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DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unique Conductivity Behavior in Water-In-Salt Electrolytes Driven by Ion Clusters

Understanding and predicting ion transport in aqueous electrolytes are crucial for advanced energy storage and biophysics, and many emergent technologies yet remain elusive. Herein, we introduce a unified framework to quantitatively describe and predict electrolyte conductivity that shifts from conventional molar concentration-based metrics to a volume fraction-based approach. Through analyzing a variety of electrolyte solutions via this perspective, we observe a universal conductivity peak at a 37% volume fraction. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations reveal that nanometer-scale ion clusters drive this general behavior. Moreover, key geometric features of the ion transport pathwayssuch as pore size, tortuosity, and connectivityfollow a consistent dependence with respect to the volume fraction, reinforcing the argument for the universal conductivity trend. This paradigm shift opens new avenues for designing high-performance electrolytes and provides transformative insights for advancing studies in many fields, wherein molecular aggregates dictate transport properties.

Nguyen, Huong T. D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observed Land Surface Influence on Atmospheric Heat and Moisture Profiles During Interstorms

Land-atmospheric (L-A) feedbacks have historically been studied using models whose structure and parameterizations influence outcomes and insights. The representation of L-A feedbacks based on observations alone remains an ongoing challenge for understanding boundary layer development and precipitation. To address this gap, we use ground-based passive remote sensing and in-situ observations to present an analysis of the atmosphere during 103 interstorm soil moisture drydown events spanning nine warm seasons (2016–2024) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains region. By separating events based on local L-A coupling signals and characterizing the profiles of atmospheric heat and moisture to surface energy flux behavior, we investigate the physical mechanisms linking land surface processes to boundary layer development. We find that during interstorm drydowns, the atmospheric column follows a consistent pattern: moisture increases within the boundary layer, peaks near its top, and declines rapidly above, while warming occurs through the depth. Drydowns that shift toward evaporation produce stronger and deeper thermodynamic responses than cases dominated by sensible heating, which are weaker and shallower. Additionally, moisture is accumulated faster within the boundary layer during shorter drydowns, with longer drydowns representing slower, moisture-limited growth. Drydowns with wetter initial soil moisture will sustain stronger moistening within and above the boundary layer, accelerating buoyancy growth and convective potential toward the next storm. These results provide observational evidence linking surface flux evolution to boundary layer thermodynamics and offer a process-level benchmark for evaluating coupled L-A representations in models and demonstrating the influence of soil moisture on short-term weather forecasting skill.

Zhang, M. S. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of a 600MW Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant using the Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool

This paper presents a techno-economic evaluation of the proposed 600 MW, 8-hour Craig – Hayden pumped storage hydropower project using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool. The analysis integrates plant technical characteristics, regional grid conditions, and market-based operating assumptions to quantify stacked value streams from energy arbitrage, capacity, ancillary services, transmission congestion relief, and reliability. Both price taker and price influencer frameworks are applied to examine the impact of market participation and system interactions on lifecycle economic performance using Benefit - Cost Analysis and Multi - Criteria Decision Analysis. The results show that the price taker approach provides higher revenue estimates based on exogenous price signals, while the price influencer approach captures production cost savings, renewable curtailment reduction, and market price formation, yielding more conservative but system-representative outcomes. The study demonstrates the strategic value of long-duration PSH for enhancing operational flexibility, resource adequacy, and grid reliability in a high-renewable Western Interconnection.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046↗

DOE OSTI2025

CRADA 2022-03 Final Report: Advanced Bearing Materials for Harsh Service Conditions

Develop advanced bearing materials for hydrogen gas turbines and wind turbines. Two candidate materials have been selected based on Ames lab’s recent work on high entropy alloys and shape memory alloys. These materials are designed to exhibit a balance of hardness, strength, toughness, and corrosion resistance. The hydrogen diffusion coefficient in the NiTi based shape memory alloy is two order of magnitude lower than that of the conventional case hardened bearing steel. We plan to atomize these materials into powders, additive manufacture cylindrical bearings, then test these bearing for rolling-contact fatigue, corrosion properties, and hydrogen embrittlement. We are a vertically integrated team comprises of national labs, bearing manufacturers, raw material powders makers, and aircraft gas turbine manufacturer.

