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At least 379 records · Page 21

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

CWAM↗

Use and Assessment of Multi-Spectral Satellite Imagery in NWS Operational Forecasting Environments

NOAA's Satellite Proving Grounds have established partnerships between product developers and NWS WFOs for the evaluation of new capabilities from the GOES-R and JPSS satellite systems. SPoRT has partnered with various WFOs to evaluate multispectral (RGB) products from MODIS, VIIRS and Himawari/AHI to prepare for GOES-R/ABI. Assisted through partnerships with GINA, UW/CIMSS, NOAA, and NASA Direct Broadcast capabilities.

VIIRS↗

A 30-day forecast experiment with the GISS model and updated sea surface temperatures

The GISS model was used to compute two parallel global 30-day forecasts for the month January 1974. In one forecast, climatological January sea surface temperatures were used, while in the other observed sea temperatures were inserted and updated daily. A comparison of the two forecasts indicated no clear-cut beneficial effect of daily updating of sea surface temperatures. Despite the rapid decay of daily predictability, the model produced a 30-day mean forecast for January 1974 that was generally superior to persistence and climatology when evaluated over either the globe or the Northern Hemisphere, but not over smaller regions.

Spar, J.↗

Data Quality Assessment Methods for the Eastern Range 915 MHz Wind Profiler Network

The Eastern Range installed a network of five 915 MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profilers with Radio Acoustic Sounding Systems in the Cape Canaveral Air Station/Kennedy Space Center area to provide three-dimensional wind speed and direction and virtual temperature estimates in the boundary layer. The Applied Meteorology Unit, staffed by ENSCO, Inc., was tasked by the 45th Weather Squadron, the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and the National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida to investigate methods which will help forecasters assess profiler network data quality when developing forecasts and warnings for critical ground, launch and landing operations. Four routines were evaluated in this study: a consensus time period check a precipitation contamination check, a median filter, and the Weber-Wuertz (WW) algorithm. No routine was able to effectively flag suspect data when used by itself. Therefore, the routines were used in different combinations. An evaluation of all possible combinations revealed two that provided the best results. The precipitation contamination and consensus time routines were used in both combinations. The median filter or WW was used as the final routine in the combinations to flag all other suspect data points.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗

Evaluating GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite. Expected to launch in the mid-2030s, the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) will join international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring of such instruments, including those already being built by international agencies. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. The ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was evaluated globally and regionally. Compared to a control, GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements, and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Using the FSOI metric over CONUS, the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

Evaluating GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite. Expected to launch in the mid-2030s, the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) will join international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring of such instruments, including those already being built by international agencies. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. The ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was evaluated globally and regionally. Compared to a control, GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements, and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Using the FSOI metric over CONUS, the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

Post LANDSAT D Advanced Concept Evaluation (PLACE)

An outline is given of the mission objectives and requirements, system elements, system concepts, technology requirements and forecasting, and priority analysis for LANDSAT D. User requirements and mission analysis and technological forecasting are emphasized. Mission areas considered include agriculture, range management, forestry, geology, land use, water resources, environmental quality, and disaster assessment.

Source record↗

The MODIS Aerosol Algorithm: Critical Evaluation and Plans for Collection 6

For ten years the MODIS aerosol algorithm has been applied to measured MODIS radiances to produce a continuous set of aerosol products, over land and ocean. The MODIS aerosol products are widely used by the scientific and applied science communities for variety of purposes that span operational air quality forecasting in estimates o[ clear-sky direct radiative effects over ocean and aerosol-cloud interactions. The products undergo continual evaluation, including self-consistency checks and comparisons with highly accurate ground-based instruments. The result of these evaluation exercises is a quantitative understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the retrieval, where and when the products are accurate and the situations where and when accuracy degrades. We intend 10 present results of the most recent critical evaluations including the first comparison of the over ocean products against the shipboard aerosol optical depth measurements of the Marine Aerosol Network (MAN), the demonstration of the lack of sensitivity to size parameter in the over land products and identification of residual problems and regional issues. While the current data set is undergoing evaluation, we are preparing for the next data processing, labeled Collection 6. Collection 6 will include transparent Quality Flags, a 3 km aerosol product and the 500m resolution cloud mask used within the aerosol n:bicvu|. These new products and adjustments to algorithm assumptions should provide users with more options and greater control, as they adapt the product for their own purposes.

