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At least 379 records · Page 21

Statistical and computational uncertainties in atmospheric profiles from radio occultation - Mariner 10 at Venus

Statistical error in Mariner 10 occultation profiles is traced from initial observations to reduced temperature, pressure, and absorption profiles. It is shown that for the Mariner 10 profile with a height of resolution of 0.1 km, statistical measurement errors lead to uncertainties in temperature that are less than 2 K at all altitudes considered and are typically less than 0.5 K. Attention is also given to uncertainties in pressure and atmospheric absorption. In addition it is found that there is also a systematic error in the reduction of two-way data that arises from the parallax between the uplink and downlink ray paths. Finally, it is concluded that if the systematic error can be reduced to the level of the statistical noise in Mariner 10, then long term studies of thick atmospheres by occultation techniques will be feasible in the future at good levels of accuracy.

Lipa, B.↗

Classification of Dissolution Events Using Fusion of Effluents Measurements and Classifiers

Classifiers for dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility are studied using gamma spectra measurements of effluents collected by a high purity germanium detector located at its off-gas stack. Data sets collected at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Radiochemical Engineering Development Center under a Pu dissolution campaign spanning a three months period are utilized. Features corresponding to the activity levels of 15 radionuclides, including isotopes of iodine, krypton, and xenon, that are indicated by the target decay chains, are computed from the spectra at 1 hour intervals. A conceptualization diagram is developed to reflect the steps from the source to measurement to feature computation that depend on fission products indicated by decay chains, chemical processing, and effluents transport to the off-gas stack. A diverse set of eight classifiers based on different design principles are trained using the ground truth data for this campaign, and the outputs of top three classifiers, namely, classification trees, Ensemble of Trees (EOT), and k-nearest neighbor, are combined using EOT classifier-fuser. Our results show that for 5-fold cross validation, features associated with isotopes of xenon provide the lowest classification error among the different elements across the classifiers; the classification error is furthered improved when all 15 isotope features are used by each classifier, and it is again improved by the fusion of three classifiers. Further reduction in classification error is achieved by using a measurement window of 1-2 days which is identified based on half-life time estimates of the isotopes; it is long enough for the stabilization of feature estimates while being short enough not to be affected by the follow on dissolution events. As a net result of feature and classifier fusion, combined with the incorporation of decay chain and isotope half-life information, this approach achieves 98% detection rate while maintaining a false alarm rate under 2% for this data set.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman-Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

An emerging approach in the field of aircraft engine controls and system health management is the inclusion of real-time, onboard models for the inflight estimation of engine performance variations. This technology, typically based on Kalman-filter concepts, enables the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters that can be directly utilized by controls, prognostics, and health-management applications. A challenge that complicates this practice is the fact that an aircraft engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. Through Kalman-filter-based estimation techniques, the level of engine performance degradation can be estimated, given that there are at least as many sensors as health parameters to be estimated. However, in an aircraft engine, the number of sensors available is typically less than the number of health parameters, presenting an under-determined estimation problem. A common approach to address this shortcoming is to estimate a subset of the health parameters, referred to as model tuning parameters. The problem/objective is to optimally select the model tuning parameters to minimize Kalman-filterbased estimation error. A tuner selection technique has been developed that specifically addresses the under-determined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine that seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error of the Kalman filter. This approach can significantly reduce the error in onboard aircraft engine parameter estimation applications such as model-based diagnostic, controls, and life usage calculations. The advantage of the innovation is the significant reduction in estimation errors that it can provide relative to the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the model tuning parameter vector. Because this technique needs only to be performed during the system design process, it places no additional computation burden on the onboard Kalman filter implementation. The technique has been developed for aircraft engine onboard estimation applications, as this application typically presents an under-determined estimation problem. However, this generic technique could be applied to other industries using gas turbine engine technology.

