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At least 379 records · Page 21

Concept for Hydrogen-Impregnated Nanofiber/Photovoltaic Cargo Stowage System

A stowage system was conceived that consists of collapsible, reconfigurable stowage bags, rigid polyethylene or metal inserts, stainless-steel hooks, flexible photovoltaic materials, and webbing curtains that provide power generation, thermal stabilization, impact resistance, work/sleeping surfaces, and radiation protection to spaceflight hardware and crew members. Providing materials to the Lunar surface is costly from both a mass and a volume standpoint. Most of the materials that will be transferred to other planets or celestial bodies will not be returned to the Earth. In developing a plan to reconfigure pressurized logistics modules, it was determined that there was a requirement to be able to utilize the interior volume of these modules and transform them from Logistics Modules to Storage/Living Quarters. Logistics-to-living must re-utilize stowage bags and the structures that support them to construct living spaces, partitions, furniture, protective shelters from solar particle events, galactic cosmic radiation, and workspaces. In addition to reusing these logistics items for development of the interior living spaces, these items could also be reused outside the habitable volumes to build berms that protect assets from secondary blast ejecta, to define pathways, to stabilize high traffic areas, to protect against dust contamination, to secure assets to mobility elements, to provide thermal protection, and to create other types of protective shelters for surface experiments. Unique features of this innovation include hydrogen-impregnated nano fibers encapsulated in a polyethelyne coating that act as radiation shielding, flexible solar collection cells that can be connected together with cells from other bags via the webbing walls to create a solar array, and the ability to reconfigure each bag to satisfy multiple needs.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗

Robotic Reconnaissance Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration

Introduction: Robotic reconnaissance missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near- Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations [1]. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Each of these themes were then further subdivided into categories to address specific SKG issues. Robotic Precursor Contributions to SKGs: Robotic reconnaissance missions should be able to address specific aspects related to SKG themes 1 through 4. Theme 1 deals with the identification of human mission targets within the NEA population. The current guideline indicates that human missions to fastspinning, tumbling, or binary asteroids may be too risky to conduct successfully from an operational perspective. However, no spacecraft mission has been to any of these types of NEAs before. Theme 2 addresses the concerns about interacting on the small body surface under microgravity conditions, and how the surface and/or sub-surface properties affect or restrict the interaction for human exploration. The combination of remote sensing instruments and in situ payloads will provide good insight into the asteroid's surface and subsurface properties. SKG theme 3 deals with the environment in and around the small body that may present a nuisance or hazard to any assets operating in close proximity. Impact and surface experiments will help address issues related to particle size, particle longevity, internal structure, and the near-surface mechanical stability of the asteroid. Understanding or constraining these physical characteristics are important for mission planning. Theme 4 addresses the resource potential of the small body. This is a particularly important aspect of human exploration since the identification and utilization of resources is a key aspect for deep space mission architectures to the Martian system (i.e., Phobos and Deimos). Conclusions: Robotic reconnaissance of small bodies can provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs. However, such missions to investigate NEAs can also provide key insights into small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids.

Abell, P. A.↗

Robotic Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration and Planetary Defense

Introduction: Robotic missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration and planetary defense. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. These data can also be applied for gaining an understanding of pertinent small body physical characteristics that would also be beneficial for formulating future impact mitigation procedures. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Of these four SKG themes, the first three have significant overlap with planetary defense considerations. The data obtained from investigations of small body physical characteristics under these three themes can be directly applicable to planetary defense initiatives. Conclusions: Missions to investigate small bodies can address small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids and the Martian moons. In addition, such reconnaissance of small bodies can also provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs.

Abell, Paul A.↗

Contamination Mitigation Strategies for Long Duration Human Spaceflight Missions

Contamination control issues are particularly challenging for long-term human spaceflight and are associated with the search for life, dynamic environmental conditions, human-robotic-environment interaction, sample collection and return, biological processes, waste management, long-term environmental disturbance, etc. These issues impact mission success, human health, planetary protection, and research and discovery. Mitigation and control techniques and strategies may include and integrate long-term environmental monitoring and reporting, contamination control and planetary protection protocols, habitation site design, habitat design, and surface exploration and traverse pathways and area access planning.

enviroment↗

Identifying and Forecasting Potential Biophysical Risk Areas within a Tropical Mangrove Ecosystem Using Multi-Sensor Data

