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At least 379 records · Page 21

Analysis and forecast intercomparisons using the FGGE SOP-1 data base

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) data base has provided the research community with the most complete global coverage of meteorological informaiton since measurements were first taken. It is important to understand the characteristics of the FGGE data base in terms of its accuracy and representativeness compared to the true state of the atmosphere. The uncertainty associated with the initial conditions used in a numerical model plays a significant role in subsequent error growth as shown by predictability theory. The ultimate limit of forecast skill is directly related to the initial uncertainty. The accuracy of analyses using FGGE data base coupled with the errors due to modeling imperfections determines the present skill of numerical models. An estimte of initial uncertainty is determined by examining differences in several FGGE analyses. The estimate is then used to determine an ultimate limit of forecast skill from derived predictability error growth rates. Several different calculations of predictability error growth are also compared. Finally, present-day forecast skill using FGGE analyses is contrasted to the estimates of ultimate skill, and the partition of model error versus initial uncertainty is discussed.

Baumhefner, D. P.↗

User's manual for LINEAR, a FORTRAN program to derive linear aircraft models

This report documents a FORTRAN program that provides a powerful and flexible tool for the linearization of aircraft models. The program LINEAR numerically determines a linear system model using nonlinear equations of motion and a user-supplied nonlinear aerodynamic model. The system model determined by LINEAR consists of matrices for both state and observation equations. The program has been designed to allow easy selection and definition of the state, control, and observation variables to be used in a particular model.

Duke, Eugene L.↗

Development and validation of a general purpose linearization program for rigid aircraft models

This paper discusses a FORTRAN program that provides the user with a powerful and flexible tool for the linearization of aircraft models. The program LINEAR numerically determines a linear systems model using nonlinear equations of motion and a user-supplied, nonlinear aerodynamic model. The system model determined by LINEAR consists of matrices for both the state and observation equations. The program has been designed to allow easy selection and definition of the state, control, and observation variables to be used in a particular model. Also, included in the report is a comparison of linear and nonlinear models for a high-performance aircraft.

Duke, E. L.↗

Apollo cryogenic integrated systems program

The integrated systems program is capable of simulating both nominal and anomalous operation of the Apollo cryogenics storage system (CSS). Two versions of the program exist; one for the Apollo 14 configuration and the other for J Type Mission configurations. The program consists of two mathematical models which are dynamically coupled. A model of the CSS components and lines determines the oxygen and hydrogen flowrate from each storage tank given the tank pressures and temperatures, and the electrical power subsystem and environmental control subsystem flow demands. Temperatures and pressures throughout the components and lines are also determined. A model of the CSS tankage determines the pressure and temperatures in the tanks given the flowrate from each tank and the thermal environment. The model accounts for tank stretch and includes simplified oxygen tank heater and stratification routines. The program is currently operational on the Univac 1108 computer.

Seto, R. K. M.↗

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗

Determination of navigation FDI thresholds using a Markov model

A method for determining time-varying Failure Detection and Identification (FDI) thresholds for single sample decision functions is described in the context of a triplex system of inertial platforms. A cost function consisting of the probability of vehicle loss due to FDI decision errors is minimized. A discrete Markov model is constructed from which this cost can be determined as a function of the decision thresholds employed to detect and identify the first and second failures. Optimal thresholds are determined through the use of parameter optimization techniques. The application of this approach to threshold determination is illustrated for the Space Shuttle's inertial measurement instruments.

Walker, B. K.↗

Petronius Offshore Oil Field Case Study

This document is one of three offshore post-primary CO 2 enhanced oil recovery project case studies that compares the modeling results from an industry standard compositional simulator (“GEM”) and a variant of the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model (CO 2 Prophet Model), which determined the CO 2 Prophet Model was able to reasonably represent the performance of the CO 2 flood modeled using the more sophisticated GEM. This case study uses the Petronius oil field J-2 Sand using a quarter of a five-spot pattern design (one CO 2 injector well and five production wells), for a 40-year injection scenario. A version of the CO 2 Prophet Model is available on NETL’s website under the Collection Name: FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Cognac Offshore Oil Field Case Study

This document is one of three offshore post-primary CO 2 enhanced oil recovery project case studies that compares the modeling results from an industry standard compositional simulator (“GEM”) and a variant of the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model (CO 2 Prophet Model), which determined the CO 2 Prophet Model was able to reasonably represent the performance of the CO 2 flood modeled using the more sophisticated GEM. This case study uses the Cognac oil field J Sand, in the field’s Northeast fault block, using a line drive pattern design (one CO 2 injector and two production wells), for 10-year and 20-year injection scenarios. A version of the CO 2 Prophet Model is available on NETL’s website under the Collection Name: FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Horn Mountain Offshore Oil Field Case Study

This document is one of three offshore post-primary CO 2 enhanced oil recovery project case studies that compares the modeling results from an industry standard compositional simulator (“GEM”) and a variant of the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model (CO 2 Prophet Model), which determined the CO 2 Prophet Model was able to reasonably represent the performance of the CO 2 flood modeled using the more sophisticated GEM. This case study uses the Horn Mountain oil field NFB M Sand, in the field's North fault block, using three pairs of wells. Each pair of wells is a line drive pattern design (one CO 2 injector and one production well). Four 20-year injection scenarios were assessed, varying CO 2 injector well placements. A version of the CO 2 Prophet Model is available on NETL’s website under the Collection Name: FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

Predictabilty of time averages: The influence of the boundary forcing

The physical mechanisms through which changes in the boundary forcings of SST, soil moisture, albedo, sea ice, and snow influence the atmospheric circulation are discussed. Results of numerical experiments conducted with the GLAS climate model to determine the sensitivity of the model atmosphere to changes in boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, and albedo over limited regions are dicussed. It is found that changes in SST and soil moisture in the tropic produce large changes in the atmospheric circulation and rainfall over the tropics as well as over mid-latitudes.

