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DOE OSTI2025

Unpacking model inadequacy: The quantification of silver release from TRISO fuel by considering empirical and mechanistic approaches

Increasing adoption of the proposed tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel for both advanced and existing reactors makes it critical to assess and address any uncertainties and inadequacies of TRISO fission product release models. Model inadequacy stems from simplifications made to the computational model when compared to the experiments. The modeling and simulation efforts conducted using the BISON fuel performance code, along with the experimental campaigns carried out under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, afford a unique opportunity to conduct a rigorous modeling inadequacy assessment within the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. Here, this study compares the standard Bayesian framework against the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly represents modeling inadequacy, in regard to UQ for TRISO silver release models. For this purpose, both the traditional Arrhenius equation fitted to experimental data and the more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model, which considers microstructure information, are independently considered. Applying the inverse UQ process on the AGR-2 and -3/4 datasets revealed modeling inadequacy to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Experimental noise uncertainty is also significant; however, model parameter uncertainty can be considered negligible. Interestingly, both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model demonstrated similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For the forward predictive UQ, the KOH framework improved both the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties in comparison to the standard Bayesian framework. This is true for both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model. In comparing these modeling approaches, both demonstrated similar performance at the engineering scale, while the LLS-informed model expectedly outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These conclusions highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for modeling inadequacy in the UQ process, and reinforce the need for continuous refinement of physics-based models in order to address the modeling inadequacy.

Advanced reactors↗

DOE OSTI2019

Do Epistemic Uncertainties Allow for Replacing Microstructural Experiments with Reconstruction Algorithms?

A novel problem in computational materials modeling is addressed: “Are the computational microstructure reconstruction techniques reliable enough to replace experiments?” Here, “reliable” computations are associated with producing “expected” reconstructions that are adequately close to the experimental data. The output of computational techniques can deviate from the experimental measurements because of the epistemic uncertainties in the algorithms. In this work, an analytical formulation for quantification of epistemic uncertainties in a microstructure reconstruction algorithm based on Markov random field is presented. The method is used to predict the large-scale spatial distribution of a microstructure given an experimental input measured over a small spatial domain. However, small variations are observed on the microstructural features of the synthesized samples due to the Markov random field algorithm. The proposed analytical technique aims to quantify these uncertainties and estimate their propagation to the macroscale material properties to provide a significant understanding on how reliable it is to replace the experiments with the Markov random field model to predict microstructural maps over large spatial domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Framework to Predict Melting Dynamics at Microstructural Defects in TNT-HMX High Explosive Composites

Many high explosive (HE) formulations are composite materials whose microstructure is understood to impact functional characteristics. Interfaces are known to mediate the formation of hot spots that control their safety and initiation. Here, to study such processes at molecular scales, we developed all-atom force fields (FFs) for Octol, a prototypical HE formulation comprised of TNT (2,4,6-trinitrotoluene) and HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine). We extended a FF for TNT and recasted it in a form that can be readily combined with a well-established FF for HMX. The resulting FF was extensively validated against experimental results and density functional theory calculations. We applied the new combined TNT-HMX FF to predict and rank surface and interface energies, which indicate that there is an energetic driver for coarsening of microstructural grains in TNT-HMX composites. Finally, we assess the impact of several microstructural environments on the dynamic melting of TNT crystal under ultrafast thermal loading. We find that both free surfaces and planar material interfaces are effective nucleation points for TNT melting. However, MD simulations show that TNT crystal is prone to superheating by at least 50 K on subnanosecond time scales and that the degree of superheating is inversely correlated with surface and interface energy. The modeling framework presented here will enable future studies on hot spot formation processes in accident scenarios that are governed by strong coupling between microstructural interfaces, material mechanics, momentum and energy transport, phase transitions, and chemistry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Model Integration with MOOSE XFEM for Creep Crack Growth

