Results for “future projects” — Page 21

NASA NTRS2021

On-Board Model Based Fault Diagnosis for CubeSat Attitude Control Subsystem: Flight Data Results

Self-sufficient, robotic spacecraft require estimates of their hardware health state in order to project future system state and plan actions toward achieving mission goals. In this paper, we report on integration of a Model-Based Fault Diagnosis (MBFD) model and reasoning engine into flight software leveraging the Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics (ASTERIA) mission, including test results against captured flight data using the ASTERIA system testbed. Our effort integrated the Model-based Off-Nominal State Identification and Detection (MONSID) model-based reasoning system, developed by Okean Solutions, into ASTERIA flight software using the F Prime software framework. The MONSID engine was supplied with a model of the Blue Canyon Technologies XACT attitude control system (ACS) and tested against flight data and seeded fault tests. While we were unable to conduct an on-board experiment due to the premature loss of ASTERIA, our effort proved the feasibility of on-board model-based fault management, demonstrating reliable and accurate diagnosis using captured data, and further supporting a closed-loop spacecraft autonomy demonstration including autonomous navigation in off-nominal conditions.

Prather, Maurice↗

NASA NTRS2022

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past and Future Climate Change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.

Antarctic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modeling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) specialists within the Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences branch at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modelling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) group at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗

NASA NTRS2022

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past and Future Climate Change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.

East Antarctic Ice Sheet↗

NASA NTRS2023

Interconnected Hydrologic Extreme Drivers and Impacts Depicted By Remote Sensing Data Assimilation

In a changing climate, the likelihood of hydrologic extremes has been increasing as climate change can impact both means and extremes4 of hydrologic cycle processes, potentially resulting in an increased frequency of floods in some regions and decreases in others. In a warming world, the physical processes that affect hydrologic response, such as rain-on snow runoff events, are also changing, such that the seasonality of streamflow has been shifting. The geography of rain-on-snow runoff events is predicted to move from low to high elevations. In addition to floods, there is also potential for an increase in dry extremes in a warming world with increased drought frequency and occurrences in many parts of the world. The increased frequency of drought and heatwave events is expected to have consequences such as escalating crop failures in future projection scenarios1. Thus, the consensus of literature shows that climate change is increasing the magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events, and the human influence in many of these events is substantial.

Timothy M. Lahmers↗

NASA NTRS2022

Testing Mars 2020 Flight Software and Hardware in the Surface System Development Environment

The Mars 2020 (M2020) Perseverance Rover is NASA's most advanced planetary rover mission to date. It includes a novel Sample Caching Subsystem (SCS) which will collect rock cores for possible future return to Earth, as well as an improved mobility system with enhanced autonomous navigation which will enable it to traverse faster and farther than prior rovers. The development of both systems required extensive flight software and flight hardware testing. To support this testing, we developed the Surface System Development Environment (SSDEV) and used it for a wide variety of testing. SSDEV is a bundled subset of M2020 Flight Software which runs on commercially available Linux computers and can be combined with multiple backend options for simulation and hardware control. The SSDEV architecture enabled our teams to perform much more testing of flight software and flight hardware than would have otherwise been possible. As a secondary benefit, the SSDEV-based test campaigns also helped our teams enter the operations phase of the mission with greater readiness of operations products and tools. In this paper, we summarize the motivation for SSDEV, provide an overview of the SSDEV architecture, list several examples of how SSDEV was used, and summarize lessons learned. SSDEV is not a substitute for integrated testing with flight-like avionics, but it enabled substantially more testing than would have otherwise been possible and also provided some unique benefits. We recommend architectures like SSDEV to future projects that need to perform extensive hardware and software testing using a limited set of flight-like avionics.

Wai, Dennis↗

NASA NTRS2023

Importance of Internal Variability for Climate Model Assessment

Benchmarking climate model simulations against observations of the climate is core to the process of building realistic climate models and developing accurate future projections. However, in many cases, models do not match historical observations, particularly on regional scales. If there is a mismatch between modeled and observed climate features, should we necessarily conclude that our models are deficient? Using several illustrative examples, we emphasize that internal variability can easily lead to marked differences between the basic features of the model and observed climate, even when decades of model and observed data are available. This can appear as an apparent failure of models to capture regional trends or changes in global teleconnections, or simulation of extreme events. Despite a large body of literature on the impact of internal variability on climate, this acknowledgment has not yet penetrated many model evaluation activities, particularly for regional climate. We emphasize that using a single or small ensemble of simulations to conclude that a climate model is in error can lead to premature conclusions on model fidelity. A large ensemble of multidecadal simulations is therefore needed to properly sample internal climate variability in order to robustly identify model deficiencies and convincingly demonstrate progress between generations of climate models.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Predictions of Radiation Environment for the NASA BioSentinel Mission

- In this work, models are used to predict the GCR exposure expected for the yeast payload and dosimeter on-board the BioSentinel for a six-month mission after deployment. - The model predictions from this work can be validated against the radiation measurements from the BioSentinel once the data have been transmitted to earth. - The methods used can be valuable for facilitating future projections within existing GCR models for planned deep space missions.