Mangroves are one of the most productive ecosystems known for provisioning of various ecosystem goods and services. They help in sequestering large amounts of carbon, protecting coastline against erosion, and reducing impacts of natural disasters such as hurricanes. Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary in Odisha harbors the second largest mangrove ecosystem in India. This study used Terra, Landsat and Sentinel-1 satellite data for spatio-temporal monitoring of mangrove forest within Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary between 2000 and 2016. Three biophysical parameters were used to assess mangrove ecosystem health: leaf chlorophyll (CHL), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). A long-term analysis of meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature was performed to determine an association between these parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics. The correlation between meteorological parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics enabled forecasting of mangrove health and productivity for year 2050 by incorporating IPCC projected climate data. A historical analysis of land cover maps was also performed using Landsat 5 and 8 data to determine changes in mangrove area estimates in years 1995, 2004 and 2017. There was a decrease in dense mangrove extent with an increase in open mangroves and agricultural area. Despite conservation efforts, the current extent of dense mangrove is projected to decrease up to 10% by the year 2050. All three biophysical characteristics including GPP, LAI and CHL, are projected to experience a net decrease of 7.7%, 20.83% and 25.96% respectively by 2050 compared to the mean annual value in 2016. This study will help the Forest Department, Government of Odisha in managing and taking appropriate decisions for conserving and sustaining the remaining mangrove forest under the changing climate and developmental activities.

Shanti Shrestha↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-18391-DND

Vehicle weight is a primary driver for most NASA missions. Reducing vehicle weight can: - Expand mission capability - Reduce launch costs - Reduce fuel consumption - Systems analysis shows that reducing materials mass by 20% leads to a 30% reduction in launch vehicle gross weight - Same study indicates a 50% reduction in materials mass reduces launch vehicle gross weight by >60%, enables potential single stage to orbit designs - Additional multifunctionality: thermal, radiation protection, sensing capabilities, no corrosion Potential Impact: Produce advanced lightweight structural BNNT composites with higher thermal stability, no corrosion, high toughness, sensing/actuation, and radiation shielding effectiveness.

Cheol Park↗

St. Joseph Peninsula Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Investigate Land Cover, Shoreline Change, and Sediment Transport in St. Joseph Peninsula after Hurricane Michael

T.H. Stone Memorial St. Joseph Peninsula State Park experienced significant damages from Hurricane Michael in 2018, the first Category 5 hurricane to hit the contiguous United States since 1992. These damages included a 300-meter-wide and 10-meter-deep breach in the peninsula, habitat disruption, and a forced closure of over half of the total park area. These damages, coupled with restricted visitor access, resulted in a significant loss of revenue for the park. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to determine the overall impact of Hurricane Michael on land cover and shoreline change by using NASA Earth observations including Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) to analyze sediment transport and climatology to further understand the lasting impacts of hurricanes on the ecosystems of the park. The DEVELOP team’s analyses showed that chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea surface temperature, and precipitation are increasing over time. The sediment transport analysis showed dynamic movement across the peninsula, with the greatest erosion occurring within the bay and along the length of the peninsula. These results are supported by evidence of declining seagrass abundances and seasonal turbidity patterns within those areas. Providing these analyses for the partner allows for a greater understanding of how best to proceed with restoration efforts, which may include rebuilding camping services, expanding fishing recreation, and conserving habitats for endangered species.

