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At least 379 records · Page 21

Mixing of the Connecticut River Plume During Ambient Flood Tides: Spatial Heterogeneity and Contributions of Bottom–Generated and Interfacial Mixing

The Connecticut River plume is influenced by energetic ambient tides in the Long Island Sound receiving waters. The objectives of this modeling study are (a) characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of turbulent buoyancy fluxes, (b) partitioning turbulent buoyancy fluxes into bottom-generated and interfacial shear contributions, and (c) quantifying contributions to plume-integrated mixing within the tidal plume. The plume formed during ambient flood tides under low river discharge, spring tides, and no winds is analyzed. Turbulent buoyancy fluxes (B) and depth-integrated B through the plume (Bd) are characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Strong mixing (Bd ~ 10 –5 -10 –4 m 3 /s 3 ) occurs near the mouth, in the nearfield plume turning region, over shoals, and nearshore shallow areas. Low to moderate mixing (Bd ~ 10 –8 -10 –6 m 3 /s 3 ) occupies half the plume. Buoyancy fluxes are first partitioned based on the depth of the shear stress minimum between plume-generated and bottom-generated shear maxima. Four other tested partitioning methods are based on open channel flow and stratified shear flow parameterizations. Interfacial and bottom-generated shear contribute to different areas of intense and moderate mixing. All methods indicate a significant plume mixing role for bottom-generated mixing, but interfacial mixing is a bigger contributor. Plume-integrated total and interfacial mixing peak at max ambient flood and the timing of peak bottom-generated mixing varies among partitioning methods. Two-thirds of the mixing occurs in concentrated intense mixing areas. A parameter space with the ambient tidal Froude number and plume thickness to depth ratio as axes indicates many tidally modulated plumes are moderately to dominantly influenced by bottom-generated tidal mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions

Accurate flood early warnings are critical to minimize damage and loss of life. Current large‐scale operational forecasting systems, however, have limited accuracy, description of uncertainty, and computational efficiency. While Artificial intelligence (AI) can address these limitations in principle, the accuracy and reliability of AI forecasts have thus far proven insufficient. Here we present a novel hybrid framework that integrates AI‐based machinery termed Errorcastnet (ECN) with the National Water Model (NWM) to showcase the potential of ensemble AI flood forecasts over the contiguous U.S. ECN boosts prediction accuracy four‐ to six‐fold across lead times of 1–10 days, while providing uncertainty quantification. It also outperforms Google's state‐of‐the‐art global AI model. ECN‐based forecasts offer superior economic value (up to four‐fold) for decision‐making as compared to those from NWM alone. ECN performs well in varied ecoregions, physiography, and land management conditions. The framework is computationally efficient, enabling national‐scale ensemble forecasts in minutes.

artificial intelligence↗

Resilience of Urban Transport Network-of-Networks under Intense Flood Hazards Exacerbated by Targeted Attacks

Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develop a hypothesis-driven resilience framework for urban transport NoNs, which we demonstrate on the London Rail Network (LRN). We find that topological attributes designed for maximizing efficiency rather than robustness render the network more vulnerable to compound natural-targeted disruptions including cascading failures. Our results suggest that an organizing principle for post-disruption recovery may be developed with network science principles. Our findings and frameworks can generalize to urban lifelines and more generally to real-world spatial networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale drivers of extreme southern California flooding: ENSO, MJO, North Pacific jet, and atmospheric rivers

Extreme rainfall and flooding, driven by a powerful atmospheric river (AR) and a persistent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), hit Southern California in February 2024 during the 2023–2024 El Niño, affecting over 10 million people. ARs are key contributors to extreme rainfall and flooding along the U.S. West Coast. Although the AR-MJO link has been documented, its spatio-temporal variability remains a major forecasting and risk-management challenge. Combining precipitation, stream gauge and demographic data, we quantify the physical drivers and population exposure to this extreme event. Leveraging a Lagrangian MJO precipitation tracking algorithm, we unravel the multiscale interactions responsible for the AR’s development. El Niño favored a large, long-lived MJO that interacted with the North Pacific Jet (NPJ) over more than three weeks. The MJO convective outflow modulated the NPJ by inducing negative potential vorticity advection along the tropopause. The ensuing NPJ extension and acceleration induced explosive cyclogenesis, whose AR-driven moisture transport resulted in extreme rainfall.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