Shirin Rahmanian↗

NASA NTRS2022

Assessing Bare-Ice Albedo Simulated By MAR Over the Greenland Ice Sheet (2000–2021) and Implications for Meltwater Production Estimates

Surface mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has accelerated over the past decades, mainly due to enhanced surface melting and liquid water runoff in response to atmospheric warming. A large portion of runoff from the GrIS originates from exposure of the darker bare ice in the ablation zone when the overlying snow melts, where surface albedo plays a critical role in modulating the energy available for melting. In this regard, it is imperative to understand the processes governing albedo variability to accurately project future mass loss from the GrIS. Bare-ice albedo is spatially and temporally variable and contingent on non-linear feedbacks and the presence of light-absorbing constituents. An assessment of models aiming at simulating albedo variability and associated impacts on meltwater production is crucial for improving our understanding of the processes governing these feedbacks and, in turn, surface mass loss from Greenland. Here, we report the results of a comparison of the bare-ice extent and albedo simulated by the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) with satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the GrIS below 70∘ N. Our findings suggest that MAR overestimates bare-ice albedo by 22.8 % on average in this area during the 2000–2021 period with respect to the estimates obtained from MODIS. Using an energy balance model to parameterize meltwater production, we find this bare-ice albedo bias can lead to an underestimation of total meltwater production from the bare-ice zone below 70∘ N of 42.8 % during the summers of 2000–2021.

albedo↗

NASA NTRS2022

Critical Soil Moisture Thresholds of Plant Water Stress in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Plant water stress occurs at the point when soil moisture (SM) limits transpiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θ crit ). Knowledge of the spatial distribution of θ crit is crucial for future projections of climate and water resources. Here, we use global eddy covariance observations to quantify θcrit and evaporative fraction (EF) regimes. Three canonical variables describe how EF is controlled by SM: the maximum EF (EF max ), θ crit , and slope (S) between EF and SM. We find systematic differences of these three variables across biomes. Variation in θ crit , S, and EFmax is mostly explained by soil texture, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, respectively, as well as vegetation structure. Dryland ecosystems tend to operate at low θ crit and show adaptation to water deficits. The negative relationship between θ crit and S indicates that dryland ecosystems minimize θcrit through mechanisms of sustained SM extraction and transport by xylem. Our results further suggest an optimal adaptation of local EF-SM response that maximizes growing-season evapotranspiration and photosynthesis.

Zheng Fu↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, E FOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for a total anthropogenic CO 2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO 2 ). Also, for 2021, G ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 , with a B IM of −0.6 GtC yr −1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Pierre Friedlingstein↗

NASA NTRS2024

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Biodiversity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Helicopter Pilot Evaluations of the Airborne Collision Avoidance System Xr in a High-Fidelity Motion Simulation

New aircraft and aerial Urban Air Mobility operations require updated technologies to maintain vehicle separation during flight. Specifically, higher-density airspace will need more than traditional air traffic control to keep vehicles well clear of each other and avoid Near Midair Collisions. In response, the Federal Aviation Administration is currently developing the Airborne Collision Avoidance System X (ACAS X) for next-generation air traffic deconfliction, which provides caution-level and warning-level alerts in response to multiple aircraft types. This study recruited six helicopter pilots to fly an electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle model in simulated operations under Visual Flight Rules (VFR). Flights were accomplished using the high-fidelity Vertical Motion Simulator at the NASA Ames Research Center. Participants controlled the vehicle using two side inceptors and foot rudders. The rotorcraft variant of ACAS X (ACAS Xr) was provided for alerting and guidance during traffic conflicts. Pilots used this system while giving feedback to the researchers through questionnaires, debriefs, and other discussions. Variables of interest to the study were phases of flight (i.e., Cruise, Hover, and Approach) and ACAS Xr configurations: The Collision Avoidance System configuration behaves similarly to current commercial traffic systems used for tactical deconfliction in crewed vehicles, and the Detect and Avoid configuration was developed to provide extra, corrective-level guidance for unmanned aircraft systems. Results showed that pilots found the alerting and guidance from ACAS Xr useful, effective, and acceptable for VFR operations. Certain elements, like speed guidance and text banners, were found to be of no use to the pilots. Hover and Approach scenarios were considered the most difficult for ACAS Xr alerting. Reasons for this difficulty were partially due to learning interference (i.e., overcoming previously learned behavior) and partially due to the vehicle model (i.e., NASA’s Lift Plus Cruise design). Still, alerting-based confounds reveal the need for more development for ACAS Xr during these Hover and Approach flight phases. Study caveats and future projects are discussed.

