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At least 379 records · Page 21

Municipality Level Simulations of Dengue Fever Incidence in Puerto Rico Using Ground Based and Remotely Sensed Climate Data

Dengue fever (DF) is caused by a virus transmitted between humans and Aedes genus mosquitoes through blood feeding. In recent decades incidence of the disease has drastically increased in the tropical Americas, culminating with the Pan American outbreak in 2010 which resulted in 1.7 million reported cases. In Puerto Rico dengue is endemic, however, there is significant inter‐annual, intraannual, and spatial variability in case loads. Variability in climate and the environment, herd immunity and virus genetics, and demographic characteristics may all contribute to differing patterns of transmission both spatially and temporally. Knowledge of climate influences on dengue incidence could facilitate development of early warning systems allowing public health workers to implement appropriate transmission intervention strategies. In this study, we simulate dengue incidence in several municipalities in Puerto Rico using population and meteorological data derived from ground based stations and remote sensing instruments. This data was used to drive a process based model of vector population development and virus transmission. Model parameter values for container composition, vector characteristics, and incubation period were chosen by employing a Monte Carlo approach. Multiple simulations were performed for each municipality and the results were compared with reported dengue cases. The best performing simulations were retained and their parameter values and meteorological input were compared between years and municipalities. Parameter values varied by municipality and year illustrating the complexity and sensitivity of the disease system. Local characteristics including the natural and built environment impact transmission dynamics and produce varying responses to meteorological conditions.

Remote Sensing↗

Tank Tests of a Model of a Flying-boat Hull Having a Longitudinally Concave Planing Bottom

The NACA model 11-B, which has a longitudinally concave planing bottom forward of the step, was tested over a wide range of loading. The results of the tests are presented as curves of resistance and trimming moment plotted against speed for various trim angles and as curves of resistance coefficient at best trim angle, and trimming-moment coefficient. The characteristics of the form at the optimum trim are compared with those of NACA model 11-C which has the same form with the exception of a planing bottom longitudinally straight near the step. Photographs of the models being towed in the tank are included for a comparison of the spray patterns. At the best angles of trim in each case model 11-B has lower resistance at high speeds, a higher maximum positive trimming moment near the hump speed, and a more favorable spray pattern than of model 11-C.

Parkinson, J B↗

Perspective: The Climate-Population-Infrastructure Modeling and Simulation Fertile Area for New Research

Managing the risks posed by climate change and extreme weather to energy production and delivery is a challenge to communities worldwide. As climate conditions change, populations will shift, and demand will re-locate; and networked infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers, and, hopefully, minimize vulnerability to natural disaster. Climate effects such as sea level rise, increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, force populations to move locations. Displaced population creates new demand for built infrastructure that in turn generates new economic activity that attracts new workers and associated households to the new locations. Infrastructures and their interdependencies will change in reaction to climate drivers as the networks expand into new population areas and as portions of the networks are abandoned as people leave. Thus, infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers while some parts of the network are underused, and these changes will create emerging vulnerabilities. Forecasting the location of these vulnerabilities by combining climate predictions and agent based population movement models shows promise for defining these future population distributions and changes in coastal infrastructure configurations. By combining climate and weather data, engineering algorithms and social theory it has been only recently possible to examine electricity demand response to increased climactic temperatures, population relocation in response to extreme cyclonic events, consequent net population changes and new regional patterns in electricity demand. These emerging results suggest a research agenda of coupling these disparate modelling approaches to understand the implications of climate change for protecting the nation s critical infrastructure.

