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At least 379 records · Page 21

The SIFT computer and its development

Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) is an aircraft control computer designed to allow failure probability of less than 10 to the -10th/hour. The system is based on advanced fault-tolerance computing and validation methodology. Since confirmation of reliability by observation is essentially impossible, system reliability is estimated by a Markov model. A mathematical proof is used to justify the validity of the Markov model. System design is represented by a hierarchy of abstract models, and the design proof comprises mathematical proofs that each model is, in fact, an elaboration of the next more abstract model.

Goldberg, J.↗

Care 3 model overview and user's guide, first revision

A manual was written to introduce the CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) capability to reliability and design engineers who are interested in predicting the reliability of highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. It was also structured to serve as a quick-look reference manual for more experienced users. The guide covers CARE III modeling and reliability predictions for execution in the CDC CYber 170 series computers, DEC VAX-11/700 series computer, and most machines that compile ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77.

Bavuso, S. J.↗

Mitigating Injection‐Induced Seismicity Along Basement Faults by Extraction: Application to 2016–2018 Pohang Earthquakes

Abstract The risk of induced earthquake is considered as the major obstacle for sustainable subsurface energy activities. As a mitigation approach, mechanistic risk assessment can be essential to minimize the potential of seismic hazard. Coupled hydro‐mechanical modeling approach is integrated with geomechanical analysis to better assess the occurrence of seismicity induced by injection and/or extraction, which will provide a basis to update operational conditions (e.g., number and location of mitigating wells, rate and duration of operations) for mitigating earthquake nucleation. The Coulomb stability analysis and seismicity rate estimates from this generic study indicate that simultaneous extraction can relieve injection‐induced pore‐pressure buildup, but also transfer and accumulate elastic energy along the faults. Field‐scale simulation with variation in well design for the Pohang EGS site, South Korea, show that multiple wells aligned across a preexisting fault form gradients of pressure and stress fields normal to the fault, which can enhance the direct impact of diffusion process and poroelastic stressing on the fault stability perturbation. Our mechanistic study suggests multiphysics‐oriented mitigation strategies that consider (1) possible mechanical deformation, caused by hydro‐mechanical coupling effects, and (2) proper configuration of well operations based on site‐specific geological characteristics.

Chang, K. W.↗

Steady Long-term Slip Rate on the Blue Cut Fault: Implications for Ongoing Block Rotation in the Eastern Transverse Ranges, CA

We report the Eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR) province of California contains a system of E-W-trending left-lateral faults accommodating clockwise block rotation between the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system in the Coachella Valley and the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) in the Mojave Desert. Building upon established geometric relationships, we estimate that this rotation across the ETR may transfer right-lateral strain from the SAF to the ECSZ at a time-averaged rate of ~4.3–7.7 mm/yr. Through geomorphic mapping and the analysis of 38 10 Be surface exposure samples, we derive a long-term slip rate of 1.26 ± 0.50 (2σ) mm/yr over the late Pleistocene, yet analysis of the displacement record indicates a rate decrease ~71 kya. While a rate change on this fault could have implications for possible plate boundary reorganization in this area, we argue that this slip rate variability more likely reflects routine fluctuation about a steady lifetime slip rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This study examines three different methodologies for producing loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) risks estimates for probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of crewed spacecraft. The three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches examined are a traditional static fault tree, a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation, and a fault tree hybrid that incorporates some dynamic elements. These approaches were used to model the reaction control system thruster pod of a generic crewed spacecraft and mission, and a comparative analysis of the methods is presented. The methodologies are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The system modeling process is compared in terms of the effort required to generate the initial model, update the model in response to design changes, and support mass-versus-risk trade studies. The results are compared by examining the top-level LOM/LOC estimates and the relative risk driver rankings at the failure mode level. The fidelity of each modeling methodology is discussed in terms of its capability to handle real-world system dynamics such as cold-sparing, changes in mission operations due to loss of redundancy, and common cause failure modes. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to different phases of system development and shows that a single methodology may not be suitable for all of the many purposes of a spacecraft PRA. The fault tree hybrid approach is shown to be best suited to the needs of early assessments during conceptual design phases. As the design begins to mature, the level of detail represented in the risk model must go beyond redundancy and nominal mission operations to include dynamic, time- and state-dependent system responses as well as diverse system capabilities. This is best accomplished using the dynamic simulation approach, since these phenomena are not easily captured by static methods. Ultimately, once the design has been finalized and the goal of the PRA is to provide design validation and requirement verification, more traditional, static fault tree approaches may become as appropriate as the simulation method.

