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NASA NTRS2013

Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite Observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

surface temperature↗

NASA NTRS1998

Modeling Climate-Biosphere Interactions in the Boreal Forest

The overall goal of this BOREAS Program was to develop, test, and apply a model of the carbon balance of boreal forest sites with a significant groundcover component (moss or lichen). The basic question addressed with this model was: What is the sensitivity of the boreal forest carbon balance to weather variability? More specifically: What are the differences in the sensitivities of carbon gains (photosynthesis) and carbon losses (respiration) of the various components of the ecosystem? Are there different seasonalities to their sensitivities (e.g., warmer springs will have one effect, warmer summers a different effect)? What are the effects of different patterns of successive weather years (wet/dry, warm/cool)? What, for example, would be the difference in effects of two "warmer than normal" months-one with each day warmer than normal, and the other with three normal weeks and one very hot week? Due to weather variability, how "noisy" will any carbon flux or carbon pool signal be that we might use to try to detect change? The project resulted in the development of a new boreal forest ecosystem model. This model was the first model in the BOREAS project to look closely at the role of mosses in the ecosystem carbon balance, and also was the first model in the BOREAS project to look closely at interannual variability in carbon fluxes. Along with the work of many other groups, TE-19 modeling analysis pointed to the need for a second, longer field season in 1996, with particular focus on the spring and fall transitions and on ground vegetation. BOREAS groups TE-19 (Frolking), TGB-1 (Crill) & TGB-3 (Moore & Roulet) analyzed BOREAS data and other published and unpublished data to develop a relationship between peatland ecosystem productivity and incoming radiation, which is quite distinct from the upland ecosystem relationships observed in other studies.

Frolking, Steve↗

NASA NTRS2001

Large Scale Characteristics and Variability of the Global Sea Ice Cover

More than two decades of satellite passive microwave data are used to study and evaluate the large scale characteristics and the changing state of the sea ice cover in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Satellite data provide day/night almost continuous observation of global sea ice cover thereby enabling quantitative variability studies at various time scales. Despite coarse sensor resolution, spatial detail is provided through the use of sea ice concentrations which are derived using an algorithm that determines the fraction of ice and open water within each satellite footprint. Large seasonal fluctuations in the extent are apparent with those of the Southern Hemisphere having larger amplitudes but less symmetrical seasonal distribution than those of the Northern Hemisphere. The large scale interannual variability of the ice cover has been evaluated globally as well as regionally and in the Northern Hemisphere, the yearly anomaly maps show a predominance of positive values in the 1980s and negative values in the 1990s. Regression analysis show that the ice extent and ice area are on a decline at the rate of -2.0 +/- 0.5% and -3.1 +/- 0.3% per decade, respectively, in the Northern Hemisphere but there are regions like the Bering Sea with positive trends. What is intriguing, however, is that the perennial sea ice cover has been declining at a much faster rate than for the entire hemisphere, i.e., 6.7 +/- 2.4% and 8.3 +/- 2.4 % per decade for ice extent and ice area, respectively. The perennial ice cover consists mainly of thick multiyear ice floes, and its persistent decline would mean a reduction in the average thickness of sea ice and a change in the overall characteristics of the Arctic sea ice cover. Furthermore, the yearly anomaly patterns are coherent with those of surface temperatures derived from 19 years of thermal infrared AVHRR data. The latter also shows that in consolidated ice regions, the average temperature during summer minima has been increasing at about 0.9 +/- 0.6 K per decade.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Variability of ozone loss during Arctic winter (1991 to 2000) estimated from UARS Microwave Limb Sounder measurement

A comprehensive analysis of version 5 Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone data using a Lagrangian Transport (LT) model provides estimates of chemical ozone depletion for the 1991-1992 through 1997-1998 Arctic winters. These new estimates give a consistent, three-dimensional picture of ozone loss during seven Arctic winters; previous Arctic ozone loss estimates from MLS were based on various earlier data versions and were done only for late winter and only for a subset of the years observed by MLS. We find large interannual variability in the amount, timing, and patterns of ozone depletion and in the degree to which chemical loss is masked by dynamical processes.