Simon, Donald L.↗

A New Approach to Overcoming Spatial Aliasing in Structural Damage Detection

Aircraft, reusable launch vehicles,unmanned aircraft, and other advanced structures are being built using lightweight composite materials/metals with design safety factors as low as 1.25. These advanced structures operate in uncertain and severe environments and are susceptible to damage such as delamination, fiber/matrix damage, hydrothermal strain in composite materials, and fatigue and cracking in metals. To ensure human safety and load-bearing integrity these structures must be inspected to detect and locate often invisible damage and faults before they become catastrophic. Conventional methods of non-destructive evaluation sometimes miss significant damage and are time consuming and expensive to perform. In contrast, vibrometry or vibration signature techniques are a global method of structural integrity monitoring that potentially can efficiently detect damage on large structures, including damage that is away from sensor locations, and in the interior of structures. However, a barrier problem in damage detection using vibration measurements is the need to measure the vibration response at a large number of points on the structure. Typically, model reduction or expansion procedures such as Guyan reduction or dynamic expansion are attempted to overcome the problem of insufficient measurements or spatial aliasing. These approaches depend on using information from the healthy model, and thus put error into the reduction used to represent the damaged structure. In this paper, a Frequency Response Function technique is used to detect damage to a fixed-free beam. The technique uses measured frequency response functions from the healthy structure as reference data, and then monitors vibration measurements during the life of the structure to detect damage. In an analytical simulation using a finite-element model of a beam, damage was located using only sparse measurements because the technique uses both rotation and translation measurements from the damaged structure.

Schulz, Mark J.↗

New plant and controller order reduction results with weighted balancing

A frequency-response error analysis for frequency-weighted internally balanced (FWIB) truncation is extended and an exact error bound for a case of order reduction by one state is presented. An approximate error bound for a general case of order reduction by more than one state, assuming that only small controllability-observability measures are truncated, is considered. FWIB residualization is presented, and it is shown that a frequency-response error analysis yields results similar to those found for FWIB truncation. It is concluded that FWIB truncation and residualization can be used in a coordinated manner consistent with classical truncation and residualization in order to obtain accuracy higher than that possible from either technique used alone.

Newman, Brett↗

“Best” Iterative Coupled-Cluster Triples Model? More Evidence for 3CC

To follow up on the unexpectedly good performance of several coupled-cluster models with approximate inclusion of 3-body clusters we performed a more complete assessment of the 3CC method for accurate computational thermochemistry in the standard HEAT framework. New spin-integrated implementation of the 3CC method applicable to closed- and open-shell systems utilizes a new automated toolchain for derivation, optimization, and evaluation of operator algebra in many-body electronic structure. We found that with a double-ζ basis set the 3CC correlation energies and their atomization energy contributions are almost always more accurate (with respect to the CCSDTQ reference) than the CCSDT model as well as the standard CCSD(T) model. The mean absolute errors in cc-pVDZ {3CC, CCSDT, and CCSD(T)} electronic (per valence electron) and atomization energies relative to the CCSDTQ reference for the HEAT data set, were {24, 70, 122} μE h /e and {0.46, 2.00, 2.58} kJ/mol, respectively. The mean absolute errors in the complete-basis-set limit {3CC, CCSDT, and CCSD(T)} atomization energies relative to the HEAT model reference, were {0.52, 2.00, and 1.07} kJ/mol, The significant and systematic reduction of the error by the 3CC method and its lower cost than CCSDT suggests it as a viable candidate for post- CCSD(T) thermochemistry applications, as well as the preferred alternative to CCSDT in general.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Single-event upset (SEU) in a DRAM with on-chip error correction

Results are given of SEU measurements on 256K dynamic RAMs with on-chip error correction. They are claimed to be the first ever reported. A (12/8) Hamming error-correcting code was incorporated in the layout. Physical separation of the bits in each code word was used to guard against multiple bits being disrupted in any given word. Significant reduction in observed errors is reported.

