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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1973

A model of the physical properties of comet Encke

The available observational data on periodic comet Encke were collected and interpreted in order to construct a model of the comet. The model is intended for use in the design of scientific experiments and spacecraft systems to be used on future missions to Encke. Numerical values and ranges of uncertainty are given for all of the important structural, compositional, and photometric parameters with references to the original research from which these were calculated or estimated.

Taylor, F. W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Identification of large space structures: A state-of-practice report

An outline of this work is presented. It begins with a schematic flow diagram and a logical flow diagram of the identification process for large space structures (LSS). Next, the task is defined by a structure model definition. A matrix polynomial formulation with a node displacement equation and a state variable formulation with node displacement and velocities are outlined. Further outlined is the identification of LSS on orbit; modeling errors and uncertainties; verification and validation of model; and noise, computations, and data collection.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic evaluation of SSME structural components

The application is described of Composite Load Spectra (CLS) and Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) family of computer codes to the probabilistic structural analysis of four Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) space propulsion system components. These components are subjected to environments that are influenced by many random variables. The applications consider a wide breadth of uncertainties encountered in practice, while simultaneously covering a wide area of structural mechanics. This has been done consistent with the primary design requirement for each component. The probabilistic application studies are discussed using finite element models that have been typically used in the past in deterministic analysis studies.

Rajagopal, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Observations of Energetic High Magnetic Field Pulsars with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

We report the detection of gamma-ray pulsations from the high-magnetic-field rotation-powered pulsar PSR J1119.6127 using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. The gamma-ray light curve of PSR J1119.6127 shows a single, wide peak offset from the radio peak by 0.43 +/- 0.02 in phase. Spectral analysis suggests a power law of index 1.0 +/- 0.3(+0.4 -0.2) with an energy cut-off at 0.8 +/- 0.2(+2.0 -0.5) GeV. The first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. We discuss the emission models of PSR J1119.6127 and demonstrate that despite the object's high surface magnetic field--near that of magnetars -- the field strength and structure in the gamma-ray emitting zone are apparently similar to those of typical young pulsars. Additionally, we present upper limits on the gamma-ray pulsed emission for the magnetically active PSR J1846.0258 in the supernova remnant Kesteven 75 and two other energetic high-Beta pulsars, PSRs J1718.3718 and J1734.3333. We explore possible explanations for the non-detection of these three objects, including peculiarities in their emission geometry.

Parent, D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Vertical Structure in Phytoplankton Growth and Productivity Inferred From Biogeochemical-Argo Floats and the Carbon-Based Productivity Model

Estimates of marine net primary production (NPP) commonly rely on limited in situ 14C incubations or satellite-based algorithms mainly constrained to the surface ocean. Here we combine data from biogeochemical Argo floats with a carbon-based productivity model (CbPM) to compute vertically-resolved estimates of NPP. Inferred NPP profiles derived by informing the CbPM with float-based, depth-resolved, bio-optical data are able to qualitatively reproduce the vertical structure in NPP inferred from in situ 14C incubations at various ocean regions. At station ALOHA, float-based estimates agree within uncertainty with productivity observations at depth, but underestimate surface NPP. We test the ability of the CbPM to infer the depth-resolved structure in NPP from bio-optical properties in the mixed layer, in similar fashion as how remote sensing algorithms of ocean productivity operate. In Southern Ocean waters, the depth-reconstructing implementation of the CbPM overestimates phytoplankton division rates and Chl:C below the mixed layer, resulting in artificially high subsurface NPP when compared with the fully float-informed implementation of the model. The CbPM subsurface extrapolation of phytoplankton Chl, Chl:C division rates, and NPP improves by accounting for deep nutrient (iron) stress impacts on photoacclimation in the Southern Ocean. This improvement is also observed in vertically- integrated NPP, where the mean bias between model implementations in depth-integrated productivity south of 30◦S is reduced by 62 % when account for deep iron limitation. Our results demonstrate that profiling data from biogeochemical Argo floats can serve to inform regional adjustments that lead to the improvement of marine productivity algorithms.

NPP↗

NASA NTRS1991

Robustified time-optimal control of uncertain structural dynamic systems

A new approach for computing open-loop time-optimal control inputs for uncertain linear dynamical systems is developed. In particular, the single-axis, rest-to-rest maneuvering problem of flexible spacecraft in the presence of uncertainty in model parameters is considered. Robustified time-optimal control inputs are obtained by solving a parameter optimization problem subject to robustness constraints. A simple dynamical system with a rigid-body mode and one flexible mode is used to illustrate the concept.

Liu, Qiang↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Quantification of uncertainties in coupled material degradation processes - High temperature, fatigue and creep

This paper describes the development of methodology that provides for quantification of uncertainties in lifetime strength of aerospace materials subjected to a number of diverse effects. A probabilistic material degradation model, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, has been postulated for lifetime strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems. The model includes effects that typically reduce lifetime strength and may include temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep and others. The paper also includes the analysis of experimental data from the open literature for Inconel 718. These data are used to provide an initial check for model validity, as well as for calibration of the model's empirical material constants. The model validity check and calibration is carried out for three effects, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue and creep.