Ferritic-martensitic steels are key structural materials for advanced reactors but experience time-dependent deformation and damage under prolonged high temperature and irradiation, leading to creep-driven crack initiation and growth. High-fidelity models—crystal plasticity with irradiation mechanisms, phase-field for microstructural evolution, and continuum-damage viscoplasticity—capture the underlying physics but are too computationally intensive for broad design-space exploration and uncertainty quantification. This milestone advances a scalable alternative by integrating a microstructure-sensitive surrogate creep model into the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework and extending it to fracture via the extended finite element method (XFEM). The surrogate model, developed with collaborators at Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories, maps relevant microstructural descriptors to the viscoplastic response of HT9. We embed this surrogate within a coupled deformation-damage workflow in MOOSE/XFEM to simulate creep-driven crack initiation and propagation. Implementation enhancements include updates to the material interface, a plastic correction phase involving microstructure evolution, and fracture criteria to ensure numerical robustness and compatibility with the surrogate structure. Demonstrations on canonical creep benchmarks spanning uniaxial and multiaxial states show that the surrogate reproduces key trends of high-fidelity models while substantially reducing computational cost. The resulting capability bridges physics fidelity and performance, providing a practical path to a predictive, microstructure-aware assessment of creep and fracture in reactor materials.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of the influence of strain magnitude and strain path on the resulting microstructure and post-forming mechanical behavior of RA containing high formability steels

In third generation advanced high strength steels (AHSS) there is considerable potential to alter the transformation characteristics through variation of process parameters and through changes in chemical composition. This proposal aims to utilize this known phenomenon to develop microstructure-based transformation models to predict austenite stability as a function of chemical composition, strain level, deformation mode. The ultimate intent is to predict microstructure and performance during room temperature forming to produce automotive structural components with superior strength and failure resistance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Microstructure Characteristics and Comparative Analysis of Constitutive Models for Flow Stress Prediction of Inconel 718 Alloy

An accurate constitutive model is essential for analyzing deformation behavior of material and reliable numerical simulations in metal forming processes. In this study, hot tensile tests of Inconel 718 alloy have been conducted over a wide range of temperatures (300-973 K at an interval of 100 K), strains (0.01-0.3 at an interval of 0.01) and quasi-static strain rates (0.0001, 0.001, 0.01 s{sup −1}). Flow stress behavior is significantly affected by test temperatures and strain rates. Microstructure characteristics of deformed test specimens have been examined using scanning electron microscope and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). The fractography study revealed that fracture is mix-mode type, i.e., ductile and brittle. Subsequently, EBSD analysis shown that dynamic recrystallization mechanism is more pronounced at a higher temperature. Furthermore, four constitutive models, namely modified Cowper–Symonds, modified Johnson Cook, modified Zerillie-Armstrong and integrated Johnson Cook–Zerillie-Armstrong (JC-ZA) models have been investigated for flow stress prediction. Capability of models has been evaluated based on the correlation coefficient (R), average absolute error (Δ) and its standard deviation (δ). Accurate prediction of flow stress behavior is found by integrated JC-ZA model with R = 0.9873, Δ = 2.44 and δ = 4.08%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the Representativity of Electrode Microstructure Parameters and Their Electrochemical Response for Lithium Ion Batteries

Lithium-ion battery electrochemical models require an accurate description of the electrodes microstructures to be predictive that can be achieved through nanoscale imaging. Such observations are however limited by their field of view (FOV), as they provide only a subset of the whole electrode volume that does not necessarily represent the whole electrode microstructure heterogeneity, and therefore can bias the microstructure analysis. A microstructure scale electrochemical model was used to investigate lithium plating onset, material non-uniform utilization, and in-plane heterogeneities for an NMC-graphite full cell. To evaluate the representativeness, and thus relevance, of these model predictions, a coupled representativity analysis has been performed on the microstructure parameters and, in a novel way, on the full cell electrochemical response. Electrode microstructure parameters representativeness has been first quantified using the representative volume element (RVE) methodology. The RVE major flaw is that ultimately it can only conclude if a FOV contains representative subvolumes of the FOV, but not if the FOV itself is representative of the electrode volume. Analysis can conclude negatively ('FOV is not representative'), but not positively ('FOV is representative'). One major contribution of this work was to quantify the convergence of the RVE size with the FOV, to actually investigate the FOV representativeness and thus partly remedy this intrinsic limitation. The analysis determined that performing a standard RVE calculation, without exploring its FOV convergence, is likely to strongly underestimate the actual RVE size. The new RVE methodology has been automated in the NREL open-source Microstructure Analysis Toolbox (MATBOX) and is available to the battery community. Representativeness of microstructure parameters is however only an intermediate step, as the end-results of an electrochemical model are performances predictions. Indeed, what is the practical consequence of a given deviation for a microstructure parameter? The microstructure parameter deviation propagations to the 3D microstructure scale electrochemical response have been then quantified for different charge rates. This defines a threshold for the microstructure parameters FOV for a desired maximum deviation of the electrochemical response. Such deviation propagation analysis is analogous to error propagation analysis and is necessary to determine the relevance of microstructure scale model predictions for macroscale predictions. Electrochemical model shows cell representative section areas are increasing with C-rate, due to higher in-plane heterogeneities, indicating larger FOVs are required specifically for fast charge modeling. Therefore, we introduced the novel concept of electrochemical RVE (eRVE) that is a function of the operating conditions (thus defined as a dynamic RVE), with an increasing dependence with the C-rate. Representativity analysis of the investigated cell determined a FOV of 144.4 x 54.4 m2 is large enough to establish a convergence on the representative section areas for low to intermediate C-rate (=2.5C), but not large enough to conclude for higher rates. This work aims to emphasize the importance of representativity analysis for LIB electrode microstructures, as it is required to estimate the error, and thus the relevance, of microstructure parameters intended to be used in macroscale models. The methodology and results can help researchers to select the relevant imaging and associated FOV required to provide accurate enough microstructure parameters.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