Zoutendyk, J. A.↗

Three Decades of Precision Orbit Determination Progress, Achievements, Future Challenges and its Vital Contribution to Oceanography and Climate Research

Although satellite altimetry has been around for thirty years, the last fifteen beginning with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) have yielded an abundance of significant results including: monitoring of ENS0 events, detection of internal tides, determination of accurate global tides, unambiguous delineation of Rossby waves and their propagation characteristics, accurate determination of geostrophic currents, and a multi-decadal time series of mean sea level trend and dynamic ocean topography variability. While the high level of accuracy being achieved is a result of both instrument maturity and the quality of models and correction algorithms applied to the data, improving the quality of the Climate Data Records produced from altimetry is highly dependent on concurrent progress being made in fields such as orbit determination. The precision orbits form the reference frame from which the radar altimeter observations are made. Therefore, the accuracy of the altimetric mapping is limited to a great extent by the accuracy to which a satellite orbit can be computed. The TP mission represents the first time that the radial component of an altimeter orbit was routinely computed with an accuracy of 2-cm. Recently it has been demonstrated that it is possible to compute the radial component of Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm. Additionally, still further improvements in TP orbits are being achieved with new techniques and algorithms largely developed from combined Jason and TP data analysis. While these recent POD achievements are impressive, the new accuracies are now revealing subtle systematic orbit error that manifest as both intra and inter annual ocean topography errors. Additionally the construction of inter-decadal time series of climate data records requires the removal of systematic differences across multiple missions. Current and future efforts must focus on the understanding and reduction of these errors in order to generate a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits across multiple missions and decades required for the most stringent climate-related research. This presentation discusses the POD progress and achievements made over nearly three decades, and presents the future challenges, goals and their impact on altimetric derived ocean sciences.

Luthcke, Scott↗

Using the GEOS 5 Nature Run to Simulate 2053 nm Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar Observations

Wind observations are a critical part of the current global observation system used for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Wind lidars have been cited as precise instruments that can provide 3-dimensional wind measurements. Several studies have conducted observing system experiments (OSEs) with existing lidar observations or observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with simulated lidar observations highlighting the benefits of wind lidar measurements to NWP. Previous studies using simulated lidar observations have typically tied aerosol optical properties to functions of relative humidity instead of to aerosol properties. A methodology is presented for simulating wind measurements from a novel 2053 nm lidar using aerosol properties derived using the GEOS-5 Nature Run, along with estimating winds derived from cloud information. Some assumptions regarding aerosol scattering and the distribution of clouds are explored, along with the role of observation weighting, and implications for representativeness error. Results from a preliminary OSSE are presented highlighting the importance of assumptions used to derive data from cloud returns and aerosol scattering. While a longer duration study is required, results show a general reduction in analysis error when lidar measurements are ingested.

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗

Using the GEOS 5 Nature Run to Simulate 2053 nm Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar Observations

Wind observations are a critical part of the current global observation system used for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Wind lidars have been cited as precise instruments that can provide 3-dimensional wind measurements. Several studies have conducted observing system experiments (OSEs) with existing lidar observations or observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with simulated lidar observations highlighting the benefits of wind lidar measurements to NWP. Previous studies using simulated lidar observations have typically tied aerosol optical properties to functions of relative humidity instead of to aerosol properties. A methodology is presented for simulating wind measurements from a novel 2053 nm lidar using aerosol properties derived using the GEOS-5 Nature Run, along with estimating winds derived from cloud information. Some assumptions regarding aerosol scattering and the distribution of clouds are explored, along with the role of observation weighting, and implications for representativeness error. Results from a preliminary OSSE are presented highlighting the importance of assumptions used to derive data from cloud returns and aerosol scattering. While a longer duration study is required, results show a general reduction in analysis error when lidar measurements are ingested.