Argibay, Nicolas [Ames Laboratory (AMES), Ames, IA↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nanohybrid of Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx as a Silver-Free MXene Sorbent for Iodine Gas Capture from Nuclear Waste

The capture of volatile radioiodine from nuclear fuel reprocessing off-gas streams remains a critical challenge due to the high volatility, long half-life of 129I, and biological uptake of iodide from the environment. Although silver-based sorbents provide strong iodine chemisorption, their high cost and regulatory classification as mixed radioactive-hazardous waste motivate the development of alternative materials. Here, we report a silver-free Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx MXene hybrid for iodine gas capture at 150 °C. Structural and compositional analyses confirm the formation of Cu2O nanoparticles on Ti3C2Tx nanosheets and their subsequent conversion to thermodynamically stable CuI upon static iodine gas exposure, achieving an iodine mass loading of up to 1115 mg/g. These results demonstrate the potential of Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx MXene as a copper-based alternative to silver sorbents for elevated-temperature iodine gas capture.

iodine gas capture↗

DOE OSTI2026

PowerModelsGAT-AI: Physics-Informed Graph Attention for Multi-System Power Flow With Continual Learning

Solving the alternating current power flow equations in real time is essential for secure grid operation, yet classical Newton–Raphson solvers can be slow under stressed conditions. Existing graph neural networks for power flow are typically trained on a single system and often degrade on different systems. We present PowerModelsGAT-AI, a physics-informed graph attention network that predicts bus voltages and generator injections. The model uses bus-type-aware masking to handle different bus types and balances multiple loss terms, including a power-mismatch penalty, using learned weights. We evaluate the model on 14 benchmark systems (4 to 6,470 buses) and train a unified model on 13 of these under contingency conditions with up to two branch outages, achieving an average normalized mean absolute error of 0.89% for voltage magnitudes and R 2 >0.99 for voltage angles. We also show continual learning: when adapting a base model to a new 1,354-bus system, standard fine-tuning causes severe forgetting with error increases exceeding 1000% on base systems, while our experience replay and elastic weight consolidation strategy keeps error increases below 2% and in some cases improves base-system performance. Interpretability analysis shows that learned attention weights correlate with physical branch parameters (susceptance: r=0.38 ; thermal limits: r=0.22 ), and feature importance analysis supports that the model captures established power flow relationships.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tetrel Bond-Mediated Photophysical Modulation and Fluoride Recognition in Carbazole-Organosilanes

Silicon-centered orbitals are typically regarded as electronically inert in donor–acceptor systems. Here, we show that silole-based carbazole–silane architectures can render these orbitals electronically relevant, enabling modulation of excited-state behavior and anion-responsive photophysics. Two carbazole–Dipp–silanes exhibit identical carbazole-localized LE singlet emission in solution yet diverge markedly in the solid state: one compound displays a broad long-wavelength emission band in the prompt spectrum and enhanced long-lived emission consistent with a triplet-derived excited state, likely arising from a combination of intramolecular structural locking and solid-state packing effects, whereas the more flexible analogue remains predominantly LE-emissive. Fluoride coordination further differentiates the two systems, producing ratiometric red-shifted emission in one case and fluorescence quenching in the other through a fully reversible coordination process. These results identify σ*(Si–Ar) orbitals as tunable contributors to excited-state landscapes in organosilane luminophores and suggest a broader design strategy for controlling excited-state behavior in tetrel-based photofunctional systems.

Haque, Md Hasanul↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning Nonlinear Reduced Models from Data with Operator Inference

This review discusses Operator Inference, a nonintrusive reduced modeling approach that incorporates physical governing equations by defining a structured polynomial form for the reduced model, and then learns the corresponding reduced operators from simulated training data. The polynomial model form of Operator Inference is sufficiently expressive to cover a wide range of nonlinear dynamics found in fluid mechanics and other fields of science and engineering, while still providing efficient reduced model computations. The learning steps of Operator Inference are rooted in classical projection-based model reduction; thus, some of the rich theory of model reduction can be applied to models learned with Operator Inference. This connection to projection-based model reduction theory offers a pathway toward deriving error estimates and gaining insights to improve predictions. Furthermore, through formulations of Operator Inference that preserve Hamiltonian and other structures, important physical properties such as energy conservation can be guaranteed in the predictions of the reduced model beyond the training horizon. This review illustrates key computational steps of Operator Inference through a large-scale combustion example.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic nanodomains dictate macroscopic properties in lead halide perovskites