Efficient Extraction Of Building Elevation Attributes For Flood Risk Management Using Airborne LiDAR Data

In this paper, we address the need for extracting two key building elevation attributes—Lowest Adjacent Grade (LAG) and Highest Adjacent Grade (HAG)—which are crucial for effective flood risk management. Conventional methods, involving onsite surveying or the use of optical imagery-derived building footprints combined with Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), often face misalignment and time discrepancy issues due to varied remote sensing sources. We introduce a new, scalable method that exclusively relies on airborne LiDAR data to overcome these challenges. Our approach employs an object-based ground filtering technique, and the results were evaluated using two different DEMs and building footprint sets. The findings demonstrate that our single-source method, utilizing only airborne LiDAR data, significantly improves the accuracy of LAG and HAG calculations compared to traditional methods that use hand-digitized building footprints. The proposed approach offers a solution for comprehensive flood risk management endeavors.

Song, Hunsoo↗

The Conventional Gas Diffusion Electrode May Not Be Resistant to Flooding during CO 2 /CO Reduction

The electrochemical CO 2 or CO reduction to chemicals and fuels using renewable energy is a promising way to reduce anthropogenic carbon emissions. The gas diffusion electrode (GDE) design enables low-carbon manufacturing of target products at a current density (e.g., 500 mA cm –2 ) relevant to industrial requirements. However, the long-term stability of the GDE is restricted by poor water management and flooding, resulting in a significant hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) within almost an hour. The optimization of water management in the GDE demands a thorough understanding of the role of the gas diffusion layer (GDL) and the catalyst layer (CL) distinctively. In this work, the hydrophobicity of the GDL and CL is independently adjusted to investigate their influence on gas transport efficiency and water management. The gas transport efficiency is more enhanced with the increase in hydrophobicity of the GDL than the CL. Direct visualization of water distribution by optical microscope and micro-computed tomography demonstrates that the water flow pattern transfers from the stable displacement to capillary fingering as GDL hydrophobicity increases. Unfortunately, only increasing the hydrophobicity is not sufficient to prevent flooding. A revolutionary change in the design of the GDE structure is essential to maintain the long-term stability of CO 2 /CO reduction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pressure Modification or Barrier Issues during Polymer Flooding Enhanced Oil Recovery

Effective oil displacement from a reservoir requires adequate and properly directed pressure gradients in areas of high oil saturation. If the polymer bank is too large or too viscous during a polymer flood, the pressure drops from the injection well to the polymer front may act as a pressure modification or barrier by usurping most of the downstream driving force for oil displacement. Polymer injection pressures must be limited. The maximum allowable injection pressure is commonly constrained by caprock integrity, injection equipment, and/or regulations, even though fractures can be beneficial to polymer injectivity. This paper examines when the pressure-barrier concept limits the size and viscosity of the polymer bank during a polymer flood. Analytical and numerical methods are used to address this issue. We examine the relevance of the pressure modification concept for a wide variety of circumstances, including oil viscosities ranging from 10 cp to 1650 cp, vertical wells versus horizontal wells, single versus multiple layered reservoirs, permeability contrast, and crossflow between layers. We also examine the relation between the pressure-barrier concept and fractures and fracture extension during polymer injection. We demonstrate that in reservoirs with single layers, the pressure-barrier concept only limits the optimum viscosity of the injected polymer if the mobility of the polymer bank is less than the mobility of the displaced oil bank. The same is true for multizoned reservoirs with no crossflow between layers. Thus, for these cases, the optimum polymer viscosity is likely to be dictated by the mobility of the oil bank, unless other factors intervene. For multizoned reservoirs with free crossflow between layers, the situation is different. A compromise must be reached between injected polymer viscosity and the efficiency of oil recovery. This work is particularly relevant to viscous oil reservoirs where polymer viscosities are substantially lower than the oil viscosity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dataset for 'Ombadi, M. & Varadharajan, C. (2022). Urbanization and aridity mediate distinct salinity response to floods in rivers and streams across the Contiguous United States, Water Research'