Shukla, J.↗

Adaptive force-position control for teleoperated manipulators

An adaptive controller with self-tuning can be designed for teleoperated robotic manipulators by determining a time-series model for the function of the teleoperator. Specifically, the position and force exerted by the operator are modelled for determining the derived values for the trajectory of the end-effector of the manipulator. Thus, the adaptive controller can be designed by following the steps which have previously been presented for the controller design of the gross motion.

Koivo, A. J.↗

Evaluation of turbulence models in the PARC code for transonic diffuser flows

Flows through a transonic diffuser were investigated with the PARC code using five turbulence models to determine the effects of turbulence model selection on flow prediction. Three of the turbulence models were algebraic models: Thomas (the standard algebraic turbulence model in PARC), Baldwin-Lomax, and Modified Mixing Length-Thomas (MMLT). The other two models were the low Reynolds number k-epsilon models of Chien and Speziale. Three diffuser flows, referred to as the no-shock, weak-shock, and strong-shock cases, were calculated with each model to conduct the evaluation. Pressure distributions, velocity profiles, locations of shocks, and maximum Mach numbers in the duct were the flow quantities compared. Overall, the Chien k-epsilon model was the most accurate of the five models when considering results obtained for all three cases. However, the MMLT model provided solutions as accurate as the Chien model for the no-shock and the weak-shock cases, at a substantially lower computational cost (measured in CPU time required to obtain converged solutions). The strong shock flow, which included a region of shock-induced flow separation, was only predicted well by the two k-epsilon models.

Georgiadis, N. J.↗

Determining the gluonic gravitational form factors of the proton

The proton is one of the main building blocks of all visible matter in the Universe. Among its intrinsic properties are its electric charge, mass and spin. These properties emerge from the complex dynamics of its fundamental constituents—quarks and gluons—described by the theory of quantum chromodynamics. The electric charge and spin of protons, which are shared among the quarks, have been investigated previously using electron scattering. An example is the highly precise measurement of the electric charge radius of the proton. By contrast, little is known about the inner mass density of the proton, which is dominated by the energy carried by gluons. Gluons are hard to access using electron scattering because they do not carry an electromagnetic charge. Here we investigated the gravitational density of gluons using a small colour dipole, through the threshold photoproduction of the J/ψ particle. We determined the gluonic gravitational form factors of the proton from our measurement. Here we used a variety of models and determined, in all cases, a mass radius that is notably smaller than the electric charge radius. In some, but not all cases, depending on the model, the determined radius agrees well with first-principle predictions from lattice quantum chromodynamics. This work paves the way for a deeper understanding of the salient role of gluons in providing gravitational mass to visible matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Space Shuttle orbit determination using empirical force modeling of attitude maneuvers for the German MOMS-02/D2 mission

In the spring of 1993, the MOMS-02 (modular Optoelectronic Multispectral Scanner) camera, as part of the second German Spacelab mission aboard STS-55, successfully took digital threefold stereo images of the surface of the Earth. While the mission is experimental in nature, its primary goals are to produce high quality maps and three-dimensional digital terrain models of the Earth's surface. Considerable improvement in the quality of the terrain model can be attained if information about the position and attitude of the camera is included during the adjustment of the image data. One of the primary sources of error in the Shuttle's position is due to the significant attitude maneuvers conducted during the course of the mission. Various arcs, using actual Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRSS) Doppler data of STS-55, were processed to determine how effectively empirical force modeling could be used to solve for the radial, transverse, and normal components of the orbit perturbations caused by these routine maneuvers. Results are presented in terms of overlap-orbit differences in the three components. Comparisons of these differences, before and after the maneuvers are estimated, show that the quality of an orbit can be greatly enhanced with this technique, even if several maneuvers are present. Finally, a discussion is made of some of the difficulties encountered with this approach, and some ideas for future studies are presented.

Vonbraun, C.↗

An investigation of the thermoviscoplastic behavior of a metal matrix composite at elevated temperatures

This research investigates the response of a fiberless 13 layer hot isostatically pressed Ti-15-3 laminate to creep, constant strain rate, and cyclic constant strain rate loading at temperatures ranging from 482C to 649C. Creep stresses from 48 to 260 MPa and strain rates of .0001 to .01 m/m/sec were used. Material parameters for three unified constitutive models (Bodner-Partom, Miller, and Walker models) were determined for Ti-15-3 from the experimental data. Each of the three models was subsequently incorporated into a rule of mixtures and evaluated for accuracy and ease of use in predicting the thermoviscoplastic response of unidirectional metal matrix composite laminates (both 0 and 90). The laminates were comprised of a Ti-15-3 matrix with 29 volume percent SCS6 fibers. The predicted values were compared to experimentally determined creep and constant strain rate data. It was found that all three models predicted the viscoplastic response of the 0 specimens reasonably well, but seriously underestimated the viscoplastic response of the 90 specimens. It is believed that this discrepancy is due to compliant and/or weak fiber-matrix interphase. In general, it was found that of the three models studied, the Bodner-Partom model was easiest to implement, primarily because this model does not require the use of cyclic constant strain rate tests to determine the material parameters involved. However, the version of the Bodner-Partom model used in this study does not include back stress as an internal state variable, and hence may not be suitable for use with materials which exhibit a pronounced Baushinger effect. The back stress is accounted for in both the Walker and Miller models; determination of the material parameters associated with the Walker model was somewhat easier than in the Miller model.

Rogacki, John R.↗