Remer, Lorraine↗

SPoRT's Participation in the GOES-R Proving Ground Activity

The next generation geostationary satellite, GOES-R, will carry two new instruments with unique atmospheric and surface observing capabilities, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), to study short-term weather processes. The ABI will bring enhanced multispectral observing capabilities with frequent refresh rates for regional and full disk coverage to geostationary orbit to address many existing and new forecast challenges. The GLM will, for the first time, provide the continuous monitoring of total lightning flashes over a hemispherical region from space. NOAA established the GOES-R Proving Ground activity several years ago to demonstrate the new capabilities of these instruments and to prepare forecasters for their day one use. Proving Ground partners work closely with algorithm developers and the end user community to develop and transition proxy data sets representing GOES-R observing capabilities. This close collaboration helps to maximize refine algorithms leading to the delivery of a product that effectively address a forecast challenge. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has been a participant in the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground activity by developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the SPoRT program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. Participation in the Proving Ground activities extends SPoRT s activities and taps its experience and expertise in diagnostic weather analysis, short-term weather forecasting, and the transition of research and experimental data to operational decision support systems like NAWIPS, AWIPS, AWIPS2, and Google Earth. Recent SPoRT Proving Ground activities supporting the development and use of a pseudo GLM total lightning product and the transition of the AWG s Convective Initiation (CI) product, both of which were available in AWIPS and AWIPS II environments, by forecasters during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment. SPoRT is also providing a suite of SEVIRI and MODIS RGB image products, and a high resolution composite SST product to several National Centers for use in there ongoing demonstration activities. Additionally, SPoRT has involved numerous WFOs in the evaluation of a GOES-MODIS hybrid product which brings ABI-like data sets in front of the forecaster for everyday use. An overview of this activity will be presented at the conference.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

Operational Applications of Satellite Snowcover Observations Project

The ongoing Operational Applications of Satellite Snowcover Observations (OASSO) Project of NASA's Applications Systems Verification Test (ASVT) Program is discussed. The general objectives, organization, and study-area activities of the OASSO program are outlined. It is noted that this part of the ASVT Program is designed to evaluate under operational conditions the overall utility of satellite snowcover observations for stream flow forecasts and will be carried out in four regions centered in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Oregon.

Rango, A.↗

The First Seasat-A Industrial Users Workshop

The purpose of this workshop was to begin the process of definition and development of the SEASAT-A Demonstration Program, leading to the implementation of a set of experiments which would begin during the latter part of 1978 following the launch of SEASAT-A (now scheduled for May 1978). NASA through the SEASAT-A program, has encouraged the planning of cooperative experiments by industry and government agencies that operate in areas of ocean activity that could benefit from improved measurements and forecasts of weather and ocean conditions. The objectives of these experiments are to: (1) evaluate the significance of SEASAT-A data to commercial user organizations; (2) assist in identifying those characteristics of follow-on systems that are important to industrial users; (3) obtain experimental evidence that could be used to refine estimates of the economic potential of an operational system; and (4) begin the technology transfer process to the industrial users.

Hicks, K. W.↗

AVE/VAS experiment: Synoptic summary and preliminary results

The AVE/VAS ground truth field experiment was conducted during the Spring of 1982 severe storms and weather research program. The experiment consisted of acquiring correlative ground truth measurements of rawinsonde data, corresponding to the time and space resolutions of VAS sounding data. The objectives of the AVE/VAS experiment are: (1) to acquire four dimensional data sets of the actual atmospheric structure down to the mesoscale; (2) to provide measurements for quantitative comparisons between ground based and VAS-derived atmospheric parameters; (3) to evaluate the impact of VAS data on diagnostic analysis of structural features and dynamical processes important to the development of mesoscale phenomena; (4) to evaluate the impact of VAS data on numerical model simulations, nowcasting, and other mesoscale forecasting systems.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗

A design study for a three-dimensional display computer terminal for meteorological information

The software developed on this project in FY-84 was put into final form and documented for McIDAS user access. The various users have been asked to utilize the techniques and to provide feedback to the developers. Researchers have received limited feedback to date, but nearly all has been helpful and generally favorable. The stereo display has been used by most of the operational users of McIDAS or its progenies. Specifically, the National Hurricane Center, the National Severe Storm Forecast Center, the National Meteorological Center, and the Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility have all made use of the 4-D display techniques to help evaluate meteorological situations on various occasions.

