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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward equitable environmental exposure modeling through convergence of data, open, and citizen sciences: an example of air pollution exposure modeling amidst increasing wildfire smoke

Exposure modeling is critical in environmental epidemiology and human health but may face challenges (e.g., skewed data, unequal error, context-insensitive validation, and computational demands). Modeling decisions reflect the intended use of the models and the values that modelers prioritize. We aimed to provide a conceptual framework and machine learning (ML) modeling protocols that address these issues. With 500m-gridded hourly PM 2.5 and O 3 levels in Illinois before, during, and after the 2023 Canadian wildfire season as a motivating example, we conducted modeling experiments to evaluate modeling methods, guided by three domains we propose based on theories of science: 1) Data Diversity, leveraging open and citizen science data to enhance inclusivity, parsimony, and representativeness; 2) Equitable Accuracy, ensuring fairly distributed uncertainties across subpopulations; and 3) Sustainable Modeling, balancing accuracy with reducing computational demands to promote accessibility for under-resourced researchers. Here, we found that ML with publicly available data can achieve high accuracy. Depending on methods, performance may vary substantially, even with identical input data. Large but skewed data may reduce performance. Misuse of cross-validation protocols can underestimate prediction error; although we observed R 2 s of ∼98 %, the modeled estimates varied significantly, indicating the need for careful model validation. By using new modeling protocols including representativeness-considered training and validation data and a new loss function, we achieved high agreement between estimates and ground-based measurements (e.g., R 2 = ∼90 % for PM 2.5 ; ∼80 % for O 3 ), equally distributed errors across sociodemographic strata and urban–rural divides, and reduction in computation time—from several weeks or months to a few days.

Exposure assessment↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Interface-PINNs (AdaI-PINNs) for inverse problems: Determining material properties for heterogeneous systems

Here, we determine spatially varying discontinuous material properties using a domain-decomposition based physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) framework named the Adaptive Interface-PINNs or AdaI-PINNs (Roy et al., 2024). We propose the use of distinct neural networks for the field variables and material properties within each material, utilizing adaptive activation functions. While the neural networks across different materials share the same weights and biases, their activation functions are uniquely tailored using a hyperparameter that influences the slope of the activation function. The proposed framework is tested on several one-dimensional and two-dimensional benchmark examples, and its performance is compared with conventional PINNs and existing domain-decomposition PINNs frameworks, namely, the Multi-domain physics-informed neural network (M-PINN), and the eXtended physics-informed neural networks (XPINNs). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can determine randomly distributed discontinuous material properties with an L 2 error of $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -3 ) for the material property and the root-mean-square error of $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -3 ) for the primary variable while the other approaches yield errors that are approximately two orders of magnitude larger (that is, $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -1 )). Moreover, the spatial distribution of material properties obtained using the proposed framework is in close agreement with the true distribution, whereas the other approaches fare much worse. Additionally, the proposed approach is approximately 40% faster than its competitors, indicating its potential as a robust alternative for solving inverse problems in heterogeneous materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensuring Σ s Y s = 1 in transport of species mass fractions

When transporting species mass fractions in reacting flow simulations, there are physical constraints that must be met. Unfortunately, nonlinear transport schemes such as weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) schemes do not ensure that the sum of mass fractions equals 1. In detonation simulations, errors in the sum of mass fractions are observed to worsen over time when the standard WENO scheme is used. To prevent this, typically one species is forced to absorb all or most of the error in the sum of mass fractions. Here, this work presents an alternative method for correcting the WENO-interpolated mass fractions such that inert species do not change. The method is demonstrated for both argon and nitrogen-diluted hydrogen detonations in one dimension. Using the modified WENO interpolations, the error in the sum is reduced significantly. In addition, the new approach is better able to capture the physical instability expected for nitrogen-diluted detonations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Manufactured solutions for an electromagnetic slot model

The accurate modeling of electromagnetic penetration is an important topic in computational electromagnetics. Electromagnetic penetration occurs through intentional or inadvertent openings in an otherwise closed electromagnetic scatterer, which prevent the contents from being fully shielded from external fields. To efficiently model electromagnetic penetration, aperture or slot models can be used with surface integral equations to solve Maxwell's equations. A necessary step towards establishing the credibility of these models is to assess the correctness of the implementation of the underlying numerical methods through code verification. Surface integral equations and slot models yield multiple interacting sources of numerical error and other challenges, which render traditional code-verification approaches ineffective. In this paper, we provide approaches to separately measure the numerical errors arising from these different error sources for the method-of-moments implementation of the electric-field integral equation with a slot model. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches for a variety of cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simplified calculation of the area specific impedance for solid-state battery design

