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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Thermal Predictions to Uncertain Surface Tension Data in Laser Additive Manufacturing

To understand the process-microstructure relationships in additive manufacturing (AM), it is necessary to predict the solidification characteristics in the melt pool. This study investigates the influence of Marangoni driven fluid flow on the predicted melt pool geometry and solidification conditions using a continuum finite volume model. A calibrated laser absorptivity was determined by comparing the model predictions (neglecting fluid flow) against melt pool dimensions obtained from single laser melt experiments on a nickel super alloy 625 (IN625) plate. Using this calibrated efficiency, predicted melt pool geometries agree well with experiments across a range of process conditions. When fluid mechanics is considered, a surface tension gradient recommended for IN625 tends to overpredict the influence of convective heat transfer, but the use of an intermediate value reported from experimental measurements of a similar nickel super alloy produces excellent experimental agreement. Despite its significant effect on the melt pool geometry predictions, fluid flow was found to have a small effect on the predicted solidification conditions compared to processing conditions. We find that this result suggests that under certain circumstances, a model only considering conductive heat transfer is sufficient for approximating process-microstructure relationships in laser AM. Extending the model to multiple laser passes further showed that fluid flow also has a small effect on the solidification conditions compared to the transient variations in the process. Furthermore, limitations of the current model and areas of improvement, including uncertainties associated with the phenomenological model inputs are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

SNIa Cosmology Analysis Results from Simulated LSST Images: From Difference Imaging to Constraints on Dark Energy

Abstract The Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to process ∼10 6 transient detections per night. For precision measurements of cosmological parameters and rates, it is critical to understand the detection efficiency, magnitude limits, artifact contamination levels, and biases in the selection and photometry. Here we rigorously test the LSST Difference Image Analysis (DIA) pipeline using simulated images from the Rubin Observatory LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration Data Challenge (DC2) simulation for the Wide-Fast-Deep survey area. DC2 is the first large-scale (300 deg 2 ) image simulation of a transient survey that includes realistic cadence, variable observing conditions, and CCD image artifacts. We analyze ∼15 deg 2 of DC2 over a 5 yr time span in which artificial point sources from Type Ia supernova (SNIa) light curves have been overlaid onto the images. The magnitude limits per filter are u = 23.66 mag, g = 24.69 mag, r = 24.06 mag, i = 23.45 mag, z = 22.54 mag, and y = 21.62 mag. The artifact contamination levels are ∼90% of all detections, corresponding to ∼1000 artifacts deg –2 in g band, and falling to 300 deg –2 in y band. The photometry has biases <1% for magnitudes 19.5 < m < 23. Our DIA performance on simulated images is similar to that of the Dark Energy Survey difference-imaging pipeline on real images. We also characterize DC2 image properties to produce catalog-level simulations needed for distance bias corrections. We find good agreement between DC2 data and simulations for distributions of signal-to-noise ratio, redshift, and fitted light-curve properties. Applying a realistic SNIa cosmology analysis for redshifts z < 1, we recover the input cosmology parameters to within statistical uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1981

Multivariable feedback design - Concepts for a classical/modern synthesis

This paper presents a practical design perspective on multivariable feedback control problems. It reviews the basic issue - feedback design in the face of uncertainties - and generalizes known single-input, single-output (SISO) statements and constraints of the design problem to multiinput, multioutput (MIMO) cases. Two major MIMO design approaches are then evaluated in the context of these results.

Doyle, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

NASCAP simulation of PIX 2 experiments

The latest version of the NASCAP/LEO digital computer code used to simulate the PIX 2 experiment is discussed. NASCAP is a finite-element code and previous versions were restricted to a single fixed mesh size. As a consequence the resolution was dictated by the largest physical dimension to be modeled. The latest version of NASCAP/LEO can subdivide selected regions. This permitted the modeling of the overall Delta launch vehicle in the primary computational grid at a coarse resolution, with subdivided regions at finer resolution being used to pick up the details of the experiment module configuration. Langmuir probe data from the flight were used to estimate the space plasma density and temperature and the Delta ground potential relative to the space plasma. This information is needed for input to NASCAP. Because of the uncertainty or variability in the values of these parameters, it was necessary to explore a range around the nominal value in order to determine the variation in current collection. The flight data from PIX 2 were also compared with the results of the NASCAP simulation.