Climate↗

Element-based concrete design with three-dimensional finite element models

A shell element based design of a typical shear wall using analytical results from a three-dimensional finite element model subjected to a combination of vertical and lateral loads is evaluated. The axial and flexural force resultants from each element for every load combination are used to calculate the required reinforcing for each element. Strength for axial loads (P) and out-of-plane flexure (M) in structural walls is determined according to the same P-M interaction procedures used for columns. After each element has been evaluated, a required reinforcing map for each face of each element in the wall is presented along with a constructible reinforcement pattern enveloping the required reinforcing. In order to determine whether the element-based approach meets the requirements of the section cut approach to design, which is typically employed in manual calculations, the total in-plane moment (M) and total vertical axial force (P) across the entire length of the wall is calculated and the P-M points are plotted on an in-plane P-M interaction diagram. It is concluded that element-based design for a structural wall ensures that reinforcement is provided where required by the three-dimensional finite element analysis while still providing sufficient reinforcing to satisfy the section cut approach to design. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Weibull-Based Stochastic Simulation of Mud-Crack Damage Formation in an Environmental Barrier Coating

The integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to simulate the formation of mudflat-cracks from thermomechanical loading on a multi-layered Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) system deposited on a ceramic substrate. FEAMAC/CARES combines MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code/Generalized Method of Cells) multiscale composite micromechanics code with CARES/Life probabilistic multiaxial failure criteria code and Abaqusfinite element analysis. In this work, step function elastic modulus reduction of randomly damaged finite elements was used to represent discrete cracking events. The use of many small-sized low-aspect-ratio finite elements enabled the depiction of crack boundaries and formation of mudflat patterned damage. Demonstrated examples include finite element models of button-sized disk-shaped 3-D specimen, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. All models were subjected to a progressive cool down from 1300 degrees Centigrade to room temperature. Mudflat crack damage in the coating system resulted from the buildup of residual tensile stresses between the individual material constituents from thermal expansion mismatch. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution characterized the coating layer stochastic strength response and the effect of the Weibull modulus on the formation of damage was studied here.

Residual Tensile Stress↗

Evidence of non-isentropic release from high residual temperatures in shocked metals measured with ultrafast x-ray diffraction

Shock experiments are widely used to understand the mechanical and electronic properties of matter under extreme conditions. However, after shock loading to a Hugoniot state, a clear description of the post-shock thermal state and its impacts on materials is still lacking. We used diffraction patterns from 100-fs x-ray pulses to investigate the temperature evolution of laser-shocked Al–Zr metal film composites at time delays ranging from 5 to 75 ns driven by a 120-ps short-pulse laser. We found significant heating of both Al and Zr after shock release, which can be attributed to heat generated by inelastic deformation. A conventional hydrodynamic model that employs (i) typical descriptions of Al and Zr mechanical strength and (ii) elevated strength responses (which might be attributed to an unknown strain rate dependence) did not fully account for the measured temperature increase, which suggests that other strength-related mechanisms (such as fine-scale void growth) could play an important role in thermal responses under shock wave loading/unloading cycles. Our results suggest that a significant portion of the total shock energy delivered by lasers becomes heat due to defect-facilitated plastic work, leaving less converted to kinetic energy. This heating effect may be common in laser-shocked experiments but has not been well acknowledged. High post-shock temperatures may induce phase transformation of materials during shock release. Another implication for the study is the preservability of magnetic records from planetary surfaces that have a shock history from frequent impact events.

42 ENGINEERING↗

In-situ Testing to Acquire HR-EBSD and DIC Strain Data Within a Coincident Domain

For this project, an inked rubber stamp was applied to a small Inconel 625 specimen. The stamp transferred a thin pattern with microscale features for digital image correlation (DIC). The pattern is easily visible at lower voltages and thin enough to not obstruct backscattered electrons. The unique characteristics of the pattern enabled the concurrent acquisition of DIC and high-resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HR-EBSD) data while the specimen was loaded in-situ. The challenges of in-situ testing and combining EBSD with DIC measurements are discussed. By combining the elastic strains (from HR-EBSD) and total strains (from DIC) the result of this approach is an estimate of stress- strain behavior at points across the specimen surface. This combined dataset can then be used as higher-fidelity data in the calibration of crystal plasticity models.