Arctic ozone loss↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using Satellite Measurements of N2O to Remove Dynamical Variability from HCl Measurements

Column HCl measurements show deviations from the expected slow decline following the regulation of chlorine-containing compounds by the Montreal Protocol. We use the simultaneous measurements of N2O and HCl by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to examine this problem. We find that the use of N2O measurements at a specific altitude to represent the impact of dynamical variability on HCl results in a derived linear trend in HCl that is negative (ranging from -2.5 to 5.3%decade-1) at all altitudes between 68 and 10 hPa. These trends are at or near 2 sigma statistical significance at all pressure levels between 68 and 10 hPa. This shows that analysis of simultaneous measurements of several constituents is a useful approach to identify small trends from data records that are strongly influenced by dynamical interannual variability.

Stolarski, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2013

Impacts of Soil-aquifer Heat and Water Fluxes on Simulated Global Climate

Climate models have traditionally only represented heat and water fluxes within relatively shallow soil layers, but there is increasing interest in the possible role of heat and water exchanges with the deeper subsurface. Here, we integrate an idealized 50m deep aquifer into the land surface module of the GISS ModelE general circulation model to test the influence of aquifer-soil moisture and heat exchanges on climate variables. We evaluate the impact on the modeled climate of aquifer-soil heat and water fluxes separately, as well as in combination. The addition of the aquifer to ModelE has limited impact on annual-mean climate, with little change in global mean land temperature, precipitation, or evaporation. The seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperature is strongly damped by the soil-aquifer heat flux. This not only improves the model representation of permafrost area but propagates to the surface, resulting in an increase in the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature of >1K in the Arctic. The soil-aquifer water and heat fluxes both slightly decrease interannual variability in soil moisture and in landsurface temperature, and decrease the soil moisture memory of the land surface on seasonal to annual timescales. The results of this experiment suggest that deepening the modeled land surface, compared to modeling only a shallower soil column with a no-flux bottom boundary condition, has limited impact on mean climate but does affect seasonality and interannual persistence.

soil↗

NASA NTRS1999

Variability of Fram Strait Ice Flux and North Atlantic Oscillation

An important term in the mass balance of the Arctic Ocean sea ice is the ice export. We estimated the winter sea ice export through the Fram Strait using ice motion from satellite passive microwave data and ice thickness data from moored upward looking sonars. The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978-1996) is 670,000 square km, approximately 7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 sq. km in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 sq km in 1995. The daily, monthly and interannual variabilities of the ice area flux are high. There is an upward trend in the ice area flux over the 18-year record. The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 cubic km ranging from a low of 1375 cubic km in 1990 to a high of 2791 cubic km in 1994. The sea-level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait explains more than 80% of the variance in the ice flux over the 18-year record. We use the coefficients from the regression of the time-series of area flux versus pressure gradient across the Fram Strait and ice thickness data to estimate the summer area and volume flux. The average 12-month area flux and volume flux are 919,000 sq km and 2366 cubic km. We find a significant correlation (R =0.86) between the area flux and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index over the months of December through March. Correlation between our six years of volume flux estimates and the NAO index gives R =0.56. During the high NAO years, a more intense Icelandic low increases the gradient in the sea-level pressure by almost 1 mbar across the Fram Strait thus increasing the atmospheric forcing on ice transport. Correlation is reduced during the negative NAO years because of decreased dominance of this large-scale atmospheric pattern on the sea-level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait. Additional information is contained in the original.

Kwok, Ron↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Assimilation of Stratospheric Meteorological and Constituent Observations: A Review

This talk reviews the assimilation of meteorological and constituent observations of the stratosphere. The first efforts to assimilate observations into stratospheric models were during the early 1980s, and a number of research studies followed during the next decade. Since the launch of the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) in 1991, model-assimilated data sets of the stratospheric meteorological state have been routinely available. These assimilated data sets were critical in bringing together observations from the different instruments on UARS as well as linking UARS observations to measurements from other platforms. Using trajectory-mapping techniques, meteorological assimilation analyses are, now, widely used in the analysis of constituent observations and have increased the level of quantitative study of stratospheric chemistry and transport. During the 1990s the use of winds and temperatures from assimilated data sets became standard for offline chemistry and transport modeling. variability in middle latitudes. The transport experiments, however, reveal a set of shortcomings that become obvious as systematic errors are integrated over time. Generally, the tropics are not well represented, mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes is overestimated, and the residual circulation is not accurate. These shortcomings reveal underlying fundamental challenges related to bias and noise. Current studies using model simulation and data assimilation in controlled experimentation are highlighting the issues that must be addressed if assimilated data sets are to be convincingly used to study interannual variability and decadal change. observations. The primary focus has been on stratospheric ozone, but there are efforts that investigate a suite of reactive chemical constituents. Recent progress in ozone assimilation shows the potential of assimilation to contribute to the validation of ozone observations and, ultimately, the retrieval of ozone profiles from space-based radiance measurements. Assimilated data sets provide accurate analyses of synoptic and planetary Scale At the same time, stratospheric assimilation is evolving to include constituent

