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At least 379 records · Page 21

Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

Skiles, J. W.↗

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data Using Deep Neural Networks

Subsurface permeability is a key parameter in watershed models that controls the contribution from the subsurface flow to stream flows. Since the permeability is difficult and expensive to measure directly at the spatial extent and resolution required by fully distributed watershed models, estimation through inverse modeling has had a long history in subsurface hydrology. The wide availability of stream surface flow data, compared to groundwater monitoring data, provides a new data source to infer soil and geologic properties using integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic models. As most of the existing methods have shown difficulty in dealing with highly nonlinear inverse problems, we explore the use of deep neural networks for inversion owing to their successes in mapping complex, highly nonlinear relationships. We train various deep neural network (DNN) models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a distributed catchment scale water balance model

The validity of some of the simplifying assumptions in a conceptual water balance model is investigated by comparing simulation results from the conceptual model with simulation results from a three-dimensional physically based numerical model and with field observations. We examine, in particular, assumptions and simplifications related to water table dynamics, vertical soil moisture and pressure head distributions, and subsurface flow contributions to stream discharge. The conceptual model relies on a topographic index to predict saturation excess runoff and on Philip's infiltration equation to predict infiltration excess runoff. The numerical model solves the three-dimensional Richards equation describing flow in variably saturated porous media, and handles seepage face boundaries, infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff production, and soil driven and atmosphere driven surface fluxes. The study catchments (a 7.2 sq km catchment and a 0.64 sq km subcatchment) are located in the North Appalachian ridge and valley region of eastern Pennsylvania. Hydrologic data collected during the MACHYDRO 90 field experiment are used to calibrate the models and to evaluate simulation results. It is found that water table dynamics as predicted by the conceptual model are close to the observations in a shallow water well and therefore, that a linear relationship between a topographic index and the local water table depth is found to be a reasonable assumption for catchment scale modeling. However, the hydraulic equilibrium assumption is not valid for the upper 100 cm layer of the unsaturated zone and a conceptual model that incorporates a root zone is suggested. Furthermore, theoretical subsurface flow characteristics from the conceptual model are found to be different from field observations, numerical simulation results, and theoretical baseflow recession characteristics based on Boussinesq's groundwater equation.

Troch, Peter A.↗

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping the soil microbiome functions shaping wetland methane emissions

Accounting for only 8% of Earth’s land cover, freshwater wetlands remain the foremost contributors to global methane emissions. Yet the microorganisms and processes underlying methane emissions from wetland soils remain poorly understood. Over a five-year period, we surveyed the microbial membership and in situ methane measurements from over 700 samples in one of the most prolific methane-emitting wetlands in the United States. We constructed a catalog of 2,502 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), with more than half of the 70 bacterial and archaeal phyla sampled containing novel lineages. Integration of these data with 133 soil metatranscriptomes provided a genome-resolved view of the biogeochemical specialization and versatility expressed over wetland soil spatial and temporal gradients. Centimeter-scale depth differences best explained patterns of microbial community structure and transcribed functionalities, even more than land cover or temporal information. Moreover, while extended flooding restructured soil redox, this perturbation failed to reconfigure the transcriptional profiles of methane-cycling microorganisms, contrasting with theoretically expected responses to hydrological perturbations. Co-expression analyses, coupled with depth-resolved methane measurements, revealed the metabolisms and trophic structures most predictive of methane hotspots. Mapping the spatiotemporal transcriptional patterns on this compendium of biogeochemically classified soil-derived genomes begins to untangle the microbial carbon, energy, and nutrient processing contributing to wetland methane production.

MAG↗

Global measurements of wind fields using the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) on the Earth Observing System (EOS)

The technology for measuring global wind fields in space by the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) to be flown on the Earth Observing System (EOS) is discussed. Studies initiated by NASA to determine the feasibility of using Doppler lidar from a platform in space to measure the wind globally have shown the general feasibility of the technique and have identified the technological problems that need to be resolved. Among the lidar systems being evaluated, CO2 coherent detection lidar is given special consideration. A comprehensive research program, the Global Backscatter Experiment, has been established to study global distribution of naturally occurring atmospheric aerosols that provide signal return at the wavelengths used by the techniques under consideration. Wind profiles from space will provide essential information for advancing the skill of numerical weather prediction, furthering the present knowledge of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and climate dynamics, and of global biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles.