Boyce, L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Uncertainty Analysis of Decomposing Polyurethane Foam

Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.

Hobbs, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Summer-Time Ozone and Precursor Species in the Southeast United States

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality and atmospheric chemistry. The understanding and ability to model the horizontal and vertical structure of O3 mixing ratios is difficult due to the complex formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large variability of O3. The Environmental Protection Agency has National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3 set at 75 ppb with future standards proposed to be as low as 65 ppb. These lower values emphasize the need to better understand/simulate the transport processes, emission sources, and chemical processes controlling precursor species (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO) which influence O3 mixing ratios. The uncertainty of these controlling variables is particularly large in the southeast United States (US) which is a region impacted by multiple different emission sources of precursor species (anthropogenic and biogenic) and transport processes resulting in complex spatio-temporal O3 patterns. During this work we will evaluate O3 and precursor species in the southeast US applying models, ground-based and airborne in situ data, and lidar observations. In the summer of 2013, the UAH O3 Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) (part of the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet)) measured vertical O3 profiles from the surface up to approximately 12 km. During this period, the lidar observed numerous periods of dynamic temporal and vertical O3 structures. In order to determine the sources/processes impacting these O3 mixing ratios we will apply the CTM GEOS-Chem (v9-02) at a 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg resolution. Using in situ ground-based (e.g., SEARCH Network, CASTNET), airborne (e.g., NOAA WP-3D - SENEX 2013, DC-8 - SEAC4RS), and TOLNet lidar data we will first evaluate the model to determine the capability of GEOS-Chem to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of O3 in the southeast US. Secondly, we will perform model sensitivity studies in order to quantify which emission sources (e.g., anthropogenic, biogenic, lighting, wildfire) and transport processes (e.g., stratospheric, long-range, local scale) are contributing to these TOLNet-observed dynamic O3 patterns. Results from the evaluation of the model and the study of sources/processes impacting observed O3 mixing ratios will be presented.

Optical Radar↗

NASA NTRS2021

Non-Causal Controller Approximation Methodology Augmented with Model Reference Control – Robust Design

This paper describes the development of a new control design methodology based on a non-causal controller structure and its approximation. The non-causal controller design is based on a loop shaping approach. Partial fraction decomposition is used, along with derivative approximations, to derive a proper transfer function design for a causal control structure. The premise for this non-causal control methodology is that the phase delay as a function of frequency ideally remains within approximately -90o, which tends to make the system robustly stable to uncertainties in the plant dynamics. To have a predictable control system response in lieu of the tolerance of this methodology to relatively large uncertainty in the plant dynamics, the approach is augmented with model reference control. The addition of model reference control can potentially further enhance the robustness of the design. A control system design example is presented in this paper, along with simulation results, to demonstrate the high degree of robustness of this non-causal methodology and its augmentation.

Control Systems↗

NASA NTRS1993

Integrated flight/propulsion control - Subsystem specifications for performance

A procedure is presented for calculating multiple subsystem specifications given a number of performance requirements on the integrated system. This procedure applies to problems where the control design must be performed in a partitioned manner. It is based on a structured singular value analysis, and generates specifications as magnitude bounds on subsystem uncertainties. The performance requirements should be provided in the form of bounds on transfer functions of the integrated system. This form allows the expression of model following, command tracking, and disturbance rejection requirements. The procedure is demonstrated on a STOVL aircraft design.

Neighbors, W. K.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Impact of Buoyancy and Flame Structure on Soot, Radiation and NOx Emissions from a Turbulent Diffusion Flame

It is hypothesized that the spatial structure of a turbulent diffusion flame plays an important role in determining the emissions of radiative energy, soot and NO, from a combustor. This structure, manifested in the two point statistics, is influenced by buoyancy. Radiation, soot and NOx emissions are the cumulative result of processes that occur throughout a flame. For example, radiation fluxes along a line of sight can be found from summing up the contributions from sources in individual pockets of hot soot that emit, and from sinks in cold soot that absorb. Soot and NOx are both the results of slow chemistry and are not equilibrium products. The time that is available for production and burnout is crucial in determining the eventual emissions of these pollutants. Turbulence models generally rely on a single point closure of the appropriate time averaged equations. Hence, spatial information is lost and needs to be modeled using solution variables such as turbulence kinetic energy and dissipation rate, often with the assumption of isotropy. However, buoyancy can affect the physical structure of turbulent flames and can change the spatial extent of soot bearing regions. Theoretical comparisons with models are best done in the limit of infinite Froude number because the inclusion of buoyancy in flow models introduces significant uncertainties. Hence, LII measurements of soot, measurements of radiation fluxes from soot, Particle Imaging Velocimetry (PIV) of the flow field and measurements of post flame NOX will be carried out on the NASA Lewis 2.2 sec drop tower and eventually on the parabolic flight aircraft. The drop rig will be a modified version of a unit that has been successfully used at Lewis in the past.

