Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “errors and uncertainties”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Precise orbit determination for NASA's Earth Observing System using GPS

A precision orbit determination technique for NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is discussed. The technique exploits the redundant geometric information from GPS carrier phase and P-code pseudorange measurements and minimizes the requirements for precision dynamical modeling. Performance estimates for the application of the technique to the orbit geometry planned for the EOS platforms show that decimeter accuracies of orbit position may be obtained. The sensitivity of the predicted orbit uncertainties to model errors for station locations, nongravitational platform accelerations, and earth gravity are presented.

Williams, Bobby G.↗

Planar imaging of OH density distributions in a supersonic combustion tunnel

Images of absolute OH number density were obtained using planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) in a supersonic H2-air combustion tunnel. A tunable KrF excimer laser was used to excite the Q2(11) ro-vibronic line. Calibration of the PLIF images was obtained by referencing the signal measured in the flame to that obtained by the excitation of OH produced by thermal dissociation of H2O in an atmospheric furnace. Measurement errors due to uncertainty in internal furnace atmospheric conditions and image temperature correction are estimated.

Quagliaroli, T. M.↗

Probabilistic simulation of the human factor in structural reliability

A formal approach is described in an attempt to computationally simulate the probable ranges of uncertainties of the human factor in structural probabilistic assessments. A multi-factor interaction equation (MFIE) model has been adopted for this purpose. Human factors such as marital status, professional status, home life, job satisfaction, work load and health, are considered to demonstrate the concept. Parametric studies in conjunction with judgment are used to select reasonable values for the participating factors (primitive variables). Suitability of the MFIE in the subsequently probabilistic sensitivity studies are performed to assess the validity of the whole approach. Results obtained show that the uncertainties for no error range from five to thirty percent for the most optimistic case.

Chamis, C. C.↗

The Sonic Altimeter for Aircraft

Discussed here are results already achieved with sonic altimeters in light of the theoretical possibilities of such instruments. From the information gained in this investigation, a procedure is outlined to determine whether or not a further development program is justified by the value of the sonic altimeter as an aircraft instrument. The information available in the literature is reviewed and condensed into a summary of sonic altimeter developments. Various methods of receiving the echo and timing the interval between the signal and the echo are considered. A theoretical discussion is given of sonic altimeter errors due to uncertainties in timing, variations in sound velocity, aircraft speed, location of the sending and receiving units, and inclinations of the flight path with respect to the ground surface. Plots are included which summarize the results in each case. An analysis is given of the effect of an inclined flight path on the frequency of the echo. A brief study of the acoustical phases of the sonic altimeter problem is carried through. The results of this analysis are used to predict approximately the maximum operating altitudes of a reasonably designed sonic altimeter under very good and very bad conditions. A final comparison is made between the estimated and experimental maximum operating altitudes which shows good agreement where quantitative information is available.

Draper, C S↗

Temporal and spatial mapping of surface albedo and atmospheric dust opacity on Mars

The Mariner 9 and Viking provided abundant evidence that eolian processes are active over much of the surface of Mars. Past studies have demonstrated that variations in regional albedo and wind-streak patterns are indicative of sediment transport through a region, while thermal inertia data (derived from the Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) dataset) are indicative of the degree of surface mantling by dust deposits. The visual and thermal data are therefore diagnostic of whether net erosion or deposition of dust-storm fallout is taking place currently and whether such processes have been active in a region over the long term. These previous investigations, however, have not attempted to correct for the effects of atmospheric dust loading on observations of the martian surface, so quantitative studies of current sediment transport rates have included large errors due to uncertainty in the magnitude of this 'atmospheric component' of the observations. We have developed a radiative transfer model that allows the atmospheric dust opacity to be determined from IRTM thermal observations. Corrections for the effects of atmospheric dust loading on observations of surface albedo can also be modeled. This approach to determining 'dust-corrected surface albedo' incorporates the atmospheric dust opacity, the single-scattering albedo and particle phase function of atmospheric dust, and the bidirectional reflectance of the surface, and it accounts for variable lighting and viewing geometry.