Suomi, V. E.↗

An evaluation of various forms of VAS retrievals in the analysis of a preconvective environment

VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) radiance data obtained over the continental United States on July 20, 1981 are used to evaluate a variety of VAS retrieval procedures and parameters in the qualitative analysis and forecasting of severe weather events. The particular case analyzed contains two significantly different mesoscale convective events in the central plains. Retrievals of temperature, dewpoint temperature, equivalent potential temperature, total column precipitable water, and lifted index are shown to be physically consistent in space and time and to compare well with available radiosonde data. The analysis of the VAS retrievals identified significant spatial gradients and temporal changes in the thermal and moisture fields, including times and locations between radiosonde observations.

Petersen, R. A.↗

An observing system simulation experiment for the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS)

The present observing system-simulation experiments evaluate the potential of a Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) instrument for 5-day forecasting, using a primitive-equation multilevel spectral global circulation model. A 55-deg-inclined and a 98-deg sun-synchronous orbit are examined, by adding LAWS wind profiles into a global 4D data-assimilation system, and comparing both the analyses and forecasts to a control experiment. The 4D data-assimilation system consists of a multivariate optimum interpolation analysis and a nonlinear, normal-mode intialization, using the aforementioned global circulation model.

Rohaly, G. D.↗

The Impact of Horizontal and Temporal Resolution on Convection and Precipitation with High-Resolution GEOS-5

Using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 with the cubed-sphere finite-volume dynamical core, the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on cloud properties will be evaluated. There are indications from examining convective cluster development in high resolution GEOS-5 forecasts that the temporal resolution within the model may playas significant a role as horizontal resolution. Comparing modeled convective cloud clusters versus satellite observations of brightness temperature, we have found that improved. temporal resolution in GEOS-S accounts for a significant portion of the improvements in the statistical distribution of convective cloud clusters. Using satellite simulators in GEOS-S we will compare the cloud optical properties of GEOS-S at various spatial and temporal resolutions with those observed from MODIS. The potential impact of these results on tropical cyclone formation and intensity will be examined as well.

Putman, William P.↗

Analysis of Atmospheric Conditions Responsible for an Ozone Exceedance Event in Southeast Virginia on June 15, 2022

On June 15, 2022, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality monitoring site at Suffolk/Holland, a rural site in southeast Virginia, recorded its first ozone exceedance since 2016. An ozone exceedance day occurs when the daily maximum 8-hour average surface ozone concentration is greater than 70 ppb. On this day, it was 75 ppb. This event is also noteworthy due to the rapid increase in surface ozone between 6 am and 9 am EDT as well as the hourly maximum ozone concentration of 82 ppb that was measured at 1 pm EDT. In this analysis, we utilize various observational and model data to determine the atmospheric conditions responsible for this ozone exceedance event. The analysis is conducted in two parts: (1) an evaluation of the accuracy of the GEOS-CF and WRF-Chem model forecasts and (2) an investigation of the mechanisms responsible for the high surface ozone at the Virginia DEQ Suffolk/Holland monitoring site. Comparisons of model forecasted ozone time-height cross sections with measured ozone by lidars from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) at NASA Langley and NASA Goddard reveal that both models forecasted ozone reasonably well near the surface. Model and observational data reveal that an upper-level ridge was present over much of the eastern United States, with a broad anticyclonic circulation near the surface, resulting in north-northeasterly flow over southeast Virginia. Back trajectory calculations using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) and model data suggest that a low-level plume rich in ozone and precursor species originating from the New York City and New Jersey region was transported along the east coast between June 14 and June 15, arriving in southeast Virginia around 6 am EDT on June 15. In the early morning hours, this plume mixed down to the surface, elevating the background ozone mixing ratio as well as the mixing ratios of several precursor species. Other potential contributions are also explored and discussed. Lastly, the authors note that this work represents the analysis of the authors and not the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.

Daniel B Phoenix↗