ICME for Creep of Ni-Base Superalloys in Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Steam Turbines

The goal of this project contains three major aspects: (1) critical assessment of existing experimental data, (2) critical assessment of existing modeling capabilities and (3) development of new modeling capabilities that are critical but currently missing in predicting long-term creep behavior of Ni-base superalloys used in advanced ultra- supercritical (A-USC) steam turbines for coal-fired power plants. The project uses advanced materials informatics to datamine the experimental data, uncertainty quantification tools to rigorously assess existing creep-life models, and integration of phase-field and FFT-based crystal plasticity to develop a multi-scale, physics-based, microstructure-sensitive creep model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tailoring ductile-phase toughened tungsten hierarchical microstructures for plasma-facing materials

Biological materials, such as bones, nacre, etc., have been found to show attractive and unique combinations of stiffness, strength and fracture toughness. Research has been conducted in various engineering areas to mimic the naturally hierarchical microstructures or nanostructures of these materials to produce materials with optimum stiffness, high strength and fracture toughness for their intended structural applications. In the same objective, this work applies a multiscale microstructural approach recently developed to investigate the deformation and fracture behavior of ductile phase toughened tungsten (W) materials such as tungsten-nickel/iron (W-Ni/Fe) composites that possess lamellar-like and hierarchical “brick-and-mortar” (BAM) microstructures. First, the approach is used to simulate tensile loading of W-Ni/Fe specimens cut out from hot-rolled W-Ni/Fe plates which possess lamellar-like microstructures. The finite element model of the gage section of the specimen consists of a W-Ni/Fe dual-phase microstructural domain in which the constitutive behaviors of W and Ni/Fe phases are described by an elastic-plastic damage model. The predicted material stress-strain response and crack pattern development as a function of loading are then compared to the corresponding experimental results to determine the constitutive model parameters for W and Ni/Fe. Subsequently, the model parameters are used to analyze W-Ni/Fe BAM microstructures that are artificially created to investigate the effects of microstructural features and morphologies on the composite stress-strain response, damage, and fracture patterns. The modeling shows that regular BAM microstructures that experience bridging mechanism combined with crack penetration across W-phase regions exhibit significantly higher strengths than the rather random lamellar-like microstructures. More significantly, however adjusting the brick’s length-to-height ratio, the BAM microstructure can be designed to allow a more distributed damage zone which leads to increased strength, ductility and fracture energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

SAM-I-Am: Semantic boosting for zero-shot atomic-scale electron micrograph segmentation

Image segmentation is a critical enabler for tasks ranging from medical diagnostics to autonomous driving. However, the correct segmentation semantics — where are boundaries located? what segments are logically similar? — change depending on the domain, such that state-of-the-art foundation models can generate meaningless and incorrect results. Moreover, in certain domains, fine-tuning and retraining techniques are infeasible: obtaining labels is costly and time-consuming; domain images (micrographs) can be exponentially diverse; and data sharing (for third-party retraining) is restricted. To enable rapid adaptation of the best segmentation technology, we propose the concept of semantic boosting: given a zero-shot foundation model, guide its segmentation and adjust results to match domain expectations. Here, we apply semantic boosting to the Segment Anything Model (SAM) to obtain microstructure segmentation for transmission electron microscopy. Our booster, SAM-I-Am, serves as a post-processing engine that extracts geometric and textural features of various intermediate masks to perform mask removal and mask merging operations. We demonstrate a zero-shot performance increase of (absolute) +21.35%, +12.6%, +5.27% in mean IoU, and a -9.91%, -18.42%, -4.06% drop in mean false positive masks across images of three difficulty classes over vanilla SAM (ViT-L).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Towards an integrated experimental and computational framework for large-scale metal additive manufacturing