Will Gilliland↗

Acoustic Signatures of a Model Fan in the NASA-Lewis Anechoic Wind Tunnel

One-third octave band and narrowband spectra and continuous directivity patterns radiated from an inlet are presented over ranges of fan operating conditions, tunnel velocity, and angle of attack. Tunnel flow markedly reduced the unsteadiness and level of the blade passage tone, revealed the cutoff design feature of the blade passage tone, and exposed a lobular directivity pattern for the second harmonic tone. The full effects of tunnel flow are shown to be complete above a tunnel velocity of 20 meters/second. The acoustic signatures are also shown to be strongly affected by fan rotational speed, fan blade loading, and inlet angle of attack.

Dietrich, D. A.↗

Energy Analysis of Combi Heat Pump System Configurations for Space Conditioning and Domestic Hot Water Heating in Residential Buildings

Combi heat pump systems, also referred to multifunctional variable refrigerant flow heat recovery (MF-VRFHR) systems, are specifically designed for residential applications to manage both space conditioning and domestic hot water (DHW). They have attracted attention due to their potential for energy conservation through heat recovery. The incorporation of a hot water tank introduces various system configurations, each characterized by distinct pros and cons related to energy efficiency, system stability, and maintenance. Despite this, a critical gap exists as the specific energy performance remains unquantified under diverse operational modes (e.g., heating mode and heat recovery mode). This paper aims to bridge this gap by conducting a comprehensive comparative analysis of two prevalent system configurations while considering feasible proposed control logics. Configuration 1 integrates a separate hot water tank and a refrigerant-to-water heat exchanger (HEX), also known as a Hydro Kit while Configuration 2 incorporates a refrigerant-wrapped hot water tank. To facilitate this analysis, we developed high-fidelity system models for both configurations in Modelica, capturing system dynamics and detailed control sequences effectively. These system models were built upon the TIL library for HVAC equipment components and the Buildings library for residential building thermal load calculations. The validation of the simulation testbed utilized data from experiments conducted in the PNNL lab home for Configuration 1. To establish the simulation testbed for Configuration 2, we extended the modeling setup derived from Configuration 1. This extension specifically involved substituting the separate hot water tank and Hydro Kit with a refrigerant-wrapped hot water tank of similar sizing sourced from an actual product. The simulation analysis of heating-only and heat recovery modes reveals that Configuration 2 not only saves energy and maintains warmer tank temperatures but also demonstrates faster water heating capabilities. This is attributed to decreased energy loss and improved heat transfer. The study encompasses a wide range of scenarios, considering diverse thermal loads and water usage patterns across heating and heat recovery modes. Overall, the comprehensive results indicate that Configuration 2 achieves energy savings ranging from 3.5% to 12.2% compared to Configuration 1, depending on factors such as water usage patterns, thermal loads, and operational modes.

Configuration, Comparison, Multi-functional, Resid↗

Impedance of strip-traveling waves on an elastic half space - Asymptotic solution

The dynamic normal-load distribution across a strip that is required to maintain a plane progressive wave along its length is studied for the case where the strip is of infinite length and lies on the surface of a homogeneous isotropic elastic half space. This configuration is proposed as a preliminary idealized model for analyzing the dynamic interaction between soils and flexible foundations. The surface load distribution across the strip and the motion of the strip are related by a pair of dual integral equations. An asymptotic solution is obtained for the limiting case of small wavelength. The nature of this solution depends importantly on the propagation velocity of the strip-traveling wave in comparison with the Rayleigh wave speed, the shear wave speed and the dilatational wave speed. When the strip-traveling wave propagates faster than the Rayleigh wave speed, a pattern of trailing Rayleigh waves is shed from the strip. The limiting amplitude of the trailing waves is provided by the asymptotic solution.