Roche, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A classification procedure for the effective management of changes during the maintenance process

During software operation, maintainers are often faced with numerous change requests. Given available resources such as effort and calendar time, changes, if approved, have to be planned to fit within budget and schedule constraints. In this paper, we address the issue of assessing the difficulty of a change based on known or predictable data. This paper should be considered as a first step towards the construction of customized economic models for maintainers. In it, we propose a modeling approach, based on regular statistical techniques, that can be used in a variety of software maintenance environments. The approach can be easily automated, and is simple for people with limited statistical experience to use. Moreover, it deals effectively with the uncertainty usually associated with both model inputs and outputs. The modeling approach is validated on a data set provided by NASA/GSFC which shows it was effective in classifying changes with respect to the effort involved in implementing them. Other advantages of the approach are discussed along with additional steps to improve the results.

Briand, Lionel C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Minimizing structural vibrations with Input Shaping (TM)

A new method for commanding machines to move with increased dynamic performance was developed. This method is an enhanced version of input shaping, a patented vibration suppression algorithm. This technique intercepts a command input to a system command that moves the mechanical system with increased performance and reduced residual vibration. This document describes many advanced methods for generating highly optimized shaping sequences which are tuned to particular systems. The shaping sequence is important because it determines the trade off between move/settle time of the system and the insensitivity of the input shaping algorithm to variations or uncertainties in the machine which can be controlled. For example, a system with a 5 Hz resonance that takes 1 second to settle can be improved to settle instantaneously using a 0.2 shaping sequence (thus improving settle time by a factor of 5). This system could vary by plus or minus 15% in its natural frequency and still have no apparent vibration. However, the same system shaped with a 0.3 second shaping sequence could tolerate plus or minus 40% or more variation in natural frequency. This document describes how to generate sequences that maximize performance, sequences that maximize insensitivity, and sequences that trade off between the two. Several software tools are documented and included.

Singhose, Bill↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage into a Land Surface Model: Evaluation 1 and Potential Value for Drought Monitoring in Western and Central Europe

A land surface model s ability to simulate states (e.g., soil moisture) and fluxes (e.g., runoff) is limited by uncertainties in meteorological forcing and parameter inputs as well as inadequacies in model physics. In this study, anomalies of terrestrial water storage (TWS) observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model in western and central Europe for a 7-year period, using a previously developed ensemble Kalman smoother. GRACE data assimilation led to improved runoff correlations with gauge data in 17 out of 18 hydrological basins, even in basins smaller than the effective resolution of GRACE. Improvements in root zone soil moisture were less conclusive, partly due to the shortness of the in situ data record. In addition to improving temporal correlations, GRACE data assimilation also reduced increasing trends in simulated monthly TWS and runoff associated with increasing rates of precipitation. GRACE assimilated root zone soil moisture and TWS fields exhibited significant changes in their dryness rankings relative to those without data assimilation, suggesting that GRACE data assimilation could have a substantial impact on drought monitoring. Signals of drought in GRACE TWS correlated well with MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in most areas. Although they detected the same droughts during warm seasons, drought signatures in GRACE derived TWS exhibited greater persistence than those in NDVI throughout all seasons, in part due to limitations associated with the seasonality of vegetation.

Li, Bailing↗
NASA NTRS1992

Constraints on the age and evolution of the Galaxy from the white dwarf luminosity function

The white dwarf disk luminosity function is explored using observational results of Liebert et al. (1988, 1989) as a template for comparison, and the cooling curves of Wood (1990, 1991) as the input basis functions for the integration. The star formation rate over the history of the Galaxy is found to be constant to within an order of magnitude, and the disk age lies in the range 6-13.5 Gyr, where roughly 40 percent of the uncertainty is due to the observational uncertainties. Using the best current estimates as inputs to the integration, the disk ages range from 7.5 to 11 Gyr, i.e., they are substantially younger than most estimates for the halo globular clusters but in reasonable agreement with those for the disk globular clusters and open clusters. The ages of these differing populations, taken together, are consistent with the pressure-supported collapse models of early spiral Galactic evolution.