Mattenberger, Christopher J.↗

Determination of relative site motions in the western United States using Mark III very long baseline interferometry

Four years of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements involving fixed and mobile stations in the western U.S. are analyzed using weighted least squares. Baseline solution time series are used to estimate rates of change of the vector baseline between pairs of VLBI stations. Horizontal vector motions are determined for 18 sites with respect to a site in the Mojave desert. Six sites west of and two sites just to the east of the San Andreas fault show northwestward motion closely parallel to the San Andreas fault. Their motions range from 18 to 43 mm/yr and are significant at confidence levels greater than 99 percent. Motions in California relative to interior North American plate sites are used to estimate an integrated contribution from Basin and Range spreading to the total relative Pacific plate motion as 9-10 mm/yr. A maximum relative velocity of 50-51 mm/yr is found between the interior North American sites and the western California sites, in close agreement with the NUVEL-1 plate motion model.

Clark, T. A.↗

Geothermal Reservoir Characterization at Wattenberg Area in Denver Basin

The geothermal potential of the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin is largely overlooked. This study focuses on characterizing the geothermal potential in the greater Wattenberg area within the Denver Basin, using available well data and subsurface information and gas wells drilled to above 2500 m deep. The review reveals that the main structures comprise ENE-trending wrench faults, along with NNE, N, and NNW trending normal faults. A thermal anomaly is present bonded by Lafayette and Longmont wrench faults and overlying vitrinite reflectance anomaly. The geometry of thermal anomaly suggests that it is influenced by Longmont wrench fault and Lafayette fault, as well as the basin margin fault. Bottom hole temperatures are of 160 Degrees Celsius, with thermal gradients of and 62 Degrees Celsius/km. Reservoir temperature estimates from thermal gradients suggest a range of >200 Degrees Celsius at depths of 3 km.

Denver basin↗

Fault-Tolerant Decentralized Control for Large-Scale Inverter-Based Resources for Active Power Tracking

Integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) which lack the intrinsic characteristics such as the inertial response of the traditional synchronous-generator (SG)-based sources presents a new challenge in the form of analyzing the grid stability under their presence. While the dynamic composition of IBRs differs from that of the SGs, the control objective remains similar in terms of tracking the desired active power. This letter presents a decentralized primal-dual-based fault-tolerant control framework for the power allocation in IBRs. Overall, a hierarchical control algorithm is developed with a lower level addressing the current control and the parameter estimation for the IBRs and the higher level acting as the reference power generator to the low level based on the desired active power profile. The decentralized network-based algorithm adaptively splits the desired power between the IBRs taking into consideration the health of the IBRs transmission lines. The proposed framework is tested through a simulation on the network of IBRs and the high-level controller performance is compared against the existing framework in the literature. The proposed algorithm shows significant performance improvement in the magnitude of power deviation and settling time to the nominal value under faulty conditions as compared to the algorithm in the literature.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Geothermal play fairway analysis, part 1: Example from the Snake River Plain, Idaho

The Snake River Plain (SRP) volcanic province overlies the track of the Yellowstone hotspot, a thermal anomaly that extends deep into the mantle. Most of the area is underlain by a basaltic volcanic province that overlies a mid-crustal intrusive complex, which in turn provides the long-term heat flux needed to sustain geothermal systems. Previous studies have identified several known geothermal resource areas within the SRP. For the geothermal study presented herein, our goals were to: (1) adapt the methodology of Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) for geothermal exploration to create a formal basis for its application to geothermal systems, (2) assemble relevant data for the SRP from publicly available and private sources, and (3) build a geothermal PFA model for the SRP and identify the most promising plays, using GIS-based software tools that are standard in the petroleum industry. The study focused on identifying three critical resource parameters for exploitable hydrothermal systems in the SRP: heat source, reservoir and recharge permeability, and cap or seal. Data included in the compilation for heat source were heat flow, distribution and ages of volcanic vents, groundwater temperatures, thermal springs and wells, helium isotope anomalies, and reservoir temperatures estimated using geothermometry. Reservoir and recharge permeability was inferred from the analysis of stress orientations and magnitudes, post-Miocene faults, and subsurface structural lineaments based on magnetics and gravity data. Data for cap or seal included the distribution of impermeable lake sediments and clay-seal associated with hydrothermal alteration below the regional aquifer. These data were used to compile Common Risk Segment maps for heat, permeability, and seal, which were combined to create a Composite Common Risk Segment map for all southern Idaho that reflects the risk associated with geothermal resource exploration and identifies favorable resource tracks. Our regional assessment indicated that undiscovered geothermal resources may be located in several areas of the SRP. Two of these areas, the western SRP and Camas Prairie, were selected for more detailed assessment, during which heat, permeability, and seal were evaluated using newly collected field data and smaller grid parameters to refine the location of potential resources. These higher resolution assessments illustrate the flexibility of our approach over a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microstructures and deformation mechanisms of the medium-entropy alloy (NiCoCr) 76 (Ni 6 AlTi) 3