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗

Area detector corrections for high quality synchrotron X-ray structure factor measurements

Correction procedures for obtaining accurate X-ray structure factors from large area detectors are considered, including subpanel effects, over excited pixels and careful intensity corrections. Problems associated with data normalization, the use of a pixel response correction from a glass standard and minimization of systematic errors are also discussed. Data from glassy GeSe{sub 2} and liquid water measured with a Perkin Elmer amorphous-Silicon detector are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of these correction procedures. This requires reduction of systematic errors in the measured intensity to around the 0.1% level.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A three-dimensional sectional representation of aerosol mixing state for simulating optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei

Light absorption by black carbon (BC) particles emitted from fossil fuel combustion depends on the how thickly they are coated with non-refractory species such as ammonium, sulfate, nitrate, organics, and water. The cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation property of a particle depends on its dry size and the hygroscopicities of all the individual species mixed together. It is therefore necessary to represent both size and mixing state of aerosols to reliably predict their climate-relevant properties in atmospheric models. Here we describe and evaluate a novel sectional framework in the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry, referred to as MOSAIC-mix, that represents the mixing state by resolving aerosol dry size (D dry ), BC dry mass fraction (w BC ), and hygroscopicity (κ). Using ten idealized urban plume scenarios in which different types of aerosols evolve over 24 hours under a range of atmospherically relevant environmental conditions, we examine errors in CCN concentrations and optical properties with respect to a more explicit aerosol mixing state representation. We find that only a small number of w BC and κ bins are needed to achieve significant reductions in the errors, and propose a configuration consisting of 24 D dry bins, 2 w BC bins, and 2 κ bins that gives 24-hour average errors of about 5% or less in CCN concentrations and optical properties, 3-4 times lower than those from size-only-resolved simulations. Here, these results show that MOSAIC-mix is suitable for use in regional and global models to examine the effects of evolving aerosol mixing states on aerosol-radiation-cloud feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Human Behavior and Decision Errors in Security Screening Operations

The potential for human errors in conducting security related screening operations can lead to inadvertent and adverse decision outcomes. This paper overviews an initial mathematical framework designed to model and quantify the various human factors and decision outcomes that may occur in conducting security screening operations, such as U.S. port of entry radiological and nuclear (rad/nuc) security screening. This framework is based on the Human Error Assessment and Reduction (HEART) technique. As applied here, the framework incorporates a set of rules for human engagement, including a prescribed concept of operations (CONOPS) and deviations that may occur from this established CONOPS due to inadvertent personnel decision errors. We also review some of the various factors that may adversely influence such decisions by security screening personnel. Some of these factors include current workload, environmental conditions, training, and various other intangible factors. Using the HEART methodology, we translate each of these factors into error producing conditions, their effects on error, an assessed proportion of effects, and finally the overall probability of human error at each stage of the screening process. We then include a small scale example to demonstrate the methodology and results based on an assumed set of input conditions at a notional port of entry.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

Tilted lidar profiling: Development and testing of a novel scanning strategy for inhomogeneous flows

The most common profiling techniques for the atmospheric boundary layer based on a monostatic Doppler wind lidar rely on the assumption of horizontal homogeneity of the flow. This assumption breaks down in the presence of either natural or human-made obstructions that can generate significant flow distortions. The need to deploy ground-based lidars near operating wind turbines for the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) spurred a search for novel profiling techniques that could avoid the influence of the flow modifications caused by the wind farms. With this goal in mind, two well-established profiling scanning strategies have been retrofitted to scan in a tilted fashion and steer the beams away from the more severely inhomogeneous region of the flow. Results from a field test at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 135-m meteorological tower show that the accuracy of the horizontal mean flow reconstruction is insensitive to the tilt of the scan, although higher-order wind statistics are severely deteriorated at extreme tilts mainly due to geometrical error amplification. A numerical study of the AWAKEN domain based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and large-eddy simulation are also conducted to test the effectiveness of tilted profiling. It is shown that a threefold reduction of the error on inflow mean wind speed can be achieved for a lidar placed at the base of the turbine using tilted profiling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Toward the fabrication of a 5 μm resolution Wolter microscope for the National Ignition Facility

Advancements in computer-controlled polishing, metrology, and replication have led to a x-ray mirror fabrication process that is capable of producing high-resolution Wolter microscopes. The mirror is a nickel-cobalt replicated full-shell mirror that was electroformed from a finely figured and polished mandrel. This mandrel was designed and fabricated for a 8 m source-to-detector distance microscope, with 10× magnification. A computer controlled polishing process corrected the low-frequency mandrel figure to < 2.0 nm RMS error. The mandrel design was optimized to reduce shell distortions that occur mainly < 20 mm from the shell ends. This design, in combination with improved replication tooling design and refined bath parameters informed by a detailed COMSOL model, have led to reductions in replication errors in the mirror shell. X-ray tests performed on a pair of mirror shells replicated from the mandrel have demonstrated < 10 μm FWHM source plane imaging resolution. Here we discuss the development process, highlight results from metrology and x-ray testing, and define a path for achieving 5 μm FWHM resolution.