This package contains data sets and code used to obtain the results in Ombadi, M., & Varadharajan, C. (2022). Urbanization and aridity mediate distinct salinity response to floods in rivers and streams across the Contiguous United States. Water Research, 118664. The folder "data" contains 259 .csv files, each of which has daily time series of concurrent streamflow (Q) and specific conductance (SC) for each of the sites used in this study originally downloaded from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS; USGS, 2016). The number of data points in each of the files is at least 3650 (i.e. 10 years of daily measurements). The folder "RF_single_data" contains 259 .csv files, each of which include data used to train and test the Random Forest models at individual sites for predicting SC during days of floods. The folder "RF_regional_data" contains 3 .csv files, each of which include scaled data compiled from all sites within each climate zone (arid, temperate and wet). "metadata.csv" contains the physical properties of the 259 catchments corresponding to the sites used in this study; this data was extracted from GAGES-II dataset (Falcone et al., 2010). "RF_implementation.ipynb" is a Jupyter notebook with the code needed to implement the analysis using Random Forest models either for individual sites or for the regional models (for each climate zone). The code utilizes the data in the two folders: "RF_single_data" and "RF_regional_data" and the metadata.csv file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Myers-Pigg et al. (2026), "Short-term coastal forest responses to a hurricane-scale freshwater and saltwater flooding experiment"

Coastal upland forests are exposed to intensifying precipitation regimes and sea level rise, increasing tree mortality and transforming these coastal forests into wetland ecosystems. Despite these well-known risks, the differing degrees to which hydrological, biogeochemical, and biological components of upland forests respond to novel salinity exposure is relatively unknown. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experiment decouples two distinct disturbances associated with hydrological extremes: (1) flooding from heavy precipitation and (2) exposure to saline conditions from storm surge. This dataset includes data reported in Myers-Pigg et al. (2025), which analyzed data from the first TEMPEST flooding treatment in 2022. This includes: - Colored dissolved organic matter in porewaters - Soil temperature and oxygen - Groundwater temperature and chemistry - Dissolved organic carbon concentrations in porewaters - Soil-to-atmosphere CH4 and CO2 fluxes - Soil temperature, water content, and electrical conductivity - Root-influenced CH4 and CO2 flux - Tree sap flow velocity - The R analytical code and documentation about the computational environmental in which it was run (the "sessionInfo.txt" file) All data files are plain-text comma separated value (CSV) and no special software is required to read them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Polymer Retention Evaluation in a Heavy Oil Sand for a Polymer Flooding Application on Alaska’s North Slope