Rood, Richard B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Surface Freshwater Storage and Variability in the Amazon Basin from Multi-Satellite Observations, 1993-2007

The amount of water stored and moving through the surface water bodies of large river basins (river, floodplains, wetlands) plays a major role in the global water and biochemical cycles and is a critical parameter for water resources management. However, the spatio-temporal variations of these freshwater reservoirs are still widely unknown at the global scale. Here, we propose a hypsographic curve approach to estimate surface freshwater storage variations over the Amazon basin combining surface water extent from a multi-satellite-technique with topographic data from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Monthly surface water storage variations for 1993-2007 are presented, showing a strong seasonal and interannual variability, and are evaluated against in situ river discharge and precipitation. The basin-scale mean annual amplitude of approx. 1200 cu km is in the range of previous estimates and contributes to about half of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage variations. For the first time, we map the surface water volume anomaly during the extreme droughts of 1997 (October-November) and 2005 (September-October) and found that during these dry events the water stored in the river and flood-plains of the Amazon basin was, respectively, approx. 230 (approx. 40%) and 210 (approx. 50%) cu km below the 1993-2007 average. This new 15year data set of surface water volume represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or climate modeling of the Amazon. It is also a first step toward the development of such database at the global scale.

Storage↗

NASA NTRS2013

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗

NASA NTRS2011

Non-Stationary Internal Tides Observed with Satellite Altimetry

Temporal variability of the internal tide is inferred from a 17-year combined record of Topex/Poseidon and Jason satellite altimeters. A global sampling of along-track sea-surface height wavenumber spectra finds that non-stationary variance is generally 25% or less of the average variance at wavenumbers characteristic of mode-l tidal internal waves. With some exceptions the non-stationary variance does not exceed 0.25 sq cm. The mode-2 signal, where detectable, contains a larger fraction of non-stationary variance, typically 50% or more. Temporal subsetting of the data reveals interannual variability barely significant compared with tidal estimation error from 3-year records. Comparison of summer vs. winter conditions shows only one region of noteworthy seasonal changes, the northern South China Sea. Implications for the anticipated SWOT altimeter mission are briefly discussed.

Ray, Richard D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗

NASA NTRS1997

Climate Variability in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas

Satellite data reveal a 20% decline in sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in the two decades following 1973. This change is negatively correlated with surface air temperatures on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, which have increased -0.5 C / decade- since the mid-1940s, The recession was strongest during summer, when monthly average minima in 1991-92 removed much of the incipient multiyear ice over the continental shelf. This would have lowered the regional-mean ice thickness, impacting snow ice formation, brine production, and vertical heat flux. The northern ice edge contracted by 1 deg of latitude in all seasons from 1973-79 to 1987-93, returning toward mean conditions in 1993-95. The decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length, superimposed on high interannual variability. A review of atmospheric forcing shows winds consistent with mean and extreme ice extents, and suggests links to larger-scale circulation changes in the South Pacific. Historical ocean measurements are sparse in this sector, but mixed-layer depths and upper pycnoclines beneath the sea ice resemble those in the Weddell Sea. Weaker surface currents or changes in the upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water on the continental shelf could have contributed to the anomaly persistence.

Jacobs, Stanley S.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Climatology of Carbon Monoxide and Water Vapor on Mars as Observed by CRISM and Modeled by the GEM-Mars General Circulation Model

Radiative transfer modeling of near-infrared spectra taken by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) instrument onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) enables the column-integrated abundance of carbon monoxide (CO) and water vapor (H 2 O) to be retrieved. These results provide a detailed global description of the seasonal and spatial distribution of CO in the Mars atmosphere and new information about the interannual variability of H2O. The CRISM retrievals show the seasonally and globally averaged carbon monoxide mixing ratio to be near 800 parts per million, but with strong seasonal variations, especially at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the carbon monoxide mixing ratio varies in response to the mean seasonal cycle of surface pressure and shows little variation with topography. At high latitudes, carbon monoxide is depleted in the summer hemisphere by a factor of two or more, while in the winter hemisphere there is relatively higher mixing ratio in regions with low-lying topography. Water vapor shows only modest interannual variations, with the largest observed difference being unusually dry conditions in the wake of the Mars Year 28 global dust storm. Modeling results from the GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) - Mars general circulation model generally reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial trends and provide insight into the underlying physical processes.