Grazing Incidence, Wolter Microscope, X-ray Optics↗

UBV photometry of Mars

A critical analysis of selected high-quality photometric observations of Mars indicates that: (1) the phase function is concave upward out to at least 40-deg phase. No sudden brightening occurs at opposition, but the curvature increases at small phase; (2) large systematic differences (0.1-0.2 mag.) exist between different observers' data. However, the small random scatter attributable to Mars (0.01-0.02 mag.) in the better series suggests that these differences represent systematic errors in data reduction, not variations in the planet's brightness; (3) the disentangling of seasonal, diurnal, and phase effects leaves considerable ambiguity; more observations are needed, over a long time, with a stable instrumental system. However, even the present data are sufficient to expose substantial errors in published phase curves of Mars (and consequently, in interpretations based on them).

Young, A. T.↗

SU-E-T-333: Dosimetric Impact of Rotational Error On the Target Coverage in IMPT Lung Cancer Plans

Purpose: The main purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of rotational (yaw, roll, and pitch) error on the planning target volume (PTV) coverage in lung cancer plans generated by intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT). Methods: In this retrospective study, computed tomography (CT) dataset of previously treated lung case was used. IMPT plan were generated on the original CT dataset using left-lateral (LL) and posterior-anterior (PA) beams for a total dose of 74 Gy[RBE] with 2 Gy[RBE] per fraction. In order to investigate the dosimetric impact of rotational error, 12 new CT datasets were generated by re-sampling the original CT dataset for rotational (roll, yaw, and pitch) angles ranged from −5° to +5°, with an increment of 2.5°. A total of 12 new IMPT plans were generated based on the re-sampled CT datasets using beam parameters identical to the ones in the original IMPT plan. All treatment plans were generated in XiO treatment planning system. The PTV coverage (i.e., dose received by 95% of the PTV volume, D95) in new IMPT plans were then compared with the PTV coverage in the original IMPT plan. Results: Rotational errors caused the reduction in the PTV coverage in all 12 new IMPT plans when compared to the original IMPT lung plan. Specifically, the PTV coverage was reduced by 4.94% to 50.51% for yaw, by 4.04% to 23.74% for roll, and by 5.21% to 46.88% for pitch errors. Conclusion: Unacceptable dosimetric results were observed in new IMPT plans as the PTV coverage was reduced by up to 26.87% and 50.51% for rotational error of 2.5° and 5°, respectively. Further investigation is underway in evaluating the PTV coverage loss in the IMPT lung cancer plans for smaller rotational angle change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Adaptive Modeling of the International Space Station Electrical Power System

Software simulations provide NASA engineers the ability to experiment with spacecraft systems in a computer-imitated environment. Engineers currently develop software models that encapsulate spacecraft system behavior. These models can be inaccurate due to invalid assumptions, erroneous operation, or system evolution. Increasing accuracy requires manual calibration and domain-specific knowledge. This thesis presents a method for automatically learning system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques are applied to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). We also explore a knowledge fusion approach that uses traditional engineered EPS models to supplement the learned models. We observed that these engineered EPS models provide useful background knowledge to reduce predictive error spikes when confronted with making predictions in situations that are quite different from the training scenarios used when learning the model. Evaluations using ISS sensor data and existing EPS models demonstrate the success of the adaptive approach. Our experimental results show that adaptive modeling provides reductions in model error anywhere from 80% to 96% over these existing models. Final discussions include impending use of adaptive modeling technology for ISS mission operations and the need for adaptive modeling in future NASA lunar and Martian exploration.

Thomas, Justin Ray↗