Erica Kriner↗

Lightning Strike Distance Distribution Beyond a Preexisting Lightning Area

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) asked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to review the 30-year-old, lightning stand-off distances of 5 nautical miles (nmi) for applicability to today's operations. This was based on the realization that previous lightning strike distance studies did not match how 45 WS issues lightning warnings (Roeder, 2008). The previous lightning distance studies were from the point of origin of the lightning or the average starting location that would tend to be in the core of the thunderstorm. However, the 45 WS issues lightning warnings based on the edge of a preexisting lightning area. Before beginning the AMU project, it took several years to develop a method to calculate a distance distribution beyond a preexisting area (Roeder, 2015). The AMU pulled Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) sensor data from 1/1/2013 to 12/31/2013. This dataset consisted of 37 million individual source data points from the LDAR sensors. Only sources within 50 km north, south, east or west of the LDAR grid center were included in the dataset. This limited the use of LDAR data to that with the greatest accuracy of source detection and increased data processing. Points were grouped into flashes based on spatial and temporal criteria. Based on the sensitivity analysis the AMU performed on the flash clustering algorithm, a time value of 0.3 seconds was found to model flashes adequately. Distance parameters were tested from 1,500 to 7,500 meters (m) in 500 m increments. Distance parameters of both 3,000 m and 4,000 m produced results in the plotting tool that were most representative of the physical behavior of lightning. Thus statistics were gathered for the most representative of these spatial and temporal criteria on the flash size and the polygon expansion distance in order to find the correct data distributions. The best fit curves for the LDAR polygon expansion frequency vs. distances for both the 3 kilometer (km) and 4 km distance threshold values were exponential decay functions and had R2 values of > 0.998, indicating good model fits. The equations of the best fit curves were then used to calculate a desired safety radius of 4 nmi for either 3 km or 4 km distance threshold criteria. The AMU analysis concludes the safe reduction of the 5 nmi lightning warning circles to 4 nmi should improve the operational impact by 36% if based on distance from the center of the property area being protected. If based on the edge of the property being protected, then the reduction is 4.5 nmi to 4 nmi and the operational impact is decreased by 21%. For the 6 nmi lightning warning circles, the recommended 4 nmi stand-off distance will result in a safe reduction of operational impact of 31% if based on the center of the area being protected, or 16% if based on the edge of the property.

Flash clustering algorithm↗

UAS Satellite Earth Station Emission Limits for Terrestrial System Interference Protection

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) will have a major impact on future aviation. Medium and large UA operating at altitudes above 3000 feet will require access to non-segregated, that is, controlled airspace. In order for unmanned aircraft to be integrated into the airspace and operate with other commercial aircraft, a very reliable command and control (C2, a. k. a. control and non-payload communications, (CNPC)) link is required. For operations covering large distances or over remote locations, a beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) CNPC link would need to be implemented through satellite. Significant progress has taken place on several fronts to advance the integration of UAS into controlled airspace, including the recent completion of Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for terrestrial line-of-sight (LOS) UAS command and control (C2) links. The development of MOPS for beyond line-of-sight C2 satellite communication links is underway. Meanwhile the allocation of spectrum for UAS C2 by the International Telecommunications Union Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R) has also progressed. Spectrum for LOS C2 was allocated at the 2012 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-12), and for BLOS C2 an allocation was made at WRC-15, under WRC-15 Resolution 155. Resolution 155, however, does not come into effect until several other actions have been completed. One of these required actions is the identification of a power flux density (pfd) limit on the emissions of UAS Ku-Band satellite communications transmitters reaching the ground. The pfd limit is intended to protect terrestrial systems from harmful interference. WRC-19 is expected to finalize the pfd limit. In preparation for WRC-19, analyses of the required pfd limit are on-going, and supporting activities such as propagation modeling are also planned. This paper provides the status of these activities.

radiofrequency spectrum↗

Handling Emergency Management in [an] Object Oriented Modeling Environment

It has been understood that protection of a nation from extreme disasters is a challenging task. Impacts of extreme disasters on a nation's critical infrastructures, economy and society could be devastating. A protection plan itself would not be sufficient when a disaster strikes. Hence, there is a need for a holistic approach to establish more resilient infrastructures to withstand extreme disasters. A resilient infrastructure can be defined as a system or facility that is able to withstand damage, but if affected, can be readily and cost-effectively restored. The key issue to establish resilient infrastructures is to incorporate existing protection plans with comprehensive preparedness actions to respond, recover and restore as quickly as possible, and to minimize extreme disaster impacts. Although national organizations will respond to a disaster, extreme disasters need to be handled mostly by local emergency management departments. Since emergency management departments have to deal with complex systems, they have to have a manageable plan and efficient organizational structures to coordinate all these systems. A strong organizational structure is the key in responding fast before and during disasters, and recovering quickly after disasters. In this study, the entire emergency management is viewed as an enterprise and modelled through enterprise management approach. Managing an enterprise or a large complex system is a very challenging task. It is critical for an enterprise to respond to challenges in a timely manner with quick decision making. This study addresses the problem of handling emergency management at regional level in an object oriented modelling environment developed by use of TopEase software. Emergency Operation Plan of the City of Hampton, Virginia, has been incorporated into TopEase for analysis. The methodology used in this study has been supported by a case study on critical infrastructure resiliency in Hampton Roads.

Tokgoz, Berna Eren↗

Does the sedimentology of the Chelmsford formation provide evidence for a meteorite impact origin of the Sudbury structure?