Fitzjarrald, Daniel E.↗

LAWS (Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder) earth observing system

Wind profiles can be measured from space using current technology. These wind profiles are essential for answering many of the interdisciplinary scientific questions to be addressed by EOS, the Earth Observing System. This report provides guidance for the development of a spaceborne wind sounder, the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS), discussing the current state of the technology and reviewing the scientific rationale for the instrument. Whether obtained globally from the EOS polar platform or in the tropics and subtropics from the Space Station, wind profiles from space will provide essential information for advancing the skill of numerical weather prediction, furthering knowledge of large-scale atmospheric circulation and climate dynamics, and improving understanding of the global biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles. The LAWS Instrument Panel recommends that it be given high priority for new instrument development because of the pressing scientific need and the availability of the necessary technology. LAWS is to measure wind profiles with an accuracy of a few meters per second and to sample at intervals of 100 km horizontally for layers km thick.

Source record↗

Leveraging Pre-storm Soil Moisture Estimates for Enhanced Land Surface Model Calibration in Ungauged Hydrologic Basins

Despite long-standing efforts, hydrologists still lack robust tools for calibrating land surface model (LSM) streamflow estimates within ungauged basins. Using surface soil moisture estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, precipitation observations, and streamflow gauge measurements for 617 medium-scale (200-10,000 km2) basins in the contiguous United States, we measure the temporal (Spearman) rank correlation between antecedent (i.e., pre-storm) surface soil moisture (ASM) and the storm-scale runoff coefficient (RC; the fraction of storm-scale precipitation accumulation converted into streamflow). In humid and semi-humid basins, this rank correlation is shown to be sufficiently strong to allow for the substitution of storm-scale RC observations (available only in basins that are both lightly regulated and gauged) with high-quality ASM values (available quasi-globally from L4_SM) in streamflow calibration procedures. Using this principle, we define a new, basin-wise LSM streamflow calibration approach based on L4_SM alone and successfully apply it to identify LSM configurations that produce a high rank correlation with observed RC. However, since the approach cannot detect RC bias, it is less successful in identifying LSM configurations with low mean-absolute error. Plain Text Summary Accurately forecasting the fraction of rainfall that runs off into streams, as opposed to infiltrates into the soil, is critical for flash-flood prediction, water-resource monitoring, and tracking the transport of nutrients from agricultural fields into local waterways. Such forecasting is typically performed by hydrologic models that attempt to represent the physical processes responsible for surface runoff generation. However, to provide accurate streamflow forecasts, these models typically need to be calibrated against actual streamflow observations. This is problematic given the relatively poor, and declining, global availability of stream gauges. This paper presents a novel model calibration strategy that uses soil moisture from remote sensing and numerical modeling in place of streamflow observations during calibration. This transition has significant practical advantages because, unlike streamflow observations, the soil moisture data are continuously available across space. Our results demonstrate that this new approach can significantly improve hydrologic models within humid and semi-humid basins lacking sufficient ground-based instrumentation for traditional streamflow calibration.

hydrologic models↗

NASA's NMME-Based S2S Hydrologic Forecast System for Food Insecurity Early Warning in Southern Africa

In situ hydrologic monitoring over regions most susceptible to food insecurity can be a challenge in current times due to various socio-economic and political issues in combination with environmental factors such as ongoing famine or drought. Hydrologic monitoring and initializing forecasts based on remotely sensed and analyzed data can contribute significantly to early warning in such regions. Routine hydrologic forecasts, as provided by NASA’s Hydrologic Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS), are a recent addition to early warning systems. A custom instance of NHyFAS, termed FLDAS-Forecast, is used by FEWS NET’s Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). The FLDAS-Forecast’s dynamic forecasting component was originally set up with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) forecast inputs and has been recently expanded with precipitation forecast forcing from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). This paper describes the improvements in seasonal hydrologic forecasts produced with this updated system. Evaluations in this study focus on soil moisture across southern Africa’s growing season. Soil moisture forecasts are benchmarked and evaluated relative to climatology-based forecasts and historic runs, which are driven by observation-based meteorological forcing fields, and they are verified with remotely sensed observations of soil moisture and vegetation. Through multiple deterministic and probabilistic skill assessments, we show that using the larger ensemble of NMME precipitation inputs in the forecast system results in higher quality hydrologic forecasts than are allowed by climatology- or GEOS-only-based forecasts. Further, the near-real-time NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts were able to correctly predict developing drought conditions over southern Africa through late 2019 and into early 2020.