Lee, S. W.↗

Time transfer using geostationary satellites: Implementation of a Kalman filter

Since 1988, various experiments have shown that the TV signals transmitted by direct TV satellites may easily be used to perform time transfers at the level of a few tens of nanoseconds, the main source of error being the uncertainty on the satellite position. We first present the two methods used in our experiment to reduce the effects of the satellite residual motion: the first one consists in estimating the longitude variations of the satellite and then using this information to improve other measurements. This allows reducing the uncertainty to values between 9 and 50 nanoseconds according to the position of the involved stations. In the second method we determine the satellite position by using the data collected by three calibrated stations. Time transfer between each of these stations and a fourth one has been shown to be achievable at the precision level of ten nanoseconds. A new approach based on the use of a Kalman filter is proposed in order to take into account the dynamics of the geostationary satellite. The precisions on orbital elements and clock differences and rates determination given by the first simulated applications of the Kalman filter are presented and compared to those obtained by the other methods.

Meyer, F.↗

Measuring rainwater content by radar using propagation differential phase shift

While radars measure several quantities closely coupled to the rainfall rate, for frequencies less than 15 GHz, estimates of the rainwater content W are traditionally computed from the radar reflectivity factor Z or the rate of attenuation A--quantities only weakly related to W. Consequently, instantaneous point estimates of W using Z and A are often erroneous. A more natural, alternative parameter for estimating W at these frequencies is the specific polarization propagation differential phase shift phi(sub DP), which is a measure of the change in the difference between phases of vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized waves with increasing distance from a radar. It is now well known that W is nearly linearly related to phi(sub DP) divided by (1 - reversed R), where reversed R is the mass-weighted mean axis ratio of the raindrops. Unfortunately, such relations are not widely used in part because measurements of phi(sub DP) are scarce but also because one must determine reversed R. In this work it is shown that this parameter can be estimated using the differential reflectivity (Z(sub H)/Z(sub V) at 3 GHz. An alternative technique is suggested for higher frequencies when the differential reflectivity becomes degraded by attenuation. While theory indicates that it should be possible using phi(sub DP) to estimate W quite accurately, measurement errors increase the uncertainty to +/- 18%-35% depending on reversed R. While far from ideal, it appears that these estimates are likely to be considerably more accurate than those deduced using currently available methods.

Jameson, A. R.↗

The Properties of the local Interstellar Medium and the Interaction of the Stellar Winds of epsilon Indi and lambda Andromedae with the Interstellar Environment

We present new observations of the Ly alpha lines of Epsilon Indi (K5 5) and A Andromedae (G8 4-3 + ?) These data were obtained by the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) on the Hubble Space Telescope. Analysis of the interstellar H 1 and D 1 absorption lines reveals that the velocities and temperatures inferred from the H 1 lines are inconsistent with the parameters inferred from the D 1 lines, unless the H 1 absorption is assumed to be produced by two absorption components. One absorption component is produced by interstellar material. For both lines of sight observed, the velocity of this component is consistent with the velocity predicted by the local flow vector. For the Epsilon Indi data, the large velocity separation between the stellar emission and the interstellar absorption allows us to measure the H 1 column density independent of the shape of the intrinsic stellar Ly alpha profile. This approach permits us to quote an accurate column density and to assess its uncertainty with far more confidence than in previous analyses, for which the errors were dominated by uncertainties in the assumed stellar profiles.

Wood, Brian E.↗

Rate Constant and RRKM Product Study for the Reaction Between CH3 and C2H3 at T = 298K