Wood, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fuel performance uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in the presence of epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainties

Fuel performance modeling and simulation includes many uncertain parameters from models to boundary conditions, manufacturing parameters and material properties. These parameters exhibit large uncertainties and can have an epistemic or aleatoric nature, something that renders fuel performance code-to-code and code-to-measurements comparisons for complex phenomena such as the pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) very challenging. Additionally, PCMI and other complex phenomena found in fuel performance modeling and simulation induce strong discontinuities and non-linearities that can render difficult to extract meaningful conclusions form uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) studies. In this work, we develop and apply a consistent treatment of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties for both UQ and SA in fuel performance calculations and use historical benchmark-quality measurement data to demonstrate it. More specifically, the developed methodology is applied to the OECD/NEA Multi-physics Pellet Cladding Mechanical Interaction Validation benchmark. A cold ramp test leading to PCMI is modeled. Two measured quantities of interest are considered: the cladding axial elongation during the irradiations and the cladding outer diameter after the cold ramp. The fuel performance code used to perform the simulation is FAST. The developed methodology involves various steps including a Morris screening to decrease the number of uncertain inputs, a nested loop approach for propagating the epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainties, and a global SA using Sobol indices. The obtained results indicate that the fuel and cladding thermal conductivities as well as the cladding outer diameter uncertainties are the three inputs having the largest impact on the measured quantities. More importantly, it was found that the epistemic uncertainties can have a significant impact on the measured quantities and can affect the outcome of the global sensitivity analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Entry dynamics of space shuttle orbiter with lateral-directional stability and control uncertainties at supersonic and hypersonic speeds

A six-degree-of-freedom simulation analysis was conducted to examine the effects of the lateral-directional static aerodynamic stability and control uncertainties on the performance of the automatic (no manual inputs) entry-guidance and control systems of the space shuttle orbiter. To establish the acceptable boundaries of the uncertainties, the static aerodynamic characteristics were varied either by applying a multiplier to the aerodynamic parameter or by adding an increment. Control-system modifications were identified that decrease the sensitivity to off-nominal aerodynamics. With these modifications, the acceptable aerodynamic boundaries were determined.

Stone, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Performance Optimizing Multi-Objective Adaptive Control with Time-Varying Model Reference Modification

This paper presents a new adaptive control approach that involves a performance optimization objective. The problem is cast as a multi-objective optimal control. The control synthesis involves the design of a performance optimizing controller from a subset of control inputs. The effect of the performance optimizing controller is to introduce an uncertainty into the system that can degrade tracking of the reference model. An adaptive controller from the remaining control inputs is designed to reduce the effect of the uncertainty while maintaining a notion of performance optimization in the adaptive control system.

Adaptive Control↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constellation's best estimate alternate source term methodology overview

Safety analyses for a nuclear power plants need to consider postulated accidents that results in at risk of accidental release of radiation. The regulations require plant specific safety analysis reports to include an evaluation of the requirements of 10CFR50.67. Such a safety analysis report mandates limits such that calculated radiological consequences relative to certain dose locations do not exceed a total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) limits following a postulated release of radioactivity. Calculations are performed to estimate the radiological consequences, in terms of dose, to people and equipment to ensure the estimated doses are within the prescribed limits. Analysis should demonstrate, with reasonable assurance, that these prescribed limits are complied with. Conventional methodologies utilize conservative approaches to address lack of uncertainty quantification in the utilized approaches, methods, and/or inputs. These built-in excess conservatisms often result in compounding effects and hence overly conservative results in the estimated radiological consequences, which leads to inaccurate margin evaluation for operation and accident mitigation. Therefore, evaluating accurate dose consequences is needed for both operational and safety reasons. The research documented in this paper provides an overview of Constellation's Best Estimate Alternate Source Term (BEAST) Methodology. BEAST methodology relies upon the use of realistic yet bounding input distributions for key analysis parameters, which replaces use of conservative deterministic singular inputs that bound overall analysis domain. This approach enables evaluating a more accurate accident analysis response, while enabling a bounding licensing basis envelope via more accurate quantification of uncertainty in the application. Therefore, built-in margin for a given scenario is more accurately evaluated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2019

A NICER view of PSR J0030+0451: Implications for the Dense Matter Equation of State