Hydrologic forecasts↗

A novel construct for scaling groundwater–river interactions based on machine-guided hydromorphic classification

Hydrologic exchange between river channels and adjacent subsurface environments is a key process that influences water quality and ecosystem function in river corridors. Predictive numerical models are needed to understand responses of river corridors to environmental change and to support sustainable watershed management. We posit that systematic hydromorphic classification provides a scaling construct that facilitates extrapolation of outputs from local-scale mechanistic models to reduced-order models applicable at reach and watershed scales. This in turn offers the potential to improve large-scale predictions of river corridor hydrobiogeochemical processes. Here we present a new machine-guided hydromorphic classification methodology that addresses the key requirements of this objective, and we demonstrate its application to a segment of the Columbia River in the northwestern United States. The resulting hydromorphic classes form spatially coherent and physically interpretable hydromorphic units that exhibit distinct behaviors in terms of distributions of subsurface residence times (a primary control on critical biogeochemical reactions). This approach forms the basis of ongoing research that is evaluating the formulation of reduced-order models and transferability of results to other river reaches and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bentonite buffer under high temperature: laboratory experiments and coupled process modeling

Abstract. Bentonite buffer in a geological repository will be simultaneously heated from decaying radioactive waste and hydrated from the surrounding host rock, triggering complex and coupled THMC (thermal–hydrological–mechanical–chemical) processes. Understanding the THMC behavior of bentonite-based engineered barrier system (EBS) is key to the evaluation and prediction of its long-term performance. Studies on the THMC process have been focused on conditions under 100 ∘C, as most design concepts impose a thermal limit of 100 ∘C in bentonite. Recently, studies under high-temperature conditions have been conducted to evaluate the possibility of raising the thermal limit and expanding the data/knowledge base to increase the confidence level. In this abstract, we present a series of bench-scale laboratory experiments at high temperatures (up to 200 ∘C) and the corresponding modeling work. Two sets of column tests were conducted, and each set consisted of two test columns: a control column undergoing only hydration (non-heated) and an experiment column experiencing both heating and hydration (heated). During the experiment, frequent X-ray computed tomography (CT) images were collected to provide a 3D visualization of the density distribution and present the spatiotemporal evolution of (1) hydration/dehydration, (2) clay swelling/shrinkage, (3) displacement, and (4) mineral precipitation. The two sets of tests differ with respect to several experimental conditions, such as bentonite type, compacted density and water content, water chemistry, and hydration pressure, but the important difference is that the first set used bentonite powder with a dry density of 1.28 g cm−3, whereas the second set used granulated bentonite (mixture of pellets and powder) with a dry density of 1.45–1.5 g cm−3. In both sets of experiments, a comprehensive post-dismantling characterization of bentonite samples was carried out after the column tests had been running for 1.5 years. Comparing non-heated and heated columns, the temperature gradient led to lower degree of homogenization of bentonite after bentonite became fully saturated; comparing the first and second sets, granulated and powdered bentonite exhibited drastically different hydration behavior. A THM model with a 2D axisymmetric grid system was used to interpret the data from the first set of tests. The model considers the combined impact of saturation, fluid pressure, and porosity change due to swelling/compression on the spatiotemporal distribution of bulk density and movement of the thermocouple modules. Observations from the tests help us understand the early perturbation of bentonite buffer under high temperature, and data from these tests improve the calibration of key constitutive hydrological and mechanical models and, therefore, enhance the modeling capability with respect to calculating the long-term evolution of bentonite buffer.

Zheng, Liange↗

Allometric Scaling of Hyporheic Respiration Across Basins in the Pacific Northwest United States

Abstract Hyporheic zones regulate biogeochemical processes in streams and rivers, but high spatiotemporal heterogeneity makes it difficult to predict how these processes scale from individual reaches to river basins. Recent work applying allometric scaling (i.e., power‐law relationships between size and function) to river networks provides a new paradigm for understanding cumulative hyporheic biogeochemical processes. We used previously published model predictions of reach‐scale hyporheic aerobic respiration to explore patterns in allometric scaling across two climatically divergent basins with differing characteristics in the Pacific Northwest, United States. In the model, hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) regulate hyporheic respiration, so we examined how HEFs might influence allometric scaling of respiration. We found consistent scaling behaviors where HEFs were either very low or very high, but differences between basins when HEFs were moderate. Our findings provide initial model‐generated hypotheses for factors influencing allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration. These hypotheses can be used to optimize new data generation efforts aimed at developing predictive understanding of allometries that can, in turn, be used to scale biogeochemical dynamics across watersheds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Model Prediction with Measurements of Galactic Background Noise at L-Band

The spectral window at L-band (1.413 GHz) is important for passive remote sensing of surface parameters such as soil moisture and sea surface salinity that are needed to understand the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. Radiation from celestial (mostly galactic) sources is strong in this window and an accurate accounting for this background radiation is often needed for calibration. Modem radio astronomy measurements in this spectral window have been converted into a brightness temperature map of the celestial sky at L-band suitable for use in correcting passive measurements. This paper presents a comparison of the background radiation predicted by this map with measurements made with several modem L-band remote sensing radiometers. The agreement validates the map and the procedure for locating the source of down-welling radiation.

