interaction terms occurring periodically in time as delta-kicks. This is the natural generalization of the well-studied quantum kicked top (p = 2) [Haake, Kus', and Scharf, Z. Phys. B 65, 381 (1987)]. We fully characterize the classical nonlinear dynamics of these models, including the transition to global Hamiltonian chaos. The classical analysis allows us to build a classification for this family of models, distinguishing between p = 2 and p > 2, and between models with odd and even p's. Quantum chaos in these models is characterized in both kinematic and dynamic signatures. For the latter, we show numerically that the growth rate of the out-of-time-order correlator is dictated by the classical Lyapunov exponent. Finally, we argue that the classification of these models constructed in the classical system applies to the quantum system as well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

3D diffractive imaging of nanoparticle ensembles using an x-ray laser

Single particle imaging at x-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) has the potential to determine the structure and dynamics of single biomolecules at room temperature. Two major hurdles have prevented this potential from being reached, namely, the collection of sufficient high-quality diffraction patterns and robust computational purification to overcome structural heterogeneity. We report the breaking of both of these barriers using gold nanoparticle test samples, recording around 10 million diffraction patterns at the European XFEL and structurally and orientationally sorting the patterns to obtain better than 3-nm-resolution 3D reconstructions for each of four samples. With these new developments, integrating advancements in x-ray sources, fast-framing detectors, efficient sample delivery, and data analysis algorithms, we illuminate the path towards sub-nanometer biomolecular imaging. The methods developed here can also be extended to characterize ensembles that are inherently diverse to obtain their full structural landscape.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SYK wormhole formation in real time

We study the real time formation of the ground state of two coupled SYK models. This is a highly entangled state which is close to the thermofield double state and can be viewed as a wormhole. We start from a high temperature state, we let it cool by coupling to a cold bath. We numerically solve for the large N dynamics. Our main result is that the system forms a wormhole by going through a region with negative specific heat, taking time that is independent of N. The dynamics is smooth everywhere and it seems to follow the equilibrium thermodynamic configurations of the microcanonical ensemble. Also we comment on the relation between this coupled SYK model and Jackiw-Teitelboim gravity theory with bulk fields.

1/N expansion↗

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of reconfigurable artificial spin ice: Toward magnonic functional materials

Over the past few years, the study of magnetization dynamics in artificial spin ices has become a vibrant field of study. Artificial spin ices are ensembles of geometrically arranged, interacting magnetic nanoislands, which display frustration by design. These were initially created to mimic the behavior in rare earth pyrochlore materials and to study emergent behavior and frustration using two-dimensional magnetic measurement techniques. Recently, it has become clear that it is possible to create artificial spin ices, which can potentially be used as functional materials. In this perspective, we review the resonant behavior of spin ices in the GHz frequency range, focusing on their potential application as magnonic crystals. In magnonic crystals, spin waves are functionalized for logic applications by means of band structure engineering. While it has been established that artificial spin ices can possess rich mode spectra, the applicability of spin ices to create magnonic crystals hinges upon their reconfigurability. Consequently, we describe recent work aiming to develop techniques and create geometries allowing full reconfigurability of the spin ice magnetic state. We also discuss experimental, theoretical, and numerical methods for determining the spectral response of artificial spin ices and give an outlook on new directions for reconfigurable spin ices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbon budgets and leaf area index

Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model – Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R dark ). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R dark to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling. In global simulations, steeper canopy gradients of R dark lead to increased understory survival and leaf biomass. Leaf area index (LAI) increased up to 77% in tropical regions compared with the default parameterization, improving alignment with remotely sensed benchmarks. Global vegetation carbon varied from 308 Pg C to 449 Pg C across the ensemble. In tropical forest simulations, steeper gradients of R dark had a large impact on successional dynamics. Results show the importance of canopy gradients in leaf traits and fluxes for determining plant carbon budgets and emergent ecosystem properties such as competitive dynamics, LAI, and vegetation carbon. The high-model sensitivity to canopy gradients in R dark highlights the need for more observations of how leaf traits and fluxes vary along light micro-environments to inform critical dynamics in LSMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

New observational facts about particle acceleration and transport during solar flares

Extensive hard X-ray (HXR)/gamma-ray (GR) observations of solar flares, performed during solar cycles 21 and 22 have led to important new discoveries. These data, combined with observations obtained in other parts of the electromagnetic spectrum (soft X-ray, Hard X-ray, optical, and radio) largley contributed to get a better understanding and to develop new ideas on particle acceleration and transport during solar flares. This review presents new observational facts relevant to hard X-ray/gamma-ray producing flares. Among these are the frequent presence of sub-second time structure in the hard X-ray emission, the variability in hard X-ray and radio spatial distributions during a flare and from flare to flare, the evidence for strong gamma-ray line emission from the Corona and the existence of extended phases of the gamma-ray emission lasting for several hours after the flare onset. This ensemble of observations indicates that particle acceleration takes place at different sites in a complex and dynamic magnetic field environment.