Lead halide perovskites have emerged as promising materials for solar energy conversion and X-ray detection owing to their remarkable optoelectronic properties. However, the microscopic origins of their superior performance remain unclear. Here we show that low-symmetry dynamic nanodomains present in the high-symmetry average cubic phases, whose characteristics are dictated by the A-site cation, govern the macroscopic behaviour. We combine X-ray diffuse scattering, inelastic neutron spectroscopy, hyperspectral photoluminescence microscopy and machine-learning-assisted molecular dynamics simulations to directly correlate local nanoscale dynamics with macroscopic optoelectronic response. Our approach reveals that methylammonium-based perovskites form densely packed, anisotropic dynamic nanodomains with out-of-phase octahedral tilting, whereas formamidinium-based systems develop sparse, isotropic, spherical nanodomains with in-phase tilting, even when crystallography reveals cubic symmetry on average. We demonstrate that these sparsely distributed isotropic nanodomains present in formamidinium-based systems reduce electronic dynamic disorder, resulting in a beneficial optoelectronic response, thereby enhancing the performance of formamidinium-based lead halide perovskite devices. By elucidating the influence of the A-site cation on local dynamic nanodomains, and consequently, on the macroscopic properties, we propose leveraging this relationship to engineer the optoelectronic response of these materials, propelling further advancements in perovskite-based photovoltaics, optoelectronics and X-ray imaging.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development and Evaluation of a Cost-Effective Behind-the-Meter Synchronized Measurement Unit for Enhanced Grid Integration

This paper presents the development of the Inverter Based Resource Monitor (IBRM), an innovative behind-the-meter synchronized measurement unit (SMU) tailored for integration with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The IBRM distinguishes itself as a highly accurate and cost-effective SMU, offering facile deployment and connectivity to IBRs. It is equipped to conduct real-time voltage and current waveform analyses, serving as a phasor measurement unit (PMU) with exceptionally rapid synchrophasor transmission capabilities. The device incorporates a cutting-edge dual-core architecture designed to minimize sampling delays inherent to its microprocessor, thereby enhancing the precision of synchronized waveform measurements. Moreover, the IBRM is adept at recording high-fidelity waveform data, capturing nuances such as waveform distortions, high-order harmonics, and wide-band oscillations prevalent in power grids with substantial IBR presence. A prototype of the IBRM has been constructed and subjected to rigorous testing to assess its functional capabilities and measurement precision, utilizing both idealized signal generators and a real-world off-grid inverter setup as benchmarks.

Wu, Ori [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326723410)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flow synthesis of iron oxide nanoparticles: using multiple precursor additions to improve size control

Controlling the size of iron oxide nanoparticles while maintaining uniformity in flow-based synthesis systems has been a great challenge in nanoparticle synthesis. Using an extended LaMer mechanism, we improve both the size and shape uniformity as compared to a conventional flow synthesis. The key to this approach is the injection of additional Fe precursor during the flow reaction, providing extra precursor during the growth process leading to a size focusing step. This approach has also allowed for the systematic variation of the nanoparticle size produced in the flow reaction. This work represent a new synthetic concept for improving the size uniformity of iron oxide nanoparticles in flow-based synthesis and has potential for application across a wide range of nanoparticle systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting microstructurally sensitive fatigue‐crack path in WE43 magnesium using high‐fidelity numerical modeling and three‐dimensional experimental characterization

Abstract Microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials is highly three‐dimensional due to sensitivity to local microstructural features (e.g., grains). One requirement for modeling microstructurally sensitive crack propagation is establishing the criteria that govern crack evolution, including crack deflection. Here, a high‐fidelity finite‐element modeling framework is used to assess the performance and validity of various crack‐growth criteria, including slip‐based metrics (e.g., fatigue‐indicator parameters), as potential criteria for predicting three‐dimensional crack paths in polycrystalline materials. The modeling framework represents cracks as geometrically explicit discontinuities and involves voxel‐based remeshing, mesh‐gradation control, and a crystal‐plasticity constitutive model. The predictions are compared to experimental measurements of WE43 magnesium samples subject to fatigue loading, for which three‐dimensional grain structures and fatigue‐crack surfaces were measured post‐mortem using near‐field high‐energy x‐ray diffraction microscopy and x‐ray computed tomography. Findings from this work are expected to improve the predictive capabilities of simulations involving microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantum Circuits for the Preparation of Spin Eigenfunctions on Quantum Computers