Both the mass and radius of the millisecond pulsar PSRJ0030+0451 have been inferred via pulse-profile modeling of X-ray data obtained by NASA’s Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission. In this Letter we study the implications of the mass–radius inference reported for this source by Riley et al. for the dense matter equation of state (EoS), in the context of prior information from nuclear physics at low densities. Using a Bayesian framework we infer central densities and EoS properties for two choices of high-density extensions: a piecewise-polytropic model and a model based on assumptions of the speed of sound in dense matter. Around nuclear saturation density these extensions are matched to an EoS uncertainty band obtained from calculations based on chiral effective field theory interactions, which provide a realistic description of atomic nuclei as well as empirical nuclear matter properties within uncertainties. We further constrain EoS expectations with input from the current highest measured pulsar mass; together, these constraints offer a narrow Bayesian prior informed by theory as well as laboratory and astrophysical measurements. The NICER mass–radius likelihood function derived by Riley et al. using pulse-profile modeling is consistent with the highest-density region of this prior. The present relatively large uncertainties on mass and radius for PSR J0030+0451 offer, however, only a weak posterior information gain over the prior. We explore the sensitivity to the inferred geometry of the heated regions that give rise to the pulsed emission, and find a small increase in posterior gain for an alternative (but less preferred) model. Lastly, we investigate the hypothetical scenario of increasing the NICER exposure time for PSRJ0030+0451.

G Raaijmakers↗
NASA NTRS1988

Solar models, neutrino experiments, and helioseismology

The event rates and their recognized uncertainties are calculated for 11 solar neutrino experiments using accurate solar models. These models are also used to evaluate the frequency spectrum of the p and g oscillations modes of the sun. It is shown that the discrepancy between the predicted and observed event rates in the Cl-37 and Kamiokande II experiments cannot be explained by a 'likely' fluctuation in input parameters with the best estimates and uncertainties given in the present study. It is suggested that, whatever the correct solution to the solar neutrino problem, it is unlikely to be a 'trival' error.

Bahcall, John N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Kilonova Light Curves: Dependence on Nuclear Inputs

The mergers of binary neutron stars, as well as black hole–neutron star systems, are expected to produce an electromagnetic counterpart that can be analyzed to infer the element synthesis that occurred in these events. We investigate one source of uncertainties pertinent to lanthanide-rich outflows: the nuclear inputs to rapid neutron capture nucleosynthesis calculations. We begin by examining 32 different combinations of nuclear inputs: eight mass models, two types of spontaneous fission rates, and two types of fission daughter product distributions. We find that such nuclear physics uncertainties typically generate at least one order of magnitude uncertainty in key quantities such as the nuclear heating (one and a half orders of magnitude at 1 day post-merger), the bolometric luminosity (one order of magnitude at 5 days post-merger), and the inferred mass of material from the bolometric luminosity (factor of 8 when considering the 8–10 day region). Since particular nuclear processes are critical for determining the electromagnetic signal, we provide tables of key nuclei undergoing β-decay, α-decay, and spontaneous fission important for heating at different times, identifying decays that are common among the many nuclear input combinations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model to inform the expansion of hydrogen distribution infrastructure

A growing hydrogen economy requires new hydrogen distribution infrastructure to link geographically distributed hubs of supply and demand. The Hydrogen Optimization with Deployment of Infrastructure (HOwDI) Model helps meet this requirement. The model is a spatially resolved optimization framework that determines location-specific hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure to cost-optimally meet a specified location-based demand. While these results are useful in understanding hydrogen infrastructure development, there is uncertainty in some costs that the model uses for inputs. Thus, the project team took the modeling effort a step further and developed a Monte Carlo methodology to help manage uncertainties. Seven scenarios were run using existing infrastructure and new demand in Texas exploring different policy and tax approaches. The inclusion of tax credits increased the percentage of runs that could deliver hydrogen at <$\$4$ /kg from 31% to 77% and decreased the average dispensed cost from $\$4.35$ /kg to $\$3.55$ /kg. However, even with tax credits there are still some runs where unabated SMR is deployed to meet new demand as the low-carbon production options are not competitive. Every scenario, except for the zero-carbon scenario (without tax credits), resulted in at least 20% of the runs meeting the $\$4$ /kg dispensed fuel cost target. This indicates that multiple pathways exist to deliver $\$4$ /kg hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