Here the microstructures and deformation mechanisms of the f.c.c. medium-entropy alloy (MEA) (NiCoCr) 76 (Ni 6 AlTi) 3 has been analyzed after various thermo-mechanical treatments. The solutionized, single-phase MEA, which had a grain size of 93.4 ± 31.9 μm, was cold-rolled (CR) to a 80% thickness reduction after which it showed both a high yield strength (YS) of 1539 MPa and a high ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of 1602 MPa, but an elongation to failure, ε, of only 16%. The CR MEA was then subjected to one of two heat treatments: (1) the CR MEA was recrystallized at 1100°C for 24 h, which produced a single-phase material with 85 ± 61.7 μm grain size that exhibited a much lower YS and UTS of 364 MPa and 747 MPa, respectively, but a much greater ε of 73%; and (2) the MEA was aged at 700°C for 24 h, which produced a fine-grained (1.1 ± 0.9 μm) material and a high volume fraction (0.35) of 12 nm dia. L1 2 nanoparticles that exhibited an excellent combination of strength and ductility, viz., YS~1501 MPa, UTS~1651 MPa, elongation ~26%. The grain boundary strengthening and precipitation strengthening were together estimated to account for ~58% of the YS in the latter material. After deformation, the recrystallized MEA contained numerous stacking faults and a Taylor lattice structure containing domain boundaries and microbands, while the aged MEA exhibited numerous stacking faults and sheared particles. The density of low-angle grain boundaries (LAGBs) in the recrystallized MEA increased by 100 times to 2.2 × 10 –1 μm/μm 2 while the density of CSL Σ3 n boundaries decreased by 71% to 7.8 × 10 –3 μm/μm 2 after deformation. In contrast, the density of LAGBs in the aged MEA increased by 5 times to 2.6 μm/μm 2 while the density of CSL Σ3 n boundaries decreased by 57% to 0.6 μm/μm 2 after deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Automating NISQ Application Design with Meta Quantum Circuits with Constraints (MQCC)

Near-term intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) computers are likely to have very restricted hardware resources, where precisely controllable qubits are expensive, error-prone, and scarce. Programmers of such computers must therefore balance trade-offs among a large number of (potentially heterogeneous) factors specific to the targeted application and quantum hardware. To assist them, we propose Meta Quantum Circuits with Constraints (MQCC), a meta-programming framework for quantum programs. Programmers express their application as a succinct collection of normal quantum circuits stitched together by a set of (manually or automatically) added meta-level choice variables, whose values are constrained according to a programmable set of quantitative optimization criteria. MQCC’s compiler generates the appropriate constraints and solves them via an SMT solver, producing an optimized, runnable program. We showcase a few MQCC’s applications for its generality including an automatic generation of efficient error syndrome extraction schemes for fault-tolerant quantum error correction with heterogeneous qubits and an approach to writing approximate quantum Fourier transformation and quantum phase estimation that smoothly trades off accuracy and resource use. We also illustrate that MQCC can easily encode prior one-off NISQ application designs-–multi-programming (MP), crosstalk mitigation (CM)—as well as a combination of their optimization goals (i.e., a combined MP-CM).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Geophysical interpretation of satellite laser ranging measurements of crustal movement in California

As determined by satellite laser ranging the rate of contraction of a 900 kilometer baseline between sites located near Quincy in northern California and San Diego in southern California is about 61 to 65 mm/yr with a formal uncertainty of about 10 mm/yr. The measured changes in baseline length are a manifestation of the relative motion between the North America and Pacific tectonic plates. This long baseline result is compared to measurements made by more conventional means on shorter baselines. Additional information based on seismicity, geology, and theoretical modelling is also analyzed. Deformation lying within a few tens of kilometers about the major faults in southern California accounts for most, but not all of the observed motion. Further motion is attributable to a broader scale deformation in southern California. Data suggesting crustal movements north of the Garlock fault, in and near the southern Sierra Nevada and local motion at an observatory are also critically reviewed. The best estimates of overall motion indicated by ground observations lie between 40 and 60 mm/yr. This lies within one or two standard deviations of that deduced by satellite ranging but the possibility of some unresolved deficit cannot be dismissed. The long time scale RM2 plate tectonic model of Minster and Jordan predicts a contraction between 47 and 53 mm/yr depending on the extension rate of the Basin and Range. Thus the ground based observations, satellite laser ranging (SLR) results, and RM2 rates differ at about the 10 mm/yr level and are consistent with one another within the data and model uncertainties.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Sufficiency and necessity in reliability modeling