Trottel, G.↗

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins". LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling be enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation, who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs.LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature.Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation.Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeorological modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Energetic Consistency and Coupling of the Mean and Covariance Dynamics

The dynamical state of the ocean and atmosphere is taken to be a large dimensional random vector in a range of large-scale computational applications, including data assimilation, ensemble prediction, sensitivity analysis, and predictability studies. In each of these applications, numerical evolution of the covariance matrix of the random state plays a central role, because this matrix is used to quantify uncertainty in the state of the dynamical system. Since atmospheric and ocean dynamics are nonlinear, there is no closed evolution equation for the covariance matrix, nor for the mean state. Therefore approximate evolution equations must be used. This article studies theoretical properties of the evolution equations for the mean state and covariance matrix that arise in the second-moment closure approximation (third- and higher-order moment discard). This approximation was introduced by EPSTEIN [1969] in an early effort to introduce a stochastic element into deterministic weather forecasting, and was studied further by FLEMING [1971a,b], EPSTEIN and PITCHER [1972], and PITCHER [1977], also in the context of atmospheric predictability. It has since fallen into disuse, with a simpler one being used in current large-scale applications. The theoretical results of this article make a case that this approximation should be reconsidered for use in large-scale applications, however, because the second moment closure equations possess a property of energetic consistency that the approximate equations now in common use do not possess. A number of properties of solutions of the second-moment closure equations that result from this energetic consistency will be established.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

Adapted Cell Design for the Operando X‑Ray Absorption Study of a Structurally Evolving Cu Nanoparticle Ensemble during the CO2 Electroconversion to Multicarbon Products

An improved understanding of the materials that will sustain the future of energy production, storage, and delivery calls for better characterization tools. Operando characterization methods have thus become essential for investigating electrocatalytic materials. Without their resulting insights, the study of highly performing catalysts post-mortem cannot viably facilitate the further development of functional catalysts. Herein, we present an operando electrochemical cell designed for hard X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and specifically adapted to the study of an electrocatalytically active Cu nanoparticle ensemble. So far, this nanocatalyst has proven to pose quite a challenge to characterize due to its unique structural dynamics. Adopting a design comparable to the H-cell employed for all activity testing, we report the satisfactory translation of the active site formation into an XAS-compatible cell. The simultaneous collection of CO2-derived products during XAS characterization enabled the operando characterization of this CO2-reducing active structure. We report a Cu–Cu coordination number of the first scattering path higher than suggested in our previous studies, highlighting the importance of monitoring metastable nanoelectrocatalysts in operando. This study illustrates important caveats for the electrocatalysis community when considering the application of operando XAS. Our results highlight that the sample size, homogeneity, and stability determine how to interpret the measured signal. Considering these parameters carefully, the operando EXAFS results confirm the exceptional undercoordinated character of the Cu nanoparticle ensemble during CO2 reduction to C2+ products.

Louisia, Sheena↗

Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Hélène Seroussi↗

Finite temperature properties of uranium mononitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising nuclear fuel that combines the advantageous properties of readily used UO 2 and uranium alloys, such as high melting temperature and high uranium density, and thermal conductivity, respectively. A better understanding of UN behavior at operating temperatures can be obtained from finite temperature data, such as elastic properties. To get this information, ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations were performed at five different temperatures using constant volume (NVT) and constant pressure (NPT) ensembles. Initially, the performance of PBE functional in reproducing experimental crystallographic properties and magnetic ordering is assessed. The finite temperature phonon dispersions are calculated using NVT simulation results, which show a softening of the phonon modes with increasing temperature. The NPT results are used to obtain the thermal expansion of UN and finite temperature electronic properties. The calculated thermal expansion is compared with our measurements using neutron diffraction. Additionally, the temperature dependent elastic properties of UN are evaluated using the strain-stress method in AIMD simulations, indicating that UN becomes softer and more compressible with increasing temperature. Also, the calculated Young’s modulus slope is in very good agreement with the experiment. The finite temperature heat capacity and electronic thermal conductivity are calculated from AIMD simulations, which are in better agreement with the experiment than the heat capacity and thermal conductivity calculated using the structures relaxed at 0K. Finally, the thermal diffusivity from AIMD has opposite temperature dependence compared to experimental results, which we argued comes from the underestimated electronic thermal conductivity.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