Simplified algebraic area specific impedance (ASI) correlations have been developed for solid-state composite battery electrodes made of a single ion conducting electrolyte, conductive additive, and intercalation active material. Two ASI expressions were developed, one for short times ( i.e. , pulsed power operation) and another for the pseudo steady state operation (i.e., sustained discharge for energy estimation). A full electrochemical model based on porous electrode theory was developed to examine the accuracy of the simplified ASI expressions. The simplified expressions agree favorably with full model results over a wide range of parameters (i.e. , electrode thicknesses, electrolyte conductivities, solid-state diffusion coefficients, specific surface areas, etc.) and conditions (i.e. , C-rates, states of charge, and pulse times). Under most conditions, the error between the full model and the correlations is well below 7 %. Higher errors were observed for the pseudo steady state expression at high/ low states of charge where the assumption of uniform reaction distributions loses validity. Here, the short time ASI has higher error at low states of charge due to the nonlinearity of the open circuit voltage equation, which is assumed linear in the formulation of the simplified algebraic expression.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning framework for predicting uranium enrichments from M400 CZT gamma spectra

A machine learning framework was developed for predicting uranium enrichments from M400 CZT gamma spectra. This framework leverages the availability of a large amount of measured M400 gamma spectra and uses a recently updated version of Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) for gamma spectrum analysis and generation. It also leverages the existing machine learning modules in Python for gamma spectrum data processing, curation, model training, benchmarking, and optimization of the deep machine learning models. The framework is used to develop a deep learning model to analyze gamma spectra from a set of U 3 O 8 samples with enrichments ranging from 0.31 to 93.17% and UF 6 cylinders with enrichments ranging from 0.2 to 4.95%, and the model performance is tested using a set of measured spectra and the respective declared enrichment values. Results show that the model can correctly classify 99.35% of the U 3 O 8 sample enrichments, and can predict the samples’ enrichments within an average absolute error of 0.099% (in percentage points of enrichment). For the UF 6 cylinders, the average absolute error was approximately 0.03%, with an accuracy of 98% in classifying discrete enrichment values of UF 6 samples. Finally, the results also show that the model has performed significantly better in terms of predicting enrichments in UF 6 cylinders based on measured gamma spectra than the GEM code, with a standard deviation (of the relative errors) of 2.23% (compared with the 11.51% value for the GEM code) based on results from a set of test data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

A simulation study of the ability to detect power distribution perturbations in the texas A&M TRIGA reactor with self-powered neutron detectors

Given the variety of ways that nuclear reactor core power may be perturbed, reactor operators and developers are keen on understanding the accuracy and convergence time during which perturbations in reactor power distribution may be synthesized (i.e., inferred) from an array of in-core radiation detectors. A simulation study was conducted as described herein using a highly detailed model of the Texas A&M Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor, in which an array of self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs) was considered for input to the power synthesis methodology. The core power synthesis is conducted using a point-based iterative method with an iterative loop built in to ensure working equation consistency. The forward problem of SPND response to simulated perturbations in reactor power was solved for Gaussian peak-type perturbations in the reactor power distribution. These perturbations varied in variance, amplitude, and core location to assess their impact on synthesis error and to determine the number of iterations required for convergence. A relation between the unique resolvability limit and perturbation width was identified such that the maximum synthesis error increased rapidly when the peak width went beneath this limit (a width approximating half the reactor’s fuel pin-to-pin pitch); this resolvability limit is specific to the SPND configuration and fuel segmentation considered herein. The synthesis error increased linearly with perturbation peak amplitude, whereas the convergence time increased nonlinearly. Perturbations located closer to the center of the core were synthesized more accurately, albeit with a higher number of required iterations. These findings provide a qualitative and quantitative understanding of the accuracy and speed at which different types of spatial power perturbations can be resolved in light-water reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Worldwide benchmarking of cost-effective radiometers for direct and diffuse irradiance