Crandall, S. H.↗

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Acoustic signatures of a model fan in the NASA-Lewis anechoic wind tunnel

One-third octave band and narrowband spectra and continuous directivity patterns radiated from an inlet are presented over ranges of fan operating conditions, tunnel velocity, and angle of attack. Tunnel flow markedly reduced the unsteadiness and level of the blade passage tone, revealed the cut-off design feature of the blade passage tone, and exposed a lobular directivity pattern for the second harmonic tone. The full effects of tunnel flow are shown to be complete above a tunnel velocity of 20 meters/second. The acoustic signatures are also shown to be strongly affected by fan rotational speed, fan blade loading, and inlet angle of attack.

Dietrich, D. A.↗

Two-Dimensional Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis of CMC Microstructures

Detailed two-dimensional finite element analyses of the cross-sections of a model CVI (chemical vapor infiltrated) SiC/SiC (silicon carbide fiber in a silicon carbide matrix) ceramic matrix composites are performed. High resolution images of the cross-section of this composite material are generated using serial sectioning of the test specimens. These images are then used to develop very detailed finite element models of the cross-sections using the public domain software OOF2 (Object Oriented Analysis of Material Microstructures). Examination of these images shows that these microstructures have significant variability and irregularity. How these variabilities manifest themselves in the variability in effective properties as well as the stress distribution, damage initiation and damage progression is the overall objective of this work. Results indicate that even though the macroscopic stress-strain behavior of various sections analyzed is very similar, each section has a very distinct damage pattern when subjected to in-plane tensile loads and this damage pattern seems to follow the unique architectural and microstructural details of the analyzed sections.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

Gravity anomaly and structure associated with the Lamont region of the moon

Lamont is a unique lunar feature in southwestern Mare Tranquillitatis associated with radial and concentric ridge patterns and a positive free-air gravity anomaly. Best fitting models to high and low altitude gravity data place nearly all of the anomalous mass in the subsurface, consistent with the hypothesis that Lamont is a mascon. Lamont is positioned on the axis of a 1500 m deep north-south topographic trough occupying western Mare Tranquillitatis. It is proposed that this trough is a synclinal fold in the lunar crust and the tectonic fabric of western Tranquillitatis is consistent with the superposition of the stress fields due to synclinal folding and the loading of the lithosphere by the Lamont mascon.

Dvorak, J.↗

Mode interaction in stiffened composite shells under combined mechanical and thermal loadings

Stiffened shells of various configurations fabricated out of composite materials find extensive applications in aircraft structures. Two distinctive modes of buckling dominate structural response of stiffened panels, viz. the short-wave local mode in which the shell skin buckles essentially between the stiffeners and the long-wave overall mode in which the shell skin buckles carrying the stiffeners with it. In optimized designs, the critical stresses corresponding to these modes of buckling would be close to each other. This leads to a nonlinear mode interaction which is recognized to be the principal cause of the failure of stiffened structures. If the structure is subjected to through-the-thickness thermal gradients, then large-wave bending effects would begin to occur well below the overall critical load and these would play the role of overall imperfections. The load carrying capacity would be significantly diminished as a result of interaction of local buckling with overall thermal distortions. The analysis of this problem using standard finite element techniques can be shown to be prohibitively expensive for design iterations. A concept which would greatly facilitate the analysis of mode interaction is advanced. We note that the local buckling occurs in a more or less periodic pattern in a structure having regular spacings of stiffeners. Thus it is a relatively simple matter to analyze the local buckling and the second order effects (which are essential for modeling postbuckling phenomena) using a unit cell of the structure. Once analyzed, these dormations are embedded in a shell element. Thus, a shell element could span several half-waves of local buckling and still be able to depict local buckling effects with requisite accuracy. A major consequence of the interaction of overall buckling/bending is the slow variation of the local buckling amplitude across the structure - the phenomenon of 'amplitude modulation' - and this is accounted for in the present model by letting the scaling parameter of the local mode vary according to a 'slowly varying' function. The construction of the analytical model involves essentially two stages and these are described briefly.