The total rate constant k1 has been determined at P = 1 Torr nominal pressure (He) and at T = 298 K for the vinyl-methyl cross-radical reaction CH3 + C2H3 yields products. The measurements were performed in a discharge flow system coupled with collision-free sampling to a mass spectrometer operated at low electron energies. Vinyl and methyl radicals were generated by the reactions of F with C2H4 and CH4, respectively. The kinetic studies were performed by monitoring the decay of C2H3 with methyl in excess, 6 < |CH3|(sub 0)/|C2H3|(sub 0) < 21. The overall rate coefficient was determined to be k1(298 K) = (1.02 +/- 0.53)x10(exp -10) cubic cm/molecule/s with the quoted uncertainty representing total errors. Numerical modeling was required to correct for secondary vinyl consumption by reactions such as C2H3 + H and C2H3 + C2H3. The present result for k1 at T = 298 K is compared to two previous studies at high pressure (100-300 Torr He) and to a very recent study at low pressure (0.9-3.7 Torr He). Comparison is also made with the rate constant for the similar reaction CH3 + C2H5 and with a value for k1 estimated by the geometric mean rule employing values for k(CH3 + CH3) and k(C2H3 + C2H3). Qualitative product studies at T = 298 K and 200 K indicated formation of C3H6, C2H2, and C2H5 as products of the combination-stabilization, disproportionation, and combination-decomposition channels, respectively, of the CH3 + C2H3 reaction. We also observed the secondary C4H8 product of the subsequent reaction of C3H5 with excess CH3; this observation provides convincing evidence for the combination-decomposition channel yielding C3H5 + H. RRKM calculations with helium as the deactivator support the present and very recent experimental observations that allylic C-H bond rupture is an important path in the combination reaction. The pressure and temperature dependencies of the branching fractions are also predicted.

Thorn, R. Peyton, Jr.↗

Algorithms for Autonomous GPS Orbit Determination and Formation Flying: Investigation of Initialization Approaches and Orbit Determination for HEO

This report summarizes the efforts to date in processing GPS measurements in High Earth Orbit (HEO) applications by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR). Two specific projects were conducted; initialization of the orbit propagation software, GEODE, using nominal orbital elements for the IMEX orbit, and processing of actual and simulated GPS data from the AMSAT satellite using a Doppler-only batch filter. CCAR has investigated a number of approaches for initialization of the GEODE orbit estimator with little a priori information. This document describes a batch solution approach that uses pseudorange or Doppler measurements collected over an orbital arc to compute an epoch state estimate. The algorithm is based on limited orbital element knowledge from which a coarse estimate of satellite position and velocity can be determined and used to initialize GEODE. This algorithm assumes knowledge of nominal orbital elements, (a, e, i, omega, omega) and uses a search on time of perigee passage (tau(sub p)) to estimate the host satellite position within the orbit and the approximate receiver clock bias. Results of the method are shown for a simulation including large orbital uncertainties and measurement errors. In addition, CCAR has attempted to process GPS data from the AMSAT satellite to obtain an initial estimation of the orbit. Limited GPS data have been received to date, with few satellites tracked and no computed point solutions. Unknown variables in the received data have made computations of a precise orbit using the recovered pseudorange difficult. This document describes the Doppler-only batch approach used to compute the AMSAT orbit. Both actual flight data from AMSAT, and simulated data generated using the Satellite Tool Kit and Goddard Space Flight Center's Flight Simulator, were processed. Results for each case and conclusion are presented.

Axelrad, Penina↗

Overview of Intelligent Systems and Operations Development

To achieve NASA's ambitious mission objectives for the future, aircraft and spacecraft will need intelligence to take the correct action in a variety of circumstances. Vehicle intelligence can be defined as the ability to "do the right thing" when faced with a complex decision-making situation. It will be necessary to implement integrated autonomous operations and low-level adaptive flight control technologies to direct actions that enhance the safety and success of complex missions despite component failures, degraded performance, operator errors, and environment uncertainty. This paper will describe the array of technologies required to meet these complex objectives. This includes the integration of high-level reasoning and autonomous capabilities with multiple subsystem controllers for robust performance. Future intelligent systems will use models of the system, its environment, and other intelligent agents with which it interacts. They will also require planners, reasoning engines, and adaptive controllers that can recommend or execute commands enabling the system to respond intelligently. The presentation will also address the development of highly dependable software, which is a key component to ensure the reliability of intelligent systems.