The post-'event' fill of the Paleoproterozoic Sudbury Basin consists of at least 600 m of deep-water mudrocks of the Onwatin Formation, overlain by 850 m of lithic-arkosic muddy sandstones in the Chelmsford Formation. While mudstones of the Onwatin reflect deposition in a deep-water, anoxic setting, there is no clear evidence of local breccias, conglomerates, or sand bodies to support the concept that the basin was protected by the steep walls of an impact crater. Carbonates in the basal, Vermillion Member are of sedimentary exhalitive origin and were not derived from a shallow marine shelf. Turbidites in the Chelmsford Formation show no evidence of centripetal fill as might be expected from a restricted, circular basin. They appear to have been emplaced by predominantly southwesterly flowing turbidity currents, which showed little to no deflection along the depositional axis of an elongate foreland basin that developed in front of the rising Penokean mountain chain. While the presence of minor sandstone-filled fractures in parts of the Chelmsford Formation suggests the presence of north- or south-directed paleoslopes, no evidence is seen to support the existence of subbasins or a central uplift within the Sudbury Basin. While tilt-corrected paleocurrent orientations are ambiguous, due to postdepositional shortening of strata during cleavage development, strain correction of the observations makes little difference to the net, south-southwest-directed paleoflow.

Long, D. G. F.↗

Combined shipping protection and impingement detection wrap

A packaging material comprised of a gas-impermeable base layer, an indicator layer, and a gas-impermeable top layer is disclosed. The top layer is selected to rupture upon experiencing an impingement or impact that exceeds a predetermined threshold. The indicator layer is configured to change visual appearance upon exposure to ambient air. The top layer further may be configured into a plurality of cells, with each cell filled with a gas that is inert with respect to the indicator layer. The cells may be of a size and shape configured to indicate the location and shape of an impingement or impact, to alert a recipient of an item protected by the packaging material of an area that may require further inspection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tailoring Laminates For Protection Against Projectiles

Fiber/matrix composite laminates developed to protect military land vehicles against projectiles and spacecraft against impacts by micrometeroids. Although types, sizes, and velocities of expected incident objects differ between terrestrial and outer-space cases, general protection problems and solutions exhibit some common features. Configurations of fibers and matrices optimized with respect to protection, bulk, and weight, to obtain shield that breaks rapidly moving incident object into harmless smaller, more-slowly-moving pieces, containing debris, vaporizes debris, and/or otherwise absorbs kinetic energy of object to prevent harm to vehicle and occupants.

Gassner, John J.↗

Acoustic Emission Analysis of Shuttle Thermal Protection System

Acoustic emission (AE) signals generated from projectile impacts on reinforced and advanced carbon/carbon (RCC and ACC) panels, fired from a compressed-gas gun, identify the type and severity of damage sustained by the target. This type of testing is vital in providing the required "return to flight" (RTF) data needed to ensure continued and safe operation of NASA's Space Shuttle fleet. The gas gun at Kennedy Space Center is capable of propelling 12-inch by 3-inch cylinders of external tank (ET) foam at exit velocities exceeding 1,000 feet per second. Conventional AE analysis techniques require time domain processing of impulse data, along with amplitude distribution analysis. It is well known that identical source excitations can produce a wide range of AE signals amplitudes. In order to satisfy RTF goals, it is necessary to identify impact energy levels above and below damage thresholds. Spectral analysis techniques involving joint time frequency analysis (JTFA) are used to reinforce time domain AE analysis. JTFA analysis of the AE signals consists of short-time Fourier transforms (STFT) and the Huang-Hilbert transform (HHT). The HHT provides a very good measure of the instantaneous frequency of impulse events dominated by a single component. Identifying failure modes and cracking of fibers from flexural and/or extensional mode acoustic signals will help support in-flight as well as postflight impact analysis.

Lane, John↗

Comparison of Hard Surface and Soft Soil Impact Performance of a Crashworthy Composite Fuselage Concept

A comparison of the soft soil and hard surface impact performance of a crashworthy composite fuselage concept has been performed. Specifically, comparisons of the peak acceleration values, pulse duration, and onset rate at specific locations on the fuselage were evaluated. In a prior research program, the composite fuselage section was impacted at 25 feet per second onto concrete at the Impact Dynamics Research Facility (IDRF) at NASA Langley Research Center. A soft soil test was conducted at the same impact velocity as a part of the NRTC/RITA Crashworthy and Energy Absorbing Structures project. In addition to comparisons of soft soil and hard surface test results, an MSC. Dytran dynamic finite element model was developed to evaluate the test analysis correlation. In addition, modeling parameters and techniques affecting test analysis correlation are discussed. Once correlated, the analytical methodology will be used in follow-on work to evaluate the specific energy absorption of various subfloor concepts for improved crash protection during hard surface and soft soil impacts.