Sridharan, Srinivasan↗

Optimizing Muscle Parameters in Musculoskeletal Modeling Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Astronauts assigned to long-duration missions experience bone and muscle atrophy in the lower limbs. The use of musculoskeletal simulation software has become a useful tool for modeling joint and muscle forces during human activity in reduced gravity as access to direct experimentation is limited. Knowledge of muscle and joint loads can better inform the design of exercise protocols and exercise countermeasure equipment. In this study, the LifeModeler(TM) (San Clemente, CA) biomechanics simulation software was used to model a squat exercise. The initial model using default parameters yielded physiologically reasonable hip-joint forces. However, no activation was predicted in some large muscles such as rectus femoris, which have been shown to be active in 1-g performance of the activity. Parametric testing was conducted using Monte Carlo methods and combinatorial reduction to find a muscle parameter set that more closely matched physiologically observed activation patterns during the squat exercise. Peak hip joint force using the default parameters was 2.96 times body weight (BW) and increased to 3.21 BW in an optimized, feature-selected test case. The rectus femoris was predicted to peak at 60.1% activation following muscle recruitment optimization, compared to 19.2% activation with default parameters. These results indicate the critical role that muscle parameters play in joint force estimation and the need for exploration of the solution space to achieve physiologically realistic muscle activation.

Hanson, Andrea↗

Threshold Gravity Determination and Artificial Gravity Studies Using Magnetic Levitation

What is the threshold gravity (minimum gravity level) required for the nominal functioning of the human system? What dosage is required (magnitude and duration)? Do human cell lines behave differently in microgravity in response to an external stimulus? The critical need for a variable gravity simulator is emphasized by recent experiments on human epithelial cells and lymphocytes on the Space Shuttle clearly showing that cell growth and function are markedly different from those observed terrestrially. Those differences are also dramatic between cells grown in space and those in Rotating Wall Vessels (RWV), or NASA bioreactor often used to simulate microgravity, indicating that although morphological growth patterns (three dimensional growth) can be successfully simulated using RWVs, cell function performance is not reproduced - a critical difference. If cell function is dramatically affected by gravity off-loading, then cell response to stimuli such as radiation, stress, etc. can be very different from terrestrial cell lines. Yet, we have no good gravity simulator for use in study of these phenomena. This represents a profound shortcoming for countermeasures research. We postulate that we can use magnetic levitation of cells and tissue, through the use of strong magnetic fields and field gradients, as a terrestrial microgravity model to study human cells. Specific objectives of the research are: 1. To develop a tried, tested and benchmarked terrestrial microgravity model for cell culture studies; 2. Gravity threshold determination; 3. Dosage (magnitude and duration) of g-level required for nominal functioning of cells; 4. Comparisons of magnetic levitation model to other models such as RWV, hind limb suspension, etc. and 5. Cellular response to reduced gravity levels of Moon and Mars.

Ramachandran, N.↗

Eco-driving Profile Optimization by Dynamic Programming for Battery Electric Vehicles

Although full automation has not yet been achieved, automated vehicles are a valid research area. Not only would automated vehicles provide ultimate driver convenience, but they would maximize energy efficiency by eliminating undesired human driving behaviors and optimally controlling the powertrain. From the perspective of control related to energy saving, speed profile optimization is important for improving system efficiency and satisfying passenger demands. This study employs Dynamic Programming (DP) to solve the constrained optimal problem for travel time, distance, and speed limit by exploring all possible control options. The solutions obtained by DP demonstrate consistent control patterns combining four control modes-acceleration, cruising, coasting, and braking, with cruising or coasting being selective depending on the boundary conditions. Further, this study introduces DP-based simulation results and attempts to provide comprehensive interpretations of the optimal policy by analyzing the essential factors that affect the control problem, including boundary conditions, road load, and powertrain characteristics. Based on these interpretations, the control concepts can be explained as the optimal policy selecting the best control option based on system efficiency and boundary conditions. The results of DP are compared with a human-like driver model to show that the optimal speed profiles can effectively reduce energy consumption.

Autonomous vehicles↗