Pallix, Joan↗

Aerocapture Performance Analysis for a Neptune-Triton Exploration Mission

A systems analysis has been conducted for a Neptune-Triton Exploration Mission in which aerocapture is used to capture a spacecraft at Neptune. Aerocapture uses aerodynamic drag instead of propulsion to decelerate from the interplanetary approach trajectory to a captured orbit during a single pass through the atmosphere. After capture, propulsion is used to move the spacecraft from the initial captured orbit to the desired science orbit. A preliminary assessment identified that a spacecraft with a lift to drag ratio of 0.8 was required for aerocapture. Performance analyses of the 0.8 L/D vehicle were performed using a high fidelity flight simulation within a Monte Carlo executive to determine mission success statistics. The simulation was the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) modified to include Neptune specific atmospheric and planet models, spacecraft aerodynamic characteristics, and interplanetary trajectory models. To these were added autonomous guidance and pseudo flight controller models. The Monte Carlo analyses incorporated approach trajectory delivery errors, aerodynamic characteristics uncertainties, and atmospheric density variations. Monte Carlo analyses were performed for a reference set of uncertainties and sets of uncertainties modified to produce increased and reduced atmospheric variability. For the reference uncertainties, the 0.8 L/D flatbottom ellipsled vehicle achieves 100% successful capture and has a 99.87 probability of attaining the science orbit with a 360 m/s V budget for apoapsis and periapsis adjustment. Monte Carlo analyses were also performed for a guidance system that modulates both bank angle and angle of attack with the reference set of uncertainties. An alpha and bank modulation guidance system reduces the 99.87 percentile DELTA V 173 m/s (48%) to 187 m/s for the reference set of uncertainties.

Starr, Brett R.↗

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

A Review of Hypersonics Aerodynamics, Aerothermodynamics and Plasmadynamics Activities within NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program

The research program of the aerodynamics, aerothermodynamics and plasmadynamics discipline of NASA's Hypersonic Project is reviewed. Details are provided for each of its three components: 1) development of physics-based models of non-equilibrium chemistry, surface catalytic effects, turbulence, transition and radiation; 2) development of advanced simulation tools to enable increased spatial and time accuracy, increased geometrical complexity, grid adaptation, increased physical-processes complexity, uncertainty quantification and error control; and 3) establishment of experimental databases from ground and flight experiments to develop better understanding of high-speed flows and to provide data to validate and guide the development of simulation tools.

Salas, Manuel D.↗

Inferring Cirrus Size Distributions Through Satellite Remote Sensing and Microphysical Databases

Since cirrus clouds have a substantial influence on the global energy balance that depends on their microphysical properties, climate models should strive to realistically characterize the cirrus ice particle size distribution (PSD), at least in a climatological sense. To date, the airborne in situ measurements of the cirrus PSD have contained large uncertainties due to errors in measuring small ice crystals (D<60 m). This paper presents a method to remotely estimate the concentration of the small ice crystals relative to the larger ones using the 11- and 12- m channels aboard several satellites. By understanding the underlying physics producing the emissivity difference between these channels, this emissivity difference can be used to infer the relative concentration of small ice crystals. This is facilitated by enlisting temperature-dependent characterizations of the PSD (i.e., PSD schemes) based on in situ measurements. An average cirrus emissivity relationship between 12 and 11 m is developed here using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument and is used to retrieve the PSD based on six different PSD schemes. The PSDs from the measurement-based PSD schemes are compared with corresponding retrieved PSDs to evaluate differences in small ice crystal concentrations. The retrieved PSDs generally had lower concentrations of small ice particles, with total number concentration independent of temperature. In addition, the temperature dependence of the PSD effective diameter De and fall speed Vf for these retrieved PSD schemes exhibited less variability relative to the unmodified PSD schemes. The reduced variability in the retrieved De and Vf was attributed to the lower concentrations of small ice crystals in the retrieved PSD.

Mitchell, David↗

Fluorescence Excitation Models of Ammonia and Amidogen Radical (NH2) in Comets: Application to Comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz)

Ammonia is a major reservoir of nitrogen atoms in cometary materials. However, detections of ammonia in comets are rare, with several achieved at radio wavelengths. A few more detections were obtained through near-infrared observations (around the 3 m wavelength region), but moderate relative velocity shifts are required to separate emission lines of cometary ammonia from telluric absorption lines in the 3 micron wavelength region. On the other hand, the amidogen radical (NH2 -- a photodissociation product of ammonia in the coma) also shows rovibrational emission lines in the 3 micron wavelength region. Thus, gas production rates for ammonia can be determined from the rovibrational emission lines of ammonia (directly) and amidogen radical (indirectly) simultaneously in the near-infrared. In this article, we present new fluorescence excitation models for cometary ammonia and amidogen radical in the near-infrared, and we apply these models to the near-infrared high-dispersion spectra of comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) to determine the mixing ratio of ammonia to water in the comet. Based on direct detection of NH3 lines, the mixing ratio of NH3/H2O is 0.46% +/- 0.03% in C/2004 Q2 (Machholz), in agreement with other results. The mixing ratio of ammonia determined from the NH2 observations (0.31% -- 0.79%) is consistent but has relatively larger error, owing to uncertainty in the photodissociation rates of ammonia. At the present level of accuracy, we confirm that NH3 could be the sole parent of NH2 in this comet.