air taxis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Helicopter Pilot Evaluations of the Airborne Collision Avoidance System Xr in a High-Fidelity Motion Simulation

New aircraft and aerial Urban Air Mobility operations require updated technologies to maintain vehicle separation during flight. Specifically, higher-density airspace will need more than traditional air traffic control to keep vehicles well clear of each other and avoid Near Midair Collisions. In response, the Federal Aviation Administration is currently developing the Airborne Collision Avoidance System X (ACAS X) for next-generation air traffic deconfliction, which provides caution-level and warning-level alerts in response to multiple aircraft types. This study recruited six helicopter pilots to fly an electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle model in simulated operations under Visual Flight Rules (VFR). Flights were accomplished using the high-fidelity Vertical Motion Simulator at the NASA Ames Research Center. Participants controlled the vehicle using two side inceptors and foot rudders. The rotorcraft variant of ACAS X (ACAS Xr) was provided for alerting and guidance during traffic conflicts. Pilots used this system while giving feedback to the researchers through questionnaires, debriefs, and other discussions. Variables of interest to the study were phases of flight (i.e., Cruise, Hover, and Approach) and ACAS Xr configurations: The Collision Avoidance System configuration behaves similarly to current commercial traffic systems used for tactical deconfliction in crewed vehicles, and the Detect and Avoid configuration was developed to provide extra, corrective-level guidance for unmanned aircraft systems. Results showed that pilots found the alerting and guidance from ACAS Xr useful, effective, and acceptable for VFR operations. Certain elements, like speed guidance and text banners, were found to be of no use to the pilots. Hover and Approach scenarios were considered the most difficult for ACAS Xr alerting. Reasons for this difficulty were partially due to learning interference (i.e., overcoming previously learned behavior) and partially due to the vehicle model (i.e., NASA’s Lift Plus Cruise design). Still, alerting-based confounds reveal the need for more development for ACAS Xr during these Hover and Approach flight phases. Study caveats and future projects are discussed.

air taxis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy and Carbon Payback Times for Modern U.S. Utility Photovoltaic Systems

Manufacturing and operating a PV system consumes non-renewable energy and produces carbon emissions, as does end-of-life handling when PV systems are eventually decommissioned. To fully account for PV's contribution toward decarbonization, these life cycle impacts must be quantified. A 2023 NREL LCA of utility PV systems in the United States Study show energy payback times between 0.5 and 1.2 years and carbon payback times between 0.8 to 20 years, depending on the system install location. Payback times are affected by the amount of local solar radiation, and carbon payback time is significantly affected by the carbon-intensity of the local grid it offsets, as well as the future projected grid mix for the location it is installed. In an average U.S. location, carbon payback times are less than 2 years.

carbon payback time↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Global Hawk: Project Overview and Future Plans

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Hawk Project became operational in 2009 and began support of Earth science in 2010. Thus far, the NASA Global Hawk has completed three Earth science campaigns and preparations are under way for two extensive multi-year campaigns. One of the most desired performance capabilities of the Global Hawk aircraft is very long endurance: the Global Hawk aircraft can remain airborne longer than almost all other jet-powered aircraft currently flying, and longer than all other aircraft available for airborne science use. This paper describes the NASA Global Hawk system, payload accommodations, concept of operations, and the scientific data-gathering campaigns.

Naftel, J. Chris↗

NASA NTRS1979

Planning and managing future space facility projects

To learn how ground-based personnel of a space project plan and organize their work and how such planning and organizing relate to work outcomes, longitudinal study of the management and execution of the Space Lab Mission Development Test 3 (SMD 3) was performed at NASA Ames Research Center. A view of the problems likely to arise in organizations and some methods of coping with these problems are presented as well as the conclusions and recommendations that pertain strictly to SMD 3 management. Emphasis is placed on the broader context of future space facility projects and additional problems that may be anticipated. A model of management that may be used to facilitate problem solving and communication - management by objectives (MBO) is presented. Some problems of communication and emotion management that MBO does not address directly are considered. Models for promoting mature, constructive and satisfying emotional relationships among group members are discussed.

Sieber, J. E.↗