Limitations of current analytic techniques in estimating the reliability of life-critical electronics systems are discussed. A new framework for specification of recovery and fault-handling submodels is suggested, and is shown through several examples to provide substantially improved modeling accuracy and flexibility. Implementation of the new technique in an X-windows based system, XHARP, is also described. The implementation allows for an automated behavioral decomposition of full system models, heretofore unavailable in such tools.

Geist, Robert↗

WEC fault modelling and condition monitoring: A graph-theoretic approach

The nature of wave resources usually requires wave energy converter (WEC) components to handle peak loads (i.e., torques, forces, and powers) that are many times greater than their average loads, accelerating equipment degradation. Moreover, due to their isolated nature and harsh operating environment, WEC systems are projected to possess high operations and maintenance (O&M) cost, i.e., around 27% of their leveled cost of energy. As such, developing techniques to mitigate these costs through the application of condition monitoring and fault tolerant control will significantly impact the economic feasibility of grid connected WEC power. Toward this goal, models of faulty components are developed in the open source modeling platform, WEC-Sim, to estimate the performance and measurable states of a WEC operating with likely device and sensor failures. Two types of faulty component models are then applied to a point absorber WEC model with basic controller damping and spring forces. Resulting changes in device behavior are recorded as a benchmark, and a graph-theoretic approach is proposed for fault detection and identification utilizing multivariate time series. Simulation results demonstrate that these faults can greatly affect the WEC performance, and that the proposed method can effectively detect and classify different types of faults.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Geometry of miocene extensional deformation, lower Colorado River Region, Southeastern California and Southwestern Arizona: Evidence for the presence of a regional low-angle normal fault

The geometry of Miocene extensional deformation, which changes along a 120 km-long, northeast-trending transect from the southestern Chocolate Mountains, southeastern California, to the Trigo and southern Dome Rock Mountains, southwestern Arizona is discussed. Based upon regional differences in the structural response to extension and estimated extensional strain, the transet can be divided into three northwesterly-trending structural domains. From southwest to northeast, these domains are: (1) southestern Chocolate-southernmost Trigo Mountains; (2) central to northern Trigo Mountains; and (3) Trigo Peaks-southern Dome Rock Mountains. All structures formed during the deformation are brittle in style; fault rocks are composed of gouge, cohesive gouge, and local microbreccia. In each structural domain, exposed lithologic units are composed of Mesozoic crystalline rocks unconformably overlain by Oligocene to Early Miocene volcanic and minor interbedded sedimentary rocks. Breccia, conglomerate, and sandstone deposited synchronously with regional extension locally overlie the volcanic rocks. Extensional deformation largely postdated the main phase of volcanic activity, but rare rhyolitic tuff and flows interbedded with the syndeformational clastic rocks suggest that deformation began during the waning stages of valcanism. K-Ar isotopic ages indicate that deformation occurred in Miocene time, between about 22 and m.y. ago.

Tosdal, R. M.↗

Iterative multi-task learning and inference from seismic images

Seismic interpretation aims to extract quantitative and interpretable attributes from a seismic image produced using some migration method to inform characteristics of a subsurface reservoir or target of interest. Current paradigms for computing seismic attributes mostly rely on single-task algorithms. We develop an iterative, multi-task machine learning method to learn and infer multiple attributes from a seismic image. This method is composed of two stages: a multi-task inference stage and a multi-modal, multi-task refinement stage. The basic mechanism of this method is that we train a multi-task inference neural network (NN) to estimate a set of attributes, including a relative geological time (RGT), a denoised higher-resolution (DHR) seismic image, and multiple fault attributes (including probability, dip, and strike), from a low-resolution, noisy seismic image; then we input the inferred attributes to a multi-task refinement NN to enhance the raw inference results iteratively. The two multi-task NNs are trained separately based on synthetic seismic images and associated attributes generated by a geological modeling algorithm. The software we intend to release is a PyTorch implementation of this multi-task learning method for both 2D and 3D cases along with scripts to run the training/validation. The algorithm and software can be a useful tool for automatic seismic interpretation.

Gao, Kai↗