Kawakita, Hideyo↗

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature Over Central and Eastern Eurasia from MODIS Land Surface Temperature

Surface air temperature (T(sub a)) is a critical variable in the energy and water cycle of the Earth.atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. This is a preliminary study to evaluate estimation of T(sub a) from satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature (T(sub s)) by using MODIS-Terra data over two Eurasia regions: northern China and fUSSR. High correlations are observed in both regions between station-measured T(sub a) and MODIS T(sub s). The relationships between the maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) depend significantly on land cover types, but the minimum T(sub a) and nighttime T(sub s) have little dependence on the land cover types. The largest difference between maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) appears over the barren and sparsely vegetated area during the summer time. Using a linear regression method, the daily maximum T(sub a) were estimated from 1 km resolution MODIS T(sub s) under clear-sky conditions with coefficients calculated based on land cover types, while the minimum T(sub a) were estimated without considering land cover types. The uncertainty, mean absolute error (MAE), of the estimated maximum T(sub a) varies from 2.4 C over closed shrublands to 3.2 C over grasslands, and the MAE of the estimated minimum Ta is about 3.0 C.

Shen, Suhung↗

Next-Generation Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Calculation from CERES Instruments: Validation

Radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument are fundamental variables for understanding the Earth's energy balance and how it changes with time. TOA radiative fluxes are derived from the CERES radiance measurements using empirical angular distribution models (ADMs). This paper evaluates the accuracy of CERES TOA fluxes using direct integration and flux consistency tests. Direct integration tests show that the overall bias in regional monthly mean TOA shortwave (SW) flux is less than 0.2Wm(exp -2) and the RMSE is less than 1.1Wm(exp -2). The bias and RMSE are very similar between Terra and Aqua. The bias in regional monthly mean TOA LW fluxes is less than 0.5Wm(exp -2) and the RMSE is less than 0.8Wm(exp -)2 for both Terra and Aqua. The accuracy of the TOA instantaneous flux is assessed by performing tests using fluxes inverted from nadir- and oblique-viewing angles using CERES along-track observations and temporally and spatially matched MODIS observations, and using fluxes inverted from multi-angle MISR observations. The averaged TOA instantaneous SW flux uncertainties from these two tests are about 2.3% (1.9Wm(exp -2) over clear ocean, 1.6% (4.5Wm(exp -2) over clear land, and 2.0% (6.0Wm(exp -) over clear snow/ice; and are about 3.3% (9.0Wm(exp -2), 2.7% (8.4Wm(exp -2), and 3.7% (9.9Wm(exp -2) over ocean, land, and snow/ice under all-sky conditions. The TOA SW flux uncertainties are generally larger for thin broken clouds than for moderate and thick overcast clouds. The TOA instantaneous daytime LW flux uncertainties derived from the CERESMODIS test are 0.5% (1.5Wm(exp -2), 0.8% (2.4Wm(exp -2), and 0.7% (1.3Wm(exp -2) over clear ocean, land, and snow/ice; and are about 1.5% (3.5Wm(exp -2), 1.0% (2.9Wm(exp -2), and 1.1% (2.1Wm(exp -2) over ocean, land, and snow/ice under all-sky conditions. The TOA instantaneous nighttime LW flux uncertainties are about 0.5-1% (<2.0Wm(exp -2) for all surface types. Flux uncertainties caused by errors in scene identification are also assessed by using the collocated CALIPSO, CloudSat, CERES and MODIS data product. Errors in scene identification tend to underestimate TOA SW flux by about 0.6Wm(exp -2) and overestimate TOA daytime (nighttime) LW flux by 0.4 (0.2)Wm(exp -2) when all CERES viewing angles are considered.

Su, W.↗