Kennedy, I. M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Systematic Differences between Satellite-Based Presipitation Climatologies over the Tropical Oceans

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. It is clear however that there still remain significant uncertainties with satellite precipitation retrievals which limit their usefulness for many purposes. Systematic differences i'A tropical precipitation estimates have been brought to light in comparison activities such as the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Project and more recent Wetnet Precipitation Intercomparison Project 3. These uncertainties are assuming more importance because of the demands for validation associated with global climate modeling and data assimilation methodologies. The objective of the present study is to determine the physical basis for systematic differences in spatial structure of tropical precipitation as portrayed by several different satellite-based data sets. The study is limited to oceanic regions only and deals primarily with aspects of spatial variability. We are specifically interested in why MSU channel 1 and GPI precipitation differences are so striking over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ and why they both differ from other microwave emission-based precipitation estimates from SSM/I and a scattering-based deep convective ice index from MSU channel 2. Our results to date have shown that MSU channel I precipitation estimates are biased high over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ because of two factors: (1) the hypersensitivity of this frequency to cloud water in contrast to falling rain drops, and (2) unaccounted for scattering effects by precipitation-size ice which depresses the signal of the liquid water emission. Likewise, cold cloud top climatologies such as the GPI show an excess (a deficit) in estimated rainfall over the E. Pacific ITCZ (Warm Pool region). We show that these algorithms need to account for regionally varying heights (or temperatures) at which tropical convection detrains to form cirrus shields. A second objective we pursue is to identify variations in the macroscale cloud physical and thermodynamic properties of precipitation regimes" and relate these differences to tropical dynamical mechanisms of tropical heat and moisture balance. Finally, we interpret the algorithm differences and their associations with tropical dynamics in terms of WCRP GPCP goals for constructing precipitation climatologies.

Robertson, Frankin R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Correlated Uncertainties in Radiation Shielding Effectiveness

The space radiation environment is composed of energetic particles which can deliver harmful doses of radiation that may lead to acute radiation sickness, cancer, and even death for insufficiently shielded crew members. Spacecraft shielding must provide structural integrity and minimize the risk associated with radiation exposure. The risk of radiation exposure induced death (REID) is a measure of the risk of dying from cancer induced by radiation exposure. Uncertainties in the risk projection model, quality factor, and spectral fluence are folded into the calculation of the REID by sampling from probability distribution functions. Consequently, determining optimal shielding materials that reduce the REID in a statistically significant manner has been found to be difficult. In this work, the difference of the REID distributions for different materials is used to study the effect of composition on shielding effectiveness. It is shown that the use of correlated uncertainties allows for the determination of statistically significant differences between materials despite the large uncertainties in the quality factor. This is in contrast to previous methods where uncertainties have been generally treated as uncorrelated. It is concluded that the use of correlated quality factor uncertainties greatly reduces the uncertainty in the assessment of shielding effectiveness for the mitigation of radiation exposure.

Werneth, Charles M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Accuracy Assessments of Cloud Droplet Size Retrievals from Polarized Reflectance Measurements by the Research Scanning Polarimeter

We present an algorithm for the retrieval of cloud droplet size distribution parameters (effective radius and variance) from the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) measurements. The RSP is an airborne prototype for the Aerosol Polarimetery Sensor (APS), which was on-board of the NASA Glory satellite. This instrument measures both polarized and total reflectance in 9 spectral channels with central wavelengths ranging from 410 to 2260 nm. The cloud droplet size retrievals use the polarized reflectance in the scattering angle range between 135deg and 165deg, where they exhibit the sharply defined structure known as the rain- or cloud-bow. The shape of the rainbow is determined mainly by the single scattering properties of cloud particles. This significantly simplifies both forward modeling and inversions, while also substantially reducing uncertainties caused by the aerosol loading and possible presence of undetected clouds nearby. In this study we present the accuracy evaluation of our algorithm based on the results of sensitivity tests performed using realistic simulated cloud radiation fields.

Rainbow↗

NASA NTRS2018

3D Mapping of the Neutral X-Ray Absorption in the Local Interstellar Medium: The Gaia and XMM-Newton Synergy

We present a three-dimensional map of the hydrogen density distribution in the Galactic interstellar medium. The hydrogen-equivalent column densities were obtained from the Exploring the X-ray Transient and variable Sky project (EXTRAS) which provides equivalent NH values from X-ray spectral fits of observations within the XMM-Newton Data Release. EXTRAS include multiple fits for each source, allowing an accurate determination of the equivalent column densities, which depends on the continuum modelling of the spectra. A cross-correlation between the EXTRAS catalogue and the first Gaia Data Release was performed in order to obtain accurate parallax and distance measurements. We use a Bayesian method explained in Rezaei Kh. et al. (2017) in order to predict the most probable distribution of the density at any arbitrary point, even for lines of sight along which there are no initial observation. The resulting map shows small-scale density structures which could not have been modelled by using analytic density profiles. In this paper, we present a proof of concept of the kind of science possible with the synergy of these catalogues. However, given the systematic uncertainties connected to the source identification and to the dependence of NH on the spectral model, the present maps should be considered qualitatively at this point.

Gatuzz, Efrain↗