For a polymer flooding field trial in a heavy oil reservoir on Alaska’s North Slope, polymer retention is a key parameter. Because of the economic impact of retention, this parameter was extensively studied using field core material and conditions. Several important findings were noted. Polymer retention based on effluent viscosity measurements can be overestimated unless the correct (non-linear) relation between polymer concentration and viscosity is used. Polymer degradation (either mechanical or oxidative) can also lead viscosity-based measurements to overestimate retention. Inaccessible pore volume (IAPV) can be overestimated if insufficient brine is flushed through the sand between polymer banks. Around 100 pore volumes (PV) of brine may be needed to displace mobile polymer to approach a true residual resistance factor and properly measure IAPV. Even for a sand pack with kwsor = 20 mD, IAPV was zero for HPAM with molecular weight (Mw) of 18 million g/mol. Fine-grain particles (<20 μm) strongly impacted polymer retention values. Native NB#1 sand with a significant component of particles <20 μm exhibited 290 μg/g, while the same sand exhibited 28 μg/g after these small particles were removed. Polymer retention did not necessarily correlate with mineral composition. The NB#1, NB#3, and OA sands had similar elemental and clay compositions, but the NB#1 sand exhibited ~10 times higher retention than the NB#3 sand. Polymer retention did not necessarily correlate with permeability. NB#1 sand exhibited much higher retention than OA sand, even though NB#1 sand was twice as permeable as OA sand. No evidence of chromatographic separation of HPAM molecular weights was found in our experiments. Although retention tended to be greater without a residual oil saturation (than at Sor), the effect was not strong. Aging a core (with high oil saturation) at 60°C reduced HPAM retention by a factor of two. As expected, under similar conditions, polymer retention was greater for a higher Mw HPAM (18 million g/mol) than for a lower Mw HPAM (10-12 million g/mol). In many cases with high polymer retention values (e.g., 240 μg/g), polymer arrival at the end of the core was relatively quick, but achieving the injected concentration occurred gradually over many pore volumes. This effect was not due chromatographic separation of polymer molecular weights. Results from modeling of this behavior was consistent with concentrationdependent polymer retention. The form assumed for the retention function in a simulator can have an important impact on the timing and magnitude of the oil response from a polymer flood. Field-based observations can underestimate polymer retention, depending on when the tracer and polymer concentrations were measured and the assumptions made about reservoir heterogeneity.

Wang, Dongmei↗

Literature Review and Experimental Observations of the Effects of Salinity, Hardness, Lithology, and ATBS Content on HPAM Polymer Retention for the Milne Point Polymer Flood

Summary At the Milne Point polymer flood (North Slope of Alaska), polymer retention is dominated by the clay, illite. Illite, and kaolinite cause no delay in polymer propagation in Milne Point core material, but they reduce the effective polymer concentration and viscosity by a significant amount (e.g., 30%), thus reducing the efficiency of oil displacement until the full injected polymer concentration is regained [which requires several pore volumes (PVs) of throughput]. This work demonstrates that polymer retention on illite is not sensitive to monovalent ion concentration, but it increases significantly with increased divalent cation concentration. The incorporation of a small percentage of acrylamido tertiary butyl sulfonic acid (ATBS) monomers into hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM) polymers is shown to dramatically reduce retention. The results are discussed in context with previous literature reports. Bridging adsorption was proposed as a viable mechanism to explain our results. Interestingly, an extensive literature review reveals that polymer retention (on sands and sandstones) is typically only modestly sensitive to the presence of oil. Extensive examination of the literature on inaccessible pore volume (IAPV) suggests the parameter was commonly substantially overestimated, especially in rock/sand more permeable than 500 md (which comprises the vast majority of existing field polymer floods).

Engineering↗

Review of Software Packages for Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

This report documents the review of the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches used to estimate local intense precipitation (LIP) flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages. The review focused on a few representative simulation software packages because of the similarity of their underlying mathematical bases and the rainfall-runoff and hydraulic processes included. Their availability for use in estimating LIP flood hazards and for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff review of these estimates at the nuclear power plant (NPP) site scale were also considered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

First Ever Field Pilot on Alaska's North Slope to Validate the Use of Polymer Floods for Heavy Oil EOR a.k.a Alaska North Slope Field Laboratory (ANSFL)