Solar energy projects can benefit from direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) measurements during all project phases. Several commercial measurement systems for DNI and DHI are available. Sun trackers with pyranometers and pyrheliometers can provide highly accurate measurements but are often impractical in solar energy applications. For less expensive and more robust sensors, it is often unclear which accuracy can be expected under a project site's specific atmospheric conditions. We address this challenge through our dedicated experimental comparison of relevant sensor systems (rotating shadowband irradiometer [short RSI], Delta-T SPN1, EKO MS-90, PyranoCam, Sunto CaptPro, Kipp & Zonen CSD3) at up to six sites worldwide. The RSI systems (rRMSD 3 to 8.6%, DNI; 4.8 to 7.6%, DHI) and PyranoCam (rRMSD 2.6 to 5.2%, DNI; 4.4 to 5.8%, DHI) exhibit similar error metrics and are the most accurate systems in the test. Delta-T SPN1 and EKO MS-90 (rRMSD 6.8 to 15%, DNI; 10.6 to 20.1%, DHI) but especially Kipp & Zonen CSD3 and Sunto CaptPro show significant deviations (rRMSD 17.7 to 20%, DNI; 33 to 58%, DHI). We evaluate the influence of relevant atmospheric parameters on the sensors' accuracies by a rather unique measurement setup. MS-90's DNI errors depend on DNI itself, with overestimations for low reference DNI. The deviations of SPN1's DHI and DNI measurements increase sharply in situations with high circumsolar irradiance. Also CaptPro and CSD3's increased measurement errors are related to circumsolar irradiance. For RSI and PyranoCam, only moderate influences on the measurements are identified, indicating a general applicability of these instruments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of dynamics, entanglement and Markovian noise on the fidelity of few-qubit digital quantum simulation

Quantum algorithms have been proposed to accelerate the simulation of the chaotic dynamical systems that are ubiquitous in the physics of plasmas. Quantum computers without error correction might even use noise to their advantage to calculate the Lyapunov exponent by measuring the Loschmidt echo fidelity decay rate. For the first time, digital Hamiltonian simulations of the quantum sawtooth map, performed on the IBM-Q quantum hardware platform, show that the fidelity decay rate of a digital quantum simulation increases during the transition from dynamical localization to chaotic diffusion in the map. The observed error per CNOT gate increases by $1.5{\times }$ as the dynamics varies from localized to diffusive, while only changing the phases of virtual RZ gates and keeping the overall gate count constant. A gate-based Lindblad noise model that captures the effective change in relaxation and dephasing errors during gate operation qualitatively explains the effect of dynamics on fidelity as being due to the localization and entanglement of the states created. Specifically, highly delocalized states that are entangled with random phases show an increased sensitivity to dephasing and, on average, a similar sensitivity to relaxation as localized states. In contrast, delocalized unentangled states show an increased sensitivity to dephasing but a lower sensitivity to relaxation. This gate-based Lindblad model is shown to be a useful benchmarking tool by estimating the effective Lindblad coherence times during CNOT gates and finding a consistent $2\unicode{x2013}3{\times }$ shorter $T_2$ time than reported for idle qubits. Thus, the interplay of the dynamics of a simulation with the noise processes that are active can strongly influence the overall fidelity decay rate.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

“Best” Iterative Coupled-Cluster Triples Model? More Evidence for 3CC

To follow up on the unexpectedly good performance of several coupled-cluster models with approximate inclusion of 3-body clusters we performed a more complete assessment of the 3CC method for accurate computational thermochemistry in the standard HEAT framework. New spin-integrated implementation of the 3CC method applicable to closed- and open-shell systems utilizes a new automated toolchain for derivation, optimization, and evaluation of operator algebra in many-body electronic structure. We found that with a double-ζ basis set the 3CC correlation energies and their atomization energy contributions are almost always more accurate (with respect to the CCSDTQ reference) than the CCSDT model as well as the standard CCSD(T) model. The mean absolute errors in cc-pVDZ {3CC, CCSDT, and CCSD(T)} electronic (per valence electron) and atomization energies relative to the CCSDTQ reference for the HEAT data set, were {24, 70, 122} μE h /e and {0.46, 2.00, 2.58} kJ/mol, respectively. The mean absolute errors in the complete-basis-set limit {3CC, CCSDT, and CCSD(T)} atomization energies relative to the HEAT model reference, were {0.52, 2.00, and 1.07} kJ/mol, The significant and systematic reduction of the error by the 3CC method and its lower cost than CCSDT suggests it as a viable candidate for post- CCSD(T) thermochemistry applications, as well as the preferred alternative to CCSDT in general.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO 2 and CH 4 emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO 2 exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH 4 module also explained the majority of variance in CH 4 emissions in validation sites ( R 2 = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on R eco , (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH 4 emissions, and (d) CH 4 responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-fidelity remote entanglement of trapped atoms mediated by time-bin photons