The application of quantum algorithms to the study of many-particle quantum systems requires the ability to prepare wave functions that are relevant in the behavior of the system under study. Hamiltonian symmetries are important instruments used to classify relevant many-particle wave functions and to improve the efficiency of numerical simulations. In this work, quantum circuits for the exact and approximate preparation of total spin eigenfunctions on quantum computers are presented. Two different strategies are discussed and compared: exact recursive construction of total spin eigenfunctions based on the addition theorem of angular momentum, and heuristic approximation of total spin eigenfunctions based on the variational optimization of a suitable cost function. The construction of these quantum circuits is illustrated in detail, and the preparation of total spin eigenfunctions is demonstrated on IBM quantum devices, focusing on three- and five-spin systems on graphs with triangle connectivity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-contrast machine learning improves schistosomiasis diagnostic performance

Schistosomiasis currently affects over 250 million people and remains a public health burden despite ongoing global control efforts. Conventional microscopy is a practical tool for diagnosis and screening ofSchistosoma haematobium, but identification of eggs requires a skilled microscopist. Here we present a machine learning (ML)-based strategy for automated detection ofS. haematobiumthat combines two imaging contrasts, brightfield (BF) and darkfield (DF), to improve diagnostic performance. We collected BF and DF images of urine samples, many of them containingS. haematobiumeggs, during two different field studies in Côte d’Ivoire using a mobile phone-based microscope, the SchistoScope. We then trained separate egg-detection ML models and compared the patient-level performance of BF and DF models alone to combinations of BF and DF models, using annotations from trained microscopists as the gold standard. We found that models trained on DF images, and almost all BF and DF combinations, performed significantly better than models trained on BF images only. When models were trained on images from the first field study (n = 349 patients, 748 images of each contrast), patient-level classification performance on patient images from the second study (n = 375 patients, 752 images of each contrast) met the WHO Diagnostic Target Product Profile (TPP) sensitivity and specificity for the monitoring and evaluation use case (sensitivity for all models and combinations was >75% when evaluated at a confidence score threshold that resulted in specificity >96.5%). When we used images from both field studies for the training set, performance of the models was improved. Overall, this work shows that the use of DF and BF increases the performance of ML models on images from devices with low-cost optics, while retaining the portability, power, and time-to-results of the WHO’s diagnostic TPP. DF requires no additional sample preparation and does not increase the complexity of the imaging system. It thus offers a practical means to improve performance of automated diagnostics forS. haematobiumas well as other microscopy-based diagnostics.

Infectious Diseases↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancement of the Physical and Mechanical Properties of Cellulose Nanofibril-Reinforced Lignocellulosic Foams for Packaging and Building Applications

Biobased foams have the potential to serve as eco-friendly alternatives to petroleum-based foams, provided they achieve comparable thermomechanical and physical properties. We propose a facile approach to fabricate eco-friendly cellulose nanofibril (CNF)-reinforced thermomechanical pulp (TMP) fiber-based foams via an oven-drying process with thermal conductivity as low as 0.036 W/(m·K) at a 34.4 kg/m3 density. Acrodur®, iron chloride (FeCl3), and cationic polyacrylamide (CPAM) were used to improve the foam properties. Acrodur® did not have any significant effect on the foamability and density of the foams. Mechanical, thermal, cushioning, and water absorption properties of the foams were dependent on the density and interactions of the additives with the fibers. Due to their high density, foams with CPAM and FeCl3 at a 1% additive dosage had significantly higher compressive properties at the expense of slightly higher thermal conductivity. There was slight increase in compressive properties with the addition of Acrodur®. All additives improved the water stability of the foams, rendering them stable even after 24 h of water absorption.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Passive continuous variable quantum key distribution scheme using a thermal source

A passive continuous variable quantum key distribution scheme, where Alice splits the output of a thermal source into two beams, measures one locally and transmits the other mode to Bob after applying attenuation. A secure key can be established based on measurements of the two beams without the use of a random number generator or an optical modulator.

Qi, Bing↗