LeVine, David M.↗

Soil thickness map at two hillslopes near the pumphouse in the east river watershed, Colorado

The soil thickness maps were created by using a hybrid model-data approach. Field sampling and remote sensing data of the spatial distribution of two hillslopes in the Pump House area in the East River Watershed in the CO., the U.S. The data package includes the geospatial data of the soil thickness maps at two hillslopes near the pumphouse, and the associated remote sensing data, including lidar DEM and a shape file of the boundary of the study area. The data can be viewed in GIS software such as QGIS or ArcGIS desktop. The geospatial data can also be viewed in Python or Matlab. The data were generated for the purpose of modeling surface hydrology and near-surface chemistry. This work shows how to combine sampling data and a process-based model to predict one of the highest uncertainty in the land surface process, the soil thickness.

2D Geospatial Maps↗

Decovalex-2019 (Executive Summary)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. DECOVALEX was initially motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. Later it was realized that these processes also play a critical role in other subsurface engineering activities, such as subsurface CO 2 storage, enhanced geothermal systems, and unconventional oil and gas production through hydraulic fracturing. Research teams from many countries (e.g., Canada, China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, and the United States) various institutions have participated in the DECOVALEX Project over the years, providing a wide range of perspectives and solutions to these complex problems. These institutions represent radioactive waste management organizations, national research institutes, regulatory agencies, universities, as well as industry and consulting groups. The overall aim of DECOVALEX-2019 was to increase the understanding of various thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical processes of importance for radionuclide release and transport from a repository to the biosphere and how they can be described and modelled using mathematical models. The scientific and technical objectives are: to increase the basic understanding of T-H-M-C coupled processes in fractured rocks (crystalline, sedimentary, argillaceous) and buffer materials; to investigate the predictive capabilities of different codes to field experiments and to perform verification of codes; to exchange experimental data, and improve the understanding of the constitutive behavior of crystalline and argillaceous rock masses and buffer materials; and to perform THMC calculations in a performance/safety assessment context.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task B Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. DECOVALEX was initially motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. This document is the final report of Task B which was proposed and coordinated by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. Task B focused mainly on modelling of fault activation experiments (FS experiment) recently performed at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory, Switzerland. The FS experiment explores the coupling between fault reactivation in a clay host rock and the potential-enhanced fluid displacement through a previously low-permeability formation. Based on this experiment, the DECOVALEX-2019 Task B addresses how the change in permeability induced by the fault activation and the resulting fluid flow within the fault can be simulated including the dependence on its mechanical behavior. This will support the understanding of the processes during fault activation itself and it can help to determine consequences for contaminant transport due to potentially created permeable flow paths in otherwise low permeability argillaceous rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task E Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. DECOVALEX was initially motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. Later it was realized that these processes also play a critical role in other subsurface engineering activities, such as subsurface CO 2 storage, enhanced geothermal systems, and unconventional oil and gas production through hydraulic fracturing. Research teams from many countries (e.g., Canada, China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, and the United States) various institutions have participated in the DECOVALEX Project over the years, providing a wide range of perspectives and solutions to these complex problems. These institutions represent radioactive waste management organizations, national research institutes, regulatory agencies, universities, as well as industry and consulting groups. This document is the final report of Task E which was proposed and coordinated by Andra, the National Radioactive Waste Management Agency in France, presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. The purpose of Task E of the DECOVALEX-2019 project is to investigate upscaling THM modelling from small-scale experiments (some cubic meters) to full-scale experiments (some ten cubic meters) and finally to the scale of the waste repository (cubic kilometers). To achieve this aim, the data of two in-situ heating experiments performed by Andra (the French National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) in the Meuse/Haute-Marne Underground Research Laboratory (MHM URL) have formed the basis for the understanding of the THM behavior of the COx at different scales. The first experiment provided the reference values of the THM parameters by means of a calibration exercise and they were used for a blind prediction and an interpretative analysis of the second one.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