Sareen, Ashish K.↗

Chapter 14: Sustainable Biomass Conversion Process Assessment

Process intensification and integration for sustainable design play an essential role in addressing and alleviating severe sustainable development challenges. It is prudent to evaluate a process design in its early stage development to ensure the process can achieve sustainability goals. The primary goal of a sustainability evaluation is to assess the impact of systems on areas sought to be protected and maintained over time, such as human well-being and ecosystems (Schaubroeck, T. and Rugani, B. (2017). A revision of what life cycle sustainability assessment should entail: towards modeling the net impact on human well-being. Journal of Industrial Ecology 21 (6): 1464-1477). Parenthetically, sustainable process design to convert biomass to fuels and chemicals plays an integral part in the bioeconomy sustainability. It is recognized that the integration of sustainability in process design is core to the mission in developing renewable fuels and should be considered a necessary practice in biorefinery design. This study demonstrates the use of Gauging Reaction Effectiveness for ENvironmental Sustainability of Chemistries with a multi-Objective Process Evaluator (GREENSCOPE) as a tool to help track progress on process sustainability performance attributed to conversion improvement. With the incorporation of a wide range of indicators, GREENSCOPE captures the multi-dimensional aspect of the process design and operation. As opposed to conventional techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (in which the focuses are limited to economic and environmental aspects), GREENSCOPE enables the consideration of process intensification and integration for sustainable design. A high-octane gasoline production from woody biomass feedstock is used as a case study to demonstrate the approach.

biomass↗

Development of scalable design optimization parameters for bi-component protective systems

Bi-component protection-systems need to withstand a variety of extreme loading conditions such as high-velocity projectile impact to shock and blast mitigation. The large number of parameters at each stage of bi-component protection system design process results in a near-infinite number of possible variables for optimization. The aim of this project is to identify the scaling laws linking material and geometric scales of the problem to the final impact performance, further including the effects of wave propagation/interaction and inter-component bonding. Specifically, the impact dynamics for different optimal projectile/target density ratios and relative component mass fractions are quantified for bonded ceramic/titanium alloy systems. The impact behavior such as wave mechanics and damage propagation within the target system is characterized and quantified via digital image correlation or via x-ray phase-contrast imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Shuttle Debris Impact Tool Assessment Using the Modern Design of Experiments

Computational tools have been developed to estimate thermal and mechanical reentry loads experienced by the Space Shuttle Orbiter as the result of cavities in the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Such cavities can be caused by impact from ice or insulating foam debris shed from the External Tank (ET) on liftoff. The reentry loads depend on cavity geometry and certain Shuttle state variables, among other factors. Certain simplifying assumptions have been made in the tool development about the cavity geometry variables. For example, the cavities are all modeled as shoeboxes , with rectangular cross-sections and planar walls. So an actual cavity is typically approximated with an idealized cavity described in terms of its length, width, and depth, as well as its entry angle, exit angle, and side angles (assumed to be the same for both sides). As part of a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in reentry loads estimated by the debris impact assessment tools, an effort has been initiated to quantify the component of the uncertainty that is due to imperfect geometry specifications for the debris impact cavities. The approach is to compute predicted loads for a set of geometry factor combinations sufficient to develop polynomial approximations to the complex, nonparametric underlying computational models. Such polynomial models are continuous and feature estimable, continuous derivatives, conditions that facilitate the propagation of independent variable errors. As an additional benefit, once the polynomial models have been developed, they require fewer computational resources to execute than the underlying finite element and computational fluid dynamics codes, and can generate reentry loads estimates in significantly less time. This provides a practical screening capability, in which a large number of debris impact cavities can be quickly classified either as harmless, or subject to additional analysis with the more comprehensive underlying computational tools. The polynomial models also provide useful insights into the sensitivity of reentry loads to various cavity geometry variables, and reveal complex interactions among those variables that indicate how the sensitivity of one variable depends on the level of one or more other variables. For example, the effect of cavity length on certain reentry loads depends on the depth of the cavity. Such interactions are clearly displayed in the polynomial response models.

DeLoach, R.↗