In this work using the Metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing (MBAAM) system, a thin steel wall was manufactured from a low carbon steel wire. The wall was then characterized comprehensively by high-throughput high-energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD), electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and in-situ HEXRD tensile tests. With the predicted temperature histories from the finite element-based additive manufacturing process simulations, the correlations between processing parameters, microstructure, and properties were established. The correlation between the final microstructure with the predicted temperature history is well explained with the material's continuous cooling transformation (CCT) diagram calculated based on the composition of the low carbon steel wire. The final microstructure is dependent on the cooling rate during austenite to ferrite/bainite transformation during initial cooling and the subsequent reheating cycles. Fast cooling rate resulted in small ferrite grain size and fine bainite structure at the location closest to the base plate. Slower cooling rate at the side wall location and repeated reheating cycles to the ferrite-pearlite regions resulted in all allotriomorphic (equiaxed) ferrite with medium grain size with small amount of pearlite. With no reheating cycles, the top location has the slowest cooling rate and a large grained allotriomorphic ferrite and bainitic structures. The measured mechanical strength is then related to the microstructural feature size (grain or lath size) observed in those locations. Thus, a good correlation is found between the mechanical properties, microstructure features and the temperature history at various locations of the printed wall.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Creep and Creep Fracture Modeling with Surrogate Creep Models and the Extended Finite Element Method

Alloy components in advanced nuclear reactors will be subjected to environmental conditions that could include high temperatures, irradiation, and exposure to corrosive salts. These conditions could lead to the formation of crack-like defects, which could grow over time in a mechanism known as creep crack growth (CCG). Predicting growth rates of these defects is important for assessing the safe operating life of advanced reactors. This project documents progress toward developing and testing next-generation data-driven constitutive models for deformation creep. It also documents the application of the extended finite element method in conjunction with surrogate creep models to predict CCG parameters under a variety of conditions. These important incremental developments contribute to the longer-term objective of developing microstructure-aware constitutive models that can be used for predicting creep deformation and CCG at the component scale with improved accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Establishing the relationship between manufacturing and component performance in stretch formed thermoplastic composites

Flexible manufacturing methods are needed to reduce the cost of using advanced composites in structural applications. One method that allows for this is the stretch forming of long discontinuous fiber materials with thermoplastic matrices. In order to exploit this flexibility in an economical way, a thorough understanding of the relationship between manufacturing and component performance must be developed. This paper reviews some of the recent work geared toward establishing this understanding. Micromechanics models have been developed to predict the formability of the material during processing. The latest improvement of these models includes the viscoelastic nature of the matrix and comparison with experimental data. A finite element scheme is described which can be used to model the forming process. This model uses equivalent anisotropic viscosities from the micromechanics models and predicts the microstructure in the formed part. In addition, structural models have been built to account for the material property gradients that can result from the manufacturing procedures. Recent developments in this area include the analysis of stress concentrations and a failure model each accounting for the heterogeneous material fields.

Santare, Michael H.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Uncertainty Quantification of Microstructural Material Variability Effects

This project has developed models of variability of performance to enable robust design and certification. Material variability originating from microstructure has significant effects on component behavior and creates uncertainty in material response. The outcomes of this project are uncertainty quantification (UQ) enabled analysis of material variability effects on performance and methods to evaluate the consequences of microstructural variability on material response in general. Material variability originating from heterogeneous microstructural features, such as grain and pore morphologies, has significant effects on component behavior and creates uncertainty around performance. Current engineering material models typically do not incorporate microstructural variability explicitly, rather functional forms are chosen based on intuition and parameters are selected to reflect mean behavior. Conversely, mesoscale models that capture the microstructural physics, and inherent variability, are impractical to utilize at the engineering scale. Therefore, current efforts ignore physical characteristics of systems that may be the predominant factors for quantifying system reliability. To address this gap we have developed explicit connections between models of microstructural variability and component/system performance. Our focus on variability of mechanical response due to grain and pore distributions enabled us to fully probe these influences on performance and develop a methodology to propagate input variability to output performance. This project is at the forefront of data-science and material modeling. We adapted and innovated from progressive techniques in machine learning and uncertainty quantification to develop a new, physically-based methodology to address the core issues of the Engineering Materials Reliability (EMR) research challenge in modeling constitutive response of materials with significant inherent variability and length-scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Survey of Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Volume II – Predicting Material Performance from Material Microstructure