Abstract Photonic interconnects between quantum processing nodes are likely the only way to achieve large-scale quantum computers and networks. The bottleneck in such an architecture is the interface between well-isolated quantum memories and flying photons. We establish high-fidelity entanglement between remotely separated trapped atomic qubit memories, mediated by photonic qubits stored in the timing of their pulses. Such time-bin encoding removes sensitivity to polarization errors, enables long-distance quantum communication, and is extensible to quantum memories with more than two states. Using a measurement-based error detection process and suppressing a fundamental source of error due to atomic recoil, we achieve an entanglement fidelity of 97% and show that fundamental limits due to atomic recoil still allow fidelities in excess of 99.9%.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification for misspecified machine learned interatomic potentials

The use of high-dimensional regression techniques from machine learning has significantly improved the quantitative accuracy of interatomic potentials. Atomic simulations can now plausibly target quantitative predictions in a variety of settings, which has brought renewed interest in robust means to quantify uncertainties. In many practical settings where model complexity is constrained (e.g., due to performance considerations), misspecification — the inability of any one choice of model parameters to exactly match all training data — is a key contributor to errors that is often disregarded. Here, we employ a recent misspecification-aware regression technique to quantify parameter uncertainties, which is then propagated to a broad range of phase and defect properties in tungsten. The propagation is performed through both brute-force resampling and implicit Taylor expansion. The propagated misspecification uncertainties robustly quantify and bound errors on a broad range of material properties. We demonstrate application to recent foundational machine learning interatomic potentials, accurately predicting and bounding errors in MACE-MPA-0 energy predictions across the diverse materials project database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A fault-tolerant neutral-atom architecture for universal quantum computation

Quantum error correction (QEC) is essential for the realization of large-scale quantum computers. However, owing to the complexity of operating on the encoded ‘logical’ qubits, understanding the physical principles for building fault-tolerant quantum devices and combining them into efficient architectures is an outstanding scientific challenge. Here we use reconfigurable arrays of up to 448 neutral atoms to implement the key elements of a universal, fault-tolerant quantum processing architecture and experimentally explore their underlying working mechanisms. We first use surface codes to study how repeated QEC suppresses errors, demonstrating 2.14(13)x below-threshold performance in a four-round characterization circuit by leveraging atom loss detection and machine learning decoding. We then investigate logical entanglement using transversal gates and lattice surgery and extend it to universal logic through transversal teleportation with three-dimensional [[15,1,3]] codes, enabling arbitrary-angle synthesis with polylogarithmic overhead. Finally, we develop mid-circuit qubit reuse16, increasing experimental cycle rates by two orders of magnitude and enabling deep-circuit protocols with dozens of logical qubits and hundreds of logical teleportations with [[7,1,3]] and high-rate [[16,6,4]] codes while maintaining constant internal entropy. Our experiments show key principles for efficient architecture design, involving the interplay between quantum logic and entropy removal, judiciously using physical entanglement in logic gates and magic state generation, and leveraging teleportations for universality and physical qubit reset. These results establish foundations for scalable, universal error-corrected processing and its practical implementation in neutral atom systems.

atomic and molecular physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

A scalable superconducting nanowire memory array with row–column addressing

Scalable superconducting memory is required for the development of low-energy superconducting computers and fault-tolerant quantum computers. Conventional superconducting logic-based memory cells possess a large footprint that limits scaling; nanowire-based superconducting memory cells, although more compact, have high error rates, which hinders integration into large arrays. Here we report a 4 × 4 superconducting nanowire memory array that is designed for scalable row–column operations and has a functional density of 2.6 Mbit cm −2 . Each memory cell is based on a nanowire loop consisting of two temperature-dependent superconducting switches and a variable kinetic inductor. The arrays operate at 1.3 K, where we implement and characterize multiflux quanta state storage and destructive read-out. By optimizing the write- and read-pulse sequences, we minimize bit errors and maximize operating margins. We achieve a minimum bit error rate of 10 −5 . Here, we also use circuit-level simulations to understand the memory cell’s dynamics, performance limits and stability under varying pulse amplitudes.

Electrical and electronic engineering↗