Smith, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Satellite Passive-Microwave Record of Sea Ice in the Ross Sea Since Late 1978

Satellites have provided us with a remarkable ability to monitor many aspects of the globe day-in and day-out and sea ice is one of numerous variables that by now have quite substantial satellite records. Passive-microwave data have been particularly valuable in sea ice monitoring, with a record that extends back to August 1987 on daily basis (for most of the period), to November 1970 on a less complete basis (again for most of the period), and to December 1972 on a less complete basis. For the period since November 1970, Ross Sea sea ice imagery is available at spatial resolution of approximately 25 km. This allows good depictions of the seasonal advance and retreat of the ice cover each year, along with its marked interannual variability. The Ross Sea ice extent typically reaches a minimum of approximately 0.7 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers in February, rising to a maximum of approximately 4.0 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers in September, with much variability among years for both those numbers. The Ross Sea images show clearly the day-by-day activity greatly from year to year. Animations of the data help to highlight the dynamic nature of the Ross Sea ice cover. The satellite data also allow calculation of trends in the ice cover over the period of the satellite record. Using linear least-squares fits, the Ross Sea ice extent increased at an average rate of 12,600 plus or minus 1,800 square kilometers per year between November 1978 and December 2007, with every month exhibiting increased ice extent and the rates of increase ranging from a low of 7,500 plus or minus 5,000 square kilometers per year for the February ice extents to a high of 20,300 plus or minus 6,100 kilometers per year for the October ice extents. On a yearly average basis, for 1979-2007 the Ross Sea ice extent increased at a rate of 4.8 plus or minus 1.6 % per decade. Placing the Ross Sea in the context of the Southern Ocean as a whole, over the November 1978-December 2007 period the Ross Sea had the highest rate of increase in sea ice coverage of any of five standard divisions of the Southern Ocean, although the Weddell Sea, Indian Ocean, and Western Pacific Ocean all also had sea ice increases, while only the Bellingshausen/Smundsen Seas experienced overall sea ice decreases. Overall, the Southern Ocean sea ice cover increased at an average rate of 10,800 plus or minus 2,500 square kilometers per year between November 1978 and December 2007, with every month showing positive values although with some of these values not being statistically significant. The sea ice increase since November 1978 was preceded by a sharp decrease in Southern Ocean ice coverage in the 1970's and is in marked contrast to the decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage that has occurred both in the period since November 1978 and since earlier in the 1970's. On a yearly average bases, for 1979-2007 the Southern Ocean sea ice extent increased at a rate of 1.0 plus or minus 0.4% per decade, whereas the Arctic ice extent decreased at the much greater rate of 4.0 plus or minus 0.4 percent per decade (closer to the % per decade rate of increase in the Ross Sea). Considerable research is ongoing to explain the differences.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Signatures of aerosol-cloud interactions in GiOcean: a coupled global reanalysis with two-moment cloud microphysics

Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative balance through direct interactions with radiation and by affecting cloud properties. Anthropogenic aerosols have led to cooling during the industrial era through aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI), including aerosol effects on cloud microphysical properties and the subsequent adjustments. However, large uncertainties remain in Earth system models (ESMs) regarding the magnitude of this cooling. In part, ESMs substantially disagree on cloud properties, thermodynamics, the hydrological cycle, and general circulation. Reanalysis provides a useful avenue for exploring the impact of ACI on clouds and radiation because its atmosphere is forced to match realistic conditions through the assimilation of observations. Here, we explore the impact of ACI on clouds in the GiOcean reanalysis – the first to incorporate aerosol-cloud interactions. We contrast variables important for ACI between GiOcean and satellite observations and develop 2-dimensional lookup tables of ACI for both using a source-sink budget perspective to attribute the changes in cloud droplet number (Nd) and liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol and meteorology. A compositing analysis using lookup tables shows that GiOcean captures key aspects of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, including (1) activation of aerosol into cloud droplets, (2) effective precipitation scavenging of Nd, (3) suppression of precipitation by high Nd in regions with heavy aerosol emissions. In contrast, satellite observations do not exhibit clear patterns for processes (2) and (3). Random Forest analysis shows that interannual variability in Nd and LWP over the Northern Hemisphere ocean in GiOcean is primarily driven by precipitation, consistent with satellite observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