Alaska’s high viscosity oil resources that range between 20–30+ billion barrels represent about a third of known North Slope original oil in place (OOIP). These resources are primarily concentrated in the Schrader Bluff formation (also called West Sak on the Western North Slope) and Ugnu reservoirs and are categorized as “viscous oils” and “heavy oils” owing to their in-situ viscosities between 5–10,000 cP and up to a million+ cP respectively. The viscous oil deposits are relatively deeper (2,000 – 5,000 ft), whereas the heavy oils are somewhat shallower (2,000 – 4,000 ft). The typically shallow depths and the proximity to the continuous permafrost results in relatively lower formation temperatures and pressures, and consequently higher viscosities. The vertical depth vs. viscosity delineated in Paskvan et al. (2016) differentiates the viscous and heavy oils. As depicted in Paskvan et al. (2016), currently the main focus (referred to as “developing”) is on the viscous oils in the Schrader Bluff formation in the Milne Point Unit (MPU). Notwithstanding this Alaska North Slope (ANS) specific categorization, we use the industry adopted, all-inclusive term “heavy oil” for all high viscosity oils. Resource characterization and additional details can be found in topical publications of Paskvan et al. (2016) and Targac et al. (2005). Despite the vast resource base, the development pace, vis-à-vis the production of heavy oils has been very slow and limited due to multiple factors such as cost, logistics, challenging arctic environment, poor waterflood sweep efficiency due to mobility contrasts, and significantly high minimum miscibility pressures (MMP). Most importantly, typical or standard thermal methods that are commonplace elsewhere (Canada, California) are inapplicable due to the continuous permafrost. As a consequence, cumulative production of heavy and viscous oils is a little over 1% of OOIP slope wide and currently, there is hardly any production from Ugnu. However, on a broader level, these unfavorable factors are outweighed by the fact that (1) these resources, within the established infrastructure, are too large to ignore because of their strategic importance to the Nation and the State of Alaska and (2) Prudhoe Bay type diluent crude oil is still available for heavy oil transport through the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Similarly, from a reservoir standpoint, the following factors also are important offsets: (1) favorable rock characteristics of Schrader Bluff; (2) the promise demonstrated by the initial scoping studies (Seright 2010, 2011) suggesting significant increase of heavy oil recovery using polymer flooding; (3) successful field implementation in Canada, China and elsewhere in the world, and (4) availability of the existing pairs of horizontal injector-producer in Schrader Bluff The foregoing was recognized as the best readily available opportunity for significant investment by the US Department of Energy and the field operator Hilcorp Alaska LLC to conduct the first ever field scale experiment to test the polymer flooding technology to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. With this primary goal in mind, the research team embarked on a ~4.5 years long project that focused on the field polymer pilot complemented by supporting laboratory and simulation studies. As documented in this final report, over the course of the project, many lessons have been learned and valuable field and supporting laboratory data has been collected, which also is complemented by numerical reservoir simulations. We have been able to establish the injectivity of polymer solution, evidence of significant reduction in the water cut of previously waterflooded pattern, effective propagation of a hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), benefits of low salinity water, provide practical guidance on handling of produced fluids containing breakthrough polymer, fit-for-purpose forecast-worthy history matched simulation model, polymer EOR benefit of 700-1000 bopd over waterflood, and most importantly a low polymer utilization factor of ~1.7 lb/stb. In summary this project is deemed as a scientific, technical and economic success, having met all objectives, fulfilled deliverables and within budget, providing impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field paving the way for even heavier viscosity oils in the Ugnu area, eventually extending the economic life of TAPS.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Long-Term Chemical Analyses in Biota Collected Upstream of the Pajarito Canyon Flood Retention Structure and Los Alamos Canyon Weir at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The Cerro Grande wildfire was a major disaster that burned during the summer of 2000 in the Jemez Mountains and parts of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or Laboratory). As an immediate response to the fire, the United States Department of Energy generated a list of post-fire actions needed to mitigate the impacts of this disaster, including flooding and the potential for erosion. Two structures built post-fire include the Pajarito Canyon flood retention structure (FRS) and the Los Alamos Canyon weir. Environmental monitoring at these two structures has occurred since the early 2000s as part of ongoing efforts to evaluate impacts of the fire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variability in soil redox response to seasonal flooding in a vernal pond