This report describes the current state of modeling and simulation techniques for predicting the properties of materials fabricated with advanced manufacturing techniques, given the initial microstructure of the material. The report includes a literature survey and a gap analysis outlining and prioritizing key issues in applying these modeling and simulation techniques to nuclear reactor structural materials. The discussion covers both physics-based and data-driven modeling techniques and includes a broad range of manufacturing techniques and materials that may have future nuclear applications. This report is the second in a two-part series, with the first report covering modeling and simulation methods for predicting the initial, as-manufactured structure of advanced manufacturing materials, given a description of the process. Both reports focus on a set of manufacturing technologies likely to be applied to reactor structural components. Taken together, the two reports provide a complete summary of the current state of processing-structure-properties models for advanced manufacturing as well as a survey of applications to reactor structural materials

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Macro-micro multiscale modeling to assist the design of HPDC Al castings microstructure and alloys for EV super-large body structures (Phase 1)

Implementation of High Pressure Die Casting (HPDC) Aluminum (Al) body structures for high volume electrified vehicles (EV) to improve electric efficiency remains a key strategy within many original equipment manufacturer (OEM)s. In addition to high strength for safety requirements, superior Self-Piercing Riveting (SPR) performance is demanded for HPDC Al alloys to be compatible with high volume SPR joining. In this work, it is proposed to extend and validate an existing Contractor finite element multiscale macro-micro modeling approach to quantify the influence of the microstructure of HPDC alloys on the fracture strain/displacement under 3-point bend and clinch testing. The success of this work will allow to replace solution treatment stage with low energy consumption heat treatment (HT) processes, or to design new non heat treatable (NHT) HPDC Al alloys to eliminate HT requirements. Ultimately, this project will facilitate the application of HPDC Al alloys for super-large vehicle structures to significantly reduce vehicle weight, and thus improving energy efficiency. The purpose of this project is to extend and validate an existing finite element code, which is based on the Contractor developed macro-micro multi-scale modeling approach, to numerically simulate the three-point bending and clinch test and study the influences of material microstructural characteristics and phase properties on the rivetability. The macro-micro modeling approach begins with a sample scale model and identify the location, which is mostly prone to failure, the deformation history of the boundaries of that location calculated will be used to drive a microstructure-based sub-models where the material microstructure and microscale properties are considered. Using this approach, the wrap-bending failure for two Al alloys are correctly predicted for the first time. This will start with phase I effort of building a framework of macro-micro three point bending test and clinch test of Al10SiMgMn HPDC alloy in the as-cast and T7 heat treated conditions. Those results will then be validated with experimental test results. The phase II effort will involve the utilization of the knowledge learned in phase I to establish the quantitative correlation between the microstructure characteristics and the riveting performance, which will be further used to guide the optimization of HPDC Al alloy microstructure using heat treatment process to achieve sufficient rivetability to join large thin-wall HPDC alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Processing on Precipitation Kinetics in Nano Polycrystalline 7075 Aluminum Alloy

Fairmount Technologies (FT) seeks to optimize the thermomechanical processing of Aluminum Alloy 7075. The target yield strength is 20% higher than commercially available 7075-T6 temper sheet which will enable structural light weighting by a similar magnitude and reduce the carbon footprint of the transportation sector. To reduce processing cost and make this commercially viable, it is important to understand physical mechanisms driving microstructural changes. A mesoscale phase-field model seeded with experimentally measured microstructures and assessed thermodynamic and kinetic properties will be developed and exercised using HPC at PNNL. It will account for the effect of deformation, temperature, and chemistry on precipitation kinetics in nanocrystalline microstructures. Our objective is to understand this “stress-aging” coupling by performing parametric simulations with mesoscale models for a better understanding of GP zone and η' formation in nanocrystalline 7075 Al. This will help FT optimize processing schedules to achieve desired microstructures that increase both strength and ductility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