Vernal ponds are ephemeral landscape features that experience intermittent flooding and drying, leading to variable saturation in underlying soils. Redox potential (E h ) is an important indicator of biogeochemical processes that changes in response to these hydrological shifts; however, high-resolution measurements of E h in variably inundated environments remain sparse. In this study, the responses of soil E h to ponding, drying, and rewetting of a vernal pond were investigated over a 5-month period from late spring through early autumn. Soil E h was measured at 10-min frequencies and at multiple soil depths (2–48 cm below the soil surface) in shallow and deep sections within the seasonally ponded lowland and in unsaturated soils of the surrounding upland. Over the study period, average E h in surface soils (0–8 cm) was oxidizing in the upland (753 ± 79 mV) but relatively reducing in the shallow lowland (369 ± 49 mV) and deep lowland (198 ± 37 mV). Reducing conditions (E h <300 mV) in surface soils prevailed for up to 6 days in the shallow lowland and up to 24 days in the deep lowland after surface water dried out. Intermittent reflooding resulted in multiple shifts between reducing and oxidizing conditions in the shallow lowland while the deep lowland remained reducing following reflooding. Soil E h in the uplands was consistently oxidizing over the study period with transient increases in response to rain events. Reducing conditions in the lowland resulted in greater Fe-oxide dissolution and release of dissolved Fe and P into porewater than in the surrounding uplands. We determined that change in water depth alone was not a good indicator of soil E h , and additional factors such as soil saturation and clay composition should be considered when predicting how E h responds to surface flooding and drying. These findings highlight the spatial and temporal variability of E h within ponds and have implications for how soil processes and ecosystem function are impacted by shifts in hydrology at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Some effects of grooved runway configurations on aircraft tire braking traction under flooded runway conditions

An experimental investigation was conducted to study the effect of grooved runway configurations on aircraft tire braking traction on flooded runway surfaces. The investigation was performed, utilizing size 49 x 17, type VII, aircraft tires with an inflation pressure of 170 lb per square inch at ground speeds up to approximately 120 knots. The results of this investigation indicate that when the runway is flooded, grooved surfaces provide better braking traction than an ungrooved surface and, in general, the level of braking traction was found to improve as the tire bearing pressure was increased because of an increase in the groove area of either the surface or the tire tread. Rounding the groove edges tended to degrade the tire braking capability from that developed on the same groove configuration with sharp edges. Results also indicate that braking friction coefficients for the test tires and runway surfaces decreased as ground speed was increased because of the hydroplaning effects.

Byrdsong, T. A.↗

Power law time dependence of river flood decay and its relationship to long term discharge frequency distribution

Investigations have continued into the possibility that significant information on stream flow rates can be obtained from aerial and satellite imagery of river meander patterns by seeking a correlation between the meander and discharge spectra of rivers. Such a correlation could provide the basis for a simple and inexpensive technique for remote sensing of the water resources of large geographical areas, eliminating the need for much hydrologic recording. The investigation of the nature of the meander and discharge spectra and their interrelationship can also contribute to a more fundamental understanding of the processes of both river meander formation and drainage of large basins. It has been found that floods decay with an inverse power law dependence on time. The exponent of this dependence varies from river to river and even from station to station along the same river. This power law time dependence makes possible the forecasting of river discharge with an uncertainty of about 5% for as long as a month following the flood peak.

Schubert, G.↗

Erosion by catastrophic floods on Mars and Earth

The morphologic features of the large Martian channels are shown to be strikingly similar to those of the Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington, produced by the catastrophic breakout floods of Pleistocene Lake Missoula. If the analogy is correct, floods involving water discharges of millions of cubic meters per second and peak flow velocities of tens of meters per second, but perhaps lasting no more than a few days, may have occurred on Mars.

Baker, V. R.↗